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Xray the Enforcer

[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 3

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All that I am sure of is that everything he has led Sansa/Allayne to believe is probably and most likely, not to happen. I do not think Littlefinger feels comfortable in telling anyone he is involved with the 100% absolute truth about anything. Especially the young lady he would undoubtably love to marry and make babies with himself.


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Nothing suggests Ser Galladon or Ser Morgarth are there with Ser Shadrich.

You seem to have an awfully unrealistic idea of the ease of sending messages in Westeros. All evidence points to the fact that he is there alone and without any help. I'm not saying he is not working for Varys (I don't have an opinion on that tbh) but even if he is, that doesn't make getting out of the Vale any easier.

Agree with the bolded. LF hired the sellswords, he did not indicate that they were working together, only that they were introduced to Sansa at the same time. Brie was actively looking for Sansa, which was why Shadrich may have offered for the them to throw in together. He might be willing to share a 'plumb bag of gold' with one other (or try to cheat her), but two others? I don't think the gold bag is that plump. I'm not convinced he's one of Vary's mice either. He's a sellsword, a free agent.

Edited by LongRider

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Writing a character who finds Sansa, who knows her true identity and having him failed to abduct Sansa serves no purpose and makes no sense.

It serves the purpose of jolting the status quo and perhaps causing Sansa to reevaluate her situation, if she's not necessarily pretending to be "Alayne" anymore and that whole headspace goes away. Or it could mean any number of other things.

Conversely, what purpose or sense does it make to have Sansa embarking on a lengthy travelogue or imprisonment away from the stage GRRM has spent a decent amount of time setting up for her, where she can practice court intrigue and interact with factions that she may have some leverage with?

and there is the suspicion that someone climbed LF's window and spied on his papers

This theory really made no sense. A spy who climbed through the window would not have left it disordered.

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I not sure why we should assume the dagger detail will be significant. I mean, if Harry is going to die, how do you know he will not be strangled to death with Myrrish lace?


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I not sure why we should assume the dagger detail will be significant. I mean, if Harry is going to die, how do you know he will not be strangled to death with Myrrish lace?

Yeah, I think people are overstating the significance of the daggers. It's not like, if somebody was otherwise stabbed with a dagger, most of the guests would not be people who might have daggers on them. And you can't perform a forensic analysis of the dagger wound to determine it was made this this kind of dagger. The only way that could be implicating is if the dagger were left behind with the body, but in that case you'd just ask for everybody who was given a dagger to produce theirs.

Edited by Colonel Green

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But lots of new daggers could present lots of new opportunities for violence. Tempers can run high in a tourney, so it remains to be seen.


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But the daggers were given to a class of people who would logically already have weapons. I don't see that it really creates any new opportunities.


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But the daggers were given to a class of people who would logically already have weapons. I don't see that it really creates any new opportunities.

Cool, YMMV and all that. :)

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It serves the purpose of jolting the status quo and perhaps causing Sansa to reevaluate her situation, if she's not necessarily pretending to be "Alayne" anymore and that whole headspace goes away. Or it could mean any number of other things.

Conversely, what purpose or sense does it make to have Sansa embarking on a lengthy travelogue or imprisonment away from the stage GRRM has spent a decent amount of time setting up for her, where she can practice court intrigue and interact with factions that she may have some leverage with?

She will display her skills in KL when she becomes a prisoner of Cersei again. She has a trial to win. She can play some cards like Cersei's mistrust to the Tyrells, their secret dealings with the LF, and she might denounce Rickon as an impostor as he will be supporting Stannis. At the same time, she might make quick alliances with Marg or Tyene.

I think Sansa is supposed to be the Younger and More Beautiful Queen (if such a thing is not a product of Cersei's schizophrenic mind) and she can do that only in the KL.

Edited by Mithras

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Yeah, I think people are overstating the significance of the daggers. It's not like, if somebody was otherwise stabbed with a dagger, most of the guests would not be people who might have daggers on them. And you can't perform a forensic analysis of the dagger wound to determine it was made this this kind of dagger. The only way that could be implicating is if the dagger were left behind with the body, but in that case you'd just ask for everybody who was given a dagger to produce theirs.

Exactly!

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Yeah, I think people are overstating the significance of the daggers. It's not like, if somebody was otherwise stabbed with a dagger, most of the guests would not be people who might have daggers on them. And you can't perform a forensic analysis of the dagger wound to determine it was made this this kind of dagger. The only way that could be implicating is if the dagger were left behind with the body, but in that case you'd just ask for everybody who was given a dagger to produce theirs.

I don't think the daggers are important, but - exactly.

Let's say someone knifes (well, 'daggers') Sweet Robin. Everyone but, let's say, Harry, has their daggers. Harry protests, naturally, that his was stolen while the true shanker got an additional one from Nestor Royce / Petyr Baelish (or stole his and used that). That is reasonable doubt, in the absence of fingerprinting, but Westeros does not exactly operate on the presumption of innocence.

Edited by ADanceWithCats 😸

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I absolutely think LF IS trying to woo Harry, Why else is he flattering him by placing him in the Falcon tower And what is the purpose of the ridiculously lavish display of his wealth? I really think the best place to look for clues as to what LF intends is in the actual text and not wildly speculating that LF must be doing a quadruple bluff which has zero textual evidence behind it. It seems entirely based on some peoples conviction that LF is a master player who never reveals his hand. When in actuality from what we've seen of him he is opportunistic and manipulative, and has no hang ups about honour, ethics, or morality. Which is how he has climbed so high.



Without Lysa Tully's love for him he would have gotten no where. He was prepared to exploit that love to get himself into a position where he could defraud the Vale, and then KL. He is undoubtedly very clever, and has used his intelligence to rob the lords and merchants blind. Then once he amassed unimaginable wealth he triggers a war, again he is able to do this due to his influence upon Lysa Arryn.


Since then he was able to manipulate Catelyn into further pushing the realm to war via the lie about the dagger an opportunistic event, he did not plan that and merely took advantage of what happened. Then he did the trick with Ned/Cersei & the Gold Cloaks. Which was all him and very underhand, because the man has no hang ups about his word, and honour etc. In fact he seems to laugh in the face of the concept and uses the fact other people believe in it against them.


So he Then influences Joffrey to behead Ned, again opportunistic, he see's that Joffrey is young, unsure of how best to be a king, a teenager who no doubt slightly resents having to have a regent, who wants to assert that HE is in charge not his mother. And who has a sadistic personality. A different king and LF would be unable to guarantee all out war by persuading them to kill Ned.



Next LF squirrels Jeyne away, not because he had a master plan to use her as fArya, how could he possibly know at that point she'd be needed? He simply saw an opportunity to acquire a young, pretty, fresh, gently born whore. Who would make him money. Later he takes advantage of the Bolton/Lannister/Frey alliance and pulls her out as an option to be used. Opportunistic.


Then he treats with the Tyrells, which he is able to do due to his position on the Small Council & of course he double crosses the Lannisters by making his own deals with them. Which ultimately get Joffrey out of the way for him, Joffrey who turned out to be way too unpredictable to have much influence over. Because the boy was just way too volatile! Cersei whom he knows and understands what moves her was a much safer bet for him, and so Tommen provides more time for LF to get what he desires. Joffrey do not forget was no longer going to have a regent after his wedding.


Also this plan enabled him to approach Dontos and gain Sansa's trust. Before the Tyrells even arrived in the City he had the plan in place to kill Joffrey at the wedding and use it as a distraction to get Sansa. He double crossed the Tyrells who also had their eye on Sansa.



Again he uses Lysa's feelings for him to secure a safe place to retreat to, Which was his long term plan obviously that he planned, he ensured she kept the Vale out of the war, and so it was well stocked with both an army and crops. Bringing sansa along upset the plans though, as it unbalanced Lysa. Cue the rash choice to eliminate her. And so he has to formulate another plan. Obviously his initial one had been to raise SR and use the relationship with Lysa as his regent to get the Vale to work for him, and if that had worked out no doubt he would kill Harry the Heir.



But his feelings for Sansa are changing his plan. He obviously see's her as a means to get the power of the North & the Riverlands also on his side. And so he is relying on the honour of the Vale lords whom he rightly imo assumes will mostly wish to fight to restore a Stark in Winterfell. He would have used her to this end no matter if Lysa lived or died. But he would have offered her hand to some influential vale Lords son, Probably BYR as Andar is I think unmarried? Anyway he had to change tack once he killed Lysa. So he formulates the idea to instead marry her to Harry and win the boy over then use him and Sansa to get the Vale to take the North, and enforce his rulership of the Riverlands, though he won't say he wants his seat he will pretend to not want anything so much as for the rightful heir to take her place in Winterfell and avenge Robb & Ned Stark & Catelyn & the Tully's and Of course Jon Arryn who the Lannisters had killed. (making the Vale lords believe this which Lysa already planted with Tyrion's trial in the Eyrie, is one of the Keys to getting the Vale lords to rebel.) He will imo say he wishes to restore Edmure as Lord of the Riverlands. Thus fooling the High Lords into believing he believes that they are all better than him and their privileged position is right & proper.


Now what exactly he thinks to do next once he has united two regions under the banner of Harry & Sansa, with a view to retaking the Riverlands also I don't know. i assume he thinks to march on Kl and take the IT, with himself as hand of the King, whoever he chooses as most easily manipulated would sit the It I imagine. I really don't think he'd attempt to sit his own arse in the chair. But he won't get that far as once at Winterfell Sansa will have him beheaded after discovering his role in the downfall of her family, Or i am beginning to think it more that she may discover what he did to Jeyne. I think we are being reminded of their relationship in this chapter for a reason.



So you see when you look at what Peytr Baelish has actually achieved so far it is clear he is more opportunistic & manipulative than master omnipotent puppeteer. He plays people and is flexible in his plans.


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A note: LF has Braavosi origins and in Braavos, when there is an election to select the new Sealord, "knives come out".


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I am so so confused. The show really IS sending Sansa North to marry Ramsay. What does this mean for where the books are going?

I know that the books are not the show, but still there must be something about Sansa's book arc that makes this change make sense eventually. I am looking at this new chapter for clues on how the two versions of Sansa's story eventually fit back together.

I am sure she will go North of course, but by then presumably either Ramsay or Stannis will be dead. So she can't marry Ramsay, or side with Stannis to undermine him a-la-Manderly like she will in the show.

One possibility to discuss is that Manderly's eastern connection is hinting that he will side with Aegon and use Rickon to do it, and that Sansa will side with Stannis while taking over Manderly's Winterfell revenge plot. This would put two Starks on opposing sides in the Aegon-Stannis clash. Or maybe it is the other way around: Sansa-Aegon, Rickon-Stannis.

Edited by Hippocras

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A note: LF has Braavosi origins and in Braavos, when there is an election to select the new Sealord, "knives come out".

I do think this is relevant. But it is not clear how. Is LF on the same side as Tycho Nestoris, or is he working to undermine the IB?

Where does Manderly stand? What is his hinted Eastern connection about? Is it about the Iron Bank, or Varys and Aegon, or Littlefinger?

Edited by Hippocras

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I really don't think you can assume anything from the show. We know that Jaime never sets foot in Dorne in Feast/dance yet the show are taking him there. They have their own reasons, non of which are connected to what GRRM is doing in his books. Ditto they have their reasons for cutting Arianne and that means nothing for her book character. I really think it is high time people gave up trying to fit pieces together using the show as a resource because it is becoming increasingly evident that they are doing their own thing.


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I am so so confused. The show really IS sending Sansa North to marry Ramsay. What does this mean for where the books are going?

I know that the books are not the show, but still there must be something about Sansa's book arc that makes this change make sense eventually. I am looking at this new chapter for clues on how the two versions of Sansa's story eventually fit back together.

To me, this simply supports the idea that Sansa's arc is personal - that things such as armies and her exact location won't matter to its most important moments. I think that we'll know more when the season ends, though - if she's going to be still in Winterfell, move with Theon towards Stannis, go with Brienne back South, or whatnot.

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This theory really made no sense. A spy who climbed through the window would not have left it disordered.

Not on purpose, but if he had to leave in a hurry due to Sansa unexpectedly turning up, that would have been the best way to obfuscate what had happened. I mean, one of the "mice" would likely close the window from the outside too, given the opportunity. They'd have to be skilled enough to do so, and there is no point in risking LF or whoever remembering that the window had been closed and wondering about it.

Re: Myranda, I wonder if it wouldn't have been better for her to guess Sansa's secret and know that she can't possibly marry Harry in the near future. Also, I really hope that she is not a complete fool. I mean, LF's generosity to her father is the only reason for her to be even a remotely realistic possibility for Harry's hand. Nestor had been really only previously important because of his office, he didn't own much. Which is another strike against Jon Arryn's ability to pick good people for important offices, BTW, as is also evident by his nominations as a Hand in KL. So, undermining LF and, by extension, Alayane, would be sawing through the branch that Myranda is sitting on. Particularly since we haven't seen any sign of Harry reciprocating her feelings. .

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I really don't think you can assume anything from the show. We know that Jaime never sets foot in Dorne in Feast/dance yet the show are taking him there. They have their own reasons, non of which are connected to what GRRM is doing in his books. Ditto they have their reasons for cutting Arianne and that means nothing for her book character. I really think it is high time people gave up trying to fit pieces together using the show as a resource because it is becoming increasingly evident that they are doing their own thing.

That's not really the point though. The books and show are telling the same over-arching story. The paths to the end don't need to be the same but they do need to arrive at the same story destination.

I am not trying to understand how they fit together now, I am trying to understand how these moves lead to the same end game.

The point on Sansa's arc being personal is interesting ADanceWithCats. Bu her arc is not independent of LF's or Stannis's or Ramsay's now that she is going North, so what are the consequences.

Edited by Hippocras

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