R+L=J v.142

[Avalatis]

Did you look at my signature?

Lol. Ah. I think the real troll is long gone. Though Lord Varys does try my patience at times, which is why I avoid responding to those posts. He'll lead you along with good textual evidence (which is often not the complete picture) then suddenly drop some fan fiction about Lyanna being a heroine who took charge at the tower and had the 3 kingsguard whipped and doing everything she wanted.

[MtnLion]

Lol. Ah. I think the real troll is long gone. Though Lord Varys does try my patience at times, which is why I avoid responding to those posts. He'll lead you along with good textual evidence (which is often not the complete picture) then suddenly drop some fan fiction about Lyanna being a heroine who took charge at the tower and had the 3 kingsguard whipped and doing everything she wanted.

Yep, lots of fanfiction flying about, and presented as though it is factual. Beware of getting hit by it . . . eww.

[J. Stargaryen]

Finally, one speculation I have read is that Hightower was able to get Rhaegar to go back to KL because Aerys sent the message that he would promise Rhaegar that if he died in battle, Aerys would name Aegon as heir. If Hightower passed such a message to Rhaegar, Hightower might not consider that Aerys would go back on his word and name Viserys. Of course, this possibility is mere speculation, but I am simply giving examples for why the KG might have considered Jon to be King and not thought Viserys to be a potential rival claimant.

This was my idea, and while it's quite speculative, it would seem to explain the motives of all parties involved. Whether people want to admit it or not, or even whether it ultimately proves to be true or not, the Jon as heir/king explanation is a good one, based on what we know or think we know.

LV--

You are engaging in a case of projection -- accusing me of engaging in the behavior you are actually the one engaging in.

Gotta say, I had the same thought reading his posts. And frankly, some of his personal comments about you were pure trash. Whether someone agrees with you or not, you've done a good job explaining and justifying your position. At least to my eyes. I can't speak for anyone else, but I thought your point about Rhaenyra was well made, too.

[Lord Varys]

JS,

your idea about Aegon being named heir unfortunately is at odds with both Aerys' overall feelings of contempt towards Rhaegar's half-Dornish children (exemplified in Rhaenys 'smelling Dornish'), his overall attitude towards (presumed) traitors ('burn them' - which should include Rhaegar himself) as well as the fact that Aerys did not name Aegon his heir after Rhaegar's death.

It may not logically be impossible but it is at odds with many things we do know, and there a ton of much better (and more elegant) explanations as to why Rhaegar agreed to return to the capital. Care to hear them?

- Ser Gerold could have been under orders and willing (i.e. have brought sufficient men to do the deed) to kill the pregnant Lyanna should Rhaegar not comply with Aerys' demands.

- Aerys threatened to burn Elia and her children alive should Rhaegar not return, and Ser Gerold told Rhaegar as much.

- Aerys was desperate and named Rhaegar Lord Protector of the Realm if he would return and crush the rebels.

- Rhaegar only learned how dire the situation had become from Ser Gerold - he never intended to let the Realm and dynasty crumble due to his inaction and gladly agreed to take up his responsibilities as heir to the throne as soon as Ser Gerold reached.

As to fan fiction, lets assess some of the fairy-tales and wishful thinking a lot of people seem to entertain here for no good reason at all.

1. The primary duty of the Kingsguard

The primary duty of the Kingsguard - its very purpose - is to protect the king. But this does not mean they protect the king all the time, or that their order usually only protects the king. We know that it is the king who specifies the duties of the king, not the Kingsguard, and certainly not the Kingsguard interpreting the deeper meaning of their own vows. There is no textual evidence about any of the following:

- That the primary duty of the Kingsguard can be at odds with any other duty of the Kingsguard. The king or those speaking for the king decide how he is protected and served. Not the Kingsguard (unless a KG is a member of the royal family himself and/or serving his king as regent or Hand).

- That the fact that time is perceived as linear somehow enables us to conclude/assert that the vows a Kingsguard usually swears first are somehow more important than others (i.e. 'primary'). They could all be considered equally important and binding (just as the Christian god is a trinity and has a bunch of properties that are mutually exclusive to a sane mind), and there is a pretty big hint that Ser Duncan the Tall died saving somebody who was not the king as this/those person(s) seemed to have survived Summerhall while the king died (which opens up the possibility that Dunk abandoned his king to the flames, possibly while obeying Egg's final order).

- That the Kingsguard is allowed/has the authority/is expected to abandon any duties/missions a king/prince with authority has given them after the king or prince in question has died (e.g. Arys Oakheart not double-checking with Lord Tywin after he Hand become Joffrey's Hand whether he should continue to protect Myrcella, nor him double-checking with King Tommen about his mission after Joffrey's death)

- That the primary duty of the Kingsguard (or any duty of the Kingsguard) includes to uphold the succession the way the person formulating sees it (that is just a baseless assertion) if a previous king dies without a clear heir.

- That the Kingsguard always has to see to the protection of the king personally (the king certainly could decide that he does not want his KG around, or assign all his KG to other people - family members, mistresses, bastards, second cousins), and that Kingsguard can object to the wishes of the king insofar as his security is concerned (this is a medieval setting with a king who has absolute power in his castle, not a modern-day security where Secret Service agents can tell the President what to do when they think he endangers his own life).

- That the Kingsguard have the right/authority to overwrite/ignore the wishes of a member of the royal family/a person another member of the royal family has assigned them to if they think the actions of that member of the royal endangers the life of her own child which does guys may or may not consider 'the true king'. Phrased differently (and not specifically designed to fit the Lyanna situation): There is no textual evidence that the Kingsguard has the right to refuse the order of any member of the royal family/person they are charged to protect by the king's orders (could be a bastard) under any circumstances (unless, I imagine, if that person would command them to kill the king himself).

2. Dream stuff

Ned Stark dreams an old dream. It is sort of based on reality in the sense that the people showing up in there also featured in the real world version of events. That's it. There is no textual evidence for the following:

- That the dream conversation between Ned and the knights at the tower took place the way it is retold in the dream. We don't know to which degree it is based on reality, how accurate Ned Stark's imagination is, whether the dream was constructed by his subconscious with hindsight knowledge only using his (accurate or inaccurate) memory of events as they took place there (the latter would hardly make sense as people who dream are not suddenly back in time just because they dream of past events, and we don't know when Ned Stark first dreamed this old dream - it could have been the very night after the events depicted therein or a year or two later).

- We can't know what the Kingsguard knights knew prior to Ned's arrival about events unfolding at the Trident and at KL. If we were as stupid as taking the dreams at face value (which we aren't) then we still don't know what was spoken before the dream conversation began as it does not seem that the first word spoken in the dream was the actual first word of the real world conversation it is or might be based on. Eddard Stark could have been their source on everything they know about Rhaegar's death, the Sack, and the whereabouts of Viserys III and the Queen Dowager.

- We can't know that the vow the knights are referring to is the Kingsguard vow. If it was the Kingsguard vow, we can't know that it they are intending to imply that they are defending 'their king' on their own terms right now or that they are guarding the tower as Kingsguard because they are obeying an order they received from Rhaegar (or Aerys, for whatever reason one could come up with). It could be another vow they swore to Rhaegar - or to each other after Rhaegar's departure - to protect the tower/its inhabitants.

[J. Stargaryen]

JS,

your idea about Aegon being named heir unfortunately is at odds with both Aerys' overall feelings of contempt towards Rhaegar's half-Dornish children (exemplified in Rhaenys 'smelling Dornish'), his overall attitude towards (presumed) traitors ('burn them' - which should include Rhaegar himself) as well as the fact that Aerys did not name Aegon his heir after Rhaegar's death.

It may not logically be impossible but it is at odds with many things we do know, and there a ton of much better (and more elegant) explanations as to why Rhaegar agreed to return to the capital. Care to hear them?

- Ser Gerold could have been under orders and willing (i.e. have brought sufficient men to do the deed) to kill the pregnant Lyanna should Rhaegar not comply with Aerys' demands.

- Aerys threatened to burn Elia and her children alive should Rhaegar not return, and Ser Gerold told Rhaegar as much.

- Aerys was desperate and named Rhaegar Lord Protector of the Realm if he would return and crush the rebels.

- Rhaegar only learned how dire the situation had become from Ser Gerold - he never intended to let the Realm and dynasty crumble due to his inaction and gladly agreed to take up his responsibilities as heir to the throne as soon as Ser Gerold reached.

I think what's really unfortunate is that you don't recognize the contradiction in your supposedly better and more elegant solutions. The idea of securing Aegon's place in the succession works as an enticement for Rhaegar's return. You then offer one up in the form of the title of Lord Protector, as a possibility. So why one but not the other? Aerys doesn't like Rhaegar's half-Dornish children -- So? Maybe that's why it wasn't his first option. But also, it's not that big of a deal for Aerys to offer this, considering he should have been expecting Aegon to eventually sit the IT anyway. It's a small concession from Aerys, but a big deal for Rhaegar, who thought his son was meant to be a king and tPtwP. Considering the 'disinheritance narrative' pushed in TWoIaF, I think Rhaegar would have realized that if he predeceased his father, that Aegon would not succeed him as crown prince. It might explain why he sat out the first part of the war. He couldn't risk dying, because he had to ensure Aegon's place in the succession.

You also use the argument that Aerys didn't in fact name Aegon the heir after Rhaegar's death. No kidding. That's part of the point. In my idea, the reason Aerys is so convinced that the Dornish betrayed Rhaegar is because they have a very clear cut motive for doing so, the Iron Throne. That way, with Rhaegar dead and Aegon now the crown prince, the Dornish only needed to eliminate Aerys to control the IT. Hence Aerys's decree in naming Viserys his heir. Haha Dornish! I've foiled your plans.

I don't know if this is the answer or not, but I sure as hell am not convinced otherwise by you declaring your argument to be better.

[corbon]

2. Dream stuff

Ned Stark dreams an old dream. It is sort of based on reality in the sense that the people showing up in there also featured in the real world version of events. That's it. There is no textual evidence for the following:

- That the dream conversation between Ned and the knights at the tower took place the way it is retold in the dream.

Sorry, I just gotta jump in here and point out the outright ridiculousness of this sort of claim.

The text we have inside the dream is, and is all, the textual evidence of how the conversation between Ned and the KG went.

Its not necessarily proof that it went exactly that way, but it is absolutely evidence it went that way.

Further, we have nothing (textually) on which to base reframing that conversation in any way.

As for the SSM about it being a dream and not entirely literal, there are plenty of parts of that scene (especially right at the beginning and after the conversation ended) that are clearly and obviously 'dream-false' and not to be taken literally.

Its pathetic how anyone who does not like the implications of things in the conversation feels free to dump the baby with the bathwater.

[The Missing Crannogman]

Sorry, I just gotta jump in here and point out the outright ridiculousness of this sort of claim.

The text we have inside the dream is, and is all, the textual evidence of how the conversation between Ned and the KG went.

Its not necessarily proof that it went exactly that way, but it is absolutely evidence it went that way.

Further, we have nothing (textually) on which to base reframing that conversation in any way.

As for the SSM about it being a dream and not entirely literal, there are plenty of parts of that scene (especially right at the beginning and after the conversation ended) that are clearly and obviously 'dream-false' and not to be taken literally.

Its pathetic how anyone who does not like the implications of things in the conversation feels free to dump the baby with the bathwater.

Actually no.

Near the end of the dream Ned is sad that it's come to blows between the two parties and that this battle must be fought. Upon waking however he's angry when he thinks about the fight that took place there, and doesn't think it's a good omen that he had that dream again (I.e he's afraid). Those are wildly different emotions that what he experiences in the dream. If things went down exactly like they did in the dream, why doesn't he feel the same emotions when he consciously thinks about the event after the dream?

[SFDanny]

Sorry, I just gotta jump in here and point out the outright ridiculousness of this sort of claim.

The text we have inside the dream is, and is all, the textual evidence of how the conversation between Ned and the KG went.

Its not necessarily proof that it went exactly that way, but it is absolutely evidence it went that way.

Further, we have nothing (textually) on which to base reframing that conversation in any way.

As for the SSM about it being a dream and not entirely literal, there are plenty of parts of that scene (especially right at the beginning and after the conversation ended) that are clearly and obviously 'dream-false' and not to be taken literally.

Its pathetic how anyone who does not like the implications of things in the conversation feels free to dump the baby with the bathwater.

I'd put it another way, corbon. We have plenty of evidence that what Ned dreams could have been what happened. All of what Ned dreams reflects what we know of in the non-dream world of Westeros regarding relative timing of events and the facts we know of the encounter at the tower of joy. Three against seven, Lyanna's death in a bed of blood and flowers, Ned and Howland being the only combatants who survive, etc. Ned's dream might be a accurate reflection of the dialogue section of the encounter. It also might be a reflection of what Ned still wonders about his fight there. He asks questions that reflect what he has to wonder about these three men and why they were there instead of the places he names, and why they fought him to the death. His dream may be only his way of trying to sort out the questions that still haunt him after all these years. All of which would suggests that the Kingsguard's answers to Ned's question may be what Ned thinks the answers might be, and not what they actually said. At this point we can't know which is true. I have always viewed, and continue to view, the dream as more a reflection of what happened than as Ned's search for answers, but I think a mixture of both is likely. My take on it, but I don't think it makes sense to tell those who view it as just a dream that they must be wrong. They might be right.

One thing else, I also should throw out here about the actual combat and Howland Reed's role in it. I don't know how many of the present day posters are aware of Happy Ent's "super warg" theory, but it is worth doing a search for his ideas about Reed. The essence of his theory is that Reed was his day's version of Bran's ability to warg into many different types of creatures. Happy Ent purposes that, like Bran with Hodor, he tries to control Dayne at a critical point of the combat allowing Ned to kill the Sword of the Morning. He also speculates that Reed is harmed by his own attempt to control another human being. I like to think of it as the "Man who shot Liberty Valance" scenario for those who love old westerns. But I encourage others to read his ideas. All speculation, but speculation by a very informed reader worthy of consideration.

[addicted to snow]

This was my idea, and while it's quite speculative, it would seem to explain the motives of all parties involved. Whether people want to admit it or not, or even whether it ultimately proves to be true or not, the Jon as heir/king explanation is a good one, based on what we know or think we know.

This is hard to argue against...

I just maintain that though I believe that R+L=J will prove accurate, there is some complication that we are missing.

---

I feel certain that Jon's future will be far more complex than most readers anticipate...

& I feel that Jon's origin might also be a bit more compile than we have been led to believe...

[The Missing Crannogman]

As to Lord Varys' point about people's interpretation of the Kingsguard vows, most people seem to think that Ned knows the vow that the KG reference in the dream as he witnessed Jaime's investiture. So because he knows their vow, which he says Jaime swore to "protect and defend King Aerys", then this must be the vow that the Kingsguard are referencing (protect and defend the king).

But this interpretation doesn't actually fit with how the conversation goes, because Ned wonders why the Kingsguard weren't at Storm's End. There were zero members of the royal family there, so why would Ned think that they would have been there? He'd know that the Redwynes and Tyrells were the ones sieging Storm's End, not the royal family. He'd also know by doing the math that only Viserys and Rhaella were left of the Targaryen family after the Trident and the Sack, so if the Kingsguard oath required the Kingsguard to protect and defend the king, above all else, then Ned should never have expected to find them there. He should have been expecting them only at Dragonstone if he believed, having witnessed Jaime's oath, that the KG HAD to defend the king.

[corbon]

My take on it, but I don't think it makes sense to tell those who view it as just a dream that they must be wrong. They might be right.

Thats entirely backwards.

VS stated that it was stupid to take the dream (even the conversation) at face value and there was no textual evidence supporting it. It is the textual evidence, all of it.

I didn't say that those claiming it is only a dream (and they can thus ignore anything they want to from it) that they must be wrong, only that there is no textual evidence supporting it being wrong (and that only because of the warped opposite claim having already been made). Lots of supposition, some of which you laid out, but no textual evidence. That supposition may be correct in the final wash, as we are given more evidence. But right now all the textual evidence for that conversation is Ned's dream and there is nothing in the conversation that fails to make sense.

Its the inherently mind-warping necessary to make precisely opposite claims to the literal truth, with a straight face and assumption of absolute superiority that one can do so, that astonishes me.

Actually no.

Near the end of the dream Ned is sad that it's come to blows between the two parties and that this battle must be fought. Upon waking however he's angry when he thinks about the fight that took place there, and doesn't think it's a good omen that he had that dream again (I.e he's afraid). Those are wildly different emotions that what he experiences in the dream. If things went down exactly like they did in the dream, why doesn't he feel the same emotions when he consciously thinks about the event after the dream?

When he wakes, he does not think of the fight at all. He is not angry. Vayon Poole has woken him to attend to the King and he is straight into that business and dealing with the after effects of the clash with Jaime, while still injured and in pain.

Where are you getting this from?

[COYStars]

The entire theory of R+L=J is missing the complete picture, else it wouldn't be a theory and would be an established fact in the books. I think there is quite a bit of evidence such as Martin's quote and Jon Snow stating "by all the laws" that sons before uncles and even daughters before uncles. The Targaryens have an exception to that rule as women cannot inherit before men (so uncles before daughters).

But if your point is that "nothing is certain". Then yeah, there is no way the KG could be certain that Lyanna's son wouldn't be challenged. But until that point he would be the default heir. The Kingsguard are men of action, they will do their duty until they no longer can.

Isn't the point that the KG are right to protect Jon unless and until they know that he's not the heir. If Viserys is crowned then their duty switches to him. But by protecting Jon they are not choosing sides, they're just loving the one they're with. To abandon Jon would be choosing sides - and would be a disastrous measure if the side they chose was the wrong one, as they might have condemned the rightful king to death. There's little they can do to protect Viserys right now - but they can protect Jon.

Admittedly, though, that doesn't quite marry up to the dialogue at the ToJ. It does appear that they believe that Viserys is not the King (and therefore that Jon is).

[corbon]

But this interpretation doesn't actually fit with how the conversation goes, because Ned wonders why the Kingsguard weren't at Storm's End. There were zero members of the royal family there, so why would Ned think that they would have been there? He'd know that the Redwynes and Tyrells were the ones sieging Storm's End, not the royal family. He'd also know by doing the math that only Viserys and Rhaella were left of the Targaryen family after the Trident and the Sack, so if the Kingsguard oath required the Kingsguard to protect and defend the king, above all else, then Ned should never have expected to find them there. He should have been expecting them only at Dragonstone if he believed, having witnessed Jaime's oath, that the KG HAD to defend the king.

So long as there is at least one KG with the King, other members of the KG can act independently as Generals, Diplomats, Policemen etc etc. We saw this with Dayne and the Kingswood Brotherhood, Darry and Barristan etc reforming the royalist troops between BoBells and BoTrident, KG leading section of the army at he Trident, and many other times. The Tyrell besiegers of Storms End are possibly the largest royalist army (probably larger than that at the Trident), and if any KG were not at the Trident or the Sack its a reasonable possibility for them to be leading the Tyrell army at Storm's End (especially with Aerys' paranoia). Members of the royal family being there are not actually relevant to this possibility.

And Ned went almost straight from the Sack to Storms End, only a few days, so its reasonable to guess that some or all of the unknown KG might still be there, not all immediately magically transported to Dragonstone.

[corbon]

DP

The new forum software sucks, for me.
It doesn't seem to show the 'new posts' when they come up mid-write, and you click to show them, and doesn't update when you post either. Need to reload the whole page afterward.

[Minuteman]

I think that X+L=J is assured and R+L=J likely. The only issue I have with Rhaegar is Jon's legitimacy and Lyanna's character. Jon has a dream where he is with Ygritte at the pools in Winterfell. He can't bring himself to make love to her under the gaze of his father (whose face is in the heart tree) and because he didn't want to shame himself as Ned had done begetting a bastard. She replies "You know nothing, Jon Snow" and melts away. I take this to mean that Ygritte is his spearwife so any children they had together wouldn't be bastards, that Ned isn't his father, and that he isn't a bastard either. The presence of the KG at the ToJ implies that they believed that they were guarding to the royal person after Aerys, Rheager, and Rhaegar's children by Elia are dead. So if Jon was there for him to be king it would have to mean that he is legitimate. In the past Targs had been polygamous. Fine. But Lyanna is a Stark not a Targ and as a described she-wolf doesn't seem likely to be the type that would subscribe to being a second wife. Basically I could see her having an affair with Rhaegar but not marrying him when he was married already. What I leave open is the possibility that perhaps Lyanna was pregnant by a lover and they had trysts in the crypts in the vein of Bael the Bard. Rhaegar perhaps learned that a Stark offspring was of particular concern in the ptwp prophecy and he acted to protect her and her child. By marrying her which he could justify to the KG as having precedent then he could extend royal protection to her child even though it wasn't of his body. Basically I am saying that to me it seems more consistent with what is known of Lyanna's character that she would become Rhaegar's second wife in name only or his lover but not both his second wife and his lover. Again, I think it likely that Rhaegar is Jon's father but I am open to the possibility that he is not. I don't think there is anyway that he isn't Lyanna's son. And to avoid any troll responses I do not accept that Jon's father is a Stark. I think those theories are absurd.

[The Missing Crannogman]

When he wakes, he does not think of the fight at all. He is not angry. Vayon Poole has woken him to attend to the King and he is straight into that business and dealing with the after effects of the clash with Jaime, while still injured and in pain.

Where are you getting this from?

From here

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. He did not think it omened well that he should dream that dream again after so many years.

Ned's bitter about the fight, and considers it a bad omen that he's just had this dream again.

As to your next response to me (sorry can't multi quote from my phone), I definitely agree that the Kingsguard would make perfect sense to have been at Storm's End acting as commanders or what not. I'm simply saying that the interpretation that the KG must protect the king and assure his safety, above all other vows, can't possibly be how Ned personally views the KG vows as some suggest. Otherwise he'd never expect them to be at Storm's End with Rhaegar, Aerys, and Aegon all dead, and Viserys fled to Dragonstone. He'd be expecting them at Dragonstone, or on route to there if he thought that they needed the king protected at all times and above all prior orders. As far as Ned knows before he finds Lyanna and Jon, the only Targaryens left are Rhaella amd Viserys, so Viserys would be their king in his mind and they'd be required to make some effort to get to him, instead of continuing the siege (which Mace was perfectly capable of).

So for Ned to think that they'd still be at the siege of Storm's End after all the Targaryens, as far as Ned at that time knew, we're dead but for Viserys and Rhaella, means that Ned must think that there is no paramount Kingsguard vow

[Ygrain]

DP

The new forum software sucks, for me.

It doesn't seem to show the 'new posts' when they come up mid-write, and you click to show them, and doesn't update when you post either. Need to reload the whole page afterward.

Heh, I thought it was an issue with my browser. Good to know that gods of the forums don't hate me :D

Ned's bitter about the fight, and considers it a bad omen that he's just had this dream again.

Considering a memory bitter=/= necessarily being angry. A painful memory can be a bitter one, as well, and ToJ cost Ned dearly.

As to your next response to me (sorry can't multi quote from my phone), I definitely agree that the Kingsguard would make perfect sense to have been at Storm's End acting as commanders or what not. I'm simply saying that the interpretation that the KG must protect the king and assure his safety, above all other vows, can't possibly be how Ned personally views the KG vows as some suggest. Otherwise he'd never expect them to be at Storm's End with Rhaegar, Aerys, and Aegon all dead, and Viserys fled to Dragonstone. He'd be expecting them at Dragonstone, or on route to there if he thought that they needed the king protected at all times and above all prior orders. As far as Ned knows before he finds Lyanna and Jon, the only Targaryens left are Rhaella amd Viserys, so Viserys would be their king in his mind and they'd be required to make some effort to get to him, instead of continuing the siege (which Mace was perfectly capable of).

So for Ned to think that they'd still be at the siege of Storm's End after all the Targaryens, as far as Ned at that time knew, we're dead but for Viserys and Rhaella, means that Ned must think that there is no paramount Kingsguard vow

You're missing the time and distance factor - would the KG have heard about the Sack prior Ned arrived? It's not like the ravenmail is 100% reliable. Furthermore, even if the news did reach the hypothetical KG at Storms' End, it wouldn't have been necessary for all of them to abandon the siege, one or two would have sufficed.

Basically, the point of the whole dialogue is like "WTF are you all doing here? You are not supposed to be here," and they reply that they have KG duty here and now, not at Dragonstone.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Just had a thought about the "half-dozen" companions of Rhaegar in the Riverlands. The usual suspects are:

Arthur Dayne, Oswell Whent, Myles Mooton, Richard Lonmouth, along with several other candidates.

Just wanted to add one to the mix: Bonifer Hasty. Old friend/love of Rhaegar's mother, someone who would be willing to help in such a venture.

And someone who is both 1) alive, and 2) we have heard of!

Thoughts?

Hmm.. interesting. He is said to have become quite "holy" after Rhaella's marriage, would he have been willing to help break a betrothal by kidnapping a maiden?

I think that, whoever accompanied Rhaegar into the Riverlands, by the time he came close to Haerenhal, only Whent and Dayne were left with him. To me, it does not appear to have been one direct trip to Harrenhal..

DP

The new forum software sucks, for me.

It doesn't seem to show the 'new posts' when they come up mid-write, and you click to show them, and doesn't update when you post either. Need to reload the whole page afterward.

I think we are still in performance mode? Which makes navigating the forum quite a bit more difficult..

[Lord Varys]

JS,

from the facts we know - Prince Rhaegar leaving his son and heir, Prince Aegon, to rot on Dragonstone and eventually being at the mercy of his uncaring and mad royal grandfather - it seems very unlikely to me to propose that Rhaegar's actions connected to Lyanna and to stay at that tower as long as he did had anything to to with Aegon at all. If Rhaegar felt the need that Aegon should one day become king, and if he had been convinced that Aerys was dead-set in his conviction to disinherit him and/or his bloodline, then he should better have tried to continue his plans to depose Aerys rather than doing stuff with Lyanna at the very end of the world.

You just presuppose that Rhaegar might consider the possibility of him dying/predeceasing Aerys. There is no hint that this thought ever crossed his mind. He seems to be very confident that he is going to defeat the rebels when he leaves KL. But even if he thought about the possibility of dying he most likely knew that this would be the end of the Targaryen dynasty, too, as Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, and Rhaegar's own children even younger. I very much doubt that ensuring Aegon's succession in a scenario in which would still have become king had Rhaegar won and eventually succeeded or deposed Aerys is not exactly a priority. And it makes virtually no sense for Rhaegar to risk the fate of the whole dynasty - by refusing not to return to KL when Ser Gerold shows up - simply to ensure Aegon's eventual ascension should Rhaegar predecease Aerys.

Finally, we actually don't know Aerys' mindset towards Rhaegar and vice versa at this point. The fact that Aerys actually had Gerold find and return Rhaegar to the capital suggests that he wasn't ready to burn his son alive for causing the whole rebellion, and for hiding at the tower since at least after the dismissal of Lord Merryweather as Aerys then, apparently, only made Connington Hand because Rhaegar could not be found.

It is possible that Aerys still mistrusted Rhaegar but felt still compelled to overcome this mistrust and give him command. Or it is possible that he had overcome his mistrust and actually reconciled with his son and gave him command because he loved him and wanted his son and heir to defeat the enemy. We know that Rhaegar still planned to depose his father, but that his personal intentions, I think, were always motivated by the fact that Aerys was a very bad king for Westeros (and his dynasty) in the mental and physical state he was in. His reluctance to act against his father - around the time of Harrenhal and later - can be read as a hint that he wasn't driven by ambition or hate but simply by the fact that his father had become insane.

We also do not know yet whether Rhaegar and Lyanna had no clue/idea what was happening in the larger Realm until Ser Gerold showed up, and do thus also not really know why they stayed at the tower. If they had no clue then they most likely reason was 'we are very much in love with each other and want to go on extended private honeymoon, and run away from our responsibilities, perhaps forever' (the name 'Tower of Joy' actually suggests something like that). If they were apprised of events (the deaths of Rickard and Brandon at Aerys' hands, the command of the king to execute Ned and Robert, the beginning of a rebellion that tore the Realm apart) then they have to have another reason to stay there.

But I very much doubt that one of those reasons would have been to ensure the succession of Elia's son should Rhaegar predecease Aerys - you know, how could Rhaegar be sure that Aerys was not going to burn Aegon alive in his absence to punish Rhaegar for his absence just as Maegor the Cruel tortured Prince Viserys to death following the flight of Alyssa Velaryon?

corbon.

when I say we have no textual evidence that the conversation went as it was retold in the dream then I mean exactly that. A series of events depicted in a dream is not evidence that the series of events as depicted in the dream matches the real events it was based on. We have textual evidence that Ned Stark had a dream that was based on some real events, but we have no textual evidence whatsoever that the events occurred the way they are portrayed in the dream. It is conscious decision of the author to depict this is a dream rather than a memory - he wants to drop some clues, but he also wants to obscure and hide the truth.

Your assertion that Kingsguard can only take roles as commanders, diplomats, etc. when at least one of them is guarding the king is another fairy-tale, by the way. We don't have textual evidence that this is the case, but we do have textual evidence that kings can be protected by other people while remaining KG are assigned to defend other members of the royal family (when Larys Strong commanded Kingsguard knights Fell and Thorne to guard Princess Jaehaera and Prince Maelor while King Aegon II was handed to the care of the bastard knight Ser Marston Waters). Thus we can reasonably drop that baseless assumption. Jaime's meeting with his brothers in the White Sword Tower was never proof for that, anyway, as it was also revealed that Kingsguard can name to take over their duty for a time when Ser Loras said that his brother, Garlan, was one of the men guarding the king that night (who is no brother of the Kingsguard). Not to mention that one Kingsguard alone couldn't properly protect the king anyway as he would have to sleep every day and hand the king's protection either to a non-KG man during that time or leave him unprotected.

The king decides what his Kingsguard is doing, and if a king decides to go alone in the woods for a walk or to spend some time with his mistress alone then they better not follow him.

SFDanny,

I've argued some threads way back that Ned's ritualistic talk (and his construction of the knights answers) has effectively no realism whatsoever. It may indeed be that the dream tells us more about Ned's guilt/shame to allow the war to happen leading to the death of the children - for instance, Robert being called 'usurper' in Ned's dream may be a hint that Ned has hidden issues with the fact that he helped to overthrow the Targaryen dynasty (his determination to protect Daenerys and her unborn child may also be partially motivated by that).

Ned's talk about where he had expected to find the knights could also have nothing to do with the knights at all but rather with his hope that they had not, in fact, fought a war to kill the man his sister Lyanna had fallen in love with (but her abductor and rapist) and that Rhaegar had not married Lyanna and/or fathered a child on her and commanded the Kingsguard to protect her. Ned does only know about the knights motivations what they told him, and if they told him little or nothing at all then he may have constructed them as the dead-set Targaryen loyalists they present themselves in the dream even if they were actually more or completely on Rhaegar's side than in Aerys' camp (I doubt that young Ned knew anything about this mistrust/schism between Rhaegar and Aerys that led to the tourney of Harrenhal - he was still a young man, and far away from court life and intrigue).

On the super skinchanger theory:

I know about that and thought that 'magic' was a good reference to it. I find it not very convincing as Ned Stark does not give us any sign in AGoT that he is aware of the existence of skinchangers (both within and without his family), and he would have to know that Howland is a skinchanger had he tried to high-jack Ser Arthur Dayne. We also don't know whether there are still skinchangers among the crannogmen or whether they are mostly bringing forth green dreamers. I'd not rule it out completely but I would find that a very degrading way to die for Ser Arthur.

TMC,

if Ned did indeed say and think the knights had been at Storm's End, then Ned Stark at least does not share the idea that the primary duty of the Kingsguard is to defend or the members of the royal family. Storm's End should have learned about Rhaegar's death before the Sack, and even if the knights had been there they would have been near enough to return to KL (or go to Dragonstone) before the Sack occurred.

You get all sorts of problems if you try to imagine the KG as being free to decide what their duty is. The purpose of their order is to protect the king. But they are themselves deciding how to do that. Those decisions are made for them, by other people - most notably the king, but also by members of the king's family, and the king's administration. Aerys could have commanded the knights to assist or command the siege of Storm's End. But would he have done that? Most likely not. Had Ned actually thought about the knights being at Storm's End if he had internalized the Kingsguard oath the way certain people interpret it or honoured them (actually only Ser Arthur Dayne) for staying true to their (alleged) primary duty of defending their king at the tower? Most likely not. The facts of the dream sequence itself are at odds with a very popular interpretation that is holding sway around here.

[Lord Varys]

Jon Connington could also have gone with Rhaegar, only to part company with him at one point - say, by being disgusted over this travesty of a marriage he had to witness ;-). We know he had to be back at KL to be appointed Hand after Merryweather. And who knows - perhaps Rhaegar and Lyanna only had to go underground after the court learned that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to wife, causing a massive uproar from Aerys, Rhaella, the Faith, and the Martells... Rhaegar and Lyanna could have first gone to Mooton at Maidenpool, originally intending to take ship to Dragonstone - only to change their minds after they realized what they did.

Connington's interesting phrasing when he introduces Prince Aegon to the Golden Company as 'Prince Rhaegar's first born son by his wife, Princess Elia of Dorne' could be a pretty big hint that Connington knows/suspects that Rhaegar had another son with Lyanna, or may have had such a child. If that's the case, then he would also have known that they were married (if they were married). TWoIaF mentions the well-known story of what followed to the abduction of Lyanna which essentially could be the story how their marriage became public knowledge - the fact that this was done as a secret marriage or never suspected/known to any people who actually know that Rhaegar was in love with Lyanna makes little sense. George writes his story in a way in which many people don't think or speak about certain well-known topics to keep things ambiguous and hidden. This has led many of us - myself included - to believe that Rhaegar and Lyanna married in secret and never revealed that fact to the public. They may still have married in secret but the court may still have learned soon about it (Varys), and there may have been repercussions. It is strange that paranoid Aerys failed to grasp the threat posed by Jon, Robert, and Ned in the beginning of the rebellion - perhaps the court was preoccupied with tracking down and subsequently execute the traitorous polygamist Prince Rhaegar? This could also explain why Rhaegar and Lyanna eventually found 'joy' at that tower in the middle of nowhere...

This could have occurred prior to the outbreak of the rebellion, while Brandon - believing Rhaegar went to KL - was already incarcerated at the Red Keep but not yet dead. Or during the time between the Stark execution and Aerys' command to Jon Arryn to kill Robert and Ned, too. In fact, if we assume that Aerys/the court received the news about Rhaegar's marriage after the execution but before he wrote the letter to the Eyrie, his decision could make somewhat more sense. Aerys - remembering what the Laughing Storm had done to his grandfather - realized that Robert Baratheon could not to be allowed to live after his son had actually married Robert's betrothed.

But it is also possible that Aerys already knew about Rhaegar's marriage to Lyanna when he executed Rickard and Brandon as he may have believed/accused them of having arranged this whole marriage in an attempt to assist Rhaegar in his plans to overthrow Aerys.

Richard Lonmouth may have accompanied Rhaegar to the tower, but Mooton may have been as disgusted as Jon Connington and decided to go to KL with him - perhaps to try to defend Rhaegar's actions at court. When Rhaegar and Lyanna eluded Aerys' men, and did nothing to try to raise troops against Aerys but Merryweather failed to deal with Robert, Ned, and Jon, Aerys may eventually have realized that Rhaegar was, in fact, not plotting against him but rather merely behaving as stupid as Aerys' own uncle and father had in their youth - which led to Aerys eventually turning to Jon Connington as the new Hand (after he could not find Rhaegar to ask him to take the burden).