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Middle East and North Africa 19


Eyron

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So now Daesh forces are apparently fighting for the town of al-Ma'ameer 20 kilometers outside Baghdad. There is no way they can take Baghdad, but the fact that their this close shows how bad the Iraqi army has done at making any progress.


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So now Daesh forces are apparently fighting for the town of al-Ma'ameer 20 kilometers outside Baghdad. There is no way the can take Baghdad, but the fact that their this close shows how bad the Iraqi army has done at making any progress.

The Iraqi army is useless.

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What is it with these Arab armies that they all seem utterly incapable of conducting efficient military operations even with superiority in manpower and equipment?

Every army is its own tale, but broadly, there's a serious shortage of institutional learning capability and a terrible officer class (per Darzin's link) these features are linked, in that armies in this part of the world tend to be institutions of patronage and political power rather than warfighting per se, and the kind of collaboration between branches and promotion of capable leadership cuts directly across the imperative to have loyal commanders in charge of the best-equipped units.

That's definitely the story of the SAA and the Iraqi Army but we can also add in things like the latter having been disbanded and reconstituted in the worst possible circumstances and the former being short on manpower and largely established on Soviet lines with a massive tank corps well-equipped to take on 1970s Israel, not so much a modern insurgency.

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Every army is its own tale, but broadly, there's a serious shortage of institutional learning capability and a terrible officer class (per Darzin's link) these features are linked, in that armies in this part of the world tend to be institutions of patronage and political power rather than warfighting per se, and the kind of collaboration between branches and promotion of capable leadership cuts directly across the imperative to have loyal commanders in charge of the best-equipped units.

That's definitely the story of the SAA and the Iraqi Army but we can also add in things like the latter having been disbanded and reconstituted in the worst possible circumstances and the former being short on manpower and largely established on Soviet lines with a massive tank corps well-equipped to take on 1970s Israel, not so much a modern insurgency.

It should also be said that the quality of the combatants themselves doesn't seem to be the best, a lot of the time...

Look at this video for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8waDkUVZPY

I mean, what the hell is this? Completely useless. There are tonnes more clips like these out there; of combatants just walking around while screaming incoherently, shooting without aiming, or both.

Hezbollah seems to be the only organization fighting down there whose soldiers really know what they are doing.

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Yeah it's pretty sad how much more effective Hezbollah has been when compared to the SAA. If the Syrian army had a quarter of the men they do now but was organized and led like Hezbollah the war would be over.



Also it was Hayyoth's link not mine. Mine was to a Qasem Soleimani Hilter parody.


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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/25/mideast-crisis-iraq-iran-idUSL5N0YG0MK20150525?rpc=401





Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force responsible for protecting the Islamic Republic's interests abroad, has become a familiar face on the battlefields of Iraq, where he often outranks local commanders.




"Obama has not done a damn thing so far to confront Daesh: doesn't that show that there is no will in America to confront it?" Mehr quoted Soleimani as saying, using a derogatory Arabic term for Islamic State.


"How is it that America claims to be protecting the Iraqi government, when a few kilometres away in Ramadi killings and war crimes are taking place and they are doing nothing?"


The Obama administration has led air strikes against the group and provided assistance to the Iraqi army. Some U.S. Republicans have called for ground troops to be deployed.




America does seem to be leading a purely token effort against Daesh, ten air sorties a day, with maybe one or two actual ground attack missions when you remove surveillance and aborted missions, is like a pin prick on a blue whale. At best it's forced Daesh to adapt and avoid armored convoys, but otherwise achieved very little. Soleimani is essentially correct.


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That's definitely the story of the SAA and the Iraqi Army but we can also add in things like the latter having been disbanded and reconstituted in the worst possible circumstances and the former being short on manpower and largely established on Soviet lines with a massive tank corps well-equipped to take on 1970s Israel, not so much a modern insurgency.

Well, seeing as how they had their asses kicked by Israel in the 70s, they weren't exactly successful ;)

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Well, seeing as how they had their asses kicked by Israel in the 70s, they weren't exactly successful ;)

No, but the whole point of assembling the world's fifth largest tank army was that Syria would be ready for a rematch with 1970s Israel for decades to come.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/25/mideast-crisis-iraq-iran-idUSL5N0YG0MK20150525?rpc=401

America does seem to be leading a purely token effort against Daesh, ten air sorties a day, with maybe one or two actual ground attack missions when you remove surveillance and aborted missions, is like a pin prick on a blue whale. At best it's forced Daesh to adapt and avoid armored convoys, but otherwise achieved very little. Soleimani is essentially correct.

It's not a token effort so much as it's a "We are really really interested in stopping ISIS but there is no fucking way we are putting boots on the ground in the Middle East in any significant way".

It cannot be underestimated how fundamentally the Iraq and Afghanistan wars reshaped US foreign policy in the middle east. Nor how fundamental "Do not start another Iraq" is to the Obama Admin's foreign policy.

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As much as everyone would like IS destroyed yesterday there's no magic bullet. It thrives off the breakdown of the Iraqi and Syrian polities and they aren't getting fixed or replaced any time soon.


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  • 1 month later...

Dusty in here.




in kind of a big deal news: FT says Jordan preparing to set up a buffer zone in Deraa when (not if, article appears quite confident) Assad forces retreat from Southern Front's offensive - they're worried about the newly formed Jaish al-Fateh South and IS's proximity after Palmyra, but might this not become a magnet?



in not that big of a deal news: June 30 Iran talks deadline won't be met, but as ever, the parties are going to go into overtime



in jesus christ Tayyip news: in the wake of the YPG's sizeable gains and last month's humiliating election result Erdogan is pushing for a buffer zone of his own in the north of Syria, though possibly this is a ploy for the parliamentary negotiations.



in RIP last embers of 2011 news: the US gets tired of pretending it gives a shit about democracy in Bahrain, lifts remaining sanctions


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The only benchmark established here is the breadth of your ability to distort everything you see to fit your desired pre-existing narrative.

First rule of cultivated discourse: attack the message, not the messenger.

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First rule of cultivated discourse: attack the message, not the messenger.

Nah. It's called "spotting a pattern". It's what your brain is for and everything.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Guardian says we've got an Iran deal, with only the drafting remaining to be finalised:

http://gu.com/p/4at9c

Following that there's a minimum three months of kicking and screaming in Congress, all sorts of shenanigans in Tehran with backing vocals from Tel Aviv and Riyadh. Can't wait :D

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Guardian says we've got an Iran deal, with only the drafting remaining to be finalised:

http://gu.com/p/4at9c

Following that there's a minimum three months of kicking and screaming in Congress, all sorts of shenanigans in Tehran with backing vocals from Tel Aviv and Riyadh. Can't wait :D

Probably better in the US politics thread but: Does anybody believes that there is an actual chance that congress is going to kill the deal? Sure kicking and screaming waiting untill day 59 23:59 but then signing off.

They get be that crazy/hell bend, can they?

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67 Senate votes to overcome a Presidential veto is probably too high a bar to overcome, but this is the US Senate we're talking about.

But I mean honestly, they must have some sense of self preservation, I hope. I mean that would not only be bad for the president (hell he is going out of office and will be probably flying around the world giving speeches in about 1 year so his futur does not really depend on it) but for them as well. They have no alternative to offer and it is really not that sure that the sanction will survive a congressional veto. They have to think about that possibility.

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But I mean honestly, they must have some sense of self preservation, I hope. I mean that would not only be bad for the president (hell he is going out of office and will be probably flying around the world giving speeches in about 1 year so his futur does not really depend on it) but for them as well. They have no alternative to offer and it is really not that sure that the sanction will survive a congressional veto. They have to think about that possibility.

I genuinely find it hard to get my head around what the anti-deal Democrats think they'd get out of torpedoing this. There's nothing else on the table, and if this deal goes down the sanctions coalition that made any of this possible unravels. This is as good a deal as anyone is going to get and a damn sight less expensive and risky than any other option.

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