(TWOW Spoilers) From Pawn to Player: Rethinking Sansa XXII

[Harry the Hair]

May be as simple as Wallace wanting to compete and Lady Anya, if she's an affectionate mother, allowing it.

Wallace may actually be a decent jouster. He probably wanted a shot at getting the wings and Anya allowed it.

[Bran Vras]

You mention that you understand lordlings as sons of lords but not necessarily heirs; to that, I’d like to add that it doesn’t necessarily mean sons of lords either, it does refer to minor lords themselves, as in princelings for minor princes; so the lordlings the daughters of Lady Jocelyn married could have been minor lords themselves, and the Waynwoods definitely qualify as they’re not pretty prominent in rank. A daughter of Lady Jocelyn married to a Waynwood lord who was in turn the father of Lady Waynwood does fit under this reasoning, though the timeline is giving us trouble.

Also, there's this line describing her sons:

Ser Roland was the oldest of the three, though no more than five-and-twenty. He was taller and more muscular than Ser Wallace, but both were long-faced and lantern-jawed, with stringy brown hair and pinched noses. Horsefaced and homely, Alayne thought.

That also plays into your theory, because not all the Starks are “horsefaced” as this description also includes a salient mouth/teeth and not just the shape of the face, but theirs is a characteristically long face, which is how Jon’s and Ned’s faces are described, whilst the “horseface” description is limited to Arya only so far as we know, whilst more Starks do have those long and stern faces as described in the statues at the crypts.

Thank you Milady. All your remarks are spot on. To be fair, one should add that Sansa never seems to notice a family resemblance.

A few more thoughts on the timeline, Sansa reflects that Robb would be of Ser Wallace's age, seventeen I think. Ser Roland is aged less than twenty five, not necessarily twenty five. I added needlessly a generation in the first option (Lady Waynwood's mother was the daughter of Jocelyn Stark, not her granddaughter).

So here is a revised timeline. Ser Wallace born in 283, Ser Roland born between 275 and 280, Ser Morton born between 260 and 265, Lady Anya born between 240 and 250, Lady Anya's mother was born around 225-230, and Jocelyn Stark perhaps 210. Since there is no sign that Edwyle, who was Jocelyn's elder brother, was at the Battle of Long Lake (it's Artos the Implacable who took the command after the death of Lord Willam), it might be important that Edwyle was not old enough to fight in 226 (unless Edwyle was the Stark required to stay in Winterfell, in which case he was dispensed of the battle).

[Mithras]

Jocelyn Stark could not have been born much before than Edwyle. Lyanne Glover died in giving birth to Old Nan's Brandon. After Lyanne's death, William married Melantha, fathered Jocelyn&Edwyle and died in 226. So, I think there is a tight interval for both Edwyle's and Jocelyn's birth.

Another fact is that during the she-wolves period (around 212), both William and his elder brother Lord Donnor should not be adults.

So, there seems to be a tight schedule for Anya to be Jocelyn's granddaughter. Not impossible but they should all give birth around 15-18 or so.

ETA: It is confirmed in the Stark tree that Edwyle was older than Jocelyn.

[Colonel Green]

Jocelyn Stark could not have been born much before than Edwyle. Lyanne Glover died in giving birth to Old Nan's Brandon. After Lyanne's death, William married Melantha, fathered Jocelyn&Edwyle and died in 226. So, I think there is a tight interval for both Edwyle's and Jocelyn's birth.

Another fact is that during the she-wolves period (around 212), both William and his elder brother Lord Donnor should not be adults.

So, there seems to be a tight schedule for Anya to be Jocelyn's granddaughter. Not impossible but they should all give birth around 15-18 or so.

Do we actually know which marriage came first?

Though regardless, a sequence of births at 15-18 is really not unusual for this series, compared to some of the births necessary for the Targaryen family tree to work.

[Mithras]

Do we actually know which marriage came first?

Though regardless, a sequence of births at 15-18 is really not unusual for this series, compared to some of the births necessary for the Targaryen family tree to work.

It is not known which marriage occurred first. But if Melantha was William's first wife, she obviously should die before William married Lyanne. The only thing mentioned is that Lyanne died giving birth to a Brandon and that one is 99.9% the Brandon of Old Nan. I personally like to take Old Nan as a wildling captured similar to Osha. If she came with Raymun's host, Lyanne being the second marriage works better for this scenario. Or perhaps she came years before Raymun just like Osha came years before Mance. In that case, Lyanne being the first wife works too. Old Nan said all crows were liars and I like to take that as she was betrayed by a brother of the NW (maybe similar to Ygritte-Jon dynamic) and left with a child in her belly.

But in any case, it does not matter much because both Donnor and William should not be adults while the she-wolves were playing their games (post 212). So, William and Donnor should be born well after 200. Perhaps they were born in the Vale because Beron had a Royce wife and he most probably spent the Great Spring Sickness (209) at the safety of the Vale while his father and elder brother perished probably due to Spring. Perhaps they even spent the winter before the Great Spring Sickness at the Vale too.

In addition, one of the reasons why Raymun made his attack might be the instability caused by the she-wolves and the existence of boy Lords at Winterfell.

[AliceRose]

What do you think about Randa's desire to marry Petyr?

[Mithras]

What do you think about Randa's desire to marry Petyr?

From what I have seen, both Nestor and Randa are ambitious and corrupt.

[Bran Vras]

About the Starks a hundred year ago, Mithras is right that Brandon, son of Willam, is probably Old Nan's Brandon. If that's true, Brandon can't reasonably be born before 220. I was convinced that he was born of Willam's first marriage, but there is really no evidence. If he was born of Willam's second marriage, it means that Willam remained celibate during at least three years (Brandon died at three, and was never lord of Winterfell). One clue might be that Brandon died of a summer chill. What do we know of the passing of seasons at that time? Perhaps, Edwyle and Jocelyn were raised in the south by Melantha, which is why Jocelyn ended up marrying in the Vale. Edwyle was recalled to Winterfell when Brandon died, or when Lord Willam died. I am sure GRRM will find a way to explain the conundrum he has sent us into.

I feel a bit guilty to have oriented the discussion toward the Starks a hundred years ago. Let me add another little contribution on the current chapter.

What do you think about Randa's desire to marry Petyr?

Already in AFfC, we see an interesting theme in the Vale that we don't see much elsewhere in Westeros. The nobility is impoverished, and cohabitates with a wealthy merchant class (in Gulltown, and in the person of Littlefinger). Perhaps this has to do with the proximity of Braavos. The nobility of the Vale is torn between the values of the class system and the temptation to marry for money. Of course, those who succumb expose themselves to the scorn of those who don't. There is a financial anxiety in Randa (she complains that the guests eat too much), which explains why she might want to marry Littlefinger who can easily fund the lavish feast.

Even Randyll Tarly is aware of this tension when he tells Brienne:

The lords of the Vale are not the sort to bend their knees to some upjumped jackanapes whose only skill is counting coppers.

(A meaningful sentence, in my opinion.)

[Mithras]

We know that a hot summer persisted for the first seven years of Maekar's reign, which corresponds to 221-228. Brandon got his summer chill during this era.

I also do not discount the possibility that when William died at 226, his second wife (whoever she was) might be pregnant to his last child (Brandon or Jocelyn). If Brandon was born in 226-227, his death coincides with the end of the long summer, which was followed by a short autumn and a long, cold winter.

I think it is important to trace the Stark line in the Vale. George obviously has something in mind. The World Book and this Alayne chapter show that these connections might surface up.

I also think that Randyll represents the old-fashioned feudalism which is histrocially behind the developments in the Vale. So, I don't think what he said is true, at least for some of the Lords concerned.

[Colonel Green]

Concerning the timing of the births, keep in mind that it's widely speculated that Old Nan is the pretty young woman seen making out with Dunk, which would means she would have to be in Winterfell for when Dunk and Egg arrive in "She-Wolves of Winterfell", set circa 212 AC.

[Lyanna Stark]

For Varys and the Tyrells, it'd be easier because they know LF and they'd know he doesn't have a daughter, the former in particular, but we have no idea of what Bolton knows; so I'm thinking that perhaps he won't. But more than anything it's because of how things are going on for the Boltons: between Cersei's fall and Stannis at the Gates, the Boltons have enough trouble on their plate for the revelation of Sansa at the Vale to perhaps be of much greater impact than that, and more so if Rickon reappears first. Littlefinger is practically in the same position as them, in a way, as both depend on a Stark girl to succeed, and without the Stark girl, they're in trouble. I'd be looking for parallels in both Bolton-Baelish situations, therefore.

I had some thoughts on this earlier but got waylaid by the holidays.

In any case, lots of people think that lots of characters know who Sansa is. I disagree and I will try to put into context why only Kettleblack, Lothor Brune and Littlefinger know who she is.

Bronze Yohn Royce: If he indeed recognised Sansa and unerstood who she was, logically he should have said something at the time. If he only figured it out a bit later, logically he should have tried to contct her, yet he does nothing. If he knew the last Stark was masquerading as LF's daughter, Bronze Yohn would be all over that one. Instead we have a whole lot of nothing, and that seems an unlikely reaction from him.

Harry the Heir: I've seen arguments that Harry is actually clever and that nobody would be that dumb and insult LF's bastard like that, but to me it makes perfect sense that he does. Even if Harry himself is only of middling rank now, look at his shield when he rides in. He knows Sweetrobin will die fairly soon and then he will be Lord Arryn. Most likely, in Harry's mind, he's already stepping into the Lord Arryn shoes, so of course it rankles for such a high lord to be to be saddled with a bastard, even if she is pretty and extremely rich. Especially since Harry has no shortage of pretty girls to choose from of similar or slightly lower rank. Alayne is just more of the same, at least up until the moment she impresses him with her wit.

Randa Royce: I actually think Randa is just tacky. She comments on LF's little finger already in AFFC and embarrasses Sansa, so it seems to be just her way. While she is definitely clever, there is genuine feeling in her resentment over Alayne marrying Harry, which she would not display had she known Alayne was actually Sansa Stark Mrs Lannister. For one, Sansa outranks Randa by a lot, and secondly, Sansa is married, meaning she cannot marry Harry, making Randa's complaint make no sense. Bigamy is not allowed, unless your surname is Targaryen. Either Randa is lying about her resentment (although Sansa seems to think it is real) or she doesn't know who "Alayne" really is. Both can't be true.

The Tyrells: This is why I highlighted Milady's post above. If we look at where the Tyrells are at the end of ADWD, it's not looking too good. Loras Tyrell is AWOL, probably seriously injured. Margaery is in trouble with the Faith (albeit released remporarily to Randyll Tarly). Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly are on the small council, which is probably in shambles after Kevan's death. Olenna Tyrell is back in Highgarden, presumably, leaving Mace in charge, and he's not too clever. Tarly is smarter, and while he counts as a Tyrell more or less, he's still his own man and has some reason to be pissed at the Tyrells (Brightwater Keep went to Garlan instead of to Tarly through his Florent wife). In any case, the Tyrells have a weak leader in Mace and and a competent but rigid justicar in Tarly.They also have their hands full with the issues of the Faith and will have more issues after Kevan's death, plus incoming Sand snakes from Dorne to deal with. It seems to me the Tyrells' interest in Sansa's whereabouts is far, far down the list of issues. Also considering Willas will be dealing with assault by the Ironborn on the Reach itself, Sansa is sort of...inconsequential to the Tyrells in the larger scheme of things. So amidst everything else, I am not sure the Tyrells care all that much for possible rumours of Sansa Stark sightings in the Vale.

Varys: Varys is not the spymaster anymore. In fact, he has no position in Kings Landing at all after Tyrion's disappearance. So whatever Varys does or doesn't know, nobody else will know. He certainly does not seem to be in league with the Tyrells so far, and why would he be? Varys is currently on Team Aegon, so he's not going to tell the Tyrells or the Lannisters anything. Hence Varys' knowledge or lack thereof when it comes to Sansa currently doesn't matter. Plus even if Varys has his little birds, he is as of the end of ADWD still without official postion. He might have read Grand Maester Pycelle's post after he murdered him, but it seems unlikely he would be getting the "official" post via raven since he officially doesn't exist in Kings Landing. If Varys does have lines of communications open, they will most likely concern Aegon and JonCon's progress more than they will concern the rest of the realm. That's not to say Varys won't pick up anything he can, but currently his focus lies elsewhere than on fake daughters of LF.

The Lannisters: Yes, the Lannisters, currently consisting of King Tommen Baratheon - Lannister and his disgraced mother. I think Cersei is more concerned with her impending trial and getting out of that bind than with Sansa. Further, as far as we know, Cersei is no longer on the Small Council. As a disgraced queen she has no formal power. With Grand Maester Pycelle and Kevan gone, she has no formal Lannister power to lean on in Kings Landing either. Cersei is truly alone now.

In general: Even if news still travel, the focus on the news is on big things going on more than on LF having acquired an uncommonly pretty bastard daughter. With so many things going on and so much strife, fighting and winter around the corner, it seems to me people's focus will be elsewhere than LF's bastard daughter. Besides, we do know it is considered impolite to comment or inquire after a man's "natural daughter", as LF himself points out earlier. (Making Alayne's commentary to Harry the more interesting.)

From what I have seen, both Nestor and Randa are ambitious and corrupt.

How is Randa corrupt exactly? Ambitious, sure, but corrupt?

[Lyanna Stark]

The other thing is that he can testify that he was bribed by Lord Baelish to ruin the talks between him and the Lords Declarent - which by itself would be quite enough to ruin Littlefinger's political position in the Vale and he is militarily vulnerable now that Sweetrobin has come down from the Eyrie.

The man has really greased his own tightrope.

Indeed. As you pointed out, LF's plans are so risky as to be idiotic and to borrow from modern terminology, LF's propensity to YOLO it is very likely going to bite him in the posterior very soon. Lyn is one of those very interesting loose cannons with potentially lethal information about Littlefinger. I do believe GRRM has mentioned before how LF may have issues coming his way now when he's rocketed himself into a position of authority and responsibility. He can't just scheme and hope for those more powerful to fail since he now IS the more powerful.

The issue for me is how might Sansa look to extricate herself post Littlefinger? Does she come out of the closet wearing grey and white in which case every man with a pulse is going to be after her claim or does she plead the mother in Braavos and attempt to take ship there setting herself up for a reunion with Arya? Could she beat off the men who might marry her with a stick and set herself up as regent for her cousin Sweetrobin?

I am thinking more along the lines of a quiet get the hell outta dodge getaway once LF is gone. Potentially with the assistance of some of the people who might take over after LF, like Bronze Yohn, Anya Waynwood or Myranda Royce. OR, she might not extricate herself at all, given that everyone and their dog knows she is married to one Tyrion Lannister and as such, she cannot be married again. However, she is still put in a difficult position as Sweetrobin's not quite guardian, yet she does have influence over him. I guess it depends who that guardian will be. If it's Bronze Yohn Royce, I doubt she'd get a lookin with regards to ruling, but with someone else...potentially? It will also depends strongly on the time scale and who comes knocking, whether that is Brynden Tully, Aegon the fake Targaryen or Daenerys Stormborn with Drogon. These impending visitors would surelyinspire different responses.

[DogLover]

I had some thoughts on this earlier but got waylaid by the holidays.

In any case, lots of people think that lots of characters know who Sansa is. I disagree and I will try to put into context why only Kettleblack, Lothor Brune and Littlefinger know who she is.

<snip>

Randa Royce: I actually think Randa is just tacky. She comments on LF's little finger already in AFFC and embarrasses Sansa, so it seems to be just her way. While she is definitely clever, there is genuine feeling in her resentment over Alayne marrying Harry, which she would not display had she known Alayne was actually Sansa Stark Mrs Lannister. For one, Sansa outranks Randa by a lot, and secondly, Sansa is married, meaning she cannot marry Harry, making Randa's complaint make no sense. Bigamy is not allowed, unless your surname is Targaryen. Either Randa is lying about her resentment (although Sansa seems to think it is real) or she doesn't know who "Alayne" really is. Both can't be true.

<snip>

In general: Even if news still travel, the focus on the news is on big things going on more than on LF having acquired an uncommonly pretty bastard daughter. With so many things going on and so much strife, fighting and winter around the corner, it seems to me people's focus will be elsewhere than LF's bastard daughter. Besides, we do know it is considered impolite to comment or inquire after a man's "natural daughter", as LF himself points out earlier. (Making Alayne's commentary to Harry the more interesting.)

Good points, Lyanna. I'm now reconsidering my original thoughts with regard to Myranda. But what about the Mad Mouse? His comments to Sansa indicate he knows exactly who she is, and if he does, he was tipped off by someone else. Again, I do think Lyn Corbray and Shadrich are the two who are going to cause Sansa the most trouble in the future.

[Colonel Green]

His comments to Sansa indicate he knows exactly who she is, and if he does, he was tipped off by someone else.

Given that we met Shadrich while he was taking a hired job for money, it's possible that he just fortuitously took a job with Littlefinger and then realized that Alayne is Sansa. Some might call that contrived, but it's not like coincidence hasn't happened before in this story, or in real life.

What I do wonder about this angle is, how exactly does Shadrich recognize Sansa? He's never seen her, as far as we know, and it's not like there are photographs of her for him to look at (or even portraits, seemingly -- portraiture seems strangely underdeveloped in Westeros).

Bronze Yohn Royce: If he indeed recognised Sansa and unerstood who she was, logically he should have said something at the time. If he only figured it out a bit later, logically he should have tried to contct her, yet he does nothing. If he knew the last Stark was masquerading as LF's daughter, Bronze Yohn would be all over that one. Instead we have a whole lot of nothing, and that seems an unlikely reaction from him.

Your thoughts about Myranda are interesting, but on this score, it's possible he's uncertain what LF's game is and is letting things play out to get a better handle on what's going on.

[Lyanna Stark]

Given that we met Shadrich while he was taking a hired job for money, it's possible that he just fortuitously took a job with Littlefinger and then realized that Alayne is Sansa. Some might call that contrived, but it's not like coincidence hasn't happened before in this story, or in real life.

What I do wonder about this angle is, how exactly does Shadrich recognize Sansa? He's never seen her, as far as we know, and it's not like there are photographs of her for him to look at (or even portraits, seemingly -- portraiture seems strangely underdeveloped in Westeros).

Depends on how much Varys let on when he hired Shadrich. Given that Varys is no source of either information or income anymore, might be Ser Shadrich is also looking for an alternative employer if he has heard of Lord Varys' disappearance, making Shadrich another very loose cannon. In any case the position of Shadrich so close to Lyn Corbray, another loose cannon, is certainly interesting.

DogLover, I agree with your thoughts on that Corbray and Shadrich are two people to look out for in Sansa's future chapters. Both that they are loose cannons and that Shadrich might suspect who Sansa is, plus that Corbray has a thorn in his side WRT Littlefinger and LF's plans is a potentially explosive mix.

Of course, if we add "Shadrich looking for a new someone to pay for Sansa Stark" with "Shadrich has recognised Sansa Stark" and "Lyn Corbray is looking for a way to fuck up Littlefinger's plans" then a potential outcome might be that those two try and abduct her, presenting her to whomever is looking for her in Kings Landing, be it Tyrells or Lannisters. Or, if they're really awful, they may consider taking her to the Crossing and give Lord Frey the last remaining Stark (as known by them). (The last paragraph is obviously conjecture, but the fact remains that Corbray is a completely loose cannon and Shadrich needs some help if he wants to get his prize from the Vale as he doesn't have the oomph to snatch her out of LF's clutches.)

Your thoughts about Myranda are interesting, but on this score, it's possible he's uncertain what LF's game is and is letting things play out to get a better handle on what's going on.

If we are making guesses as to what kind of man Bronze Yohn Royce is, we can guess that he is quite old-skool. He was Ned's friend, he sent his son to the wall, and he strikes the reader as honourable and not a "game player" in Sansa's AFFC chapters. Hence it would seem odd that he holds off acting based on what "game" he thinks LF is playing. Someone of the Ned's type of Lord would not hold off to see what game LF was playing, he would do the right thing, or at least the honourable thing, regardless of LF's games. Should Bronze Yohn Royce have recognised Sansa, I do not believe he would have left it at that and just waited, he would have made it known that he knew that Ned's supposedly only trueborn child left was alive. To Royce, Jon Snow is the only child left alive to the Starks, and he is a bastard and at the Nights Watch, the rest are presumed dead. Given this information, would he really wait out LF and see what LF intends to do with the last of the Starks?

I am thinking this is unlikely. Royce would not left LF sit unchallenged in possession of the last Stark known to be alive.

AFFC quotes about Bronze Yohn Royce:

Alayne I:

The Freys had broken all the laws of hospitality when they'd murdered her lady mother and her brother at the Twins, but she could not believe that a lord as noble as Yohn Royce would ever stoop to do the same.

Interestingly we know of someone who did draw steel: Corbray.

On dressed up in brown and gold with brown hair, Alayne thinks that:

Lord Royce will never know me, she thought. Why, I hardly know myself.

We also have Bronze Yohn Royce referencing the Frey's in the Lord Declarants' meeting with LF and he also put himself between Lyn Corbray and LF when Corbray drew his sword. While Lord Royce is also clearly suspicious about LF's power grab, he also concedes that he will give LF his year as Lord Protector and that's that. If anything, Bronze Yohn Royce seems honourable, he sticks to the rules and he did not enjoy any " game playing" LF was engaging in.

On Lyn Corbray and his status as volatile and a loose cannon that is hugely dangerous:

Lady Waynwood tells Corbray to mind his manners and not talk about hos LF's daughter will soon be deflowered in front of her, and he replies with this:

"My tongue is my concern," Corbray replied. "Your ladyship should take care to mind her own. I have never taken kindly to chastisement, as any number of dead men could tell you."

And this is to Lady Waynwood, who is an old lady, and he has just insulted a 14 year old girl.

With regards to Sansa/Alayne being captivated by Harry's beauty, it is interesting to note what she thinks of Lyn (and we definitely know she doesn't fancy him).

Ser Lyn is very handsome, for an older man, she thought, but I do not like the way he smiles.

Alayne/Sansa in AFFC already seems able to divorce physical beauty from personality traits. It seems unlikely Harry would sway her with handsome looks alone.

[Colonel Green]

Depends on how much Varys let on when he hired Shadrich.

I don't think Varys hired him. He's just a bounty hunter who heard about the reward Varys put out.

Given current events in King's Landing, though, if I were Shadrich I'd be inclined to sit on this information for now and see how things pan out there. The city isn't a particularly stable or safe place to visit at the moment.

[Lummel]

Yeah I read it as Ser Lyn being a pedophile, but then again LF could've lied just to make Lyn look more repulsive to Sansa (ironically LF himself is perving over a 13 year old girl...)

Yes, I suspect the comment was along the lines of wanting to make him look worse in Sansa's eyes, trying to isolate her and leave her with only one person to trust: Lord Baelish. I've generally felt that the glance and smile that Lyn Corbray gave Brune in AFFC suggested a more than platonic interest

but maybe I'm too influenced by all the slash porn in the UK politics thread :dunno:

.

[Mithras]

Concerning the timing of the births, keep in mind that it's widely speculated that Old Nan is the pretty young woman seen making out with Dunk, which would means she would have to be in Winterfell for when Dunk and Egg arrive in "She-Wolves of Winterfell", set circa 212 AC.

I don't agree with that at all. The girl Dunk kissed was somebody else because there is absolutely no evidence to take that woman as Old Nan. Besides, Old Nan's Brandon lived much later than that vision. If anything, I think Old Nan is the pregnant woman in Bran's visions asking for a son to avenge her.

How is Randa corrupt exactly? Ambitious, sure, but corrupt?

“Soon or late you must meet Myranda Royce,” Petyr had warned her. “When you do, be careful. She likes to play the merry fool, but underneath she’s shrewder than her father. Guard your tongue around her.”

If LF speaks like this about a person, that one should definitely be the mastermind. Wherever Nestor goes, Randa should be the actual person to be on the wheel. And these two became cronies of LF.

[Colonel Green]

If LF speaks like this about a person, that one should definitely be the mastermind. Wherever Nestor goes, Randa should be the actual person to be on the wheel. And these two became cronies of LF.

But Littlefinger isn't talking about Myranda like someone who is his crony -- rather, someone he considers a wildcard. He deals only with Nestor.

[Mithras]

But Littlefinger isn't talking about Myranda like someone who is his crony -- rather, someone he considers a wildcard. He deals only with Nestor.

If Myranda is in LF's payroll to watch over Sansa, like it is his custom, then surely he will not say that she is his crony.