Stannis' Natural Defenses

[Brother Seamus]

If the army facing stannis isrroose's, i feel like its too simples. Roose seems too bright too fall for the hole trap

Not Roose, or even Bolton men. Freys and Manderlys, under separate command. Freys led by Hosteen IIRC, and the Manderlys by the Manderly son. There's something suggesting Ramsey is leading Bolton men behind them as well, I think. I can't cite text, but my impression is that the Freys are in front, Manderlys behind them, and Ramsay even further behind, as if he'd started a half-day later or something. Really not sure where this comes from but that's the image in my head.

And, yes, using the lake as a trap is mostly what Stannis is referring to, but more generally using the snow, the lakes, the ice, the trees, etc to set a trap, based on some kind of deception. Luring the opposing cavalry onto the ice is surely one element, but I expect we'll also see northmen positioned in the surrounding forest hidden among the trees, maybe under the snow, things like that. And, I expect they will use the snow as camouflage in the village itself. I also think drawing the enemy into the narrow strip of land between the lakes in order to both limit the effectiveness of greater numbers (the lakes protect Stannis' flanks) and later prevent escape if things go well will be part of the plan.

I doubt Stannis will position a substantial number of men on the island, because they could easily end up stuck there if too much ice falls through. Maybe though.

[Bironic]

Not Roose, or even Bolton men. Freys and Manderlys, under separate command. Freys led by Hosteen IIRC, and the Manderlys by the Manderly son. There's something suggesting Ramsey is leading Bolton men behind them as well, I think. I can't cite text, but my impression is that the Freys are in front, Manderlys behind them, and Ramsay even further behind, as if he'd started a half-day later or something. Really not sure where this comes from but that's the image in my head.

I don't think that Wyman has taken any sons with him. Roose says that Wyman hasn't brought hostages to Winterfell. A son would be a good hostage. Furthermore his son is quite fat, Theon would have certainly spotted him if he was around.

I think the Manderly Force is led by an experienced household knight, an equivalent of Walton Steelshanks, but loyal to the Manderlys instead of the Boltons.

[Brother Seamus]

I don't think that Wyman has taken any sons with him. Roose says that Wyman hasn't brought hostages to Winterfell. A son would be a good hostage. Furthermore his son is quite fat, Theon would have certainly spotted him if he was around.

I think the Manderly Force is led by an experienced household knight, an equivalent of Walton Steelshanks, but loyal to the Manderlys instead of the Boltons.

that sounds correct now that you say it. in any case, I think it was clear that wyman stayed in winterfell when a contingent of his troops followed the freys out.

[Jazzman]

I don't think that Wyman has taken any sons with him. Roose says that Wyman hasn't brought hostages to Winterfell. A son would be a good hostage. Furthermore his son is quite fat, Theon would have certainly spotted him if he was around.

I think the Manderly Force is led by an experienced household knight, an equivalent of Walton Steelshanks, but loyal to the Manderlys instead of the Boltons.

Or could Robett Glover lead the Manderly force?

[Bironic]

Or could Robett Glover lead the Manderly force?

That could be an option, because he is a competent battle commander.

Although I think not, because Roose would suspect Manderly even more if Robett is around. Afterall Robett is a survivor of Duskendale, and perhaps he has found out that Duskendale was a trap created by Roose & Tywin. Robett was also attempting to recruit men for war, assumably against Boltons, Ironborn, Freys and Lannisters, he has a reputation of a die hard Stark loyalist. Not exactly the man I would bring to a meeting with Roose Bolton.

I think Robett is on the way to Skagos with Davos, to ensure that Rickon is brought back to white harbor. Robett is a good man for "commando" operations like the one at Harrenhal, he certainly was on a ship before (deepwood motte is close to the sea), and he could act as a local guide for Davos. Furthermore the skagosi will trust him more than a southerner like Davos.

[bemused]

Robbett was also not in Winterfell, as Bironic points out.. Umber men would be the best guides for Davos.

I think Stannis' plan involves the lakes, too .. except that quite a few people who have lived in places where ice fishing is a practice have pointed out that the ice reforms very quickly , so it remains to be seen what GRRM will do with that. He could just ignore it..it is his world .. or Stannis may be able to scout out the Freys' approach and have hole choppers at work ... or GRRM may have some entirely different wrinkle planned.

Robbett, I suspect, is busy with Northern plans - featuring infiltration of Winterfell via the crypts - separate and apart from Stannis' efforts, and not intended to give Stannis rule over WF.

[mushroomshirt]

Robbett was also not in Winterfell, as Bironic points out.. Umber men would be the best guides for Davos.

...

Robbett, I suspect, is busy with Northern plans - featuring infiltration of Winterfell via the crypts - separate and apart from Stannis' efforts, and not intended to give Stannis rule over WF.

Or... Robett is the Hooded Man In Winterfell ;) Which may be consistent with the second quoted line from your post.

[bemused]

I think the HM is Benjen :D .. but he and Robbett are working hand in glove.

[aFeastForDragons]

In one of Asha's chapters they lose a horse and carriage into a deep pond that was concealed by snow or something. Its a hint of what could happen when the Frey cavalry charge try to run down Stannis's army.

If it was earlier books than Manderly's forces would get there first and fall into the ice but I don't see really left turn twists happening in the last two books.

[Iron Maiden Islands]

Why is there so much sarcasm in this thread?

because everyone is losing their damn mind waiting for the book to come out haha

[Jazzman]

because everyone is losing their damn mind waiting for the book to come out haha

That is precisely what's happening!

[Starks of Winter]

because everyone is losing their damn mind waiting for the book to come out haha

Yep, FFS, when it coming out!!! Soo many questions to be answered.

[~No One~]

In Theon's sample chapter from The Winds of Winter, Stannis mentions that he doesn't have any natural defenses. "YET". Any thoughts on what he means by this? Using the snow to his advantage? I don't know.

He is clearly referring to his face.

Why is there so much sarcasm in this thread?

Re: bolded part - change word to "every".

[CreativeName]

"[...] Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

"The ground?" said Theon. "What ground? Here? This misbegotten tower? This wretched little village? You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses."

"Yet."

"Yet," both ravens screamed in unison. Then one quorked, and the other muttered, "Tree, tree, tree."

I don't think making holes in the ice is necessarily required for Stannis' advantage to play out. Stannis mentions that his army has to fight on foot, while large parts of Bolton's forces (Frey / Manderly / Ramsay) will fight on horseback.

[stannis:] "His [bolton's] knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot."

Of course, I'm not a physics expert, but I would assume a heavy cavalry charge will put more pressure on the ice than stationary pikemen and bowmen. Especially, if Stannis positions his forces on dry land, for example on the islet with the weirwood tree and on the opposite side of the lakeshore. The enemy advances across the lake and breaks through the ice, or faces opposition first and then breaks through the ice.

"Yet" may simply refer to the fact that once the ice breaks under heavy cavalry, Stannis will have his natural defenses, by essentially doing nothing.

The ravens (Bran / BR) quorking "Tree, tree, tree" might mean they have to hurry to get to the small island with the weirwood tree before the enemy arrives.

I also think there's not enough time to prepare the surface of the frozen lake by making multiple holes or cracks (other than the small fishing holes already existing), since there seems to be a real sense of urgency in Theon's WoW chapter. Multiple times Stannis worries the enemy could be on them any moment:

"Lord Bolton's men will be here sooner than we would wish." [...]

"Lord Bolton may be on us soon." [...]

"Roose Bolton's men may well be on their way to attack us even now, however, so you must understand if I skimp on certain courtesies." [...]

"Lord Bolton could be on us any moment, [...]"

I presume Bolton's forces will attack during or immediately after Theon's (cancelled) execution at the small island with the weirwood tree. At least in the same chapter. They might even be the reason for stopping the execution. (In that case, Bran / Bloodraven get in touch with Theon during the battle.)

I also don't think Stannis necessarily has to await the enemy, hiding his men in different positions around the lake with a very elaborate strategy, as some have suggested. The WoW chapter seems to suggest that Stannis doesn't exactly know when the enemy will arrive. I assume he simply plans to get his men in position as soon as the foe arrives and thereby luring his enemies on the frozen lake, hoping they'll break through.

[Knight of the Teabags]

I don't think that Wyman has taken any sons with him. Roose says that Wyman hasn't brought hostages to Winterfell. A son would be a good hostage. Furthermore his son is quite fat, Theon would have certainly spotted him if he was around.

I think the Manderly Force is led by an experienced household knight, an equivalent of Walton Steelshanks, but loyal to the Manderlys instead of the Boltons.

Wyman has a cousin Ser Marlon Manderly who is the commander of the garrison at the New Castle and is arguably the best candidate to lead. Ser Marlon is also probably a good candidate from a story telling perspective too as he is described as well over six foot tall and wears a rather cool suit of silvered armour with seaweed engravings and a Merling King helmet.

[mbuehner]

There is also a very famous battle in Russian history that is directly analogous:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_on_the_Ice_(Lake_Peipus)

On April 5, 1242. Alexander, intending to fight in a place of his own choosing, retreated in an attempt to draw the often over-confident Crusaders onto the frozen lake. The crusader forces likely numbered around 2600, including 800 Danish and German knights, 100 Teutonic knights, 300 Danes, 400 Germans and 1000 Estonian infantry.^[1] The Russians fielded around 5,000 men: Alexander and his brother Andrei's bodyguards (druzhina), totalling around 1,000, plus 2000 militia of Novgorod, 1400 Finno-Ugrian tribesman and 600 horse archers.^[1]

The Teutonic knights and crusaders charged across the lake and reached the enemy, but were held up by the infantry of the Novgorod militia. This caused the momentum of the crusader attack to slow. The battle was fierce, with the allied Russians fighting the Teutonic and crusader troops on the frozen surface of the lake. A little after two hours of close quarters fighting, Alexander ordered the left and right wings of his army (including cavalry) to enter the battle. The cavalry included some Mongol horse archers. The Teutonic and crusader troops by that time were exhausted from the constant struggle on the slippery surface of the frozen lake. The Crusaders started to retreat in disarray deeper onto the ice, and the appearance of the fresh Novgorod cavalry made them retreat in panic. The Teutonic knights and crusaders attempted to rally and regroup at the far side of the lake, however, the thin ice began to give way and cracked under the weight of their heavy armour, and many knights and crusaders drowned

I wouldn't be surprised if this is pretty much exactly how Stannis's battle goes down, with the Manderly cavalry acting as the final nail in the coffin the Novgorod cavalry did.

[Zachhulsey11]

The Manderleys will hold back. But I believe the Frey commander is not the sharpest sword and might well fall for such a tactic. Rushing in to attack. Also the Freys are Southrons and not used to snow, ice or frozen lakes.

The Freys are from the south, Aye, but so are the troops from Dragonstone and the surrounding area. Basically, it will be a game of "who has better northmen".

[Lord of the Vale]

He can drill more holes in the ice and bulid fortifcations of snow

[Roose on the Loose]

There are already holes in the ice from ice fishing. Stannis could dig moats between the two lakes turning the village into an island.

It's a clever notion, but digging frozen ground with pick and shovel is pretty futile. I would think the ground would be frozen pretty deep by now. And starving men don't have as much energy.

[Federico]

With so much snow fall accumulated on the lakes, I wonder just how different they are to fight upon compared with snow covered ground.

I'm doubtful as to how much BUILDING (eg snow walls) Stannis can afford from his men given the severely constrained food supplies.

I've had an idea but I don't know if the tech, materials, and experience are available in this context. Stannis would have men pump water out of the lake, spreading it on the ice, transforming the snow on it into treacherous footing for the enemy. Not just slippery, but a rough, uneven surface that would hinder men and horse from moving easily. Get them on this surface with no cover save the shields individuals carry, and Stannis's archers can assault them indefinitely from the tree lines.

Have there been hand pumps in Westeros? Conduits could be cut from trees/limbs. I doubt they'd have enough buckets. But even so, that would be slow and much more labor intensive.

Then again, maybe Rhollor might be persuaded to yield the same result if they burn Theon. Doubt it!!