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Heresy 165


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Thanks for summing it up BC. ;)

Ah well, if you must know : http://-heresy-164 Glamours,lineages,magic

Seriously though, if you want to go back to earlier threads [all the way back to the beginning] Wolfmaid runs a very useful set of links in a thread pinned at the top of the ADwD page - just go to the OP and open the spoiler for a full listing.

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And, again, our context for "predictable" and "obvious" is almost certainly not in alignment with that of someone that is reading the books for the first time, or is just a more casual reader. If GRRM has done his job as an author, it should absolutely be possible to predict certain broad strokes of the story, especially when you're waiting 5 - 10 years for the next step in that story, and have had the luxury of rereads and rigorous discussion.

More significantly, just because you can look at the information we have at Point A, and reasonably predict what might be waiting for us at Point B, that doesn't mean that the journey itself won't be exciting, and full of fine details and nuance. Someone with the information available in aCoK might reasonably predict that Robb is going to die, but that does not remotely do justice to the way that whole plot line actually plays out on the page.

Precisely. :cheers:

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1. Ser Arthur was with Rhaegar; it was Hightower who was present at the execution and muttered to Jaime Lannister about guarding, not judging the king.

2. Lyanna was lifted by Rhaegar but as nobody knew where he went, demanding justice of the king would ordinarily be the proper procedure

3. The abduction occurred several months after the tournament, and there's a shred suspicion it occurred at the Inn at the Crossroads with inconvenient witnesses - as when Catelyn Starrk lifted Tyrion

4. We don't actually know where Rhaegar went to start off with. He certainly appears to have wound up in Dorne but that may not have been his initial destination.

5. Aerys is not quite sane

6. It all rather depends on what Rhaegar actually thought he was playing at

7. It was quite some time before Hightower tooled up to order him home but its not certain whether he led or attached himself to the Dornish army.

#1 - You are quite right. How clumsy of me!

#3 - I am expecting that as well, but haven't even thought about speculating "who".

#4 - people in Kings Landing knew he went to Dorne, otherwise they wouldn't know where to send the Kingsguard.

#5 - he was paranoid and certainly cruel, but maybe crazy like a fox?

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Perfectly true, but I think that the problem in this case is that a fairly obvious and to be honest perfectly plausible assumption about the paternity of a particular character is assuming an importance not so far warranted by the course of the story and being used to predict a very specific outcome.

The secret of Jon's parentage itself isn't even obvious to casual readers. Yet they know he questions his loyalty/connection to Winterfell, struggles with his Stark-ness (and lack thereof), and wonders who his mother had been throughout the series.

Casual readers feel like someone will tell him who she had been someday, or think it is tragic that he died before he did. Those are the two camps... not the RLJ/nonRLJ that we have on the dissection table that is westeros.org. Ned 'not being' his father will already be a jaw-dropping twist for them. Lyanna will be a natural twist that grows from the telling of the tale itself. Arthur Dayne does not.

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2) The kidnapping caused Brandon to come to Kings Landing to confront Rhaegar.

At first glance, yes. But on closer inspection, it wasn't the "kidnapping" that caused Brandon to go to KL, it was someone telling Brandon that Rhaegar had abducted his ony sister.

This smacks of the machinations of Jon Arryn in my mind, once again.

3) Brandon believed Rhaegar had kidnapped Lyanna.

a) did this belief only come from rumors after the Tourney?

Brandon was at the Tourney, so he wouldn't really need to hear rumors to believe any mention of the abduction.

It remains to be seen if it was in fact an abduction at all. In any case, Brandon was known to be quick to anger, and not the smartest man in the 7K, like Robert Baratheon. It wouldn't take much to prod him.

5) Why does Aerys seem to over react to Brandon's accusations?

Over-react?!

If someone came up to my front door and threatened to murder my son, I'd deal with him severely, and quickly.

If I were king, I'd execute him publicly for high treason, as he has just threatened the crown prince.

If I were Aerys, I'd do exactly what Aerys did. But mayhaps I'm madder than most. LOL

a) surely he realizes that killing Brandon and Rickard would cause a revolt.

No. Aerys was not causing a revolt, he was being a king... by killing treasonous rebels.

6) The Rebellion doesn't happen until the deaths of Brandon and Rickard.

The rebellion didn't start with the flip of a switch. It grew from rising tensions. Those tensions began long before the Tourney.

a) Rhaegar didn't go to Dorne anticipating a rebellion.

Possible, but not likely. He had already "abducted" Lyanna. He had already sought out the support of the nobility to dethrone his father (making him a rebellion-eer as well). And, given Brandon's destination, it would appear quite likely Rhaegar got the hell outta Dodge when the gettin' was good.

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At first glance, yes. But on closer inspection, it wasn't the "kidnapping" that caused Brandon to go to KL, it was someone telling Brandon that Rhaegar had abducted his ony sister.

This smacks of the machinations of Jon Arryn in my mind, once again.

Brandon was at the Tourney, so he wouldn't really need to hear rumors to believe any mention of the abduction.

It remains to be seen if it was in fact an abduction at all. In any case, Brandon was known to be quick to anger, and not the smartest man in the 7K, like Robert Baratheon. It wouldn't take much to prod him.

Over-react?!

If someone came up to my front door and threatened to murder my son, I'd deal with him severely, and quickly.

If I were king, I'd execute him publicly for high treason, as he has just threatened the crown prince.

If I were Aerys, I'd do exactly what Aerys did. But mayhaps I'm madder than most. LOL

No. Aerys was not causing a revolt, he was being a king... by killing treasonous rebels.

The rebellion didn't start with the flip of a switch. It grew from rising tensions. Those tensions began long before the Tourney.

Possible, but not likely. He had already "abducted" Lyanna. He had already sought out the support of the nobility to dethrone his father (making him a rebellion-eer as well). And, given Brandon's destination, it would appear quite likely Rhaegar got the hell outta Dodge when the gettin' was good.

When I read about the deaths of Brandon and Rickard for the first time, I thought it was an over-reaction. And Jaime says to Tyrion, "Lord Eddard had a brother named Brandon as well, " Jaime mused. "One of the hostages murdered by Targaryen..." King Robert called what was done to Brandon and Rickard, "unspeakable". We learn the whole story in a conversation between Jaime and Catelyn.

Catelyn: "He was on his way to Riverrun when..." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years."...when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead. It was a rash thing to do." She remembered how her own father had raged when the news had been brought to Riverrun. The gallant fool, was what he called Brandon.

Jaime poured the last half cup of wine. "He rode into the Red Keep with a few companions, shouting for Prince Rhaegar to come out and die. But Rhaegar wasn't there. Aerys sent his guards to arrest them all for plotting his son's murder. The others were lords' sons too, it seems to me."

"Ethan Glover was Brandon's squire," Catelyn said. "He was the only one to survive. The others were Jeffory Mallister, Kyle Royce, and Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn's nephew and heir." It was queer how she still remembered the names, after so many years. "Aerys accused them of treason and summoned their fathers to court to answer the charge, with the sons as hostages. When they came, he had them murdered without trial. Fathers and sons both."

Rickard demanded trial by combat, and Aerys told him fire was the champion of House Targaryen.

I thought it was an over reaction because they were accusing Rhaegar of kidnapping Lyanna. There is no mention of Aerys fetching Rhaegar to answer to the charge, just an automatic sentence of treason. They called Aerys "mad", but I think he planned the whole thing.

Yes, there were tensions, but Rhaegar was talking to the different Houses about his succession, and Aerys was very suspcious and paranoid about Rhaegar. He wasn't known for leaving the Red Keep, but he went to the Harrenhal tourney because he wanted to see what Rhaegar was up to.

Edited to add: Brandon found out about the kidnapping when he was on his way from Winterfell to Riverrun to marry Catelyn and ends up going to Kings Landing. Seems like events are happening very quickly. When he arrives at Kings Landing, Rhaegar has already gone south.

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The rebellion didn't start with the flip of a switch. It grew from rising tensions. Those tensions began long before the Tourney.

Indeed. I don't remember if Feather was away when we were discussing this in the wake of the World Book publication, but basically the information we're given there about the political background suggests that far from being obsessed with prophecy or suddenly falling madly in love with a girl he'd never spoken to [or both] Rhaegar was walking a bit of a tightrope over a pit of vipers of various kinds.

Aerys was descending into madness and rebellion was brewing.

Dorne is secure so long as Elia and her children live and are like to inherit. Aerys doesn't trust the Martells and fears they will take over - exactly as Cersei at the present time fears a Tyrell takeover. And that is confirmed when Rhaegar is killed and Aerys promptly names his second son Viserys as the heir to the throne in place of the half-Dornish brats.

At the same time there's another, quite separate threat in an alliance between the Starks and Baratheon-Durrandons being masterminded by the Blessed St.Jon of Arryn and drawing in the Tullys as well. This one is probably more dangerous because its more broadly based and also a more specific threat to the Dragons. As that wise and learned man, Greatjon Umber sagely observed it was the dragons they "married" and now they have no dragons the Targaryen interlopers are vulnerable - especially as Aerys has alienated the Lannisters who alone can offer a counterbalance to these combinations.

This may be why House Targaryen is so very keen to find some dragons - quick.

In the meantime, while Dad chews the furniture, eldest son is trying to garner support for an orderly transition of power while at the same time frustrating the knavish conspiracies all around. Against this background Lyanna's abduction appears rather more plausibly as part of it than some romantick fairy tale. Aerys, scorning both diplomacy and duplicity, settles for a straightforward bit of the tried and trusted Fire and Blood.

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Brandon threatened the life of the king's eldest son, the widely beloved crown prince. If anything, Brandon started the rebellion. He was justly executed.



Rickard willingly answered for his son's crimes. A king will be a king. One does not simply tell the prince to come out and die.


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Indeed. I don't remember if Feather was away when we were discussing this in the wake of the World Book publication, but basically the information we're given there about the political background suggests that far from being obsessed with prophecy or suddenly falling madly in love with a girl he'd never spoken to [or both] Rhaegar was walking a bit of a tightrope over a pit of vipers of various kinds.

Aerys was descending into madness and rebellion was brewing.

Dorne is secure so long as Elia and her children live and are like to inherit. Aerys doesn't trust the Martells and fears they will take over - exactly as Cersei at the present time fears a Tyrell takeover. And that is confirmed when Rhaegar is killed and Aerys promptly names his second son Viserys as the heir to the throne in place of the half-Dornish brats.

At the same time there's another, quite separate threat in an alliance between the Starks and Baratheon-Durrandons being masterminded by the Blessed St.Jon of Arryn and drawing in the Tullys as well. This one is probably more dangerous because its more broadly based and also a more specific threat to the Dragons. As that wise and learned man, Greatjon Umber sagely observed it was the dragons they "married" and now they have no dragons the Targaryen interlopers are vulnerable - especially as Aerys has alienated the Lannisters who alone can offer a counterbalance to these combinations.

This may be why House Targaryen is so very keen to find some dragons - quick.

In the meantime, while Dad chews the furniture, eldest son is trying to garner support for an orderly transition of power while at the same time frustrating the knavish conspiracies all around. Against this background Lyanna's abduction appears rather more plausibly as part of it than some romantick fairy tale. Aerys, scorning both diplomacy and duplicity, settles for a straightforward bit of the tried and trusted Fire and Blood.

Lyanna's kidnapping was the worst plan ever for Rhaegar! As you already pointed out the alliance of Baratheon, Stark and Arryn and Tully could have been viewed as a huge threat. Rhaegar was trying to forge an alliance, and I believe Aerys kidnapped Lyanna to hold as a hostage to keep the North in line and it had the added bonus of ruining Rhaegar's plans.

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Brandon threatened the life of the king's eldest son, the widely beloved crown prince. If anything, Brandon started the rebellion. He was justly executed.

Rickard willingly answered for his son's crimes. A king will be a king. One does not simply tell the prince to come out and die.

Absolutely. No mediaeval monarch could ignore that kind of behaviour and the result although savage was entirely predictable. So predictable in fact that one has to wonder whether Brandon had his buttons pushed.

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Ah well, if you must know : http://-heresy-164 Glamours,lineages,magic

Seriously though, if you want to go back to earlier threads [all the way back to the beginning] Wolfmaid runs a very useful set of links in a thread pinned at the top of the ADwD page - just go to the OP and open the spoiler for a full listing.

Thanks, BC

It was another deleted thread though, no word over there yet on it.

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(1) Brandon threatened the life of the king's eldest son...

...or would have, had Rhaegar been anywhere nearby. Given that he wasn't even there, it's hard to argue that Brandon posed much of a threat.

... One does not simply tell the prince to come out and die.

Nor did Brandon Stark do so, either. For the very reason that Prince Rhaegar was not there to be told.

Aerys didn't arrest or execute Brandon Stark for posing a threat. He arrested and executed him for being a hot-headed fool. Maybe that's within a king's right to do. But it's hard to argue this king handled the situation with wisdom. Or that the execution was inarguably "just."

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Thanks, BC

It was another deleted thread though, no word over there yet on it.

News to me. The link is indeed broken but it ran its full term and after what happened to 163 care was taken to avoid a repeat so I know nothing :dunno:

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Lyanna's kidnapping was the worst plan ever for Rhaegar! As you already pointed out the alliance of Baratheon, Stark and Arryn and Tully could have been viewed as a huge threat. Rhaegar was trying to forge an alliance, and I believe Aerys kidnapped Lyanna to hold as a hostage to keep the North in line and it had the added bonus of ruining Rhaegar's plans.

Its always been a story of unintended consequences and we don't know what Rhaegar's cunning plan really was.

The problem with Aerys being involved is that we're very specifically told on every side that Rhaegar carried out the abduction and there's not the slightest evidence she was ever in Kings Landing at any point. Aerys might have ordered Rhaegar to do it and then lie low but it really doesn't sound like his style, especially as he himself took a very long time to locate and recall Rhaegar.

Nor, as I said above, is there really any evidence that Rhaegar went straight to Dorne. We've a pretty shrewd idea Lord Eddard went there to recover Lyanna from Starfall, but had she been there all the time?

What I'm starting to wonder you see, given what I outlined above, is whether Rhaegar, having lifted Lyanna didn't ride south to Dorne but west - to Casterley Rock and Tywin Lannister and whether this might be the origin of the Stark-Lannister feud

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And with that, as its my bed-time its also time to call it a night on Heresy 165.



Heresy 166 where I've copied #395 for the sake of continuity is up and running and I'll see you all over there in the morning.




Good night all and thanks for coming.


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And with that, as its my bed-time its also time to call it a night on Heresy 165.

Heresy 166 where I've copied #395 for the sake of continuity is up and running and I'll see you all over there in the morning.

Good night all and thanks for coming.

We need a link BC... no clicking on usernames/threads available right now....

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