`Theon's Mistake

[Dorian Martell]

Yes.

Why?

[Universal Sword Donor]

*Rolls eyes*

Theon's mistake was his ambition exceeded his loyalty.

Winterfell is a nice prize but not the key to controlling the north. As you may have noticed by ADWD the castle currently has 6000 northmen and Freys in it. If Theon and Asha had stayed please tell me how 50 or even 500 Ironborn could defend it against that alone?

If the Ironborn brought enough men to defend Winterfell they'd never be able to keep them supplied. They'd be fighting deep in land on enemy territory and would be ground down to nothing by attrition. If Robb had survived the Ironborn would be facing a veteran army with a killed commander who knew the land and with men fighting for their homes. If he didn't then the Iron Throne would see Bolton had as many men as he needed to repel the Ironborn or at least keep them locked in perpetual exhausting warfare.

And even if they did win they wouldn't have the north, they'd just have a castle, deep in land, surrounded by irrevocably hostile enemies in other castles.

This is a mistake so many conquerors make, they think if they take some capital city the enemy must surrender. Russia did not surrender when Napoleon took Moscow. America did not surrender when the British took Washington in 1812. Persia did not defeat the Athenians when they took Athens.

Holding Winterfell would not win the war, it just puts the ironborn further from their strength and deeper in the north's power.

Also the first line sounds like as is the vile attempt of a Theon-fan trying to put down other characters to excuse their pet faves screwup in a piece of propaganda and twisting of facts and words that would make the tabloids blush.

Terrible terrible thread.

Defending WF with 500 men would be quite easy. You think anyone actually wants to storm that SOB?

First exterior wall is 80 feet high. Ladders would suck and are easily defended against. Using a battering ram against the gate gets you hot oil, arrows, rocks, and an open door to a wide moat if you succeed. Now you have to find a way to cross the moat to a closed drawbridge. If you get past the, you still have to either scale a 100 ft wall or fight your way through *another* gate while exposed to arrows, rocks, boiling oil again. Then you have to clean out the entire castle. Only other alternative is using trebuchets or other siege engines to take down the walls of WF, which is something I think we can agree the northmen would be loathe to do.

Defending WF is not the problem. Defending it and getting resupplied is the issue, and that is something the IB could not have done.

[Fear of Drowning]

Defending WF is not the problem. Defending it and getting resupplied is the issue, and that is something the IB could not have done.

I was of the impression that Winterfell held huge quantities of food. You know, for the winter when nothing can be grown.

Even if not, so long as Theon held Stark kids as hostages the Northmen would not starve him.

[Victor227]

I was of the impression that Winterfell held huge quantities of food. You know, for the winter when nothing can be grown.

Even if not, so long as Theon held Stark kids as hostages the Northmen would not starve him.

Losing the Stark kids kind of put a damper on that. When Asha came the situation was rather untenable. It is true though, that if Theon had been given a few hundred extra men from Asha, he could have held that castle until the end of time against whatever the Northmen threw at him. Winterfell is the North's strongest castle. By contrast, the Dreadfort apparently has survived sieges ranging into the years, and as we know from Bran's PoV, the castle is ready for winter, as they've even had their fall feast.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I was of the impression that Winterfell held huge quantities of food. You know, for the winter when nothing can be grown.

Even if not, so long as Theon held Stark kids as hostages the Northmen would not starve him.

It does, but you still have to be resupplied at some point. And frankly, at some point the North has to prevent the IB from being resupplied. Heirs to the north vs the king's seat and legitimacy?

As long as Robb is alive, they starve them 10/10 times.

[Oafkeeper]

Defending WF with 500 men would be quite easy. You think anyone actually wants to storm that SOB?

First exterior wall is 80 feet high. Ladders would suck and are easily defended against. Using a battering ram against the gate gets you hot oil, arrows, rocks, and an open door to a wide moat if you succeed. Now you have to find a way to cross the moat to a closed drawbridge. If you get past the, you still have to either scale a 100 ft wall or fight your way through *another* gate while exposed to arrows, rocks, boiling oil again. Then you have to clean out the entire castle. Only other alternative is using trebuchets or other siege engines to take down the walls of WF, which is something I think we can agree the northmen would be loathe to do.

Defending WF is not the problem. Defending it and getting resupplied is the issue, and that is something the IB could not have done.

Doubtful.

The walls are impressive but 500 men is not a lot to hold them. I was doing research for a book lately and the sources I read said you only needed to have a three or four to one advantage to storm the walls. The North can easily get ten to one odds against any army the Ironborn can hope to feed. It's also a matter of stress. With those numbers an attacking army can keep up the pressure, rotating men in and out while the Ironborn have to constantly be on guard. Once they break one door or grab one bit of wall the Ironborn will be in serious trouble. And while the walls are high, building a taller siege tower is historically doable. There's no shortage of wood nearby and once you have that, the advantage of a taller archery platform is incredible.

Also this is about Theon's "genius" plan and Theon didn't kick out the residents so, you know, betrayal.

And what exactly is the point of trying to hold a castle that won't be relieved? Any Ironborn army big enough to rescue Winterfell is going to be seen as soon as it lands and the Northerners will cut it apart before it reaches Winterfell because they're fighting on their own ground. It's the same reason Jon told Stannis not to march on the Dreadfort.

[Oafkeeper]

What an exaggeration. :rolleyes:

I'm sure you think the miller's children ran onto Theon's dagger.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Doubtful.

The walls are impressive but 500 men is not a lot to hold them. I was doing research for a book lately and the sources I read said you only needed to have a three or four to one advantage to storm the walls. The North can easily get ten to one odds against any army the Ironborn can hope to feed. It's also a matter of stress. With those numbers an attacking army can keep up the pressure, rotating men in and out while the Ironborn have to constantly be on guard. Once they break one door or grab one bit of wall the Ironborn will be in serious trouble. And while the walls are high, building a taller siege tower is historically doable. There's no shortage of wood nearby and once you have that, the advantage of a taller archery platform is incredible.

Also this is about Theon's "genius" plan and Theon didn't kick out the residents so, you know, betrayal.

And what exactly is the point of trying to hold a castle that won't be relieved? Any Ironborn army big enough to rescue Winterfell is going to be seen as soon as it lands and the Northerners will cut it apart before it reaches Winterfell because they're fighting on their own ground. It's the same reason Jon told Stannis not to march on the Dreadfort.

You didn't ask about holding it. You asked about defending it.

Dragonstone isn't as formidable as WF and Stannis' 'token' garrison managed to cause 1000 deaths. Depending on token ( ie the 25 at DF Arnolf mentioned or the 200 we see at Riverrun described as too much" ) garrison size, that was anywhere from 5x-10x or more the casualty ratio. Rodrik only has 2,000 guys.

And siege towers are only go to help on the outer wall unless you decide to build one in the moat. Sieging WF is by far the best option.

Theon's "genius" plan is being entirely reworked in the thread, so the betrayal aspect isn't realistic imo. If Asha sent him the 500 men, he'd pull a blackfish and get rid of everyone not needed.

[Garbad]

Hold Winterfell until what? Winter? Or when the armies come home and swamp his 500?

You have to view taking Winterfell in the context of the larger war. The Ironborn are not trying to occupy the north, they are trying to raid it, and in the long run, get their independence. Spending resources on WF doesn't help either goal. Better a smash and grab and have two little lordlings to negotiate peace with, to crush northern morale, and cost nothing. Then go back to raiding, and eliminating any fleet that could threaten their independence. That's their best chance at reaching their goals, not trying to hold the north.

[Fear of Drowning]

Hold Winterfell until what? Winter? Or when the armies come home and swamp his 500?

You have to view taking Winterfell in the context of the larger war. The Ironborn are not trying to occupy the north, they are trying to raid it, and in the long run, get their independence. Spending resources on WF doesn't help either goal. Better a smash and grab and have two little lordlings to negotiate peace with, to crush northern morale, and cost nothing. Then go back to raiding, and eliminating any fleet that could threaten their independence. That's their best chance at reaching their goals, not trying to hold the north.

Winter would wreck a besieging army while the springs and heated walls keep the Ironborn toasty warm. Holding till winter would serve well. The armies aren't coming home. Victarion and Moat Cailin see to that. 500 men are not significant resources for the Ironborn. A Winterfell held by 500 Ironborn under siege costs the north far more resources than it costs the Ironborn. Holding Winterfell makes raiding easier for the rest of the Ironborn because it ties up the besieging forces who would otherwise be free to oppose raiders. Winterfell is not the entire north. The whole north is hard to hold, but Winterfell is easy. It is a castle, that is what it is designed for.

Generally, hold Winterfell until Robb is driven to the negotiating table. Then it is one more bargaining chip, and the holding has served to damage northern morale much more than burning and running would have done as well as tying up whatever forces besiege Winterfell.

As an aside, Tywin seemed to think Balon would be able to largely control the north until the spring when Tyrion and Lannister forces would be sent to drive him out. I think this 'the north cannot be held' stuff is exaggerated and mostly stems from the show.

[The Wolves]

As an aside, Tywin seemed to think Balon would be able to largely control the north until the spring when Tyrion and Lannister forces would be sent to drive him out. I think this 'the north cannot be held' stuff is exaggerated and mostly stems from the show.

Why do you think "the North cannot be held" is an exaggeration?

I remember seeing that GRRM once said that "not anyone can hold the North" if someone has the quote than help me out if I'm wrong than my bad.

But in the world book we learn that a lot of houses vied for control of the North but none of them ever did except the Starks and that took centuries/thousands of years of wars and constant rebellions. So I'm wondering how do you think Theon could have held the North without any Starks.

And Tywin knows next to shit about the North he was banking on the northern winter kicking the Ironborn out.

[Seaworth'sShipmate]

Absolutely Theon taking Winterfell was a huge mistake. He knew he could not defend it, and could not even if Asha decided to seriously reinforce it. He is far from supply lines, and all the Northmen had to do was starve him out.

He was arrogant and selfish, not fleeing with his men and Asha when he had the chance.

[devilish]

Winter would wreck a besieging army while the springs and heated walls keep the Ironborn toasty warm. Holding till winter would serve well. The armies aren't coming home. Victarion and Moat Cailin see to that. 500 men are not significant resources for the Ironborn. A Winterfell held by 500 Ironborn under siege costs the north far more resources than it costs the Ironborn. Holding Winterfell makes raiding easier for the rest of the Ironborn because it ties up the besieging forces who would otherwise be free to oppose raiders. Winterfell is not the entire north. The whole north is hard to hold, but Winterfell is easy. It is a castle, that is what it is designed for.

Generally, hold Winterfell until Robb is driven to the negotiating table. Then it is one more bargaining chip, and the holding has served to damage northern morale much more than burning and running would have done as well as tying up whatever forces besiege Winterfell.

As an aside, Tywin seemed to think Balon would be able to largely control the north until the spring when Tyrion and Lannister forces would be sent to drive him out. I think this 'the north cannot be held' stuff is exaggerated and mostly stems from the show.

You do notice that ironborn still need to eat don't you?

And Robb had been at the negotiating table long before the Greyjoys attack. His deal was the best the Greyjoys could ever achieve. Balon could have been king with the North protecting his arse from future invasion. He wont achieve anything better from anyone.

[devilish]

Who's this king? And why would the Iron Islands accept it just because a king of another place likes it?

The iron islands are the bullied boy of Westeros. If the 7 kingdoms sneeze, the iron islands will get hurt. They hold little wealth and their soldiers are practically useless outside sea.

Theon would be for the Iron Islands similar to what client state kings were during Roman times. They were accountable to the big boss but at least he was one of them. Believe me, its better for them to have Theon as lord then some foreigner sitting as lord of the iron islands. He wouldn't understand their ways and at the first sign of trouble his king would come with an enormous army and kill everyone up. Can you what Tywin's reaction would have been if lets say he appointed Lancel as lord of the iron islands and they send him back in pieces?

[Sullen]

You do notice that ironborn still need to eat don't you?

And Robb had been at the negotiating table long before the Greyjoys attack. His deal was the best the Greyjoys could ever achieve. Balon could have been king with the North protecting his arse from future invasion. He wont achieve anything better from anyone.

The North doesn't have a fleet on the Western coast, they can't protect the Iron Isles from shit.

The best deal Balon could have achieved is to come back into the fold of the Seven Kingdoms, conditionally keep the land he captured on the western coast... such a thing would have been feasible if he didn't fuck over all of his people by declaring independence, making himself the enemy of the Iron Throne.

[James Arryn]

I think Asha was sincere. I am less sure she was correct, but I dn't think her position was driven by personal ambition.

[Steelborn]

Theon would be for the Iron Islands similar to what client state kings were during Roman times. They were accountable to the big boss but at least he was one of them. Believe me, its better for them to have Theon as lord then some foreigner sitting as lord of the iron islands. He wouldn't understand their ways and at the first sign of trouble his king would come with an enormous army and kill everyone up. Can you what Tywin's reaction would have been if lets say he appointed Lancel as lord of the iron islands and they send him back in pieces?

That would never happen. Why would a foreigner be appointed as lord of the Iron Islands?

[UnFit Finlay]

The iron islands are the bullied boy of Westeros. If the 7 kingdoms sneeze, the iron islands will get hurt. They hold little wealth and their soldiers are practically useless outside sea.

Theon would be for the Iron Islands similar to what client state kings were during Roman times. They were accountable to the big boss but at least he was one of them. Believe me, its better for them to have Theon as lord then some foreigner sitting as lord of the iron islands. He wouldn't understand their ways and at the first sign of trouble his king would come with an enormous army and kill everyone up. Can you what Tywin's reaction would have been if lets say he appointed Lancel as lord of the iron islands and they send him back in pieces?

Right. And they would, because the Iron Born would rather die than accept a soft green lander as their ruler. You make them sound like they are meek cowards, terrified of the crown, when they fight against the odds regularly. They also didn't believe that Theon was one of them. That was the whole problem. How do you think they'd feel about him if he took up arms against them?

Aside from that, the premise is deeply flawed because Robb was only one of several Kings and he lacked the strength to secure the borders of his own Kingdom, much less enforce a Puppet Regime on the Iron Born. If Theon had stayed loyal to Robb, he'd be only slightly better off than Asha is at present, and that's assuming he didn't die at the Red Wedding or he wasn't just held prisoner in Pyke for the duration of the war.

[INCBlackbird]

*Rolls eyes*

Theon's mistake was his ambition exceeded his loyalty.

Winterfell is a nice prize but not the key to controlling the north. As you may have noticed by ADWD the castle currently has 6000 northmen and Freys in it. If Theon and Asha had stayed please tell me how 50 or even 500 Ironborn could defend it against that alone?

If the Ironborn brought enough men to defend Winterfell they'd never be able to keep them supplied. They'd be fighting deep in land on enemy territory and would be ground down to nothing by attrition. If Robb had survived the Ironborn would be facing a veteran army with a killed commander who knew the land and with men fighting for their homes. If he didn't then the Iron Throne would see Bolton had as many men as he needed to repel the Ironborn or at least keep them locked in perpetual exhausting warfare.

And even if they did win they wouldn't have the north, they'd just have a castle, deep in land, surrounded by irrevocably hostile enemies in other castles.

This is a mistake so many conquerors make, they think if they take some capital city the enemy must surrender. Russia did not surrender when Napoleon took Moscow. America did not surrender when the British took Washington in 1812. Persia did not defeat the Athenians when they took Athens.

Holding Winterfell would not win the war, it just puts the ironborn further from their strength and deeper in the north's power.

Also the first line sounds like as is the vile attempt of a Theon-fan trying to put down other characters to excuse their pet faves screwup in a piece of propaganda and twisting of facts and words that would make the tabloids blush.

Terrible terrible thread.

taking Winterfell was never about Theon's ambitions and it wasn't at all a rational choice. it was an emotion choice, Theon was attached to Winterfell and couldn't part from it, that's why he didn't burn it down!

[Maid So Fair]

So, if it would be impossible or ruinously difficult to properly reinforce Theon, why didn't Asha say this? The northern soldiers we see in Dance have been levied in the years between Clash and Dance as a result of the Ironborn invasion. There would be plenty of time to reinforce Winterfell before fresh northern troops are raised, raising forces takes time. I find it completely unbelievable that Robb left enough forces behind to effectively cover all the huge lands surrounding Winterfell and all the possible approaches. Why would he do this? Why not take all those troops with him? Your suggestion that reinforcements for Winterfell would have been opposed by significant forces is not in the text.

It wouldn't be impossible, just costly and ultimately pointless. They can't ever hold it. Years don't pass between ACOK and Dance, the 5 year gap has been scrapped. We know that hardly any soldiers make it back from the South so we know that the troops we see in Winterfell (and alleged to exist elsewhere) have been in the North all along, waiting for someone to draw upon them. We know Manderly has a sizable force of armed knights and we know that Lady Dustin/Ryswell, the most threatened by the IB invasion held back with sending men to Robb. He didn't take everybody because he was pressed for time, but that was a long time ago.

There's no need to cover every possible approach to WF. Unlike Theon's merry band of 20 men on horses, any reinforcements will be on foot and forced to march across half the hostile North, which will take a week or two at least. Thinking that the Northmen will not follow their every move is a fantasy - they know the land better than any IB ever will. There are basically two scenarios - someone assembles a reasonable force (they don't even need numerical superiority here) of fighting men and uses their knowledge of the local terrain to ambush the IB en route OR they don't have enough and just send some archers to bleed the IB on the march. Whatever happens, however, EVENTUALLY the North will gather enough men and any further reinforcement will become impossible and they'll just wait for the casltle to succumb to siege/storm it if they have enough men.

An effective siege requires significantly more men than are in the garrison you oppose. Otherwise they sally when your guard is down. Ironborn are better equipped than northmen to boot - plate vs northern mail. Unless of course the northmen put significant numbers of their precious cavalry in the besieging force. Mounted troops are useless at storming a castle and cavalry used for the siege are tied up. The northmen are too proud to ignore a Winterfell held by their enemies, and if they did there would be constant raids launched against the surrounding smallfolk.

IB have plate and the Northmen don't? Do you have a quote to back that up?

Cavalry, naturally, wouldn't be used in the siege but to prevent any possible reinforcements. The IB are vulnerable every time they leave WF for whatever reason. The North will siege the castle, tomorrow, in a week or a month's time - it makes no difference because eventually it will happen.

Balon expected Robb to turn around without Theon taking Winterfell. That is why Moat Cailin was so important in his plans. He expected battle there.

And Robb wasn't going to give it to him, at least not in the way he expected. There's also the Manderly fleet that didn't feature in his plans just yet - they can conceivably just bypass MC by sea.

The likes of Roose Bolton would have been willing to join the Ironborn for sure if the Ironborn were clearly winning and they saw profit in it. I think you make the northern lords too modern in your mind. They are not by and large nationalists, but have a parochial concern for their own lands (not the entire north). Those based inland, bar the Starks, have not been invaded. Starks, Greyjoys both are outsiders. If the Greyjoys look set to win and offer you a better position why not side with them?

Being Prince of Winterfell doesn't require the love or respect of the smallfolk under Winterfells dominion.

They don't need to be nationalists to want to protect their and their neighbour's lands. Al their families are intermarried. They also can't afford to let the IB get too strong as that in turn endangers their own lands and alienates every single one of their potential allies. What could Balon possibly offer them? Promise to only reave their lands occasionally? Starks are outsiders in the North? WTF? They ruled the place for 8000 years. They seem to have lost all power and influence yet half the North is riding to war to rescue a Stark girl and Roose can't securely claim the North without her.