R+L=J v.139

[UnmaskedLurker]

LV--

I appreciate you laying out your thoughts more clearly. From that -- I can more clearly demonstrate where we disagree.

1) The HotU vision makes it clear to me that Rhaegar came to believe that he would be the father of the 3 heads of the dragon. I am not sure when he formed this belief -- likely at the time he disguarded the belief that he himself was TPTWP, but timing is not really important. What is clear to me is that Rhaegar came to believe that he would be the father of the 3HD and it would be 3 of his children. He almost certainly was incorrect in this belief, but I think his statement in the vision, combined with Aemon's statement (when he suggests that Dany is TPTWP) confirming that he and Rhaegar expected 3 Targs to be the 3HD. So having 3 children would be imperative in Rhaegar's mind. I am not sure why you discount the evidence that Rhaegar believed he needed to father the 3HD. No matter how crazy you think this belief would have been, I think it is clear that Rhaegar had this belief.

2. You suggest that if Rhaegar would ever make the Ice/Fire connection, it would be at Harrenhal when he became interested in Lyanna, and don't understand why I would content that Rhaegar would still expect the promise prince to come from Elia. The answer is simple. At Harrenhal, Aegon is not born yet, and thus Rhaegar has not been told that Elia cannot have more children. Central to my theory is the contention that Rhaegar never would have considered taking a second wife or having a child with a woman other than his wife unless and until he is told that Elia can have no more children. So at the time of Harrenhal, Rhaegar believes he will be the father of TPTWP and the 3HD (one of whom is TPTWP), and Rhaegar would never consider having a child with someone other than his wife. So given these two beliefs at the time of Harrenhal, of course Rhaegar would not consider Lyanna to be a possible mother of TPTWP or a head of the dragon because at that time Rhaegar never would have considered taking a second wife or having a child with someone other than his wife, Elia.

3. At the time that Aegon is born, Rhaegar does not know that Elia will be told she can have no more children. So at the time of the HotU vision, Rhaegar talks about Aegon being TPTWP and talks about needing one more child to complete the 3HD (there must be one more). So at that time Rhaegar still would not consider having a child with anyone other than Elia, and thus he would not consider the Ice/Fire connection because it was impossible -- Rhaegar was married to Elia -- would father all 3 heads -- and thus Elia would be mother to all 3 heads. But then Rhaegar is told Elia can have no more children. So now Rhaegar is faced with the belief that he must have one more child to complete the 3HD (and yes, I understand that logically, he could have thought maybe the third head is not going to be his child -- but he is fixated on the notion that he will father all 3 heads so that conclusion is unwavering, no matter how unreasonable a belief -- it is clear he had it). So if Rhaegar believes he MUST be the father of the 3 heads, and Elia can have no more children, then Rhaegar must have a child with a different woman. Only at that moment, when Rhaegar considers that it would be necessary to have a child with someone other than Elia (which would occur only after Harrenhal, after Aegon is born and after Rhaegar is told Elia can have no more children) would Rhaegar's thought turn to Lyanna as the mother of one of his children. Once Rhaegar considers that Lyanna might be mother to one of his children, the Ice/Fire connection would become clear. But he would never have even allowed himself to consider the possibility that Lyanna and he would have a child until AFTER Elia is told she can have no more children and Rhaegar does not yet have the 3 children he believes he is prophecized to have to complete the 3HD. But once Rhaegar must have the third head with a different woman, Rhaegar would be free to allow himself to consider Lyanna and then make the Ice/Fire connection.

So you suggest that it is mysterious why Rhaegar does not make the Ice/Fire connection sooner if he is to make it at all. The answer is that he cannot consider this connection until Elia cannot have a 3rd child and Rhaegar must turn to another woman to have the 3rd head. This reason also explains why when Aegon is born, he seems to fit all the criteria for TPTWP, but once Rhaegar decides he must have the 3rd head with another woman and turns to Lyanna, the puzzle pieces would fit into place and Rhaegar would realize that a son to them would be ASOIAF, personified.

[Lord Varys]

UL,

I don't not doubt that Rhaegar believed he had to father the three heads - that's clear - I fault him for his reasoning that he believed that he had for that, as far as we know, no (good) evidence. There were three young Targaryens alive when Aegon was born - Viserys, Rhaenys, and Aegon. There was no need for a third head unless Rhaegar had the means to determine who was such a dragon head (and he clearly did not).

There was no rationale for this reasoning and thus Rhaegar should have been unable to convince anyone (Elia, Arthur, Oswell, Aerys, Rhaella, whoever you want) that marrying or making out with Lyanna was 'necessary' to 'fulfill a prophecy'.

Especially not if Rhaegar was also in love with the woman he happened 'to have sex with'. No one would buy that.

And again, the time line has Rhaegar not believing that his second child by Elia was the promised prince at Harrenhal - thus it makes no sense to go with 'I have to have more children at all or specifically with that wife'. He couldn't even be sure that Aegon was the promised prince - if Elia had given Rhaegar six stillborn daughters I doubt he would have have believed any of them was destined to be the promised prince, no?

Do I understand you correctly? Rhaegar's love/feelings for Lyanna at Harrenhal do not matter back then they only do matter when Elia turns out to be infertile after Aegon's birth? You think Rhaegar would have had a third child with Elia had she been able to conceive a third time after Aegon's birth? You assume that the love part of this whole thing was secondary or that Rhaegar had it 'under control' and only gave in when Elia was unable to conceive children?

I also don't understand how you could believe that Rhaegar believed he would become father of the promised prince at Harrenhal. Back then, Aegon was not yet born, and since nothing suggests Rhaegar read a prophecy about himself being the father of the promised prince he may have hoped - due to the comet thing - that Aegon would turn out male and be the promised prince, but he could not believe he was destined to father him. Only after he concluded that Aegon was the promised prince would he have concluded that he also had to father the third head - after all, everything would have changed if Aegon had turned out to be female or a stillbirth/miscarriage/abomination/lackwit.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I don't not doubt that Rhaegar believed he had to father the three heads - that's clear - I fault him for his reasoning that he believed that he had for that, as far as we know, no (good) evidence. There were three young Targaryens alive when Aegon was born - Viserys, Rhaenys, and Aegon. There was no need for a third head unless Rhaegar had the means to determine who was such a dragon head (and he clearly did not).

There was no rationale for this reasoning and thus Rhaegar should have been unable to convince anyone (Elia, Arthur, Oswell, Aerys, Rhaella, whoever you want) that marrying or making out with Lyanna was 'necessary' to 'fulfill a prophecy'.

Especially not if Rhaegar was also in love with the woman he happened 'to have sex with'. No one would buy that.

None of the above is relevant to the debate we are having. Don't get sidetracked. The question is what Rhaegar believed -- not what Rhaegar could convince others. I don't agree with your analysis, but it is a completely different issue and completely irrelevant to what we are debating regarding whether Rhaegar changed his mind.

And again, the time line has Rhaegar not believing that his second child by Elia was the promised prince at Harrenhal - thus it makes no sense to go with 'I have to have more children at all or specifically with that wife'. He couldn't even be sure that Aegon was the promised prince - if Elia had given Rhaegar six stillborn daughters I doubt he would have have believed any of them was destined to be the promised prince, no?

I am not sure of your point here. Rhaegar believes he will father the 3HD. He suspects the child conceived under the comet is TPTWP but needs to wait to see if he is a boy. If Aegon had been a girl, then Rhaegar likely would have concluded that while a head of the dragon, likely the third child will be TPTWP. If the third child is then a girl, Rhaegar would need to re-think things. But he will not consider re-thinking unless and until he had 3 girls.

Do I understand you correctly? Rhaegar's love/feelings for Lyanna at Harrenhal do not matter back then they only do matter when Elia turns out to be infertile after Aegon's birth? You think Rhaegar would have had a third child with Elia had she been able to conceive a third time after Aegon's birth? You assume that the love part of this whole thing was secondary or that Rhaegar had it 'under control' and only gave in when Elia was unable to conceive children?

Yes, you understand me correctly. It is the crux of my argument. I have made it over and over again. I am glad you finally get that this is my argument. No matter his feelings for Lyanna, he never would have considered having a child with her if Elia had not become infertile. This plot point is there for a reason. Elia not being able to have a third child is the entire point. Rhaegar is basically an honorable person (as Ned states regarding the brothel comparison to Robert). I believe that no matter how Rhaegar felt about Lyanna, there is a zero percent (0%) chance he considers any possibility of having a child with anyone other than Elia until he finds out she can have no more children. And then, only the belief the he will father the 3HD drives him to find an alternative to have a third child. Personally, I think he has made his beliefs about the 3HD clear enough to Elia that she would believe that he beleives that he needs to have a 3rd child with another woman. BUT this issue is a side point and not relevant to the issue at hand.

I also don't understand how you could believe that Rhaegar believed he would become father of the promised prince at Harrenhal. Back then, Aegon was not yet born, and since nothing suggests Rhaegar read a prophecy about himself being the father of the promised prince he may have hoped - due to the comet thing - that Aegon would turn out male and be the promised prince, but he could not believe he was destined to father him. Only after he concluded that Aegon was the promised prince would he have concluded that he also had to father the third head - after all, everything would have changed if Aegon had turned out to be female or a stillbirth/miscarriage/abomination/lackwit.

What is there not to understand? It really does not matter when Rhaegar made this conclusion. As you suggest, after Aegon is born, Rhaegar concludes he needs to father the third head. Or maybe Rhaegar concluded earlier that he would father the 3HD. It really does not matter to my argument. My argument is that no matter the clues that led Rhaegar to think that Aegon likely would be TPTWP, having a child with Lyanna, Ice to his Fire, would be a bigger clue that this child likely would be TPTWP. Rhaegar does not need to have this belief at Harrenhal. He only forms this belief after he learns Elia can have no more children and decides to have a child with Lyanna. At that point, and only at that point, would the pieces be in place to enable Rhaegar to make this conclusion. So even if you are right that he only thinks he needs the third head after he comes to believe Aegon is TPTWP after Aegon is born, once Rhaegar then realizes that he will have a child with Lyanna, his thinking would shift again.

[Nami]

In the end if it comes down to that he wanted a third child, it only makes sense that he chose Lyanna because feelings were involved, otherwise he could have chosen any other close to him.

The argument that he chose Lyanna only because he needed a third child makes no sense.

[UnmaskedLurker]

In the end if it comes down to that he wanted a third child, it only makes sense that he chose Lyanna because feelings were involved, otherwise he could have chosen any other close to him.

The argument that he chose Lyanna only because he needed a third child makes no sense.

I never said that. He considered having a child with someone other than Elia only after he finds out she can have no more children. Once he realizes that to have a third child another woman will have to be the mother, it makes sense that he would turn to a woman who interested him. So he did not choose Lyanna only because he needed a third child. He chose another woman because Elia could have no more children and Rhaegar needed 3. Once he knew he needed another woman, Lyanna became the natural choice because he fancied her. Then he made the Ice/Fire connection.

[Frey family reunion]

LV--

I appreciate you laying out your thoughts more clearly. From that -- I can more clearly demonstrate where we disagree.

1) The HotU vision makes it clear to me that Rhaegar came to believe that he would be the father of the 3 heads of the dragon. I am not sure when he formed this belief -- likely at the time he disguarded the belief that he himself was TPTWP, but timing is not really important. What is clear to me is that Rhaegar came to believe that he would be the father of the 3HD and it would be 3 of his children. He almost certainly was incorrect in this belief, but I think his statement in the vision, combined with Aemon's statement (when he suggests that Dany is TPTWP) confirming that he and Rhaegar expected 3 Targs to be the 3HD. So having 3 children would be imperative in Rhaegar's mind. I am not sure why you discount the evidence that Rhaegar believed he needed to father the 3HD. No matter how crazy you think this belief would have been, I think it is clear that Rhaegar had this belief.

Just curious, where does it ever state that Rhaegar believed that his daughter was one of the heads of the dragon? Technically he doesn't specifically state that he believes that Aegon is one of the three heads, but we can at least infer this since he makes the comment about the dragon having three heads immediately after he refers to Aegon being the PTWP and his song being the SOIAF. Yet Rhaegar never mentions his daughter in either the HOTU vision or in Aemon's reminiscing.

-snip-

So you suggest that it is mysterious why Rhaegar does not make the Ice/Fire connection sooner if he is to make it at all. The answer is that he cannot consider this connection until Elia cannot have a 3rd child and Rhaegar must turn to another woman to have the 3rd head. This reason also explains why when Aegon is born, he seems to fit all the criteria for TPTWP, but once Rhaegar decides he must have the 3rd head with another woman and turns to Lyanna, the puzzle pieces would fit into place and Rhaegar would realize that a son to them would be ASOIAF, personified.

But we don't have anything to suggest that Rhaegar changed his opinion that Aegon was TPTWP. And during his disappearance he would have had plenty of time to communicate with Aemon who seemed to be one of his primary collaboraters. Yet Aemon believes that to Rhaegar's dying day he thought Aegon was TPTWP. Since Dany was being given a vision of a past event in the HOTU, if Rhaegar changed his mind later in life about Aegon being TPTWP, why wouldn't this vision have been shown to Dany rather than the vision of Rhaegar's conversation with Elia?

Sorry to but in on your conversation, but it seems to me that we are making a lot of assumptions trying to steer the clues to our desired result.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Just curious, where does it ever state that Rhaegar believed that his daughter was one of the heads of the dragon? Technically he doesn't specifically state that he believes that Aegon is one of the three heads, but we can at least infer this since he makes the comment about the dragon having three heads immediately after he refers to Aegon being the PTWP and his song being the SOIAF. Yet Rhaegar never mentions his daughter in either the HOTU vision or in Aemon's reminiscing.

But we don't have anything to suggest that Rhaegar changed his opinion that Aegon was TPTWP. And during his disappearance he would have had plenty of time to communicate with Aemon who seemed to be one of his primary collaboraters. Yet Aemon believes that to Rhaegar's dying day he thought Aegon was TPTWP. Since Dany was being given a vision of a past event in the HOTU, if Rhaegar changed his mind later in life about Aegon being TPTWP, why wouldn't this vision have been shown to Dany rather than the vision of Rhaegar's conversation with Elia?

Sorry to but in on your conversation, but it seems to me that we are making a lot of assumptions trying to steer the clues to our desired result.

You are not butting in. If we didn't want others to participate, we would debate via PM (which we have done before when spoilers were an issue). All non-trolling points of view are welcome. :leer:

Let me try to address your points.

I have little doubt that Rhaegar thought Rhaenys is one of the heads. Aegon is born. Rhaegar says that Aegon is TPTWP and that "There must be one more. The dragon has three heads." (or something close to those words). In that context, who else could be the second head? I think Rhaenys is the only logical conclusion. Is it 100% certainty -- no, but pretty close.

Now I have less confidence in my belief that Rhaegar changed his mind regarding the identity of TPTWP. My position really is just a working theory that makes sense to me logically. It is based on the following pieces of evidence: (1) Rhaegar is obsessed with prophecy; (2) Rhaegar has changed his mind at least once about who is TPTWP (first thinking he himself was); (3) something about the prophecy makes Rhaegar believe that the song of TPTWP is the song of ice and fire; (4) when Rheagar realizes that he needs someone other than Elia to give him a third child and turns to the woman he is interested in -- Lyanna -- the connection of her Ice to his Fire would become fairly obvious; and (5) WOIAF makes a point of stating that the Pact of Ice and Fire involved the marriage of a Targ and Stark. I am simply using deductive reasoning to come to a conclusion. It might be incorrect, but it seems to be supported by this evidence and makes sense to me.

As to the vision issue, that question has an obvious answer. First, GRRM cannot give away too much and any vision of Rhaegar and Lyanna would give away everything. Also, this vision has the magic words, "there must be one more" as a message to Dany. That is the important message -- that she needs to find the three heads of the dragon. It is not as important to let Dany know who Rhaegar thinks is TPTWP. What is important is to let Dany know that there are three heads and she needs to search for the others. So Rhaegar's conversation with Elia serves a dual purpose of giving the readers information about what Rhaegar was thinking and giving Dany information that she needs.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Oh, Rhaegar might just have thought of himself as one of the heads of the dragon. Or not :)

[Frey family reunion]

You are not butting in. If we didn't want others to participate, we would debate via PM (which we have done before when spoilers were an issue). All non-trolling points of view are welcome. :leer:

Let me try to address your points.

I have little doubt that Rhaegar thought Rhaenys is one of the heads. Aegon is born. Rhaegar says that Aegon is TPTWP and that "There must be one more. The dragon has three heads." (or something close to those words). In that context, who else could be the second head? I think Rhaenys is the only logical conclusion. Is it 100% certainty -- no, but pretty close.

Now I have less confidence in my belief that Rhaegar changed his mind regarding the identity of TPTWP. My position really is just a working theory that makes sense to me logically. It is based on the following pieces of evidence: (1) Rhaegar is obsessed with prophecy; (2) Rhaegar has changed his mind at least once about who is TPTWP (first thinking he himself was); (3) something about the prophecy makes Rhaegar believe that the song of TPTWP is the song of ice and fire; (4) when Rheagar realizes that he needs someone other than Elia to give him a third child and turns to the woman he is interested in -- Lyanna -- the connection of her Ice to his Fire would become fairly obvious; and (5) WOIAF makes a point of stating that the Pact of Ice and Fire involved the marriage of a Targ and Stark. I am simply using deductive reasoning to come to a conclusion. It might be incorrect, but it seems to be supported by this evidence and makes sense to me.

As to the vision issue, that question has an obvious answer. First, GRRM cannot give away too much and any vision of Rhaegar and Lyanna would give away everything. Also, this vision has the magic words, "there must be one more" as a message to Dany. That is the important message -- that she needs to find the three heads of the dragon. It is not as important to let Dany know who Rhaegar thinks is TPTWP. What is important is to let Dany know that there are three heads and she needs to search for the others. So Rhaegar's conversation with Elia serves a dual purpose of giving the readers information about what Rhaegar was thinking and giving Dany information that she needs.

But if the song of fire/ice was as simple as Tarygaryen = fire and Stark - Ice, why would Rhaegar have ever believed that Aegon's song was the Song of Ice and Fire? What about Aegon's birth would fit this interpretation? .

And I still don't see why Dany wouldn't be shown a more relevant vision in the HOTU. It seems that the main purpose of the vision is to imply that she is one of the heads of the dragon.

[Quorra]

I feel like I missed something when reading this - about why Rhaegar took Lyanna. Was he trying to incite Robert to attack in the hopes that he would kill Mad King Aerys?

[UnmaskedLurker]

But if the song of fire/ice was as simple as Tarygaryen = fire and Stark - Ice, why would Rhaegar have ever believed that Aegon's song was the Song of Ice and Fire? What about Aegon's birth would fit this interpretation? .

And I still don't see why Dany wouldn't be shown a more relevant vision in the HOTU. It seems that the main purpose of the vision is to imply that she is one of the heads of the dragon.

I think Rhaegar believes the song of TPTWP is the song of ice and fire because I suspect in his research of the prophecy it came up. So he was simply reporting to Elia what he knew about the prophecy relating to the song of TPTWP. I don't think Rhaegar knew what it meant but probably thought it meant that a Targ would battle something dealing with Ice. BUT then when he realizes he will have a child with Lyanna, I think he realized that song of ice and fire would fit as a description of their child and realize what the prophecy really meant by reference to that song.

Dany was shown a very relevant vision. The vision clearly lets Dany know that she is one of the heads and needs to find the others. That is all she needs to know and the vision tells her that. Anything more straight forward would give away too much and GRRM simply does not do that. Keep in mind the literary imperative as well.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I feel like I missed something when reading this - about why Rhaegar took Lyanna. Was he trying to incite Robert to attack in the hopes that he would kill Mad King Aerys?

Highly unlikely. I don't think R&L expected a huge reaction at all. They knew people would be upset -- in the extreme. But actually take serious action that might lead to war or rebellion, I doubt they thought that would happen at all. But first Brandon acted in a irresponsible way -- then Aerys was crazy and provoked everyone, and then things spiraled out of control.

I think Rhaegar took Lyanna because he needed a third head of the dragon and Elia was not able to have a third child. Rhaegar was risking punishment from his father for running off with Lyanna, so I believe he was going to stay hidden until a baby was born and then go to KL with his new wife and child in hopes that Aerys would accept them -- or maybe agree to go into exile if Aerys refused to accept them.

But this is all speculation on my part. We really don't know what Rhaegar and Lyanna were thinking. We can only guess from incomplete clues in the text.

[Nami]

I never said that. He considered having a child with someone other than Elia only after he finds out she can have no more children. Once he realizes that to have a third child another woman will have to be the mother, it makes sense that he would turn to a woman who interested him. So he did not choose Lyanna only because he needed a third child. He chose another woman because Elia could have no more children and Rhaegar needed 3. Once he knew he needed another woman, Lyanna became the natural choice because he fancied her. Then he made the Ice/Fire connection.

Why would he make the Ice and Fire connection if he already thought Aegon was the promised prince? With a comet and everything. Everything (aside from Ice and Fire song which we don't even know what exactly is about) pointed to him.

And really, do we know what the song of ice and fire is? Could be that maybe it isn't about the Targaryen and Stark houses, but about the battle in the winter using the flaming sword (Jon dreamed that he was wielding a flaming sword on the Wall.) We associate with those two houses because it is the only things we know.

[Frey family reunion]

Why would he make the Ice and Fire connection if he already thought Aegon was the promised prince? With a comet and everything. Everything (aside from Ice and Fire song which we don't even know what exactly is about) pointed to him.

And really, do we know what the song of ice and fire is? Could be that maybe it isn't about the Targaryen and Stark houses, but about the battle in the winter using the flaming sword (Jon dreamed that he was wielding a flaming sword on the Wall.) We associate with those two houses because it is the only things we know.

I'm inclined to agree that we really don't know what Rhaegar meant by the Song of Ice and Fire. I'm a bit dubious that it's as simple as a Targaryen Stark union. If I had to guess, I believe that it's somehow related to the oath that the Reeds give to Brandon Stark which culminates in a swearing by Ice and Fire.

[Seven Sighs]

Regarding why Ned would choose to not tell Catelyn the truth, keep in mind that he really didn't know her very well at all yet. He had stepped in to marry her only after his brother died. They had been wed only long enough to conceive Robb and then he went off to fight with Robert, leaving Cat pregnant and still at Riverrun. When the fighting ended, she then went to live with him at Winterfell, and Jon was already there with a wet nurse. So, he wasn't sure at the beginning of his secret that she could be trusted or would agree to go along with it.

[Lion of Lorath]

There is no textual evidence that Jon Snow is a Targaryen (i.e. born in a 'valid and legitimate polygamous marriage'). I also expect a confirmation of his real heritage in TWoW but whether the whole mystery will be unraveled there I'm not so sure. Perhaps we'll only get confirmation that he has Targaryen blood?

The idea that Jon Snow would be recognized as a Stark by the North because of, well, 'reasons' also makes no sense. Plenty of other Stark bastards in history also died as Stark bastards so I see no reason why the same should not happen to Jon Snow.

Only kings can legitimize bastards, and Robb Stark most likely recognized his half-brother Jon Snow, son of the late Lord Eddard Stark, not Jon Snow, parents unknown or, 'my dear cousin, whose mother was my late aunt, the Lady Lyanna Stark'. Thus Robb's legitimization does most likely not apply to Lyanna's son - and has no teeth now, anyway, as Ned Stark's bastard cannot leave the Night's Watch, and it is thus completely irrelevant if people consider him bastard-born or legitimate. There is no King in the North who can force the NW to release Jon Snow from his vows - not that he would want to leave, anyway.

Are you sure? Stannis talks about releasing Jon from his vows based on the precedent of Joffrey releasing Barristan from his vows. And Jon seems to have no problem with leaving the NW... even though it wasn't explicitly said, he successfully became the King-Beyond-the-Wall at the end of ADWD by fulfilling the sole criteria (i.e. rallying all of the Free Folk to follow you.)

[IceFire125]

Regarding why Ned would choose to not tell Catelyn the truth, keep in mind that he really didn't know her very well at all yet. He had stepped in to marry her only after his brother died. They had been wed only long enough to conceive Robb and then he went off to fight with Robert, leaving Cat pregnant and still at Riverrun. When the fighting ended, she then went to live with him at Winterfell, and Jon was already there with a wet nurse. So, he wasn't sure at the beginning of his secret that she could be trusted or would agree to go along with it.

Actually, Ned have plenty of time, years even, to be upfront and reveal who Jon true Mother was. I've long believe if Cat were to show genuine kindness, maybe even going above and beyond, showing true affection towards Jon, similar to how she show her blood children, I think Ned may change his mind in the long run.

If the night where she asked Ned about Ashara, showing some relation to Jon, never happened, I think Ned would be reasonable enough in years to come to change his mind and reveal to her why he brought Jon to Winterfell.

[addicted to snow]

Actually, Ned have plenty of time, years even, to be upfront and reveal who Jon true Mother was. I've long believe if Cat were to show genuine kindness, maybe even going above and beyond, showing true affection towards Jon, similar to how she show her blood children, I think Ned may change his mind in the long run.

If the night where she asked Ned about Ashara, showing some relation to Jon, never happened, I think Ned would be reasonable enough in years to come to change his mind and reveal to her why he brought Jon to Winterfell.

Reasonable??? What are you talking about?

When you want to keep a secret, you don't tell it to anyone... Anything else is totally unreasonable...

[Jon Weirgaryen]

I feel like I missed something when reading this - about why Rhaegar took Lyanna. Was he trying to incite Robert to attack in the hopes that he would kill Mad King Aerys?

No, I think two theories are going strong. It might be either one, or it might be both are true. They stem mostly from the second or the third book (read them in turn :) ).

1. Rhaegar needed another child, and Elia was unable to deliver him another heir after birthing Rhaenys and than Aegon. So Rhaegar remembered having met Lyanna at the Grand Tourney at Harrenhal, and on his own or as some phantasize after council with Elia, he went out to abduct her. Nowing he was married to a Southern princess and had stolen a Northern princess, he went into hiding for tempers to cool down. (Main source stems from Danys vision in ACoK 48 Daenerys IV)

2. Mad king Aerys II was told that Lyanna Stark was his personal enemy, so he ordered her to be seized and burned. Rhaegar learned of this only a moment too late, rushed to outrun his father's soldiers and almost made it, so it came to fighting. Rhaegar, having his kingsguard with him made it and rescued Lyanna. Now having committed a treason against the king, he went into hiding for king Aerys's temper to cool down. (Main source stems from Jojen's fairy tale in ASoS 24 Bran II)

[SFDanny]

UL,

I don't not doubt that Rhaegar believed he had to father the three heads - that's clear - I fault him for his reasoning that he believed that he had for that, as far as we know, no (good) evidence. There were three young Targaryens alive when Aegon was born - Viserys, Rhaenys, and Aegon. There was no need for a third head unless Rhaegar had the means to determine who was such a dragon head (and he clearly did not).

The three headed dragon is specific in Targaryen history. They have no sigil until it is made after the conquest, and it refers to Aegon and his sisters. Not to Aegon and his sister and his uncle. Not to three random Targaryens. Or so Rhaegar believes. For whatever reason Rhaegar believes he has to father the new three headed dragon, one of which he believes is the Prince who was Promised; it is clear, I think, that he is trying to recreate the Conqueror, Visenya, and Rhaenys in his children. He names his first two children Rhaenys and Aegon to reflect this. Perhaps because he believes new Conquerors will again bring dragons to Westeros. That he doesn't name Rhaenys Visenya, and would have a very hard time naming Jon either Rhaenys or Visenya if he had lived to see him, only shows what we already knew - Rhaegar got his read of prophecy wrong. A rather important point, but not relevant to what Rhaegar believed at the time. Marwyn is right - prophecy will bite your prick off every time. Perhaps that's why women seem better at reading these things :)

For what it is worth, I think we have mixture of different sources that effect Rhaegar's beliefs. The prophecy about the Prince who was Promised born amidst Salt and smoke is clearly part of this, but so too are the visions of the Ghost of High Heart who foretells the Prince will be born of Aerys and Rhaella's line. Add in a few other sources and it's all a jumble - especially for the reader who never gets to read first hand any of the prophecies.