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Was fAegon’s looks a gamble?


Mithras

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First post, so be kind to me.



Don't know where I stand on this. I can see it both ways. So, it is up in the air for me. Found this the other day and it could be a printing error, but thought I would throw this in. In ACOK, a Tyrion chapter, page 276 in my paperback and I quote Varys:



"The only puzzle is what you might have offered for his allegiance. The prince (Doran) is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe."



But, later in the conversation, Tyrion's thoughts indicate that everyone in King's Landing knew Gregor Clegane had killed Elia and her babe.



Babe, not babes! I'm still pondering this. So, what do you think?

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First post, so be kind to me.

Don't know where I stand on this. I can see it both ways. So, it is up in the air for me. Found this the other day and it could be a printing error, but thought I would throw this in. In ACOK, a Tyrion chapter, page 276 in my paperback and I quote Varys:

"The only puzzle is what you might have offered for his allegiance. The prince (Doran) is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe."

But, later in the conversation, Tyrion's thoughts indicate that everyone in King's Landing knew Gregor Clegane had killed Elia and her babe.

Babe, not babes! I'm still pondering this. So, what do you think?

Wellcome to the Forums and that is a great catch. That can be interpreted in many ways, one of which is that Doran is in the Aegon conspiracy (though he does not know that the boy is an impostor).

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First post, so be kind to me.

Don't know where I stand on this. I can see it both ways. So, it is up in the air for me. Found this the other day and it could be a printing error, but thought I would throw this in. In ACOK, a Tyrion chapter, page 276 in my paperback and I quote Varys:

"The only puzzle is what you might have offered for his allegiance. The prince (Doran) is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe."

But, later in the conversation, Tyrion's thoughts indicate that everyone in King's Landing knew Gregor Clegane had killed Elia and her babe.

Babe, not babes! I'm still pondering this. So, what do you think?

i would not think people who think the daughter was a babe. dany is consider like a grown woman at what 13 or 14?

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Dude is Illyrio's heir and therefore the heir of Daemon Blackfyre. Illyrio is blonde and he apparently picked a Lysene prostitute to help ensure his heir would have Valyrian features. I don't think there was any need for voodoo.

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No.

First, what started the war? It wasn't Lyanna being kidnapped. A single event did not start Robert's Rebellion, just as the war of the five Kings did not start because of a single incident. A war starts when there is the right political climate for it to start. Tensions can exist for years in a country before a civil war breaks out. A single event will only constitute the 'drop' of water that makes the glass overflow, it is only indirectly responsible for the war, it only acts as a catalyst, a scape-goat, an excuse.

Actually it was. If she isn't kidnapped, Brandon doesn't go to King's Landing. People were letting Aerys run about even while knowing he was insane.

So your point of 'Rhaegar had to capture Lyanna' doesn't imo, hold up. The war was inevitable, it was a question of time. Duskendale was a prelude to Robert's Rebellion, Tywin's and Aerys's falling apart...even Harrenhall (if the rumors are true), all these events were preludes to the war. Varys needed only to watch, collect information, and eventually, seize an opportunity.

No. It wasn't inevitable. Duskendale was one weirdly dumb lord trying to take Aerys captive. Something that had nothing to do with Aerys insanity.

An opportunist takes advantage of opportunities, the way they present themselves to him, he'll manipulate events slightly, but not too much, so as not to fall under suspicion. He doesn't necessarily plan everything from A to Z. He's bound to change goals and plans mid-way, if a better opportunity presents itself.

Which is my point. Even if Varys could influence these things, the chances of these things happening is infinitesimal. If he has very little hand in it, then it's almost impossible. I'm not examining things from Varys' POV beforehand. I'm looking at how incredibly implausible it is with the most information.

What if Rhaegar had won? We don't know what Varys might have done then. It's possible, he'd have bidden his time and waited for another opportunity, to hatch another plan. I believe Varys originally only wanted to undermine Targaryen rule...

Which is entirely my point. Varys didn't go to King's Landing with a plan to undermine anything. He went for a chance to be paid handsomely and influence a king. Stealing baby Aegon was an opportunity. Not one he planned.

Then why did he tell Aerys not to open the gates? He himself could've escaped through the corridors easily. Aerys brought him to do a job, and he did the job extremely well. Too well in that Aerys knew people plotted against him. Those weren't things Varys was cooking up. Those were true.

From the point of view I'm arguing, I'm basically saying that the plan (to pass fAegon off as rAegon) was hatched only because the opportunity presented itself. In this scenario what Varys did was to make sure to exploit the war as best he could. Meaning : playing on Aerys's fears, making the king more paranoid. The consequence of that is Aerys being comforted in his belief that keeping Elia and her children hostage is necessary. Doing that is equivalent to maximize the possibility for Elia, and her children, to die.

[Even without Tywin's intervention, in KL? Elia and her children were at the mercy of Mad King Aerys, and the guy had wildfyre in the city, under the red keep, even!]

imo, that's the big gamble, the only gamble he, Varys, truly played on -- and he kept his hands clean, just in case it didn't go as he'd hoped.

So....the only thing that really needed to happen was Illyrio having a son with Valyrian features. It's the 'primordial condition', that made 'seizing the opportunity' possible in the first place....the probability for Illyrio and Serra to have that son were not bad imo, though I do believe that at the point fAegon was conceived, there was absolutely no plan to place him on the iron throne.

No. That baby needs to look like Aegon and be the exact same age....before everything else happens. Those chances in that of themselves isn't really that great. Especially as Illyrio has blonde hair and not purple eyes and Serra has silver hair and blue eyes. Aegon's eyes are confirmed as purple by Tyrion.

We don't even know exactly how old the boy is, having him be born at 'roughly' the same time as Aegon can mean anything between fAegon being 1 year older or one year younger than rAegon. Jon Connington only met him when the boy was 5 iirc, JonCon has no children of his own, had no one to compared Aegon too -- plus, while the age difference between infants is generally quite obvious, the same is not necessarily true for 5-6 years old....also, we don't know that Young Griff looks like Aegon. We only know that Young Griff has bluish-purple eyes and silver hair. So do many people in Lys, and Volantis, and in every other place in Essos where there's a strong percentage of people with Valyrian blood....

No. Young Griff is listed as 18 years old in the ADWD Appendix. He is the exact same age. Not one year +/-. This boy was born in the same year.

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a targ looking baby of the around same age doesn't seem to be really that hard to find anywhere in the free cities

But why should the Blackfyres put a random kid on the IT? Illyrio has no business in Westeros save for blood and revenge. He is richer than all the Great Lords and even the King. They should be content with destroying House Targaryen and be done with it but they seem to spend a lot of gold to put a boy on the IT. Therefore, the boy should have Blackfyre blood.

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But why should the Blackfyres put a random kid on the IT? Illyrio has no business in Westeros save for blood and revenge. He is richer than all the Great Lords and even the King. They should be content with destroying House Targaryen and be done with it but they seem to spend a lot of gold to put a boy on the IT. Therefore, the boy should have Blackfyre blood.

i never thought llyrio or varys is in the blackfyre business they just want to grab power by getting someone on the throne they can control. if that happens to be a blackfire? great!!! to me the whole is he real, fake or blackyre? will never be answered conclusively with clues pointing everywhere and moral conflicts all over the place.

also: “He chose money over power. In this town, a mistake nearly everyone makes. Money is the McMansion in Sarasota that starts falling apart after 10 years. Power is the old stone building that stands for centuries. I cannot respect someone who doesn’t see the difference.”

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i never thought llyrio or varys is in the blackfyre business they just want to grab power by getting someone on the throne they can control. if that happens to be a blackfire? great!!! to me the whole is he real, fake or blackyre? will never be answered conclusively with clues pointing everywhere and moral conflicts all over the place.

also: “He chose money over power. In this town, a mistake nearly everyone makes. Money is the McMansion in Sarasota that starts falling apart after 10 years. Power is the old stone building that stands for centuries. I cannot respect someone who doesn’t see the difference.”

But, Essos is the center of wealth and power. They consider the Westerosi as savages. Therefore, there is no reason to obtain the power in Westeros for them. In fact, they didnot obtain it yet. They spent tremendous amount of gold so far and they are far from winning their investment back. This does not look like a good trade, if it is done only for wealth and power.

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But, Essos is the center of wealth and power. They consider the Westerosi as savages. Therefore, there is no reason to obtain the power in Westeros for them. In fact, they didnot obtain it yet. They spent tremendous amount of gold so far and they are far from winning their investment back. This does not look like a good trade, if it is done only for wealth and power.

and in westeroes they would say "but Westroes is the center of wealth and power. Esso is full of savages!!" everything we hear about the esso free cities is full of slaves, falling into decay, and always infighting except of course braavos

and who said anything about wealth?

getting control of the 7 kingdoms interests varys and illyrio just like getting control of volantis or braavos would interest them. If they was just about getting rich or something varys and illyrio could live very comfortable lives, blackfyre or not. this is because blackfyre or not they want power.

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I know, that's why I said "half truths". He's like Quaithe. They tell you the riddle. You have to figure it out (assholes).

But my reason to believe Varys at the end of aDwD have little to do with Varys as a character but with him as a literary resource. At the end of both Dance and Feast, the main players of the Game, LF and Varys, have revealed their plans. That was the twist. That Varys is not the harmless mummer people believe him to be and he will kill if he needs to.

That does make sense. I must admit I have never looked at it from that perspective

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Am I the only one who doesn't care whether he's real targ or blackfyre? He will still make a better king then most other kings throughout the books, and his storyline is pretty cool. Coming back with the golden company.

I just can't wait till the truth comes out. So many people are going to be so upset. There's so many different ridiculous Crack pot theories. I wouldn't completely commit to a single crackpot theory though. With GRRM who knows what happens. Everyone is entitled to there prediction, no reason to get all but hurt because someone thinks aegon might not be the spawn of blood magic.

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Am I the only one who doesn't care whether he's real targ or blackfyre? He will still make a better king then most other kings throughout the books, and his storyline is pretty cool. Coming back with the golden company.

I just can't wait till the truth comes out. So many people are going to be so upset. There's so many different ridiculous Crack pot theories. I wouldn't completely commit to a single crackpot theory though. With GRRM who knows what happens. Everyone is entitled to there prediction, no reason to get all but hurt because someone thinks aegon might not be the spawn of blood magic.

He might make a good king regardless of he is legit or not. I think he will do good for a while. But for him to be the king, Varys is killing peple and creating chaos in the Realm. If Varys was really good intentioned, he would kill Cersei instead of Kevan and Pycelle.

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He might make a good king regardless of he is legit or not. I think he will do good for a while. But for him to be the king, Varys is killing peple and creating chaos in the Realm. If Varys was really good intentioned, he would kill Cersei instead of Kevan and Pycelle.

The thing about keeping cersei alive, is that she's really stupid. So that could help him. I just think its weird though, that everyone seems to think that aegons odds are to high against him, but there all so confident that stannis will smash the Bolton at winterfell, March his starving army 200 leagues south through 10 feet of snow, and become king of the iron throne using his army of northerners who aren't likely to follow him south. I know I just pissed off a lot of Stan fans, but I like aegon. I'm sure he will still lose though because clearly nobody wants to see him win in the end.
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The thing about keeping cersei alive, is that she's really stupid. So that could help him. I just think its weird though, that everyone seems to think that aegons odds are to high against him, but there all so confident that stannis will smash the Bolton at winterfell, March his starving army 200 leagues south through 10 feet of snow, and become king of the iron throne using his army of northerners who aren't likely to follow him south. I know I just pissed off a lot of Stan fans, but I like aegon. I'm sure he will still lose though because clearly nobody wants to see him win in the end.

There is some foreshadowing of a bunch of Northmen marching south as winter grips the North. The old, the cripples, and the weak, are known to leave their families to alleviate starvation. That's good cannon fodder. They should be joined by sellswords recruited by Massey and paid for by the Iron Bank. And the fleet Manderly built is going to be used for something. The big question is whether Stannis will fight Aegon and/or Daenerys before he fights the Others.
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First post, so be kind to me.

Don't know where I stand on this. I can see it both ways. So, it is up in the air for me. Found this the other day and it could be a printing error, but thought I would throw this in. In ACOK, a Tyrion chapter, page 276 in my paperback and I quote Varys:

"The only puzzle is what you might have offered for his allegiance. The prince (Doran) is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe."

But, later in the conversation, Tyrion's thoughts indicate that everyone in King's Landing knew Gregor Clegane had killed Elia and her babe.

Babe, not babes! I'm still pondering this. So, what do you think?

I don't see what is unusual about this. Gregor killed Elia and Aegon. Amory Lorch killed Rhaenys. So Tyrion reflecting that Gregor killed Elia and her babe is accurate.

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Some people criticize fake Aegon theories (at least the ones with Illyrio being the biological father of the boy) by claiming that the Valyrian looks of fAegon was never guaranteed, so this conspiracy should fail. Indeed, what if the boy was born with common features?

This is where TWOIAF steps in. At one of those conventions before the release of the Worldbook, it was reported that Visenya was implied to use magic in the conception of Maegor Targaryen. This bit was removed from TWOIAF but we will probably read it in Fire & Blood.

However, many facts supporting this idea are still in the book, such as the anomalies about Maegor. He had an immensely powerful stature, as if making heavy use of steroids. Of course the counterpart of steroids is magic in ASOIAF. It is perfectly proved that Maegor’s seeds were corrupt (for lack of a better word). Some of his wives were known to give birth to normal kids but with Maegor, they gave birth to a bunch of “things” that could hardly be considered as humans.

There is also a long list of atrocities done by the Valyrians in the Worldbook. They were into some kind of twisted genetic engineering fueled by bloodmagic. Many of the mysterious races result from such sick experiments involving interbreeding their slaves/convicts with beasts, examples including but not limited to the Brindled Men (brindled wyverns + humans), lizard-men (reptiles + humans), eyeless cave-dwellers/winged men (bats + humans) and so on.

Therefore, if there was someone who knew the necessary magic, it could have been guaranteed that fAegon could be born with necessary Valyrian features.

And the person who carried out the magic can be none other than good old Varys.

If your Brightfyre theory is right, then maybe it was not really a gamble because maybe both of his parents had the Targ look, and thus he was virtually certain to have the Targ look.

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Maybe, Varys and Illyrio came up with the "baby swap/Rhaegar's son returned" idea, after the baby Mopatis was born and it was obvious that he had Valyrian features. It could have been up to a year or two after the Sack. IIRC, Tyrion thinks that Young Griff looks younger than an 18 year old.


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