Timeline issues with young Cersei and more

[spoon89]

Why do you fully expect it? It's abundantly clear Aerys was determined to put Tywin in his place from 268 onwards. He was never going to let Tywin be a Targ king's grandfather. And Tywin would know that.

 

I agree that Aerys wasn't going to let it happen, but I think that Tywin deluding himself a bit by looked at the position that Aerys was in, balanced with his long friendship with him from childhood and everything he had done to aid him and believed that without a better match than Cersei, Aerys would have to accept the match.

 

Remember that the preferable practice for them was to marry within the family (no options), the alternative historical preference being house Velaryon and you have to assume that is also no suitable match there. Finally we have the option to marry to one of the paragon houses which gives him the limited options of Elia Martell, possibly Mina or Janna Tyrell (upjumped stewards if of age and unwed), waiting Catelyn or Lysa Tully, Lyanna Stark and Cersei (no options from Baratheon or Arryn). He ended going so far as to send Steffon Baratheon to Lys to try to find a suitable match. A finally announced the bretrothal to Elia after Steffon died on the return trip.

 

On the Dornish betrothal offers, I think Tywin was grief stricken over the loss of Joanna and made a big mistake by not accepting the betrothal of Jamie to Elia which would have taken her out as an option, painting Aerys further into the corner and would have assured that Jamie was secured as his heir with a strong tie to the Dornish whom also share a border with Reach.

[Chaircat Meow]

The logical explanation for Tywin's behaviour is that he saw marrying Cersei to Rhaegar as a means of revenge against Aerys, as the king would need to be deposed before the marriage could go ahead. There's no real reason to think Tywin was crazy enough to think Aerys would accept in 276. The woiaf makes it clear Aerys wanted to put Tywin in his place at this stage. The last thing Aerys would ever do would be to accept the marriage proposal. We also know Tywin determined on the marriage at the moment of maximum hostility between himself and Aerys, in 273, not in 276.

Tywin held the tourney so that all his lords could see him publicly refused and humiliated. This way, all of westeros would know he had revenged himself against Aerys when Rhaegar married Cersei against Aerys's wishes.

[Taenqyrhae]

It always baffled me how people take memories (in the books) as infallible pieces of information. In practice, memories, especially old ones, should be extremely inaccurate.

 

I'm looking at you, lemongaters.

I agree whole-heartedly.  As an example, I told an anecdote about Christmas Day, 1978 for most of my life - about how I got an Atari 2600 for Christmas and knew what it was by peeking through the paper, and I pretended to be surprised the next day so my parents would not be disappointed.  I was in my late 30s when I looked up the release date for the game cartridge I got that same Christmas with the system, and found out that it had to have been Christmas Day, 1981 at the earliest, and I suspect now that it was probably Christmas 1982 - something I was sure happened when I was 6 happened when I was 9 or 10…and that was one of the most pivotal memories of my young life.

[spoon89]

The logical explanation for Tywin's behaviour is that he saw marrying Cersei to Rhaegar as a means of revenge against Aerys, as the king would need to be deposed before the marriage could go ahead. There's no real reason to think Tywin was crazy enough to think Aerys would accept in 276. The woiaf makes it clear Aerys wanted to put Tywin in his place at this stage. The last thing Aerys would ever do would be to accept the marriage proposal. We also know Tywin determined on the marriage at the moment of maximum hostility between himself and Aerys, in 273, not in 276.

Tywin held the tourney so that all his lords could see him publicly refused and humiliated. This way, all of westeros would know he had revenged himself against Aerys when Rhaegar married Cersei against Aerys's wishes.

 

Rhaegar may be a grown man and the crown prince, but Aerys is the king. If he does not approve of a match he can break it, if they wed without his consent he'll have it annulled in the best case or give Rhaegar a divorce from Cersei with a headsman's axe in the worst.

[Chaircat Meow]

Rhaegar may be a grown man and the crown prince, but Aerys is the king. If he does not approve of a match he can break it, if they wed without his consent he'll have it annulled in the best case or give Rhaegar a divorce from Cersei with a headsman's axe in the worst.

Yeah, so he'll need to be deposed.

[Mithras]

It's abundantly clear Aerys was determined to put Tywin in his place from 268 onwards. He was never going to let Tywin be a Targ king's grandfather. And Tywin would know that.

 

What makes you think so? What happened in 268?

[Chaircat Meow]

What makes you think so? What happened in 268?

Because it is what the woiaf says.

[Mithras]

Because it is what the woiaf says.

 

I think there is an exaggeration about the degree of Aerys’ jealousy of Tywin (which might come from biased reports of Pycelle the Tywin fanboy). If it was that important, Aerys would fire Tywin or accept his resignation in 272 and show that he could rule the Realm alone. Yes, TWOIAF has lots of Aerys badmouthing Tywin which must have been reported by Pycelle. Even if they are all true, the character of Aerys makes it entirely possible that some lickspittles could have easily manipulated Aerys and put those words into his mouth. I think in the deterioration of the relationship between Aerys and Tywin, the role of the lickspittles who exploited Aerys’ weaknesses are most important.

 

Tywin saw Tytos in Aerys because they craved for appreciation and love. Later he saw it in Tyrion too. So, I don’t think Tywin considered Aerys as a lost cause or their relationship irreparable until very late.

 

Aerys has always been changeable and even erratic to a certain degree. What was really troubling him was that he could not have a surviving child until Viserys. That is clearly the most prevalent factor in driving him unstable pre-Duskendale. So, Tywin probably thought that Aerys could have turned back to his old self after having healthy children. I think only after the rejection in 276, Tywin was convinced that he did not have to have Aerys for the royal marriage.

[Chaircat Meow]

I think there is an exaggeration about the degree of Aerys’ jealousy of Tywin (which might come from biased reports of Pycelle the Tywin fanboy). If it was that important, Aerys would fire Tywin or accept his resignation in 272 and show that he could rule the Realm alone. Yes, TWOIAF has lots of Aerys badmouthing Tywin which must have been reported by Pycelle. Even if they are all true, the character of Aerys makes it entirely possible that some lickspittles could have easily manipulated Aerys and put those words into his mouth. I think in the deterioration of the relationship between Aerys and Tywin, the role of the lickspittles who exploited Aerys’ weaknesses are most important.
 
Tywin saw Tytos in Aerys because they craved for appreciation and love. Later he saw it in Tyrion too. So, I don’t think Tywin considered Aerys as a lost cause or their relationship irreparable until very late.
 
Aerys has always been changeable and even erratic to a certain degree. What was really troubling him was that he could not have a surviving child until Viserys. That is clearly the most prevalent factor in driving him unstable pre-Duskendale. So, Tywin probably thought that Aerys could have turned back to his old self after having healthy children. I think only after the rejection in 276, Tywin was convinced that he did not have to have Aerys for the royal marriage.

Just so long as we're clear your analysis is predicated on choosing to ignore/downplay the only wholistic account of events we have (i.e. that of the woiaf).

[Mithras]

Just so long as we're clear your analysis is predicated on choosing to ignore/downplay the only wholistic account of events we have (i.e. that of the woiaf).

 

This is a book written for the Lannisters and the author's primary source for the reign of Aerys is a Tywin fanboy. So, yes. I think I can be a little suspicious of what is stated in the text for this case.