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Jon Weirgaryen

R+L=J v.138

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And that is Martins point on the tricky nature of prophesy. He said himself that you have to treat it with caution because it usually plays out in ways the person doing the interpretation hadn't anticipated.

You aren't supposed to actually "live" by it unless you fully understand it, and as able and clever a man as Rhaegar was, I don't see any indication that he was good at it.

Going back to how the "savior" theory is conflated with the North, i.e., the Others, we never see Rhaegar apparently do anything proactive with the Wall. Usually young aristocratic men, particulary a CP would chomp at the bit to prove themselves, or take on something that they actively accomplished, and as late as Tyrion, Aemon is still begging for help for the Wall, so was he just waiting to sire the super babies?

This. I mean, I doubt that Rhaegar ever imagined that his child by Lyanna would be raised a bastard by his uncle and volunteer to spend his life on the Wall. So if Jon ends up being TPTWP, it would happen in a way that Rhaegar never planned.

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What is said on the TV show, doesn't necessarily apply to those characters in the books.. For example, there is no claim of Elia loving Rhaegar in the books..

I respectfully disagree on this one, because there is another companion piece that Pascal narrated that goes into the history of the Targaryen and the Martells which openly state that Elia did love Rhaegar and that even he, Oberyn couldn't sway her.

While I might have agreed with this early on, it seems that Martin, at this point in his writing is utilizing a lot of venues for his "information dump." I think in the early books, he couldn't have the characters Martell have a POV on Rhaegar and Elia because it was too soon to give away clues, and there was no way to have Ned, or the Martells really give any information without giving away those clues, as well as the fact the actors are openly talking if not joking about it, so I think he thinks "its time."

The closest we get finally is aDwD and Selmys telling Dany as did Aerys and Rhaella, so too did Rhaegar marry for duty. Martin still has yet to flesh out the relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, but we are getting hints.

This. I mean, I doubt that Rhaegar ever imagined that his child by Lyanna would be raised a bastard by his uncle and volunteer to spend his life on the Wall. So if Jon ends up being TPTWP, it would happen in a way that Rhaegar never planned.

Yeah, I think that is right. That a son of his would not be allowed to "touch" Prince Justin Bieber, or to be treated the way he was at times was terrible, but it might be the thing that turns him into the kind of leader he needs to be as opposed to being raised in a royal court, (though Ned did give him a noblemans upbringing and education).

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Question: but does anyone think that GRRM is going to reveal 100% R+L=J in TWOW?

Yes. I do. Or at least the most basic idea of RLJ which is that Jon is R and L's son. The other stuff--prophecy, the full version of events post HH, marriage or no marriage, ect---might be teased but only reveled full in Book 7. But yes, I think we will learn that, at the least, J is the son of R and L.

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I respectfully disagree on this one, because there is another companion piece that Pascal narrated that goes into the history of the Targaryen and the Martells which openly state that Elia did love Rhaegar and that even he, Oberyn couldn't sway her.

While I might have agreed with this early on, it seems that Martin, at this point in his writing is utilizing a lot of venues for his "information dump." I think in the early books, he couldn't have the characters Martell have a POV on Rhaegar and Elia because it was too soon to give away clues, and there was no way to have Ned, or the Martells really give any information without giving away those clues, as well as the fact the actors are openly talking if not joking about it, so I think he thinks "its time."

The closest we get finally is aDwD and Selmys telling Dany as did Aerys and Rhaella, so too did Rhaegar marry for duty. Martin still has yet to flesh out the relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, but we are getting hints.

Yeah, I think that is right. That a son of his would not be allowed to "touch" Prince Justin Bieber, or to be treated the way he was at times was terrible, but it might be the thing that turns him into the kind of leader he needs to be as opposed to being raised in a royal court, (though Ned did give him a noblemans upbringing and education).

Long standing conversation, I have with another poster and some of the Dune stuff we have talked about seems to leave me feeling Rhaegar screwed it up, or at least he screwed up what he thought he was doing, but that the screw up will in the long run pay off. He got it wrong so it will actually work out, or at least what he was expecting or thought was flawed but that flaw is what makes the prophecy work.

I also feel your right about how the actors are more loose about the subject this year, I heard Kit and Emilia talk about it, or at least joke about it. Kit never says anything about it. But it's got that feeling that something is coming. Seemed to really get started with the blue rose easter eggs, then Oberyn, and we are getting more and more clues from outside sources like the world book. Have not heard that audio you are talkiing about. Seems intresting that Oberyn would warn her off Rhaegar, I wonder if in book we eventually get a Stark parallel to that. But between the Crypts and Dorne, and maybe Selmy and Cersei we should get at the very least some book stuff about Rhaegar translated to TV. I think it's time for the unsullied to have that question placed in their head, the "oh shit" moment that Jon is not who they think he is. That is if anyone is left to be unsullied about this topic.

I agree that sources would not be adding little things like Oberyn warning Elia off of him, or his comment about love if in fact Martin did not have a connection to that. I imagine when he talks with D&D, that as fans they may of over the years asked very similar questions that we ask. Difference is they get answers, they may be broad stroke answers but they are still answers. Anyway that is where D&D get their info on such topics.

On a book it has always seemed very much that Elia was a tragedy in this, and caught in the crosssfire of the hot mess that is ASOIAF. Intresting enough Rhaegar seem to alwayss carry the grief that was Summerhal with him, and the tragedy it was, and his life also ended in tragedy as Jon like his father was born in grief.

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My take on the Martells is that they were wroth after they got the first news about Rhaegar. Considering that Rhaegar's second marriage is not public knowledge my guess is that Doran never learned anything about that particular humiliation of his house and his blood - but if Aerys knew about it in the end this could explain why he thought the Dornishmen had betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident. It is actually best to assume that Elia had no idea about the polygamy plans - if there were any when Rhaegar left which we don't know yet - as we would then have to assume that she would have sent a raven to Doran telling him about that. And this should have resulted in a Dornish rebellion rather than a Stark-Arryn-Baratheon rebellion.



In fact, if Rhaegar had publicly married Lyanna we should have expected a Martell rebellion to defend Elia's honor (and the honor of Dorne) and a Stark-Baratheon rebellion to defend Lyanna's honor.



Rhaenys,



it should all depend how quickly Aerys reacted. During Merryweather's time they did not take the rebellion seriously but I imagine that Elia was taken hostage when it became clear that Robert and his allies were a threat and that Prince Doran wasn't exactly inclined to deploy men to fight for the Targaryens (i.e. when Jon Connington was named Hand or shortly thereafter). After the Battle of the Bells the Iron Throne was desperately in need of Dornish support to hope win the war, I imagine.



And if Elia loved Rhaegar - which we do not know yet - she would have been even more hurt by Rhaegar's behavior and would have had more reason to lash out against both him and the Targaryen dynasty - as would Prince Doran himself.


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This. I mean, I doubt that Rhaegar ever imagined that his child by Lyanna would be raised a bastard by his uncle and volunteer to spend his life on the Wall. So if Jon ends up being TPTWP, it would happen in a way that Rhaegar never planned.

Agreed. I would imagine he expected a peaceful kingdom, training his 3 headed dragon up to be the PTWP. The very unexpected Son's path, sister's path, or a combination of the two and another's path, all in trial and tribulation because of your actions of trying to fulfill the prophecy is exactly the type of "it'll be true, but in an unexpected way" that Martin imagines.

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Considering that Rhaegar's second marriage is not public knowledge my guess is that Doran never learned anything about that particular humiliation of his house and his blood - but if Aerys knew about it in the end this could explain why he thought the Dornishmen had betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident.

Quite noteworthy thoughts: thanks for mentioning them, I cannot imagine that I would have got there on my own.

eta: removed a "not" that was rendering the meaning wrongly. I meant indeed: working out the thoughts I quoted here is a big achievement and new and I am very happy you shared it with us.

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And if Elia loved Rhaegar - which we do not know yet - she would have been even more hurt by Rhaegar's behavior and would have had more reason to lash out against both him and the Targaryen dynasty - as would Prince Doran himself.

Not necessarily. There are different kinds of love. Elia could have loved him--the Prince, the father of her children--without being in love with him in a more romantic sense. She is perfectly capable of loving him and wanting him to be happy, do what he needs to do if she knew about prophecy or even just taking down Aerys, and not become your cliche "scorned woman" figure when Rhaegar went off with Lyanna. Do I think she was thrilled? No, most likely not. Do I think she loathed and hated him for it? No. I think E and R were partners; I think they discussed everything. She might not have rejoiced at the idea (since it would be a headache from a political stand point) but it doesn't follow that loving R = being "more hurt" by his actions.

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Just an outside theory I have toyed with for awhile is death, love, and duty. Aemon of course once said love is the death of duty. I think in the case of the series he is right, but that it also works the other way around, duty being the death of love. Azor and Nissa, duty over love the breaking of the world. I wonder if Aemon ever said this to Rhaegar in on of his letters, and a light sort of went off. So next you have Rhaegar who married Elia out of Duty, told by Selmyy, but also that Lyanna was his lady love. Here we see love and duty again.

In the end that is what I think the resolution will come down to, Love over duty, to unbreak what was broken, though duty over love can happen again as well, or perhaps even both. I tend to feel like as it was in the past, it will be again in the future, it will repeat, the question will be posed to certain characters. Jaime deals with this subject a lot as well. Though I think it will relate to two others.

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Just an outside theory I have toyed with for awhile is death, love, and duty. Aemon of course once said love is the death of duty. I think in the case of the series he is right, but that it also works the other way around, duty being the death of love. Azor and Nissa, duty over love the breaking of the world. I wonder if Aemon ever said this to Rhaegar in on of his letters, and a light sort of went off. So next you have Rhaegar who married Elia out of Duty, told by Selmyy, but also that Lyanna was his lady love. Here we see love and duty again.

In the end that is what I think the resolution will come down to, Love over duty, to unbreak what was broken, though duty over love can happen again as well, or perhaps even both. I tend to feel like as it was in the past, it will be again in the future, it will repeat, the question will be posed to certain characters. Jaime deals with this subject a lot as well. Though I think it will relate to two others.

1) I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Aemon told Rhaegar that love is the death of duty. GRRM likes having Aemon repeat things to Jon that he has told previous Targ princes/kings.

2) Does it have to be love OVER duty? If so much of ASOIAF is about balance and harmony, then why can't it be love AND duty for there is duty in love and you can have love of duty. Why does one have to trump the other? Rhaegar might not have been choosing love over duty when he went off with L--it could be choosing love and duty (especially if he was still doing something to take down Aerys and he thought that his child with L would be PTWP). And that idea--choosing love and duty--fits nicely with Jon as the great balance.

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Not necessarily. There are different kinds of love. Elia could have loved him--the Prince, the father of her children--without being in love with him in a more romantic sense. She is perfectly capable of loving him and wanting him to be happy, do what he needs to do if she knew about prophecy or even just taking down Aerys, and not become your cliche "scorned woman" figure when Rhaegar went off with Lyanna. Do I think she was thrilled? No, most likely not. Do I think she loathed and hated him for it? No. I think E and R were partners; I think they discussed everything. She might not have rejoiced at the idea (since it would be a headache from a political stand point) but it doesn't follow that loving R = being "more hurt" by his actions.

In addition, as long Elia had no reason to believe Aegon was being passed over or she was being set aside, the Martells have more to lose by fighting Rhaegar. If they win, what do they get? The line of succession would be even more up in the air -- and as we know Robert took the crown. No matter how mad they are at Rhaegar, the future of Aegon as king eventually is more likely if they stick with Rhaegar. That is why Elia believing that Rhaegar has a genuine belief is important. If she believes that, then she can be confident that Rhaegar will do nothing to stop Aegon from becoming king, and I would think that would be her highest priority. What do the Martells have to gain by going to war against Rhaegar? They have much more to lose. Sure, ego could get in the way, but if rational heads prevail, going to war against Rhaegar would be foolish for them.

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JW,



was that irony? If not: thanks.



BQ87,



while this is all theoretically possible it does not strike me as the likely behavior of a noblewoman and princess in Westeros. No noblewoman in the series behaves like that as far as I know. And even if she privately felt like that she could hardly have repeated that view in public unless she wanted to make herself and her family look ridiculous. All Dorne would have laughed about 'Elia the Spurned' and 'Doran the Fool'.


And as of yet there are no real hints that Rhaegar and Elia were 'partners' in a modern sense. That would be nice, but as of yet I do not see that.



Imagine Cersei and Robert had been 'partners' in this sense. Would Tywin and Jaime have suffered Robert taking a second wife because of, well, 'reasons'. I very much doubt that.



UL,



we are not talking about the war here. We are talking whether Rhaegar had told Elia his plans and whether Elia approved of them - and whether Doran would have supported the Targaryens had he known what Rhaegar had done/planned to do.



This whole thing is about appearances. Words are wind, after all. And if Rhaegar had lied when he married Elia - which most included the promise not to take a second wife while she was alive - why should Elia/Doran believe Rhaegar would not also change his mind on who should succeed him on the Iron Throne. I'd not trust such a changeable person. Yesterday he believed he was the promised prince. Today it is Aegon. Who is it going to be tomorrow?



Doran did not decide to fight the Targaryens. But we know he chose to let them deal with the crisis for themselves for most of the war and only bestirred himself when the life of Elia and her children was threatened by Aerys. Again, we don't even know whether Doran knows - or knew during the war - that Rhaegar had married Lyanna (if he did that). I cannot imagine him standing idly by and accepting that if he had known about that. Then he most likely would have joined the rebels or indeed have chosen to stab Rhaegar in the back during the battle.



We have also no reason to believe that 'Aegon on the Iron Throne' was more important to Doran than the honor of his house and family and the well-being of his sister. If Doran had believed/been sure that Elia would suffer greatly/feel hurt by Rhaegar taking a second wife he most likely would have welcomed her and her children back in Sunspear and not have pursued any plans to seat Aegon on the Iron Throne. Family comes before power in Doran's case.


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1) I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Aemon told Rhaegar that love is the death of duty. GRRM likes having Aemon repeat things to Jon that he has told previous Targ princes/kings.

2) Does it have to be love OVER duty? If so much of ASOIAF is about balance and harmony, then why can't it be love AND duty for there is duty in love and you can have love of duty. Why does one have to trump the other? Rhaegar might not have been choosing love over duty when he went off with L--it could be choosing love and duty (especially if he was still doing something to take down Aerys and he thought that his child with L would be PTWP). And that idea--choosing love and duty--fits nicely with Jon as the great balance.

Well, I did say it may be both. But I look at it like this, if the imbalance is caused by what Azor did then the balance should be the inverse. Though I am not sure any one person is the great balance, I tend to take it back to maiden and lion. But in every case of unity it comes down to male and female, Jon is pretty good at being one of those, not so good with the other half of that equation, you know having a penis and all. It can go a couple ways as far as I can tell, but as it's a cycle I don't think anything is stopping but rather going back to the begining and starting over in a fundimental way.

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BQ87,

while this is all theoretically possible it does not strike me as the likely behavior of a noblewoman and princess in Westeros. No noblewoman in the series behaves like that as far as I know. And even if she privately felt like that she could hardly have repeated that view in public unless she wanted to make herself and her family look ridiculous. All Dorne would have laughed about 'Elia the Spurned' and 'Doran the Fool'.

And as of yet there are no real hints that Rhaegar and Elia were 'partners' in a modern sense. That would be nice, but as of yet I do not see that.

Imagine Cersei and Robert had been 'partners' in this sense. Would Tywin and Jaime have suffered Robert taking a second wife because of, well, 'reasons'. I very much doubt that.

Well, first: Cersei is about as far away from Elia as...well, as Robert is from Rhaegar. So that "imagine" really doesn't work at all since Cersei and Robert are really the exact opposite of R and E in terms of personality.

Second, I think you do have hints of it. We know that HH was a cover for Rhaegar meeting with the Lords of Westeros to discuss taking down Aerys. We know the Red Viper was there. We also know that E and the Oberyn were quite close. Who do you think invited the Red Viper to the tourney if not Elia? How did she know to do so if not because she and Rhaegar discussed what HH was going to be and who should attend? Why was she there so soon after giving birth, being sick, and being probably very newly pregnant if not to assist Rhaegar in his efforts?

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BearQueen,

By the time Harrenhal took place, it seems Elia had recovered as much as was possible. So why wouldn't she go then? Because she is sickly, she's not allowed to have some fun?

As to Oberyn, why can't Elia have invited him - if she had at all, as Oberyn could easily have invited himself - because the brother she was so very close to, and had always been, was in Westeros for the first time in who-knows-how-long?

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BearQueen,

By the time Harrenhal took place, it seems Elia had recovered as much as was possible. So why wouldn't she go then? Because she is sickly, she's not allowed to have some fun?

As to Oberyn, why can't Elia have invited him - if she had at all, as Oberyn could easily have invited himself - because the brother she was so very close to, and had always been, was in Westeros for the first time in who-knows-how-long?

Of course she can have fun. But this isn't any old tourney. It's a shadow play. There is something else going on underneath, something that--if discovered--could everyone killed for treason. There is fun and then there is being part of a conspiracy.

Sure Oberyn could have invited himself. He enjoys such follies. But again given the undercurrent of something else going on at HH, the people who came seem hand selected in order to hear what Rhaegar was proposing. Oberyn is more inclined to listen to Elia point out why Aerys should be removed and then take that news back to Doran. Oberyn--and everyone else--is there under the guise of a tourney and "fun" but everything under it is about secret meetings.

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Question: but does anyone think that GRRM is going to reveal 100% R+L=J in TWOW?

He pretty much said that he was going to in an interview:

"And then the other one was, of course, you know, I have certain things that I’m laying clues for that there will be revelations later on. Some people had put together those clues even as early as 1998, adding things together. I said, “What do I do with that? What do I do with that? These people have guessed the secret that I’m gonna reveal in book 6, people have already guessed that here and book 2 is just out.” You really have two choices there: you can ignore it and proceed with your plan, despite the fact that some people know where you’re going; or you can get all panicky and say “OMG, they’ve figured it out, I can’t let that be, I’ll have to change it, I’ll have to go in a different direction.” And I think some writers do that, and I think that’s always a mistake. You know, if you've planned your book that the butler did it, and then you read on the internet that someone has figured out that the butler did it and you suddenly change in midstream and it was the chambermaid who did it, then you screw up the whole book, because you get this foreshadowing early on and you’ve got these little clues you’ve planted and now they’re dead ends, and you have to introduce these other clues and now you’re retconning…it’s a mess."

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<snip>

That's a spoiler and should be in spoiler quotes. The episode is literally the day-after-tomorrow...some of us want to see it as unadulterated as possible.

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