Could Mance have always been working for the Night's Watch?

[Hos the Hostage]

There are too many mysteries around this man. Leading to too many theories. Pink Letter, working for Others, working for Stark revival, Stark bastard, Rhaegar Targaryen etc.

Jeor Mormont and Qhorin Halfhand had a (grudgingly) good opinion of Mance Rayder. I was always disturbed by the fact that Qhorin chose Jon to be the spy. He knew Jon had the best chance. Of course, it could be due to other reasons as mentioned in other theories, but I want to know if there is a chance that a 'select few' men of the Watch, who realized that Wildlings were but men and the greater enemy was the Others, devised a plan to get them South of the Wall before it was too late? Because ultimately, that's what Mance achieved.

He was never going to bring the Wall down (based on what we are led to believe). But bringing the wildlings south helps to reduce the whitewalker population. The disarray that wildlings cause in the South, shame for the NW to let them pass, are all secondary (as Jon realized) compared to the whitewalker threat. And Osha says this about Mance:

He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower.

-A Game of Thrones

Its like in the film the Departed, where all the time we thought Billy Costigan was the only spy in Costello's gang, but this old man named Delahunt was working undercover for ages, and saved Billy's secret getting exposed. Since this type of twist has happened in a movie(and many other movies, maybe - I wouldn't know) kinda makes this theory less likely to happen, probably, but do you think its possible? Anything in the books to support the idea?

[TheLightning Lord]

i really want to know why he wrote the pink letter

also i am yet to see a mance rayder theory i agree with, no one seems to know what he's planning

[The Great Cornholio!]

Actually, this just made me think about when Jon kills Qhorin Half-Hand. Would that qualify as a "sacrafice"? And did he use Long Claw to carry it out?

[addicted to snow]

There are too many mysteries around this man. Leading to too many theories. Pink Letter, working for Others, working for Stark revival, Stark bastard, Rhaegar Targaryen etc.

Jeor Mormont and Qhorin Halfhand had a (grudgingly) good opinion of Mance Rayder. I was always disturbed by the fact that Qhorin chose Jon to be the spy. He knew Jon had the best chance. Of course, it could be due to other reasons as mentioned in other theories, but I want to know if there is a chance that a 'select few' men of the Watch, who realized that Wildlings were but men and the greater enemy was the Others, devised a plan to get them South of the Wall before it was too late? Because ultimately, that's what Mance achieved.

He was never going to bring the Wall down (based on what we are led to believe). But bringing the wildlings south helps to reduce the whitewalker population. The disarray that wildlings cause in the South, shame for the NW to let them pass, are all secondary (as Jon realized) compared to the whitewalker threat. And Osha says this about Mance:

Its like in the film the Departed, where all the time we thought Billy Costigan was the only spy in Costello's gang, but this old man named Delahunt was working undercover for ages, and saved Billy's secret getting exposed. Since this type of twist has happened in a movie(and many other movies, maybe - I wouldn't know) kinda makes this theory less likely to happen, probably, but do you think its possible? Anything in the books to support the idea?

I think that Mance coming to Winterfell to see the king could have only happened if Mance were with/near Benjin when Benjin got word... I think that Mance, Benjin, & Ned had plans to resettle the Gift with Wildings before the Others Returned, but they got caught offgaurd... Mance's job was to rally the Freefolk & prepare them for the migration.

Ned says in AGOTs that one day he may needs to call the banners, ride out beyond the wall, and deal with this Mance Rayder... I think that he meant to do just this, but be deal with Mance Rayder he means escort him & his followers into the King's peace...

[Whitering]

I think it would have been hilarious if he had mocked Jon by pulling out Jon's own defense that he was ordered to do this by the previous (to Mormont) Lord Commander.

[Debora Bell]

Casterly Rock. Just see the picture in WoIaF

I'm going tactical. Nope to Casterly.

[Debora Bell]

Mormont was called The Bear! Will he come back as a Wight but on the side of man as Cold Hands did?

[Clegane'sPup]

I find Mance to be an interesting character and hope that WOW will give more detail.

There is more to that quote though. Osha is talking with Bran and she says

The cold winds are rising, and men go out from the fires and never come back…or if they do, they’re not men no more, only wights, with blue eyes and cold black hands. Why do you think I run south with Stiv and Hali and the rest of them fools? Mance thinks he will fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King Beyond the Wall, but he is still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower.

Osha clarifies her statement by saying

He [Mance] never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her, born of the free folk. We remember. (Damn, that we remember sounds familiar, why I do not know)

When Osha, Stiv, Hali and the other fools attack Bran, Chapter 37, Osha says

“The boy [bran] is worth nothing dead, but alive… gods be damned, think what Mance would give to have Benjen Stark’s own blood to hostage.”

I understand that mine is an unpopular opinion, but the author puts together his story in a disheveled manner. Readers are introduced to the Others in the prologue, BUT I was lead to believe that the wildings are the problem and the Others do not exist. As in Old Nan’s tales of snarks and grumpkins.

Mance, who has been to WF on various occasions, knows how to breech the wall, knows upon sight who Jon is, is interested in the Starks, why?

Then I get this (my shortcut version) Mance goes to WF with five spearwives, to save the Stark girl.

I hope it will be cleared up in WOW.

[bemused]

Mance was in Winterfell once,as a young man with LC Qorgyll, and once during Robert's visit, when he took note of Ned and all his children ...If he got the wildlings past the Wall, the Starks and Winterfell would be his main immediate opposition (who he'd have to either fight or negotiate with). Ned must have been introduced to him on his first visit , but didn't recognise him later, as the singer. (Even then named Abel?)

Ned thinks poor Gared's story is not to be believed and identifies the wildlings at the cause of Gared's fear, and the loss of rangers.“Who else?”, he says to Cat.

"The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all " ..We're left to decide what that would have meant... Ned does consider Mance an enemy , or at least a threat to peace, but tells Cat , “Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear.” (They're secure in WF and Ned is equal to "dealing with" Mance.)

Benjen is unsure about Gared's tale, but like Mormont, having known Gared, and having heard other rumours, thinks it must be founded on something .. and worth investigation.

Benjen and Mance never met while both were in the NW. Benjen was at CB , Mance at the ST. But Mance knows what Benjen looks like since his last visit to WF.

Since we know word travels slowly, unless one has access to ravens, I suspect Mance was already planning to travel south to size up Ned and his sons.. (He was definitely not with Benjen when he recieved word. It was a bonus for Mance to get to size up the First Ranger as well.) .. but as a singer visiting other holdfasts and houses for news, he could have heard of Robert's trip north. Everyone would have been talking about it. It would have been major news.

Mance seems to have crossed the Wall regularly to keep abreast of things, since he tells Jon he's crossed the wall "half a hundred times" (yet he only left the NW 10 - 11 yrs. ago)... He presumably did not cross as a raider, since he has no such reputation.

Aside: I feel sure he must have adopted his "Abel" persona for these visits. Singers are welcomed, and when the same one shows up every quarter or so, for years ... he becomes trusted, safe to talk in front of and to banter with.

It seems to me an unpopular opinion is one thing, and an impossible opinion is something else. Whatever we think of snarks and grumkins..we've seen the Others and the white walkers.. so they at least, do exist.

There's no sign that Benjen, Ned and Mance were working together. Ned died not knowing the Others still existed. ...Like Mormont, Benjen must have realized the truth on his ranging, and like Mormont (and Jon) he's likely to have concluded that the wildlings were not the enemy they should be fighting....Mance probably realized a bit sooner.

[Clegane'sPup]

Excellent post Bemused.

When I wrote that I meant that my opinion of Martin's writing style is unpopular. The second part was an example.

I understand that mine is an unpopular opinion, but the author puts together his story in a disheveled manner. Readers are introduced to the Others in the prologue, BUT I was lead to believe that the wildings are the problem and the Others do not exist. As in Old Nan’s tales of snarks and grumpkins.

You will also note that I expanded the OP quote and I used a chapter reference. In no manner did I address anything about Benjen, Eddard and Mance working together.

What I would eventually like to see revealed is why Mance is so interested in the Starks. :cheers:

[Mance R Targaryen]

What I would eventually like to see revealed is why Mance is so interested in the Starks. :cheers:

Maybe cuz he loved Lyanna... Mance is Rhaegar! :drool:

[Clegane'sPup]

Maybe cuz he loved Lyanna... Mance is Rhaegar! :drool:

I almost choked on my Jamerson ... :smoking: :idea: I like the first part, second part not so much.

Edit: Whiskey.

[bemused]

Excellent post Bemused.

(1) When I wrote that I meant that my opinion of Martin's writing style is unpopular. The second part was an example.

(2) You will also note that I expanded the OP quote and I used a chapter reference. In no manner did I address anything about Benjen, Eddard and Mance working together.

(3) What I would eventually like to see revealed is why Mance is so interested in the Starks. :cheers:

(1) OK..I think I take your meaning now... but maybe your opinion is not really so unpopular ? I'm focusing on your use of "disheveled" to describe the way he puts his story together. For example..

Suppose we're looking at 2 photographs - each shows a person with messy hair, rumpled clothes and dirt on their faces. The first was taken of an ordinary person who had been through some disaster, or had to live on the streets. The second is from a fashion shoot ,or is of an actor in a play or movie. So, in the first, the messiness,and disorganization is random and genuine - no one planned it. But in the second, it's artful and intentionally deceptive - every hair, smudge and crease are placed just so. The subject is made to appear disheveled by a professional stylist or make-up person, while actually being expertly groomed.

I think George's writing is like photograph # 2 , and I think most readers would agree .. but maybe not every reader likes it. :dunno: (I do.)

(2) I know you never claimed that BJ, Mance and Ned were working together.. I was really replying at random to a number of posts in the thread. (in this case, addicted to snow's)

(3) :agree: Me too.. For now, I think he would have a sense that the Starks have often been the ones to thwart the former Kings-beyond-the-wall , and because of being in the NW himself, would have some awareness that Starks have always had a strong presence in the NW. I think that alone would make him curious about them, but I wouldn't rule out that he knows more.

I have some very strong suspicions about Mance ( by no means proven, and GRRM could write something tomorrow that would change my mind completely).. but they're not of the "Mance is Rhaegar" variety. I think he could be Qorgyle's bastard ...

[Clegane'sPup]

I have some very strong suspicions about Mance ( by no means proven, and GRRM could write something tomorrow that would change my mind completely).. but they're not of the "Mance is Rhaegar" variety. I think he could be Qorgyle's bastard ...

This is a Mance thread and the OP did say:

There are too many mysteries around this man. Leading to too many theories. Pink Letter, working for Others, working for Stark revival, Stark bastard, Rhaegar Targaryen etc.

If you are willing to share your suspicions please do. :drool:

[bemused]

Sure.. search isn't working right now but I can add a link to the thread later. Here are some of the things that started to come together in my mind.

1) Qorgyle's arms are three black scorpions on red ; Mance points out three red silk patches on his black cloak.

2) Qhorin tells Jon that the watch took Mance in when some wildlings were put to the sword, but Selyse tells Jon (no doubt based on Gerrick Kingsblood's version) that Mance is a bastard of some NW brother.

- - Lots of mystery here. I assume both stories have some part of the truth..Why were the widlings put to the sword ? Why was Mance taken in? Were there no other children with the group? If not, why not? Was Mance a hostage of that group of wildlings? ( I'm reminded of Osha suggesting that her group of wildlings take Bran to Mance ,as a hostage )..there are many possibilities...

3) Why was Mance given a last name when generally only nobles (of various levels) have last names ? Commoners have given names and/or some form of nickname , e.g. Fulk the flea, Owen the oaf.. or simply..."Giant" (Bedwyck). Mance's name is formulated in the manner of noble bastards in the south, e.g. Snow, Storm, Stone, Flowers, Sand, etc...Rayder (raider) could fit this pattern for a wildling ... but it's not a form they use themselves . They have descriptive secondary names (or titles) based on their attributes, deeds, appearance etc.. and they're not passed on or shared by siblings ... e.g. Harma Dogshead, Tormund Giantsbane, Raymun Redbeard, and so on. So Mance, as a child , is not likely to have gained a reputation as a raider. Perhaps he was being taken along on a raid.. but still, who would bother to give him a proper name, not just a nickname ?

4) So I think he's a noble bastard , and who among nobles at the wall is more likely to provide some sort of recognition ( even if disguised) to his bastard, than a Dornishman ? (Knowing the Dornish attitudes to paramours and bastards, generally.)

5) And I think there are signs that Mance was being groomed for leadership. He went to WF with Qorgyle, but Qorgyle would have had to go out of his way to get Mance from the Shadow Tower first..

That's a skim.. but I think you can see where I'm going. (and don't forget "The Dornishman's Wife" ;))

[Clegane'sPup]

Usually I am in agreement with your insights. This one not so much.

I get the Dornishman’s wife reference since House Qorgyle is located in Dorne. The sigil is 3 black scorpions on red background. Actually that does not match Mance’s cloak because the woman sewed up the tears with scarlet silk from Asshai […]

My impression is that Mance is educated, is knowledgeable about customs south of the Wall and possesses leadership skills.

As it is told in ASOS p101-104pb: Mance rides with Qorgyle to WF. As Mance is telling the story Jon remembers Mance as young, even though Jon himself was a child.

At some point Mance becomes a Ranger for Shadow Tower. Mallister is in charge @ Shadow Tower with Halfhand as his second. Shadow Tower is where Mance deserts.

The best info I have is the discussion between Mance and Jon in ASOS p101-104pb.

This is why I said the authors style is disheveled. There are blurbs and snippets laced throughout the books about Mance. One being why Osha would say that Mance would pay to have young Bran Stark as his hostage. Another being, Halfhand telling Jon his story about how Mance was taken in by the NW.

I do thank you for sharing your suspicions. Hopefully Martin will tell me more about Mance in WOW.

As an aside, I am constantly reminded that I know nothing. :blushing:

[bemused]

Well, that was just a skim.. if the search was working, I'd link you to a thread I started which goes into more detail..

But just for example.. Cadet families or breakaway families (e.g. the Blackfyres ,founded by a legitimized bastard) often keep the same arms ,but reverse the colours. (Targ- 3 headed red dragon on black...BF- 3 headed black dragon on red). House Qorgyle has three black scorpions on Red. When Mance shows his cloak to Jon, he points out three red patches on his black cloak ( " See? Here, here and here") - a rough reversal of Qorgyle's arms.

I think Mance would have been sent to the Shadow Tower quite early on 1) to keep him at arms length to avoid suspicion, and 2) because Dennis Mallister is educated and courtly, a more lordly refined example than Cotter Pyke.

I'm quite sure it would have been ordered that he be given an education by the maester. Maester Aemon might have been responsible for the first stage. Every 2 days LC Qorgyle sent a ranging to the shadow tower, (every 3 days to Eastwatch) It would have been easy to get reports on Mance's progress without letting on that Mance was his son. (The story Qhorin tells Jon is the version that was told to the NW, generally. It wouldn't be good for morale if the LC himself had fathered a bastard while in the NW. The story Selyse tells must have come from Gerrick Kingsblood who would have no reason to lie about Mance's origins.)

The Lord Commander resides at Castle Black, but when Qorgyle went to see Ned he "rode south from the Shadow Tower". That means he must have gone there (out of his way) specifically to get Mance, so he could meet Ned ...which suggests that Mance was being groomed for command.

Jon was a child (probably about 5)when Mance visited, but Mance wasn't. Later, the 15 or 16 yr. old Jon (approx.) remembers, looking back, that Mance was young..compared to Qorgyle (whom even Mance calls old)..compared to the Mance Jon was now talking to ... possibly compared to the other men with Qorgyle. Judging by the memory, Mance seems old enough to be amused by Jon and Robb's naughty game , but young enough not to reprimand them (He swears not to tell). I think he was probably about 20, or early 20's. .. maybe very late teens, but I don't think so, because Mormont had been LC for 11 yrs when he died. Mance has only been away from the NW for 11 yrs or so when Jon meets him beyond the wall , but he definitely appears middle-aged.

Mance left the wall during Qorgyle's tenure (???), but during that last year was when he visited WF. That must have been a very eventful year for Mance - the visit to WF, the attack by the shadow cat, leaving the NW and Qorgyle's death must all have happened in that year.

I came to these conclusions by comparing dates. Jon and Robb were born in 283 AC. Now surely no-one would think it was OK for the two boys to be playing on the wallwalk if they were under 5 (and anyway, if they were under 5, could they have piled up all that snow over the gate to dump on adults down below?)

But Mormont succeeded Qorgyle as LC in 288 AC..when Jon was 5.

Up until yesterday, the wiki told us that Mance left the NW while Qorgyle was LC..I'm not sure why it doesn't tell us, now. (I'll have to double check exactly what Mormont says to Jon.)... but I know Mormont says he never met him (and he may say Mance left before his(Mormont's) time.)

I think that Osha says something like Think what Mance would give, to have Bran for a hostage. Maybe not the same as pay... honour for the captors, maybe ? Useful to Mance as a bargaining chip to get his people south? By that time the wildlings knew the Others were stirring.

If I can search out the link, I will and also post it if I find the Mormont quote.

[bemused]

OK, I'll correct myself, now. ;) (we all know nothing..)

Obviously, the wiki was changed because it's not clear who was LC when Mance left.

Mormont tells Jon..

"I knew Mance Rayder, Jon. He is an oathbreaker, yes... but he has eyes to see, and no man has ever dared to name him faintheart.”

.. but I don't think that makes a great difference to the Mance/Qorgyle hypothesis.

The problem is that GRRM has been very tricky with time and numbers to keep things from being quite clear ("disheveled", as you say .. on purpose). We don't know when Mormont joined the Watch .. but he wouldn't have become LC right away, and probably knew Mance from before he ever became LC. They were probably both rangers.

It was Benjen and Mance who never met. Mance tells Jon...

When your father learned the king was coming, he sent word to his brother Benjen on the Wall, so he might come down for the feast. There is more commerce between the black brothers and the free folk than you know, and soon enough word came to my ears as well. It was too choice a chance to resist. Your uncle did not know me by sight, so I had no fear from that quarter, and I did not think your father was like to remember a young crow he’d met briefly years before. I wanted to see this Robert with my own eyes, king to king, and get the measure of your uncle Benjen as well. He was First Ranger by then, and the bane of all my people.

Again, we don't know when Benjen joined the watch. Most people assume it was "soon" after Ned returned (seems reasonable) , but how soon is that ? It might be months, or easily as much as a year or two after... Nor do we know how old Mance was when he was taken.. But it makes me think that Mance was never stationed at CB or only for a very brief time.. And it makes it all the more curious that Qorgyle didn't take Benjen with him to WF, as a courtesy, but went to the ST first, and took Mance with him..

(The only other clue we might have is when Mormont refuses to send Jon in Tyrions escort when Tyrion leaves the wall, basically saying it's too soon. Jon needs to put WF behind him and form bonds at the wall. So maybe Benjen was a very recent recruit in 287-288. He and Jon appear to be well bonded, and all the Stark children seem fond of him. So maybe he was at WF until Jon was 4 or 5. His visits home can't have been very frequent after joining the Watch. This raises more questions about Benjen... )

If Mance's cloak and the freedom it represents really was the reason he left the wall, it still can't have been long after Mormont became LC, because it would take years to pull the wildlings together the way he did, and even if he exaggerates the number of times he's crossed the wall (maybe it wasn't "half a hundred" but 45 or 40.. or maybe it was 50, but he's counting the going and coming back separately..) I don't think he would be doing that more than 2 - 4 times a year, or when would he have been consolidating the various tribes? How is it that he and Benjen could not have met, when we know rangers rendezvous to compare information, or travel to each other's stations on a regular basis ? I think Mance is a great character, but he is only human. So I think 10 yrs. or so is a likely estimate of when he defected.

And because of the boys' ages, 288 is the best estimate for Qorgyle's WF visit, with 287 as an absolute outside possibility. Assuming Mance is truthful (and I think he mostly is) it still means that many of the key facts we know about Mance - WF visit, shadow cat, desertion - all happened in a very short space of time - within a year.. or two, at most.

[Clegane'sPup]

Denys Mallister (using the Wiki as source, has been commander at Shadow Tower for 33 years). I assume that implies he has been at the wall for a loooooooong time.

ASOS Samwell V/Chapter 78, Mallister says: At the last choosing I stepped gratefully aside when Mormont’s name was offered, just as I had for Qorgyle at the choosing before that.

ASOS JonXII p1096pb Mallister says to Jon […] When Qorgyle was chosen, I told myself, “No matter he has been on the wall longer than you have, your time will come”. […] Your uncle was a great man. Your lord father and his father as well.

I think Mallister and Halfhand trained Mance, don’t think that Mance is Qorgyle’s son though.

There is a bit of a gap in the Lord Commanders of the NW, unless Qorgyle was named LC shortly after Rivers went missing in 252AC. Which would mean that Qorgyle lead the NW for 36 years. Which is sort of backed up by Mallister.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lord_Commander_of_the_Night%27s_Watch

• Jon Snow, 998th Lord Commander, elected in 300 AC by an overwhelming margin. Previously he served as Lord Commander Mormont's personal steward and took command of the defense of the Wall during the Battle of Castle Black.
  
• Jeor Mormont, 997th Lord Commander, elected in 288 AC, shortly after he joined the Night's Watch, called 'the Old Bear'. Led the great ranging in 299 AC; killed by his own men in the mutiny at Craster's Keep.
  

 Lord Commander Qorgyle, 996th Lord Commander. He was of House Qorgyle, although his first name is never given. He died in 288 AC.

 Brynden Rivers, called 'Bloodraven', a Great Bastard of Aegon IV Targaryen and Hand of the King of Aerys I Targaryen. Brynden was arrested by Aegon V after the Great Council of 233, for the murder of Aenys Blackfyre. He was sentenced to death but was allowed to go to the Wall in 233 AC with his great nephew Aemon and several of the Raven's Teeth. He was elected to the post of Lord Commander in 239 AC, but disappeared on a ranging in 252 AC.

Back to Mance. ACOK Jon VII/Chapter 53

Jon is talking with Halfhand:

She told me Mance would take me, if I ran with her.

She told you true.

She even claimed we were kin. She told me a story […]

[…] of Bael the Bard and the rose of WF […] Mance would sing of it of old, when he came back from ranging […]

You knew him?

We all knew him. His [Halfhand] voice was sad.

They were friends as well as brothers, Jon realized […]

He [Mance] was wilding born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword.

Brings us to ASOS Jon I/Chapter 7 Mance telling Jon the story of when Mance was at WF and also the story of his cloak, which was taken away at Shadow Tower . Mance says, “I left the next day.”

I enjoy your insights. I am merely sharing info.

BTW you were correct; the word was give not pay.

[bemused]

Yes, it's all very interesting. I researched the same things earlier..

I must say that Bloodraven is my second favourite candidate for Mance's father (there's a lot of symbolism that would fit nicely), except that BR would have been 77 when he disappeared in 252, and though Mance is definitely middle aged, I don't think he's quite as old as 48. He's still very agile - in his fight with Jon and in WF as Abel.

I know it's not impossible, because we don't know when Bloodraven went to the CoTF, or how long he's been settled with the tree. If Mance was his son, born the year he disappeared or even 2 or 3 yrs. later, he would have been in his thirties when he visited WF in 288 (or, if you like 287) and Jon would not remember him as a young ranger.

I agree the question is still open , but Qorgyle is my favorite , right now.