Robert's Rebellion: Comprehensive Timeline

[Jon Weirgaryen]

(Can I quote two different persons in one post?, I'll figure it out)

 

There are numerous ways to do that. The lazy beginner's way, which I still think is among the best suited to me, is to go back and forth in the thread and collect every post you want to quote parts of with the "MultiQuote" button that sits between the "Report" and the "Quote" button below all posts in all active threads. When you'r done, there will be a floating button "Reply to X quoted posts", click that and type and edit away.

 

When your are feeling giddy, you can simply highlight some posts with the mouse pointer and drag them into your edit window. That sometimes works all right, but mostly it has unexpected results. And you can switch to BBCode mode in the upper left corner of the edit window and edit everything the text based way, if you get lost in the graphical edit.

[FlyingCanary]

 

There are numerous ways to do that. The lazy beginner's way, which I still think is among the best suited to me, is to go back and forth in the thread and collect every post you want to quote parts of with the "MultiQuote" button that sits between the "Report" and the "Quote" button below all posts in all active threads. When you'r done, there will be a floating button "Reply to X quoted posts", click that and type and edit away.

 

When your are feeling giddy, you can simply highlight some posts with the mouse pointer and drag them into your edit window. That sometimes works all right, but mostly it has unexpected results. And you can switch to BBCode mode in the upper left corner of the edit window and edit everything the text based way, if you get lost in the graphical edit.

 

 

(Can I quote two different persons in one post?, I'll figure it out)

 

 

Ok, Thanks

[The Twinslayer]

Hi! I'm new to the forums, but I have been a lurker from time to time.

 

I have made a comprehensive Timeline of the events of Robert's Rebellion

 

Robert's Rebellion: Comprehensive Timeline

This timeline only contains the assumptions and intervals between the events, not the precise dates of the events of Robert's Rebellion.

To be able to do that, we need to know the precise date of Robb’s conception after Ned and Catelyn’s wedding, which obviously depends on Robb’s name day, which, in turn, depends on the date of the chapter Bran II of AGOT. Once we know a date of Robb's conception, we can easily estimate the other dates of RR under the assumptions given throughout the essay.

That is because Robb's conception it is placed in a very narrow period of time (scarcely a fortnight), all events of RR are directly or indirectly related to it, and we can estimate the location in the year of Robb’s name day thanks to the events of A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings. That estimation can be done with the help of this secondary essay:
Precise relationship of Bran, Robb, Jon and Dany’s name days

It is a long read, but overall, I think it is worth it. I hope you like it, and if you disagree with anything, don't doubt to comment and leave your impressions.

Here is a thought.  Have you factored in these quotes from the chapter where Catelyn meets Renly in ACOK?  They are both about Loras Tyrell.  It does not matter whether Catelyn is right about this, it just matters that this is what she thinks:

 

The first is this:  "When they got his helm off, Catelyn was startled to see how young he was.  He could not have had more than two years on Robb."  This means Catelyn believes that Loras could have been two years older than Robb, but could not have been three years older than Robb.  Meaning that she believes that Robb might not have been born by the time Loras reached his second nameday - in Catelyn's mind, Robb could have been born several months after Loras' second name day.  

 

The second is this:  "The Knight of Flowers could not have reached his second name day when Robert slew Prince Rhaegar on the Trident."  This means that Robb had not been born the day that Rhaegar died.  According to your timeline, the Trident was two weeks before the Sack.  So, two weeks before the Sack, Catelyn was still pregnant with Robb.

 

Here is what Catelyn says about Robb's birth.  After her honeymoon, "Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south.  She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him."  So Ned was still fighting when Robb was born.  

 

So let's look at what happened after the Trident.  Ned is present for the Sack of King's Landing two weeks later, and then for Robert's coronation several days later when Tywin presented the dead childrens' bodies.  "Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south."  We know that Ned then lifted the siege of Storm's End, went to the tower of joy and saw Lyanna die, and then went to Starfall to return Dawn to the Daynes.  Ned's thoughts about fighting "the last battles of the war alone in the south" after the Sack of King's Landing echoes Catelyn's thought that Robb was born "while his father still warred in the south."  So it seems a safe bet that Robb was born some time after the Sack of King's Landing.  

 

A good way to reconcile this is to move the date of the Battle of the Bells a lot closer to the Battle of the Trident, and to allow time for more battles after the Sack of King's Landing.  I think this makes sense because we know about several battles that happened before the Battle of the Bells (Gulltown, Summerhall, etc.), but we don't know about any battles that took place between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident.  So if the year of war starts with Gulltown, I would put the Battle of the Bells around 6 months into the Rebellion, and the Sack of King's Landing at around month 8.  That gives Ned three or four months to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south.  Oh, and I think those battles were against the Tyrell forces, because Kevan Lannister says in ADWD that Highgarden and Mace Tyrell "supported [Aerys] to the bitter end and well beyond," which implies that Mace kept fighting "well beyond" the Sack of King's Landing.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

@The Twinslayer: I like your argument a lot. Especially the Loras' age knack was all news to me. Still there is the Chronology SSM 1040 around that tells us that Jon Snow was born around the time of the Trident and the Sack give or take a fortnight. And that Robb and Jon are of an age. Meaning Robb would have been born around the time of the Trident as well. Including the fortnight that would be allowed for Jon, maybe they both were born at the time of the sack, but not very much later.

[The Twinslayer]

@The Twinslayer: I like your argument a lot. Especially the Loras' age knack was all news to me. Still there is the Chronology SSM 1040 around that tells us that Jon Snow was born around the time of the Trident and the Sack give or take a fortnight. And that Robb and Jon are of an age. Meaning Robb would have been born around the time of the Trident as well. Including the fortnight that would be allowed for Jon, maybe they both were born at the time of the sack, but not very much later.

Thanks.  I actually don't think that SSM is reliable as an indicator of the date of Jon's birth.  If you read the whole thing, you see that GRRM said this in 1999, after he published Clash but before he published Storm.  He was responding to a reader who basically said "how could Catelyn be so dumb as to think that Ned hooked up with Ashara and conceived Jon down in Dorne some time after the Sack because if that happened it would have been obvious that Robb was a lot older than Jon."  GRRM's response is very interesting.  The first thing he does is to imply that Ned and Ashara could have met up some time during the Rebellion, since Ashara could move around.  So far, so good.  Then he says that Ashara lived with Elia in King's Landing in the early years of the Rhaegar-Elia marriage -- and that this is a "tidbit" from Storm.  Now, we know that isn't true because first, this "tidbit" got left on the cutting room floor -- he didn't use it in the published version of Storm.  And we know he changed his mind about this, because the World Book says that Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone during that time period.  In other words, the SSM is not correct, it just reflects something GRRM was thinking about doing when he was drafting Storm and then decided not to do.

 

Here  is my theory.  GRRM was drafting a chapter of Storm that would have told about a meeting between Ned and Ashara that happened around 9 months before Jon's birth -- something that would get readers thinking about the Daynes and also about Jon's parentage.  But he eventually decided not to use it.  Instead, he gave us the scene where Ned Dayne meets up with Arya and talks about Jon's parentage.  

 

Here is the full text of the SSM: 

 

Question:  "I'm trying to figure out how Jon's day of birth fits in the timeline of the war, and assumed you wouldn't just tell me when he was exactly born.:-)

 

In his first chapter at the Wall, Jon reflects that his name day passed a fortnight before. I assume this was his 15th one. Dany's 14th name day was at the end of her chapter, on the far side of the Dothraki sea.

 

Now, if this was after Jon's chapter -- and (apparent) name day, it could be concluded, that Jon was born more than 1 year before Dany, and at least 3 months before Queen Rhaella left King's Landing.

 

I will spare you the rest of my speculations about the date of Jon's birth, since their only real conclusion is that Catelyn seems a little thick when she thinks that Ned fathered Jon as he returned 'Dawn' to Ashara Dayne."

 

Answer by GRRM:  "Ah... I see what you're driving at here, I guess...

 

I will confess, the chronology of these books sometimes gives me fits. You would not believe how often I reshuffle the chapters, trying to find the one true perfect sequence. And then just when I have it exactly right, my editors weigh in from both sides of the Atlantic, each suggesting a slightly different chapter order.

 

It is always a balancing act, since I want the chapters to have a certain dramatic flow, I worry about certain storylines being forgotten if they are "off stage" too long, and there is a constant tug of war between character time and reader time (a character may have two chapters, taking place one day apart, but if two hundred pages of stuff about other characters separate those two chapters, the reader is going to perceive a long time as having passed, even if I begin the second chapter with, "When he woke up the very next morning..."

 

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.

 

I do intend to publish a timeline as an appendix in one or other of the later volumes, but even when I do, I am not certain I'm going to start detailing things down to months and days. With such a huge cast of characters, just keeping track of the =years= drives me half mad sometimes. Not to mention the colors of everybody's eyes.

 

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

 

The rest I will save for the books."

[FlyingCanary]

Here is a thought.  Have you factored in these quotes from the chapter where Catelyn meets Renly in ACOK?  They are both about Loras Tyrell.  It does not matter whether Catelyn is right about this, it just matters that this is what she thinks:

 

The first is this:  "When they got his helm off, Catelyn was startled to see how young he was.  He could not have had more than two years on Robb."  This means Catelyn believes that Loras could have been two years older than Robb, but could not have been three years older than Robb.  Meaning that she believes that Robb might not have been born by the time Loras reached his second nameday - in Catelyn's mind, Robb could have been born several months after Loras' second name day.  

 

The second is this:  "The Knight of Flowers could not have reached his second name day when Robert slew Prince Rhaegar on the Trident."  This means that Robb had not been born the day that Rhaegar died.  According to your timeline, the Trident was two weeks before the Sack.  So, two weeks before the Sack, Catelyn was still pregnant with Robb.

 

Here is what Catelyn says about Robb's birth.  After her honeymoon, "Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south.  She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him."  So Ned was still fighting when Robb was born.  

 

So let's look at what happened after the Trident.  Ned is present for the Sack of King's Landing two weeks later, and then for Robert's coronation several days later when Tywin presented the dead childrens' bodies.  "Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south."  We know that Ned then lifted the siege of Storm's End, went to the tower of joy and saw Lyanna die, and then went to Starfall to return Dawn to the Daynes.  Ned's thoughts about fighting "the last battles of the war alone in the south" after the Sack of King's Landing echoes Catelyn's thought that Robb was born "while his father still warred in the south."  So it seems a safe bet that Robb was born some time after the Sack of King's Landing.  

 

A good way to reconcile this is to move the date of the Battle of the Bells a lot closer to the Battle of the Trident, and to allow time for more battles after the Sack of King's Landing.  I think this makes sense because we know about several battles that happened before the Battle of the Bells (Gulltown, Summerhall, etc.), but we don't know about any battles that took place between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident.  So if the year of war starts with Gulltown, I would put the Battle of the Bells around 6 months into the Rebellion, and the Sack of King's Landing at around month 8.  That gives Ned three or four months to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south.  Oh, and I think those battles were against the Tyrell forces, because Kevan Lannister says in ADWD that Highgarden and Mace Tyrell "supported [Aerys] to the bitter end and well beyond," which implies that Mace kept fighting "well beyond" the Sack of King's Landing.

 

No, I haven't factored those quotes. And I don't think they are very helpfull to estimate Robb's birthday because we don't know exactly the name day of Loras. The other way will be more helpfull: try to estimate Loras' name day through Robb's name day.

 

About the first quote. For me that means: Loras could not have more than 2 years and 1 second from Robb.

 

The second quote only tells us that Loras name day had not arrived yet when the Battle of the Trident happened. And that is consistent with the fact above.

 

It it also consistant with the Timeline: Jon's birthday is placed between Daenerys' conception and 1 month after Daenerys' conception (or 2 weeks after the Sack of KL). And Jon is believed to be younger than Robb by Catelyn and Robert. So it would be logical that Robb's birthday was before the Trident. And that can be assumed without the need of Loras' name day.

 

The Battle of the Bells does not have to be moved. If it is moved, it will increase the maximum durations of the events previous to it. And I think they are already unlikely

 

You say that the BotB would be around month 6 (which is acceptable) and the Battle of the Trident would be at month 8, but:

 

How would there be only 2 months between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident assuming that Lyanna's pregnancy lasted 9 months, that Jon was conceived after Robb, because both Catelyn and Robert believe that Ned had an adventure after N&C's wedding, and knowing that Robb was conceived after N&C's wedding (maximum a fortnight after it)?

 

That lead me to assume that the distance between that  battles is 8 months and a week minimum.

 

About the SSM: Yes, it was made in 1999, but also note that the majority of facts and quotes supporting R+L=J are in the first 3 books. And the "fact" that Jon was born around 8-9 months before Daenerys is highly consistent with the timeline. If Jon was born more that 9 months before Daenerys, then that would mean that the duration of Lyanna's postpartum complications have to be extended to unrealistic levels (See previous comments in this thread)

 

That last argument about Lyanna's postpartum complications also applies to the distance between the Sack of KL and the event of the Tower of Joy, because Jon's maximum name day would be 1 month after Daenerys conception, and therefore, it we assume that the maximum time of Lyanna's postpartum complications was 1 months and a half, then the distance between Daenerys conception and the Tower of Joy is maximum 2 months and a half

[FlyingCanary]

One thing that I want to point out is that (although I don't believe in it) my timeline is in some way consistent with N+A=J

 

That is because

 

The SSM only states that Jon and Dany's birthdays are separated 8 or 9 months, meaning that between Dany's conception and Jon's birthday there is a month maximum or thereabouts..

 

But it doesn't tell us who is his mother. If Jon was born from Ashara Dayne at that time, it would be consistent with the facts and assumptions of the Timeline. For that to be true, Ned would have to conceive Jon after he rode off to war after his wedding with Catelyn. That would mean that the distance between he rode off to war and his arrival to Starfall is minimum 9 months + the time for Ned to met Ashara and had a child with her.

 

But as I say, I don't believe it.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I'm getting weird quoting codes when I push "quote" hopefully, all will go alright.

(edit: as you might have noticed, it took quite a few edits to display everything properly. Don't know what happened).

@Rhaenys: Do you think I should also add Rhaenys' age to some avail? :)

 
Ran recently revealed that the app's newest content contains world book info. Here, when a character's age is mentioned in a year, we should assume according to him that that is he age the character would turn that year, as a maestet (Yandel, in this case) would not be taking into account what day of the year somethig happened, and whether the character in question already had had his/her nameday that year. I saw an exception for Aegon III, and the rule doesn't apply for 'nearly '#age' '. So Rhaenys might be such a case.

However, we should remember that Tywin was still at court with his high hopes during Rhaenys' birth, and a lot of his planning would have depended on this birth. Elia dying in childbirth would have been in Tywins interest, as it would open the door to renewed chances of making Cersei Rhaegars wife. Elia's child being male or female would have been of great interest too.

Tywins doubts about whether she was still two or three thus suggest to me that her nameday was close.

Whether the apps statement can count as her nameday definitely having passed..

I'd say the chances are good, but more on that in a later post (these quoting codes really are acting strange, I can't even quote your entire post..).

That's a very clever but also complicated argumentation. JonCon may also have been mistaken. And saying 18 years ago if it is still a few months short of it, would also be incorrect, strictly speaiking. But people do it all the time, unless they are older than 20 and talk about their age. Since Rhaego's birth seems to back it, the argument passes :) I now have the BOB earliest 282-11-18.

Thank you.As to JonCon possibly being mistaken... It was the day he failed Rhaegar, and lost all. From his chapters we can see that the day is grifted into his memory (is that how you say it properly in English?). That days haunts him. I doubt he'd forget the day.

I found Petyr's age mentions so very convoluted I could not make head or tail of it. So I looked at your writing on the wiki and also in the ASoIaF timeline for AGoT 18 Catelyn IV which leads to 298-08-06. So Petyr maybe turns 30 in the year 298 after 298-08-06 meaning he is born after 268-08-06 and shy of 15 until at least 283-08-06 in order for his duel with Brandon. Meaning from that point of view the duel should be well after 282-08-06 and that should be well before Lyanna's abduction. Unfortunately there's no way to fit that together into the timeline.

Why can't you use that? I've used ot before without problems..

That's my impression too. Do you know of some handy knowledge to back that claim up, easily? Robb, Jon and Dany's birth years are what I'd come up with as far as we know them. And besides?

That's where Rhaenys comes in again :)But also.. If the war ended in the middle of the year, why did Jon Arryn wait so long to travel to Dorne and talk of end of the war? In addition, Quellon Greyjoy joined the rebellion after news of Rhaegars death reached Pyke, and died in the few bloody battles that were fought by the Irommen. When Balon returned to Puke after hos fathers death, he began to prepare for war 'at once', and is said to have prepared for five years, until he declared himself king in 289 AC. If the war had not ended late in 283 AC, that count would be off as well. Quellon dying late in 283 AC could make Balon return home early 284 AC, but the war ending earlier, wouldn't. It would be seen as six years of preparing, not five (think along the lines of 'Maegor was 13 in the year 25 AC when he did this act and that act', without the maester checking whether the things Maegor did occurred before or after his nameday).This, and Dany's and Jon's and Robb's namedays currently come to mind. When I think of something else, I'll post it.

This is so good, I put it into the Simple Robellion Timeline structure. Will back it up with the chapters where that's mentioned shortly.

:)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

As to Loras... What value does Catelyns estimation of 'couldn't have reached his second nameday yet when Robert killed Rhaegar'?

Catelyn won't know Loras' exact date of birth, and Ned already shows us that Loras can easily be mistaken for younger than he actually is..

"Lord Eddard! The shout came from the west side of the hall as a handsome stripling of a boy strode forth boldly. Out of his armor, Ser Loras Tyrell looked even younger than his sixteen years. He wore pale blue silk, his belt a linked chain of golden roses, the sigil of his House.

So I'm not sure we can accurately use Loras' nameday for anything.
Margaery, on the other hand...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

See, here the quoting codes look normal..

There are two posibilities assuming that JonCon made that statement at the mid of 300 AC:
 
1) That the Battle of the bells was in late 282 and therefore his 18th anniversary has no happened yet, but will happen in that year.
2) That the Battle of the bells was in early 283 and therefore his 17th anniversary happened already in that year.
 
The two are possible, but the last one forces to extends the events previous to the Battle of the Bells to "unlikely" durations.

Not if you believe Lyanna disappeared only past the middle of the year, like I do. :) I'll explain more below.

 
That is why I put the maximum date of Lyanna's abduction at 01/04/282. Because with the coming of the new year (let's say 15/01/282) Rhaegar had taken to the road on a jorney that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. There is some time between Rhaegar taken to the road and Lyanna's abduction. To the road, for me indicates that he was already on land, on westeros, not sailing from dragonstone. So, that would be, (for me) a maximum of 2.5 months for Rhaegar to arrive at the riverlands and abduct Lyanna.
 
 
 
I haven't check out Littlefinger's name day, but I had always assumed that the duel was between the tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna's abduction, so I'll put it in late 281 AC, but when I had finished of examine Littlefinger's age, I'll give you a better answer.

Brandon was 20 during the duel, 20 when he died, and born in 262 AC. That much we know for a fact. So both duel and his death clearly occurred in 282 AC. Not late 281 AC.

LF is still shy of 30 (thus 29 or younger)when Catelyn meets with him in KL in 298 AC. The estimation of this date has been put at early August.

The minimum passage of time (in case of potential distrust of the estimation) can also be calculated.

Joff's nameday is day 1
- a fortnight later, Jon Arryn dies
- Cersei was on her way to CR and needed to return to KL, and Tywin needed to be asked to take Robert Arryn as a ward. As he was most likely travelling with Cersei, that will barely have taken extra time. Lysa only fled KL after Cersei's return, and the fact that Lysa left KL is mentioned in Roberts letter to Ned. By the time the letter arrives in Winterfell, Robert is already on his way. While we cannot say with certainty how much time has passed, an estimation of at least two weeks from Arryns death until the letter is sent, won't be far off.
-Robert travels to Winterfell after sending the letter. That takes him, based on the time passages mentioned during the journey from Winterfell to KL, some 2 months.
- Robert stays at Winterfell for about a month
- the journey back to KL has been estimated to have lasted some 2,5 months, as it currently stands. (It takes 8 days to reach the Barrowlands, where they learned abot Dany, crossing the Neck takes 12 days, there are multiple days of no traveling because Robert wants to hunt, Arya's disappearance takes up 4 days, and from the Trident to KL takes them, eihout stops, a fortnight; compare those distances with all distances unaccounted for)
- Catelyn, of course, arrives in KL sooner. According to Brans dream, though, she has yet to arrive after Lady has died. (so about two months after Ned and court left Winterfell. With her deciding to leave 12 days after court left to travel south, and the need to travel to a ship, and for that ship to travel south, 1,5 months of travel for her sounds to be on the short end.. but she had haste, so ok).

That's the day she meets LF, an estimated 5,5 months since Joff's nameday, at the very minimum.

LF was said to have been scarcely 15 at the duel. Being shy of 30 in 298 AC, makes it impossible to have been 15 in 282 AC. Which is why I've argued that 'scarcely fifteen' is Cats way of rounding up. 14 years old would still ft, I think, but it would seem most logical that you wouldn't call a 13 year old boy such. So LF's nameday will have passed already by the time of the duel, which brings us further into the year.


Rhaegar 'ultimately' came face to face with Lyanna, which to me suggests that he did other things first. Consider his timing. Winter was at its worst, yet Rhaegar had to travel into the riverlands. Couldn't it wait? Apprebtly not.

There's a theory that he went to see the Ghost of High Heart, as the news of Elia being unable to birth the third head would have been disturbing to him. Especially in such harsh weather, travel would have been very slow.

 
Yes, the entire war seems to have ended at the second half of 283, but that is compatible with the Battle of the Bells being in late 282.
 
I have already made a tiny and unspecific timeline and relationship of Bran, Robb, Jon and Dany's name days and conceptions that depends on the day that Bran fell of the tower in AGOT Bran II.
 
Precise relationship of Bran, Robb, Jon and Danys name days
 
Assuming AGOT Bran II was at 05/08/298 from ASOIAF Timeline (date that seems that have been examined and possible) and that Robb's day was 2 weeks minimum from Bran's assassination attempt because Catelyn remembered that Robb was only 14, and that Robb's name day has to be before Jon's, and Jon's name day is a fortnight before he hears the news that Bran woke up, I estimated that Robb's conception minimum date was at 10/09/282 and his maximum (from the assumptions of the durations of the RR events made in my timeline) was at 08/11/282. If the Battle of the Bells was in 283 (and it was before N&C's wedding), that would mean that the dates and durations of the previous dates have to be extended, and I think that I have already put "unlikely" durations for my maximums already.

 
I haven't been able to read that yet, I only have a very small screen available, which makes reading it a bit difficult. Will try to read, as soon as possible, though.

ASOIAF timeline will be updated within the next month or two (don't pin me down if it is a bit later). Some things have changed, for the better.

 
Yes, Rossart was Hand for a fortnight. I think that this passage states that Rossart was named Hand inmediatly after Lord Chelsted:
 
A Storm of Swords - Jaime V
He did all he could to dissuade him. He reasoned, he jested, he threatened, and finally he begged. When that failed he took off his chain of office and flung it down on the floor. Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer.
 
The same night, Aerys had sex with Rhaella, wich resulted in Dany's conception. And Jon Darry was present. And he die at the Battle of the Trident. Assuming that Rossart was hand for a fortnight, that means that between Dany's conception and the Sack of KL, there is a fortnight. And I think it is safe to assume that Aerys didn't ahd sex with Rhaella after that because:
 
A Feast for Crows - Jaime II
[b]Jaime had only seen Rhaella once after that, the morning of the day she left for Dragonstone.
 
And Jaime was with Aerys nearly all the time. If Aerys had sex with Rhaella after that, Jaime would have to be guarding the king outside the room. Anyway, if he did have sex with Rhaella after that, the time of Dany's birth would not change, since we know for sure that she was born 9 turns after Rhaella left KL.

That quote only shows who became Aerys' New Hand, not when he named Rossart to that office. Will try to edit in the twoiaf quote in a bit.

  
How do you know that Catelyn and Robb's vitist to the Twins was in 299?. Not questioning it, just asking information for it :)

The ages of Big and Little Walder. They are both 8 and 9 during 300 AC, thus born in 291 AC. Big Walder had turned 8 when Cat accepted them as wards, while Little Walder was still 7. Big Walder can only have been 8 if it was already 299 AC.

 
That seems interesting. Also, good job about the birth of Rhaego.
 
Anyway, that fits in my timeline:
 
I have stimated that Daenerys' birthday was between 24/03/294 and 08/06/284.

I pesosonally support the estimation closer to the maximum :)

  
The age of Rhaenys also fits If she was 3 years old around 01/09/283 minimum, becuase my maximum estimation of the end of the Siege of Storm's End is in 01/10/283 and therefore, the Sack would be around 22/09/283.
 
What do you think? :)
 

That would require the assumption that Elia's first pregnancy had lasted only 8 months, or am I misreading this?
Also, only 9 days between the Sack and the lifting of the Siege? Wouldn't that be a bit too short?

I could post my idea of the timeline tomorrow or so, if you're interested? So we can compare..

[FlyingCanary]

Brandon was 20 during the duel, 20 when he died, and born in 262 AC. That much we know for a fact. So both duel and his death clearly occurred in 282 AC. Not late 281 AC.

LF is still shy of 30 (thus 29 or younger)when Catelyn meets with him in KL in 298 AC. The estimation of this date has been put at early August.

The minimum passage of time (in case of potential distrust of the estimation) can also be calculated.

Joff's nameday is day 1
- a fortnight later, Jon Arryn dies
- Cersei was on her way to CR and needed to return to KL, and Tywin needed to be asked to take Robert Arryn as a ward. As he was most likely travelling with Cersei, that will barely have taken extra time. Lysa only fled KL after Cersei's return, and the fact that Lysa left KL is mentioned in Roberts letter to Ned. By the time the letter arrives in Winterfell, Robert is already on his way. While we cannot say with certainty how much time has passed, an estimation of at least two weeks from Arryns death until the letter is sent, won't be far off.
-Robert travels to Winterfell after sending the letter. That takes him, based on the time passages mentioned during the journey from Winterfell to KL, some 2 months.
- Robert stays at Winterfell for about a month
- the journey back to KL has been estimated to have lasted some 2,5 months, as it currently stands. (It takes 8 days to reach the Barrowlands, where they learned abot Dany, crossing the Neck takes 12 days, there are multiple days of no traveling because Robert wants to hunt, Arya's disappearance takes up 4 days, and from the Trident to KL takes them, eihout stops, a fortnight; compare those distances with all distances unaccounted for)
- Catelyn, of course, arrives in KL sooner. According to Brans dream, though, she has yet to arrive after Lady has died. (so about two months after Ned and court left Winterfell. With her deciding to leave 12 days after court left to travel south, and the need to travel to a ship, and for that ship to travel south, 1,5 months of travel for her sounds to be on the short end.. but she had haste, so ok).

That's the day she meets LF, an estimated 5,5 months since Joff's nameday, at the very minimum.

LF was said to have been scarcely 15 at the duel. Being shy of 30 in 298 AC, makes it impossible to have been 15 in 282 AC. Which is why I've argued that 'scarcely fifteen' is Cats way of rounding up. 14 years old would still ft, I think, but it would seem most logical that you wouldn't call a 13 year old boy such. So LF's nameday will have passed already by the time of the duel, which brings us further into the year.


Rhaegar 'ultimately' came face to face with Lyanna, which to me suggests that he did other things first. Consider his timing. Winter was at its worst, yet Rhaegar had to travel into the riverlands. Couldn't it wait? Apprebtly not.

There's a theory that he went to see the Ghost of High Heart, as the news of Elia being unable to birth the third head would have been disturbing to him. Especially in such harsh weather, travel would have been very slow.

 

Holly shit! I have to admit that Littlefingers age fucks up the timeline. All timelines!. It just doesn't make sense. Between 282 and 298 there are 16 years. Therefore, if he is "shy of 30" at the second half of 298, that means that he would be shy of 14 at the second half of 282. If he was "scarcely 15" at the duel with Brandon, that would meant that the abduction of Lyanna has not happened until the second half of 283. Therefore, Robb and Jon would have to be born in 284, and Daenerys in 285.

 

That could be because:

 

1) Catelyn is not being very precise

2) GRRM has made an inconsistency.

 

It would have more sense if he was shy of 31 in 298. That way, he would be shy of 15 or scarcely 15 at the second half of 282, like you suggest, and therefore Lyanna's abduction was not until the second half of 282.

Or even that he was shy of 32 in 298. That would put the duel in the second half of 281 AC. After the Tourney of Harrenhal, and before "Rhaegar had taken to the road at the beginning of the year 282 AC"

 

But being shy of 30 in 298 screws all timelines.

 

Rhaegar 'ultimately' came face to face with Lyanna, which to me suggests that he did other things first. Consider his timing. Winter was at its worst, yet Rhaegar had to travel into the riverlands. Couldn't it wait? Apprebtly not.

There's a theory that he went to see the Ghost of High Heart, as the news of Elia being unable to birth the third head would have been disturbing to him. Especially in such harsh weather, travel would have been very slow.

 
I haven't been able to read that yet, I only have a very small screen available, which makes reading it a bit difficult. Will try to read, as soon as possible, though.

ASOIAF timeline will be updated within the next month or two (don't pin me down if it is a bit later). Some things have changed, for the better.

 

I would like read that Ghost of High Heart theory. It seems possible and interesting.

 

Looking forward to see your response on my precise relationship of name days. I think it is very consistent.

 

Good news to the change of the ASOIAF Timeline.

 

 

That quote only shows who became Aerys' New Hand, not when he named Rossart to that office. Will try to edit in the twoiaf quote in a bit.

 

Yes, it does not necessary means that Aerys named him the next second he burned Lord Chelsted. But I think it took a few days maximum, given that Aerys had predilection for his favourite alchemist. And increasing a few days the distance between Dany's conception and the Sack of KL is not noticeable. It stills takes about 2 weeks and a few days for Rhaegar to go from KL to the Trident, and then to Ned to go from the Trident to KL. Also, it has to be noted that Tywin arrived before Ned at KL, so I could only assume that he was prepared for what consequences would bring the outcome of the Battle of the Trident.

 

The ages of Big and Little Walder. They are both 8 and 9 during 300 AC, thus born in 291 AC. Big Walder had turned 8 when Cat accepted them as wards, while Little Walder was still 7. Big Walder can only have been 8 if it was already 299 AC.

 

Here, again, there are two possibilities:

 

1) At late 298, Big Walder had turned 8 and Little Walder is still 7 and would be 8 at even more late 298 or early 299. They would be 9 and 8 at the first half of year 300 AC.

2) At early 299, Big Walder had turned 8 and Little Walder is still 7. That would mean that early in 300 AC they would be 9 and 8.

 

The two options are probable, but given that the red comet was at the beginning of year 299, and Ned was beheaded before that, and (I think) the Battle of the wispering wood was before Ned's death, then it would make sense that Robb and Catelyn's visit at the twins was in late 298.

 

That would require the assumption that Elia's first pregnancy had lasted only 8 months, or am I misreading this?
Also, only 9 days between the Sack and the lifting of the Siege? Wouldn't that be a bit too short?

I could post my idea of the timeline tomorrow or so, if you're interested? So we can compare..

 

Ups! about Rhaenys name day. It would be minimum at 01/10/280 not 01/09/280. And my maximum of the Siege of Storm's End is in 01/10/283. That would explain why Tywin was not sure if Rhaenys was 3 years old or not.

 

About the distance between the Sack of KL and the end of the Siege. At first, my minimum was a week and my maximum 1,75 months assuming that Jon was conceived a month after Daenerys' conception and Lyanna's postpartum complications lasted 1,5 months maximum, leaving a week for Ned to go from the Siege to the ToJ.

 

If the distance from the Siege to the ToJ is increased, then the distance from the Sack of KL to the Siege has to be decreased. Or the duration of Lyanna's postpartum complications has to be increased.

 

The reason why I put the distance between the Sack of KL and the end of the Siege at nearly a week, was to adjust the intervals of minimums and maximums between the duration of the Siege [1-7], the distance between the beginning of the Siege and N&C's wedding [1-3] and the distance between the Sack of KL to the end of the Siege [6-7].

 

That makes sense if the minimum of the duration of the Siege [1-7] is 10 months. But if we increase the minimum of the duration of the Siege to 11 months, we can also increase the maximum of the distance between the Sack of KL to the end of the Siege to 1.25 months.

 

Yes, I am interested. Here, we can make the most accurate Robert's Rebellion Timeline

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 
Holly shit! I have to admit that Littlefingers age fucks up the timeline. All timelines!. It just doesn't make sense. Between 282 and 298 there are 16 years. Therefore, if he is "shy of 30" at the second half of 298, that means that he would be shy of 14 at the second half of 282. If he was "scarcely 15" at the duel with Brandon, that would meant that the abduction of Lyanna has not happened until the second half of 283. Therefore, Robb and Jon would have to be born in 284, and Daenerys in 285.
 
That could be because:
 
1) Catelyn is not being very precise
2) GRRM has made an inconsistency.
 
It would have more sense if he was shy of 31 in 298. That way, he would be shy of 15 or scarcely 15 at the second half of 282, like you suggest, and therefore Lyanna's abduction was not until the second half of 282.
Or even that he was shy of 32 in 298. That would put the duel in the second half of 281 AC. After the Tourney of Harrenhal, and before "Rhaegar had taken to the road at the beginning of the year 282 AC"
 
But being shy of 30 in 298 screws all timelines.

A quick reply to this part first.

What happened here is that GRRM did created an inconsistency, which means (of course) that Catelyn is either rounding up or down, or misremembering.

I'd say that 'shy of thirty' is more precise than 'scarcely fifteen', and that, despite the fact that he had been 14, she remembers him as 'scarcely fifteen'. It might be because English is not my first language. It comes across to me as 'barely fifteen', which could mean he was fourteen, and Cat was rounding up in her mind.

That would mean he turns 30 after Cat meets with him in agot.

Perhaps Sansa will mention his age a few more times in Winds. That might help :)

[FlyingCanary]

A quick reply to this part first.

What happened here is that GRRM did created an inconsistency, which means (of course) that Catelyn is either rounding up or down, or misremembering.

I'd say that 'shy of thirty' is more precise than 'scarcely fifteen', and that, despite the fact that he had been 14, she remembers him as 'scarcely fifteen'. It might be because English is not my first language. It comes across to me as 'barely fifteen', which could mean he was fourteen, and Cat was rounding up in her mind.

That would mean he turns 30 after Cat meets with him in agot.

Perhaps Sansa will mention his age a few more times in Winds. That might help :)

 

English is not my mother language too.

 

But even that way:

• Littlefinger's name day would have to be late in the year 298 to be scarcely 30 years old when Catelyn thinks he is shy of 30.
• He would still be shy of 14 (or turn 14) in the second half of 282.
• Let's assume that for Catelyn (misremembering), shy of 14 means that he is "scarcely 15". That is a big mistake in her part.
• That would put the minimum date of the duel at lthe second half of 282
• Lyanna's abduction would be in late 282 or early 283
• Early 283 is imposible because Robb's minimum name day will be at 15/12/283 (considering only the minimum duration of RR's events in my timeline). Jon's name day would fall in 284. If Robb's name day was a few days past when Catelyn released Jaime in ACOK, it would be only 15 days apart of Joffrey's wedding.
• If we estimate Robb's minimum birthday through the date of AGOT Bran II, it would take place at 10/06/283 and his minimum conception will be at 10/09/282. (Assuming AGOT Bran II, when he fell off the tower, was in 08/05/298 (DD/MM/YYY)).
• When Robb and Bran fought the wildlings in AGOT Bran V and get Osha to Winterfell, they were already 15 and 8 years old. This event would be in the second half of 298, but with space enough to allow the other AGOT events to take place. The sighting of the red comet would be our reference to early 299 AC.
• That means that Robb's maximum birthday was in the second half of 283, but with "space enough to allow the events of AGOT ahead of Bran V to take place". For this, would be 01/10/283 a good maximum?
• If 01/10/283 is the maximum, that would meant that the maximum date of Robb's conception would be at 01/01/283.
• That would put the Battle of the Bells in 282.
• Therefore, from the supposed duel in the second half of 282 and the Battle of the Bells would have been a very narrow period of time iwhere the early events of RR would have to take place.
• Rhaegar had taken to the road at the beginning of 282. Lyanna's abduction would be late in 282.

 

To reconcile this, I think it is better to assume that Catelyn was not being very precise, and she though that "nearly 32 years old" was "shy of 30". Maybe she didn't remembered very well Littlefingers name day.

 

That would put the duel in late 281 AC, after the tourney of Harrenhal, and before Rhaegar had taken to the road at the beginning of 282 AC.

 

Edit: Grammar

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 
I would like read that Ghost of High Heart theory. It seems possible and interesting.

 
Rhaegar was clearly into the promised prince prophecy. He needed three children, or so the theory assumes. After all, the dragon has three heads. Rhaenys was the first, and Aegon the second. Yet the news that Elia could not birth another child, would seemingly prevent Rhaegar from getting that third head.

The Ghost of High Heart is the dwarf woman brought to court by Jenny of Oldstones, and had been at Summerhall during the Tragedy. We know that Rhaegar visited the ruins of Summerhal, at times, and there has been speculation that he might t times have met up with her, there. Perhaps, they never met until 282 AC though, as Summerhall was not what the Ghost liked to think off, so she probably wouldn't have liked to be there much. Still, she was the one who had predicted that the promised prince would come forth from the line of Aerys and Rhaella. We've seen how accurately she can predict thing, and undouvtly she would have needed to proof her worth at court before Aegon V and Jaehaerhs II would have trusted her. Rhaegar would have known about her thrustworthyness. So who could best help hum figure out what to do bow that Elia couldn't birth the third head? The Ghost. Which is why he ventures out into the riverlands. That's where she lives.

Or so the theory goes :)

 
 

 
Yes, it does not necessary means that Aerys named him the next second he burned Lord Chelsted. But I think it took a few days maximum, given that Aerys had predilection for his favourite alchemist. And increasing a few days the distance between Dany's conception and the Sack of KL is not noticeable. It stills takes about 2 weeks and a few days for Rhaegar to go from KL to the Trident, and then to Ned to go from the Trident to KL. Also, it has to be noted that Tywin arrived before Ned at KL, so I could only assume that he was prepared for what consequences would bring the outcome of the Battle of the Trident.

Agreed on Tywin having prepared an army, ready to strike whoever's side lost on the Trident.

If I'm right, that between the Trident and the Sack, about two weeks pass. Same for Rhaegar marching to the Trident. So, about a month, in total. News of Rhaegar would have reached KL quickly, and Aerys easily could have send Rhaella away the next day. Some two weeks, thus, after Dany's conception (if indeed Chelsted was the night of her conception). Dany says she was born nine months after the flight.. nine months exactly? Quite unlikely. Perhaps eight month and three weeks, for example. Perhaps Rhaella had been late in giving birth. It changes nothing.

If Rhaegar had still been in KL when Aerys named a new Hand, why wasn't Rhaegar named to the office?

 
Here, again, there are two possibilities:
 
1) At late 298, Big Walder had turned 8 and Little Walder is still 7 and would be 8 at even more late 298 or early 299. They would be 9 and 8 at the first half of year 300 AC.
2) At early 299, Big Walder had turned 8 and Little Walder is still 7. That would mean that early in 300 AC they would be 9 and 8.
 
The two options are probable, but given that the red comet was at the beginning of year 299, and Ned was beheaded before that, and (I think) the Battle of the wispering wood was before Ned's death, then it would make sense that Robb and Catelyn's visit at the twins was in late 298.

 
You cannot have turend eight in 298 AC and still be eight in 300 AC. That's clearly impossible. Especially since Big Walder was the older one of the two.

They are eight and nine in 300 AC. Thus they were eight turning nine in 300, meaning they were born in 291 AC. Both of them. While Little Walder, being seven when Cat is at the Twins, doesn't give us a clue to the timing, Big Walder is already eight, and born in 291 AC, cannot have been eight in 298 AC, only in 299 and 300.

Ned was still alive at the Whispering Wood, and died mere data before the comment was sighted in the North.
 

 
About the distance between the Sack of KL and the end of the Siege. At first, my minimum was a week and my maximum 1,75 months assuming that Jon was conceived a month after Daenerys' conception and Lyanna's postpartum complications lasted 1,5 months maximum, leaving a week for Ned to go from the Siege to the ToJ.
 
If the distance from the Siege to the ToJ is increased, then the distance from the Sack of KL to the Siege has to be decreased. Or the duration of Lyanna's postpartum complications has to be increased.
 
The reason why I put the distance between the Sack of KL and the end of the Siege at nearly a week, was to adjust the intervals of minimums and maximums between the duration of the Siege [1-7], the distance between the beginning of the Siege and N&C's wedding [1-3] and the distance between the Sack of KL to the end of the Siege [6-7].
 
That makes sense if the minimum of the duration of the Siege [1-7] is 10 months. But if we increase the minimum of the duration of the Siege to 11 months, we can also increase the maximum of the distance between the Sack of KL to the end of the Siege to 1.25 months.

The distance between KL and SE is similar to the distance between KL and the Trident. Haste was in order (people were about to starve at SE), and the lords Redwyn and Tyrell had not yet given up their siege. Possibly, news of the Sack hadn't reached them yet. So about two weeks, nor more.

To ToJ, Ned traveled with a much smaller group, and would have been able to travel much faster.

 
Yes, I am interested. Here, we can make the most accurate Robert's Rebellion Timeline

Will post once I have the time :)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 
English is not my mother language too.
 
But even that way:

• Littlefinger's name day would have to be late in the year 298 to be scarcely 30 years old when Catelyn thinks he is shy of 30.
• He would still be shy of 14 (or turn 14) in the second half of 282.
• Let's assume that for Catelyn (misremembering), shy of 14 means that he is "scarcely 15". That is a big mistake in her part.
• That would put the minimum date of the duel at lthe second half of 282
• Lyanna's abduction would be in late 282 or early 283
• Early 283 is imposible because Robb's minimum name day will be in 15/12/283 (considering only the minimum duration of RR's events in my timeline). Jon's name day would fall in 284. If Robb's name day was a few days past when Catelyn released Jaime in ACOK, it would be only 15 days apart of Joffrey's wedding.
• If we estimate Robb's minimum birthday through the date of AGOT Bran II, it would take place in 10/06/283 and his minimum conception will be at 10/09/282. (Assuming AGOT Bran II, when he fell off the tower, was in 08/05/298 (DD/MM/YYY)).
• When Robb and Bran fought the wildlings in AGOT Bran V and get Osha to Winterfell, they were already 15 and 8 years old. This event would be in the second half of 298, but with space enough to allow the other AGOT events to take place. The sighting of the red comet would be our reference to early 299 AC.
• That means that Robb's maximum birthday was in the second half of 283, but with "space enough to allow the events of AGOT ahead of Bran V to take place". For this, would be 01/10/283 a good maximum?
• If 01/10/283 is the maximum, that would meant that the minimum date of Robb's conception would be at 01/01/283.
• That would put the Battle of the Bells in 282.
• Therefore, from the supposed duel in the second half of 282 and the Battle of the Bells would have been a very narrow period of time iwhere the early events of RR would have to take place.
• Rhaegar had taken to the road at the beginning of 282. Lyanna's abduction would be late in 282.

 
To reconcile this, I think it is better to assume that Catelyn was not being very precise, and she though that "nearly 32 years old" was "shy of 30". Maybe she didn't remembered very well Littlefingers name day.
 
That would put the duel in late 281 AC, after the tourney of Harrenhal, and before Rhaegar had taken to the road at the beginning of 282 AC.

'shy of thirty' cannot mean he was thirty two. It means he isn't thirty yet (though technically, could have turned thirty a week after the statement was made, for example).

I see no problems with the duel having been in the second half of 282 AC. But, will explain when I post my own timeline. ;)

[FlyingCanary]

 
Rhaegar was clearly into the promised prince prophecy. He needed three children, or so the theory assumes. After all, the dragon has three heads. Rhaenys was the first, and Aegon the second. Yet the news that Elia could not birth another child, would seemingly prevent Rhaegar from getting that third head.

The Ghost of High Heart is the dwarf woman brought to court by Jenny of Oldstones, and had been at Summerhall during the Tragedy. We know that Rhaegar visited the ruins of Summerhal, at times, and there has been speculation that he might t times have met up with her, there. Perhaps, they never met until 282 AC though, as Summerhall was not what the Ghost liked to think off, so she probably wouldn't have liked to be there much. Still, she was the one who had predicted that the promised prince would come forth from the line of Aerys and Rhaella. We've seen how accurately she can predict thing, and undouvtly she would have needed to proof her worth at court before Aegon V and Jaehaerhs II would have trusted her. Rhaegar would have known about her thrustworthyness. So who could best help hum figure out what to do bow that Elia couldn't birth the third head? The Ghost. Which is why he ventures out into the riverlands. That's where she lives.

Or so the theory goes :)

 

I had read something similar but didn't stop to think that Rhaegar would visit her before he abducted Lyanna. I like that and it could be possible.

 

The mystery is now to estimate the maximum duration of that trip that would lead him to Lyanna's abduction.

 

Is 3.5 months a good maximum? That way, if he had taken road at 15/01/282, Lyanna's abduction maximum date would be at 01/05/282 AC.

 

Agreed on Tywin having prepared an army, ready to strike whoever's side lost on the Trident.

If I'm right, that between the Trident and the Sack, about two weeks pass. Same for Rhaegar marching to the Trident. So, about a month, in total. News of Rhaegar would have reached KL quickly, and Aerys easily could have send Rhaella away the next day. Some two weeks, thus, after Dany's conception (if indeed Chelsted was the night of her conception). Dany says she was born nine months after the flight.. nine months exactly? Quite unlikely. Perhaps eight month and three weeks, for example. Perhaps Rhaella had been late in giving birth. It changes nothing.

If Rhaegar had still been in KL when Aerys named a new Hand, why wasn't Rhaegar named to the office?

 

i'm assuming Rhaegar leave KL with Jon Darry the day after Aerys burned Lord Chelsted, to shorten the distance between that day and the Sack of KL, because we know for sure that Rossart was Hand during a fortnight.

 

That said, if your assumption is true and the distance from Dany's conception and the Sack of KL is a month, then Aerys would have been without a Hand during 2 weeks. It is not unlikely, but that seems off to me, because Aerys (i think) had a clear idea of who his next hand will be.

 

Rhaegar would not be a Hand because he was the heir to the Iron throne and Aerys didn't trust him. He thought Rhaegar conspired against him.

 

 You cannot have turend eight in 298 AC and still be eight in 300 AC. That's clearly impossible. Especially since Big Walder was the older one of the two.

They are eight and nine in 300 AC. Thus they were eight turning nine in 300, meaning they were born in 291 AC. Both of them. While Little Walder, being seven when Cat is at the Twins, doesn't give us a clue to the timing, Big Walder is already eight, and born in 291 AC, cannot have been eight in 298 AC, only in 299 and 300.

Ned was still alive at the Whispering Wood, and died mere days before the comet was sighted in the North. (FTFY)
 

 

I think you have misread what I wrote:

 

1) In late 298, when Catelyn and Robb visited the twins. Big Walder had turned 8. He then would turn 9 in late 299, and will turn 10 at late 300 AC. Little Walder is still 7 in 298, will turn 8 in 299 AC, and will turn 9 at 300 AC. But he will be 8 at the first half of 300 AC, where it is stated that he is 8 years old

 

2) In early 299, Catelyn and Robb visited the twins, they road to Riverrun and happens the Battle of the Wispering Wood. Ned is beheaded and the red comet is first sight. At 300 AC, Big Walder is 9 and Little Walder is 8.

 

Imho, the first one fits better.

 

The distance between KL and SE is similar to the distance between KL and the Trident. Haste was in order (people were about to starve at SE), and the lords Redwyn and Tyrell had not yet given up their siege. Possibly, news of the Sack hadn't reached them yet. So about two weeks, nor more.

To ToJ, Ned traveled with a much smaller group, and would have been able to travel much faster.

 

I agree with that. So, the interval from KL to SE [6-7] would be maximum 2 weeks and the interval from Ned to ToJ would be less [7-8].

 

One thing to note with that assumptions is that, if the time between Dany's conception to the Sack of KL is a month maximum (for me, a fortnigh minimum), then Jon Snow's maximum date conception name day coincides with the Sack of KL, and then, the maximum time of Lyanna's postpartum complications will be 2 weeks + the time Ned arrives from SE to ToJ (less than 2 weeks, or theorically 1 month if the complications lasted maximum 1.5 months). Ned didn't knew where the ToJ was, so it could have take a while.

 

'shy of thirty' cannot mean he was thirty two. It means he isn't thirty yet (though technically, could have turned thirty a week after the statement was made, for example).

I see no problems with the duel having been in the second half of 282 AC. But, will explain when I post my own timeline. ;)

 

I know that "shy of thirty" strictly cannot meant that he was thirty two, but then, strictly, he was shy of 14 at the second half of 282 AC. He would then turns 14 at the second half of 282. Strictly, if he was "scarcely 15" when the duel happened, it would be like 6 months after his 14th name day. And would be in 283. Therefore, Lyanna's abduction would be in 283 and that is imposible.

 

Catelyn is the one wrong here. About the "shy of 30" or about the "scarcely 15". Fixing the first one for me fits better.

 

Will post once I have the time :)

Ook :)

 

Edit: Grammar and "date conception" to "name day"

[The Twinslayer]

As to Loras... What value does Catelyns estimation of 'couldn't have reached his second nameday yet when Robert killed Rhaegar'?

Catelyn won't know Loras' exact date of birth, and Ned already shows us that Loras can easily be mistaken for younger than he actually is..

"Lord Eddard! The shout came from the west side of the hall as a handsome stripling of a boy strode forth boldly. Out of his armor, Ser Loras Tyrell looked even younger than his sixteen years. He wore pale blue silk, his belt a linked chain of golden roses, the sigil of his House.

So I'm not sure we can accurately use Loras' nameday for anything.
Margaery, on the other hand...

Loras' named is completely irrelevant.  But Catelyn's thoughts about Loras' named tell us that Robb was born after the Trident.  This is because she knows the date of the Trident, and she knows the date of Robb's nameday.  She [i]thinks[i]that Loras could not have had his second named by the date of the Trident.  Doesn't matter if that is true or not, it just matters that she thinks it.  So she thinks that Loras did not have his second nameday by a date she knew, i.e., the date of the Trident.  

 

She also [i]thinks[/i] that Loras does not have more than two years on Robb.  She knows Robb's nameday, and thinks Loras may have been born two years (but not three years) before Robb.  Doesn't matter if Loras is really 2 months, 2 years, or 20 years older than Robb.  It just matters that Catelyn thinks that Loras could be two years (but not three years) older than Robb.  

 

When you add this all together, it shows that Robb was born after the Trident.  She knows the date of the Trident and she knows the date of Robb's birth.  She thinks Loras was less than 2 when the Trident happened but that he could have been 2 when Robb was born.  This is GRRM specifically telling us that Robb was born after the Trident.  

[FlyingCanary]

Loras' named is completely irrelevant.  But Catelyn's thoughts about Loras' named tell us that Robb was born after the Trident.  This is because she knows the date of the Trident, and she knows the date of Robb's nameday.  She thinks[i]that Loras could not have had his second named by the date of the Trident.  Doesn't matter if that is true or not, it just matters that she thinks it.  So she thinks that Loras did not have his second nameday by a date she knew, i.e., the date of the Trident.  

 

She also [i]thinks that Loras does not have more than two years on Robb.  She knows Robb's nameday, and thinks Loras may have been born two years (but not three years) before Robb.  Doesn't matter if Loras is really 2 months, 2 years, or 20 years older than Robb.  It just matters that Catelyn thinks that Loras could be two years (but not three years) older than Robb.  

 

When you add this all together, it shows that Robb was born after the Trident.  She knows the date of the Trident and she knows the date of Robb's birth.  She thinks Loras was less than 2 when the Trident happened but that he could have been 2 when Robb was born.  This is GRRM specifically telling us that Robb was born after the Trident.  

 

With all respects, it is the contrary. Let me explain:

 

From Eddard's quote:

 

"Lord Eddard! The shout came from the west side of the hall as a handsome stripling of a boy strode forth boldly. Out of his armor, Ser Loras Tyrell looked even younger than his sixteen years. He wore pale blue silk, his belt a linked chain of golden roses, the sigil of his House.

 

So, in the second half of 298, Ned tell us in his thoughts that Loras was 16 years old. There are two possibilities:

 

1) Loras 16th name day happened in that year: Loras was born in 282, at the the first half of the year. Then, at the Battle of the Trident, in the second half of 283, Loras would have only around 1 year and a half . Therefore, Robb can be born before the Trident or in any moment in the year 283.

 

2) Loras 17th name day has not happened yet, but will happen later in 298. Then, Loras was born in the second half of 281. At the second half of the year 283, Loras would have turned 2 years. Since Catelyn thinks that Loras could not have reached his second name day when the Battle of the Trident happened, that tells us that Loras' name day is placed after the Battle of the Trident, in the second half of the year. If Robb was born before the Battle of the Trident, Loras could not have more than 2 years than Robb.

 

So, the first possibility tellls us that Robb's name day could be in any moment of the year 283, Loras name day is not relevant. Here, we can estimate the location in the year of Robb's name day through assumptions and intervals, like the ones I did in the name days' relationship essay, that depends on the date when Bran fell off the tower (AGOT Bran II).

 

The second possibility is telling us that Robb's name day is placed before the Battle of the Trident, or at least, before Loras' name day at the second half of the year which is placed after the Battle of the Trident.

[The Twinslayer]

 

With all respects, it is the contrary. Let me explain:

 

From Eddard's quote:

 

"Lord Eddard! The shout came from the west side of the hall as a handsome stripling of a boy strode forth boldly. Out of his armor, Ser Loras Tyrell looked even younger than his sixteen years. He wore pale blue silk, his belt a linked chain of golden roses, the sigil of his House.

 

So, in the second half of 298, Ned tell us in his thoughts that Loras was 16 years old. There are two possibilities:

 

1) Loras 16th name day happened in that year: Loras was born in 282, at the the first half of the year. Then, at the Battle of the Trident, in the second half of 283, Loras would have only around 1 year and a half . Therefore, Robb can be born before the Trident or in any moment in the year 283.

 

2) Loras 17th name day has not happened yet, but will happen later in 298. Then, Loras was born in the second half of 281. At the second half of the year 283, Loras would have turned 2 years. Since Catelyn thinks that Loras could not have reached his second name day when the Battle of the Trident happened, that tells us that Loras' name day is placed after the Battle of the Trident, in the second half of the year. If Robb was born before the Battle of the Trident, Loras could not have more than 2 years than Robb.

 

So, the first possibility tellls us that Robb's name day could be in any moment of the year 283, Loras name day is not relevant. Here, we can estimate the location in the year of Robb's name day through assumptions and intervals, like the ones I did in the name days' relationship essay, that depends on the date when Bran fell off the tower (AGOT Bran II).

 

The second possibility is telling us that Robb's name day is placed before the Battle of the Trident, or at least, before Loras' name day at the second half of the year which is placed after the Battle of the Trident.

I think the area where we differ is that you are trying to use Ned's POV to figure out, objectively, what Loras' nameday is.  I am saying that Loras' nameday is irrelevant because what matters is Catelyn's subjective, possibly incorrect, belief about Loras' nameday.  

 

Catelyn's subjective, possibly inaccurate belief about Loras' nameday tells us important information Robb's actual nameday, which Catelyn knows.  

 

Catelyn thinks, rightly or wrongly, that Loras was less than two when Rhaegar died at the Trident, but that Loras may be between 2 and 3 years older than Robb.  She might be completely wrong about that.  BUT, she knows when Robb was born and she knows when Rhaegar died.  This means she simultaneously BELIEVES that Loras may be between 2 and 3 years older than Robb, and at the same time she BELIEVES that Loras was less than 2 when Rhaegar died -- and that she KNOWS FOR A FACT that Rhaegar died on the Trident before Robb was born.  

 

What Eddard thinks or knows about Loras' nameday is completely irrelevant to this analysis of Catelyn's inner thoughts.  

[FlyingCanary]

I think the area where we differ is that you are trying to use Ned's POV to figure out, objectively, what Loras' nameday is.  I am saying that Loras' nameday is irrelevant because what matters is Catelyn's subjective, possibly incorrect, belief about Loras' nameday.  

 

Catelyn's subjective, possibly inaccurate belief about Loras' nameday tells us important information Robb's actual nameday, which Catelyn knows.  

 

Catelyn thinks, rightly or wrongly, that Loras was less than two when Rhaegar died at the Trident, but that Loras may be between 2 and 3 years older than Robb.  She might be completely wrong about that.  BUT, she knows when Robb was born and she knows when Rhaegar died.  This means she simultaneously BELIEVES that Loras may be between 2 and 3 years older than Robb, and at the same time she BELIEVES that Loras was less than 2 when Rhaegar died -- and that she KNOWS FOR A FACT that Rhaegar died on the Trident before Robb was born.  

 

What Eddard thinks or knows about Loras' nameday is completely irrelevant to this analysis of Catelyn's inner thoughts.  

 

The "between 2 and 3 years older than Robb" is where I think you are being mistaken.

 

Do you realize that if Loras was between 2 and 3 when Robb was born, he would then be MORE than 2 years when the Battle of the Trident happened?

 

2 years and 1 second is more than 2 years. 2 years and 5 months is more than 2 years. Loras could not have more than 2 years than Robb. Only 1 year and 12 months. Not more.

 

The quote says that Loras could not be more that 2 years than Robb and that Loras had not reached his second name day at the day of the Trident. My assumptions above fits perfectly. Also, if Ned was right about Loras name day, Catelyn was also right about what she though of Loras name day.

 

If Ned thinks about the name day of Loras is not because it is an irrelevant fact of the books, is because GRRM are giving us information.
In his thoughts Ned is pretty sure about the age of Loras. Loras appears younger but he knows that Loras is 16. If he didn't knew his age, he couldn't have predicted it because Loras looked younger.

 

And I don't know why you assume that Catelyn KNOWS FOR A FACT that Robb was born after the Trident based on what she thinks about Loras' name day.

 

If she thinks that Loras is 1 year and a half when the Trident happened, or that Loras' name day happened after the Trident, and if Rpbb was born before the Trident, it would make perfect sense that she thinks that Loras could not have more than 2 years than Robb because Loras has not yet reached his second name day when the Battle of the Trident happened.

 

Her thoughts would be perfectly correct.