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Ukraine 18 - The Rites of Spring


Horza

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Yes. And then Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Closely followed by Swaziland and Zanzibar. I have it on good authority that the Swaziland invasion will be airborne, so South Africa and Mozambique have nothing to worry about.

Stop trolling, please. It isn't funny.

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Mr. Fixit,

Gosh, given what happened last year (and is currently happening) in Ukraine why would anyone be worried about a similar situation arising in Moldova?

Because there is this thing called informed opinion and then there is aimless flailing too see what sticks. Be calm. Swaziland is secure.

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Mr. Fixit,

Your Ad Absurdum comment about Swaziland is relevant to Transdenistra asking for Russian intervention in Moldova, how?

The last few months I've seen politicians and media warning us about potential Russian aggression in Moldova, Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Kazakhstan, and I'm certain I missed a few. Pardon me if I'm a bit sceptical about these nuggets of wisdom.

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Mr. Fixit,

I welcome your skepticism. That doesn't mean all agressive Russian movements should be ignored. Ignoring Russian actions contributed to the annexation of Crimea and civil war in the Donbass supported by Russian troops, or, are you skeptical about those too?

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The last few months I've seen politicians and media warning us about potential Russian aggression in Moldova, Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Kazakhstan, and I'm certain I missed a few. Pardon me if I'm a bit sceptical about these nuggets of wisdom.

Share some of your wisdom then. No trolling, please.

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Mr. Fixit,

I welcome your skepticism. That doesn't mean all agressive Russian movements should be ignored. Ignoring Russian actions contributed to the annexation of Crimea and civil war in the Donbass supported by Russian troops, or, are you skeptical about those too?

Not much will be gained by faulty logic. We are bombarded by a constant stream of truths, half-truths and lies, and not only in politics. It's a part of our existence as human beings. A well-informed and rational person learns to separate one from the other (from the third). Ukraine (and Georgia for that matter) were known issues going years back. Anyone who knows anything about them knew that Russia draws the line with those two countries. You and I may or may not like it, but it's simply so. Crimea wasn't the least bit surprising to me when it happened. Pretty much all analysts worth their salt suspected something like it might be Putin's answer to Kiev revolution.

These other silly things about Poland and Mozambique don't really merit a serious answer.

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Mr. Fixit,

And this lovely comment from the Russian Defense Minister:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/Tanks-dont-need-visas-Putin-aide-tells-west/articleshow/47432455.cms

From the article:

MOSCOW: An outspoken deputy prime minister in charge of Russia's defence sector has dismissed western concerns over Moscow's increased assertiveness in the Arctic by saying that "tanks don't need visas".

President Vladimir Putin's associate Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defence industry, is known for his hawkish remarks and enjoys rattling western officials.

"I've always joked about it ... so what if they won't give us visas, put us on sanctions list ... tanks don't need visas," Rogozin said on state TV late Sunday, after the host asked him whether Europe and the United States are concerned about Russia's presence in the Arctic.

Nothing to see here... move along.

Is it your assertion that the Russians would never take steps like those we've seen in Ukraine and Georgia in other former Soviet republics or other former Russian satelite states?

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Shryke,

But sabre rattling only works if people think it's possible the sabre will leave the scabard. As such, while I agree action in Moldova is unlikely, I do see it within the realm of possibility, if that makes any sense. Therefore, I don't think it should be ignored.

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I doubt Russia will actually do anything in Moldova.

They will rattle sabers about it though to try and scare people.

Eh, not really but close enough. Russian saber-rattling is more geared towards their internal political situation. Putin wants to show the people that Russia won't be easily intimidated. They have an authoritarian political culture there that feeds on stuff like this (hence, the 'tanks don't need visas' nonsense). Internationally, this message isn't aimed at 'people' but at political elites as a reminder of the cost that crossing Russian 'red lines' entails.

Though, bullshit about the Russian aggression against Lesotho and Papua New Guinea is hardly Russian saber-rattling, just run-of-the-mill political preemptive spin designed to prepare the public to assent to more stringent measures if needed.

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Are you people joking?

Estonia has reported many cyber attacks from Russia, as if the bronze warrior alone would havo not been enough.

Not to mention Eston Kohver!

Oh yeah, I totally believe they'll continue to fuck around with the Baltics.

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Shryke,

But sabre rattling only works if people think it's possible the sabre will leave the scabard. As such, while I agree action in Moldova is unlikely, I do see it within the realm of possibility, if that makes any sense. Therefore, I don't think it should be ignored.

I've always been of the opinion that politics is the art of predestination. Look hard enough and you'll find it. Or cause it in the first place.

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