New TWOW chapter - timeline implications [spoilers]

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The Doom of Valyria happened centuries after Braavos negotiated with Valyria. Nevermind the pure, utter idiocy it would be for assassins to pose as official diplomats of their own home when there are several million other disguises are available.

[Maia]

They want Stannis to win because that's the only outcome that repays all of the Iron Throne's debts, including the new loans Stannis took.

Do they? It is a really huge longshot that he'd survive long enough to be able to profit from the loan and he has no feasible heir. Shireen is not only a young and not particularly charismatic girl, her PR value would be really hurt by her greyscale. Should anything happen to Stannis, his cause would immdeiately collapse. It would also take him years more of expensive and destructive warfare to win, and religious strife is likely to make it even worse. There is no way that he'd be able to repay the IB at the end of all this, no matter how earnestly he tries. Taxing Westeros on the level he'd need to in the middle of what looks to become an exceptionally long and savage Winter is almost guaranteed to get him assassinated ASAP. Lannisters, OTOH, can pay, if pressured enough. IMHO, that's what Stannis is to IB - the means to get them to knuckle down and toe the line.

Hm. I'd say that once the Iron Bank learns of the contract Stannis has signed they'll deploy Faceless Men to ensure that their pretender wins the war - i.e. send assassins to murder Tommen, Myrcella, Aegon, Euron, Daenerys, and other major obstacles to Stannis' ascension.

No evidence in the text so far that IB has that power. In fact, shouldn't Braavos be much more pre-eminent among the Free Cities than it is, if it was the case? Ensuring that slavery became abolished for real should have been a snap if they could just murder all pre-eminent proponents of it with ease, etc. Committing to one underdog claimant makes no sense either. They want to get payed and to have their reputation reinforced. Getting the Lannisters to publicly knuckle down has far more chance of attaining both of these objectives. For that matter, why bother with Stannis at all if you can freely use FM? Just kill Cersei and be done with it. It is obvious that any other regent would have payed ASAP.

Exactly, and not only that, the only reason for the IB to deal with Stanis (a clear underdog) is because Cersei refused to pay, now with Kevan in charge (as far as they know) and willing to pay, dealing with the Lanisters would likely present a lesser risk and a smaller investment (as opposed to lending great sums to Stannis). Or they could just play both sides for the time being.

Very true. They are businessmen, they have to see that getting payed in the middle of long and severe winter would be difficult in the best case, and that prolonging a destructive war without a very good reason would make it even less likely, no matter how earnest Stannis's intentions.

TWoIaF made it very, very likely (I'd even say effectively confirmed) that the Faceless Men and the Iron Bank are heavily interconnected. Yandel explicitly mentions rumors that the Iron Bank uses assassins to deal with unwilling debtors.

Very likely, particularly given the fate of the Rogares, but there is no indication that they can directly employ FM. They could have found enemies/victims of the Rogares willing to pay the price FM demand and directed them to the FM, for instance.

The Doom of Valyria is another big hint. The Iron Bank sent representatives to Valyria to treat with the Lords Freeholder over the stolen ships etc. - which means that Faceless Men infiltrated Valyria most likely disguised as Iron Bank officials. Destroying Valyria would have been a major goal for all the Braavosi power players not just the Faceless Men - in fact, I think if they did this for money nobody could have been able to pay them. Which means there were in the game not for money but because they wanted to cause the Doom.

But it doesn't in any way suggest that the Iron Bank controls the FM or vice-versa. Everybody in Braavos would have been interested in removing/weakening Valyria. I mean, an official agreement was all well and good, but if Valyria was like ancient Rome, then it's history would have suggested that they'd use any pretext to annex Braavos in the future. It may have been the case of all powers of Braavos working in concert for once. Or the FM may have infiltrated the embassy that would have included servants, sailors, etc., that could have all been replaced or impersonated, on their own initiative, as they would have been fully capable of doing. We just don't know.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

I guess you're coming from there not being an intricate connection between the IB and the FM, whereas I think there is.

The IB wouldn't use the FM too much because VERY quickly it becomes apparent someone is orchestrating these deaths, and then it's very easy to work out to whose benefit that is. This risks reprisals, much more than a carefully selective use of the FM. They're not superheroes after all.

But there's reason to use all available weapons in this case.

The Iron Throne may well be the largest debtor in the known world, and is certainly a highly desirable client for any bank, in normal circumstances. Westerosi kings like to live beyond their means and so they always borrow, but also have a very large realm with significant natural wealth from which to draw revenue to service their debts.

This breaks down when someone like Cersei steps in. It's vital that the relationship between the Iron Throne as client and the IB be restored, which is impossible with her in power. Further, it became widely known that Cersei stopped paying the IB, which is a big reputations like hit, given the importance of the Iron Throne as a banking client. It's imperative that she suffers the consequence.

Not only her, but the Lannisters. I wonder if there is some pre-existing resentment by the IB towards Tywin Lannister there? After all, he made House Lannister a major creditor to the Iron Throne, thus stealing business from the banks, including the IB. Ouch.

No, the Lannisters need to go - Cersei is the trigger, but much better to just kick the whole lot of them out.

So Stannis is a good candidate. Tycho's bargaining with him was just for show. Stannis won't win because of the sellswords he'll buy with the IB's gold, he'll win because the IB will make it happen. The gold that he's being lent does serve a purpose: it makes him beholden to the IB, thus whipping the Iron Throne back in line.

[Blade of Sunlight]

I guess you're coming from there not being an intricate connection between the IB and the FM, whereas I think there is.

The IB wouldn't use the FM too much because VERY quickly it becomes apparent someone is orchestrating these deaths, and then it's very easy to work out to whose benefit that is. This risks reprisals, much more than a carefully selective use of the FM. They're not superheroes after all.

But there's reason to use all available weapons in this case.

The Iron Throne may well be the largest debtor in the known world, and is certainly a highly desirable client for any bank, in normal circumstances. Westerosi kings like to live beyond their means and so they always borrow, but also have a very large realm with significant natural wealth from which to draw revenue to service their debts.

This breaks down when someone like Cersei steps in. It's vital that the relationship between the Iron Throne as client and the IB be restored, which is impossible with her in power. Further, it became widely known that Cersei stopped paying the IB, which is a big reputations like hit, given the importance of the Iron Throne as a banking client. It's imperative that she suffers the consequence.

Not only her, but the Lannisters. I wonder if there is some pre-existing resentment by the IB towards Tywin Lannister there? After all, he made House Lannister a major creditor to the Iron Throne, thus stealing business from the banks, including the IB. Ouch.

No, the Lannisters need to go - Cersei is the trigger, but much better to just kick the whole lot of them out.

So Stannis is a good candidate. Tycho's bargaining with him was just for show. Stannis won't win because of the sellswords he'll buy with the IB's gold, he'll win because the IB will make it happen. The gold that he's being lent does serve a purpose: it makes him beholden to the IB, thus whipping the Iron Throne back in line.

Yes, but backing Stannis is not a very good long term investment, even if they killed all Lanisters, Dany and Aegon I doubt Stanis would be King, mostly because he would't be supported by anyone, for one he worships what most people in Westeros (noble and smallfolk alike) believe to be a queer foreign god, lets not forget that the Faith Militant were just reformed and that the Militant uprising was one of the major problems in the history of the Seven Kingdoms, and back then the King wasn't burning septs and consorting with a red witch.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, but backing Stannis is not a very good long term investment, even if they killed all Lanisters, Dany and Aegon I doubt Stanis would be King, mostly because he would't be supported by anyone, for one he worships what most people in Westeros (noble and smallfolk alike) believe to be a queer foreign god, lets not forget that the Faith Militant were just reformed and that the Militant uprising was one of the major problems in the history of the Seven Kingdoms, and back then the King wasn't burning septs and consorting with a red witch.

Something the Braavosi don't know yet.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Yes, but backing Stannis is not a very good long term investment, even if they killed all Lanisters, Dany and Aegon I doubt Stanis would be King, mostly because he would't be supported by anyone, for one he worships what most people in Westeros (noble and smallfolk alike) believe to be a queer foreign god, lets not forget that the Faith Militant were just reformed and that the Militant uprising was one of the major problems in the history of the Seven Kingdoms, and back then the King wasn't burning septs and consorting with a red witch.

So, the less likely he is to hold on to power - and it seems he's unlikely to, indeed - the more beholden he'll be to the Iron Bank if it can somehow secure his position.

[Blade of Sunlight]

Something the Braavosi don't know yet.

Still, assuming all Lords of the seven Kingdoms will just change faith is a bit of a stretch, even the Targaryens converted.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

And more importantly, Stannis' weak position means that if he causes ANY trouble for the Iron Bank, he's gone within a week of them withdrawing support. Another safeguard a Tyrell or Lannister alliance doesn't offerx

[Blade of Sunlight]

And more importantly, Stannis' weak position means that if he causes ANY trouble for the Iron Bank, he's gone within a week of them withdrawing support. Another safeguard a Tyrell or Lannister alliance doesn't offerx

True, they might be working both sides (they should), what I'm saying is that Stanis is unlikely to be the horse they bet the most to win.

[Chinoiserie]

I wonder if there is some pre-existing resentment by the IB towards Tywin Lannister there? After all, he made House Lannister a major creditor to the Iron Throne, thus stealing business from the banks, including the IB. Ouch.

Considering that Iron Throne was still borrowing form the IB and that Tywin personally paid an Iron Throne loan when Aerys was thinking going to war against Braavos I would imagine that they had no problem with him (the opposite is likely). The Lannisters in general should be very desirable clients with their wealth and unofficial motto of paying their depts. It was only Cersei that was an issue. Having her killed would not have caused much suspicion towards Braavos with the amount of enemies she has. So if IB is so close with the Faceless Men removing her would be by far the easiest option.

[Lord Varys]

My take of the Faceless Men:

We know

- they are older than Braavos itself, and they have been a power in Braavos since its founding.

- they are demanding huge prices for their services as assassins yet the huge wealth they acquired is nowhere to be seen in their temple.

- they exert power and influence on every level of Braavosi society, and they are revered/feared by every Braavosi we have ever met.

- the Iron Bank is a bank unlike every other in the sense that it has a unique way to deal with unwilling debtors (we know this from both Yandel and Jon Snow).

What if the Faceless Men aren't a cult providing clients with assassins but rather a cartel of business men posing as a cult who provides assassins to its clients? We know there are key holders and all, but what if the major shareholders of the Iron Bank - the ones who ensure the 'ironness' is the Iron Bank - essentially are the leaders of the House of Black and White?

The Faceless Men murder only for huge wages but they certainly should be able to make exceptions if their own sphere of interest is concerned - i.e., for instance if anyone is messing with their bank.

Just murdering people doesn't bring in any money. Killing Cersei or Tommen would not necessarily get the Iron Bank back its gold. Reaching an agreement with another pretender, extending loans to him, and ensuring that he succeeds could get you back your money or at least cut short the additional expenses you have. The shorter Stannis' campaign the smaller the additional loans you'll have to grant him to win the Iron Throne.

I imagine a similar MO when they deal with lesser unwilling debtors. Find some guy who'll usurp the guy who owes you money (or take over his enterprise) and then take the guy out. The man you funded/reached an understanding with will be both grateful and afraid of you and pay you everything you demand of him.

I also do not get the impression that the Faceless Men want to better life or society. They are pretty stoic about everything as everyone has to die anyway. This should be enough to explain why they are not actively fighting against slavery. The average Braavosi abhors slavery, not necessarily the average Faceless Men, too. And Braavos is essentially the most powerful Free City there is. They are downplaying their power but if they wanted they could, most likely, conquer all the other Free Cities and rip Westeros apart. They safe from any foreign threat, they rule the waves, and they control vast amounts of money and wealth. But they don't seem to be interested in military conquest at all.

Stannis should eventually have the funds to pay back the Iron Bank. I don't think he intends to let the Lannisters of Casterly Rock survive the war. If he wins the Iron Throne he would either completely attaint the houses and all its members or demand pretty much all their gold in exchange for their survival. And if he gets that he should be able to pay all the Crown's debts as well as rebuilding his new kingdom. He should be intending to deal with the Tyrells in a similar fashion, I expect.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Still, assuming all Lords of the seven Kingdoms will just change faith is a bit of a stretch, even the Targaryens converted.

Something Stannis never demanded. Never.

[Blade of Sunlight]

Something Stannis never demanded. Never.

No, but he did burn the septs, and asked Jon to burn the Godswood, he also killed most who would't convert in Dragonstone, and I'm not even saying he will force the other lords to convert, but the mere fact he does't follow their faith (and actually acted against it) is likely enough to create more dissent than two siblings marrying (which was what led to the first rebellion). Having a leader of a different faith, especially a faith as intolerant as the Red god's, is likely to provoke conflict.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Lord Varys - the point about how just killing Cersei and Tommen doesn't assure them anything is a great one. They need someone on the Iron Throne who is sure to be motivated to repay and will have access to such huge sums.

The only way to access that much wealth at this stage is the attainment of the Lannisters and the Tyrells (and other traitors of course) - winter has come for however long, no harvests to sell, tax receipt will plummet to nothing, treasury empty, food stores low, etc. The only scenario in which all these debts get repaid is if the guy who wins the Iron Throne both (1) owes the win to the Iron Bank AND (2) has just won a heap of plunder, most likely in the process of winning the Iron Rhrone.

Stannis has no plunder to give up, and neither do any of his supporters. His loss would mean no plunder for the winners. The Lannisters and the Tyrells have all their wealth to give up to him (and he has so few supporters to reward!). That is, to the Iron Bank.

Stannis is the preferred candidate yet again.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No, but he did burn the septs, and asked Jon to burn the Godswood, he also killed most who would't convert in Dragonstone, and I'm not even saying he will force the other lords to convert, but the mere fact he does't follow their faith (and actually acted against it) is likely enough to create more dissent than two siblings marrying (which was what led to the first rebellion). Having a leader of a different faith, especially a faith as intolerant as the Red god's, is likely to provoke conflict.

Nope.

He burned one sept. His own.

He did not ask Jon to burn the Godswood. That was Melisandre.

He did not kill anybody refusing to convert in Dragonstone, or Davos among others would look a lot crispier. He killed some traitors who have assaulted his men with swords when they came to redecorate his own home.

[Blade of Sunlight]

Nope.

He burned one sept. His own.

He did not ask Jon to burn the Godswood. That was Melisandre.

He did not kill anybody refusing to convert in Dragonstone, or Davos among others would look a lot crispier. He killed some traitors who have assaulted his men with swords when they came to redecorate his own home.

True, he only burnt his sept (as of yet) but he never had many others to burn,and he burnt Storm's End goodswood, which is not the same thing but pretty close.

He didn't say the words himself but he was present when Mel said so, and in the same chapter he will only allow wildlings who take the red god to settle the gift.

He didn't kill everyone that disregarded his god, but most who didn't ended up dead or arrested.

[Colonel Green]

True, he only burnt his sept (as of yet) but he never had many others to burn,and he burnt Storm's End goodswood, which is not the same thing but pretty close.

He didn't say the words himself but he was present when Mel said so, and in the same chapter he will only allow wildlings who take the red god to settle the gift.

He didn't kill everyone that disregarded his god, but most who didn't ended up dead or arrested.

The Storm's End godswood was also his.

That's not true. Stannis leaves Rolland Storm, for instance, in charge of Dragonstone when he leaves, and he's extremely faithful to the Seven. The ones who were killed or arrested were those whose religious convictions led them to oppose Stannis' destruction of the sept.

[Lord Damian]

Back to the original timeline, The Battle of Winterfell is about to be resolved and the potential and most likely unveiling that Rickon Stark and his pet direwolf are alive will be revealed to Westeros which changes in so many ways Sansa/Allayne's life. I am very curious if this occurs, when and how will it hit the Vale as I am sure it would like wildfire. Sansa would be the heir to nothing.

[Colonel Green]

Back to the original timeline, The Battle of Winterfell is about to be resolved and the potential and most likely unveiling that Rickon Stark and his pet direwolf are alive will be revealed to Westeros which changes in so many ways Sansa/Allayne's life. I am very curious if this occurs, when and how will it hit the Vale as I am sure it would like wildfire. Sansa would be the heir to nothing.

Given that Davos is presumably going to have some actual story on Skagos, I wouldn't be betting on Rickon's survival becoming widely known anytime soon.

Also, in the most technical sense, Sansa would remain the heir to Winterfell, as she would be her brother's heir (absent Robb's will turning up). ;)

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

I guess the Scagos story could be told in a few flashbacks by Davos, so we could kick off with Rickon already there.

As for Rickon himself - he will be named Lord of Winterfell by Stannis, but this doesn't undermine Sansa's position just yet. By siding with Stannis, Rickon will be attainted by the power in King's Landing, leaving Sansa as the Lady of Winterfell still. Stannis first needs to win the IT, or his appointments are irrelevant.

There is of course the question of what Sansa herself will do. She's been longing for family, and has thought about Winterfell as home, rather than as a title - will she really hate it that she's no longer as desirable a match?

I guess GRRM won't let her off the hook that easily. She will realise she quite likes being in the thick of things, just as she finds out one of her brothers is alive - and makes her a lot less important. What will she dooooo?