Complete rundown of army sizes and losses throughout the books (long)

[Free Northman Reborn]

I actually think this makes a good argument for two things.

1. The 18,000 included the Manderlys, so Roose only lost 6,000 men.

2. People understood Roose was doing, roughly, what Robb ordered, so the blame couldn't fall on Roose without falling on the king, so people kept shut about it (Robb won his battle anyway).

"Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter, but only two in ten were coming back."

Theon Greyjoy, Dance with Dragons

That's 19500. Not 18000.

[Chaircat Meow]

"Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter, but only two in ten were coming back."

Theon Greyjoy, Dance with Dragons

That's 19500. Not 18000.

Well Roose sure took a lot of causalities then.

19,500 + 4,000 = 23,500. We know about 5,800 men left, either with Robb or remained at the Twins. So Roose had about 17,700 at the GF on your view, and lost about 7,000 or more of them.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Renly:

The tricky thing there is that we don't really know how many Stormlanders Renly actually had in his host. It seems that Renly and Loras went directly from KL to Highgarden, where Renly proclaimed himself king before all the other claimants - Stannis, Robb, and Balon - came forth. This makes it rather unlikely that Renly personally went back into the Stormlands to raise his own troops, but rather sent ravens to his vassals demanding their fealty. But since Renly did not call on them personally - or was in the Stormlands at this time - it is not all that likely that the average Stormlord felt as obliged to send his full strength to Renly - especially not those who agreed to meet with Davos and treated him kindly. The Stormlords had no proof that Cersei's children were bastards - and they did certainly not hear about that fact from Renly - and they found themselves essentially trapped between Robert's son(s) and his brothers, a very precarious position.

Sure, Renly inspired loyalty and all, and thus it is not impossible that some particular Renly fans sent many men, but others - especially the Marcher Lords - may have sent just a token force or no men at all. The Lords closer to the Reach would also feel more compelled to commit themselves for fear the Tyrells and Renly may pay them a visit on the march to KL.

Considering the short time the Stormlords had to raise their men I'd assume that most Stormlanders in Renly's army were actually cavalry rather than foot. The Reach is densely populated, which should allow Highgarden to muster a pretty huge army very quickly, but the Stormland are much more scarcely populated, putting the Lords there in much worse position. Renly's overall strategy somewhat resembles Ormund Hightower's march from Oldtown to Tumbleton, essentially growing on the march by forcing/motivating everyone on the way to team up with them. We know that Renly received Stannis' letter at Horn Hill, suggesting that Tarly's forces only joined his host when the army arrived there. The southern and western marches of the Reach would have sent their forces to Highgarden, I assume, whereas those Lords close to or at Roseroad would join on the way.

In effect, we have no internal textual evidence that Renly truly had 80,000 men at Bitterbridge. There may have been about as many people there, but many could have been camp followers, mummers, singers, spectators etc. This whole column was as much army as it was entertainment, and Renly purposefully tries to impress Catelyn with his nightly campfires rather than his actual soldiers.

If we go with the assumption that the Stormlords had brought more cavalry than foot, then quite a lot of Stormlander cavalry may have been with Renly at Storm's End, but the Reach horse would still have been more. The cavalry going back with Randyll, Loras, and Mathis to Bitterbridge would have knights/horse sworn directly to the Tyrells, Tarlys, and Rowans.

We know that Tarly later punished Florent foot quite severely at Bitterbridge for trying to join/declare for Stannis, but I doubt that he or the Tyrells could/did treat the remaining Stormlander foot the same way. They were not committing treason against Mace Tyrell, after all. The best way to go about this is either assuming that there were not 10,000-15,000 Stormland foot at Bitterbridge but a much lesser number, and that those people simply jumped on the chance to quietly sneak back home rather than to wait and being forced to fight for somebody they had not declared for.

I did a calculation in another thread, but didn't see any reason to include it here, it goes like this: Tywin invaded the Riverlands with 35,000 men, 10,500 of which were mounted, that's 30% mounted. We know for a fact that Renly had ~20,000 cavalry a Storm's End, and since Tywin is the richest lord in the Realm we would expect that he would have the greatest proportion of cavalry. If that is the case then Renly could not have had less than 66,700 men in total. House Frey had 1/4 of its strength mounted, the Reach/Stormlands having a similar ratio makes sense, so ~80,000 seems like a very reasonable number from Renly.

Also the Storm lords had plenty of time to raise their men: if Rickard Karstark can gather most of his men, march them to Winterfell, and then ride all the way south to Riverrun between Renly fleeing the capital and Renly's crowning becoming public knowledge, then the Stormlands can raise it's entire strength. Not saying that it did, assuming 20K with Renly they should still have ~10,000 left, many of them Dondarrion's and Swanns.

I should note that I feel 20,000 is a minimum for Stormlanders in Renly's host, otherwise there are just too many Reachmen. Already with the ~60,000 estimate with Renly the Reach is looking at ~100,000 men in total, start increasing beyond that and you have to wonder how the hell the Gardeners didn't conquer westeros centuries before Aegon showed up.

[Chaircat Meow]

What do you think about wildling numbers Ser Arthur.

There's debate as to whether the horde of Mance was 100,000 or 30,000 strong. The 100 figure is given by a few people, but there's a 30,00 figure in the prologue to SoS and which, in my view, fits best with all the other numbers we get.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well Roose sure took a lot of causalities then.

19,500 + 4,000 = 23,500. We know about 5,800 men left, either with Robb or remained at the Twins. So Roose had about 17,700 at the GF on your view, and lost about 7,000 or more of them.

In my view the best place to probe is the 10000 figure we are given for Roose afterward. We should question when it is given, by whom, and what could have diverted more men from his surviving host in the interim.

[Chaircat Meow]

In my view the best place to probe is the 10000 figure we are given for Roose afterward. We should question when it is given, by whom, and what could have diverted more men from his surviving host in the interim.

It is from Edmure in CoK when discussing defending RR against Tywin. Some men could have decided to go home for the harvest I guess, Cat seemed to suggest that was happening at around that time.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Again, I think you're all underestimating the scale here. We are to believe that Roose lost 8,000 men out of the original 18,000-man army. I'm sorry, but I just do not believe that for a moment. One, that'd mean he somehow mucked up his deployment SO much that he lost 16 men for every 1 Tywin lost (unless Tywin actually took thousands of casualties), which is a worse casualty ratio than even Robb's all heavy-cavalry ambush of Jaime's force (outnumbered three to one) at the Whispering Wood. This is especially silly when you remember that Tywin was intending to lose a lot of men. Two, the whole Green Fork/Whispering Wood/Camps operation would be viewed as catastrophic due to nearly half of the North host being wiped out in the very first battle; the later routing of the thinly-spread Lannister forces by the North/Riverlands horse wouldn't fully make up for that. Three, everyone in that army would be calling for Roose's head. Losing near-half of your army was downright disastrous in the time period the books are based on (well, it's disastrous now, but back then even more so). Roose would be viewed as either one of the worst generals in the history of Westeros, or a traitor.

Fundamentally I agree with almost everything you have just said. Though I would point out Tywin didn't have much of a chance to take losses: original cavalry attack fails, a few dozen dead, infantry battle, Lannisters come out well on top because they make much better use of archers (Roose had quite a few of those too by the way, he just barely bothers to use them) and aren't tired from marching all night, finally the heavy cavalry under Tywin and Marbrand attacks, complete rout on the part of the northmen.

However the fact is Roose had around 10,000 at the beginning of Clash, clearly stated by Edmure, and if you wead some of my previous posts in response to Nyrhex you will see that the maths works out very well if we accept Roose had 10,000, this means that the difference between what he had originally (16,200 or 17,700, depending on how many you think Robb had) and 10,000 is what his casualties were.

IMO it is a weakness of the plot that Roose is never called out on his actions, that Robb was actually going to give him a major command after he failed at nearly everything boggles the mind.

[Frey Pie]

"But it seems to me that a man who has fought as many battles as Tywin Lannister won't be so easily surprised"

Robb Stark talking about the Greatjon plan. And how do people think Robb then orders Roose to surprise Tywin?

[Frey Pie]

"But it seems to me that a man who has fought as many battles as Tywin Lannister won't be so easily surprised"

Robb Stark talking about the Greatjon plan. And how do people think Robb then orders Roose to surprise Tywin? That makes zero sense. Later he says that greatjon us mad to fight Tywin, not to surprise him

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

What do you think about wildling numbers Ser Arthur.

There's debate as to whether the horde of Mance was 100,000 or 30,000 strong. The 100 figure is given by a few people, but there's a 30,00 figure in the prologue to SoS and which, in my view, fits best with all the other numbers we get.

Honestly I haven't read those chapters in too long. But as I recall the numbers aren't discrepancies but simply measuring different things, 30,000 warriors (though a warrior is anyone who has a decent(by wildling standards) weapon) out of 100,000 total.

However IIRC the 30,000 figure comes from Stannis stating he was outnumbered 20:1, so using the (updated figures) from the OP gives the wildlings ~24,000 warriors, though that could vary by ~10,000 or more and warrior in that context is hard to define.

As for the total figure I don't think the 100,000 figure is worth anything, how the hell would anyone count it? Turnstile? Relying on the estimations of the 1,000s of chiefs, even though wildings switch clans as they like? No, if the Wildlings say there are 100,000 there could well be anywhere from 60-150,000, and no one would know the difference.

BTW kudos for getting the name right, you'd be amazed how many people spell it "sir".

[Chaircat Meow]

"But it seems to me that a man who has fought as many battles as Tywin Lannister won't be so easily surprised"

Robb Stark talking about the Greatjon plan. And how do people think Robb then orders Roose to surprise Tywin? That makes zero sense. Later he says that greatjon us mad to fight Tywin, not to surprise him

Robb wanted to give the Greatjon command of just the foot to go and smash Tywin after reporting the Greatjon had said what he said (and disagreeing). Anyway, as Ser Arthur and Nihlus have said, it is a little ridiculous to think Roose could have lost almost half of the army (if we go for the 19,500 figure) via the forced march at night and escaped with no reprimand. The best explanation is that Robb told him to attack and defeat Tywin if he could, and that he ought to use surprise to do this (unless he had a better idea). Roose then implemented the plan for his own reasons, as GrrM said.

[Ran]

I think it's fairly legitimate to say there may be a flaw in the story, that GRRM didn't bother thinking of the ramifications of Roose losing such a substantial portion of his forces at the Green Fork and yet no one in the story questioning it or denigrating him because of it.

What if Robb had 18k with Manderly, that the Freys augmented this by 3200 men (-400 from Robb and -400 from the Freys), so 21.2k... and Robb had about 4k horse with him, so the remaining 17.2k are Roose's. And of that, say 2,2k are Freys. So 15,000 northmen. Now, if you suppose that after the battle, the Frey forces were not being counted by Edmure toward Roose's "10,000 at the fords" -- he was just counting northmen for whatever reason (maybe the Freys have repositioned to some separate task which no one mentions).

So.. he lost ~5k at the battle, and some of those might actually have been Frey forces (but maybe not). That's less than a third of his total force, and doesn't seem quite so bad when considering the fact that his opponent was nominally more numerous, had far more cavalry, and had entrenched itself.

So that's one way around it, I think. He succeeded in diverting Tywin from Riverrun, and suceeded in keeping a majority of his force intact to be able to seize the opportunity when Tywin dashed west.

[Nihlus]

One, a significant portion of those losses were apparently Freys. They sent 3,600 troops total with Robb, a thousand of which were knights, which should mean they sent 2,600 foot with Roose. Yet according to Arya, there are only 1,500 Freys at Harrenhal, pointing to over a thousand losses at Green Fork. Unless Arya was miscounting, which is possible. She has no real way to tell, and it wouldn't be the first time someone has miscounted Freys... using that exact number.

Two, that casualty ratio is still 10 North/Riverlands troops to every 1 Westerlands soldier- second-stringer Westerlands soldiers meant to die, at that- which is still too lopsided unless Roose is criminally incompetent. Tywin must have taken more than 500 casualties, or else something fishy is going on here. 500 casualties were specified for the force commanded by Clegane, IIRC, about a quarter of the army. I figure that the other three quarters combined had at least as many casualties as just Gregor's force- so 1,000. If Roose only had 16,200 men here (to account for Robb taking 9/10 of the horse, ~5,000 men), and the Freys weren't counted later, you could get away with saying he lost only 4k total. However...

Three, assuming 18,000 Northmen doesn't really work. Theon said Robb brought 20,000 down south, which confirms that the 18,000 estimate wasn't counting the Manderlys. I doubt that 2,000 men just flat-out don't matter to Theon, he's not dumb.

Maybe we just missed something here. What was Roose doing with his army after the Green Fork, again? Besides taking Harrenhal.

[Chaircat Meow]

One, a significant portion of those losses were apparently Freys. They sent 3,600 troops total with Robb, a thousand of which were knights, which should mean they sent 2,600 foot with Roose. Yet according to Arya, there are only 1,500 Freys at Winterfell, pointing to over a thousand losses at Green Fork. Unless Arya was miscounting, which is possible. She has no real way to tell, and it wouldn't be the first time someone has miscounted Freys... using that exact number.

Two, that casualty ratio is still 10 North/Riverlands troops to every 1 Westerlands soldier- second-stringer Westerlands soldiers meant to die, at that- which is still too lopsided unless Roose is criminally incompetent. Tywin must have taken more than 500 casualties, or else something fishy is going on here.

Three, assuming 18,000 doesn't really work. Theon said Robb brought 20,000 down south, which confirms that the 18,000 estimate wasn't counting the Manderlys. I doubt that 2,000 men just flat-out don't matter to Theon, he's not dumb.

Maybe we just missed something here. What was Roose doing with his army after the Green Fork, again? Besides taking Harrenhal.

The kill ratio doesn't really bother me. We're told the northern lines broke at the GF, so they took their casualties during the rout.

[Frey Pie]

I'm with ran in the discrepancies with the numbers, as it gives imho the best explanation. Robb tells cat that the surprise plan won't work because Tywin will not fall for it. Why would he then tell Roose that if he can he should surprise Tywin? Makes literally no sense

In any case another explanation for robb not giving out to Roose is that he's got enough going on

Karstark dead

winterfell taken

taking back the north

the tyrell/Lannister alliance

Brothers dead

jaime gone, mum under arrest etc etc

The numbers Roose brought with him was just one more thing to robb. Think I'd be pretty numb to anger if I was in his shoes as well, especially after I've executed another bannermen just before this

[Nyrhex]

One, a significant portion of those losses were apparently Freys. They sent 3,600 troops total with Robb, a thousand of which were knights, which should mean they sent 2,600 foot with Roose. Yet according to Arya, there are only 1,500 Freys at Winterfell, pointing to over a thousand losses at Green Fork. Unless Arya was miscounting, which is possible. She has no real way to tell, and it wouldn't be the first time someone has miscounted Freys... using that exact number.

Two, that casualty ratio is still 10 North/Riverlands troops to every 1 Westerlands soldier- second-stringer Westerlands soldiers meant to die, at that- which is still too lopsided unless Roose is criminally incompetent. Tywin must have taken more than 500 casualties, or else something fishy is going on here.

Three, assuming 18,000 doesn't really work. Theon said Robb brought 20,000 down south, which confirms that the 18,000 estimate wasn't counting the Manderlys. I doubt that 2,000 men just flat-out don't matter to Theon, he's not dumb.

Maybe we just missed something here. What was Roose doing with his army after the Green Fork, again? Besides taking Harrenhal.

You forget the Freys that lay siege to Riverrun at the same time as ~1,500 are marching north. Losses are minimal and replaced with fresh levies, likely pre-war numbers for House Frey at the moment.

Tywin took more than 500 casualties at the Green Fork, just not that much more. Half of Tyrion's clansmen died, if not more. Considering that they are 300 out of ~1,000 on the Left, at least 500 of Gregor's flank died, 150 of those Vale Clansmen and 350 of those Lannisters. That is without losses from the center and Marbrands' mounted Right. Though considering that the Northmen attacked through 2-3 arrow volleys unprotected due to them running, clashing with a larger foe and then being smashed in the flank by 4,000 heavy horse, it stands to reason that Tywin did not lose much more than 500 of his own men, while the Northmen are understandably bloodied, having been pushed back across the field right back up the hills from which they charged, and then hit again post breaking by more heavy horse from Tywin's charge. Tywin sees the enemy in complete rout, stops, sits to have a drink, and then hears his goldne child is about to get fucked because he trusted Tywin's judgement that Frey will never side with Robb - despite Marbrand telling him that Frey did excatly that the day before, when he told him he still has a day's march before he faces Robb's host and the Frey levies. Honestly, Robb got that battle practically on a platter. Why no, why ever should Jaime fear the enemy to his east? It's not like a Riverlord has a bridge and his father's scouts have seen him join Robb's host the day it happened.

Theon says 20k or close enough. He rounds numbers that he sees. Have you ever tried to eyeball several thousand people? It's not easy and Theon's 20k instead of 18k is not that far off. He is not dumb, but he does not also have to be 100% accurate about an event a couple of years and a lifetime ago.

After the Green Fork Roose went back to the Twins, got married, then went to take Harrnenhal with the 400 men who were left as garrison earlier. He spends half of ACOK reforming his scattered host, getting married, and getting Hoat's message about wanting to switch sides.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Maybe Edmure just misspoke with the 10,000 men comment

I find the idea of Roose deliberately throwing his first battle after being given command kind of implausible too. That would be very dangerous to his reputation and credibility, and might lose him the command. Ditto for the idea that he lost 6,000+ men and no one ever commented on it.

The GF is just a strange event no matter how you interpret it

[Pablius]

Can´t some of Bolton losses between the battle of Green Fork and Harrenhal be owed to simple attrition?

Medieval armies were not that cohesive, maybe he managed to eliminate rivals and not look as a complete failure because at the battle he didn´t lose an huge number to troops, the Wiki says 4k out 18k anyway, don't know how reliable it is on this matters

Maybe another 4k went home, got sick, deserted, etc.

And if GRRM says Bolton was already scheming at that point (whatever the details may be), who are we to disagree even if it looks bad? I don't find it that strange, lords changed sides all the time for the most petty reasons, power hunger doesn´t seems so out of the question if he decided it was futile war from the beginning

[Ramsay's Penguins]

20'000 number may exist if 500 crannogmen join them marching through the Neck. Which is a lot more likely then them all going to Moat Cailin when they can join as Robb walks past.

The Karstarks back up their position when the Green Fork occours. Roose doesn't send them charging into the Lannisters, but instead forms halfway up the hill to inhibit the Lannisters. And it does, it takes three charges to break the line of pikes, before the northerners charge the van, which were coming up the hill (although, coming down a hill on a horse is not a great idea). I think casualties for both were high. The Lannisters definitely had more losses then the 500 in the van.

[Nihlus]

You forget the Freys that lay siege to Riverrun at the same time as ~1,500 are marching north. Losses are minimal and replaced with fresh levies, likely pre-war numbers for House Frey at the moment.

Tywin took more than 500 casualties at the Green Fork, just not that much more. Half of Tyrion's clansmen died, if not more. Considering that they are 300 out of ~1,000 on the Left, at least 500 of Gregor's flank died, 150 of those Vale Clansmen and 350 of those Lannisters. That is without losses from the center and Marbrands' mounted Right. Though considering that the Northmen attacked through 2-3 arrow volleys unprotected due to them running, clashing with a larger foe and then being smashed in the flank by 4,000 heavy horse, it stands to reason that Tywin did not lose much more than 500 of his own men, while the Northmen are understandably bloodied, having been pushed back across the field right back up the hills from which they charged, and then hit again post breaking by more heavy horse from Tywin's charge. Tywin sees the enemy in complete rout, stops, sits to have a drink, and then hears his goldne child is about to get fucked because he trusted Tywin's judgement that Frey will never side with Robb - despite Marbrand telling him that Frey did excatly that the day before, when he told him he still has a day's march before he faces Robb's host and the Frey levies. Honestly, Robb got that battle practically on a platter. Why no, why ever should Jaime fear the enemy to his east? It's not like a Riverlord has a bridge and his father's scouts have seen him join Robb's host the day it happened.

Theon says 20k or close enough. He rounds numbers that he sees. Have you ever tried to eyeball several thousand people? It's not easy and Theon's 20k instead of 18k is not that far off. He is not dumb, but he does not also have to be 100% accurate about an event a couple of years and a lifetime ago.

After the Green Fork Roose went back to the Twins, got married, then went to take Harrnenhal with the 400 men who were left as garrison earlier. He spends half of ACOK reforming his scattered host, getting married, and getting Hoat's message about wanting to switch sides.

Sorry, meant to say Harrenhal. As for Winterfell, we know for a fact that 2,000 Freys are marching with Roose. Theon eyeballs them at 1,500+, and Cersei explicitly says 2,000.

When is it stated Gregor's left is only 1,000 men? In any case, if Gregor alone took 500 losses, I think an estimate of ~1,000 total for Lannister losses at the Green Fork is reasonable. Yep, Tywin was a dope in that battle.

Why would Theon be eyeballing them? He was a soldier in Robb's army and his friend and outrider. Why wouldn't he know their total strength? Why did Roose take his whole army back to the Twins, and where is it stated he only took 400 men to take Harrenhal?

Anyway, assuming the North marched down with 18,000 men, here's the best I can try to piece together Roose having only ten thousand men after the Green Fork. It relies on a lot of generous assumptions, though it's mostly a review:

-Robb marches with 18,000 men. He has a standard cavalry to foot ratio, so 4,500/13,500.

-Robb recruits the Freys. He leaves 400 infantry at the Twins and takes 2,600 Frey infantry and 1,000 Frey cavalry in turn. Total: 21,200. 17,600 Northmen (13,100/4,500), 3,600 Freys (2,600/1,000).

-Robb splits his army; he takes 9/10 of the horse (~5,000) and leaves 1/10 of the horse (500) and all of the foot (15,700) with Roose. Roose's total: 16,200. 13,500 Northmen (13,100/400), 2,700 Freys (2,600/100).

-Roose engages Tywin to distract him from Robb at the Green Fork. Roose loses more men. Arya's later estimate of 1,500 Freys suggests a lot more, but again, I'm being generous. I'll assume he only lost a few hundred Freys, and a lot more Northmen, mostly his own rivals. By my estimate, Roose lost 4,000 men here to Tywin's 1,000. Which isn't that bad. Total: 12,200. 10,000 Northmen, 2,200 Freys.

-Edmure estimates Roose to have 10,000. He doesn't count the Freys in his total, because they're his bannermen. They leave him later anyway, and he takes back the 400 Northmen at the Twins. Total: 10,400.

-Roose switches sides. He whittles away the other Northmen on suicide missions, Duskendale and Ruby ford being examples. There could possibly have been more, Anyway, the point is, by the time he arrives at the Red Wedding,, he only has 4,100 left. Total: 4,100. 3,000 Boltons, 500 Karstarks (estimated), 600 other guarding the Ford.

Note I still think ~20k Northmen is the more likely figure.