R+L=J v.139

[Avalatis]

As I've said before,in real history young princes, especially young crown princes often took on "projects" they could/would be known for that brought them their own fame and heroism and if this prophesy was something that was his "thing," then it seems like the NW might be a place to focus his attentions.

It's possible that he didn't know the form in which the end of the world would come. He could have thought it would be another Doom.

[Nami]

It could be that he had premonition dreams

Maybe that's why he looked so haunted and sad. Maybe he knew of his end, or just that something tragic was going to happen.

[Avalatis]

That Rhaegar believed Rhaenys was a head of the dragon. That's just an assumption, and possibly wrong due to the fact that she was female. If Rhaegar did believe that the promised prince had to be male it is unlikely that he would have thought that the other dragon heads can be female. I think it is not unlikely that Rhaegar thought by the time of Aegon's birth that the other dragon head who had already been born was Viserys, not Rhaenys

You've already had this explained to you in this thread. The three heads (the Sigil of their house) represent the conquerors (brother and two sisters). Though we don't know if he expected the same 1 brother and 2 sisters dynamic. But he probably was expecting 3 siblings as the 3 heads. We already know that Viserys was appearing a bit crazy (based on Barristan). If Rhaegar thought Viserys was one of the heads he would have been trying to take him under his wing.

- That Rhaegar consciously tried to emulate/recreate Aegon and his sisters. If that had been the case he would have named his daughter Visenya, not Rhaenys

1.) Viserys is already a derivative of that name. Perhaps he thought it would be confusing to have two Targaryen children near the same age running around with the same name. 2.) He wouldn't have to name them the same or even in the same order.

Rhaegar believed that there had to be a third dragon head,

Why were the above quotes listed as: "What we know" and this as "Speculation". I think you have some of these in the wrong sections. We know he believed there had to be a third head because the vision states it as so. The only way he doesn't believe this is if the vision was twisted and used him to convey a message to Dany.

[SFDanny]

so Rhaegar naming his firstborn daughter "Rhaenys" rather than "Visenya," when it was Visenya who was the oldest seems an interesting deviation.

It is interesting. And if we knew the exact wording of the prophecy, or more likely prophecies, that move Rhaegar's thinking during which time it might be even more interesting. What we do know is that Rhaegar changes his mind about who is the Prince who was Promised with the conception and birth of Aegon. Before that he thought he was the Prince who was Promised. That he had named his child Rhaenys, not Visenya, before he changes his mind about his own role, tells me he has rethought the whole prophecy. That he names his son Aegon, AND specifically says there most be one more - meaning one more child - because the dragon has three heads points strongly to Aegon and his sisters. For Targaryens, the only three headed dragon is Aegon "the dragon" and his sisters Visenya and Rhaenys. That is where the sigil comes from. Not before the Doom of Valyria, not before the conquest, and not from any Targaryens after the conquest. That he references his own children when telling Elia about the three headed dragon is a clear reference to Aegon and his sisters and comparing them to his children. If he had the same mindset before Rhaenys was born, perhaps she would have been named Visenya.

But do we know that he is specifically referring to Rhaenys?

Aemon himself alludes to the fact that a princess had not been considered until Dany, so I would imagine that since Aemon and Rhaegar corresponded, that they were of a like mind on a prince.

He says that if only Aerys had married Rhaegar to Cersei, she could have given him all the sons he wanted.

.

No, but when he tells Elia there must be one more, he is clearly pointing to one more child because the dragon has three heads. Could he have meant someone other than Rhaenys as one of the existing two of the needed three? Very unlikely or why the need to father another child himself? The context is the birth of his son, and telling his wife he needs another child.

[Lord Varys]

Rhaenys,

that is essentially where my 'time line argument' sets in. If Starkish 'ice' had convinced Rhaegar Lyanna must be the mother of the promised prince or a dragon head he would have come up with the argument at Harrenhal when he first met and fell in love with her. If there is a thing that would have opened him up to change his mind and try to fiddle Lyanna into the prophecy it would have been when he was close to her, interacting with her.

This doesn't mean that the ice-and-fire combination in Jon Snow may not be a point in all that, all I'm saying is that I very much doubt that Rhaegar consciously chose Lyanna as mother of the third head because of her Starkish ice. And I also don't believe he changed his mind on the identity of the promised prince again. He never lived to see Jon's birth, after all. If he changed his mind the only explanation I could see for this is that he spoke to the Ghost of High Heart when he went into the Riverlands but we don't know anything about that yet.

Avalatis,

if the three dragon heads go back to the original promised prince prophecy the Targaryens have then Rhaegar's three dragon heads may actually have no direct connection to heraldic dragon with three heads. There may be an indirect connection, though, if Aegon and his sisters chose to identify themselves as a three-headed dragon because they originally thought that they were the three dragon heads (and Aegon the promised prince), or if they wanted to make a reference to that prophecy with their heraldry.

On Viserys:

He was in his parents' care - especially his father's, at least at first. Aerys would never have allowed Rhaegar to take the boy 'under his wing'. Not after Duskendale.

[Rhaegarslance]

Interesting interview with Kit Harington from the leading Italian newspaper 'la Repubblica'. I'll translate a few passages, trying to stay as faithful to the text as I can:

Channeling Rhaegar? lol

Step-father???

Last BUT not least...

I have the feeling that in the course of the next season such a mystery [Jon's parentage] will be slowly unveiled.

That 'next' is subject to interpretation. My impression is they are talking about this season, the second part of the interview (the one including the spoiler tagged passage) being all about the upcoming season 5. Make of it what you will ;)

Update: Added the screenshots if you are unable to follow the link to the article.

Lol so Jon is the son of Catelyn??? :ack:

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I think Kit meant next season as the 6th one and yes, I think this is the one when it will be revealed. Why? Because GRRM is talking about finishing book 6 before the end of the year. That would make the book being released before the show, hence, the books will tell us the big mystery before the show.

[UnmaskedLurker]

So could Rhaegar have changed his mind? Yes, of course... But if you ask me, that would only have been possible after Lyanna gave birth, and not before.

While Rhaegar could not be sure until after the birth to see if it is a boy -- he could think it likely -- pending whether the baby turned out to be a boy or girl. In other words, Rhaegar might have thought that if the baby is a boy and if any of the other signs appear, he would have one more apparent criteria than Aegon, and so Rhaegar better hold his opinion in reserve because he might have been wrong a second time. So when I say he changed his mind, what I really mean is that he decided that Aegon might not be TPTWP and was waiting for Jon (or whatever his name was to be) to be born to make a final determination. The Ice/Fire connection would have led to a reconsideration and perhaps even an expectation that this child likely would be the real one -- pending further evidence at the time of birth (which of course Rhaegar never lived to see).

But do we know that he is specifically referring to Rhaenys?

Aemon himself alludes to the fact that a princess had not been considered until Dany, so I would imagine that since Aemon and Rhaegar corresponded, that they were of a like mind on a prince.

Aemon only states that they thought TPTWP would be male. He never said that the other two heads also had to be male. I agree that Rhaegar never would have considered Rhaenys a candidate to be TPTWP, but one of the other two heads of the dragon -- absolutely. In context, it simply makes more sense that when Rhaegar says there must be one more because the dragon has three heads that he means one more child because he already has two and he needs three. Can I be 100% certain? No. But does it make more sense that him thinking that he or Viserys is the other head -- absolutely.

[Avalatis]

Avalatis,

if the three dragon heads go back to the original promised prince prophecy the Targaryens have then Rhaegar's three dragon heads may actually have no direct connection to heraldic dragon with three heads. There may be an indirect connection, though, if Aegon and his sisters chose to identify themselves as a three-headed dragon because they originally thought that they were the three dragon heads (and Aegon the promised prince), or if they wanted to make a reference to that prophecy with their heraldry.

On Viserys:

He was in his parents' care - especially his father's, at least at first. Aerys would never have allowed Rhaegar to take the boy 'under his wing'. Not after Duskendale.

Who knows we have no text for the prophecy. There can be more than one prophecy at play here that Rhaegar is tying together. We have no indication that Rhaegar was close to Viserys or even attempted to be close. If he truly believed that Viserys was one of the 3 heads you would think he would try and be involved in his brother's life. Also why would Viserys be a head but not Rhaegar? Why was Rhaegar so convinced that he was the PTWP?

[Ygrain]

Why was Rhaegar so convinced that he was the PTWP?

IIRC, Aemon says that they thought that "born among salt and smoke" referred to the tragedy of Summerhall where Rhaegar was born.

[sj4iy]

IIRC, Aemon says that they thought that "born among salt and smoke" referred to the tragedy of Summerhall where Rhaegar was born.

He also was born of the line of Aerys and Rhaella, who were forced to marry because their descendent would be TPTWP.

[Ygrain]

He also was born of the line of Aerys and Rhaella, who were forced to marry because their descendent would be TPTWP.

I kinda left out the obvious :P

ETA: Could the three dragon heads be somehow interconnected with the PTWP prophecy, and thus the lack of a third sibling in his own generation might have contributed to Rhaegar changing his mind and thinking that PTWP will be the next generation?

[addicted to snow]

IIRC, Aemon says that they thought that "born among salt and smoke" referred to the tragedy of Summerhall where Rhaegar was born.

If Rhaegar truly believed this then 1) we have another reason to question his in intelligence, or 2) Rhaegar's obsession with prophesy had consumed him to the point that the was able to mentally rationalize/justify even the most obscure and farfetched Salt/Smoke references & links to himself. He was probably undergoing the beginning stages of the Targaryen Madness...

[TheMaxxx]

Because I haven't in a while...

I think that crowning Lyanna had nothing to do with prohecy. I think that Rhaegar was smitten, the first time in his life, just like Jorah was smitten with Lynesse, but Rhaegar was married, and dutiful. He had a wife, and a world to save, and crowning Lyanna was about the furthest he could go (just like Barristan crowning Ashara). Only after he realized that he wouldn't be able to fulfill the prohecy with Elia, did he start to act on his feelings, with the prophecy giving him an excuse to skip, or perhaps broaden, his marital duty.

BTW, show!Selyse perceives Stannis bedding Mel as a blessing to save the world. I can't recall, does book!Selyse express such sentiments?

Same here. Obviously the timeline doesn't fit for R+L=J and people twist what Martin did say about the timeline because they HAVE to because that theory HAS to be true because it's a necessary condition for the contingent theory; that Jon is the ice and Dany is the fire. These are straight up logical fallacies: starting with conclusions then working backwards to cherry pick (or outright twist and distort) pieces in order to make the premise true.

Hell, Ser Barristan says point blank that Ashara turned to a Stark, Ned. And Martin's been trying to get readers to accept the fact that Ashara was NOT in Starfall the entire time, saying straight up that these fans are wrong. But you know how fanboy theories go.

Rhaegar and Lyanna fell in love and ran off. It's also why Lyanna made Ned promise he would keep her secret. She loved Rhaegar and didn't want to be with Robert, which was the main reason why the entire war started. Rhaegar didn't leave a pregnant woman ready to have a baby in a tower by herself with a good book and some food, somewhat obviously. He left a probably somewhat sick lover in a tower. As Martin has said time and again, his works are very Shakespearean (House Lannister is, literally, House Lancaster and House Stark is, literally, House York form War of the Roses he's said over and over again).

Two star crossed lovers who die and whose love starts a war? Sound familiar at all. It's the Romeo and Juliet paradigm.

Which by the way, the Ned and Ashara as Hamlet and Ophelia paradigm, particularly the Ashara as Ophelia model is almost a second rate rip-off, which in the fifth book Martin has been repeatedly accused of. (There are, literally, many Shakespearean quotes actually plagarized in the fifth book it got so bad. In fact, one of if not THE most famous quote from Julius Caesar is directly lifted and placed in that book and spoken by the Reed boy, which has caused more than one professor of literature to groan over the years.) Ned kills a family member and Ashara jumps to her death. That is, again literally, a scene that's actually plagarized as some literary commentators have angrily noted. Ophelia becomes despondent and jumps to her death because Hamlet kills a family member.

Fans don't like their pet theories to be wrong. Even when the author hints, or directly states something, that just does nothing to sway fanboy theories and never has in fact.

This used to happen at cocktail parties and bar-b-q's where fans would stand around and demand, DEMAND, that Herbert made it clear in Dune "insert fan theory here". This is nothing new, at all. It's in fact quite the cliche in literature going back about 50 years now.

When Jaws came out it was sharks planted by the mayor.

In Blade Runner, Deckard was not just a replicant but a replicant with fake memories that came from a real Blade Runner.

The all time best, ever? That's easy: Stanley Kubrick helped the government fake the moon landings and the movie, The Shinning, actually contained a mount of hints and tidbits Stanley put in so that the more observant viewers would get the REAL meaning behind the movie: it was an apology from Kubrick for being involved in faking the moon landings.

Sound nutty? Well I'm old and I can tell you that was a BIGGER theory, supported by more people in the early 1980's than R+L=J could ever hope to be.

Yeah, this is nothing new.

[Lord Varys]

Since we know about the Ghost's prophecy it is kind of obvious that Rhaegar never came to the conclusion that he was the promised prince all by himself. His parents must have fed him the idea. They knew that they supposed to bring forth the promised prince and for a long time they had only a single child. Rhaella/Aerys would have told little Rhaegar that he was special, and told him about the Ghost's prophecy. When he wanted to know who and what he exactly was they would have given him the promised prince prophecy the Targaryens had - most likely a scroll recovered by King Aerys I.

Aemon tells us that he and Rhaegar believed that Rhaegar was the One due to the tears and smoke of Summerhall - a conclusion possibly not originating with Rhaegar but with the survivors of Summerhall (i.e. Jaehaerys, Shaera, Aerys, Rhaella). When Rhaegar's life later didn't show any other signs and portents indicating that he was the promised prince everyone would have become more skeptical. Rhaegar may have figured out/began believing that Dragonstone was the place of smoke and salt after he moved there (or moved there because he found out).

Aegon would then have had two more signs to Rhaegar's one:

- birth on Dragonstone

- a comet in the night of his conception

It seems that the promised prince prophecy of the Targaryens is a very detailed one, possibly because she is the original version or based on the account of a very skilled seer (possibly Daenys the Dreamer). It seems to include all the stuff Melisandre mentions, and more (the three dragon heads, for instance).

In fact, if we go with the assumption that Melisandre is Shiera's daughter by Bloodraven, it may actually be that Shiera told her little Melony about the savior and stuff. After all, it seems that Aerys I had already uncovered the promised prince prophecy as Egg tells Dunk in TMK that his uncle has read about the return of the dragons in an ancient prophecy. As Bloodraven's paramour Shiera could have been a member of Aerys' 'sorcerer circle' to which the king himself, Bloodraven, and apparently the new Grand Maester belonged.

[Ygrain]

snip

And you quote my post before your rant because...? I never disputed R+L=J, just the assumption that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna was prophecy-driven.

And BTW, Barristan does NOT say that Ashara turned to Ned Stark. Given what other information we receive in ADWD, it seems that the Stark in question was Brandon, not Ned (for whom dishonouring and impregnating Ashara would be out of character).

[BearQueen87]

If Rhaegar truly believed this then 1) we have another reason to question his in intelligence, or 2) Rhaegar's obsession with prophesy had consumed him to the point that the was able to mentally rationalize/justify even the most obscure and farfetched Salt/Smoke references & links to himself. He was probably undergoing the beginning stages of the Targaryen Madness...

Because prophecies are totally clear and easy to understand? It's one (rather natural) conclusion to draw.

[Alia of the knife]

Same here. Obviously the timeline doesn't fit for R+L=J and people twist what Martin did say about the timeline because they HAVE to because that theory HAS to be true because it's a necessary condition for the contingent theory; that Jon is the ice and Dany is the fire. These are straight up logical fallacies: starting with conclusions then working backwards to cherry pick (or outright twist and distort) pieces in order to make the premise true.

Hell, Ser Barristan says point blank that Ashara turned to a Stark, Ned. And Martin's been trying to get readers to accept the fact that Ashara was NOT in Starfall the entire time, saying straight up that these fans are wrong. But you know how fanboy theories go.

Rhaegar and Lyanna fell in love and ran off. It's also why Lyanna made Ned promise he would keep her secret. She loved Rhaegar and didn't want to be with Robert, which was the main reason why the entire war started. Rhaegar didn't leave a pregnant woman ready to have a baby in a tower by herself with a good book and some food, somewhat obviously. He left a probably somewhat sick lover in a tower. As Martin has said time and again, his works are very Shakespearean (House Lannister is, literally, House Lancaster and House Stark is, literally, House York form War of the Roses he's said over and over again).

Two star crossed lovers who die and whose love starts a war? Sound familiar at all. It's the Romeo and Juliet paradigm.

Which by the way, the Ned and Ashara as Hamlet and Ophelia paradigm, particularly the Ashara as Ophelia model is almost a second rate rip-off, which in the fifth book Martin has been repeatedly accused of. (There are, literally, many Shakespearean quotes actually plagarized in the fifth book it got so bad. In fact, one of if not THE most famous quote from Julius Caesar is directly lifted and placed in that book and spoken by the Reed boy, which has caused more than one professor of literature to groan over the years.) Ned kills a family member and Ashara jumps to her death. That is, again literally, a scene that's actually plagarized as some literary commentators have angrily noted. Ophelia becomes despondent and jumps to her death because Hamlet kills a family member.

Fans don't like their pet theories to be wrong. Even when the author hints, or directly states something, that just does nothing to sway fanboy theories and never has in fact.

This used to happen at cocktail parties and bar-b-q's where fans would stand around and demand, DEMAND, that Herbert made it clear in Dune "insert fan theory here". This is nothing new, at all. It's in fact quite the cliche in literature going back about 50 years now.

When Jaws came out it was sharks planted by the mayor.

In Blade Runner, Deckard was not just a replicant but a replicant with fake memories that came from a real Blade Runner.

The all time best, ever? That's easy: Stanley Kubrick helped the government fake the moon landings and the movie, The Shinning, actually contained a mount of hints and tidbits Stanley put in so that the more observant viewers would get the REAL meaning behind the movie: it was an apology from Kubrick for being involved in faking the moon landings.

Sound nutty? Well I'm old and I can tell you that was a BIGGER theory, supported by more people in the early 1980's than R+L=J could ever hope to be.

Yeah, this is nothing new.

Actually the Targaryens and Blackfyres are York and Lancaster.

The Seven kingdoms, the seven kingdoms of England before the Normans and William the Conqueror.

And Ned is the Duke in the North, or more like the powerful medieval baronial family, the Earls of Northumberland.

Nothing wrong with borrowing from history and literature so long as the story is a good one.

[RumHam]

Since we know about the Ghost's prophecy it is kind of obvious that Rhaegar never came to the conclusion that he was the promised prince all by himself. His parents must have fed him the idea. They knew that they supposed to bring forth the promised prince and for a long time they had only a single child. Rhaella/Aerys would have told little Rhaegar that he was special, and told him about the Ghost's prophecy. When he wanted to know who and what he exactly was they would have given him the promised prince prophecy the Targaryens had - most likely a scroll recovered by King Aerys I.

If this is the case then it seems odd that Rhaegar later discovered something in his scrolls that convinced him he had to be a warrior. Shouldn't he have already known? Did Aerys and Rhaella teach him that the Prince that was Promised would save the world through reading?

I tend to think that Aerys didn't really put too much stock in the rambling's of Jenny's woods witch, but I couldn't be wrong.

And you quote my post before your rant because...? I never disputed R+L=J, just the assumption that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna was prophecy-driven.

And BTW, Barristan does NOT say that Ashara turned to Ned Stark. Given what other information we receive in ADWD, it seems that the Stark in question was Brandon, not Ned (for whom dishonouring and impregnating Ashara would be out of character).

Yeah the Stark in question has to be Brandon. Barristan thinks that grief over the loss of her child and the man who dishonored her drove her to suicide. Ned was of course not dead at that point.

[Lord Varys]

RumHum,

hm. Aerys/Rhaella may have allowed him to pursue his own scholarly interest up to a point. When they decided to tell him who he (supposedly) was, they also gave Rhaegar the prophecy to read and he, accepting that this was his destiny, decided that he should now better become a warrior.

I'd be surprised if Aerys/Rhaella would have allowed their son to develop the delusion that he was the world's savior on his own - or rather, I doubt that Rhaegar would have developed that delusion if his parents had not fed the idea to him.