[Book Spoilers] R+L=J, A+J=T and other theories on HBO V.3

[Jô Maltese]

4 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

These are less convincing to someone who doesn't believe than

 

I once replied to this type of defence (along the lines of "AJT is false because RLJ is true") wth the following: Tyrion will ride Viserion and the AJT hints mostly point to this, which when it happens will become per se a HUGE hint. Whereas Jon does not look like riding a dragon soon, therefore the hints are more straightforward towards his Targ identity.

[JonSnow4President]

6 minutes ago, Khione said:

Could be, whatever. But good thing D+D were aware of how much trouble sticking to the books regarding the age issue they'd have gone into.  Forget the public outrage, they'd have gone to jail if they had had some 13 year old actress play Dany.The aging up of the child characters has been beneficial. No problems with the law and it's been more believable for the show characters to have done all the things they have, unlike their book counterparts.

Oh, for the most part I would agree with you.  I think it's problematic when they don't make the corresponding minor changes in how they act (Tommen is a great example of this.  He acts like an 8 year old at key points to further the plot, rather than them wholesale making the change so he acts like he's older).  

[UnmaskedLurker]

Just now, JonSnow4President said:

And my point is that I think they have ZERO to do with AJT.  

So you are saying that EVEN ASSUMING AJT turns out to be the case, you do not believe that GRRM put any of those quotes into the book as foreshadowing of AJT? It would turn out to have been just a mere coincidence that some people could read them that way -- but GRRM never intended such a reading? Again, assuming AJT turns out to be the case.

[JonSnow4President]

1 minute ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

So you are saying that EVEN ASSUMING AJT turns out to be the case, you do not believe that GRRM put any of those quotes into the book as foreshadowing of AJT? It would turn out to have been just a mere coincidence that some people could read them that way -- but GRRM never intended such a reading? Again, assuming AJT turns out to be the case.

Those two in particular, yes.  (Especially the first one, which I literally don't see a connection.  The second one is a reach but I can at least see where Jo is going with it.)

[Cas Stark]

21 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

Have you actually read the A+J=T threads? I will give you two of my favourite hints (credit to our lodger, Suzanna Stormborn):

 

 

I find these have absolutely zero meaning as foreshadowing.  Even if it turns out to be true, none of these passages are foreshadowing as I define it or even evidence.  Much stronger is Tyrion's hair, his eyes, and his interest in dragons, but strongest of all evidence is the stuff in the world book.

That quote about Viscerion, I can't even comprehend how it's related to Tyrion.

And, yeah, everyone knows about the 3 heads of the dragon.  Some of us thought the third head would be Aegon.  So, again that quote is meaningless as foreshadowing for Tyrion, all it tells us is that somebody thinks the 3 heads all have to be Targaryen.

[Jô Maltese]

8 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I find these have absolutely zero meaning as foreshadowing.  Even if it turns out to be true, none of these passages are foreshadowing as I define it or even evidence.  Much stronger is Tyrion's hair, his eyes, and his interest in dragons, but strongest of all evidence is the stuff in the world book.

That quote about Viscerion, I can't even comprehend how it's related to Tyrion.

And, yeah, everyone knows about the 3 heads of the dragon.  Some of us thought the third head would be Aegon.  So, again that quote is meaningless as foreshadowing for Tyrion, all it tells us is that somebody thinks the 3 heads all have to be Targaryen.

The point is, just like for RLJ, that nothing is a clear clue on its own, isolated (like the "Snow" example above). It's the addition of the possible hints that make them more and more likely hints. Again I invite you to read the AJT thread completely, at least the OP with all its hidden contents: in terms of addition of possible hints, granted, RLJ is clearly number one in the books (and is dead cert), but AJT is clearly in second position IMO.

[Cas Stark]

3 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

The point is, just like for RLJ, that nothing is a clear clue on its own, isolated (like the "Snow" example above). It's the addition of the possible hints that make them more and more likely hints. Again I invite you to read the AJT thread completely, at least the OP with all its hidden contents: in terms of addition of possible hints, granted, RLJ is clearly number one in the books (and is dead cert), but AJT is clearly in second position IMO.

Yes, the stuff about Jon are clear clues. Lyanna and blue roses and blue roses in the vision.  Ned's lack of antipathy toward Rheagar, the King's Guard at the TOJ, all of those are clues, separately and together.

Dany thinking that all her brothers are dead but she needs 3 heads of the dragons is not in any way, shape or form a clue about Tyrion, or Jon neither is that passage about Viscerion a clue about anything, either in isolation or in concert with anything else.  

And they will still not be clues if Tyrion turns out to be a secret Targ.  I don't think it's number 2 either, it was fully in crackpot territory until the world book came out and the author very pointedly made it possible for Tyrion to be Aerys bastard.

[JonSnow4President]

6 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

The point is, just like for RLJ, that nothing is a clear clue on its own, isolated (like the "Snow" example above). It's the addition of the possible hints that make them more and more likely hints. Again I invite you to read the AJT thread completely, at least the OP with all its hidden contents: in terms of addition of possible hints, granted, RLJ is clearly number one in the books (and is dead cert), but AJT is clearly in second position IMO.

And the vast majority of what I read is similar to the things above.  Things that I don't finding convincing at all.  

The only difference is that I don't think there's a solid support based for AJT that makes me fine with including the little things like the Snow comment.  On Ned's thoughts, the ToJ dream, and Ned's actions to protecting children, I'm convinced there is R+L=J.  Kings in Snow has no real impact on my decision other than thinking "look at all the little Easter Eggs he's given us."  I don't think AJT gets that base support that makes me think these are the breadcrumbs from the larger loaf.

[Jô Maltese]

Tyrion will ride Viserion though, it is known (check my sig). Never mind, let's agree to disagree.

[UnmaskedLurker]

26 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

And the vast majority of what I read is similar to the things above.  Things that I don't finding convincing at all.  

The only difference is that I don't think there's a solid support based for AJT that makes me fine with including the little things like the Snow comment.  On Ned's thoughts, the ToJ dream, and Ned's actions to protecting children, I'm convinced there is R+L=J.  Kings in Snow has no real impact on my decision other than thinking "look at all the little Easter Eggs he's given us."  I don't think AJT gets that base support that makes me think these are the breadcrumbs from the larger loaf.

You have probably stated before, but I cannot remember. What do you think is the meaning of the Three Heads of the Dragon part of the prophecy? Do you think there will be Three Heads -- i.e., three different characters who come together to lead the war? If so, who do you think they will be? Who do you think will ride the dragons? Really, I am curious, because it was in answering these questions for myself that I came to the conclusion that AJT seemed likely (before WOIAF was released). I know answering those questions have not led you to the same conclusion, but I am still curious to know what you think are the answers to those questions.

[JonSnow4President]

5 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

You have probably stated before, but I cannot remember. What do you think is the meaning of the Three Heads of the Dragon part of the prophecy? Do you think there will be Three Heads -- i.e., three different characters who come together to lead the war? If so, who do you think they will be? Who do you think will ride the dragons? Really, I am curious, because it was in answering these questions for myself that I came to the conclusion that AJT seemed likely (before WOIAF was released). I know answering those questions have not led you to the same conclusion, but I am still curious to know what you think are the answers to those questions.

I'm not quite sure tbh.  I think it probably involves three dragon riders and ties into one or both of AA/PTWP, although I suspect Dany's dragons are going to be exposed to more than 3 people in some sort of capacity.  I think Tyrion has a significantlly higher probability than most, but I'm not sure. 

What I don't particularly care for is why is Valyrian blood needed for dragon riding (I haven't read the D&E series or AWOIAF, FWIW, but my understanding is that there is an unexpected rider if we assume Valyrian blood is required)  As a raw mathematics aside, assuming every Velaryon has 100% Valyrian blood and the Arryn's, Blackwoods, and "unknown wives are not Valyrian", Tyrion would be less than 1/40th Valyrian blood from the Targ side, and any from Joanna's side would supposedly be immaterial (sorry, I'm an accountant) 

[Cas Stark]

15 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

I'm not quite sure tbh.  I think it probably involves three dragon riders and ties into one or both of AA/PTWP, although I suspect Dany's dragons are going to be exposed to more than 3 people in some sort of capacity.  I think Tyrion has a significantlly higher probability than most, but I'm not sure. 

What I don't particularly care for is why is Valyrian blood needed for dragon riding (I haven't read the D&E series or AWOIAF, FWIW, but my understanding is that there is an unexpected rider if we assume Valyrian blood is required)  As a raw mathematics aside, assuming every Velaryon has 100% Valyrian blood and the Arryn's, Blackwoods, and "unknown wives are not Valyrian", Tyrion would be less than 1/40th Valyrian blood from the Targ side, and any from Joanna's side would supposedly be immaterial (sorry, I'm an accountant) 

Because magic is what the Varlyians used to control the dragons, it would make sense to try and weave your magic in such a way as only the Valyrians could ride them unless you had some other magical device, like a horn.  And Essos is full of blood magic.  Otherwise, how could not one single dragon have ever been stolen in all of the years of the Valyrian freehold?  Not one.  Also why the Targs did their whole dragonseed dealio.

Are you sure if Tyrion is Aerys bastard he would have that low amount of Valyrian blood?

[JonSnow4President]

2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Because magic is what the Varlyians used to control the dragons, it would make sense to try and weave your magic in such a way as only the Valyrians could ride them unless you had some other magical device, like a horn.  And Essos is full of blood magic.  Otherwise, how could not one single dragon have ever been stolen in all of the years of the Valyrian freehold?  Not one.  Also why the Targs did their whole dragonseed dealio.

Are you sure if Tyrion is Aerys bastard he would have that low amount of Valyrian blood?

Yeah.  Left the percentages on my notepad at work (it was a slow day because client was off this Friday), but going through the family tree's of every one of Aerys' ancestors, and there are 6 non Valyrian's.  Amazing how quickly someone many generations away dilutes when only 50% of genes get passed on.

For example, your great grandparents are each only responsible for 12.5% of your makeup (completely ignoring randomization of your parents genes, but on an average makeup). 

So I think it was Aerys' grandfather had an infusion of non-Valyrian.  But since there was incest at the Jaeherys level, Aerys should still be 50% of grandfather and 50% of grandmother.  So if Aerys' grandfather was 100% Valyrian (he isn't), Tyrion would only be 25% Valyrian should AJT hold true.  If Aerys' grandfather was 25% Valyrian, Tyrion is ballpark 6%.  It dilutes quickly.  

[RumHam]

20 hours ago, JonSnow4President said:

Yeah.  Left the percentages on my notepad at work (it was a slow day because client was off this Friday), but going through the family tree's of every one of Aerys' ancestors, and there are 6 non Valyrian's.  Amazing how quickly someone many generations away dilutes when only 50% of genes get passed on.

For example, your great grandparents are each only responsible for 12.5% of your makeup (completely ignoring randomization of your parents genes, but on an average makeup). 

So I think it was Aerys' grandfather had an infusion of non-Valyrian.  But since there was incest at the Jaeherys level, Aerys should still be 50% of grandfather and 50% of grandmother.  So if Aerys' grandfather was 100% Valyrian (he isn't), Tyrion would only be 25% Valyrian should AJT hold true.  If Aerys' grandfather was 25% Valyrian, Tyrion is ballpark 6%.  It dilutes quickly.  

I don't think Martin really cares too much about the science behind it. 

Quote

"I don't know if I want to get into genetics - this is fantasy, not scifi"

Quote

If I start worrying about Brienne's chromosomes, the next step is trying to figure out the aerodynamic properties of dragons, and then the whole thing falls apart. Brienne is a huge, homely woman, a freak of nature by the standards of her own world and times... they can't explain her, and neither should I.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1260

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Brienne_of_Tarth

Plus I think people have pointed out that the whole "the seed is strong" / hair thing would not work in the real world.

Also Ran once said that he thinks Martin believes people need "the right drop" of blood to ride a dragon, and if Martin want's someone to have that drop they will have it. I can try to find the post if you want. 

[Suzanna Stormborn]

On 4/8/2016 at 3:23 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

So you are saying that EVEN ASSUMING AJT turns out to be the case, you do not believe that GRRM put any of those quotes into the book as foreshadowing of AJT? It would turn out to have been just a mere coincidence that some people could read them that way -- but GRRM never intended such a reading? Again, assuming AJT turns out to be the case.

 

On 4/9/2016 at 4:32 PM, RumHam said:

I don't think Martin really cares too much about the science behind it. 

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1260

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Brienne_of_Tarth

Plus I think people have pointed out that the whole "the seed is strong" / hair thing would not work in the real world.

Also Ran once said that he thinks Martin believes people need "the right drop" of blood to ride a dragon, and if Martin want's someone to have that drop they will have it. I can try to find the post if you want. 

Has everyone seen this trailer? Notice the last scene? Tyrion taking on the dragons in the pit?  and last season the last trailer had Tyrion seeing Drogon flying over the boat?  Dude this is happening

[Suzanna Stormborn]

On 4/8/2016 at 7:57 PM, JonSnow4President said:

Yeah.  Left the percentages on my notepad at work (it was a slow day because client was off this Friday), but going through the family tree's of every one of Aerys' ancestors, and there are 6 non Valyrian's.  Amazing how quickly someone many generations away dilutes when only 50% of genes get passed on.

For example, your great grandparents are each only responsible for 12.5% of your makeup (completely ignoring randomization of your parents genes, but on an average makeup). 

So I think it was Aerys' grandfather had an infusion of non-Valyrian.  But since there was incest at the Jaeherys level, Aerys should still be 50% of grandfather and 50% of grandmother.  So if Aerys' grandfather was 100% Valyrian (he isn't), Tyrion would only be 25% Valyrian should AJT hold true.  If Aerys' grandfather was 25% Valyrian, Tyrion is ballpark 6%.  It dilutes quickly.  

only descendants of one of the 40 dragonlord families can ride/tame/bond with a dragon, not just any Valyrian, and TWOIAF makes it clear that the Targaryens are the only surviving Dragonlord family period.

[Wouter]

On 13-4-2016 at 0:29 AM, Suzanna Stormborn said:

 

Has everyone seen this trailer? Notice the last scene? Tyrion taking on the dragons in the pit?  and last season the last trailer had Tyrion seeing Drogon flying over the boat?  Dude this is happening

Tyrion is taking Quentyn's roles, but obviously won't share the latter's fate. The only question is: will we see him tame/ride one of the dragons, say, Viserion? it's also interesting that Varys is apparently with him in the pit (at a more or less safe distance), and that they share scenes with the new Red Priestess send to Meereen. Either Varys or the Red Priestess may hint at Tyrion's lineage, prior to or after the scene with the dragons.

I'm hopeful this new season will finally bring some answers.

[Rhaechyll Targaryen]

16 hours ago, Wouter said:

Tyrion is taking Quentyn's roles, but obviously won't share the latter's fate. The only question is: will we see him tame/ride one of the dragons, say, Viserion? it's also interesting that Varys is apparently with him in the pit (at a more or less safe distance), and that they share scenes with the new Red Priestess send to Meereen. Either Varys or the Red Priestess may hint at Tyrion's lineage, prior to or after the scene with the dragons.

I'm hopeful this new season will finally bring some answers.

That trailer made me very excited. Basically I think that Varys is going to help fill in the blanks now that Selmy's gone. Maybe the red priestess will confirm that blood magic is necessary to become a dragonrider and Varys will be the one to tell Tyrion that his father was the mad king. 

Considering that the twins are having a conversation about Joanna this season, I think it's reasonable to suspect that she'll end up being a topic of conversation more than once this season. I love the idea of two or even three sides learning or suspecting the truth simultaneously. (The third side maybe being Bran.) Kevan is the only character in King's Landing who might have some idea of what happened. I suppose Olenna Tyrell might have heard a whisper or two but I can't see the point in having her character be the one to make that reveal. 

I think most of us are convinced that Tyrion will ride Viserion eventually so I'm curious as to where this leaves Rhaegal. Will Rhaegar simply follow his siblings over to Westeros? Will he acquire a temporary rider? Will Bran be involved somehow? I've always assumed that Bran would fly via dragon one day but I'm less sure now than I once was.

[Woman of War]

What if Varys simply applies the Dragon Testing Method on Tyrion to find out if the rumors about Tyrion's father are true - after he has fed the rumor as fact to Tyrion, with the help of the Red Pristess?

If Tyrion fails: good riddance!

If he passes: voilà, another Targaeryen!

Different version:Tyrion is forced to free the dragons because an enraged crowd threatens to kill them...........

[Suzanna Stormborn]

5 hours ago, Rhaechyll Targaryen said:

That trailer made me very excited. Basically I think that Varys is going to help fill in the blanks now that Selmy's gone. Maybe the red priestess will confirm that blood magic is necessary to become a dragonrider and Varys will be the one to tell Tyrion that his father was the mad king. 

Considering that the twins are having a conversation about Joanna this season, I think it's reasonable to suspect that she'll end up being a topic of conversation more than once this season. I love the idea of two or even three sides learning or suspecting the truth simultaneously. (The third side maybe being Bran.) Kevan is the only character in King's Landing who might have some idea of what happened. I suppose Olenna Tyrell might have heard a whisper or two but I can't see the point in having her character be the one to make that reveal. 

I think most of us are convinced that Tyrion will ride Viserion eventually so I'm curious as to where this leaves Rhaegal. Will Rhaegar simply follow his siblings over to Westeros? Will he acquire a temporary rider? Will Bran be involved somehow? I've always assumed that Bran would fly via dragon one day but I'm less sure now than I once was.

I bet the new red priestess has a dragonbinder horn or something, will take Rhaegal and will torment Dany's progression back to Westeros until she finally dies and Jon gets Rhaegal. That's my guess