TrueMetis Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Aemon Stark said: My only issue with STV is that it mostly does away with single-member constituencies. Open-list MMP on a provincial and/or regional basis would in some way provide "double" representation, but there's much to be said for providing more reflective regional representation in the Commons than FPTP is capable of. Why is that an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aemon Stark Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 If somehow we'd had that system by the 2004 election, we might have more stable minority parliaments (even formal coalitions/alliances!). One of the main problems with FPTP occurs in this situation, since there's a chance that an incremental vote increase might translate into a parliamentary majority. PR in any form reduces the chances of this considerably, so the incentive to precipitate an election prematurely is much reduced as well. You can still get big swings in party support, but those are, ahem, more proportional to those swings. For example, in 1993, the PCs lost well over half of their 1988, but the retention of only two seats was wildly out of proportion with their 16% vote share. We'd still likely have ended up with Harper, but he never would have won a majority in 2011 based on less than 40% of the vote. And if you want to make a PR system like open-list MMP even stabler, add in some German innovations like minimum 5% thresholds for list seats and a "constructive" vote of non-confidence (well, really it was a Prussian innovation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aemon Stark Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, TrueMetis said: Why is that an issue? I think there's something to be said for the presence of a single MP in each riding, but this is more of a structural preference for me than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I also like the mixed member proportional system, and I would be happy to see electoral reform be carried out. And yes, Aemon, I know it was a promise, but since the election it does seem interest has fallen off a cliff. Rather than give up on it totally, I think they should have a referendum on whether or not to proceed. But then again, every referendum gets shot down, other than PEI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Anyone else watching this Conservative debate? I'm center - left of center, personally, but I'm kind of liking Alexander and O'Toole so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Lisa Raitt is pretty damned sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Reptitious Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 I'm a bit late to the party, but I just want to chime in on the electoral reform front: I think JT is making a big mistake here, and I'm saying that as someone who goes back and forth between the NDP and the Liberals (and could even stomach a Red Tory, if such a species still existed). If he was thinking in purely partisan terms, he should have used his parliamentary majority to ram through PB (bonus: he could still claim to have fulfilled his campaign promise, even if in quite a cynical way), and if he wanted to do what is good for the country, rather than just his party, he would have instituted some form of European-style PR (and if his party had refused - which would have been quite likely - he should have called a referendum on it, thereby leaving it up to the people). As it is, he is giving wanna-be Trumps like Kevin O'Leary a real chance of ultimately becoming PM with a majority government. If that ever happens, Trudeau's legacy (no matter what else he may ultimately achieve) will likely be forever tarnished. And this could happen as soon as next election. Trudeau shouldn't underestimate the amount of people on the left that voted for him either strategically to get rid of Harper and/or because the NDP didn't have Jack Layton this time around. And a lot of those people will either vote for someone else (NDP/Greens) or stay at home, since they are precisely the constituency that voted for him in large part because of this promise (for a lesson on this look up "Liberal Democrats" and "tuition freeze promise" in the 2010 UK election). Mark my words: this will come back to haunt Trudeau and the Liberal Party. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but after Brexit and Trump's election, with O'Leary in the picture and the aftermath of the Quebec attack exposing a very ugly underbelly of Canada that we would all rather pretend didn't exist, I am feeling very pessimistic (and I'm generally an optimist). And if my fear becomes reality, I am going to point the finger of blame straight where it belongs: at Trudeau and the Liberals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sullen Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Ser Reptitious said: I'm a bit late to the party, but I just want to chime in on the electoral reform front: I think JT is making a big mistake here, and I'm saying that as someone who goes back and forth between the NDP and the Liberals (and could even stomach a Red Tory, if such a species still existed). If he was thinking in purely partisan terms, he should have used his parliamentary majority to ram through PB (bonus: he could still claim to have fulfilled his campaign promise, even if in quite a cynical way), and if he wanted to do what is good for the country, rather than just his party, he would have instituted some form of European-style PR (and if his party had refused - which would have been quite likely - he should have called a referendum on it, thereby leaving it up to the people). As it is, he is giving wanna-be Trumps like Kevin O'Leary a real chance of ultimately becoming PM with a majority government. If that ever happens, Trudeau's legacy (no matter what else he may ultimately achieve) will likely be forever tarnished. And this could happen as soon as next election. Trudeau shouldn't underestimate the amount of people on the left that voted for him either strategically to get rid of Harper and/or because the NDP didn't have Jack Layton this time around. And a lot of those people will either vote for someone else (NDP/Greens) or stay at home, since they are precisely the constituency that voted for him in large part because of this promise (for a lesson on this look up "Liberal Democrats" and "tuition freeze promise" in the 2010 UK election). Mark my words: this will come back to haunt Trudeau and the Liberal Party. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but after Brexit and Trump's election, with O'Leary in the picture and the aftermath of the Quebec attack exposing a very ugly underbelly of Canada that we would all rather pretend didn't exist, I am feeling very pessimistic (and I'm generally an optimist). And if my fear becomes reality, I am going to point the finger of blame straight where it belongs: at Trudeau and the Liberals! Generally in agreement with that post, I do think Bernier will take it instead of O'Leary though. Also, I'd add the Bloc to the list of parties who lost ridings due to strategic voting to keep Harper out and might make a comeback these upcoming elections. We yet have to see who the opposition parties elect as leaders before making any concrete predictions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Agreed. ETA: btw, my young NDP friends hate Trudeau with a passion that brings foam in their mouths. They hated him before, and since the NDP took the position that they would discuss only proportional representation (Trudeau said that's why he gave up on reform, there were no alternatives being considered) they ratcheted up their hatred times ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Reptitious Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I truly hope that someone like Bernier prevails over O'Leary, but under our current system the danger will always remain that a demagogue could obtain complete power while only pandering to a vocal minority of voters. Trudeau had a chance to change this, but he refrained. I don't buy his excuse that he dropped electoral reform simply due to NDP intransigence. He has a governmental majority. If the political will was there, he could have pushed through whatever he wanted. But I suspect most of his party prefers the status quo, which has served the Liberals well in the past. But it is clearly a decision that puts party interests above what is best for the country. Fragile Bird: Yeah, the hardcore NDPers that I know feel much the same about Trudeau, probably because he represents a real threat to a significant chunk of their share of the vote. But part of that appeal came from channelling Jack Layton to a degree (i.e. refraining from campaigning negatively and presenting himself as a politican who will do things differently), and with this rather cynical move he may well have lost the "Trudeau Dippers" (something akin to the Reagan Democrats, if you will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 No one has mentioned this, but have you all seen a recent article saying Kellie Leitch has been advertising on Breitbart? I did not think she could go any lower, but my goodness, Conservatives over achieve, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Reptitious Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 She sounds like a real peach! Haven't heard about the Breitbart thing, but Twitter seems to be having a field day with her latest video: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/27/kellie-leitch-video_n_15051746.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Aw come on guys, there has to be something to talk about! The election in BC. A Senate resignation. The Tory leadership race. Well, maybe that last one is too boring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kairparavel Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Fine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jimmy-carter-trump-is-right-canadas-lumber-trade-practices-are-unfair/2017/05/09/249c7bb4-31b8-11e7-8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 45 minutes ago, kairparavel said: Fine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jimmy-carter-trump-is-right-canadas-lumber-trade-practices-are-unfair/2017/05/09/249c7bb4-31b8-11e7-8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html I started this answer meaning to make one or two points, but as I write it more and more points come up so that I have to say, no matter how nice a man Jimmy Carter is, he'll still shit on you in defence of fellow Americans. At least Carter is honest enough to admit his family is in the softwood lumber business. However, it's a shame he didn't also admit the WTO has twice ruled Canadian practices are appropriate. He also didn't talk about the vast acreages owned by the US government. And when it comes to price, he also fails to mention the Canadian dollar is down to 72 cents on the US dollar. I'm almost surprised he didn't call Canada a currency manipulator, but maybe that's being left to Trump to say these days. On top of that, he doesn't mention that, iirc, Canada used to supply more than 80% of the US market and the number is down to 70%, mainly because of all this US bullshit Canada's gone to the Chinese, increasing sales by more than 500% since the early 2000s. When you read a respected American say hey, let's supply 100% of our market with our own supplies, I really want to say to them then fuck you, we don't want your stinking milk either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kairparavel Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 The fact that it affects him personally makes the whole thing like sour grapes. Also, seeing as the WTO has never sided with the US on this dispute it might be best he switches to making wine with those grapes. Too bad Canada's got all the trees, Jimmy. And the good ones for building houses at that. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/10/john-mccain-jimmy-carter-and-canadian-lumber-ones-more-sympathetic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 I am sure that in his soul he lusts for Canadian trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 I was out in the garden yanking more mint out when the additional thought crossed my mind. He actually had the nerve to bitch about 40 lumber mills being opened in the US!!!!! Canadian jobs lost, American jobs created, and the man bitches about it! ETA: the yanking out mint was Freudian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sullen Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Concerning the Conservative leadership, do you people think that the Conservatives truly believe that Bernier can win Quebec by virtue of being a Francophone? It's a completely bonkers position to espouse, the guy would be poison for the province's farming industry, which is also the backbone of the province's Tory electorate outside of Quebec City. The guy's a complete joke, they can't seriously think he'll lead them to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted May 13, 2017 Author Share Posted May 13, 2017 20 hours ago, Sullen said: Concerning the Conservative leadership, do you people think that the Conservatives truly believe that Bernier can win Quebec by virtue of being a Francophone? It's a completely bonkers position to espouse, the guy would be poison for the province's farming industry, which is also the backbone of the province's Tory electorate outside of Quebec City. The guy's a complete joke, they can't seriously think he'll lead them to victory. The Conservative party seems dead set on making itself as unpalatable to the mainstream as possible. I guess that they are imitating the Republican party in that way also. Neither has any understanding of demographics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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