The Blackfyre

[LmL]

^^ agree with this as well

[Lost Melnibonean]

I'm gonna say, I think Serra was exactly who Illyrio claimed...

The Lyseni are also great breeders of slaves, maring beauty with beauty in hopes of producing ever more refined and lovely courtesans and bedslaves. The blood of Valyria still runs strong in Lys, where even the smallfolk oft boast pale skin, silver-gold hair, and the purple, lilac, and pale blue eyes of the dragon lords of old. The Lysene nobility values purity of blood above all and have produced many famous (and infamous) beauties. Even Targaryen kings and princes of old sometimes turned to Lys in search of wives and paramours, for their blood as for their beauty.

The Quarrelsome Daughters, TWOIAF

[Lost Melnibonean]

I've just started reading the whole thing yet again (I'm like the arms of House Toland) and this leaped out...

The streets of Pentos were pitch-dark when they set out in Illyrio's elaborately carved palanquin. Two servants went ahead to light their way, carrying ornate oil lanterns with panes of pale blue glass, while a dozen strong men hoisted the poles to their shoulders. It was warm and close inside behind the curtains. Dany could smell the stench of Illyrio's pallid flesh through his heavy perfumes.

Her brother, sprawled out on his pillows beside her, never noticed. His mind was away across the narrow sea. "We won't need his whole khalasar," Viserys said. His fingers toyed with the hilt of his borrowed blade, though Dany knew he had never used a sword in earnest. "Ten thousand, that would be enough, I could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers. The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. The Dornishmen burn to avenge Elia and her children. And the smallfolk will be with us. They cry out for their king." He looked at Illyrio anxiously. "They do, don't they?"

Daenerys I, Game 3

Daenerys's instincts are telling her to beware of this perfumed magister with the stench of pallid flesh beneath the heavy perfume. The George is sending us a message right off the bat. Consider this...

For nigh on half a year, they had lived in the magister's house, eating his food, pampered by his servants. Dany was thirteen, old enough to know that such gifts seldom come without their price, here in the free city of Pentos.

Daenerys I, Game 3

Clearly then Illyrio is not to be trusted.

Then we have this...

Dany had no agents, no way of knowing what anyone was doing or thinking across the narrow sea, but she mistrusted Illyrio's sweet words as she mistrusted everything about Illyrio. Her brother was nodding eagerly, however. "I shall kill the Usurper myself," he promised, who had never killed anyone, "as he killed my brother Rhaegar. And Lannister too, the Kingslayer, for what he did to my father."

"That would be most fitting," Magister Illyrio said. Dany saw the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips, but her brother did not notice. Nodding, he pushed back a curtain and stared off into the night, and Dany knew he was fighting the Battle of the Trident once again.

Daenerys I, Game 3

He's hiding something isn't he? We learn later that he's been hiding Aegon? But his hiding the true son of Rhaegar, Viserys's nephew, doesn't really jibe with the tenor of this chapter, does it?

[LmL]

Oh I don't know about that. The smile seems to imply he is playing Viserys for a fool - and a fool he clearly is - and I agree this implies he has alternate plans in mind, as a fallback if nothing else. But recall the Golden Company scene with Aegon in ADWD - they talk about all the various iterations of "the plan" from Illyrio. The first plan did seem to be to get Khal Drogo to invade Westeros by way of giving him Dany, so that wasn't a total feint. It's possible they thought to set up Viserys and the Dothraki as a menace, so that fAegon can be the hero, but I'm not sure.

I don't think Aegon is real, btw, I just don't think this evidence of Illyrio playing Viserys for a fool implies that Aegon is fake... Whether he is real or fake, he's clearly a better candidate for king than Viserys.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Oh I don't know about that. The smile seems to imply he is playing Viserys for a fool - and a fool he clearly is - and I agree this implies he has alternate plans in mind, as a fallback if nothing else. But recall the Golden Company scene with Aegon in ADWD - they talk about all the various iterations of "the plan" from Illyrio. The first plan did seem to be to get Khal Drogo to invade Westeros by way of giving him Dany, so that wasn't a total feint. It's possible they thought to set up Viserys and the Dothraki as a menace, so that fAegon can be the hero, but I'm not sure.

I don't think Aegon is real, btw, I just don't think this evidence of Illyrio playing Viserys for a fool implies that Aegon is fake... Whether he is real or fake, he's clearly a better candidate for king than Viserys.

I hear you. I think that idea about Viserys and Drogo being sent ahead to break thev realm so Aego can fix it is cockamamie. He brokered the wedding to add muscle to the Golden Company.

[LmL]

I agree that's a more logical scenario by far.

[Reposado]

nice work withe the op but if anything it proves that the concept of aegon, who i do believe is a blackfyre, was thought of in between asos and affc. there are no mentions of blackfyres in the first two books and the three mentions in asos are tangential and clearly only world building and useful in describing a particular circumstance, the same way that maegor was mention several times.

great post but your evidence supports the opposite conclusion as you wanted it to. martin came up with aegon after writing asos (possibly while writing TSS) and thus started planting seeds in affc

[Lost Melnibonean]

nice work withe the op but if anything it proves that the concept of aegon, who i do believe is a blackfyre, was thought of in between asos and affc. there are no mentions of blackfyres in the first two books and the three mentions in asos are tangential and clearly only world building and useful in describing a particular circumstance, the same way that maegor was mention several times.

great post but your evidence supports the opposite conclusion as you wanted it to. martin came up with aegon after writing asos (possibly while writing TSS) and thus started planting seeds in affc

You're missing the publishing dates. Game, Clash and Storm were all published within four years of each other. And what about Jorah's eggs? That breakfast was at the end of Game.

[In A Coat of Gold]

The biggest retort should be the implausibility of it all. Not only are Varys and Illyrio able to produce a Blackfyre claimant, that same claimant has the exact coloring and is the exact age as Rhaegar's son. Not around the same age, the exact same age. Considering the male line is dead, that would make their blood much more diluted with breeding with the Essosi.

I've already posted a thread on the time squeeze that would have to happen for Illyrio and Serra to produce Young Griff

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/121396-aegonvarysillyrioawoiaf-spoilers/?view=findpost&p=6511441

What's extremely plausible is that he's just some random kid they found in Pentos and they hatched the scheme afterward, but even that's a risk. What if Connington refuses? What if the boy doesn't look like Rhaegar enough? Why would Illyrio send him to Dany and 3 wild dragons if he wasn't the real article?

What I believe is that Aegon was born on Dragonstone, they brought a fake back to King's Landing. Varys had the real Aegon stolen after the Trident and shipped to Illyrio, and he concoted the Pisswater Prince story to embellish his part.

I keep posting this quote because it describes their motives perfectly.

Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee.

They stole Aegon and now they are selling him back for influence. Once Aegon takes the throne, Connington will meet some unfortunate end, and who will be left standing? Why, Aegon's savior Varys who will whisper in his ear and control the young king.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The biggest retort should be the implausibility of it all. Not only are Varys and Illyrio able to produce a Blackfyre claimant, that same claimant has the exact coloring and is the exact age as Rhaegar's son. Not around the same age, the exact same age. Considering the male line is dead, that would make their blood much more diluted with breeding with the Essosi.

I've already posted a thread on the time squeeze that would have to happen for Illyrio and Serra to produce Young Griff

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/121396-aegonvarysillyrioawoiaf-spoilers/?view=findpost&p=6511441

What's extremely plausible is that he's just some random kid they found in Pentos and they hatched the scheme afterward, but even that's a risk. What if Connington refuses? What if the boy doesn't look like Rhaegar enough? Why would Illyrio send him to Dany and 3 wild dragons if he wasn't the real article?

What I believe is that Aegon was born on Dragonstone, they brought a fake back to King's Landing. Varys had the real Aegon stolen after the Trident and shipped to Illyrio, and he concoted the Pisswater Prince story to embellish his part.

I keep posting this quote because it describes their motives perfectly.

They stole Aegon and now they are selling him back for influence. Once Aegon takes the throne, Connington will meet some unfortunate end, and who will be left standing? Why, Aegon's savior Varys who will whisper in his ear and control the young king.

Then why bother with the Blackfyre at all? Don't you believe a Blackfyre claimant will come round again? If so, and it's not Aegon, who is it?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

There's plenty of reason to believe there will be a final Blackfyre claimant. But there's nothing that specifically jumps out and says WHO it is. Just because Aegon is the obvious candidate doesn't mean it's him. He could be just a highly convenient smokescreen. And he can even be fake without being a Blackfyre.

[Lost Melnibonean]

There's plenty of reason to believe there will be a final Blackfyre claimant. But there's nothing that specifically jumps out and says WHO it is. Just because Aegon is the obvious candidate doesn't mean it's him. He could be just a highly convenient smokescreen. And he can even be fake without being a Blackfyre.

But given all the black and red contrasts through out the books, doesn't the Blackfyre vs. Targaryen struggle have to be a big deal? And given that The George is already two books into the second act, doesn't the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of Dragons have to be the same thing?

[In A Coat of Gold]

Then why bother with the Blackfyre at all? Don't you believe a Blackfyre claimant will come round again? If so, and it's not Aegon, who is it?

It was world building by GRRM. The only reason Aegon is linked to the Blackfyre Rebellions is the Golden Company. The same Golden Company that has been fighting in Essosi wars for decades with not a single Targaryen in their ranks. There are some exiles, but also numerous others like Black Balaq who have no connection to Westeros. Stannis wants to hire them. They were all prepped to back Viserys and Dany. The evidence suggests that they are simply sellswords now.

[Lost Melnibonean]

It was world building by GRRM. The only reason Aegon is linked to the Blackfyre Rebellions is the Golden Company. The same Golden Company that has been fighting in Essosi wars for decades with not a single Targaryen in their ranks. There are some exiles, but also numerous others like Black Balaq who have no connection to Westeros. Stannis wants to hire them. They were all prepped to back Viserys and Dany. The evidence suggests that they are simply sellswords now.

Check out the three GC captains not of Westerosi blood...

Not every captain was of Westerosi blood. Black Balaq, a white-haired Summer Islander with skin dark as soot, commanded the company's archers, as in Blackheart's day. He wore a feathered cloak of green and orange, magnificent to behold. The cadaverous Volantene, Gorys Edoryen, had replaced Strickland as paymaster. A leopard skin was draped across one shoulder, and hair as red as blood tumbled to his shoulders in oiled ringlets though his pointed beard was black. The spymaster was new to Griff, a Lyseni named Lysono Maar, with lilac eyes and white-gold hair and lips that would have been the envy of a whore. At first glance, Griff had almost taken him for a woman. His fingernails were painted purple, and his earlobes dripped with pearls and amethysts.

The Lost Lord, Dance

A black Summer Islander with green feathers, a Volantene with a black beard and red hair--black on red, and a Lyseni who is not what he appears to be at first glance.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I've just started reading the whole thing yet again (I'm like the arms of House Toland) and this leaped out...Daenerys I, Game 3

Daenerys's instincts are telling her to beware of this perfumed magister with the stench of pallid flesh beneath the heavy perfume. The George is sending us a message right off the bat. Consider this...Daenerys I, Game 3Clearly then Illyrio is not to be trusted.

Then we have this... Daenerys I, Game 3

He's hiding something isn't he? We learn later that he's been hiding Aegon? But his hiding the true son of Rhaegar, Viserys's nephew, doesn't really jibe with the tenor of this chapter, does it?

Good point. GRRM uses perfume as a way of concealing a fetid odor below to mark a character as untrustworthy. I noticed it mostly with Olenna and Lysa (both of whom were outwardly nice to Sansa but were really after her claim), and even with minor characters like Reznak or even the original Reek.

So yeah, I think Illyrio is not to be trusted.

[Knight and Dayne]

Just wanted to pop in and voice my awe and gratitude at the informativeness of the OP.

With regards to (f)Aegon's identity, I agree that the "Illyrio's secret Blackfyre" is the most likely available explanation, but my money's on "other." The timeframe argument's not perfect, but I don't think its enough to rule anything out. My (largely unevidenced at this point) belief is that Aegon's a matrilineal Blackfyre with so-far unknown parentage with Illyrio's support.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Just wanted to pop in and voice my awe and gratitude at the informativeness of the OP.

With regards to (f)Aegon's identity, I agree that the "Illyrio's secret Blackfyre" is the most likely available explanation, but my money's on "other." The timeframe argument's not perfect, but I don't think its enough to rule anything out. My (largely unevidenced at this point) belief is that Aegon's a matrilineal Blackfyre with so-far unknown parentage with Illyrio's support.

Even so, how plausible is it that they could find a scion of an extinguished line who is the same age and same coloring as Rhaegar's son? Of course, the story is as plausible as George wants it to be, but man that is extremely unlikely.

The chances of him being an absolute fake with zero Targ ancestry is a lot higher. it's not constrained by the blood relation bottleneck and is much easier to accomplish, but even still, why would Illyrio send them to Dany with her dragons if this boy wasn't real?

[LmL]

It was world building by GRRM. The only reason Aegon is linked to the Blackfyre Rebellions is the Golden Company. The same Golden Company that has been fighting in Essosi wars for decades with not a single Targaryen in their ranks. There are some exiles, but also numerous others like Black Balaq who have no connection to Westeros. Stannis wants to hire them. They were all prepped to back Viserys and Dany. The evidence suggests that they are simply sellswords now.

The worst argument anyone can ever make on the forum is "that's just world building," followed by some sort of dismissal of an idea. Firstly, there is no way that anyone can prove something doesn't have a second, hidden meaning. Second, you can't prove a negative. Third, nobody knows where George is hiding clues or not.

Lastly, and this is the big one, it reflects a lack of understanding about how George uses wordlbuilding to foreshadow future events. Lost Melnibonean made this point very well - time is a wheel (George even told us this and gave examples of how this principle works), and all things repeat in ASOIAF. The wordlbuilding hides not only factual clues about people's history, which is important context for the main story, it also contains patterns and roles which are replayed in the main story. You can't understand Rhaegar without understanding the story of Bael the Bard. George has made it abundantly clear (title of book 5, hello) that the Dance of the Dragons is going to replay itself in some way.

Lost Melnibonean's analysis throughout this piece is entirely consistent with the way that George has used wordlbuilding and foreshadowing. Your casual dismissal of multiple pieces of evidence with a "that's just wordlbuilding" just doesn't hold any water.

Your argument that the Golden Company appears to be just sell swords is terrible. "Beneath the gold, the bitter steel." "Some contracts are written in blood." Everything we know about them says they are NOT just a sell sword company. And to settle it, they decide to fight with Aegon NOT BASED ON MONEY. The argument that they are just a sell sword company is easily dismissed.

If you're going to run around loudly proclaiming in no uncertain terms that "Mance = Rhaegar," one of the worst and most impossible theories in existence, then you probably shouldn't be so quick to dismiss well researched claims by others with your own very shoddy analysis. Just my opinion.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

But given all the black and red contrasts through out the books, doesn't the Blackfyre vs. Targaryen struggle have to be a big deal? And given that The George is already two books into the second act, doesn't the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of Dragons have to be the same thing?

I didn't say it wouldn't be a big deal, just that the Blackfyre involved does not have to be Aegon. He could be the red herring and the true Blackfyre could be hidden. Dany might even need his help to take out the final BF pretender (and two against one gives pretty good odds that the red dragons will win).

Yes, the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of the Dragons should be the same thing. But Aegon is nowhere near the dragons. Is there any reason to suspect that Dany will just give him one to level the playing field? Not much of a dance if only one side has dragons. And the argument that the "dragons" who are dancing are just Targaryens doesn't wash when we have actual dragons in play too.

[LmL]

So, Mance = Rhaegar, but it's a tight squeeze logistically for Illyrio and Serra to have fathered fAegon?

But given all the black and red contrasts through out the books, doesn't the Blackfyre vs. Targaryen struggle have to be a big deal? And given that The George is already two books into the second act, doesn't the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of Dragons have to be the same thing?

Yes. Absolutely. He wrote a book called "A Dance With Dragons," followed shortly by his writing a book about the first Dance of the Dragons, a book in which we got more detail about that historical event than any other in Westeros' history. It's not really hard to see the parallel - he named the fucking book A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, just sayin. The first Dance and the Blackfyre rebellions are the only Targ civil wars we know off, and in each, two people with Targaryen blood fought for the throne. To have a dragon dance, one must have two dragons. In our main story, we have two dragons claiming the throne, each with armies who are heading into conflict. This only works of fAegon has dragon blood. Making him a commoner from Lys just doesn't seem to fit the bill.

And besides - we have a whole pile of foreshadowing that he is a Blackfyre, just as LM has documented here. It makes thematic sense, it makes narrative sense, it's been foreshadowed heavily in multiple ways.... I don't think it can be easily dismissed.