R+L=J v.138

[UnmaskedLurker]

LV--

Whether Elia believed in prophecy is not really the point. The point is whether Elia believed that Rhaegar truly believed in prophecy. Having lived with him for a few years -- and based on him referencing the prophecy in the HotU vision -- it seems likely that Elia believed that Rhaegar believed. As long as that is true, she would understand why Rhaegar would think he had to do what he was doing. Even if Elia does not have any belief at all magic or prophecies -- if she believes that Rhaegar genuinely believes, then she would know he would think he has no other choice but to take a second wife to create the third head of the dragon -- and her best move would be to support him.

[Lord Varys]

UL,

we don't know whether she believed what he said he believed. For that we would need more evidence. And her being convinced that his convinction is genuine doesn't mean she would jump on the wagon and support him. For instance, being the promised prince means a lot more for Aegon than just being second in line to the Iron Throne. Why the hell should Elia want that Rhaegar is right there or support him in that belief if she did not want that her son 'has that fate' (we don't know that this is the case).

Going through with Rhaegar suggesting to take a second wife doesn't follow from that, either. To be okay with that she would also have to believe that this is the only way. But there are plenty of other options she could up with like:

- You don't know that you have to father all the three dragon heads. Who said that? You have a brother, young Viserys, he could be the third head!

- You don't have to take a second wife, you could just father a child on a whore/mistress. Nobody ever said those dragon heads have to be legitimate children. But you could also legitimate such a child later on. You don't have to marry for that!

I have also no idea how Elia could come to the conclusion that Rhaegar 'genuinely believed' what he told her. The Lyanna idea clearly was a new thing not a belief Rhaegar had had for many years/since he knew Elia. So there is no reason to assume that she immediately approved of the idea.

Rhaegar clearly was somewhat mad in this obsession with prophecy. A sane person would inevitably have asked him 'What makes you believe that you, personally, are destined to create this savior? Don't you think prophecy can fulfill itself? What makes you believe that your interpretation of the prophecy is correct? Aren't you afraid that you make matters worse rather than better by messing with it?'

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

We know so little about Elia, sadly enough, so it is so very difficult to say what she would have thought, or done.

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother’s hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. “Aegon,” he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. “What better name for a king?”

“Will you make a song for him?” the woman asked.

“He has a song,” the man replied. “He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire.” He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany’s, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. “There must be one more,” he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. “The dragon has three heads.” He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way

I wouldn't say that this necessarily means that Elia was aware what Rhaegar was speaking about. Rhaegar often wrote songs, we know that. So Elia asking whether he would write a song for their son, is not such a strange one.

But Rhaegar believed that Aegon was the Promised Prince, so his birth will have been important to him. It could easily have filled his head with prophecy.. to a point where he could think of little else.

If Rhaegar truly looked up at the door as he does in the vision, and then went to the window seat.. That sounds a bit, to me, as someone who´s head is burried in deep thoughts.

We have no evidence that Elia loved Rhaegar, yet we do get the clear picture that Rhaegar most likely did not love her.. But that he did love Lyanna.. The fact that Barristan tells us that Rhaegar was fond of Elia, should suggest that they were at least on friendly terms.. Perhaps Jorah words it in the best way:

I suppose I came to love her after a fashion, though our relations were dutiful rather than passionate.

But we have nothing that suggests that Elia knew the details of the prophecy, or that Rhaegar had discussed it with her.. (At the same time, we also have nothing that suggests that they didn't, of course ;) ). In the vision Dany sees, just a mention is made... Was that the entire conversation? Was Rhaegar deep in thought and was Elia no longer capable of getting words of sense out of him?

Rhaegar left not too long after Aegon's birth, so there might not have been a lot of talking after the vision ended. Especially not the heavy stuff, with Elia recovering from such a heavy childbirth.

I don't think that we should dismiss the option of Elia not having known anything concrete.. Rhaegar might have mentioned things to her, but perhaps he did not explain it at those times.. And when the time came to find a third head, he decided to tell her nothing to protect her.. If she didn't know why he went or where he went, Aerys wouldn't be able to find out from her, for example.

[J. Stargaryen]

One thing you have to understand when you're discussing Rheagar with LV, is that all of his arguments stem from his belief that Rhaegar was stupid, cowardly, politically inept, and also apparently somewhat mad in his obsession about prophecy. Regarding that last part, never mind that there's a half decent chance that Rhaegar is the father of mankind's savior. In which case I'd say the ends justified the means.

[UnmaskedLurker]

LV--

Yes, all of your speculation is possible. But the one piece of evidence we actually have is Rhaegar talking to Elia about the prophecy -- calling Aegon TPTWP. While we cannot be certain, I think it is reasonable to conclude from that scene that Elia knows what Rhaegar believes. Sure, she could try to reason with him as you suggested -- but if she knows Rhaegar, she would know it would be fruitless. So if she believes he has this genuine belief that he will father the three heads (again, we don't know, but the best evidence supports it and it is not unreasonable to conclude it to be a decent possibility) and that arguing with him about other alternatives would be pointless (which I think is quite likely), then the options you outline are not really available to her. She could try to explain that maybe someone else is the third head or maybe he should just let the prophecy take care of itself -- but Rhaegar would not have listened to those arguments and Elia almost certainly knew that. So what are her best options? I think getting on board with the plan is her best option. She might conclude that her husband is a prophecy-driven nut case, but any other alternatives open to her likely make her life worse and not better (from what she could have known at the time -- given that the war would not have been foreseeable at that point).

[Ygrain]

One thing here: all of House Targaryen owed their very survival to the fact that their ancestor followed a prophecy of Daenys the Dreamer. This fact markedly decreases the assumption that belief in prophecy = nutcase.

[UnmaskedLurker]

One thing here: all of House Targaryen owed their very survival to the fact that their ancestor followed a prophecy of Daenys the Dreamer. This fact markedly decreases the assumption that belief in prophecy = nutcase.

True -- and we know that Rhaegar's parents were forced to marry due to a prophecy. It seems unlikely that Elia had heard none of these stories.

[Lord Varys]

JS,

I actually like Rhaegar a lot. I can identify with a man who is melancholic and torn between duty and desire. I just think he had his own issues that made him as dangerous to himself and others as, say, Daemon II or Aegon V. Just because he clearly was saner than his father doesn't mean the man completely sane. It is known and accepted by the Targaryens that they are special and stuff, but the usual guy does not really buy into all of that, and even the Targaryens knew that prophecy is far from precise. And as of yet we don't know whether Rhaegar himself had any prophetic dreams - it would be quite interesting if he had such dreams, actually. Interpreting other people's prophecy and risking kingdoms and the whole world on that is, frankly, insane, as such a person would be interpreting prophecy through a second source. What if Daenys' scribe had used the wrong word to describe a certain important detail. What if Rhaegar's High Valyrian was too bad to translate the prophecy correctly - if we assume that he had access to the original and not only to a translation from somebody else? And so on.

UL,

well, the outcome of this thing is that there was a fallout/quarrel between Elia and Rhaegar, and Elia (and Lewyn, and House Martell) were no longer supporting him - not against his father, and not 'in general'. That is about as likely - perhaps even more - than that Elia was happy with him taking a second wife because of 'prophecy'.

Rhaenys,

the fact that Dany feels Rhaegar looking at and (possibly) speaking to her is pretty big hint that she is part of the prophecy, presumably the promised prince Aegon was supposed to be (or at least one of the dragon heads).

I personally would be surprised if Rhaegar discussed his deepest thoughts with anyone. He conferred somewhat with Maester Aemon, and if Ser Arthur was his great friend then he may have talked to him about his heart as well, at least to a degree. But I'm expecting that the only person he truly trusted and opened up to will turn out to be Lyanna - and this will be what makes this relationship so special for him. I'd not be surprised if we heard that Lyanna and Rhaegar spent days or weeks completely alone - without Rhaegar's friends and companions - before they ended up at that tower.

The vision suggests that Rhaegar was thinking about head #3 but not necessarily in a giddy, hyperactive way. He was thoughtful and thinking about this by himself. I'd be very surprised if he told Elia anything about his plans shortly thereafter. She nearly died in childbirth and I guess the best way to ensure a swift recovery would be to tell her that he would now take a new wife as soon as possible...?

I'd not be surprised if he didn't yet know that he was going to take Lyanna when he left Dragonstone. If Rhaegar was a smart guy and not as stupid as I (may) think he was, he would do the following:

1. Aegon's birth confirms in Rhaegar's mind that he is the promised prince as he is a male child. Rhaegar also knows is convinced that Rhaenys is also one of the dragon heads.

2. What to do find out who the third head is or how he/she can be created? To go to the woman who made the 'the promised prince will be born from Rhaella/Aerys' line in the first place. This is why Rhaegar travels to the Riverlands - to talk to the Ghost at High Heart.

3. Assuming that Rhaegar did find her he'd have asked about the third dragon head specifically - as he already 'knew' that Rhaenys and Aegon were the other two heads - and another (more or less cryptic) prophecy would have led Rhaegar to the conclusion that he and Lyanna were crucial for that.

We already know that the prophecy the Ghost gave Jaehaerys wasn't very precise. Tyrion was already alive at that time, but Daenerys was not. Depending on what the Ghost did know/could uncover she may actually have smashed Rhaegar's belief that Aegon was the promised prince and Rhaenys a dragon head but that he would still father the third dragon head, with Lyanna.

I'd be even inclined to believe that Rhaegar had no intention to continue his 'Lyanna obsession' after Harrenhal until he was led to believe that this was necessary. Else there would have been a smarter way to win Lyanna's hand - like, by approaching Rickard after Harrenhal. The Crowning thing could have been a recognition for her prowess at tourney as, a way to show his feelings for her, and a farewell present as they could not really follow their hearts.

[J. Stargaryen]

Here's something I asked Elio on twitter a while back that may be of interest to some. It was brought up in the just-locked thread about RLJ being too simple.

Me: Wanted to get your take on Parris's old quote re: RLJ being too basic for GRRM. #7 http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/ConJose_San_Jose_CA_August_29_September_24 … Trolling a little?

Elio: Personally? Yes, she was having fun. She doesn't actually answer that question, after all. ;)

[markg171]

One thing here: all of House Targaryen owed their very survival to the fact that their ancestor followed a prophecy of Daenys the Dreamer. This fact markedly decreases the assumption that belief in prophecy = nutcase.

You're twisting things enormously here. Daenys was the receiver of a vision/prophecy. Rhaegar read about a prophecy that somebody else had foretold hundreds or thousands of years before. One was the source of the prophecy, the other someone who had read about someone else's prophecy.

The two aren't comparable at all.

[BearQueen87]

[snip]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Elia's silence thus far speaks volumes, IMO.

One thing here: all of House Targaryen owed their very survival to the fact that their ancestor followed a prophecy of Daenys the Dreamer. This fact markedly decreases the assumption that belief in prophecy = nutcase.

And that

True -- and we know that Rhaegar's parents were forced to marry due to a prophecy. It seems unlikely that Elia had heard none of these stories.

Also that

[UnmaskedLurker]

LV--

Well, your judgment of what is most likely and my judgment obviously are quite different. I really don't see how taking that position helps Elia. So now she has her husband, the crown prince, as her enemy? Why would she want to choose that option -- no matter how annoyed she may be by his actions?

[Octomactoe]

My gut tells me that John is the son of Ed Stark and Ashara Dayne. John is the sword of the morning. R + L = Edric Dayne

[BearQueen87]

My gut tells me that John is the son of Ed Stark and Ashara Dayne. John is the sword of the morning. R + L = Edric Dayne

Welcome to the forums.

Edric Dayne is much younger than Jon; he was born roughly 4-5 years after Jon, thus after R and L were both long dead.

[sj4iy]

My gut tells me that John is the son of Ed Stark and Ashara Dayne. John is the sword of the morning. R + L = Edric Dayne

Welcome.

My gut tells me to look at the evidence in the book, and that the evidence in the book points to his parents being Rhaegar and Lyanna ;)

Welcome to the forums.

Edric Dayne is much younger than Jon; he was born roughly 4-5 years after Jon, thus after R and L were both long dead.

^And this.

Also, Jon Snow has his own theory about it:

Jon Snow at a Dinner Party

[J. Stargaryen]

My gut tells me that John is the son of Ed Stark and Ashara Dayne. John is the sword of the morning. R + L = Edric Dayne

Welcome to the forums. :cheers:

It's pretty well established that Ned is not the father. Sean Bean said so in an interview. There's also the 1993 letter written by GRRM which makes it clear that Jon and Arya are not half-siblings; i.e., Ned is not the father. It's extremely unlikely that it's anything other than R+L=J, but if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to pick an alternative I'd choose Arthur Dayne + Lyanna, because of timeline issues mainly. Also, there seems to be some vague connection between the Starks and Daynes, plus Jon as Sword of the Morning would be somewhat appealing. Also, someone had an interesting idea about Howland Reed + Lyanna, but it's a crackpot based on another crackpot. And neither idea is anywhere near as well supported as R+L=J.

[Octomactoe]

Thanks, I'm pretty new to this theory stuff. But I thought Edric told Arya that they were milk brothers meaning they were both raised at the same time by Wyla.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Thanks, I'm pretty new to this theory stuff. But I thought Edric told Arya that they were milk brothers meaning they were both raised at the same time by Wyla.

No, milk brothers just meant that the same woman nursed them. The actual nursing occurred many years apart.

[BearQueen87]

Thanks, I'm pretty new to this theory stuff. But I thought Edric told Arya that they were milk brothers meaning they were both raised at the same time by Wyla.

Wylla never raised Jon, only nursed him and it can occur many years apart from Edric. So long as they shared the same wet nurse, they'd be milk brothers.

ETA: Ninja'd

[Ygrain]

True -- and we know that Rhaegar's parents were forced to marry due to a prophecy. It seems unlikely that Elia had heard none of these stories.

Yeah but the PTWP prophecy is, as of yet, unfulfilled, whether the Targaryens' survival is a proven fact (and all the other Valyrians who had thought them nutcases went boom).