When did the Andals leave Essos?

[Mithras]

There are two options: Either George changed his mind about the timeline after ASoS was released or he decided to muddy the waters without changing his initial design because he didnot want to be too precise about events taking place thousands of years ago. There is no way that he initially planned anything other than the canon* timeline.

*canon timeline: 8000 years for the Long Night, 6000 years for the start of Andal invasions and so on.

However, there is symbolic evidence suggesting that he never changed his initial design. This one is from ADwD.

Evening took her almost unawares. As the sun was gilding the distant spires of Dragonstone, Dany stumbled onto a low stone wall, overgrown and broken. Perhaps it had been part of a temple, or the hall of the village lord. More ruins lay beyond it—an old well, and some circles in the grass that marked the sites where hovels had once stood. They had been built of mud and straw, she judged, but long years of wind and rain had worn them away to nothing. Dany found eight before the sun went down, but there might have been more farther out, hidden in the grass.

Dany finds eight circles besides the wall which is likened to the Wall by George himself. It is clearly an allusion to the eight millennia since the foundation of the Wall.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Lord Varys

Am I right in concluding that most of your argument in favor of a more recent Andal invasion is based on the dating of Qarlon's lifetime?

It just seems as if Qarlon's dating contradicts so many other sources we have.

The Rape of the Three Sisters is dated not by folk tales, but by the Maesters, as having occurred 2000 years ago. This set off the War across the Water with the Vale, led by Mathos II Arryn. Mathos clearly lived after Ser Artys Arryn, so that places the battle of Seven Stars before 2000 years ago.

Ser Artys Arren was a native Valeman, and therefore he must have lived at least a few generations after the first Andals settled in the Vale. So we know the last Red Kings bowed to the Starks well before Ser Artys Arryn's time, given that they bowed when the very first Andal longships were crossing the Narrow Sea.

This ties in with Ser Bartimus's tale which states that the Boltons and Greystarks rebelled against the Starks many centuries before the Three Sisters incident, indicating that the Boltons were vassals even this far back.

Similarly, we know from Ser Bartimus's tale that the Three Sisters incident happened long before White Harbor was established 1000 years ago.

So even though the dates are a bit mushy we know:

White Harbor was founded 1000 years ago.

The Rape of the Three Sisters happened many centuries before that, and according to the Maesters happened 2000 years ago.

The Boltons rebelled against the Starks centuries before the Rape, signifying that the Red Kings first bowed even further back in the past.

And that the Andal migration began more or less simultaneously with the Red King subjugation.

All of the above tells me that the Andal migration likely began at least 3000 years ago and that it was pretty much over by the time the War Across the Water broke out 2000 years ago.

Qarlon's dating alone is not enough for me to ignore all the contrary information pointing to a somewhat earlier Andal invasion.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

The Winged Knight is clearly fiction in my opinion. There doesn't have any real basis to this story at all besides the fact that there was a historical Ser Artys Arryn. Just as singers and septons invented other mythical heroes. But Alyssa Arryn was real, and she is the one which has been used for dates, not the Winged Knight.

The belief in the world book is that its the Arryn bit that is clearly the lie. Its an older story but they can't find any proof. They can't prove any stories before the Andal Invasion at least. We're told the First Men left runes on rocks but do we know what the runes actually said?

[Mithras]

Am I right in concluding that most of your argument in favor of a more recent Andal invasion is based on the dating of Qarlon's lifetime?

Yes, he is convinced that no Andal crossed the Narrow Sea until Qarlon was burned.

[LmL]

Lord Varys

Am I right in concluding that most of your argument in favor of a more recent Andal invasion is based on the dating of Qarlon's lifetime?

It just seems as if Qarlon's dating contradicts so many other sources we have.

The Rape of the Three Sisters is dated not by folk tales, but by the Maesters, as having occurred 2000 years ago. This set of the War across the Water with the Vale, led by Mathos II Arryn. Mathos clearly lived after Ser Artys Arryn, so that places the battle of Seven Stars before 2000 years ago.

Ser Artys Arren was a native Valeman, and therefore he must have lived at least a few generations after the first Andals settled in the Vale. So we know the last Red Kings bowed to the Starks well before Ser Artys Arryn's time, given that they bowed when the very first Andal longships were crossing the Narrow Sea.

This ties in with Ser Bartinus's tale which states that the Boltons and Greystarks rebelled against the Starks many centuries before the Three Sisters incident, indicating that the Boltons were vassals even this far back.

Similarly, we know from Ser Bartimus's tale that the Three Sisters incident happened long before White Harbor was established 1000 years ago.

So even though the dates are a bit mushy we know:

White Harbor was founded 1000 years ago.

The Rape of the Three Sisters happened many centuries before that, and according to the Maesters happened 2000 years ago.

The Boltons rebelled against the Starks centuries before the Rape, signifying that the Red Kings first bowed even further back in the past.

And that the Andal migration began more or less simultaneously with the Red King subjugation.

All of the above tells me that the Andal migration likely began at least 3000 years ago and that it was pretty much over by the time the War Across the Water broke out 2000 years ago.

Qarlon's dating alone is not enough for me to ignore all the contrary information pointing to a somewhat earlier Andal invasion.

It's really ,killing me that I cannot find this thread I am thinking of - a bunch of people hashed out these same details and came up with a similar conclusion, Free Northman - around 3000-2500 years ago. You end up having to choose between the Ironborn and the Riverlanders? (I believe) as to when certain things happened. The Ironborn are kind of a reference for dating certain things as they periodically interacted with other kingdoms in quite "memorable" ways. In any case, the idea that Valyria's expansion pushed them out also seems to agree with this. Valyria put down Ghis around 5,000 ago, although this is relying only on Dany's memory of the history Viserys taught her, so if the Andlas arrived 3,000 years ago, that allows time for migration, crumble of Andalos, and arrival in the Vale, which all seems about right to me.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I don't necessarily have a problem with Qarlon's dating, but I don't agree that his lifetime has to precede the Andal migration to Westeros.

If I had to bet on a rough date for the Andal migration, I would go for 3000 years ago. Which is also halfway between the two extremes put forward by the conflicting historic timelines - which the Blackwood kid said was an argument between 4000 years ago vs 2000 years ago.

[Mithras]

How about the unbroken lines of ancient families? A family tree gives a rough idea about how many years it covers. In the case of Starks, they also have the crypts. There is also the list of past Lord Commanders Sam found. It is impossible to have an error in the order of several millennia with so many evidences at hand.

[Lord Varys]

I think the first concentrated efforts of the Andals to conquer and found kingdoms in Westeros came after Qarlon and Hugor of the Hill (if he ever existed - that guy is a legendary hero as well). This does not necessarily mean that no Andals ever went raiding on the western coast of Westeros - after all, they were a people of seafarers.

Perhaps some Andal chieftains were motivated into raiding the Westerosi coast during Qarlon's expansion when they pushed further and further to their own coastlines?

But the whole 'we are going to Westeros to stay' thing seems to be something Hugor and the Faith instigated, and there are no hints that the conquerors of the Vale and the Riverlands or the Stormlands intended to add new domains to their realms back in Andalos - they left their homelands to stay in Westeros.

I could see those Andals who challenged the Hungry Wolf being mere raiders, but I doubt that those coming to the Vale did not come to stay.

Alyssa Arryn's lifetime is unknown, but it seems as if she lived in the Vale after the Battle of the Seven Stars, or else it makes no sense that the waterfall is named after her - again, there is no reason to name it after her if she had nothing to do with it. My guess is that the Eyrie must have been there, too, during her time as Alyssa's Tears most likely only became prominent/interesting to a broader public after the Arryns had erected their summer seat in its vicinity.

The Raping of the Three Sisters could easily have begun about 2,000 years ago if we assume that this war begun only a few generations after the Conquest of the Vale. I don't think we should take this whole idea seriously that it took 1,000 years. If we place its beginning, say, 1,500 years ago the fact that Torrhen's sons are not in favor of their sister's forced marriage to Ronnel Arryn after the Conquest may make more sense - Rhaenys tried to make peace between the Starks and the Arryns because there was still bad blood between them.

We know something about First Men runes - there are maesters translating them, and they seem to be found on burial mounds and the like. Yandel cites a maester writing books about the runes in the North, for example.

Ancient Lord Commander lists prove nothing as they could have been made up. Counting all the Starks in the crypt could help somewhat in finding out how many generations passed, but without dates and remains it will be difficult as there could be a lot of brothers and cousins down there instead of fathers and sons. Not to mention that there might be a lot of boy kings and short-lived kings who then couldn't tell us much about the time that has passed since their predecessors.

[Mithras]

Ancient Lord Commander lists prove nothing as they could have been made up.

I don't agree with all but this one is really absurd. Why on earth should they invent LC's?

[Lord Varys]

Why should septons invent ancient heroes? Why should Ser Arlan of Pennytree tell he broke seven spears against the Prince of Dragonstone when this wasn't the case? Why should anybody tell a lie?

Anyway, the known lists of the Lord Commanders don't list 998 Lord Commanders so either they are incorrect or outright wrong. Usually ancient monarch lists like the list about the popes in the first centuries are false - as somebody suddenly realized that having a list is important for some reason, and lacking an actual list names were made up. If there is no accurate list nobody can accuse you of forgery, right?

[Free Northman Reborn]

I think the first concentrated efforts of the Andals to conquer and found kingdoms in Westeros came after Qarlon and Hugor of the Hill (if he ever existed - that guy is a legendary hero as well). This does not necessarily mean that no Andals ever went raiding on the western coast of Westeros - after all, they were a people of seafarers.

Perhaps some Andal chieftains were motivated into raiding the Westerosi coast during Qarlon's expansion when they pushed further and further to their own coastlines?

But the whole 'we are going to Westeros to stay' thing seems to be something Hugor and the Faith instigated, and there are no hints that the conquerors of the Vale and the Riverlands or the Stormlands intended to add new domains to their realms back in Andalos - they left their homelands to stay in Westeros.

I could see those Andals who challenged the Hungry Wolf being mere raiders, but I doubt that those coming to the Vale did not come to stay.

Alyssa Arryn's lifetime is unknown, but it seems as if she lived in the Vale after the Battle of the Seven Stars, or else it makes no sense that the waterfall is named after her - again, there is no reason to name it after her if she had nothing to do with it. My guess is that the Eyrie must have been there, too, during her time as Alyssa's Tears most likely only became prominent/interesting to a broader public after the Arryns had erected their summer seat in its vicinity.

The Raping of the Three Sisters could easily have begun about 2,000 years ago if we assume that this war begun only a few generations after the Conquest of the Vale. I don't think we should take this whole idea seriously that it took 1,000 years. If we place its beginning, say, 1,500 years ago the fact that Torrhen's sons are not in favor of their sister's forced marriage to Ronnel Arryn after the Conquest may make more sense - Rhaenys tried to make peace between the Starks and the Arryns because there was still bad blood between them.

We know something about First Men runes - there are maesters translating them, and they seem to be found on burial mounds and the like. Yandel cites a maester writing books about the runes in the North, for example.

Ancient Lord Commander lists prove nothing as they could have been made up. Counting all the Starks in the crypt could help somewhat in finding out how many generations passed, but without dates and remains it will be difficult as there could be a lot of brothers and cousins down there instead of fathers and sons. Not to mention that there might be a lot of boy kings and short-lived kings who then couldn't tell us much about the time that has passed since their predecessors.

I just want to clarify something. Is it your contention that Qarlon predated Hugor Hill?

[Lord Varys]

That was my guess. I just rechecked the passages in TWoIaF and it may be that Hugor lived earlier as the Andals from whose ranks Qarlon eventually came actually pressed north from Andalos to take the Lorathi islands from the hairy men. Whether Hugor of the Hill actually existed is another matter. There may have been such a king/chieftain, and if he actually lived he may have lived before Qarlon but made not so big an impression on history as the septons claim.

The Seven-pointed Star states that the Seven crowned Hugor and promised him and that his descendants would rule great kingdoms in a foreign land. This either means Hugor lived shortly before the Andal exodus began (it wouldn't make any sense for him to live centuries or millennia before that if the Andals were supposed to migrate to Westeros by divine command) or Hugor is mostly a legendary figure created by the septons writing the Seven-pointed Star and putting words into his mouth that made the Andal exodus to Westeros look like a positive and justified conquest commanded by the Seven to hide the fact that the Andals were actually escaping from the Valyrians (sort of like the Biblical exodus and subsequent conquest of the Canaan is just a story, too).7

The constant migration of the Andals into Westeros around the time of the original conquests of the Vale, the Riverlands, and Stormlands suggests to me that it makes little sense to assume that the Andals were already migrating in Qarlon's day and age when Andalos still existed and the Andals in Essos still had the strength to actually try to threaten a Valyrian colony.

[Free Northman Reborn]

That was my guess. I just rechecked the passages in TWoIaF and it may be that Hugor lived earlier as the Andals from whose ranks Qarlon eventually came actually pressed north from Andalos to take the Lorathi islands from the hairy men. Whether Hugor of the Hill actually existed is another matter. There may have been such a king/chieftain, and if he actually lived he may have lived before Qarlon but made not so big an impression on history as the septons claim.

The Seven-pointed Star states that the Seven crowned Hugor and promised him and that his descendants would rule great kingdoms in a foreign land. This either means Hugor lived shortly before the Andal exodus began (it wouldn't make any sense for him to live centuries or millennia before that if the Andals were supposed to migrate to Westeros by divine command) or Hugor is mostly a legendary figure created by the septons writing the Seven-pointed Star and putting words into his mouth that made the Andal exodus to Westeros look like a positive and justified conquest commanded by the Seven to hide the fact that the Andals were actually escaping from the Valyrians (sort of like the Biblical exodus and subsequent conquest of the Canaan is just a story, too).

The reason I ask is that it seemed to me as if Qarlon presented a challenge to your placement of Hugor, in that you felt that Hugor had to precede the Andal invasion, and yet Hugor was said to have ruled all of Andalos. Hence, since Qarlon still battled petty Andal kings, you felt that he must have preceded Hugor, thus pushing the Andal migration forward in time to whenever Hugor finally arrived.

I don't read it that way. Hugor clearly predated Qarlon - if Hugor ever really existed, that is. It almost seems to me as if Qarlon ruled the remnants of the Andal tribes, after their best and brightest had already departed for Westeros. Thus, he scraped together the most powerful post-Hugor Andal civilization, largely based around Lorath and its surroundings. But he still was not able to match the size of the former united realm of Hugor, if Hugor really existed, as I mentioned above.

So if you can accept that Hugor preceded Qarlon, and did not in fact follow him, then the timeline makes much more sense. Then Qarlon is no longer a marker for the commencement of the Andal migration. And the Andal invasion can be comfortably placed around 3000 years ago. With Qarlon briefly trying to revive the former glories of Hugor's kingdom with the remnant Andals that still remained in Essos 1300 years later.

[Lord Varys]

The time line seems to be that the Andals came from the Axe, carved out Andalos and other realms (being a migratory people), and then later took the Lorathi isles from the hairy men coming from Andalos. Hugor could either have been an ancient and legendary first King of Andalos or a successor of Qarlon - the king who first united all the Andals.

Qarlon is confirmed to have fought against other petty kings in Andalos, suggesting that the Andals were still living and thriving there - which means there wouldn't have been a Valyrian Pentos there yet, either.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I don't agree with all but this one is really absurd. Why on earth should they invent LC's?

Ask the Scandinavians. The numbers behind their kings' names are XX+, despite only five or six of this name having lived. The others were made up.

Or ask Shakespeare. King Lear (among others) was assumed to be a historical figure.

Or ask the Hittites. A list of kings stretching back 200,000 years, longer than homo sapiens exists, despite their realm being just a couple centuries old.

Just some examples. Literally every single culture on Earth did something like that.

[Mithras]

Ask the Scandinavians. The numbers behind their kings' names are XX+, despite only five or six of this name having lived. The others were made up.

Or ask Shakespeare. King Lear (among others) was assumed to be a historical figure.

Or ask the Hittites. A list of kings stretching back 200,000 years, longer than homo sapiens exists, despite their realm being just a couple centuries old.

Just some examples. Literally every single culture on Earth did something like that.

I don't think George knows or cares these. I don't think in his fictional universe, he has such plans. I don't think such a twisted history serves any purpose in the story. This is not real history. This is fiction.

[Mithras]

The time line seems to be that the Andals came from the Axe, carved out Andalos and other realms (being a migratory people), and then later took the Lorathi isles from the hairy men coming from Andalos. Hugor could either have been an ancient and legendary first King of Andalos or a successor of Qarlon - the king who first united all the Andals.

Qarlon is confirmed to have fought against other petty kings in Andalos, suggesting that the Andals were still living and thriving there - which means there wouldn't have been a Valyrian Pentos there yet, either.

No, it does not mean this in any way.

Soon each island had its own king, whilst the largest boasted four. Ever a quarrelsome people, the Andals spent the next thousand years warring one upon the other, but at last a warrior styling himself Qarlon the Great brought all the islands under his sway. The histories, such as they are, claim he raised a great wooden keep at the center of Lorassyon's vast, haunted maze and decorated his halls with the heads of his slain foes.

It was Qarlon's dream to make himself King of All Andals, and to that end he went forth time and time again against the petty kings of Andalos. After twenty years and as many wars, the writ of Qarlon the Great extended from the lagoon where Braavos would one day rise all the way east to the Axe, and as far south as the headwaters of the Upper Rhoyne and Noyne.

Just read the quote above and look at the map.

[Lord Varys]

Mithras,

you have to check the Andals section, too. That states the Andals came from the Axe, and established Andalos. The Lorath section states that those Andals conquering the Lorathi isles came from Andalos and not the Axe, making it clear that Andalos existed and was under the control of Andals by that point. Qarlon later warred against the petty kings of Andalos after he had conquered his realm before he dared challenge the Norvoshi.

George would know that ancient king lists are worth nothing - you see that he is basing his story sort of on reality with the whole legendary heroes stuff. Yes, there were most likely some pretty powerful figures in the past, but it is very unlikely that Lann the Clever lived 312 years, that Garth Greenhand was actually the First Man or a living god, and that Durran Godsgrief actually married the daughter of two gods.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Mithras,

you have to check the Andals section, too. That states the Andals came from the Axe, and established Andalos. The Lorath section states that those Andals conquering the Lorathi isles came from Andalos and not the Axe, making it clear that Andalos existed and was under the control of Andals by that point. Qarlon later warred against the petty kings of Andalos after he had conquered his realm before he dared challenge the Norvoshi.

George would know that ancient king lists are worth nothing - you see that he is basing his story sort of on reality with the whole legendary heroes stuff. Yes, there were most likely some pretty powerful figures in the past, but it is very unlikely that Lann the Clever lived 312 years, that Garth Greenhand was actually the First Man or a living god, and that Durran Godsgrief actually married the daughter of two gods.

Lord Varys

What is the dating of Qarlon's lifetime based on? From my reading, the Valyrian resettlement of Lorath happened around 1700 years ago (or was it 1700 years before the Doom, can't quite recall). But that doesn't tell us how long Lorath lay uninhabited after Qarlon was burned out by the 100 Valyrian dragonlords.

So for all we know Qarlon lived 1000 years before that. Or 2000 years before that, even.

I note that the existence of Norvos is used as a means of dating Qarlon, but it is also said that a settlement existed at Norvos long before it became a Valyrian client citystate. So, with a bit of historical inaccuracy creeping into the records, these events could well reflect Qarlon attacking proto-Norvos, who at that time was just an ally of Valyria, rather than a client state, and that this could have happened 3000 years before the Doom, for all we know. Note that Qarlon is stated to have built a wooden keep in the ruins of Lorath's mazes, but the Andals were building in stone thousands of years ago already.

Theon Stark burned down stone towerhouses in his Andal campaign, and Andal building technology actually appeared to be more advanced than that of the First Men, even when they first arrived in Westeros. So if Qarlon was still building with wood, he must have lived very, very long ago. And here I mean 4000 years ago, when the Andals were still more primitive than the First Men in may respects.

At the very least, the above casts enough doubt on Qarlon's dating to question whether he lived 1700 years ago, as appears to be the current contention.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I don't think George knows or cares these. I don't think in his fictional universe, he has such plans. I don't think such a twisted history serves any purpose in the story. This is not real history. This is fiction.

Oh, he knows. He lampshades that fact with Symond Star-Eyes, Garth Greenhand and many others.

Lord Varys

What is the dating of Qarlon's lifetime based on? From my reading, the Valyrian resettlement of Lorath happened around 1700 years ago (or was it 1700 years before the Doom, can't quite recall). But that doesn't tell us how long Lorath lay uninhabited after Qarlon was burned out by the 100 Valyrian dragonlords.

Here you go, first page:

Lorath was founded 1322 years before the Doom, "more than a century" after Quarlon was killed in battle. But no more than 200 years, otherwise that expression makes no sense.

So, Quarlon was killed about 1,800-1,900 years ago.

From TWOIAF, the Lorathi chapter.