Varys' naivety in regard of Aegon?

[White26]

As we know the first move of Connington (and of Varys?) was to deliver Aegon to Daenerys and marry them. This plan failed due to Tyrion involvement who made very good point that how they know whether Dany will believe that he is real. Apart of this, if she will believe that he is real it does not mean that she will accept the marriage and his claim. How Varys who supposedly is master schemer could made such a plan?

[chrisdaw]

What was the better alternative you had in mind? Since she hatched dragons he's been trying to get her to come the fuck back West, Aegon and the GC are a much better persuasion than Barristan.

[Smoother Than a Storm]

I imagine Varys was counting on Dany seeing that by joining with Aegon, she would gain followers in exchange for lending credit to his legitamacy and that would appeal to her.

[White26]

Quentyn offered her Dorne and she refused. The better alternative was that which already happened, Aegon's landing in the Stormlands. I wonder what was the reaction of Varys to the change of plans when he heard of them. Murder of Kevan was undoubtedly caused by this change.

[joluoto2]

As we know the first move of Connington (and of Varys?) was to deliver Aegon to Daenerys and marry them. This plan failed due to Tyrion involvement who made very good point that how they know whether Dany will believe that he is real. Apart of this, if she will believe that he is real it does not mean that she will accept the marriage and his claim. How Varys who supposedly is master schemer could made such a plan?

Varys don't know Daenerys, he only knows what Illyrio has told him, and what Jorah reported, which means he has a poor understanding of her character, since she was a completely different person when she lived at Illyrio's place and Jorah probably didn't report that much about who she is, and hasn't reported since Qarth.

Varys doesn't even know Dany desires the throne, he might think she doesn't, since she stayed in Mereen.

[White26]

Well, her deeds are well known in Essos and to some degree in Westeros. Tyrion outlained her character properly when speaking with Aegon. Ilirio as well knows her character and how it changed on the Dothraki sea.

[Armstark]

I think without the dragons Aegon's war for the throne is doomed to fail. Either he will never gain the throne or loose it soon to Daenerys' and her dragons. So Varys gave the correct advice to Connington in my opinion. Also if you read the conversation between Aegon and Tyrion again you will notice that Tyrion never actually advocated for going directly do Westeros as he ends his speech with "I lied. Trust no one. And keep your dragon close."

It was a test for Aegon which he failed spectacular. Even Connington knows that it is not the best plan but he goes along because he can hear his clock ticking due to the greyscale he got.

[jontargaryen_]

I think without the dragons Aegon's war for the throne is doomed to fail. Either he will never gain the throne or loose it soon to Daenerys' and her dragons. So Varys gave the correct advice to Connington in my opinion. Also if you read the conversation between Aegon and Tyrion again you will notice that Tyrion never actually advocated for going directly do Westeros as he ends his speech with "I lied. Trust no one. And keep your dragon close."

It was a test for Aegon which he failed spectacular. Even Connington knows that it is not the best plan but he goes along because he can hear his clock ticking due to the greyscale he got.

Yes this is so on point!

[Ben zo Xand]

First of all. You misunderstand the plan. Vary's who is the master planner on this decided that its best to separate the children so that Viserys doesnt kill Aegon and so that they can teach Aegon how to be King. They already know that Viserys suffers the Mad King disease and would not be the King Westeros needs. The plan was to first protect them and when they are grown get them an Army and sail to Westeros. They never expected to Marry Aegon and Dany as that will mean a possibility of the Madness being unleash on Westeros again. They do later when the Dragons and Dany vast army appears.

They never ever though Dragons were a possibility that was a surprise to the entire world.

No one will fight a War to win the Throne not even Stannis. Everyone will fight the Cold from the north once Winter swallows half the earth. So Dany an Aegon will never fight for the Throne or at all since they are family. Do not read up to much into things. Tyrion is simply teaching Aegon critical thinking and to trust no one as its best to think in War etc. Once he meets Dany he will teach her the same thing...

[Lord Ravenstark]

First of all. You misunderstand the plan. Vary's who is the master planner on this decided that its best to separate the children so that Viserys doesnt kill Aegon and so that they can teach Aegon how to be King. They already know that Viserys suffers the Mad King disease and would not be the King Westeros needs. The plan was to first protect them and when they are grown get them an Army and sail to Westeros. They never expected to Marry Aegon and Dany as that will mean a possibility of the Madness being unleash on Westeros again. They do later when the Dragons and Dany vast army appears.

They never ever though Dragons were a possibility that was a surprise to the entire world.

No one will fight a War to win the Throne not even Stannis. Everyone will fight the Cold from the north once Winter swallows half the earth. So Dany an Aegon will never fight for the Throne or at all since they are family. Do not read up to much into things. Tyrion is simply teaching Aegon critical thinking and to trust no one as its best to think in War etc. Once he meets Dany he will teach her the same thing...

Am I the only one who thinks Varys and Illyrio couldn't care less about the Seven Kingdom's ruling if it was not beneficial for them?

[Ben zo Xand]

Am I the only one who thinks Varys and Illyrio couldn't care less about the Seven Kingdom's ruling if it was not beneficial for them?

Illyrio yes its doing it for his own profit (Power). But Varys its doing it for Westeros (Peace) If Varys wanted money he will be very rich he truly only want peace. He doesnt even has lust for sex etc...

[Armstark]

First of all. You misunderstand the plan. Vary's who is the master planner on this decided that its best to separate the children so that Viserys doesnt kill Aegon and so that they can teach Aegon how to be King. They already know that Viserys suffers the Mad King disease and would not be the King Westeros needs. The plan was to first protect them and when they are grown get them an Army and sail to Westeros. They never expected to Marry Aegon and Dany as that will mean a possibility of the Madness being unleash on Westeros again. They do later when the Dragons and Dany vast army appears.

They never ever though Dragons were a possibility that was a surprise to the entire world.

No one will fight a War to win the Throne not even Stannis. Everyone will fight the Cold from the north once Winter swallows half the earth. So Dany an Aegon will never fight for the Throne or at all since they are family. Do not read up to much into things. Tyrion is simply teaching Aegon critical thinking and to trust no one as its best to think in War etc. Once he meets Dany he will teach her the same thing...

I was talking about the current plan of Varys in ADWD which I did not missunderstand at all:

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time

the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers

at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child

queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns

up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides

we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

Quite clearly the plan was at that point to meet up with Daenerys and conquer Westeros together.

You warn me about not reading too much into things but claim things yourself that have no actual basis in the text which is much worse in my eyes. Stannis is currently fighting for the Iron Throne as is Aegon, that is a fact. That Daenerys and Aegon will never fight each other has no basis in the text - it is baseless speculation.

And that Varys+Illyrio thought dragon hatching wasn't even a possibility is again not in the text.

[Ben zo Xand]

I was talking about the current plan of Varys in ADWD which I did not missunderstand at all:

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time

the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers

at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child

queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns

up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides

we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

Quite clearly the plan was at that point to meet up with Daenerys and conquer Westeros together.

You warn me about not reading too much into things but claim things yourself that have no actual basis in the text which is much worse in my eyes. Stannis is currently fighting for the Iron Throne as is Aegon, that is a fact. That Daenerys and Aegon will never fight each other has no basis in the text - it is baseless speculation.

And that Varys+Illyrio thought dragon hatching wasn't even a possibility is again not in the text.

I agree at that point the plan was to meet and go together... Things change. That is the point of Tristan words. The text is telling you things change as it does.

What I claim has basis. You have to think strategically like Varys, Little Finger, Tywin, Tyrion, Doran, Quentyn thinks... I laid out the reason why most likely they separated Aegon from Viserys and Dany.

George can't put everything in text or answer every question, us readers have to deduct some of that. The fear is when you take words that he writes and try to find a double or triple meanings etc. He does that some of the time but not all the time. You have to be logical and everything needs to fit on your prediction or thought of what will happen or how things will turn out.

Now the next book is called The Winds of Winter you can deduct that The Others will come into play. Why will you fight for the Throne when you have stuff that will kill everything that lives ? Why will Aegon and Danenery fight each other ? If they are family and Aegon means her no ill ? The plan was to join forces, she would love to have a Family member with her. It is baseless to think she and Aegon will fight each other.

As for Varys and Illyio thinking that dragons where possible. I agree. But very very remotely. Just an after though you do not factor that in on your plan. Until it happens...

[Bryaugh]

Am I the only one that thinks that "Targ madness" is a bunch of crap? What about Lannister madness? Joffrey was clearly a psychopath and Cersei obviously has issues. Look at the Boltons. Even our beloved Starks have had people that were not sane ruling the north.

Look at real world politicians and rulers throughout history. How many of them seem crazy and or are insane? Too many to count. Put yourself in a medieval setting and think about how superstitious people would have been. I don't think Targ madness is real. I think all humans, in reality or fiction, are capable of losing touch with "sanity" and doing things that may not be deemed "right" by others regardless of who you are descended from. I think it is stupid to treat "Targ madness" as fact and use it for the basis of an argument.

From the wiki:

It must be observed that of the

Targaryen kings who ruled Westeros for

almost 300 years, only Aerys could be

considered truly mad. Several princes

and bastards of Targaryen blood

comitted insane acts for one reason or

another, and oftentimes it was not "pure

madness" but acts born of desperation

or arrogance that lead to further

tragedies as the tragedy at Summerhall.

There is magical power in the blood of

old Valyria and this may create a certain

instability in a Targaryen's personality,

but it could also be that this is due to

the fact that the Targaryens have

forgotten how to control it when magic

waned from the world and dragons

disappeared.

[Masha]

Am I the only one that thinks that "Targ madness" is a bunch of crap? What about Lannister madness? Joffrey was clearly a psychopath and Cersei obviously has issues. Look at the Boltons. Even our beloved Starks have had people that were not sane ruling the north.

Look at real world politicians and rulers throughout history. How many of them seem crazy and or are insane? Too many to count. Put yourself in a medieval setting and think about how superstitious people would have been. I don't think Targ madness is real. I think all humans, in reality or fiction, are capable of losing touch with "sanity" and doing things that may not be deemed "right" by others regardless of who you are descended from. I think it is stupid to treat "Targ madness" as fact and use it for the basis of an argument.

From the wiki:

Mostly issues of inbreeding.

Joffrey, Mad King and Viserys are most spectacular examples. Cersei - Joanna and Tywin were first cousins, if I remember correctly. When I looked at Stark family trees, also a lot of first/second cousins/uncles/ marriages.

And Targs been inbreeding for about 300 years, so whatever genetic markers are there for instability they were amplified. (I think you can count on your fingers the number of non-Targ spouses throughout those 300 years - Martells twice, Arryns once, Blackwoods once, and Viserys II's Lycene wife, I think that's it)

The only surprise that there are some normal individuals there - Dany, Rhaegar, their mother, but they are more of exception to the rule than normal. Furthermore, as GRRM says, for Targs its a coin toss - madness and brilliance. (especially if you would consider that most real-life geniuses, especially math/physics ones, are not exactly normal in the autism scale)

[Armstark]

I agree at that point the plan was to meet and go together... Things change. That is the point of Tristan words. The text is telling you things change as it does.

What I claim has basis. You have to think strategically like Varys, Little Finger, Tywin, Tyrion, Doran, Quentyn thinks... I laid out the reason why most likely they separated Aegon from Viserys and Dany.

George can't put everything in text or answer every question, us readers have to deduct some of that. The fear is when you take words that he writes and try to find a double or triple meanings etc. He does that some of the time but not all the time. You have to be logical and everything needs to fit on your prediction or thought of what will happen or how things will turn out.

Now the next book is called The Winds of Winter you can deduct that The Others will come into play. Why will you fight for the Throne when you have stuff that will kill everything that lives ? Why will Aegon and Danenery fight each other ? If they are family and Aegon means her no ill ? The plan was to join forces, she would love to have a Family member with her. It is baseless to think she and Aegon will fight each other.

As for Varys and Illyio thinking that dragons where possible. I agree. But very very remotely. Just an after though you do not factor that in on your plan. Until it happens...

There is a base for thinking that Aegon and Daenerys will end up fighting each other. First there is the warning of the mummer's dragon which Daenerys takes seriously. If she hears of Aegon she will immediately think of that warning. And since you are big on book titles what do you think A Dance with Dragons stands for or at least alludes to? You do know what the last Dance was, don't you?

We simply don't know how pronounced the White Walker threat will be felt in KL when Daenerys arrives. It could still be just some horror stories from the North that nobody believes. And even then... Stannis knows about the threat and yet he still fights to win the Iron Throne.

[Whitering]

Well, her deeds are well known in Essos and to some degree in Westeros. Tyrion outlained her character properly when speaking with Aegon. Ilirio as well knows her character and how it changed on the Dothraki sea.

He knows about the first change she went through there, I don't think any of them are ready for what happened the second time she went through a change there, it should be fun.

[Ben zo Xand]

There is a base for thinking that Aegon and Daenerys will end up fighting each other. First there is the warning of the mummer's dragon which Daenerys takes seriously. If she hears of Aegon she will immediately think of that warning. And since you are big on book titles what do you think A Dance with Dragons stands for or at least alludes to? You do know what the last Dance was, don't you?

We simply don't know how pronounced the White Walker threat will be felt in KL when Daenerys arrives. It could still be just some horror stories from the North that nobody believes. And even then... Stannis knows about the threat and yet he still fights to win the Iron Throne.

I don't do what most do and try to find meaning to words. I said since the book it's called The Winds of Winter you can assume the Battle begins. Now we know the battle it's coming will it be in this book or the next? We will see but Winter is Coming...

Now you assume the 2nd Long Night will affect just Westeros? Last time it affect the Whole World... but we will see. Nobody will fight each other if The Others come... NOBODY. Be logical, imagine an Alien race it's coming to Earth, we have seen it! They are by Saturn and sent a message through radio waves that said "We come to kill you and takeover your planet". And we see Guns, lots of them! War between humans will end right there. Someone it's coming which are stronger and aim to wipe us out and take the Earth for them.

And if she takes the warning of the mummer's dragon as "Fight that person". Then she will fight with everyone. Quentin, Tyrion, Griff and Aegon yes by your logic. So let's wait for those fights. She never fought Quentin but no matter... She will fight everyone else, even Selmy... the warning says Trust Nobody. Only Quaithe she will trust or wait maybe she can't trust Quaithe either... It said Trust Nobody... That is the craziness I mean when you take only one word or sentence and built rationale around it. Be logical. It should fit the entire puzzle.

[Justin Amey]

I think without the dragons Aegon's war for the throne is doomed to fail. Either he will never gain the throne or loose it soon to Daenerys' and her dragons. So Varys gave the correct advice to Connington in my opinion. Also if you read the conversation between Aegon and Tyrion again you will notice that Tyrion never actually advocated for going directly do Westeros as he ends his speech with "I lied. Trust no one. And keep your dragon close."

It was a test for Aegon which he failed spectacular. Even Connington knows that it is not the best plan but he goes along because he can hear his clock ticking due to the greyscale he got.

I seriously think you're underestimating Aegon. You make it seem as thought he is currently fighting the whole Realm.

He pretty much took the Stormlands, He has dorne, The north and Riverlands were buttfucked currently, The vale ain't fighting.

All he has to do is get past the Tyrells and lannisters and thanks to Varys he already in step in the right direction.

Second, now that she has dragon she needs Aegon more than she ever thinks to. The blood of dragons is needed to keep real Dragons under control from now and later generations. she kills Aegon The Targ name won't past her.

[Khaella]

Am I the only one who thinks Varys and Illyrio couldn't care less about the Seven Kingdom's ruling if it was not beneficial for them?

No I feel the same way. They are sneaky sneaky men. When he says that "Little Finger is the second most devious man in the realm", he cleary thinks that he is the first and I have to agree with him. Varys is behind almost every single thing going on.