R+L=J v.139

[BearQueen87]

Rhaegar could not be sure that he would have following in any case, whether Aerys was there or not. So, by this logic, this whole thing (dethroning Aerys) was a terrible idea, a childish dream.

But was he planning on calling a GC at HH or just talking to the Lords at HH and beginning to get them on his side? The second Aerys shows up, if R wants to follow through, then it becomes a GC pretty much without questions and he'll lose.

[Alia of the knife]

I think i already sent a private mesasge to you Alia. Has it arrived ?

No, I didn't get it. :dunno:

[Alia of the knife]

On the topic of HH, I do think its a possibility that Illyrio is the silent money behind the tourney, and though Varys wasn't mentioned as being there, it was said that he was whispering in Aerys ear, driving a further wedge between himself and his wife and son. It also seems that Varys would not be far from Aerys in such a situation.

As far as the "what" that might have derailed Rhaegar beyond Aerys presence is, I think it is more the "who." I think his meeting Lyanna is what threw him off track of everything he had been planning, hence his statement to Jaime about "roads not taken," (though he did seem prepared to win the battle).

(I am currently reading a series of books on the aftermath of the civil war between Steven and Matilda, and Duke Henry, in the aftermath of his victory, is himself in some case going round to the Houses who fought for Steven, and basically telling them that the price for keeping their lands and titles is for them to marry their children to the Houses that supported him, thus reunifying the great Houses).

Rickard is not present at the Tourney, but sends his heir who is NOT happy with a married Rhaegar crowing Lyanna, nor was Ned, or anyone else it seems, so if he was trying to ingratiate himself with the Starks, it didn't work and it may have called into question his own behavior in the eyes of the other gathered Houses which makes me think that his behavior was more impulsive and "driven" such as Jorahs story was, hence Lyanna as the outlier.

I speculate that it seems more likely now that those who did not attend may have been the families who heard through the "raven vine" about what might go down, and didn't want to be involved, which makes Rickards death at the hands of Aerys most ironic if Rickard was still his loyal vassal.

And despite Brandons storming into KL, I don't think we have anything else to go on that suggests that Brandon otherwise was not a competent leader, and if Rickard did share with him his fears of plotting, then the brothers anger over the crowning of Lyanna makes even more sense, since it puts the Starks in a bad place with Aerys.

If that is also the case, then Rhaegars crowing Lyanna seems to contradict the notion, (and I still believe it), that Rhaegar lied to his father to protect Lyanna, which is why I think simply it was the same emotional impulses that drove him to crown her that drove Jorah when he won his tourney, conflicts of the heart and all.

(I can't remember, but were the Tyrells there)?

[Lord Varys]

Mithras,

actually, dethroning Aerys was only one of the options Yandel mentions. The other is a regency. Rhaegar's motivation was most likely sound reasoning. 'My father is sick, he cannot continue to rule. Else something bad is going to happen - he might harm himself and others.' The more reasonable lords would have agreed with his arguments but considering the world George describes we should not assume that a majority would have necessarily considered a mad king (or rather: this mad king) to be a bad thing.

It would have been a dangerous game. Rhaegar's only chance to succeed would have been to get a nearly all the lords present on his side. If there was only a small majority in his favor then the lords backing Aerys in this matter would have not accepted the ruling of the council and joined their king to wage a war on Rhaegar and his traitorous supporters (without the king being present or authorizing the Great Council it was treason from the start, anyway). And if Rhaegar had lost he would have been killed at Harrenhal or been delivered to his father in chains.

General Harrenhal stuff:

Actually, we should essentially shut up with assumption who was or wasn't there unless he/she is mentioned of being absent. Tywin wasn't there, that we know. But Jojen/Meera didn't give us a thorough list on who was there, nor did Yandel or the other people remembering the tourney. For instance, we don't know whether the Tullys were there but considering that it was a tourney in the Riverlands it is very likely that they were all there but just not mentioned as such.

While we could make a case that Lord Rickard wasn't there - due to the whole a Stark has to be in Winterfell thing - we don't yet know whether an older Stark cousin was still alive at that point (say, Lyarra Stark's father, the Wandering Wolf) who Rickard named castellan during the time of the tourney.

With court officials things are different. Varys could have remained with Lord Merryweather - the Hand - at KL to rule the Realm while Aerys was attended by other cronies from his Small Council to Harrenhal (Pycelle, Lucerys Velaryon, Qarlton Chelsted). Since the queen and Prince Viserys stayed at home we have hardly reason to assume that the whole court traveled to Harrenhal.

Thus: Just because somebody has not yet been mentioned doesn't mean he wasn't there, and vice versa.

[markg171]

Yes I agree with this. The second Aerys shows up, you can't really call a Great Council or persuade the Lords to take part in one...not with the King right there. The men of the realm might be shocked at how far their King has fallen, mentally, but after Aerys's display of seeking out the KotLT because "he is my enemy" would you really want to declare a GC right then and there knowing that, if your side lost, you'd probably be fed to the flames.

In order to call a GC, you'd have to trust in all the other lords present to vote your way (appointing Rhaegar as king) and...trusting other lords of Westeros is not exactly something these people do on a daily basis.

I'd also add that Aerys just admitted the heir of a Lord Paramount to his Kingsguard, and immediately dismissed him to King's Landing before everybody... and the heir obeyed. Aerys had physically fallen, but his power was still every bit real at the Harrenhal.

Generally speaking I doubt that show spoilers could actually spoil book stuff in its fullest detail as show character C will to action A out of motivation M in the show and a completely different character C with the same name will do a completely different action A out of motivation M in the books. I don't think we can be sure that even stuff we expect to happen in the books will happen the way they happened in the show in the books when the show completely ventures into TWoW territory.

This could even extend to the Jon Snow thing. Perhaps the show runners want Jon to be a bastard? Or they want him on the Iron Throne? Or they want to kill him?

The show has changed many main characters of this series in so many ways and so thoroughly that telling the story George's way makes at times no longer even sense (that was particularly striking last season, if my memory serves, as a lot of book stuff happening therein felt wrong from the POV of the characters in the show).

In short: I don't expect any major spoilers in the show in the near future.

I'm not sure if anybody in this thread saw, but the artist who is designing the cover for the World of Ice and Fire Spanish Edition confirmed that the show House of the Undying vision isn't made up. He said that the Iron Throne will end up being destroyed in a battle of ice and fire, hence why Dany sees the Iron Throne being covered in snow and the Red Keep having been destroyed. It wasn't a scene that the show makers made up, nor was it to show that Jon Snow Snow will sit the throne instead of Dany. Just that the Throne will be destroyed in the final battle.

So the show does spoil some things, even if we might not notice it at the time.

[Alia of the knife]

On to "Wolf Hall...."

[Lord Varys]

Hm. Since the Iron Throne in the show vision wasn't destroyed I'm not sure what to make of that. Not sure either why I should believe that the artist for the Spanish TWoIaF version should know how the series is supposed to end. The books have yet to be written, and as long as they aren't they can change. George may yet change a lot of stuff the show runners right now believe he'll do. That's the nature of a work in progress.

[Mithras]

Mithras,

actually, dethroning Aerys was only one of the options Yandel mentions. The other is a regency. Rhaegar's motivation was most likely sound reasoning. 'My father is sick, he cannot continue to rule. Else something bad is going to happen - he might harm himself and others.' The more reasonable lords would have agreed with his arguments but considering the world George describes we should not assume that a majority would have necessarily considered a mad king (or rather: this mad king) to be a bad thing.

It would have been a dangerous game. Rhaegar's only chance to succeed would have been to get a nearly all the lords present on his side. If there was only a small majority in his favor then the lords backing Aerys in this matter would have not accepted the ruling of the council and joined their king to wage a war on Rhaegar and his traitorous supporters (without the king being present or authorizing the Great Council it was treason from the start, anyway). And if Rhaegar had lost he would have been killed at Harrenhal or been delivered to his father in chains.

So, you agree with me. Rhaegar would speak of treason in any case, which means the presence of Aerys was not much of an issue.

The Rhaegar who spoke to Jaime sounded like a man who wanted to be somewhere else doing something else. The way he talked about the "changes" he meant to make looks like he gave a break to the Game at the tourney but then he was back in black, though not much willingly.

[Lord Varys]

Mithras,

I don't agree with you there. Rhaegar would have committed treason in any case, but only with Aerys absent he could have had a chance of succeeding as the king would not have been there, and would have not had a quick way to intervene - by, say, having Rhaegar arrested and publicly burned alive to show off that he was in charge.

What Rhaegar indicates to Jaime in ASoS is Harrenhal - his intention to move against Aerys there. I imagine Rhaegar intended to talk with the great lords present at Harrenhal first informally about Aerys' state of mind, and then announce the Great Council when some/many of the great lords had already pledged themselves to his cause privately. That would not have guarantee that they would not have backed down/betrayed him later on, but if, say, Tywin, Jon Arryn, Hoster, Robert, Mace, and the Dornish representatives had spoken against Aerys at Rhaegar's side their bannermen most likely would not decided to object openly - how they would have voted in secret is another matter, as is the question if all/many of the great lords would have joined Rhaegar in the first place.

[Gala]

I have watched the 4 episodes that have been leaked. All i will say is this : R+L=J fan

Leaked? I thought it was sort of exclusively sold somewhere?! So naive of me.

[FrozenFire3]

I don't believe the show will diverge substantially from what has been since its incipit the thematic 'dealmaker' between D&D and GRRM (the infamous test question about Jon's parentage). In spite of detours, cut and shortcuts there is a core path they are following: R+L=J is one of its destinations.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I don't believe the show will diverge substantially from what has been since its incipit the thematic 'dealmaker' between D&D and GRRM (the infamous test question about Jon's parentage). In spite of detours, cut and shortcuts there is a core path they are following: R+L=J is one of its destinations.

Yes, the paths may diverge -- and likely will diverge quite a bit in the next seasons when the scrips will be written without the benefit of any books as direct guidance. But GRRM told D&D the outcome for all of the main characters. D&D have said that the ending is "satisfying" and that they are telling the same story, just in a different way. So while it may not always be clear what issues are "spoilers" and what are "deviations" with regards to the books, at some point -- maybe not until the final season -- it will be clear that the show is spoiling the outcome of the books.

[addicted to snow]

I don't believe the show will diverge substantially from what has been since its incipit the thematic 'dealmaker' between D&D and GRRM (the infamous test question about Jon's parentage). In spite of detours, cut and shortcuts there is a core path they are following: R+L=J is one of its destinations.

I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that the Books & HBO share the same ending...

[RumHam]

I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that the Books & HBO share the same ending...

Yeah, but who Jon's parents are won't change. The producers have told the story of how they got the job by answering that question many times.

[MoIaF]

I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that the Books & HBO share the same ending...

The road to the ending will diverge, as it already has, from he books. But the ending will be the same. We have been told this multiple times by the author and the show creators.

From D&D:

Showrunner David Benioff confirmed in a talk at Oxford Union that book and show storylines will "eventually, basically, meet up at pretty much the same place where George is going; there might be a few deviations along the route, but we're heading towards the same destination.

"I kind of wish that there were some things we didn't have to spoil, but we're kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. The show must go on ... and that's what we're going to do."

They met with GRRM and have the complete layout of the story:

Last year we went out to Santa Fe for a week to sit down with [Martin] and just talk through where things are going, continued Benioff. Because we don't know if we are going to catch up, and where exactly that would be if you know the ending, then you can lay the groundwork for it. And so we want to know how everything ends. We want to be able to set things up. So we sat just down with him and literally went through every character and said, "So what's the destination for Daenarys? And Arya?"

They are working toward the ending George gave them:

So last September at a seaside park grove in Croatia, inside a dim tent full of camera monitors, we asked the duo: You know Georges ending for the saga. A lot of fans have wondered whether its going to pay off in a satisfying way. Non-specifically, do you feel the sagas ending is creatively satisfying? Is it an ending youre excited to work towards?

Their replies were immediate and emphatic.

Benioff: Absolutely yes.

Weiss: 100 percent.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Thank you @MoIaF, that was such a satisfying answer!

[MoIaF]

Thank you @MoIaF, that was such a satisfying answer!

You're welcome! I already had it from another thread. I know people don't want to think about the show giving us the ending prior to the books but it will happen at least for the major storyline and characters.

Of course that doesn't mean that we'll know everything. There are many minor characters who were never cast or whose stories were condensed or changed by the show who we will have to wait for the books to know what actually happens to them. And of course even for the major characters their stories have been streamlined for the show so their books journey to the end will also differ somewhat from the show.

But the ending will be the ending.

[sj4iy]

<snip>

Hmm...nope, not convincing. They are obviously going to end it with Luke being the new Darth Vader.

[MoIaF]

Hmm...nope, not convincing. They are obviously going to end it with Luke being the new Darth Vader.

OMG! My notice system is working again. It's been a month or more since I've been able to get notices that people are quoting me. So annoying.

Anyhow!

Do you mean to tell me that both GRRM and D&D are lying and the book ending and show ending will be completely different? Because if that's true I want my money back, all of it! Books and show, I don't like liars or hacks.

[Lord Varys]

Well, they are not telling the same story since, well, season 2 or 3, and they should better not try to end it the same way since they may feel wrong or weird. But even with everything they got from George we should not expect them ending it his way as he has not yet written the books - which means he could change stuff on the way. Say, for example, with this huge twist he is about to include. That seems to be a new thing.