[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 3

[aryagonnakill#2]

Jaime never even saw Shagwell fight so I have no idea where you are getting that from. You are right though, I did assume you didn't like Brienne and I apologize for that, but I think your dead wrong about her skill level, and Shagwells. Shagwell wounded Brienne with a broken spear against a VS sword. Rorge weighed like 300 lbs and was taller than Brienne as well. As for your statement that sellswords and mercenaries are not good fighters, I think that is pretty ridiculous and flies in the face of everything we have seen. Dario, Bronn, the GC, mercenaries fight all the time, in real battles with real swords, whereas many of the knights we see in the story were never in a real battle in their lives. IMO, and I've never been in a mid evil battle, if you make it threw like a dozen battles that you must be a pretty good fighter.

[ChillyPolly]

Rorge weighed like 300 lbs and was taller than Brienne as well.

I think you're wrong about the "taller" part. Brienne is about 6'8" or 6'9" (4" taller than Renly who in turn is nearly as tall as Robert who is 6'6"). Unless I missed something, I don't think we have any indication that Rorge is nearly that tall.

[ChillyPolly]

I think a lot of people underestimate the skill required to take on multiple opponents at a time and win. That really is a remarkable achievement, even when the opponents are significantly inferior in skill.

[HexMachina]

Jaime never even saw Shagwell fight so I have no idea where you are getting that from. You are right though, I did assume you didn't like Brienne and I apologize for that, but I think your dead wrong about her skill level, and Shagwells. Shagwell wounded Brienne with a broken spear against a VS sword. Rorge weighed like 300 lbs and was taller than Brienne as well. As for your statement that sellswords and mercenaries are not good fighters, I think that is pretty ridiculous and flies in the face of everything we have seen. Dario, Bronn, the GC, mercenaries fight all the time, in real battles with real swords, whereas many of the knights we see in the story were never in a real battle in their lives. IMO, and I've never been in a mid evil battle, if you make it threw like a dozen battles that you must be a pretty good fighter.

Yep. And let's not forget these are The Bloody Mummers too. No pulling their punches, they are depraved, bloodthirsty killers. And at the time she meets them they have all had time to gain a lot of experience fighting in Westeros. I certainly wouldn't call them mediocre.

[Lord Damian]

Let us talk again If she still stays in the North after this season ;)

Fair enough.

[Hippocras]

I've been gone a while...

surprised how many people think Brienne is "un"ed. We know from GRRM that she called out "sword", so she chose to serve LS, so pretty sure she lives. She looks like shit because her face is destroyed, and because she was forced to lie to lure Jamie (because of her vow to pledge her sword)... not because she is undead. She loves Jamie and hates lying so this duty makes her miserable.

Sansa at Greywater? Doubt that. Personally I think Rickon is more likely to show up there. But Brienne is an interesting idea as a POV character there. Might make sense. That said I am not sure anyone ever needs to go to Greywater. The books may well have us meet Howland Reed at Winterfell or elsewhere.

Sansa's story is very hard to pin down ATM but I do agree there is more pointing to her going North eventually than anywhere else. If LF turns out to be connected in some way to Braavos intrigue, he may be for or against the Iron Bank, so this will make him for or against Stannis now that the Iron Bank backs him. I find it interesting to speculate that LF's End Game may enormous in scope - no less than bringing down the Iron Bank by destroying their finances and planting himself pretty much as a superpower in the financial vacuum left behind. Or he may be simply a follower of the IB, attaching himself to whoever the IB backs because he knows they always win. Either way, Stannis getting IB backing is relevant to what moves LF will make with Sansa in my opinion.

Sansa of course is her own player, but currently there is no clear picture of who or what she would fight for. I do not doubt she loves her family but unless Rickon shows up she has no family to fight for unless you count Jeyne Westerling, Sweet Robin, or Edmure and child (or unless Jon becomes somehow within her realm of influence). That makes her a wild card whose moves will depend on what information she is able to obtain and what degree of personal freedom she has to make them.

If I had to guess right now:

1. The Harry marriage will never happen. The betrothal is all that is needed for political reasons. It's purpose is to unite the Vale (Harry and Robin factions) and solidify LF's control. The manipulations may result in the death of one or both of Robin and Harry, but not necessarily.

2. LF may still be plotting with the Tyrells. The Tyrells want Stannis dead, or at least Loras does. They also want Margery to be someone's queen and aren't picky whose. Currently she is Tommen's queen, and therefore the Tyrells are Bolton allies and Stannis enemies - but this could easily change. Stannis needs a Stark and may or may not get Rickon. If Selyse dies Stannis also needs a queen. LF may not know about Rickon and might be planning to offer Sansa as the Stark Stannis needs to control the North, or alternately may offer Sansa to Stannis's rival (Boltons). This set of factors makes an explosive situation that will result in LF's failure and death - probably by Sansa's orders at Winterfell. Food hoarding will be a key factor in how LF makes his move with Sansa in the North we learn in this chapter.

3. When the shit settles in the North, Sansa will have gained more insight into LF than anyone else, and after his death will largely control his assets - political and financial. I don't know whose queen she will become, but I think she will become a queen on the strength of those assets.

Edited May 2, 2015 by Hippocras

[ChillyPolly]

surprised how many people think Brienne is "un"ed. We know from GRRM that she called out "sword", so she chose to serve LS, so pretty sure she lives. She looks like shit because her face is destroyed, and because she was forced to lie to lure Jamie (because of her vow to pledge her sword)... not because she is undead. She loves Jamie and hates lying so this duty makes her miserable.

I think that's mostly just me arguing for UnBrienne.

Her shouting "sword" cuts both ways. Your theory is that it sets up her getting cut down and surviving. My theory is that it sets up yet another subplot about the Red God's revenants being driven by their oaths. The reasons for her looking like shit can cut both ways as well, obviously. Your theory is that her oath to kill Jaime is making her miserable; my theory is that her loss of humanity make her apparent intentions more plausible.

But it does not much matter for our purposes. Alive or undead, we have this whole unresolved subplot about her hunt for Sansa, nothing stops her from appearing at Sansa's tournament in a guise we won't necessarily recognize.

Nothing stops her from appearing in the guise of a man. Very little prevents her from appearing in the guise of "the Hound".

She was last seen in the vicinity of Sandor's old helm, and then using false tales of Sandor to deceive Jaime.

[Avlonnic]

@ Hippocras: Fascinating idea about LF trying to usurp the IB. That had not occurred to me. I rather thought he was in league with the IB; his family is from Braavos and he has been able to buy up debt the IB has been calling in on Westerosi houses.

I agree that the HtH betrothal is the goal, not the marriage itself. Harry can’t marry a Royce or Waynwood or a wealthy spice merchant’s daughter if he is betrothed. If he should end up in the Winged Knights, he could be locked in for another three years, which would be a tremendous amount of time for LF’s machinations to bear fruit.

@ ChillyPolly: Thanks for clearing up the origin of the UnBrienne. While I don’t agree that she is undead (we have a surfeit of undead already, I appreciate the idea. Also, you point out interesting ideas regarding Breanne’s ability to infiltrate the tourney. I would, however, pity anyone wearing the Hound’s helm after the Saltpans atrocities. I still shake my head at Lem Lemoncloak for wanting to keep it. Hmmm. Lem is tall; he too might pass with that helmet late at night, if we squint…

Brienne does not have to be undead to be emotionally ravaged by conflicting vows. This was Jaime’s lesson to her, and now she is sinking into the moral morass of No Win. There isn’t a 100% Noble Outcome here to be had. She can only choose what seems to be the lesser of atrocious evils and watch others pay. Even if she chose to kill herself to keep her honor, others (Pod, Hyle) would die. Poor Brienne: honor was all she really had that was hers alone. Now she must traverse the same Honor/Semi-Honor/No Honor quicksand as so many others in these stories: Jaime, Jon, Ned, Arya, Stannis, Dany, Tyrion, the TOJ Kingsguard, and so many others.

Edited May 2, 2015 by Avlonnic

[Hippocras]

I think it is definitely possible Brienne might appear at the tourney. Interestingly, both Brienne and Sandor have significant early scenes in the books (and show) that felt like set-up.

First the tourney in KL, where Sandor fights Gregor to save Loras's life. This after Loras defeated Robar Royce, who had defeated Lothor Brune.

Then the tourney at Renly's camp where Brienne defeats Loras (Tyrells again!!!) to become champion. Later, Loras kills Robar Royce because he was sticking up for Brienne's version of events.

I think it is fair to speculate that BOTH Brienne and the Hound could show up, and that the Tyrells are somehow relevant. Lothor Brune is already there and so is Robar's family. In other words, those earlier tournaments in the books were key to setting up the events in this one.

...In which case, who was Ser Hugh? Is anyone in this new chapter connected to Ser Hugh of the Vale, who was killed by Gregor? Why did GRRM let us know how kind Ned was to his family after Hugh's death? Someone who will be loyal now to Sansa as a result?

Edited May 3, 2015 by Hippocras

[Ghosts Lunch]

Having discussed the Bri/Jaimie 'meetup' before it was pointed out to me that why Bri may have met Jaime on her own, would the BWB let her travel there and back unescorted? In other words, she's still their prisoner, so perhaps they were just offstage and Bri took him directly to them?

Should have qualified, by RLers I mean LS and co

I think Brienne champions Jaime in the trial by combat and saves his lame ass. Then, Jaime gets free but Brienne is stuck with UnCat until she remembers that Cat swore to let her go should Brienne asks to avenge Renly. So, Brienne will leave UnCat and head North to make that attempt.

Perhaps, I reckon though that LS will make Jaimie fulfilly her oath, eg they will have found out through Shadrich Sansa is in the Vale, after fetching her out and reuniting them Brienne will perhaps head north and kill Stannis with Oathkeeper before dying herself

So, is it fair to say,

1- if Sansa is whisked away from the Vale, out from LF's nose by friendly forces, they will take her North, through Frey infested lands to:

A - Wintefell if seccured by Stark Friendly forces or Stannis?

B - Greywater Watch and the Crannogmen?

C - to be in the company of BWB + possibly Gruncle Bryden the Blackfish and maybe Jeyne Westerling?

D - White Harbor if news of Rickon alive and secure there with Davos?

2- If whisked away by unfriendly forces it can be to only take her to King's Landing ?

3- The Mountain clans take her to marry her to someone like they have to other noble women before ?

Unlike the show Sansa won't go to Winterfell, her ties are severed as articulated by Lady dying with her bones going north. She is disconnected from the Stark side of herself

They claim to know the end game, so what. They've changed the story and the players so much that I think HBO's end game and GRRM's endgame will be very different. Looking for spoilers from S5? From what I've seen, you won't find much that can really be counted on.

Agree with this part

Sansa (and LF) in Winterfell in the show is as big a divergence as Jaimie in Dorne IMO

Fortunately I think this Alayne chapter can help make sense of it

Eg Pod in Tavern = Ser Shadrich/Mad Mouse

Brienne = Mors Umber

Sansa = Jeyne Poole

Ramsay - Harry the Heir

Myranda = Myranda Royce

Roose Bolton = Lady Waynwood

In a sense it is quite an elegant merging, just depends on how they get Sansa to the south, maybe Pod will take her and Brienne will stay up north. Other side of the equation is how Theon gets to meet up with Yarasha again...

[Hippocras]

Who needs to get South? Why?

[Wouter]

Who needs to get South? Why?

I suppose the idea is that Sansa will remain in the south in the books, and that the show will return to the storyline of the books after the Ramsay situation has been concluded. So, Sansa would return south instead of staying with Boltons or hooking up with Stannis. Sort of like how (many?) people expect Jaime to return to KL after the Dorne diversion.

If that is indeed Ghost Lunch's reasoning, then I would agree with it.

In an interview, Cogman and D&D explained that given the choice, they felt introducing a Jeyne Poole or equivalent would be far less effective and convenient for the show than utilising the established actress and character they already had - greater emotional response and no need to get Sansa her own storyline with extra locations and actors to cast. But, just like the diversion at Crasters didn't change Bran and Jon's story in the end, I think the show would have a bit of a reset button after they are finished using Sansa in a Jeyne Poole/Manderly/Dustin conglomerate role.

[Wouter]

@ Hippocras: Fascinating idea about LF trying to usurp the IB. That had not occurred to me. I rather thought he was in league with the IB; his family is from Braavos and he has been able to buy up debt the IB has been calling in on Westerosi houses.

Hold on, it's also possible that LF is neither trying to usurp the Iron Bank nor in league with them. I think the IB is a really big organisation to bring down, even for LF, but at the same time he doesn't need to play into their hands except when it happens to suit him.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I suppose the idea is that Sansa will remain in the south in the books, and that the show will return to the storyline of the books after the Ramsay situation has been concluded. So, Sansa would return south instead of staying with Boltons or hooking up with Stannis. Sort of like how (many?) people expect Jaime to return to KL after the Dorne diversion.

I admit, I have been a long time believer that Sansa would remain in the South and not go back to Winterfell. But I doubt the show would have Sansa go to Winterfell then leave for the South again. The remaining story takes place in the North other than a battle at the Trident. We've already seen that KL becomes a shell in the visions of HotU. Unless Sansa heads back to the Vale (although I can't imagine for what other than food distribution), I don't see her leaving the North at this stage of the story on the show. Especially if this series will indeed be finished in 2 more seasons. (Rather the about face, heh?) :P

As for the books, I imagine Sansa will head North as well, perhaps with a food shipment? It will be sorely needed. I'm on the fence about the Riverlands. I don't see much more of the story taking place there. We will probably resolve LSH, BwB, Freys and Tullys early in Book 6 and that will be that. What else could happen there?

[Wouter]

I think Sansa has been given the necessary skill-set for court intrigue in the south, and that het arc is tied to LF (whom I think will operate in the south for the time being). She can arrange for food to go north without going that way herself, and since she has her own "support cast" in the Vale now, I tend to think she may stay there until Aegon and/or Dany come calling with demands and/or an army. Like Arya, Sansa is in training mode in the books now and the next major movement in the story would be Dany's (and/or Aegon's) invasion of Westeros; until those storylines meet I see her staying in the Vale, and Arya in Braavos.

The impression I got from the recent writers' interview (in Vulture, IIRC) was that Sansa is purely being dropped in the northern storyline (in place of Jeyne Poole, plus whatever amalgam of other characters involved) for TV reasons: having a main character so the stakes are high and there is an emotional response with viewers (instead of Jeyne who?), having main cast interaction, using an actress they have to pay anyway and avoiding a separate storyline in the Vale (extra cast/locations/expenses for a story that is maybe not as 'filmable' as Jeyne Poole's was).

However, if the books have Sansa stay in the south then the jetpack is always within easy reach. Brienne and Pod may bring Sansa back south, in record time (which would have Brienne choosing to save Sansa instead of pursuing revenge on Stannis, incidentally). I don't think Jaime is going to meet Doran anytime soon in the books for example, and he will probably return to KL in the show. I'm looking forward to find out how those two situations get resolved in the show, IMO the outcome may be quite telling for the books as well.

[Hippocras]

I suppose the idea is that Sansa will remain in the south in the books, and that the show will return to the storyline of the books after the Ramsay situation has been concluded. So, Sansa would return south instead of staying with Boltons or hooking up with Stannis. Sort of like how (many?) people expect Jaime to return to KL after the Dorne diversion.

If that is indeed Ghost Lunch's reasoning, then I would agree with it.

In an interview, Cogman and D&D explained that given the choice, they felt introducing a Jeyne Poole or equivalent would be far less effective and convenient for the show than utilising the established actress and character they already had - greater emotional response and no need to get Sansa her own storyline with extra locations and actors to cast. But, just like the diversion at Crasters didn't change Bran and Jon's story in the end, I think the show would have a bit of a reset button after they are finished using Sansa in a Jeyne Poole/Manderly/Dustin conglomerate role.

except there is actually no reason to believe that Sansa's book story remains in the South. In fact all clues point North. Edited May 3, 2015 by Hippocras

[Mithras]

But I doubt the show would have Sansa go to Winterfell then leave for the South again.

I would not expect much consistency from the show especially in regards to Sansa. Because when you think about it, for D&D, it looks like Sansa's original story is inferior to that of Jeyne Poole, who is in fact a side character in Jon's story.

In George's original draft, Arya and Cat were supposed to come to the Wall and prove difficulty for Jon about his vows. In the story published, Jeyne Poole as fArya did that.

[Wouter]

except there is actually no reason to believe that Sansa's book story remains in the South. In fact all clues point North.

Can you list those clues?

The main thing that points to Sansa staying south, in the books, is that she has her own supporting cast + LF in the Vale, that she is well-versed in southern politics, that she has permanently lost Lady (no doubt because such a potent protector would not go well together with her situation in KL, but Martin may have found a non-permanent way like he did for Nymeria if she was to return north) and that the snows make northward travel extremely difficult. A number of people looking for her, or connected to her, like Brienne, the Brotherhood without Banners, the Hound, Jaime, Cersei etc, are also in the south.

[HexMachina]

Can you list those clues?

The main thing that points to Sansa staying south, in the books, is that she has her own supporting cast + LF in the Vale, that she is well-versed in southern politics, that she has permanently lost Lady (no doubt because such a potent protector would not go well together with her situation in KL, but Martin may have found a non-permanent way like he did for Nymeria if she was to return north) and that the snows make northward travel extremely difficult. A number of people looking for her, or connected to her, like Brienne, the Brotherhood without Banners, the Hound, Jaime, Cersei etc, are also in the south.

How is Northern politics any different to Southern politics?

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I'm looking forward to find out how those two situations get resolved in the show, IMO the outcome may be quite telling for the books as well.

I agree. Jaime's isn't such a big deal since either through the Riverlands or Dorne, he would still have made his way back to KL. No biggie to switch those around. But having Sansa in the south vs. the north or vice versa is a biggie, I think. We'll see.

I would not expect much consistency from the show especially in regards to Sansa. Because when you think about it, for D&D, it looks like Sansa's original story is inferior to that of Jeyne Poole, who is in fact a side character in Jon's story.

I don't think the point was that her story was inferior to that of another character but more that her story was not as dramatic as another character's. And by having her assume this other story, she comes into contact with other well-known, established characters rather than a host of new, lesser ones.