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[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 3


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So, regardless of what pairings you want to happen, I don't see how you can argue for Tyrion/Sansa as a potentially positive development for Sansa (more political power and fun court life) and GRRM's endgame without dissecting and exploring who he has become. If you said Tyrion/Sansa will happen and they will both be more miserable then ever, I would agree that is definitely possible! But the idea that they will be partners in power like "Alysanne and Jaeharys" and that he will "yearn for her love", is something I disagree with. Not that is a bad opinion, it isn't, I just disagree.

The reason the rape is important isn't because I think someone will catch him and geld him, but because I believe if he was alone with Sansa he might try to rape her. And I don't see how they could have any semblance of a happy marriage if he rapes her. [...]

So I suppose, I just want to know how these character development effect your understanding/belief in Tyrion/Sansa as a political team/potentially successful marriage.

People tend to view the potential continuation of the Tyrion/Sansa marriage in black or white terms:

either both would be as miserable as they were during the brief time they were married in KL, or they would suddenly come to marry for love. There are other possibilities, though.

I'm thinking more in the line of a classic Westerosi arranged marriage; both families (Dany for Tyrion and Jon or Bran for Sansa, IMO - though Sansa could negotiate for herself, much like Dany did with Hizdahr) come to some sort of agreement that it would be in their interests for the marriage to continue. This would be different from the actual marriage because that was an entirely one-way arrangement where the Lannisters forced Sansa to marry without even informing her or her family beforehand, with the whole thing designed to be a Lannister powergrab in Winterfell. Presumably, an arranged marriage would have benefits of some form for the Starks/the north (or Riverlands and Vale, even) as well.

I also think that Sansa would have acted differently in KL if she didn't have Dontos' escape plan. She could afford to keep Tyrion at a safe distance because it was only for a few weeks. If she had seen no escape, I suspect she would have seriously considered to either kill herself or to make an attempt to make the best of it while influencing Tyrion as much as she could to go against his own family.

As for Tyrion raping Sansa; if the marriage is renewed/confirmed, presumably it would not be to go back to the farce that it was in the first place; it seems unlikely to me that Tyrion would accept a continued marriage without sex, better to annul the whole thing then. If Tyrion can get sex the normal way, it would seem unlikely that he would jeopardise that with rape (even in the sense of Robert raping Cersei).

As you say, we don't know what the author will write. That goes for Tyrion's future state of mind as well. I do note that the show has been whitewashing him though - one effect of which is that his relationship with Sansa is quite a bit better on the show - and one possible reason for that is to not upset the TV audience if he would end up triumphant in the end.

I also note that the author has some pretty f*cked up marriages turn into relative successes: Dany and Drogo is an example from the books (considering it started with him buying and then raping Dany) and from the world book, the marriage between Orys Baratheon and the daughter of the last Storm King was striking. The last one started the Baratheon line as we know it in ASOIAF; I wonder how Argella felt about being married to the man who succesfully invaded her lands, who killed her father and who took her captive.

Allthough the Dany/Hizdahr marriage was not succesfull in the end, it is a good example of an arranged marriage entered for mutual gain though Dany did not want to marry him (and probably vice-versa). It is a bit different though, because Dany negotiated for her own hand and she also had more power in the marriage than Hizdahr did.

Both in show and books, Sansa has shown a willingness to enter in arranged marriages at the behest of LF. The chapter being discussed sees her playing alone with LF's scheme. So the concept of marriage for political gain is not lost on her.

:agree: I agree with this completely! I know I will sound redundant if I write this, but no one wants to take Sansa south in the story except Shadrich so he can collect on the bounty on her head. Sansa wants to go North. LF want her to go North (with HtH and an army from the Vale). Brienne wants to bring her to family (that means North). Jaime would bring her as far from KL as possible. Ned died wanting his daughters to go back North.

Could Shadrich bring her south again? I guess he could, yes. But I see her going north because that is where her power originates (with loyal vassal lords and her brothers) since if she is in the North being a Stark will protect her, anywhere else in the kingdom and being a Stark/Tyrion's wife/accused of regicide will be a one-way trip to the gallows. And the North is where all the major characters appear to be headed for the final conflicts.

I agree with Colonel Green that book-Sansa will likely do her politicking in the Vale; it's the place where she's being "trained" (much like Bran and Arya at their respective places) and where she has her own supporting cast of characters. When Dany/Tyrion arrive in Westeros, things will be shaken up and who knows how things will progress. Well, Martin hopefully, and probably D&D and Cogman plus Hill, but not us.

I think Sansa may go back to KL at some point (if it is still standing then), but by that time Cersei would probably have been long removed from power.

Dany had a dream in ASOS that IMO indicates she will fight the Others, possibly as far south as the Trident:

That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper's rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened.

Though Dany is thinking about Robert, his host was obviously not armored in ice => this indicates Others.

If Dany may possibly fight the Others in the Riverlands, then not everyone has to assemble in the north in order to impact that fight.

Edited by Wouter
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Have they, though? GRRM went to the trouble of setting out an annulment procedure, which seems like an odd thing to do unless that procedure was going to be used at some point. Also, Tywin warned Tyrion back in ASOS that an unconsummated marriage could be annulled by the High Septon, and Tyrion retorted that the High Septon was a trained seal who barked on command, something that's no longer true.

Did GRRM really set out the annulment procedure in the books? IIRC it was stated that only the High Septon could overturn it (with no exact procedure mentioned?), which he later expanded a bit upon in an SSM (outside the books!).

The problem with the present High Septon is that he is a loose cannon and it would be an enormous risk for Sansa to reveal her location or come to ask in person. And future High Septons (or the present one, if he gets "tamed") would likely have to do Dany's bidding to survive - I assume she will take the power in KL, sooner or later (though probably after a brief stint by Aegon in charge).

So, IMO things fall back on the marriage politics Dany will follow. Marriages of daughters or lord paramounts and of a dragonrider and advisor of her own (I'm assuming this, too) will be her business, as this is a political act in Westeros. If she does not want the marriage to continue, it won't. If she does want it to continue, it probably will. This goes doubly so if Tyrion would be Aerys' bastard (or would be believed to be by Dany): then it becomes a matter of survival for the Targaryen family, Tyrion could potentially be her heir then.

Also, in the show, Sansa's marriage to Tyrion was pretty much handwaved; they changed the rules so that non-consummation voids a marriage to enable the Ramsay/Sansa marriage to happen in the show. Even though that was done to graft Sansa on to Jeyne's plot, I wonder if Littlefinger will handwave the marriage similarly in the books, maybe not by securing an annulment, but by faking Tyrion's death.

In the show, Sansa and Tyrion had a significantly better relationship though (even during the marriage, Tyrion could make her laugh; he also courteously warned her beforehand of his father's orders, and on the show it was an order, not a strong suggestion). Moreover, being married to Tyrion was a dream compared to her present marriage, which makes Tyrion look better in retrospect.

There is also a side effect of the marriage to Ramsay: no longer a virgin, Sansa can't prove anymore that the marriage with Tyrion was not consummated. And it was set aside by LF and Boltons, but that doesn't mean others would agree that this was done lawfully (given the ceremony was done only for Old Gods, I doubt the High Septon would agree and Tyrion may not agree either). If LF's position gets challenged in the show, Sansa may have a hard time defending the POV that non-consummated means non-existant.

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Did GRRM really set out the annulment procedure in the books? IIRC it was stated that only the High Septon could overturn it (with no exact procedure mentioned?), which he later expanded a bit upon in an SSM (outside the books!).

This is the only thing we know for sure on the subject from the books:

  • A marriage that has not been consumated can be set aside by the High Septon or a Council of Faith (UK hardcover of A Storm of Swords; 362)

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/Concordance/Section/2.4./

Pretty vage and non-descript. What exactly is a Council of Faith? Is it a gathering of the Most Devout or are regular septons enough? If the latter is the right interpretation, LF will have no problem in securing an annulment. He just has to find a couple of corrupt Septons or threaten a couple of faithful ones and he'll have the annulment in no time.

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You do realize, that your response just validates what I was trying to say? "Large swathes of character arc," "biggest most blatant passages of foreshadowing " and "major themes" are subjective (based on your interpretation) not objective and can't be used to claim what will or won't happen.

Not really, saying Jaime has a character arc concerning his honour which Sansa has come to represent isn't really subjective anymore than saying the sky is up, it's what is. As with Brienne swearing her oath to Catelyn, Tyrion being subjective to manipulations of the young and beautiful, and Sansa being young, beautiful and becoming manipulative (as per this chapter).

Bran's dream is one of the largest pieces of foreshadowing in the story, fair enough the interpretation can be subject to opinion, that the man armoured like the sun might not be the character described elsewhere as armoured like the sun is possible, as it is the character with the face like a hound might not be the character called the hound that wore the helmet with the face of a hound. I'm running with the percentages on that one.

The original point, that there is plenty more pointing to the South than North for Sansa is not relying on the nitty gritty detailed predictions, but large portions of existing character arc and major pieces of foreshadowing.

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Chrisdaw, the part of your predictions where you assume that Dany will get booted out of KL after she defeats Aegon, with Cersei somehow coming back, is the one where I have difficulties. Sure, there are indications that Dany will not be popular but she will likely have loyal followers like the core Unsullied. I don't see her getting Rhaenyra'ed out of KL; if she takes the throne I guess no one will take it by force from her afterwards; at most she may decide to step aside (for Jon, say).

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Not really, saying Jaime has a character arc concerning his honour which Sansa has come to represent isn't really subjective anymore than saying the sky is up, it's what is. As with Brienne swearing her oath to Catelyn, Tyrion being subjective to manipulations of the young and beautiful, and Sansa being young, beautiful and becoming manipulative (as per this chapter).

Bran's dream is one of the largest pieces of foreshadowing in the story, fair enough the interpretation can be subject to opinion, that the man armoured like the sun might not be the character described elsewhere as armoured like the sun is possible, as it is the character with the face like a hound might not be the character called the hound that wore the helmet with the face of a hound. I'm running with the percentages on that one.

The original point, that there is plenty more pointing to the South than North for Sansa is not relying on the nitty gritty detailed predictions, but large portions of existing character arc and major pieces of foreshadowing.

Once again, you haven't disproved my point. You are choosing to view a few pieces of the story out of context and then you omit other quotes from the text/possible character arcs/possible outcomes that disagree with your conclusions. I have no problem with you believing what you want to believe, as I have said repeatedly, but then you draw detailed timelines and ascribe characters's futures with a certainty that is unfounded.

Yes, Jaime and Brienne's arcs are currently about honor and vow keeping. (Like Sansa's is currently about using the Vale to go North). However if Jaime and Brienne are successful in finding her they have NO stated reason/motivation in the text to bring her to KL. As far as they know, Sansa has a price on her head and if she shows up in KL she will die! A roadtrip to KL would be doing the opposite of helping her and it would be dishonorable!

Brienne wants to protect her and reunite her with her family, that means to fulfill her vow she'll bring Sansa North. Jaime knows Cersei will try to kill Sansa, so if he want's to protect her he'll bring her as far from KL as possible. As he said about the girls, "… if the gods are good, she’ll forget she was a Stark. She’ll wed some burly blacksmith or fat-faced innkeep, fill his house with children, and never need to fear that some knight might come along to smash their heads against a wall. Bringing her South directly contradicts their character arcs/motivations. There is no evidence either would ever consider bringing her South.

As far Bran's vision, you yourself posted last page that Brienne probably didn't even exist then. And I have seen dozens of posts trying to analyze this vision and they all have many different interpretations. It is impossible to say which is true at this point. And the vision could have changed/evolved over time if GRRM even ever intended it to unfold the way you are predicting. Since, as of GoT, Brienne may not have been invented yet and Sansa was still getting set up to marry Joffrey and get killed.

And finally you are ignoring other character's arcs: LF's arc (Harrenhall, the Vale, maybe Winterfell and Beyond), Sansa's desire since ACoK (to get home/the North), and you're reinventing Tyrion's arc to fit you're theory (he's still in Essos, we don't know when/where he will return or what he will want or how his personality will have changed).

As I said before: you are at perfect liberty to argue for what you believe, it's still just an opinion. Especially when you're extrapolating detailed sequences of events and predicting characters' future choices (which directly contradict their current choices) using "character arc" and "major themes" without providing any direct quotes from any of the 5 books as support.

I am actually interested in your argument (which is why we've been going back and forth for three pages), but until you provide quotes from the text or respond the questions/textual quotes myself and others have put forward to counter your claims, I really don't see how we can have a discussion over the text.

Edited by AllOfTheHours
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Once again, you haven't disproved my point. You are choosing to view a few pieces of the story out of context and then you omit other quotes from the text/possible character arcs/possible outcomes that disagree with your conclusions.

Oh please do explain what I have represented out of context and ignored.

And can you explain what you actually mean when you refer to LF's character arc?

Edited by chrisdaw
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Oh please do explain what I have represented out of context and ignored.

And can you explain what you actually mean when you refer to LF's character arc?

In my last post I talked specifically about how you said Jaime and Brienne are about honor, while ignoring what they actually vowed/what their goals are. And Tyrion, you said he will stay married to Sansa without exploring his feelings for Tysha, his newfound acceptance of raping unwilling women, and the fact that we don't know when he will return/where Sansa will be at that time. But the point being we apparently have different standards for evidence. I have no interest in arguing with you about what you believe. I just don't think anyone can know or claim to know exactly what will happen next (unless they are GRRM) and I won't be convinced of a theory without direct quotes from the text.

As for LF's character arc, it is made up of lots of different subplots and complex (or hidden) motivations. One of them is his accumulation of territory. A big point is made about this in the show, so I went back to the books to review the way this shows up in the text. As a ward in Riverrun, he knew the heir to part of the Fingers would never be respected/considered good enough to marry a daughter of the LP of the Riverlands. Through his own skill and Lysa's interference he was able to raise to Master of Coin. However, he was still of lesser status than the other lords around him (the Baratheons, Starks, and Lannisters) and so, like Varys, he was kept around for his usefulness although he was treated with contempt and distrust (by Ned especially in GoT and by several of the Lannisters who have casually discussed killing him out of hand).

Then in ACOK, Tyrion hatches the plot to try and discern which of his fellow council members are reporting to Cersei (LF, Pycelle, Varys). In doing this he offers LF Harrenhall:

"So," Lord Petyr continued after a pause, utterly unabashed, "what's in your pot for me?"

"Harrenhal."
It was interesting to watch his face. Lord Petyr's father had been the smallest of small lords, his grandfather a landless hedge knight; by birth, he held no more than a few stony acres on the windswept shore of the Fingers. Harrenhal was one of the richest plums in the Seven Kingdoms, its lands broad and rich and fertile, its great castle as formidable as any in the realm . . . and so large as to dwarf Riverrun, where Petyr Baelish had been fostered by House Tully, only to be brusquely expelled when he dared raise his sights to Lord Hoster's daughter.
Littlefinger took a moment to adjust the drape of his cape, but Tyrion had seen the flash of hunger in those sly cat's eyes. I have him, he knew.
I always found "I have him, he knew" to one of the most interesting lines in the series as it pertains to LF. Tyrion and LF are both exceedingly intelligent and excellent at reading people, so I give this line significant weight. Especially with the way it reflects LF's own advice to Sansa about how to be a manipulator, below:

Lord Petyr loosened a seed with the point of his dagger. "You must miss your father terribly, I know. Lord Eddard was a brave man, honest and loyal... but quite a hopeless player." He brought the seed to his mouth with the knife. "In King's Landing, there are two sorts of people. The players and the pieces."

"And was I a piece?" She dreaded the answer.

"Yes, but don't let that trouble you. You're still half a child. Every man's a piece to start with, and every maid as well. Even some who think they are players." He ate another seed. "Cersei, for one. She thinks herself sly, but in truth she is utterly predicatable. Her strength rests on her beauty, birth, and riches. Only the first of those is truly her own, and will soon desert her. I pity her then. She wants power, but has no notion what to do with it when she gets it. Everyone wants something, Alayne. And when you know what a man wants you know who he is, and how to move him."

Next we see LF become Lord of Harrenhal married to Lady Lysa Arryn - daughter of Riverrun and Mistress of the Vale - with Sansa - the apparent heiress to Winterfell - conveniently at his side. And he has stated - although we can't know if he is being entirely truthful - that he wants to marry Sansa to HtH so he can reveal her and use the untouched army of the Vale to reclaim Winterfell:

Her eyes widened. "He is not Lady Waynwood's heir. He's Robert's heir. If Robert were to die . . ."

Petyr arched an eyebrow. "When Robert dies. Our poor brave Sweetrobin is such a sickly boy, it is only a matter of time. When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon . . . and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out with your long auburn hair, clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back . . . why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa . . . Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell. That's worth another kiss now, don't you think?"
LF knows true legitimacy (in the eyes of the royal family and the LPs) comes from birth, titles, land, and castles. And although he will never have the "birth" element, he has gone about collecting titles, land, castles, and women with high birth (Lysa, Sansa).
I won't make conclusive statements about what all of this means until all the books are out and I can reread knowing for sure what everything was leading too. However, LF now has authority in the Riverlands (through Harrenhal), in the Vale (as Lord Protector), and he has a Stark to help him take the North/Winterfell. I find this all very interesting because it parallels the marriage alliance Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully thought up to unite the Riverlands, Vale, and North which helped secure the entire Northern half of the country and win Robert's Rebellion. If LF plays his cards right, he will be (if he isn't already) one of the most powerful lords in the country with the only fresh army in Westeros, therefore and an amazing ally or a terrible threat to any prospective King or Queen.
Edit: Added more quotes to support my thinking and a new last sentence when I got home from work .
Edited by AllOfTheHours
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Littlefinger's hold on the Vale in the books is very, very tenuous. He actually needs to get the armies and their commanders into the field, away from him and SANSA. What happened on the show is not even really applicable here. Littlefinger wants her close at all times and I have a huge gut feeling that the HTH marriage is not gonna happen. Where this chapter leaves off is where SweetRobin is seeing Alayne (Sansa) dancing with Harry the Heir and it seems inevitable that he is going to make a scene of some kind. He may even die of an anurism right there, thus, making Harry the Lord of the Vale. It is worth note that Harry does not like Littlefinger and Baelish could find himself kicked out on his ass at any moment once that happens. Time is not on LF's side. I cannot wait for TWOW so as to see what is in store for him., Sansa and SweetRobin.


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Littlefinger's hold on the Vale in the books is very, very tenuous. He actually needs to get the armies and their commanders into the field, away from him and SANSA. What happened on the show is not even really applicable here. Littlefinger wants her close at all times and I have a huge gut feeling that the HTH marriage is not gonna happen. Where this chapter leaves off is where SweetRobin is seeing Alayne (Sansa) dancing with Harry the Heir and it seems inevitable that he is going to make a scene of some kind. He may even die of an anurism right there, thus, making Harry the Lord of the Vale. It is worth note that Harry does not like Littlefinger and Baelish could find himself kicked out on his ass at any moment once that happens. Time is not on LF's side. I cannot wait for TWOW so as to see what is in store for him., Sansa and SweetRobin.

He doesn't like LF because LF brokered a marriage to a bastard. If he discovers Sansa's true identity or gets over the bastard thing as he seems to be doing at the end of the chapter, then his animosity towards LF need not continue. Waynwood might be bad mouthing him, but that's pretty bitter on her behalf as it would appear that LF bought up her debts and then likely forgave them in return for the marriage agreement, win win I should think.

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In my last post I talked specifically...

Your last post was like this one, all over the place. I'll break it down as simply as possible. The first assertions made that you claim are subjective are below.

Sansa has come to represent honour to Jaime, honour is thematically explored through JAime's character. Brienne has been labouring in servitude of her oath to Catelyn to protect Sansa for more than half her chapters. Sandor invades Sansa's romantic thoughts in a unique way. Cersei was a great antagonising force towards Sansa. Tyrion is susceptible to the manipulations of young beautiful women who are capable of filling his need for love. Sansa and Tyrion are married.

It is on these that I relied upon in the first instance(s) in reply to your assertion that there is nothing in the South for Sansa. You disagree with that assertion, ok, but you also claim what I've based the assertion on to be subjective. I disagree, to attempt to paint the above as something other what is written is to just be wrong. So how am I wrong?

I disagree what you've recounted as having happened to LF amounts to a character arc, he's the same character in Dance as he was in AGOT, he has just amassed some more power.

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He doesn't like LF because LF brokered a marriage to a bastard. If he discovers Sansa's true identity or gets over the bastard thing as he seems to be doing at the end of the chapter, then his animosity towards LF need not continue. Waynwood might be bad mouthing him, but that's pretty bitter on her behalf as it would appear that LF bought up her debts and then likely forgave them in return for the marriage agreement, win win I should think.

That is part of if I am sure but the fact that Littlefinger's reputation before the proposed betrothal happened is pretty shammy in the Vale. Everyone there knows he is the foremost brothel owner in Westeros and was a lick spittle - upjumped lord by the Lannisters creation and they are despised in the Vale. No, Littlefinger's hold in the Vale is not strong. Also, Sansa, when revealed or if revealed in the Vale will have consequences as well as her marriage status to Tyrion. This proposed wedding between Sansa (Alayne) and Harold Hardying (Harry the Heir) is not so cut and dry.

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That is part of if I am sure but the fact that Littlefinger's reputation before the proposed betrothal happened is pretty shammy in the Vale. Everyone there knows he is the foremost brothel owner in Westeros and was a lick spittle - upjumped lord by the Lannisters creation and they are despised in the Vale. No, Littlefinger's hold in the Vale is not strong. Also, Sansa, when revealed or if revealed in the Vale will have consequences as well as her marriage status to Tyrion. This proposed wedding between Sansa (Alayne) and Harold Hardying (Harry the Heir) is not so cut and dry.

He might be upjumped, but at this point Alayne is heir to Harrenhall, and there is no question that LF is quite rich, so in the end, every noble house starts somewhere.

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He might be upjumped, but at this point Alayne is heir to Harrenhall, and there is no question that LF is quite rich, so in the end, every noble house starts somewhere.

Well, then Harry should be very happy about the match and not so upset about it. Well, I know and you probably have a good hunch too that H T H is an Asshole. Sansa/Alayne could sense that right away. He is good looking and she notices that too but still an asshole. Atleast he is not Ramsay Bolton but I seriously doubt this marriage will ever happen. Regarding Littleinger, he is on thin ice in the Vale I think but how do you think his "Tenure" as Lord Protector will last and how will it end. I mean, once SweetRobin dies, Harry owns the Vale and does not owe debts to Littlefinger but he would owe Harry a Dowery. Waynewood may owe debts to LF but Harry does not.

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Well, then Harry should be very happy about the match and not so upset about it. Well, I know and you probably have a good hunch too that H T H is an Asshole. Sansa/Alayne could sense that right away. He is good looking and she notices that too but still an asshole. Atleast he is not Ramsay Bolton but I seriously doubt this marriage will ever happen. Regarding Littleinger, he is on thin ice in the Vale I think but how do you think his "Tenure" as Lord Protector will last and how will it end. I mean, once SweetRobin dies, Harry owns the Vale and does not owe debts to Littlefinger but he would owe Harry a Dowery. Waynewood may owe debts to LF but Harry does not.

He has worked many lords onto his side, including a few influential ones and is worming away at the Lords Declarant. I don't see LF getting out of the Vale alive because I see at least one of his plans falling apart that ends with Sansa and Co turning against him.

Yes, Harry is an asshole, but well, are you a woman or gay? Because you might be underestimating the allure of the sexy young woman Sansa portrayed in this chapter.

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  • 2 weeks later...

When I first read this chapter I was bored by it.  But after I saw what happened to her character in the show (and how poorly it went off) I went back and read it and really enjoyed it.  After reading the history of the Vale in TWOIAF I think Littlefinger may play different sides against each other, and gain power in their disunity. 

 

I think after a few more chapters in the Vale, Sansa will assume her Ladyship at Winterfell briefly, hosting a banquet for all northern houses to formally solidify her Ladyship and ties to the North.  Meanwhile things go bad for Cersei and Aegon takes over King's Landing.  Nobody remains in KL that can torment Sansa so she travels to KL to bend the knee to the new king.  Aegon is bethroned to Arianne but is enchanted by Lady Stark's beauty and she plays the game of thrones to become queen, somehow getting rid of Arianne.  In this she plots against the Tyrells (Margery also plans to rid of Arianne).  But as I am thinking about this I realize there really isn't enough time for all of this plotting.  If there really will only be 7 books, Dany will arrive in Westeros before the end of TWOW.  I think there must be more, at least 8 if not 9.  If the events of the first book of the original trilogy are AGOT-ASOS and AFFC/ADWD is largely made up of filler that was to be the 5-year gap between books 1 and 2, then it just seems very unlikely that only two books will cover acts two and three of the series (act 2 being when Dany reaches Westeros and act 3 is the finale with the Others).  After so much expanding there's no way the rest of the story will fit nicely into two books. 

 

I don't like the idea of the story turning into the war against the Others.  I feel like GRRM has written himself into a corner.  After all of these colorful characters and interesting plot threads the world is faced with RARRRR!! evil ice zombies?  I feel of all of the things that are inevitable to occur, that seems the most out of place.  Sorry I don't post here often so I had a lot to get off my chest.

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I think after a few more chapters in the Vale, Sansa will assume her Ladyship at Winterfell briefly, hosting a banquet for all northern houses to formally solidify her Ladyship and ties to the North.

Bolton and Stannis are in the north, while Rickon may also reappear there during TWOW. The armies of the Vale, unlike in the show, are very unlikely to leave the Vale anytime soon due to the snow making the passes out of the Vale unpenetrable (and the Vale seems to lack a large fleet to move its armies in other ways).

Sansa also wouldn't get full support of the Vale unless she is able to marry Harry (or alternatively, Sweetrobin) and given that her marriage to Tyrion hasn't been dissolved yet, this is problematic, too.

I think Sansa will stay in the Vale till this region also gets swept up in the coming "Dance of Dragons".
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Chrisdaw, the part of your predictions where you assume that Dany will get booted out of KL after she defeats Aegon, with Cersei somehow coming back, is the one where I have difficulties. Sure, there are indications that Dany will not be popular but she will likely have loyal followers like the core Unsullied. I don't see her getting Rhaenyra'ed out of KL; if she takes the throne I guess no one will take it by force from her afterwards; at most she may decide to step aside (for Jon, say).

A lot of people stumble on this and I don't really understand why. Putting aside things like her having to go North to go South at some point, the betrayals coming her way and her having to lose Drogon for him to return to her, if you don't believe people power is going to remove Dany from the throne what do you think GRRM is doing setting her up to be Westeros' most hated? What is the purpose?
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A lot of people stumble on this and I don't really understand why. Putting aside things like her having to go North to go South at some point, the betrayals coming her way and her having to lose Drogon for him to return to her, if you don't believe people power is going to remove Dany from the throne what do you think GRRM is doing setting her up to be Westeros' most hated? What is the purpose?

To make it difficult for her (an uprising that fails, for example)? To persuade her to vacate the throne voluntarily, at some point?

Or maybe it won't matter too much once she plays her role in defeating the Others, and solving the upcoming food crisis.

It's a rather big leap that Dany has to lose KL in the same way Rhaenyra lost it, just because it looks she will be unpopular. It's a possible outcome, but not a certainty.
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Interesting speculation. AFAIK the idea of Lancel securing Sansa out of Shadrichs hands hasn't been suggested yet. It would provide a way to get Sansa to KL without Cersei having her killed right away.

Sansa's storyline remains difficult to predict, many options are still open.
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