R+L=J v.143

[UnmaskedLurker]

I've encountered plenty of people here, and recently in the other thread you and I were talking in, who think that the "They were following Rhaegar's orders" explanation Martin gave doesn't make sense. That they wouldn't continue to follow this order after the Targaryen dynasty started to wobble. Or after Rhaegar and/or Aerys's deaths. I'm saying that's simply not true. Even if the "they were following Rhaegar's orders to the bitter end" thing is a cover story, it has to be a plausible cover story. If it were so unheard of and out of character for the Kingsgaurd to continue following pre-existing orders at the expense of protecting the king, then their presence would be a huge red flag for the people of Westeros. Even not knowing what we know, it's not hard to imagine someone like Varys figuring out there must have been a baby there. After all he knew Ned brought a child back with him.

Well, personally I don't think many people who really address all the ancillary issues would state that following Rhaegar's orders makes no sense after the fall of the dynasty. The point is that it makes no sense IF and ONLY IF the KG know that Viserys is alive and on DS and make no attempt to get to him. THAT piece of information is the one that makes it hard to understand why they would just continue to follow Rhaegar's orders -- and why the king needs to be in the tower. I don't think very many people would argue that if the KG had NO idea that V was on DS, that following Rhaegar's orders makes no sense. What else should they do? Where else should they go? They would have no other place to go or anything else to do. What we know that almost no one else in Westeros knows is that even when confronted with the issue that V is on DS and the KG are at ToJ, the KG express no obligation or interest to go to DS. Without that piece of information, what else would KG be expected to do? Really, where else could they go?

[Many Faced Dude]

a dude says, look at it from another point,

a dude sees, since the hbo series already has reached Winter, and according to the series so far, R+L=J is the only option. a Dude is following the Hero since five seasons. It would be a great disappointment for a dude, if jons mother was some ordinary cunt a dude has never seen in the series and never heard about?! allright disappointments is a Ma(rti)ns thing but it would take down the epic construct, the whole saga has build up yet. a man named jon needs fancy blood, just starks fluid would not be enough to be a prince twp.

of course in the books a dude can find many other possibilities, but a dude is quite sure hbo knows the ending of the story better than the dude knows tho...

greetings

[RumHam]

Well, personally I don't think many people who really address all the ancillary issues would state that following Rhaegar's orders makes no sense after the fall of the dynasty. The point is that it makes no sense IF and ONLY IF the KG know that Viserys is alive and on DS and make no attempt to get to him. THAT piece of information is the one that makes it hard to understand why they would just continue to follow Rhaegar's orders -- and why the king needs to be in the tower. I don't think very many people would argue that if the KG had NO idea that V was on DS, that following Rhaegar's orders makes no sense. What else should they do? Where else should they go? They would have no other place to go or anything else to do. What we know that almost no one else in Westeros knows is that even when confronted with the issue that V is on DS and the KG are at ToJ, the KG express no obligation or interest to go to DS. Without that piece of information, what else would KG be expected to do? Really, where else could they go?

So the "drop your existing orders in favor of the primary duty of protecting the king" rule only applies when they are certain where the king is and that he's alive?

Also why do you assume that people like Varys would assume they were totally cut off from information about the state of the war? They would have to get supplies brought in at the very least, it's safe to assume they had contact with the outside world. Or are you suggesting they Varys and others would assume they heard false reports that Viserys was killed in the sack?

[Iron Stag]

It would be noteworthy, by someone (Hoster) if Ethan was a courier from Aerys demanding Rickard's presence to answer for his son's actions. It would be noteworthy, if everyone else was executed, but Ethan was released by Aerys, for any reason. No one notes it, therefore we can be confident that he was imprisoned for the duration. I'm sure that you can see Aerys putting Ethan in the Maiden Vault, but I think that Aerys sends prospective assassins/traitors to the Black Cells, with no regard for rank.

“Ethan Glover was Brandon’s squire,” Catelyn said. “He was the only one to survive. The others were Jeffory Mallister, Kyle Royce, and Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn’s nephew and heir.” It was queer how she still remembered the names, after so many years. “Aerys accused them of treason and summoned their fathers to court to answer the charge, with the sons as hostages. When they came, he had them murdered without trial. Fathers and sons both.”

Catelyn sure knows about Ethan not being executed. And there's no real reason for her to know this if Aerys imprisoned him and then Ned took him to die anonymously in the Dorne a year later.

[Lord Varys]

Well, Catelyn is clearly wrong about some stuff there as Ronnel Arryn, Elbert Arryn's father, was long dead when his son was imprisoned by Aerys. The whole 'without trial' thing is also interesting as Rickard and Brandon got some sort of trial - how is it that the others got none?

As to the Varys (and others) knowing/figuring out the parentage of Jon Snow:

I think it is an error to assume that everyone in Westeros was stupid enough to not figure that one out. Catelyn may have failed to figure it out - but what about Varys or Doran Martell? It is not very likely that they would fail to draw the correct conclusion, especially since we can assume that people in power living in Westeros during the Rebellion would have access to a lot of information we'll never even see or hear about.

We could easily go with the 'Jon Snow story' being an elegant tale for Ned Stark to keep his sister's son out of harm's way without losing face. Hell, even Robert could have suspected something - but perhaps dared not to question Ned's tale further. After all, a bastard is a bastard, and Robert pushing the issue there would certainly have ended his friendship with Ned and put House Stark and the North thoroughly against him. That wouldn't have been a wise idea shortly after the Rebellion (although I admit that nothing in Robert's behaviour in AGoT suggests that he knew or suspected anything - but then, he may have been trying to get something out of Ned when he asked Ned about Wylla).

Wiser spectators may have done the math, thought about the three dead Kingsguard, and may have actually known why the hell these guys were down there. But why raise or probe the issue? The Targaryens were done, and nobody would fight or die for an infant - most certainly not those lords who had joined the rebels.

And to assume that Varys didn't know or suspect something makes no sense whatsoever. He could have known everything about the knights mission, he would have been in a position to find out about it, he does not really miss anything important, and he sure knows a lot more about the whole Rhaegar-Lyanna thing than we do.

The knights at the tower were not just Kingsguard, they were of very prominent houses as well. Lady Whent and Lord Hightower would also have wanted to know what happened to their kin, not just the Daynes. Ned would have to tell whatever story he came up with multiple times. It is apparently pretty much well known that Rhaegar had sex with Lyanna, so it would not be much surprising if they had produced a child. And people also knew that Ned had found Lyanna - Ned would have had to tell a story about her death, too, especially to Robert. We don't know what he told, but if stayed close to the truth he would have told them that she died after a miscarriage/stillbirth - but a perceptive observer would then only have to connect Ned Stark's reputation, his alleged bastard, and Lyanna's death in childbirth. But even if Ned omitted the death in childbirth and changed Lyanna's manner of death things would not exactly have been obscured.

And we don't know if Rhaegar had to explain to the court/his father why he had left three Kingsguard with Lyanna - or if spoke about that of his own free will. After all, if it was known that they were married, it would not have been wrong or unexpected for him to also mention that she was pregnant (to justify why he felt the need to leave the knights with her) - and then it would not be exactly difficult for anyone who had known about that to conclude that the knights may actually have died defending a royal child or make the connection between Ned Stark's bastard and Lyanna's pregnancy. In that scenario an alternative narrative about Lyanna's death wouldn't have obscured things all that much, either.

[UnmaskedLurker]

So the "drop your existing orders in favor of the primary duty of protecting the king" rule only applies when they are certain where the king is and that he's alive?

Also why do you assume that people like Varys would assume they were totally cut off from information about the state of the war? They would have to get supplies brought in at the very least, it's safe to assume they had contact with the outside world. Or are you suggesting they Varys and others would assume they heard false reports that Viserys was killed in the sack?

If they don't know where the king is -- or even that the king is alive -- I am not sure what anyone would expect them to do. It is not really possible to go to someone if you have no idea where he is. Remember, people have no idea what the KG were planning to do. If we had no information about the conversation, another theoretical possibility is that when Ned showed up the KG said that were about to leave to go to V on DS. We know they never said that -- but no one else knows.

The point is that other than Ned (and HR and Wylla, etc.) -- NO ONE else knows what the KG said or thought or intended to do. Without that information, they cannot assume the information about where V is located got to them in a timely manner or that they were not about to go to him.

What I am really suggesting is that people don't know how often the KG get information or how reliable the information would be. The only information about the KG anyone else really gets is the report from Ned -- and he says they died nobly. Ned killed them, so why would anyone doubt his word? Why would anyone bother to inquire further -- or if they did, who would they ask -- Ned is not going to talk any further about it. Ned tells them they died nobly. Each person is left to his or her own imagination as to what that would entail -- but Ned is never going to fill in the detail for anyone.

[MtnLion]

Catelyn sure knows about Ethan not being executed. And there's no real reason for her to know this if Aerys imprisoned him and then Ned took him to die anonymously in the Dorne a year later.

Unless Ned told her about his friends dying during a fight with three roaming Kingsguard.

[MtnLion]

I entertained awhile the idea of Ned going to Starfall indirectly and stealthily - and the road trouble emerged in the shape of KG, in the middle of nowhere. AND yet I couldn't shake off the feeling that the KG's choice of location was premeditated, deliberate - as was thier choice to engage in battle.

I thought that if indeed this proved to be accurate, it would have been because Rhaegar's location during the majority of the war wasn't a secret in certain circles. Aerys sent Hightower to fetch Rhaegar based on this. They weren't positive as to the precise location, but in case of emergency, knew where to start.

Are you assuming that Hightower went directly to the tower, without passing GO? All we know is that Hightower was sent to search for Rhaegar, and that he found him in time for Rhaegar to return to King's Landing at least a week or so before the Trident. That is a pretty long period that Hightower can be searching.

ETA: My thoughts about how it would go for Hightower is that he knows that Rhaegar periodically visits Summerhall. Would it work for him to keep an eye out for Rhaegar there? Of course he can do the old detective style, and go back to where Lyanna was abducted and try to trace the footsteps, many months later.

[Lord Varys]

ML,

how do you come to the conclusion that Rhaegar only returned a week or so before the Trident?

[MtnLion]

ML,

how do you come to the conclusion that Rhaegar only returned a week or so before the Trident?

Read again. At latest a week before the Trident. Why? Because one of the Kingsguard is present about a week before the Trident when Aerys is enjoying himself after roasting Chelsted, before going and dying at the Trident. Rossart, Chelsted's replacement was in office for a fortnight. Roasting to sack, at least a fortnight. Of course the bruises and bite marks were still visible on Rhaella when she leaves King's Landing after news of the Trident, so it cannot be much more than a fortnight between the two.

[RumHam]

If they don't know where the king is -- or even that the king is alive -- I am not sure what anyone would expect them to do. It is not really possible to go to someone if you have no idea where he is. Remember, people have no idea what the KG were planning to do. If we had no information about the conversation, another theoretical possibility is that when Ned showed up the KG said that were about to leave to go to V on DS. We know they never said that -- but no one else knows.

The point is that other than Ned (and HR and Wylla, etc.) -- NO ONE else knows what the KG said or thought or intended to do. Without that information, they cannot assume the information about where V is located got to them in a timely manner or that they were not about to go to him.

What I am really suggesting is that people don't know how often the KG get information or how reliable the information would be. The only information about the KG anyone else really gets is the report from Ned -- and he says they died nobly. Ned killed them, so why would anyone doubt his word? Why would anyone bother to inquire further -- or if they did, who would they ask -- Ned is not going to talk any further about it. Ned tells them they died nobly. Each person is left to his or her own imagination as to what that would entail -- but Ned is never going to fill in the detail for anyone.

Well I would expect them to at least try to find him, or find out if he was alive. If the first duty overrides any existing orders.

It's not that they would doubt Ned's word, but you can still imagine people asking for more details without somehow insulting Ned's honor. I get that he wouldn't want to talk about it, but I still think that someone with the intelligence of Varys or (present day) Littlefinger would consider all possibilities. Such a person would not simply assume the three Kingsguard must have been conspicuously ignorant of what had been going on with the royal family. Varys may well even know exactly what the Kingsguard knew, he could easily be aware of riders or ravens sent to the tower.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Well I would expect them to at least try to find him, or find out if he was alive. If the first duty overrides any existing orders.

It's not that they would doubt Ned's word, but you can still imagine people asking for more details without somehow insulting Ned's honor. I get that he wouldn't want to talk about it, but I still think that someone with the intelligence of Varys or (present day) Littlefinger would consider all possibilities. Such a person would not simply assume the three Kingsguard must have been conspicuously ignorant of what had been going on with the royal family. Varys may well even know exactly what the Kingsguard knew, he could easily be aware of riders or ravens sent to the tower.

The key is that they might investigate -- or they might not. Unless they have a reason to think about it and explore alternative theories -- why would they even both to give it another thought. We cannot assume that Varys thinks to investigate everything that we know to be a mystery. Ned comes back and says they died in battle with honor -- case closed. Why even give it another thought?