A+J=T v. 4

[Lost Melnibonean]

If Tyrion ends up being Aerys's son it would be rather funny if it was revealed before R+L=J since so many dislike this theory because it would be silly to have two secret Targaryens.

Not that this could happen (unless the show reveals things first in different eoisodes, but I rather would not want show revealing things), since they both would have to be revealed in the next book. Unless GRRM is planning on 8 books.

Eggs have been hatching ever since Jon discovered that Aemon was a Targaryen. House Baratheon, Egg, Brown Ben, Rennifer, John the Fiddler, and Young Griff were all revealed to have a drop or two o' dragon blood, and Varys and Illyrio and Jon are highly suspected. Why would AJT, or anyone else for that matter, be so much more shocking?

[UnmaskedLurker]

With respect to "Secret Targs" issue, I think there is a fundamental difference between Jon/Tyrion and every other example named (except maybe fAegon in a slightly different way). While the readers might not have known of the existence of these people with Targ blood, their Targ ancestry was not a secret "in-story" to themselves or others who knew them. People might not have know that the three-eyed crow was Bloodraven -- or even that the three-eyed crow exists at all (only Bran and his companions seem to know anything about his existence) -- but general knowledge accepts that Bloodraven is a Targ bastard who went to the Wall, became LC and eventually disappeared. Similarly, Aemon's identity as a Targ was not a secret, even if Jon and the readers did not know immediately. Everyone knew of the Baratheon's Targ heritage -- it was not a secret. Similarly, BBP's Targ ancestry was not a secret even if the readers did not know when he is initially introduced.

But no one (or almost no one) knows that Jon or Tyrion have Targ ancestry (assuming they do). In that sense, they are the only secret Targs. Now YG is a special case, as we don't know if he is the "real" Aegon or maybe a Blackfyre. If he is the "real" Aegon, then his survival from the rebellion was kept secret, but again, everyone knew that Rhaegar's son was a Targ. If he turns out to be a Blackfyre (as I suspect), then he sort of is a secret Targ in that his real identity was kept a secret, likely even from himself. But that revelation just changes his identity from one kind of Targ to a different kind of Targ.

But if Jon and Tyrion are both Targs (or Targ bastards), then there would be two (and only two) "secret" Targs who no one really knew were Targs until late in the series when the "big reveal" occurs. But I believe that the 3HD prophecy requires three Targ descendants to be the three heads. If I am right, then we need these two to be secret Targs because all the other candidates with Targ blood can be eliminated by process of elimination from contention to be a head of the dragon (other, of course, than Dany who is the other head). So GRRM needed there to be two secret Targs -- and so he wrote the story that way -- get over it.

[Mithras]

...So GRRM needed there to be two secret Targs -- and so he wrote the story that way -- get over it.

Not at all. There is not even the slightest hint of Tyrion being a Targ bastard in the released draft of George whereas R+L=J is as good as confirmed. There is only one secret Targ whose identity is put forward as one of the central mysteries of the series.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Not at all. There is not even the slightest hint of Tyrion being a Targ bastard in the released draft of George whereas R+L=J is as good as confirmed. There is only one secret Targ whose identity is put forward as one of the central mysteries of the series.

Yes, I know where you stand. You don't agree that 3HD means three Targs. So you don't need a third secret Targ. I think you are incorrect -- I think the 3HD is three different characters -- so there needs to be another secret Targ (because none of the other characters with Targ blood work as a head of the dragon). As to the hints that Tyrion is a Targ -- read the OP (which hopefully you have already done). I know it won't convince you, but GRRM certainly has given many hints in favor. Even if Tyrion is not a Targ, the hints are still there and they are still hints (even if they turn out to be "false" clues). As to your reference to the "released draft" -- I am not entirely sure what you mean, but if you are talking about the publisher treatment in which there was going to be a love triangle with Jon/Arya/Tyrion and Sansa was going to have Joffrey's baby -- I don't think that treatment means anything in regards to the likelihood that Tyrion is a Targ bastard. It is irrelevant. GRRM made fundamental changes to the story from that treatment.

[Jô Maltese]

^ No dragon with 3 heads in the early draft, so no need for a 3rd Targ.

[UnmaskedLurker]

JM -- Yes, my point exactly.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

With respect to "Secret Targs" issue, I think there is a fundamental difference between Jon/Tyrion and every other example named (except maybe fAegon in a slightly different way). While the readers might not have known of the existence of these people with Targ blood, their Targ ancestry was not a secret "in-story" to themselves or others who knew them. People might not have know that the three-eyed crow was Bloodraven -- or even that the three-eyed crow exists at all (only Bran and his companions seem to know anything about his existence) -- but general knowledge accepts that Bloodraven is a Targ bastard who went to the Wall, became LC and eventually disappeared. Similarly, Aemon's identity as a Targ was not a secret, even if Jon and the readers did not know immediately. Everyone knew of the Baratheon's Targ heritage -- it was not a secret. Similarly, BBP's Targ ancestry was not a secret even if the readers did not know when he is initially introduced.

But no one (or almost no one) knows that Jon or Tyrion have Targ ancestry (assuming they do). In that sense, they are the only secret Targs. Now YG is a special case, as we don't know if he is the "real" Aegon or maybe a Blackfyre. If he is the "real" Aegon, then his survival from the rebellion was kept secret, but again, everyone knew that Rhaegar's son was a Targ. If he turns out to be a Blackfyre (as I suspect), then he sort of is a secret Targ in that his real identity was kept a secret, likely even from himself. But that revelation just changes his identity from one kind of Targ to a different kind of Targ.

But if Jon and Tyrion are both Targs (or Targ bastards), then there would be two (and only two) "secret" Targs who no one really knew were Targs until late in the series when the "big reveal" occurs. But I believe that the 3HD prophecy requires three Targ descendants to be the three heads. If I am right, then we need these two to be secret Targs because all the other candidates with Targ blood can be eliminated by process of elimination from contention to be a head of the dragon (other, of course, than Dany who is the other head). So GRRM needed there to be two secret Targs -- and so he wrote the story that way -- get over it.

Yes well said. Even IF the 3HD theory is only about one person (Jon)......There are still 3 literal dragons which all need riders. We know there is going to be riders on all three for there to be a 'dance' as Teora foresaw. I am pretty sure GRRM has confirmed that some of the dragons will have more then 1 rider before the end. And we also know that only Targaryens ride dragons.

So ipso facto there must be at least one more rider besides Dany and Jon, who has BOTD. Also It is very clear that there is no way to get Viserion and Rhaegal to Westeros without riders. they are in Meereen waiting to be rode and controlled, they are useless without riders, so obviously there are 2 people in or around Meereen who will be riding them back to Westeros. It's kind of just common sense at this point, there really are not a ton of options out of the characters who are already in SB. BBP and Tyrion are the only ones. Even if Vic manages to steal one with the horn we still need one more rider in SB.

My prediction: Tyrion and BBP find Viserion, BBP rides him first and dies, then Tyrion takes the reins.

[Mithras]

There are still 3 literal dragons which all need riders.

Dragons can be killed.

[Mithras]

I think the 3HD is three different characters -- so there needs to be another secret Targ (because none of the other characters with Targ blood work as a head of the dragon).

There are perhaps many characters with Targaryen blood. And there is one our beloved Young Griff. Red or Black, he has good deal of Targaryen blood. Why not any of them can qualify as one of the heads (assuming 3 heads=3 people)? Why do you have to make another secret Targ theory?

[Suzanna Stormborn]

GRRM confirmed that dragons make it to the end of the last book, so for the purpose of this discussion, all 3 dragons are relevant.

GRRM is the one who hid the Targs in the story, we are merely the ones who have spotted it.

[Mithras]

GRRM confirmed that dragons make it to the end of the last book, so for the purpose of this discussion, all 3 dragons are relevant.

GRRM is the one who hid the Targs in the story, we are merely the ones who have spotted it.

Where did he do that?

[GeorgeIAF]

What about Tyrion not getting the bloody flux and greyscale ? Just like Dany. :)

[Mithras]

What about Tyrion not getting the bloody flux and greyscale ? Just like Dany. :)

It is possible that he caught greyscale and he is turning to stone from the inside as Haldon told him. So, we cannot say that he didnot catch greyscale.

[UnmaskedLurker]

There are perhaps many characters with Targaryen blood. And there is one our beloved Young Griff. Red or Black, he has good deal of Targaryen blood. Why not any of them can qualify as one of the heads (assuming 3 heads=3 people)? Why do you have to make another secret Targ theory?

I actually have written in the past about why I don't think any of the other candidates with Targ blood qualify as a realistic potential head of the dragon. Basically, I believe that the three heads of the dragon are prophecized to be the leaders of the Battle for the Dawn 2.0. These three are the main characters of the story. The others with Targ blood are not POV characters and clearly are not the main characters in the series. Take Aegon, for example (the candidate with the 4th most votes when I polled about who people thought are the 3 heads, Dany having the most, then Jon and then Tyrion). If two of the heads are Dany and Jon -- characters who have been part of the story from the beginning, with POV chapters and obviously the central characters in their story lines -- and then the third is Aegon -- a character who is not introduced until more than half way through the series who the readers never really get to know well and who is not a POV character -- then GRRM has made a very strange choice. I just do not think it is likely that GRRM adds this new character to be the third head so late in the series.

What makes more sense to me is that one of the central POV characters is the third head. And none of them is a known Targ, so any of them would have to be a "secret" Targ if the 3 heads must have Targ blood, as I believe they do. And, yes, I am aware that GRRM said that the third head is not "necessarily" a Targ. I interpret that statement as a sly reference to Tyrion technically not being a Targ because he is a bastard. So of the main characters, really the only one that makes sense as the third head is Tyrion. And the clues in the OP supporting him being a Targ bastard simply confirm the logic. In particular, the similarities among Jon, Dany and Tyrion is the clue that initial convinced me they are the 3 heads of the dragon. Once I made that conclusion, the logic that Tyrion has to be of Targ blood started to fall into place and then I found the original A+J=T thread and I became convinced.

[Lord Varys]

Dragons can also be not killed. And men die, too. Jon Snow is dying for four years now, isn't he?

[Mithras]

I actually have written in the past about why I don't think any of the other candidates with Targ blood qualify as a realistic potential head of the dragon. Basically, I believe that the three heads of the dragon are prophecized to be the leaders of the Battle for the Dawn 2.0. These three are the main characters of the story. The others with Targ blood are not POV characters and clearly are not the main characters in the series. Take Aegon, for example (the candidate with the 4th most votes when I polled about who people thought are the 3 heads, Dany having the most, then Jon and then Tyrion). If two of the heads are Dany and Jon -- characters who have been part of the story from the beginning, with POV chapters and obviously the central characters in their story lines -- and then the third is Aegon -- a character who is not introduced until more than half way through the series who the readers never really get to know well and who is not a POV character -- then GRRM has made a very strange choice. I just do not think it is likely that GRRM adds this new character to be the third head so late in the series.

What makes more sense to me is that one of the central POV characters is the third head. And none of them is a known Targ, so any of them would have to be a "secret" Targ if the 3 heads must have Targ blood, as I believe they do. And, yes, I am aware that GRRM said that the third head is not "necessarily" a Targ. I interpret that statement as a sly reference to Tyrion technically not being a Targ because he is a bastard. So of the main characters, really the only one that makes sense as the third head is Tyrion. And the clues in the OP supporting him being a Targ bastard simply confirm the logic. In particular, the similarities among Jon, Dany and Tyrion is the clue that initial convinced me they are the 3 heads of the dragon. Once I made that conclusion, the logic that Tyrion has to be of Targ blood started to fall into place and then I found the original A+J=T thread and I became convinced.

What works here is your circular logic and confirmation bias. You choose to interpret

1. Three heads = Three dragonriders = Three people with Targaryen blood

2. Third head is not necessarily a Targ

in accordance with A+J=T and then claim that these lead to A+J=T and then look for clues for A+J=T which no doubt you can find dozens with such line of thought (though even you admit that these clues do not mean anything on their own).

For example the first thing "the third head is not necessarily a Targaryen" should imply is that whatever/whoever the third head is, it should not be a Targaryen. Assuming that this one should be among the major POVs, Tyrion as a Lannister or Bran can qualify without having any Targaryen blood assuming we go with "three heads = three people".

And we do not even know what "The dragon has three heads" is or where does it come from. But I remember, you already had an interpretation such that A+J=T holds.

[Lord Varys]

Why shouldn't we go with three dragon heads as three dragonriders as the default interpretation?

Jon Snow isn't a Targaryen, by the way. He is a Snow, Eddard Stark's acknowledged bastard. Tyrion Lannister isn't a Targaryen either, he is Tywin Lannister's recognized son. Their biological fathers or mothers do not necessarily change that. They certainly haven't up to this point. And who knows, perhaps Jon Snow is going to reject his Targaryen name and heritage even if he learns that he Rhaegar's son and continues to call himself Jon Snow (even if he is actually Aemon Targaryen). And perhaps Tyrion Lannister sheds his Lannister identity and adopts the name and style of Tyrion Hill, Tyrion Truefyre, or Tyrion Targaryen.

[Mithras]

“Bastards are not allowed to damage young princes,”

Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son.

“More likely they were hiding under the snow. Snow, Ned!”

If you cannot find such powerful clues from AGoT to imply A+J=T, I suggest you to not waste your time.

You claim that Tyrion’s black eye is coming from Betha Blackwood.

At his side stood the Lord Tytos Blackwood, a hard pike of a man with close-cropped salt-and-pepper whiskers and a hook nose. His bright yellow armor was inlaid with jet in elaborate vine-and-leaf patterns, and a cloak sewn from raven feathers draped his thin shoulders.

This is the description of Lord Tytos Blackwood from AGoT, the one and only Blackwood we have seen in AGoT.

Can you point me where is the mention of the black eyes of the Blackwoods? In fact, I don’t remember any of the three Blackwoods we saw in the series (Tytos, Lucas, Hoster) are described to have black eyes ever.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Mithras--

Let me explain why I am not engaging in circular logic. I believe that 3HD makes sense only if all 3 have Targ blood. While you state, correctly, that we don't completely know what the phrase means -- we know that people who read the prophecy have said that the dragon has three heads. The most reasonable interpretation of this language is that 3 people who are of House Targ will be the leaders of the Battle for the Dawn 2.0 (and ride the three dragons into battle). That is how I understand that phrase. No circular logic -- just direct logic coming from the context of the language and the context of the prophecy.

I then used other logical inferences that I briefly summarized above to conclude that Tyrion is the third head. Again, no circular logic -- just deductive reasoning from the available clues.

What you seem to be suggesting is circular logic is that you are claiming I used GRRM's statement about the third head not necessarily being a Targ as evidence in favor of Tryion. I did no such thing. That statement is not evidence in favor of Tyrion as third head. The issue is whether that statement eliminates Tyrion, if he is the third head, from being a Targ bastard. That is the claim I have heard some people make. That if Tyrion is the third head, then he is not a Targ bastard because GRRM stated that the third head is not a Targ. My point is that GRRM's statement does no such thing. GRRM's statement is completely consistent with Tyrion as Targ bastard because technically, Tyrion would be considered a Hill and not a Targaryen.

So again, no circular logic. I merely had to check my logic to make sure that GRRM's statement did not serve to contradict my conclusions. And I believe his statement does not contradict my conclusions. The statement would be equally consistent with Tyrion as the third head and being 100% Lannister or Bran as third head and being 100% Stark (Stark/Tully). But I discount those conclusion for other reasons -- some of which I outlined above, The point is that as long as my conclusions are not necessarily inconsistent with GRRM's statement, his statement is not proof against the ATJ theory (as some have suggested that it is). That was the only point I was making by referencing that SSM. I certainly was not suggesting that the SSM was supporting logic for the AJT theory -- only that it is not really evidence against the theory (and thus irrelevant to the analysis).

[UnmaskedLurker]

“Bastards are not allowed to damage young princes,”

Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son.

“More likely they were hiding under the snow. Snow, Ned!”

If you cannot find such powerful clues from AGoT to imply A+J=T, I suggest you to not waste your time.

You claim that Tyrion’s black eye is coming from Betha Blackwood.

At his side stood the Lord Tytos Blackwood, a hard pike of a man with close-cropped salt-and-pepper whiskers and a hook nose. His bright yellow armor was inlaid with jet in elaborate vine-and-leaf patterns, and a cloak sewn from raven feathers draped his thin shoulders.

This is the description of Lord Tytos Blackwood from AGoT, the one and only Blackwood we have seen in AGoT.

Can you point me where is the mention of the black eyes of the Blackwoods? In fact, I don’t remember any of the three Blackwoods we saw in the series (Tytos, Lucas, Hoster) are described to have black eyes ever.

I don't think anyone claimed the black eye is from the Blackwoods. Go back to the OP. Tyrion's streaks of black hair are from the Blackwoods. And Betha Blackwood, the grandmother to Aerys, is described in WOIAF as having black hair. No one in Tywin's or Joanna's lineage is described as having any black hair.

The black eye is noted simply as being mismatched, which is a similarity to Shiera, a Targ bastard. The mismatched eye is not even cited as an inherited trait -- merely an author-dropped clue for the observant reader.