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Was fAegon’s looks a gamble?


Mithras

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Why does Stannis not use more magic to kill his enemies?

Because Mel's magic makes Stannis weaker each time he uses it and makes him look 20 years older.. This is not present with Varys, so either he used a different type of magic (which has no negative effect on its user) or he used Mel's magic and is actually alot younger than he looks.

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fAegon supporters go through impressive mental acrobatics to maintain their theory...

The case for rAegon is more difficult to make.

How does it even work? you think no one knew what Aegon looked like? That he could really have been swapped, right in time, with a pisswater prince? How can Varys pretend himself a Targaryen supporter, how can he justify getting Aegon out of KL, and leaving Elia and Rhaenys behind at the mercy of Tywin's men? We know how well Varys knows the secret passages. We know that he was able to get Tyrion out of KL. Why not Elia, then? And what about Rhaenys, didn't she count at all? Don't you find it a bit convenient that both of Aegon's parents and his sister are dead?

Varys and Illyrio make no sense if they are simple 'Targaryen' supporters. What do they gain by putting Aegon on the throne and by trying to rid the world of Dany and Viserys? It's naive to think the dothraki marriage was ever expected to be fruitful. What Illyrio expected was for Viserys and Dany to die. Why, if he was a simple Targaryen loyalist?

Why did Varys report on Dany's and Viserys's movements to Robert, why did he report on Dany's marriage and her pregnancy if he meant her well?

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Honestly, I think there is no need for any of that. The simplest explanation for fAegon is that he and Rhaegar's son were born roughly at the same time, and that the plan to replace the one with the other was only hatched after Rhaegar, Rhaegar's son and Elia died... Or alternatively, it was because both Aegons had the Valyrian features that the plan was hatched, and Varys had a 'hand' in the outbreak of the war, and (indirectly) in real Aegon's murder.

We know how much Varys has tried to influence the war of the five kings, he uses people like pawns to reach his goal. What stopped him from doing exactly the same during Robert's Rebellion, from profiting of or exacerbating the war/conflict, to advance his goals?

To swap the children, he needed the parents dead, and Aegon to disappear. This did happened. Not all of it was Varys's doing certainly, that's not what I'm saying. But Varys as we know him plans, manipulates people/events, and places bets. After Rhaegar's defeat, how much probability was there for Elia to die if she remained in Kingslanding? this is the 'bet' Varys made, imo....(> he did his best for Elia to stay in KL).... similarly, one can wonder about Varys's influence at court during Aerys's reign... it's been hinted that not all was well between father and son, and Aerys was very paranoid.... Varys was brought to court to council the King, to spy for him. That gave him a lot of power, and the possibility to poison Aery's mind....against Rhaegar.

I think one of the reasons Robert's Rebellion was successful is because Rhaegar failed to respond to the threat right away, the royal army lacked in proper leadership, and imo, this had little to do with Lyanna, and more to do with tensions within the royal family itself.... but that's another topic ;)

I think baby swap plot was always there because Aegon Blackfyre had no chance to be a king in Westeros. In order to get their blood on the IT, they needed to pretend as Targaryens.

So, they waited to produce their prince at the right time (and I assume that it was a one-time event – the making of this magic should require dear sacrifices – perhaps Serra was sacrificed to get the desired output).

Considering all the sons of Aerys, it is obvious that they could not produce a pretend boy to replace any of them. They kept dying until Viserys and the civil war was far away. With Aegon, the timing was perfect.

But even then, there was the risk that the Rebellion could have been crushed, which would leave no room for a baby swap cover story. Only after the Trident, it became certain that Varys was going find a chance for the baby swap plot. So, I think fAegon was conceived strictly after the Trident.

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Because Mel's magic makes Stannis weaker each time he uses it and makes him look 20 years older.. This is not present with Varys, so either he used a different type of magic (which has no negative effect on its user) or he used Mel's magic and is actually alot younger than he looks.

“All sorcery comes at a cost, child. Years of prayer and sacrifice and study are required to work a proper glamor.”

“Years?” she said, dismayed.

“If it were easy all men would do it. You must walk before you run. Why use a spell, where mummer’s tricks will serve?”
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The case for rAegon is more difficult to make.

How does it even work?

Not difficult at all really.

There's too much focus on "Varys' master plan". Varys has undoubtedly adjusted his plan repeatedly as events happen so you don't have to wonder how he guessed X and Y and Z would all happen perfectly... X happened so he reacted, Y happened so he reacted, Z happened so he reacted. The situation now is what it is, we don't have all the information to know how plausible or implausible it actually is.

Varys and Illyrio make no sense if they are simple 'Targaryen' supporters.

Not entirely true since again we don't have the truth of what happened early in Aerys' reign. If it's true that Varys is the one who really instigated Aerys into madness then I would agree that they are probably somewhat anti-Targ. It could be that Varys only started working against Aerys once his madness showed on its own though, so they could be pro-Targ, just anti-psycho-Targ.

Again specifics aren't really important, there are dozens of options for their motivations. For now I'd say the most likely is that they have some relationship with the Golden Company and their goal has been to restore the Golden Company to their holdings, or alternate holdings, in Westeros.

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That's my thinking. We don't have an exact timeline, but if they may have already confirmed Aegon looked right by the time Viserys and Dany started their wanderings, so the plan to train Viserys went to hell and they never bothered to fix it.

IIRC, Willem Darry dies when Dany is five. Consideing that Aegon is older than Dany, it seemes pretty likely that Ser Willem died after Aegon's Targaryen look was very certain.

To swap the children, he needed the parents dead, and Aegon to disappear. This did happened. Not all of it was Varys's doing certainly, that's not what I'm saying. But Varys as we know him plans, manipulates people/events, and places bets. After Rhaegar's defeat, how much probability was there for Elia to die if she remained in Kingslanding? this is the 'bet' Varys made, imo....(> he did his best for Elia to stay in KL).... similarly, one can wonder about Varys's influence at court during Aerys's reign... it's been hinted that not all was well between father and son, and Aerys was very paranoid.... Varys was brought to court to council the King, to spy for him. That gave him a lot of power, and the possibility to poison Aery's mind....against Rhaegar.

:agree: Isn't it even hinted that Rhaegar intended to use the presence of many great lords at the tourney of Harrenhall to replace his father with their agree consent, but this plan was destroyed by Varys convoncing Aerys to finally leave KL and go to the tourney, too?

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The case for rAegon is more difficult to make.

How does it even work? you think no one knew what Aegon looked like? That he could really have been swapped, right in time, with a pisswater prince? How can Varys pretend himself a Targaryen supporter, how can he justify getting Aegon out of KL, and leaving Elia and Rhaenys behind at the mercy of Tywin's men? We know how well Varys knows the secret passages. We know that he was able to get Tyrion out of KL. Why not Elia, then? And what about Rhaenys, didn't she count at all? Don't you find it a bit convenient that both of Aegon's parents and his sister are dead?

Varys and Illyrio make no sense if they are simple 'Targaryen' supporters. What do they gain by putting Aegon on the throne and by trying to rid the world of Dany and Viserys? It's naive to think the dothraki marriage was ever expected to be fruitful. What Illyrio expected was for Viserys and Dany to die. Why, if he was a simple Targaryen loyalist?

Why did Varys report on Dany's and Viserys's movements to Robert, why did he report on Dany's marriage and her pregnancy if he meant her well?

I don't think the case for rAegon is that much more difficult to make. We've already seen a successful baby swap in the series with Mance's son and Gilly's son. No one noticed, because babies look more or less the same. Remember, in Westeros men aren't really involved with raising children, that's the job of the woman and her servants, so it's not like any of the high lords or even ladies will know. Elia even breastfed her own children so there was no wetnurse. Elia and her servants would be the only people who would recognize Aegon, so even if the servants recognized the switch, they weren't really in a position to suggest that the baby of the Princess and future Queen of Westeros looks different, because that would just get them in trouble. Even today, wherever her servants are now (if they're not dead), they're probably not going to remember some baby they took care of 18 years ago, and they likely don't even know about Aegon's return, and even if they do remember and they know Aegon is fake, who can they possibly tell?

Aegon could have been switched at any time before the sack- hours, days, weeks. It wouldn't be that hard to convince Elia that her children are in danger, from both Aerys and Robert's men. Remember, Aerys believed her uncle betrayed Rhaegar, so she was kept as a hostage in King's Landing against her will to prevent a Dornish betrayal. She also knew her children were in danger if the city was invaded by any of Robert's men. She also knew that Aegon was most likely to be killed, Rhaenys had very little chance of being killed. It's also been pointed out that it's much harder to switch a three year old girl, with more distinct looks and mannerisms, than it is to switch a baby. Even if they found a lookalike, three year olds are not good at acting, and would probably let slip that she wasn't Rhaenys. Logically, Rhaenys wasn't in any danger because she was a girl. Aegon, being the Targaryen heir, would pose a threat to Robert, but Rhaenys would make a very valuable marriage candidate or hostage. Being female, technically she and her children are not allowed to inherit the Iron Throne (decided by the Great Council of 101AD). Much better to marry her off to some Lannister, let's say, so even if she does move to claim the throne, her Lannister husband would benefit. It would have been better for the Rebels to keep her alive at least, to prevent any Targaryen sympathizers or Dornish rebellions. We already know how angry the Dornish are about Elia and Rhaenys, so strategically it didn't make that much sense to kill them. I don't think anyone could have predicted that they were both going to be savagely slaughtered.

So, knowing that Aegon is the likely target of an attack, Varys convinces Elia to switch her baby for safekeeping. If the fake wasn't killed, they could safely be switched back, probably with some profit to Varys. If the fake was killed, then the real Aegon would be safe, and Elia and Rhaenys would presumably also be safe, providing the opportunity to return him to Elia and having both Elia and Rhaenys confirm his identity. Or, perhaps Varys knew all along that the only way to keep the realm peaceful was to have someone on the throne who was taught to rule properly, so he switched the babies, always intending to raise Aegon to be a good ruler. Varys could get Tyrion out of King's Landing because everyone knew he was going to be executed the next day. No one knew that Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys were going to be killed right up until it actually happened. Also, I know most fAegon people say "How did Varys know that Aegon's head was going to be smashed in?" but it doesn't actually matter that Aegon's head was smashed in. If the babies were switched, of COURSE they were lookalikes, and no one's comparing the babies side by side. Like I said earlier, no one would have really seen the babies except for Elia and her servants anyway, so as long as the child looks Valyrian, surely it was enough to convince the court, and people who had never seen Aegon that it truly was Aegon. If the fake was just stabbed let's say and you can still see his face, it's not like Varys is going to bring out the real Aegon right then and there. Aegon was always going to remain hidden until later. Even if the face of the baby was recognizable, who's going to compare an 18 year old man to a dead baby from 18 years ago? It's actually terribly inconvenient for Varys that Aegon's mother and sister are dead. Everyone who hears about him and encounters him are going to assume he's fake, as they already have, and there's no one to back up the story, so it's actually quite precarious. It makes it just that much harder for people to run to Aegon's cause if everyone is suspecting he's a fake. That's probably why they hoped to marry him to Daenerys, because that would make him seem more legitimate, and less likely to question him when he's married to a known true Targaryen, with dragons no less.

I don't actually think Varys and Illyrio are Targaryen loyalists, I think like Varys said, they support the realm. It's best for the realm to have someone on the throne who is responsible, just, wise, and in all ways trained to take his duty seriously and rule fairly. Viserys was unruly, cruel and entitled, so it would terrible to have him on the throne. Much better to get rid of him. Daenerys is, in their eyes, just a girl with no thirst for the throne and like I said because of the ruling that no woman or descents of women cannot hold the thone, it would have been that much harder to get her on the throne. Marrying her off to a nomadic Dothraki Lord in Essos, who has no castles, seige weapons, ships or even desire to cross the sea, is as good as getting rid of her. The only reason they are interested in her now is because of her dragons, which no one could have predicted.

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Honestly, I think there is no need for any of that. The simplest explanation for fAegon is that he and Rhaegar's son were born roughly at the same time, and that the plan to replace the one with the other was only hatched after Rhaegar, Rhaegar's son and Elia died... Or alternatively, it was because both Aegons had the Valyrian features that the plan was hatched, and Varys had a 'hand' in the outbreak of the war, and (indirectly) in real Aegon's murder.

We know how much Varys has tried to influence the war of the five kings, he uses people like pawns to reach his goal. What stopped him from doing exactly the same during Robert's Rebellion, from profiting of or exacerbating the war/conflict, to advance his goals?

To swap the children, he needed the parents dead, and Aegon to disappear. This did happened. Not all of it was Varys's doing certainly, that's not what I'm saying. But Varys as we know him plans, manipulates people/events, and places bets. After Rhaegar's defeat, how much probability was there for Elia to die if she remained in Kingslanding? this is the 'bet' Varys made, imo....(> he did his best for Elia to stay in KL).... similarly, one can wonder about Varys's influence at court during Aerys's reign... it's been hinted that not all was well between father and son, and Aerys was very paranoid.... Varys was brought to court to council the King, to spy for him. That gave him a lot of power, and the possibility to poison Aery's mind....against Rhaegar.

I think one of the reasons Robert's Rebellion was successful is because Rhaegar failed to respond to the threat right away, the royal army lacked in proper leadership, and imo, this had little to do with Lyanna, and more to do with tensions within the royal family itself.... but that's another topic ;)

So sorcery isn't needed, but a 3 sigma event where every unlikely event happens is? lol How does Varys know that Rhaegar would kidnap Lyanna?

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Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee.

From Illyrio. They are upjumped thieves. They stole Aegon, and are returning him for a fee.

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Not entirely true since again we don't have the truth of what happened early in Aerys' reign. If it's true that Varys is the one who really instigated Aerys into madness then I would agree that they are probably somewhat anti-Targ. It could be that Varys only started working against Aerys once his madness showed on its own though, so they could be pro-Targ, just anti-psycho-Targ.

Again specifics aren't really important, there are dozens of options for their motivations. For now I'd say the most likely is that they have some relationship with the Golden Company and their goal has been to restore the Golden Company to their holdings, or alternate holdings, in Westeros.

Varys's action during Roberts Rebellion, or his inaction, have little incidence on what I said that Varys and Illyrio don't make much sense as 'simple' Targaryen supporters. Their goal is something else, it must be. And that's not based on any sort of speculation but the fact that their actions regarding Dany and Viserys are totally illogical for 'Targaryen supporters'.

Then, there's the fact the Golden Company was founded to support Blackfyre claimants and not Targaryen ones. The very founding story of the Golden Company rests on the claim of Daemon Blackfyre, the GC has been a thorn in the side for descendants of Daeron Targaryen, why should they suddenly change course and go against the very purpose of their existence?

As Illyrio said "some contracts are written in ink, some in blood." The Golden Company will not break contract for the son of Rhaegar, why should they, when they refused, even mocked Viserys?

And why, again, did Varys inform Robert on Dany's and Viserys's movements if his end goal was to restore the Targayren dynasty? It makes absolutely no sense, especially if you consider that Rhaegar's siblings are the best 'identification paper' Aegon could have had to lend legitimacy to his claim. And why wasn't Doran Martell ever made aware of his nephew's survival?

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So sorcery isn't needed, but a 3 sigma event where every unlikely event happens is? lol How does Varys know that Rhaegar would kidnap Lyanna?

I call that willfully misunderstanding my post. I'm calling Varys an opportunist, which he is. Prove to me that he isn't?

... no argument?

There you go.

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The fact that their actions regarding Dany and Viserys are totally illogical for 'Targaryen supporters'.

How? Varys kept his options open while Aegon grew up. When Aegon was nearly ready, Viserys and Dany were sent off with the Dothraki - they either die or gain the support of a giant Dothraki horde. By this point Viserys has already demonstrated himself to be his mad father's son and Dany is only a timid girl - so not optimal final candidates, only tools to put up Aegon.

Then, there's the fact the Golden Company was founded to support Blackfyre claimants and not Targaryen ones. The very founding story of the Golden Company rests on the claim of Daemon Blackfyre, the GC has been a thorn in the side for descendants of Daeron Targaryen, why should they suddenly change course and go against the very purpose of their existence?

They want to go home. They want lands. Their true loyalty was always for a "dragon" - black or red. Aegon has been raised to be a "dragon".

As Illyrio said "some contracts are written in ink, some in blood." The Golden Company will not break contract for the son of Rhaegar, why should they, when they refused, even mocked Viserys?

They mocked Viserys soon after Westeros had just been united behind Robert, the situation was terrible for an invasion. The current state is a wartorn Westeros where they can quickly gain allies. The contract in blood isn't anti-Targ, it's pro-GC. The GC was formed to unite the various exiles after the first Blackfyre rebellion. Again they WANT TO GO HOME.

And why, again, did Varys inform Robert on Dany's and Viserys's movements if his end goal was to restore the Targayren dynasty? It makes absolutely no sense, especially if you consider that Rhaegar's siblings are the best 'identification paper' Aegon could have had to lend legitimacy to his claim. And why wasn't Doran Martell ever made aware of his nephew's survival?

Varys could have various reasons for telling Robert.

- Maintain his status as the knower of everything.

- Sow discord between Robert and Ned.

- View/judge Ned's reaction to the same news and Robert's reaction.

- Give Drogo a grudge against Robert.

If a fake Aegon were ever going to be put up - why wasn't Doran Martell ever made aware of his nephew's survival?

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I call that willfully misunderstanding my post. I'm calling Varys an opportunist, which he is. Prove to me that he isn't?

... no argument?

There you go.

An opportunist, but look at the opportunities.

Rhaegar had to kidnap Lyanna.

Illyrio had to have a son who is is the same age and looks like Aegon

The loyalists had to lose, despite them having larger numbers.

The sack of King's Landing had to happen so Aegon could die(despite Varys himself urging Aerys not to open the gates)

It's too implausible.

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magic itself is a gamble.



i think the answer is Aegon Brightfyre



Illyrio Blackfyre and Serra Brighflame, from Lys (where whores are reproduced selectively to mantain Valyrian looks), both have dragon blood.



even if Serra wasn´t perfect Valyrian, she would have those resesive gens..



odds are Aegon would have Valyrian looks..


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:rolleyes:

Is there any reason to believe that tale of Varys?

Well, Varys talks in half truths rather than plainly lie. So, we could believe HALF of his story. He probably hates magic, yes. But.. he still practices. What other options does he have?

There is another possibility that no matter how difficult it is to believe, it must be considered, because even through all of the magic and scheming, there is still Ocam's razor, and GRRM is an amazing author, with an attention to detail rivaled only by the greatest authors in history

The Aegon/Young Griff presented to us the reader is in fact Rhaegar's trueborn son and Heir to the seven Kingdoms

stop trying to use logic... what's wrong with you?

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Well, Varys talks in half truths rather than plainly lie. So, we could believe HALF of his story. He probably hates magic, yes. But.. he still practices. What other options does he have?

stop trying to use logic... what's wrong with you?

I cannot find any point where Varys actually lied. Feel free to prove me wrong. He tends to speak the truth, albeit in vague terms, like referring to Jon Arryns killer as "A man who owed everything he is to Lord Arryn."

Folks like me on the first read, and Ned in the books thinks it is Sir Hugh of the Vale but in reality it was Little Finger

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An opportunist, but look at the opportunities.

Rhaegar had to kidnap Lyanna.

Illyrio had to have a son who is is the same age and looks like Aegon

The loyalists had to lose, despite them having larger numbers.

The sack of King's Landing had to happen so Aegon could die(despite Varys himself urging Aerys not to open the gates)

It's too implausible.

No.

First, what started the war? It wasn't Lyanna being kidnapped. A single event did not start Robert's Rebellion, just as the war of the five Kings did not start because of a single incident. A war starts when there is the right political climate for it to start. Tensions can exist for years in a country before a civil war breaks out. A single event will only constitute the 'drop' of water that makes the glass overflow, it is only indirectly responsible for the war, it only acts as a catalyst, a scape-goat, an excuse.

So your point of 'Rhaegar had to capture Lyanna' doesn't imo, hold up. The war was inevitable, it was a question of time. Duskendale was a prelude to Robert's Rebellion, Tywin's and Aerys's falling apart...even Harrenhall (if the rumors are true), all these events were preludes to the war. Varys needed only to watch, collect information, and eventually, seize an opportunity.

An opportunist takes advantage of opportunities, the way they present themselves to him, he'll manipulate events slightly, but not too much, so as not to fall under suspicion. He doesn't necessarily plan everything from A to Z. He's bound to change goals and plans mid-way, if a better opportunity presents itself.

What if Rhaegar had won? We don't know what Varys might have done then. It's possible, he'd have bidden his time and waited for another opportunity, to hatch another plan. I believe Varys originally only wanted to undermine Targaryen rule...

From the point of view I'm arguing, I'm basically saying that the plan (to pass fAegon off as rAegon) was hatched only because the opportunity presented itself. In this scenario what Varys did was to make sure to exploit the war as best he could. Meaning : playing on Aerys's fears, making the king more paranoid. The consequence of that is Aerys being comforted in his belief that keeping Elia and her children hostage is necessary. Doing that is equivalent to maximize the possibility for Elia, and her children, to die.

[Even without Tywin's intervention, in KL? Elia and her children were at the mercy of Mad King Aerys, and the guy had wildfyre in the city, under the red keep, even!]

imo, that's the big gamble, the only gamble he, Varys, truly played on -- and he kept his hands clean, just in case it didn't go as he'd hoped.

So....the only thing that really needed to happen was Illyrio having a son with Valyrian features. It's the 'primordial condition', that made 'seizing the opportunity' possible in the first place....the probability for Illyrio and Serra to have that son were not bad imo, though I do believe that at the point fAegon was conceived, there was absolutely no plan to place him on the iron throne.

We don't even know exactly how old the boy is, having him be born at 'roughly' the same time as Aegon can mean anything between fAegon being 1 year older or one year younger than rAegon. Jon Connington only met him when the boy was 5 iirc, JonCon has no children of his own, had no one to compared Aegon too -- plus, while the age difference between infants is generally quite obvious, the same is not necessarily true for 5-6 years old....also, we don't know that Young Griff looks like Aegon. We only know that Young Griff has bluish-purple eyes and silver hair. So do many people in Lys, and Volantis, and in every other place in Essos where there's a strong percentage of people with Valyrian blood....

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I cannot find any point where Varys actually lied. Feel free to prove me wrong. He tends to speak the truth, albeit in vague terms, like referring to Jon Arryns killer as "A man who owed everything he is to Lord Arryn."

Folks like me on the first read, and Ned in the books thinks it is Sir Hugh of the Vale but in reality it was Little Finger

I know, that's why I said "half truths". He's like Quaithe. They tell you the riddle. You have to figure it out (assholes).

But my reason to believe Varys at the end of aDwD have little to do with Varys as a character but with him as a literary resource. At the end of both Dance and Feast, the main players of the Game, LF and Varys, have revealed their plans. That was the twist. That Varys is not the harmless mummer people believe him to be and he will kill if he needs to.

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