Heresy 162

[Armstark]

Overall a decent chapter I think, although nothing much happens. Some things to take away:

LF is going to manipulate the tourney so that Harry wins a wing and has to stay at Robert's court and thus he will be in LF's realm of influence. Bronze Yohn really should have known better.

The Mad mouse might fuck things up though. Is he participating in the tourney?

Anyway I am pretty certain the marriage will never happen. Too many people don't really want it (Randa, Waynwoods, Yohn Royce, the mad mouse, Sweetrobin, and even Sansa) and of course LF already laid put the plan in detail and GRRM never lets things develop exactly the way it was planned.

Aurochs are not extinct like I thought, quite a surprise!

Edit: And yeah I almost forgot: Nothing controversial at all in the chapter! Elio and Linda really must be quite prude if they think a teenage girl flirting is controversial.

[WeaselPie]

Agreed, but also might lend support to my pick for best-random-thought-of-the-day:

Over in the thread dedicated to the new sample chapter, a few posters are discussing how Alayne is being characterized in similar ways to Jon at the feast in Book 1, with Sansa being a bit snobby towards her bastard brother in a similar way to how Harry the Heir now seems to be towards her. It's an interesting character arc for Sansa nonetheless going from being snobby towards bastards to having people be snobby to her as a bastard, but maybe part of it is just because as Phillip Frye has said, GRRM wants to keep the Stark cousins + Tyrion love triangle but has replaced Arya with Sansa. Becoming more sympathetic to bastards - which is happening with the Alayne arc - would be a necessary character development for this to happen.

I agree, and argued the point a few months ago over in general, when the 1993 letter was released. ;) Not well-received at the time!

[markg171]

In this particular case I think he is simply trying to dampen down fevered asumptions that a "Jon Targaryen" would come before Danaerys the Dragonlord in the rightful heirs stakes, but conversely its possible that young Aegon may be a retcon in order to bring a genuine dragonlord to conquer Westeros, per the synopsis, on account of Danaerys being unavoidably detained elsewhere - or possibly not. GRRM did say at one point log ago that the child in the House of the Undying vision was dead, but then again he could hardly say otherwise and technically Aegon might be dead - long live young Griff. While this might be retconning I'm still inclined to think that he was planned all along given that Starfall reference in the AFFC synopsis and the theory on these pages that Ashara took him there from Dragonstone en route to the Rhoynish pole-boat.

It also almost perfectly mimics the last Dance where the king named a girl his heir, when primogeniture would favour an available male.

Now obviously Viserys did not have a chance to consider naming Aegon his heir, but this scenario still sets up the Dance where we have the rightful heir vs the customary heir. And George did say that there would be another Dance.

[MaesterSam]

While on the subject of Dawn, I've already gone a little into my pet heresy that Arthur Dayne = Mance Rayder. I outlined in this forum, and have seen posted by others elsewhere, a lot of basics of the theory previously (ie - timeline, lack of a physical description for AD, plausibility that Night's Watch would accept him and eventually his forgotten like the Tagaryen part of Aemon's history). However, I feel that every heresy begins as a small kernel of suspicion. Like a gut reaction, there's just something about a scene/person/event that strikes you as...off. The event that sparked my curiosity into this theory started in Dance with Dragons 28...

It's said that to truly know someone, you must fight them. That being said, let's take a close look at how Mance Rayder (disguised as Rattleshirt) fights:

Once clad in mail and plate , the Lord of Bones seemed to stand a little straighter. He seemed taller too, his shoulders thicker and more powerful than Jon would have thought. It’s the armor, not the man, he told himself. Even Sam could appear almost formidable, clad head to heel in Donal Noye’s steel. The wildling waved away the shield Horse offered him. Instead he asked for a two-handed sword. “There’s a sweet sound,” he said, slashing at the air. “Flap closer, Snow. I mean to make your feathers fly.”

Jon rushed him hard. Rattleshirt took a step backwards and met the charge with a two-handed slash. If Jon had not interposed his shield, it might have staved his breastplate in and broken half his ribs. The force of the blow staggered him for a moment and sent a solid jolt up his arm. He hits harder than I would have thought. His quickness was another unpleasant surprise. They circled round each other, trading blow for blow . The Lord of Bones gave as good as he was getting. By rights the two-handed greatsword should have been a deal more cumbersome than Jon’s longsword, but the wildling wielded it with blinding speed. Iron Emmett’s fledglings cheered their lord commander at the start, but the relentless speed of Rattleshirt’s attack soon beat them down to silence. He cannot keep this up for long, Jon told himself as he stopped another blow. The impact made him grunt. Even dulled, the greatsword cracked his pinewood shield and bent the iron rim. He will tire soon. He must . Jon slashed at the wildling’s face , and Rattleshirt pulled back his head. He hacked down at Rattleshirt’s calf, only to have him deftly leap the blade. The greatsword crashed down onto Jon’s shoulder, hard enough to ding his pouldron and numb the arm beneath. Jon backed away. The Lord of Bones came after, chortling. He has no shield, Jon reminded himself, and that monster sword’s too cumbersome for parries. I should be landing two blows for every one of his. Somehow he wasn’t, though, and the blows he did land were having no effect. The wildling always seemed to be moving away or sliding sideways, so Jon’s longsword glanced off a shoulder or an arm. Before long he found himself giving more ground, trying to avoid the other’s crashing cuts and failing half the time. His shield had been reduced to kindling. He shook it off his arm. Sweat was running down his face and stinging his eyes beneath his helm. He is too strong and too quick, he realized, and with that greatsword he has weight and reach on me.It would have been a different fight if Jon had been armed with Longclaw, but …

His chance came on Rattleshirt’s next backswing. Jon threw himself forward, bulling into the other man, and they went down together, legs entangled . Steel slammed on steel. Both men lost their swords as they rolled on the hard ground. The wildling drove a knee between Jon’s legs. Jon lashed out with a mailed fist. Somehow Rattleshirt ended up on top, with Jon’s head in his hands. He smashed it against the ground, then wrenched his visor open. “If I had me a dagger, you’d be less an eye by now,” he snarled, before Horse and Iron Emmett dragged him off the lord commander’s chest. “Let go o’ me, you bloody crows,” he roared. Jon struggled to one knee. His head was ringing, and his mouth was full of blood.

He spat it out and said, “Well fought.”

“You flatter yourself, crow. I never broke a sweat.”

Mance Rayder isn't just GOOD at fighting. His agility, speed, and strength border on the supernatural. It seems (though I can't find any direct text to refute the idea) that the Night's Watch and Wildlings don't have much for armor outside of the practice ring. If Mance Rayder was just trained by the Night's Watch to fight in plate, he wouldn't be this good. His familiarity with plate mail (how to shrug off blows through correct movement and plate deflection) doesn't seem to be something they teach at Castle Black (who, in most of the training seen, use shields for protection, if any). And he wouldn't learn these skills from the Wildlings, who probably don't have access to much plate mail.

It's odd. Out of place. Unlikely skill from Mance Rayder, but not from Arthur Dayne, easily touted as the most skilled knight of his generation whose chosen weapon was the greatsword.

While this does of course leave many questions unanswered, it may well be my favorite Mance Rayder theory thus far! It would explain a few other things aside from his skill at arms... like why he wanted to go down to the crypts. His Lyanna is down there, and he wanted to pay his respects, much like Robert did. It also explains him knowing all those southern songs... and changing the Dornishman's wife lyrics to having "tasted the northman's daughter."

The Daynes respect Ned for allowing Arthur to go to the Wall instead of killing him (likely under an alias from the start, since officially he was supposed to be dead). And Mance/Arthur is willing to risk his life to save "Arya Stark"- because he owes Ned, big time.

Going to the Wall, not too far from WF, may even have allowed AD to sort of fulfil his oath of protecting baby Jon. In fact, by recognizing the threat from the North early, and assembling an army, perhaps he was planning ahead for the LN. Come to think of it, maybe the wildling army was always meant to be Jon's. (This would explain away my biggest pet peeve of the entire book series: why Mance didn't send additional wildlings across the Wall after Ygritte's group failed to take Castle Black. Why run at the Wall blindly, taking huge losses, when it would have only taken a day or two to send another party, or five, across the Wall a few miles away? Terrible strategy for someone who is otherwise so capable... unless winning was never the goal.)

The biggest problem with the theory (which applies to any theory of Mance being someone else, such as Rhaegar too) is that we are told he grew up on the Wall. Lots of brothers would have known him, and what he looked/acted like. It would be challenging to secretly replace someone who had been on the Wall his whole life.

Maybe Howland saved Ned by offering AD the Wall, and a new face? We know he had serious magical abilities, and he had recently spent two years on the isle of faces. We know from Arya that wearing someone's face also gives you their personality and at least some memories... :devil:

So yeah, some issues with this, but it's the most plausible theory I've heard so far regarding Mance's true identity. :cheers: And it opens up the incredibly awesome possibility of the new SotM being the old SotM- the greatest knight Ned ever met.

[markg171]

While this does of course leave many questions unanswered, it may well be my favorite Mance Rayder theory thus far! It would explain a few other things aside from his skill at arms... like why he wanted to go down to the crypts. His Lyanna is down there, and he wanted to pay his respects, much like Robert did. It also explains him knowing all those southern songs... and changing the Dornishman's wife lyrics to having "tasted the northman's daughter."

The Daynes respect Ned for allowing Arthur to go to the Wall instead of killing him (likely under an alias from the start, since officially he was supposed to be dead). And Mance/Arthur is willing to risk his life to save "Arya Stark"- because he owes Ned, big time.

Going to the Wall, not too far from WF, may even have allowed AD to sort of fulfil his oath of protecting baby Jon. In fact, by recognizing the threat from the North early, and assembling an army, perhaps he was planning ahead for the LN. Come to think of it, maybe the wildling army was always meant to be Jon's. (This would explain away my biggest pet peeve of the entire book series: why Mance didn't send additional wildlings across the Wall after Ygritte's group failed to take Castle Black. Why run at the Wall blindly, taking huge losses, when it would have only taken a day or two to send another party, or five, across the Wall a few miles away? Terrible strategy for someone who is otherwise so capable... unless winning was never the goal.)

The biggest problem with the theory (which applies to any theory of Mance being someone else, such as Rhaegar too) is that we are told he grew up on the Wall. Lots of brothers would have known him, and what he looked/acted like. It would be challenging to secretly replace someone who had been on the Wall his whole life.

Maybe Howland saved Ned by offering AD the Wall, and a new face? We know he had serious magical abilities, and he had recently spent two years on the isle of faces. We know from Arya that wearing someone's face also gives you their personality and at least some memories... :devil:

So yeah, some issues with this, but it's the most plausible theory I've heard so far regarding Mance's true identity. :cheers: And it opens up the incredibly awesome possibility of the new SotM being the old SotM- the greatest knight Ned ever met.

There's also this

“Who else?” Ned lifted Ice, looked down the cool steel length of it. “And it will only grow worse. The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this Kingbeyond-the-Wall for good and all.”

“Beyond the Wall?” The thought made Catelyn shudder.

Ned saw the dread on her face. “Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear.”

Ned seems to think that one day soon he will have to call his banners to fight Mance Rayder BEYOND the Wall. So far as we know, the Starks have never fought wildlings beyond the Wall, they only intervene once the wildlings get past the Wall. So why does Ned seem to think that he can't do as all of his ancestors did? Why does he think he must march past the wall and deal with Mance there instead of in his own territory which is his only concern?

Not only that, but while Ned seems intent on dealing with Mance north of the Wall instead of south of the Wall, he also doesn't think that Mance Rayder is something for them to fear. This is a man who has united all the clans, and has a host of 100,000... and Ned isn't scared of him. All in all, Ned's response to Mance Rayder is odd to say the least.

I'm inclined to think that Mance isn't secretly someone else as like you say he apparently grew up on the Wall, but it is kind of interesting that if you take the letters that make up "Mance Rayder" you can spell "Cer Ar. M. Dayne" or "Ser Arthur M. Dayne" (had a leftover M so decided that's his middle name). Not perfect, but pretty damn close.

[e1kabong]

While this does of course leave many questions unanswered, it may well be my favorite Mance Rayder theory thus far! It would explain a few other things aside from his skill at arms... like why he wanted to go down to the crypts. His Lyanna is down there, and he wanted to pay his respects, much like Robert did. It also explains him knowing all those southern songs... and changing the Dornishman's wife lyrics to having "tasted the northman's daughter."

The Daynes respect Ned for allowing Arthur to go to the Wall instead of killing him (likely under an alias from the start, since officially he was supposed to be dead). And Mance/Arthur is willing to risk his life to save "Arya Stark"- because he owes Ned, big time.

Going to the Wall, not too far from WF, may even have allowed AD to sort of fulfil his oath of protecting baby Jon. In fact, by recognizing the threat from the North early, and assembling an army, perhaps he was planning ahead for the LN. Come to think of it, maybe the wildling army was always meant to be Jon's. (This would explain away my biggest pet peeve of the entire book series: why Mance didn't send additional wildlings across the Wall after Ygritte's group failed to take Castle Black. Why run at the Wall blindly, taking huge losses, when it would have only taken a day or two to send another party, or five, across the Wall a few miles away? Terrible strategy for someone who is otherwise so capable... unless winning was never the goal.)

The biggest problem with the theory (which applies to any theory of Mance being someone else, such as Rhaegar too) is that we are told he grew up on the Wall. Lots of brothers would have known him, and what he looked/acted like. It would be challenging to secretly replace someone who had been on the Wall his whole life.

Maybe Howland saved Ned by offering AD the Wall, and a new face? We know he had serious magical abilities, and he had recently spent two years on the isle of faces. We know from Arya that wearing someone's face also gives you their personality and at least some memories... :devil:

So yeah, some issues with this, but it's the most plausible theory I've heard so far regarding Mance's true identity. :cheers: And it opens up the incredibly awesome possibility of the new SotM being the old SotM- the greatest knight Ned ever met.

Yes. We are TOLD he grew up at the wall. But not in any great detail . I think it's not too much of a stretch to say that, when Arthur Dayne arrived under a new name/face, he could easily have been lost in militaristic bureaucracy. Basically upon arriving, Dayne could forego his training at Castle Black (because he's already Arthur friggin' Dayne and don't need no training). He takes his vows and is shipped to one of the lesser-manned, peripheral castles (it seems that Mance has strong connections to the Shadow Tower) under the guise of a transfer from another post. Given how relatively disorganized the Night's Watch appears to be (slow degeneration discussed at length in the books), it makes absolute sense that the people at the peripheral castles wouldn't even think to question the background of a transfer, particularly one operating under Lord Commander's orders (which we can assume Ned would be able to work out some sort of high-command cooperation on the issue, maybe Benjen's recruitment had something to do with it?). Also, although Dayne may seem better than the normal Castle Black-trained recruit, he is trained (ie - no red flags apparent that he was hustled into the order).

So, the current members wouldn't question it and any new members wouldn't have any reason to question it either, allowing the false backstory to become an unverified piece of "common knowledge".

Also, another small bit of subtext that leads me to believe that someone else survived the ToJ that, while slight, bothered me immensely and fueled my conspiracy fires. The whole description is kind of suspect (ie - fever dream, lies to protect Jon, etc.). But here's a tiny grammatical tick that has loads of implication. This is Ned's description of Lyanna's death scene (after "The Promise"):

Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. They had found him still holding her body, silent with grief.

Almost all versions of ToJ have the same major timeline:

1. Ned, Howland Reed, and their group come into the ToJ.

2. They confront the Kingsguard that are in the tower.

3. There is a fight.

4. ??

5. Ned makes a promise.

6. Lyanna dies. Leaving Howland Reed and Ned as the reported sole survivors of the events.

I think that, regardless of what you think the promise is or why the Kingsguard was there, that timeline is pretty much agreed upon.

So, if the timeline of events is correct; if Howland Reed and Ned were the only live people left in the tower, why does Ned say "They" found him with her body? I submit that this is Ned's subtle lack-of-poker-face hint that more people survived than the official story reports. That, or the fight happened AFTER Lyanna's death. Personally, I go with the "more survivors" route because of Ned's dream. I think that it's symbolically distorted (ie - his companions are "wraiths", but the Kingsguard's faces are clear), but temporally and structurally intact.

[The Free Folk]

The biggest problem with the theory (which applies to any theory of Mance being someone else, such as Rhaegar too) is that we are told he grew up on the Wall. Lots of brothers would have known him, and what he looked/acted like. It would be challenging to secretly replace someone who had been on the Wall his whole life.

Definitely agree with this part. It's fun thinking of and reading these Mance = x theories, but I can't really get on board at the moment with Mance's identity being anyone else than what we're told (i.e. a wildling baby raised by the Watch who then deserted). I certainly agree that there's something more to his character than we've been told but trying to equate Mance with some known character such as Arthur Dayne, I think, gets away from the more interesting questions of what Mance really wants.

[Black Crow]

Over in the thread dedicated to the new sample chapter, a few posters are discussing how Alayne is being characterized in similar ways to Jon at the feast in Book 1, with Sansa being a bit snobby towards her bastard brother in a similar way to how Harry the Heir now seems to be towards her. It's an interesting character arc for Sansa nonetheless going from being snobby towards bastards to having people be snobby to her as a bastard, but maybe part of it is just because as Phillip Frye has said, GRRM wants to keep the Stark cousins + Tyrion love triangle but has replaced Arya with Sansa. Becoming more sympathetic to bastards - which is happening with the Alayne arc - would be a necessary character development for this to happen.

:agree:

I need to read it through again but I'm liking the idea of Sansa being substituted for Arya ever more appealing and this chapter does support the idea. I also still think that my suggestion of the snowflake communion which they and only they have shared is a very big pointer.

[Black Crow]

Definitely agree with this part. It's fun thinking of and reading these Mance = x theories, but I can't really get on board at the moment with Mance's identity being anyone else than what we're told (i.e. a wildling baby raised by the Watch who then deserted). I certainly agree that there's something more to his character than we've been told but trying to equate Mance with some known character such as Arthur Dayne, I think, gets away from the more interesting questions of what Mance really wants.

Again I agree. I think that there may well be a mystery over Mance's true origins, but I still see it as being who he was before he was taken in by the Watch. as a boy. Osha certainly doesn't consider him a wildling born.

[Black Crow]

...Almost all versions of ToJ have the same major timeline:

1. Ned, Howland Reed, and their group come into the ToJ.

2. They confront the Kingsguard that are in the tower.

3. There is a fight.

4. ??

5. Ned makes a promise.

6. Lyanna dies. Leaving Howland Reed and Ned as the reported sole survivors of the events.

I think that, regardless of what you think the promise is or why the Kingsguard was there, that timeline is pretty much agreed upon.

So, if the timeline of events is correct; if Howland Reed and Ned were the only live people left in the tower, why does Ned say "They" found him with her body? I submit that this is Ned's subtle lack-of-poker-face hint that more people survived than the official story reports. That, or the fight happened AFTER Lyanna's death. Personally, I go with the "more survivors" route because of Ned's dream. I think that it's symbolically distorted (ie - his companions are "wraiths", but the Kingsguard's faces are clear), but temporally and structurally intact.

Ah well, here you'll find that we miserable heretics don't go with this timeline at at all. GRRM has very firmly said that the "fever dream" is not literal and there's a fair consensus in these here parts that the dream relates to two separate incidents.

[e1kabong]

Ned seems to think that one day soon he will have to call his banners to fight Mance Rayder BEYOND the Wall. So far as we know, the Starks have never fought wildlings beyond the Wall, they only intervene once the wildlings get past the Wall. So why does Ned seem to think that he can't do as all of his ancestors did? Why does he think he must march past the wall and deal with Mance there instead of in his own territory which is his only concern?

Not only that, but while Ned seems intent on dealing with Mance north of the Wall instead of south of the Wall, he also doesn't think that Mance Rayder is something for them to fear. This is a man who has united all the clans, and has a host of 100,000... and Ned isn't scared of him. All in all, Ned's response to Mance Rayder is odd to say the least.

I'm inclined to think that Mance isn't secretly someone else as like you say he apparently grew up on the Wall, but it is kind of interesting that if you take the letters that make up "Mance Rayder" you can spell "Cer Ar. M. Dayne" or "Ser Arthur M. Dayne" (had a leftover M so decided that's his middle name). Not perfect, but pretty damn close.

So, funnily enough, Mance Rayder's name has always bugged me, too. The anagram is a new idea. Pretty shaky, but I like it.

However, why does Mance have the surname "Rayder". Everything we know about naming conventions in the World indicates that Mance should simply be called "Mance". Wildlings appear not to use Surnames, favoring single names with, possibly, a nickname. Westerosi only have a family name if they either are, or were originally, a "House". So, if Mance's backstory is accurate, he wouldn't have received his name from the Wildlings he was with, nor is it likely that he would have been given a surname from his care-takers in the Night's Watch. It also doesn't appear to be a name that Mance took up after his time at the Wall, because it seems that the Watch's history with him is logged with the full name.

Again, nothing concrete, but something that always niggles at me regarding the "Mance is someone else" theories.

[The Free Folk]

Something that just occurred to me and seems so darn obvious: maybe Rayder was just a surname given to Mance once he was taken by the Watch - i.e. giving him a surname to make him seem more 'civilized' and Westerosi but one that was conceived to point to his Wildling (i.e. raider) background?

[markg171]

So, funnily enough, Mance Rayder's name has always bugged me, too. The anagram is a new idea. Pretty shaky, but I like it.

However, why does Mance have the surname "Rayder". Everything we know about naming conventions in the World indicates that Mance should simply be called "Mance". Wildlings appear not to use Surnames, favoring single names with, possibly, a nickname. Westerosi only have a family name if they either are, or were originally, a "House". So, if Mance's backstory is accurate, he wouldn't have received his name from the Wildlings he was with, nor is it likely that he would have been given a surname from his care-takers in the Night's Watch. It also doesn't appear to be a name that Mance took up after his time at the Wall, because it seems that the Watch's history with him is logged with the full name.

Again, nothing concrete, but something that always niggles at me regarding the "Mance is someone else" theories.

Well the other thing at least with the anagram idea is that at least some Dornish do have middle names: the Martells. So it's possible that Daynes do as well, which could explain the extra M. In which case it could fit Arthur Dayne almost exactly, with only "Ser" being spelled wrong. Still not perfect, but really damn close, and at least phonetically the same.

The other thing with the name is that Rayder, as has been pointed out, seems to be a misspelling of "raider". But equally so, I think we can say that Mance is a misspelling of "manse". Which would make Mance Rayder, the manse raider. Phonetically the same, but spelled wrong, same as Cer Ar Dayne

On the other hand, if we take a look at Mance's origin story

"For a wench, some say. For a crown, others would have it." Qhorin tested the edge of his sword with the ball of his thumb. "He liked women, Mance did, and he was not a man whose knees bent easily, that's true. But it was more than that. He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home again."

It doesn't exactly make sense that wildling raiders would be carting around a child while they're out raping and pillaging.

Which leads me to believe that if this story has truth in it and its not just some cover up for Arthur Dayne, then it was the Watch that raided the wildlings, putting their home, or manse, to the torch. When they needed a name for the child, they just took exactly what they were: "manse raider" or "Mance Rayder". Or for whatever reason the wildlings were indeed carting around a kid on a raid and happened to be raiding a manse, making him "manse raider".

This interpretation would therefore be that Mance Rayder isn't a name, it's a title or epithet.

[Voice]

Takeaways from Alayne:

• It seems as if we're being presented with an ultimatum: Tyrion can live or Sansa can be happy.
  
• Sansa has been manipulated by many people over the past two years. I looks like she's learned a lesson or two from the experience.
  
• The Vale might be the only place prepared for Winter. All seems happy. That's never good in this world. The tourney was called to create an 8-member Lordsguard. And we know fAegon's landed just to the south.
  
• Bit of fodder for tymbq crowd.
  
• The tapestries remind me of buying wheat when it was plentiful and selling bread when it was scared. LF is now breeding favors and alliances along with his dragons.
  
• "Horns sounded from atop the wall"
  
• Sansa seems to be in her house with a red door
  
• The cake had required every lemon in the Vale, but Petyr had promised that he would send to Dorne for more. Why not Braavos? LOL
  
• Cinderella's Ball
  
• For not knowing how to flirt, she sure does it well. The seduction of Harry the Heir reminded me of Cersei's mastery of men. She's not a water dancer or a faceless man, but she's had some masterful instructors of her own.
  

[Voice]

Ah well, here you'll find that we miserable heretics don't go with this timeline at at all. GRRM has very firmly said that the "fever dream" is not literal and there's a fair consensus in these here parts that the dream relates to two separate incidents.

Though I've fervently defended the faithful's right to worship the good book, I must agree that we cannot trust the timeline as given in Ned's dream. Ned's dream is a dream of guilt, not revelation.

So, funnily enough, Mance Rayder's name has always bugged me, too. The anagram is a new idea. Pretty shaky, but I like it.

However, why does Mance have the surname "Rayder". Everything we know about naming conventions in the World indicates that Mance should simply be called "Mance". Wildlings appear not to use Surnames, favoring single names with, possibly, a nickname. Westerosi only have a family name if they either are, or were originally, a "House". So, if Mance's backstory is accurate, he wouldn't have received his name from the Wildlings he was with, nor is it likely that he would have been given a surname from his care-takers in the Night's Watch. It also doesn't appear to be a name that Mance took up after his time at the Wall, because it seems that the Watch's history with him is logged with the full name.

Again, nothing concrete, but something that always niggles at me regarding the "Mance is someone else" theories.

Mance Rayder always sounded like a simple play on words: a wildling "manse raider."

[aDanceWithFlagons]

Well my thoughts are that the Giants weren't chained literally but rather figuratively, as in by magic by the Children. For what purpose, no idea but certainly related to their hypothetical feud/conflict. And they were 'freed' by the Northmen led by the Stark in Winterfell who sought to sever the relationship or free Men from magic, which I am theorizing lines up with the overthrow of the NK.

Anyway, I went back to dig up some of my earlier posts on the giants that I was working out and found this from Heresy 129. The tl;dr version is that the old tales we have of giants do not sound like the giants we've met at all, but sound more like the Children. Which led me back then to wonder if the Giants were enslaved magically by the Children as the sort of fighting force in the war with men. Hence, them being 'brothers and bane' - on the same side though in a coercive way. I'm not sure yet how it all ties together, and I haven't even thought to look at it in relation to Rayum Redbeard or other Kings Beyond the Wall, but I think the main idea is that the Umber sigil refers to the Giants being freed from the Children or more broadly, the 'overthrow' or disappearance of the Old Powers.

cool

I remember this and something in the last thread or three brought to this to mind. Glad you dropped in with these ideas.

[MaesterSam]

There's also this

Ned seems to think that one day soon he will have to call his banners to fight Mance Rayder BEYOND the Wall. So far as we know, the Starks have never fought wildlings beyond the Wall, they only intervene once the wildlings get past the Wall. So why does Ned seem to think that he can't do as all of his ancestors did? Why does he think he must march past the wall and deal with Mance there instead of in his own territory which is his only concern?

Not only that, but while Ned seems intent on dealing with Mance north of the Wall instead of south of the Wall, he also doesn't think that Mance Rayder is something for them to fear. This is a man who has united all the clans, and has a host of 100,000... and Ned isn't scared of him. All in all, Ned's response to Mance Rayder is odd to say the least.

I'm inclined to think that Mance isn't secretly someone else as like you say he apparently grew up on the Wall, but it is kind of interesting that if you take the letters that make up "Mance Rayder" you can spell "Cer Ar. M. Dayne" or "Ser Arthur M. Dayne" (had a leftover M so decided that's his middle name). Not perfect, but pretty damn close.

Mance's treatment of Jon is also a bit fishy. Jon is a Stark, from the most honorable Northern family, which has also probably killed the most wildlings of any house. The nephew of the First Ranger. Yet he completely buys his desertion story, and immediately includes Jon in his inner circle, and even sends him along on the mission across the Wall. Why?! His raiders have crossed the Wall half a hundred times- they know the way to Castle Black. Sending Jon along is taking a huge risk. Even if he deserted for real- would he be able to kill his former brothers, attacking them unawares in the night? Mance is way too comfortable around Jon way too quickly.

[Voice]

Alayne afterthought... Mayhaps she will persuade LF to give Jon bargain priced stores for Winter.

And I can't help but think Fuck you LF for this jab at Ned haha

Horrible Ser Harrold. “ He is.” Lord Belmore laughed. “I never thought Royce would let him come. Is he blind, or merely stupid?”

“He is honorable. Sometimes it amounts to the same thing..."

[MaesterSam]

Yes. We are TOLD he grew up at the wall. But not in any great detail . I think it's not too much of a stretch to say that, when Arthur Dayne arrived under a new name/face, he could easily have been lost in militaristic bureaucracy. Basically upon arriving, Dayne could forego his training at Castle Black (because he's already Arthur friggin' Dayne and don't need no training). He takes his vows and is shipped to one of the lesser-manned, peripheral castles (it seems that Mance has strong connections to the Shadow Tower) under the guise of a transfer from another post. Given how relatively disorganized the Night's Watch appears to be (slow degeneration discussed at length in the books), it makes absolute sense that the people at the peripheral castles wouldn't even think to question the background of a transfer, particularly one operating under Lord Commander's orders (which we can assume Ned would be able to work out some sort of high-command cooperation on the issue, maybe Benjen's recruitment had something to do with it?). Also, although Dayne may seem better than the normal Castle Black-trained recruit, he is trained (ie - no red flags apparent that he was hustled into the order).

So, the current members wouldn't question it and any new members wouldn't have any reason to question it either, allowing the false backstory to become an unverified piece of "common knowledge".

Also, another small bit of subtext that leads me to believe that someone else survived the ToJ that, while slight, bothered me immensely and fueled my conspiracy fires. The whole description is kind of suspect (ie - fever dream, lies to protect Jon, etc.). But here's a tiny grammatical tick that has loads of implication. This is Ned's description of Lyanna's death scene (after "The Promise"):

Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. They had found him still holding her body, silent with grief.

Almost all versions of ToJ have the same major timeline:

1. Ned, Howland Reed, and their group come into the ToJ.

2. They confront the Kingsguard that are in the tower.

3. There is a fight.

4. ??

5. Ned makes a promise.

6. Lyanna dies. Leaving Howland Reed and Ned as the reported sole survivors of the events.

I think that, regardless of what you think the promise is or why the Kingsguard was there, that timeline is pretty much agreed upon.

So, if the timeline of events is correct; if Howland Reed and Ned were the only live people left in the tower, why does Ned say "They" found him with her body? I submit that this is Ned's subtle lack-of-poker-face hint that more people survived than the official story reports. That, or the fight happened AFTER Lyanna's death. Personally, I go with the "more survivors" route because of Ned's dream. I think that it's symbolically distorted (ie - his companions are "wraiths", but the Kingsguard's faces are clear), but temporally and structurally intact.

Yeah, so here's the thing.... some of us here don't actually believe the TOJ and Lyanna's death are part of the same incident (myself included). But it would still be interesting to know who was with Ned and Howland when they found Lyanna, as this person likely knows some key information.

Perhaps you're right, and Mance really did join much later and then a story was made up. We have seen one or two other examples of NW brothers lying about why they are there.

As for the name- I find it strange that he has a last name at all. Last names seem to be for nobles in Westeros, and any wildling last names seem to be more descriptive than anything (Thormund Thunderfist, Varamyr Sixskins). If it was Raider, that would work (though be somewhat uncreative compared to the others), but Rayder seems like an actual name. Which is weird, beyond the Wall.

How old was he when they found him anyway? Did he already have this name? I kind of doubt the NW would have invented a last name for a wildling kid, given that most of their own men don't even have two names. It all feels a little bit "off".

[MaesterSam]

Takeaways from Alayne:

• It seems as if we're being presented with an ultimatum: Tyrion can live or Sansa can be happy.

Sansa has been manipulated by many people over the past two years. I looks like she's learned a lesson or two from the experience.

The Vale might be the only place prepared for Winter. All seems happy. That's never good in this world. The tourney was called to create an 8-member Lordsguard. And we know fAegon's landed just to the south.

Bit of fodder for tymbq crowd.

The tapestries remind me of buying wheat when it was plentiful and selling bread when it was scared. LF is now breeding favors and alliances along with his dragons.

"Horns sounded from atop the wall"

Sansa seems to be in her house with a red door

The cake had required every lemon in the Vale, but Petyr had promised that he would send to Dorne for more. Why not Braavos? LOL

Cinderella's Ball

For not knowing how to flirt, she sure does it well. The seduction of Harry the Heir reminded me of Cersei's mastery of men. She's not a water dancer or a faceless man, but she's had some masterful instructors of her own.

OOOOh I did not know this was posted! Excuse me while I go read- this is SO exciting!!