[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 3

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I think Sansa has been given the necessary skill-set for court intrigue in the south, and that het arc is tied to LF (whom I think will operate in the south for the time being).

BTW, I agree, Sansa's skill set is politics. I think her final role will be doing just that, once all the dust settles. So I imagine her last chapter shows that. But there'll be little politics going on in KL after a point, or we wouldn't have been shown the destroyed throne room. It looks like things will cease or move. So sending Sansa to the south in book 6 or 7 makes little sense. Sending her south at the end of the story, does.

[Wouter]

How is Northern politics any different to Southern politics?

The north is more direct, less decorum and pageantry. See GreatJon Umber challenging Robb, then swearing undying loyalty after Robb's wolf took him down. Do you see that happen with southern lords? Sansa feels right at home with grand tourneys and with dancing, also something hardly done in the north.

Moreover, Sansa knows many of the "players" in the south. She knows who is who in the Vale, she knows LF, Margaery, Cersei, Olenna, Tommen, Myrcella,...

Does she know the Manderlys, Stannis, Roose Bolton, Lady Dustin etc? Far less well than she is versed in the situation south, is my guess.

And how many politicking will there need to be done in the north still? Either Stannis wins or Bolton wins and then pretty much game over. If Stannis wins, maybe there is some room to negotiate between northern lords and Stannis/Melisandre, but I suspect this will be and remain Jon's turf. With Rickon and Bran also still in play.

Contrast this to the south: who will look out for Stark interests when Aegon's rampage gathers steam and when Dany finally arrives (probably in the south, IMO)? Sansa is well placed to do so.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Wouter

[Hippocras]

Hold on, it's also possible that LF is neither trying to usurp the Iron Bank nor in league with them. I think the IB is a really big organisation to bring down, even for LF, but at the same time he doesn't need to play into their hands except when it happens to suit him.

Yes the are a big deal. but their finances are not bottomless. In essos the economy is being destroyed by Dany's anti-slavery campaign, and in Westeros by war: Wars LF has had a very big role in provoking. So far the IB's loans have not been paid back, and the debt is going bad. It is not at all clear that Stannis will ever be able to repay them, particularly if LF plans to exploit food scarcity. And Stannis is the only contender who might be held to repayment at all.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

Can you list those clues?

The main thing that points to Sansa staying south, in the books, is that she has her own supporting cast + LF in the Vale, that she is well-versed in southern politics, that she has permanently lost Lady (no doubt because such a potent protector would not go well together with her situation in KL, but Martin may have found a non-permanent way like he did for Nymeria if she was to return north) and that the snows make northward travel extremely difficult. A number of people looking for her, or connected to her, like Brienne, the Brotherhood without Banners, the Hound, Jaime, Cersei etc, are also in the south.

Sansa's supporting cast in the Vale simply means she is acquiring a base of influence there. It does not mean she is destined to stay. In fact the connections between the Vale and the North and Riverlands point to the Vale being tied into the story of Robb's former kingdom that we were already following so it is not separate. We have heard about Royce connections to the Starks and the Wall. We have heard about Redfort connections to the Boltons and Waynwood connections to the Freys.

Sansa made a snow Winterfell, not a snow Red Keep. Myranda mentioned Jon to Sansa, and discussed how Jon wanted to buy food. Then in this chapter we hear how LF is hoarding food.

Losing Lady means something, but not necessarily what you think it means. She never stopped being a Stark. Her ease with KL politics has relevance for her role far in the future, but does not imply she needs to stay or return South any time soon...in fact she may only go there in the epilogue of the final book. That doesn't make it irrelevant to the political moves she makes in her story in the North. Finally, the people looking for her can just as well look for her in the North.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Hippocras

[Wouter]

Sansa's supporting cast in the Vale simply means she is acquiring a base of influence there. It does not mean she is destined to stay. In fact the connections between the Vale and the North and Riverlands point to the Vale being tied into the story of Robb's former kingdom that we were already following so it is not separate. We have heard about Royce connections to the Starks and the Wall. We have heard about Redfort connections to the Boltons and Waynwood connections to the Freys.

Sansa made a snow Winterfell, not a snow Red Keep. Myranda mentioned Jon to Sansa, and discussed how Jon wanted to buy food. Then in this chapter we hear how LF is hoarding food.

Losing Lady means something, but not necessarily what you think it means. She never stopped being a Stark. Her ease with KL politics has relevance for her role far in the future, but does not imply she needs to stay or return South any time soon...in fact she may only go there in the epilogue of the final book. That doesn't make it irrelevant to the political moves she makes in her story in the North. Finally, the people looking for her can just as well look for her in the North.

The snow Winterfell ("I'm stronger within the walls of Winterfell") is a clue, but the only one that clearly points north. It does show that Sansa is still very much a Stark. The rest is ambiguous. Take the food for the north (nice catch coupling those by the way, I had forgotten Myranda pointed out that Jon was trying to acquire food): in the Vale, Sansa may be in a good position to make sure the food will go north eventually. It doesn't mean, in my interpretation, that she would accompany the food.

The weather in the north is bad in the books, very bad. People looking for her in the north will need to know exactly where she is, because a random search in the snows is not going to work.

Losing Lady permanentely is IMO, because it is difficult to rhyme a huge direwolf with a southern court. In the north, it will be accepted, but likely not in the south. I otherwise agree that Sansa is and remains a Stark.

[LongRider]

If book Sansa makes it back to WF, why should she leave her home? Also, is she's so good at politics, I would think that WF and the North could her skills and her connections in the Vale. With fAgeon and Dany on the horizon, WF/North could use a politician.

As for Lady bones, if Sansa goes to visit Lady's grave in the litchard in WF, that might just be a very powerful moment for her. Perhaps her warg powers will get a recharge.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

If book Sansa makes it back to WF, why should she leave her home?

For the same reason she left the first time: she wants something more. Only this time she'll have her eyes open and shape her own destiny. Her hard learned lessons would be wasted if she remained in the North.

[LongRider]

For the same reason she left the first time: she wants something more. Only this time she'll have her eyes open and shape her own destiny. Her hard learned lessons would be wasted if she remained in the North.

I don't see any reason why 'shaping her own destiny' has to take place in the South tho. Plenty of 'destiny shaping' opportunities in WF and the North I should think.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I don't see any reason why 'shaping her own destiny' has to take place in the South tho. Plenty of 'destiny shaping' opportunities in WF and the North I should think.

I would be very surprised if all the Starks returned to WF and remained there. Once either boy returns, there's not much left for Sansa to do, in the long run. In any case, we shall see.

[Mithras]

Davos will be our next POV at Winterfell as the regent of Rickon after the Boltons are wiped out. No room for Sansa. And as Jon suspected, giants will camp in the ruins of Winterfell, although they will be friendly to Rickon.

Mance gave her a fond smile. “It’s a wise woman I’ve found. A true queen.” He turned back to Jon. “Go back and tell them to open their gate and let us pass. If they do, I will give them the horn, and the Wall will stand until the end of days.”

Open the gate and let them pass. Easy to say, but what must follow? Giants camping in the ruins of Winterfell? Cannibals in the wolfswood, chariots sweeping across the barrowlands, free folk stealing the daughters of shipwrights and silversmiths from White Harbor and fishwives off the Stony Shore?

Note that we already had the cannibals in the wolfswood but they were at Stannis army.

The giants will also be used in repairing Winterfell just as Brandon the Builder used them in raising Winterfell.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Mithras

[Wouter]

If book Sansa makes it back to WF, why should she leave her home? Also, is she's so good at politics, I would think that WF and the North could her skills and her connections in the Vale. With fAgeon and Dany on the horizon, WF/North could use a politician.

As for Lady bones, if Sansa goes to visit Lady's grave in the litchard in WF, that might just be a very powerful moment for her. Perhaps her warg powers will get a recharge.

It's very questionable if book-Sansa would make it to Winterfell before the end of the snows; Stannis has great difficulty getting there, and even leaving the Vale is difficult now. Why would she go there before Rickon surfaces? And after he does resurface, what would be left for her to do with the north under the control of Stannis and/or Jon and/or Stark loyalists?

As for show-Sansa, she could leave if she wants to escape the Boltons and simultaneously does not wish to meet Stannis right now (or it may just look like Stannis is losing). If Brienne is doing the rescuing, she may not be partial to joining Stannis.

[Mithras]

Show-Sansa might be convinced to believe that Stannis slew Renly with sorcery as Brienne claimed. Theon OTOH will have little reason to get caught by Stannis. So, perhaps they might try to flee to Braavos. Or they might try to reach Wall and be require guest right from Jon (but in that case, they will surely find the Wall in turmoil after Jon's assassination which might still lead to an escape to Braavos).

[LongRider]

Who says she will go to WF before Rickon, if indeed he does come back into the story? As for her ability to leave the Vale, well...

We have learned in the WOW chapter that travel in the Vale isn't that difficult as folks from all parts of the Vale, including Gulltown and the Sisters are there. If she can make to Gulltown she can get on a ship and leave the Vale.

I for one don't give two spits about the show or about show!Sansa.

[Hippocras]

It's very questionable if book-Sansa would make it to Winterfell before the end of the snows; Stannis has great difficulty getting there, and even leaving the Vale is difficult now. Why would she go there before Rickon surfaces? And after he does resurface, what would be left for her to do with the north under the control of Stannis and/or Jon and/or Stark loyalists?

As for show-Sansa, she could leave if she wants to escape the Boltons and simultaneously does not wish to meet Stannis right now (or it may just look like Stannis is losing). If Brienne is doing the rescuing, she may not be partial to joining Stannis.

First, snow storms don't last forever. Yes it is cold, but if Sansa went to the North it would likely still be as LF's protege. So need to think in terms of what moves LF has in mind. LF is connected to Braavos. Braavos links in the story otherwise are Arya(Northern) and the IB(backing Stannis in the North). Sansa with LF would travel by water and might take the White Knife nearly all the way to Winterfell. It is a fast river, probably connected to the Winterfell hot spring so a good chance it never freezes.

LF may not know about Rickon, so not sure why Rickon matters here. If LF wants to play his Stark card with some faction in the North (probably Bolton), it is quite likely in fact that Rickon WILL appear after Sansa and throw a wrench in his plans. Sansa would be a rival Stark, on the other side of a war from Rickon, whoever gets their hands on Rickon. So what is left for Sansa to do? Not play along with LF, and refuse to fight her brother for Winterfell.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Hippocras

[Wouter]

I don't see what LF would hope to accomplish in such a scenario. It is not the time to move Vale armies to the north; ask Stannis about that. And LF first needs to solidify his power base in the Vale, he is far yet from being able to direct armies. Even if he could, the first goal would probably be too take the Riverlands, rather than the north (Sansa is a Tully, too, and they were part of Robb's kingdom. LF's theoretical castle and wardenship are there, as are the Freys).

And if he goes north without an army - what could he do but join Manderly and thus Stannis? Not much IMO. And Stannis as king is bad business for LF, he said as much in AGOT.

[Colonel Green]

The north is more direct, less decorum and pageantry. See GreatJon Umber challenging Robb, then swearing undying loyalty after Robb's wolf took him down. Do you see that happen with southern lords? Sansa feels right at home with grand tourneys and with dancing, also something hardly done in the north.

I don't know about pageantry, but I would have thought that the idea of the North as this place where everything is "more direct" should have been well and truly killed by ADWD. And I don't think dancing is any less common in the north than in the south.

I would be very surprised if all the Starks returned to WF and remained there. Once either boy returns, there's not much left for Sansa to do, in the long run.

Nobody runs a whole region singlehandedly. Beyond which, reuniting with her family is the thing she wants more than anything (or did, back when she thought there were people to reunite with).

[Ser Pounce FTW]

Davos will be our next POV at Winterfell as the regent of Rickon after the Boltons are wiped out. No room for Sansa. And as Jon suspected, giants will camp in the ruins of Winterfell, although they will be friendly to Rickon.

If LF wants to play his Stark card with some faction in the North (probably Bolton), it is quite likely in fact that Rickon WILL appear after Sansa and throw a wrench in his plans. Sansa would be a rival Stark, on the other side of a war from Rickon, whoever gets their hands on Rickon. So what is left for Sansa to do? Not play along with LF, and refuse to fight her brother for Winterfell.

Exactly! It's as I predicted: the Stark children will be manipulated into the Dance of the Wolves for a time. I agree Sansa will never agree to it once she realizes what is going on but I predict it will exist for a while.

Nobody runs a whole region singlehandedly. Beyond which, reuniting with her family is the thing she wants more than anything (or did, back when she thought there were people to reunite with).

That's ridiculous. Of course they do. As far as we've seen, there's only 1 Stark that's ruled the North. But of course we can expect things to be different for Sansa. :rolleyes: I do believe I've already stated this but I'll say it again. It seems very likely the remaining Starks will have a reunion but it is highly unlikely they'll all be living together at Winterfell like one big Walton family on Walton mountain. And if you're implying that the remaining Starks will be on some sort of Winterfell council, we don't see that in the story. Ned is Lord and he gets council from his maester and his wife, not his brother. After all, there's a reason Benjen's at the Wall. And this scenario is what we see throughout the kingdoms. There's no family rule anywhere and the story doesn't seem to be setting that up here. The seeds of a fight for Winterfell are already being sown, even if I assume it will be a rather short struggle.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Ser Pounce FTW

[Wouter]

I don't know about pageantry, but I would have thought that the idea of the North as this place where everything is "more direct" should have been well and truly killed by ADWD. And I don't think dancing is any less common in the north than in the south.

How do you see Sansa's arc continuing? You think she will leave the Vale soon, to go north? With or without LF?

[Hippocras]

I don't see what LF would hope to accomplish in such a scenario. It is not the time to move Vale armies to the north; ask Stannis about that. And LF first needs to solidify his power base in the Vale, he is far yet from being able to direct armies. Even if he could, the first goal would probably be too take the Riverlands, rather than the north (Sansa is a Tully, too, and they were part of Robb's kingdom. LF's theoretical castle and wardenship are there, as are the Freys).

And if he goes north without an army - what could he do but join Manderly and thus Stannis? Not much IMO. And Stannis as king is bad business for LF, he said as much in AGOT.

LF has a Stark. That is the thing all factions fighting for the North need. He also controls food supplies. He does not need to bring an army anywhere, he just needs to offer Sansa to whichever faction he wants to see win.

[Maia]

Personally, I think that there would be no need for Sansa to go north in the books, as the North is ripe for being overrun by the Others and it's people are going to flee south and will need food. This struggle over who is going to hold Winterfell is ultimately as pointless as the War of Five Kings. In the show, the conflation of plotlines just gives Sansa, Jaime and Brienne more to do, without the need for extra actors, sets, etc. that their own plot-lines would have required. So, yea, in the show Sansa will return south, but in the books she'll likely only go north towards the end when the Spring returns, if at all. IMHO, YMMV.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Maia