Can we stop giving Robb problems for not backing Stannis? After 5x09?

[ErasmusF]

The North is being ravaged by the ironborn, Robb is obligated to take back the North and defend the Riverlands with a grand total of roughly 20,000 men (and at that point there was 0% chance of anyone from the vale joining him), the Tyrells will be sending fresh troops into the Riverlands at that point, which is almost a certainty since in the books we see Tyrell troops that far north, so Robb has to stand and fight the two strongest families in Westeros with drastically fewer men and the Tyrells and Lannisters having no other enemies actively fighting them. Unless Robb is going to abandon the Riverlands, which based on his character isn't very likely, he's screwed.

It's said in the books that the Tyrells alone can easily raise and equip double the men of any other great house and the Tyrell army at the time of the books is between 60,000-100,000 when their with Renly and after, just to give you an idea of how badly outnumbered Robb was.

This all means

Roughly a fourth of the North was being ravaged by IronBorn. And they were reaving, not holding keeps. And you're ignoring the fact that Balon was going to move his reaving south even if Euron never shows up. So the Lannisters and Tyrells will have their own IronBorn problem to deal with.

And you're ignoring the mountain clans, who Robb hasn't even called to arms.

And as for there being zero chance any of the Lords of the Vale would join Robb, that is patently wrong. The Lords of the Vale were imploring Lysa Arryn to join him. Hence the whole scene sending Catelyn away. Hell that even made it into the show! How long do you think Yohn Royce would have held out before declaring that there was no Lord of the Vale - he was already pressuring Lysa to support Robb. He could have counted on the Corbrays as well, who had not love for Lysa or Sweetrobin. The Sisters have surreptitiously broken from the Lannisters already in the books.

And you're ignoring the fact that the Tyrells would have had to feed all these 100,000 troops on an ever-lengthening supply chain. How are they going to get supplies past the Neck? Your presumptions completely ignore the logistical aspects of war.

And the BWB which was effective even before LHS, as evidenced by the show.

As for Robb being outnumbered - remember he holds some of the most strategic positions in Westeros, and their enemies hold the other (Storm's End). And they would be marching north in winter. And GRRM is an avid military historian. Look at this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Joseph_Minard#/media/File:Minard.png

Or google the Battle of the Alamo. Strategic, defensible positions mean a lot if your goal is to take and hold land. And if you're going to run a supply chain, you'll have to do that.

Robb would have been smart to leave token forces along the way and bleed the Tyrells and Lannisters until they froze in the winter.

I am not saying Robb would have won. I am saying the outcome is UNKNOWABLE.

[averde]

Roughly a fourth of the North was being ravaged by IronBorn. And they were reaving, not holding keeps. And you're ignoring the fact that Balon was going to move his reaving south even if Euron never shows up. So the Lannisters and Tyrells will have their own IronBorn problem to deal with.

And you're ignoring the mountain clans, who Robb hasn't even called to arms.

And as for there being zero chance any of the Lords of the Vale would join Robb, that is patently wrong. The Lords of the Vale were imploring Lysa Arryn to join him. Hence the whole scene sending Catelyn away. Hell that even made it into the show! How long do you think Yohn Royce would have held out before declaring that there was no Lord of the Vale - he was already pressuring Lysa to support Robb. He could have counted on the Corbrays as well, who had not love for Lysa or Sweetrobin. The Sisters have surreptitiously broken from the Lannisters already in the books.

And you're ignoring the fact that the Tyrells would have had to feed all these 100,000 troops on an ever-lengthening supply chain. How are they going to get supplies past the Neck? Your presumptions completely ignore the logistical aspects of war.

And the BWB which was effective even before LHS, as evidenced by the show.

As for Robb being outnumbered - remember he holds some of the most strategic positions in Westeros, and their enemies hold the other (Storm's End). And they would be marching north in winter. And GRRM is an avid military historian. Look at this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Joseph_Minard#/media/File:Minard.png

Or google the Battle of the Alamo. Strategic, defensible positions mean a lot if your goal is to take and hold land. And if you're going to run a supply chain, you'll have to do that.

Robb would have been smart to leave token forces along the way and bleed the Tyrells and Lannisters until they froze in the winter.

I am not saying Robb would have won. I am saying the outcome is UNKNOWABLE.

It's not unknowable it might not happen so we can't 100% say but the facts of his situation are pretty clear so you can make a VERY well educated guess, he's greatly outnumbered and obligated to stand and fight/ protect the Riverlands rather then fall back into the north. He was never going to go sit at the Neck and throw back the invading forces, he's an honorable guy who would stand and fight, and lose, in the Riverlands because he was declared king of there as well and has to protect that region and its people just as much as the north. Within the book series we see some Tyrell forces north of Kings Landing and the Riverlands share a border with the Reach so clearly supply trains and all that won't come into play hugely. The Ironborn only go south after the death of Robb, death of Tywin, and the Redwyne fleet being commanded to attack Dragonstone after both those other events, with Robb alive all of that could change so the Ironborn going south is no guarantee. The BWB is a neutral force that fights both Lannister and Stark raiders, which is made very clear in the books, so they don't have a real impact in improving Robb's chances.

I'm not an avid anti-Robb person or anything like that, tactically he does pretty well with what he has and I like the guy, but the minute he declared himself King of the North and Riverlands, and Stannis failed to take Kings Landing, he almost definitely lost the war and the vast majority of the facts surrounding him and his situation support that.