Robert's Rebellion: Comprehensive Timeline

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

@FlyingCanary,

Regarding Loras and your two possibilities above... We know in which year Loras was born, as he is seventeen in both 299 AC and 300 AC; it is clear he was born in 282 AC, had been sixteen turning seventeen in 299 AC, is seventeen to be turning 18 in 300 AC, and had been fifteen turning sixteen in 298 AC.

So your second option falls away.

As to the Walders, from earlier, Theon names both of them eight years old in Reek I, as does the appendix, which begins its count in 300 AC as well due to the storyline starting in that year. Reek I takes place in 300 AC for certain, as Reek is aware that Ramsay is now a Bolton, no longer a Snow, and the legitimatization only occurs in a Jaime chapter after Joff's wedding, thus in 300 AC.

With both of them being eight, and with both of them turning nine before the book ends, they were both born in 291 AC, and thus, Cat visited the Twins in early 299 AC.

[FlyingCanary]

@FlyingCanary,

Regarding Loras and your two possibilities above... We know in which year Loras was born, as he is seventeen in both 299 AC and 300 AC; it is clear he was born in 282 AC, had been sixteen turning seventeen in 299 AC, is seventeen to be turning 18 in 300 AC, and had been fifteen turning sixteen in 298 AC.

So your second option falls away.

 

Agree. I made the two possibilities with only the informationi of Eddard's thoughts. With that, as you say, the second possibility is ruled out.

 

As to the Walders, from earlier, Theon names both of them eight years old in Reek I, as does the appendix, which begins its count in 300 AC as well due to the storyline starting in that year. Reek I takes place in 300 AC for certain, as Reek is aware that Ramsay is now a Bolton, no longer a Snow, and the legitimatization only occurs in a Jaime chapter after Joff's wedding, thus in 300 AC.

With both of them being eight, and with both of them turning nine before the book ends, they were both born in 291 AC, and thus, Cat visited the Twins in early 299 AC.

 

Also agree with the ages of the Walders, I wasn't aware of that passages. Both of them being 8 in the first half of 300 AC makes the visit of Robb and Catelyn in early 299 AC. Taking into account that there are no inconsistencies, like happened with Littlefingers age.

 

So, How much time do you think passed in the year 299 AC (minimum and maximum) untill the red comet was first seen? As you say, there has to be the visit from Catelyn and Robb, the march to Riverrun, The Battle of the Wispering Wood, The execution of Ned and the sight of the Red Comet.

[FlyingCanary]

@Rhaenys_Targaryen

 

I have seen in The World of Ice and Fire the passage where it is mentioned that Brandon was born in 262 AC (In the Aerys II passage), therefore placing the duel in 282 AC. But I keep thinking that the time between "Rhaegar had taken to the road" and "Lyanna's abduction" shouldn't be extended very much, even if Rhaegar went to visit to the Ghost of High Heart.

 

Since Catelyn is clearly wrong in the "scarcely 15" or "shy of 30", for me, it makes more sense if she was estimating or rounding the second statement, since when people get older it is easy to give or take a year or two, whereas in younger people, little differences in ages are more noticeable and would be less easy to give or take a year or two.

 

So, I would put the maximum distance between that events in 3.5 months, or even 4.5 months and overall increasing the maximum dates of my timeline in 2 months. But even that way, the duel would be in the first half of the year 282, maximum at  01/06/282 (assuming Rhaegar had taken to the road in 15/01/282. That would put the maximum date of the End of the Siege of Storm's End in 01/12/283.

 

The maximum dates of the Timeline would be:

• -3. Rhaegar had taken to the road: 15/01/282

(here, I think is possible to add a month, but to compensate I would take that month to the trip that would led him to Lyanna's abduction, so the date of Lyanna's abduction would be the same)

 

+ 4.5 months

• -2. Lyanna's abduction: 01/06/282

+ 1 month

• -1. Brandon and Rickard Stark's deaths in KL: 01/07/282

+(A few days)

• 0. Start of the Rebellion: A few days after that (very precise :P)

+ 5 months -(A few days): (Just to keep the maximums at 01/MM/YYY)

• 1. Beginning of the Siege of Storm's End: 01/12/282 --> Duration of the Siege of Storm's End: 12 months

+ 1 month (in my timeline is 0.75 months or 3 weeks)

• 3. N&C's wedding: 01/01/283 --> The Battle of the Bells would be 7 or 14 days before it.

+ 0.5 months --> Maximum date of Robb's conception

• 4. Ned rode off to war a fornight after getting married: 15/01/283

• 7. End of the Siege of Storm's End: 01/12/283 (if the Siege lasted 12 months)

- (1-2 weeks)

• 6. Sack of KL: From 15/11/283 to 22/11/283

- (1-2 weeks)

• 5. Battle of the Trident: From 01/11/283 to 15/11/283

- (1-2 weeks)

• Dany's maximum conception date: From 15/10/283 to 08/11/283 --> Dany's maximum birthday: From 15/07/284 to 08/08/284 or even 15/08/284.

• Jon's maximum birthday: From 15/11/283 to 08/12/283

• [4-5]: Distance from Ned returning to the war to the Battle fo the Trident: From 9 months to 9 months and 3 weeks.

• 8. Maximum The Tower of Joy date: From 01/01/284 to 22/01/284

I think this maximums are consistent, right?

 

Edit: Grammar

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

@Rhaenys_Targaryen
 
I have seen in The World of Ice and Fire the passage where it is mentioned that Brandon was born in 262 AC (In the Aerys II passage), therefore placing the duel in 282 AC. But I keep thinking that the time between "Rhaegar had taken to the road" and "Lyanna's abduction" shouldn't be extended very much, even if Rhaegar went to visit to the Ghost of High Heart.
 
Since Catelyn is clearly wrong in the "scarcely 15" or "shy of 30", for me, it makes more sense if she was estimating or rounding the second statement, since when people get older it is easy to give or take a year or two, whereas in younger people, little differences in ages are more noticeable and would be less easy to give or take a year or two.
 
So, I would put the maximum distance between that events in 3.5 months, or even 4.5 months and overall increasing the maximum dates of my timeline in 2 months. But even that way, the duel would be in the first half of the year 282, maximum at  01/06/282 (assuming Rhaegar had taken to the road in 15/01/282. That would put the maximum date of the End of the Siege of Storm's End in 01/12/283.
 
The maximum dates of the Timeline would be:

• -3. Rhaegar had taken to the road: 15/01/282

(here, I think is possible to add a month, but to compensate I would take that month to the trip that would led him to Lyanna's abduction, so the date of Lyanna's abduction would be the same)
 
+ 4.5 months

• -2. Lyanna's abduction: 01/06/282

+ 1 month

• -1. Brandon and Rickard Stark's deaths in KL: 01/07/282

+(A few days)

• 0. Start of the Rebellion: A few days after that (very precise :P)

+ 5 months -(A few days): (Just to keep the maximums at 01/MM/YYY)

• 1. Beginning of the Siege of Storm's End: 01/12/282 --> Duration of the Siege of Storm's End: 12 months

+ 1 month (in my timeline is 0.75 months or 3 weeks)

• 3. N&C's wedding: 01/01/283 --> The Battle of the Bells would be 7 or 14 days before it.

+ 0.5 months --> Maximum date of Robb's conception

• 4. Ned rode off to war a fornight after getting married: 15/01/283

• 7. End of the Siege of Storm's End: 01/12/283 (if the Siege lasted 12 months)

- (1-2 weeks)

• 6. Sack of KL: From 15/11/283 to 22/11/283

- (1-2 weeks)

• 5. Battle of the Trident: From 01/11/283 to 15/11/283

- (1-2 weeks)

• Dany's maximum conception date: From 15/10/283 to 08/11/283 --> Dany's maximum birthday: From 15/07/284 to 08/08/284 or even 15/08/284.

• Jon's maximum birthday: From 15/11/283 to 08/12/283

• [4-5]: Distance from Ned returning to the war to the Battle fo the Trident: From 9 months to 9 months and 3 weeks.

• 8. Maximum The Tower of Joy date: From 01/01/284 to 22/01/284

I think this maximums are consistent, right?
 
Edit: Grammar

Sorry that it took a while!

Catelyn is definitely wrong at one of the two, though I'd say that the 'shy of thirty' is the correct one, here. I think that people tend to remember the past more vaguely than the present. Look at Arys, for example. She was nine when she killed the stableboy, but later on she'll believe she had been eight.

Brandon had been somewhere between Winterfell and Riverrun when he learned of Lyanna. I'd say that three weeks of travel for him are minimally required. Rickard was only summoned after Brandon had arrived in KL, and I think we can assume those summons came quickly. Rickard would also take some three weeks.. perhaps a few days more, traveling with more men. I expect the executions to have occured within days of his arrival. From there, the war began.

I personally have the Battle of the Bells in the first few days of 283 AC, the double wedding a day or five, six after. Robb was conceived on the wedding night, according to Catelyn, and Ned would leave a fortnight after the wedding (so, according to my timeline, in the last week of January).

Around the same time as Ned left for war again, Hightower was send to find Rhaegar, and Darry and Selmy left to tally what they could find of Conningtons men. How long it too Hightower to find Rhaegar, we cannot possibly say, it depends on too much we know nothing about. Darry and Selmy, I guess, would need two to three months, at least.

Fastforward a but, to Dany's birth. You currently have her born between "15/07/284 to 08/08/284 or even 15/08/284".
I'd say that that's too late into the year.
With the dragons born around, per my current estimation, 29/1/299, Rhaego's birth will have occurred days before. Dany slept 'long', yet no so long as to cause major loss of weight, as Bran did within a fortnight. So my guess would be that Rhaego was 'born' around 20/1/299. At his birth, she had not yet been nine months pregnant (her time was near). If she had been pregnant for eight months by then, she would have gotten pregnant around 20/5/298. Noticing it would have occured around 1,5 - 2 months, and that creates a problem, as it would place her 14th nameday in July.

Why can't it be in July? We know Robert died in 283 AC. When Dany arrives in Qarth, it has been half a year since she heard news from Westeros. That's Vaes Dothrak, so we know it has been roughly 6 months since they left. Exactly six months? No, of course not. It could have been, for example, 6,5 months, possibly even 7. But about half a year.

We also know that meeting Mirri, didn't take too long, nor Rhaego's birth and Drogo's death, they followed relatively fast. Yet when Dany arrives in Qarth, she has turned fifteen, and we learn that 'not half a year past' the Cinnamon Wind had been at Oldtown, and that Robert was dead, and Ned arrested. They called in Dorne and Lys, and the saw stuff was brig said. Which shows that either Ned hadn't been executed yet by the time they left Lys, or, more likely, that the news of his traitors death hadn't reached Lys yet. Ned died before the comet appeared.
In addition, we learn that the dragon's are not yet half a year old, a chapter later, when Dany has been in Qarth for a little while.

So to me, it seems that Dany was closer to the nine months pregnant when Rhaego was born, 8,5, placing the conception around 5/5/298 and her birthday, some 1,5 months later, around 20/6/298. (support for the 8,5 months of pregnancy, or something close enough to that, could come from the fact that not once does Dany consider the birth to have been too early, when it begins).

While a case could be made for the first week of July or something, august definitly is too late.

If I look at the date of 20/6/298 for Dany's fourteenth birthday, the Sack will have occurred some 9 months before. I would then estimate the flight to have occured around 10/9/283, the Sack at 22/9, the Trident at 7/9, and Chelsteds death at 23/8 (that is, with the interpretation that Rossart was indeed named only after the Trident, giving us a fortnight between Trident and Sack, and about a fortnight between Chelsteds death and the Trident, perhaps a bit longer).

The Siege of SE also lasted close to a year, and will have ended some two to three weeks after the Sack. (around 10/10/283, roughly). It then stands to reason that it began towards the end of 282 AC. 1/12 is certainly possible, perhaps slightly later, even, to give Robert more time for all his marching in the Stormlands. Not too much later, though, as he needs to get to the Stoney Sept in time for the Bells, wounded. We know the Siege definitly began after Ashford, but I can't recall anything being stated about whether the Siege of the Bells came first.

The ToJ I've always still placed in 283 AC, for the simple reason that I am not sure that it would take Ned that long to get there, judging by the distance, though, of course, it also depends on where you place the lifting of the siege.

Jon's birth, with Dany's at 20/6/284, I'd estimate to have occurred between 20/9/283 and 20/10/283. Eight to nine months before.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

@Rhaenys_Targaryen: I included above information in another column ( B B) ) in the spreadsheet version, have a look how this aligns with all the formulas that were already present.

 

@FlyingCanary: I tried to do the same with your timeline ( column C ) but the constants that fit very well with @Rhaenys' and my timeline are a bit off for your's, so I gotta rethink that. ... eta: maybe you can have a look at where I have gone wrong and help me fix that.

[FlyingCanary]

First, sorry for the long, long post, but I reached 6 pages in the Google Drive document where I recollected the facts and assumptions:

 

Sorry that it took a while!

Catelyn is definitely wrong at one of the two, though I'd say that the 'shy of thirty' is the correct one, here. I think that people tend to remember the past more vaguely than the present. Look at Arys, for example. She was nine when she killed the stableboy, but later on she'll believe she had been eight.

Brandon had been somewhere between Winterfell and Riverrun when he learned of Lyanna. I'd say that three weeks of travel for him are minimally required. Rickard was only summoned after Brandon had arrived in KL, and I think we can assume those summons came quickly. Rickard would also take some three weeks.. perhaps a few days more, traveling with more men. I expect the executions to have occured within days of his arrival. From there, the war began.

I personally have the Battle of the Bells in the first few days of 283 AC, the double wedding a day or five, six after. Robb was conceived on the wedding night, according to Catelyn, and Ned would leave a fortnight after the wedding (so, according to my timeline, in the last week of January).

 

I THINK that have finally finished estimating the intervals of Robert's Rebellion events, now with the help of your assumptions about Rhaego's birth and Dany's name day. It is absolutely bomb proof. Except maybe, variations of a few days.

 

The duel of Brandon and Petyr Baelish is still at the first half of 282 AC. I just don't see how it can fit in the second half :/

 

About Robb's conception, we don't know if Robb was conceived in the wedding night or scarcely a fortnight when Ned rode off to war.

The quote says:

 

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn X

Ned had lingered scarcely a fortnight with his new bride before he too had ridden off to war with promises on his lips  At least he had left her with more than words; he had given her a son. Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south.

 

About the Battle of the Bells, now with the assumption of Dany's name day based on Rhaego's birth, it is possible that it happened at early 283 AC, maximum at 30/01/283, but under the following assumptions:

• Rhaegar had taken to the road a fortnight into the year 282 AC (15/01/282) (not variable?)
• Between that day and the Battle of the Bells there is 12.5 months maximum (not variable)
• Between that day and Lyanna's abduction, there is 4.5 months (variable)
• Between Lyanna's abduction and Brandon and Rickard's death in KL, there is 1 month (variable)
• Between Brandon and Rickard's death in KL and the Start of the Rebellion, there is a week (variable)
• Between the Start of the Rebellion and the Beginning of the SSE, there is 6.5 months (variable)
• Between the Beginning of the SSE and the Battle of the Bells, there is a week (variable) --> (30/01/283)

• Dany's maximum 14th name day is at 20/07/298 (Actually, It can be a little more, depends on when can be noted the signs of pregnancy)
• Rhaella's pregnancy lasted 9 months
• Dany's maximum conception would be at 20/10/283
• Jon's maximum birthday would be at 20/11/283
• The distance between Robb and Jon's name days is minimum a fortnight
• Robb's maximum birthday would be at 06/11/283
• Robb's maximum conception would be at 06/02/283
• Robb was conceived at N&C's wedding
• The Battle of the Bells was 7 days before N&C's wedding --> 30/01/283

Only with all of that assumptions, the Battle of the Bells can happen at 30/01/283.

 

 

Fastforward a bit, to Dany's birth. You currently have her born between "15/07/284 to 08/08/284 or even 15/08/284".
I'd say that that's too late into the year.
With the dragons born around, per my current estimation, 29/1/299, Rhaego's birth will have occurred days before. Dany slept 'long', yet no so long as to cause major loss of weight, as Bran did within a fortnight. So my guess would be that Rhaego was 'born' around 20/1/299. At his birth, she had not yet been nine months pregnant (her time was near). If she had been pregnant for eight months by then, she would have gotten pregnant around 20/5/298. Noticing it would have occured around 1,5 - 2 months, and that creates a problem, as it would place her 14th nameday in July.

Why can't it be in July? We know Robert died in 283 AC --> 298 AC (ftfy). When Dany arrives in Qarth, it has been half a year since she heard news from Westeros. That's Vaes Dothrak, so we know it has been roughly 6 months since they left. Exactly six months? No, of course not. It could have been, for example, 6,5 months, possibly even 7. But about half a year.

We also know that meeting Mirri, didn't take too long, nor Rhaego's birth and Drogo's death, they followed relatively fast. Yet when Dany arrives in Qarth, she has turned fifteen, and we learn that 'not half a year past' the Cinnamon Wind had been at Oldtown, and that Robert was dead, and Ned arrested. They called in Dorne and Lys, and the saw stuff was brig said. Which shows that either Ned hadn't been executed yet by the time they left Lys, or, more likely, that the news of his traitors death hadn't reached Lys yet. Ned died before the comet appeared.
In addition, we learn that the dragon's are not yet half a year old, a chapter later, when Dany has been in Qarth for a little while.

So to me, it seems that Dany was closer to the nine months pregnant when Rhaego was born, 8,5, placing the conception around 5/5/298 and her birthday, some 1,5 months later, around 20/6/298. (support for the 8,5 months of pregnancy, or something close enough to that, could come from the fact that not once does Dany consider the birth to have been too early, when it begins).

While a case could be made for the first week of July or something, august definitly is too late.

If I look at the date of 20/6/298 for Dany's fourteenth birthday, the Sack will have occurred some 9 months before. I would then estimate the flight to have occured around 10/9/283, the Sack at 22/9, the Trident at 7/9, and Chelsteds death at 23/8 (that is, with the interpretation that Rossart was indeed named only after the Trident, giving us a fortnight between Trident and Sack, and about a fortnight between Chelsteds death and the Trident, perhaps a bit longer).

The Siege of SE also lasted close to a year, and will have ended some two to three weeks after the Sack. (around 10/10/283, roughly). It then stands to reason that it began towards the end of 282 AC. 1/12 is certainly possible, perhaps slightly later, even, to give Robert more time for all his marching in the Stormlands. Not too much later, though, as he needs to get to the Stoney Sept in time for the Bells, wounded. We know the Siege definitly began after Ashford, but I can't recall anything being stated about whether the Siege or the Bells came first.

The ToJ I've always still placed in 283 AC, for the simple reason that I am not sure that it would take Ned that long to get there, judging by the distance, though, of course, it also depends on where you place the lifting of the siege.

Jon's birth, with Dany's at 20/6/284, I'd estimate to have occurred between 20/9/283 and 20/10/283. Eight to nine months before.

 

To respond to this, it's better I'll show you the intervals and assumptions that I've made in the Google Drive. Just one thing about Dany's birthday that I want to point out:

 

to Dany's birth. You currently have her born between "15/07/284 to 08/08/284 or even 15/08/284".

That was the maximum estimation of her birth day. 15/07/284 was not the minimum. It was the first maximum, assuming the events that happened between Dany's conception and the End of the SSE were separated between each of them 2 weeks. My assumption is that they were separated only 1 week between them. And finally, the last maximum, it's the same as my assumption, but with Dany's birthday taking place 9 months exactly after the Battle of the Trident, and not after Dany's conception (therefore, Rhaella's pregnancy lasted 9 months and a week).

 

 

@Rhaenys_Targaryen: I included above information in another column ( B B) ) in the spreadsheet version, have a look how this aligns with all the formulas that were already present.

 

@FlyingCanary: I tried to do the same with your timeline ( column C ) but the constants that fit very well with @Rhaenys' and my timeline are a bit off for your's, so I gotta rethink that. ... eta: maybe you can have a look at where I have gone wrong and help me fix that.

That is because above, I posted the maximum estimations, but not the minimums.

 

I will try to make various post down below to show the content of the Google Drive.

[FlyingCanary]

AGOT and ACOK’s events

Estimation of Rhaego's conception: 20/04/298 - 20/05/298 (9 - 8 months to Rhaego's birth).

From Rhaenys_Targaryen estimations about Rhaego’s birth.

A Game of Thrones - Bran II - Bran fell off the Tower: 08/05/298

From ASOIAF Timeline - Vandal Proof

Estimation of the time between Bran and Robb’s name day: Roughly 1.5 months

This can be estimated with the time between the chapters ACOK Bran IV and Catelyn VII

Robb’s 15th name day: 25/06/298 - 15/10/298 --> 05/11/298

(Later, I changed the maximum estimation for 05/11/298)

This interval can be estimated with:

Minimum: After Bran’s assassination attempt in AGOT Catelyn III (Robb is only 14), and after Bran’s 8th name day (assuming it was early when he was in coma). The chapter Catelyn III was 19-21 days after Bran fell off the Tower in AGOT Bran II.

I am assuming Robb's name is minimum around 2 weeks after Bran's assassination attempt, that Bran's name day takes place early when he was in coma, and that the time between Bran and Robb's name day is roughly 1.5 months.

Maximum: With the maximum durations of RR’s events. Ned rode off to war a fortnight after his wedding with Catelyn at maximum 15/01/283. Robb was born 9 months after his conception.

The maximum date must fall before the chapter AGOT Bran V, where he and Robb fought the wildlings and brought Osha to Winterfell. Bran is 8 years old and Robb is 15.

Dany’s 14th name day:  20/05/298 - 20/07/298

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys III

They were on the far side of the Dothraki sea when Jhiqui brushed the soft swell of Dany's stomach with her fingers and said, "Khaleesi, you are with child."

"I know," Dany told her.

It was her fourteenth name day.

 

My wide estimations: minimum 24/03/298 to maximum 15/07/298 or 08/08/298 or even 15/08/298

The first maximum (15/07) is under the assumption that there were two weeks between the events:

7. The Siege of Storm’s End

6. The Sack of KL

5. The Battle of the Trident

D’c. Dany’s conception. Lord Chelsted burned.

Also, there were 9 months exactly between Dany’s conception and her birthday.

The second maximum (08/08) is under the assumptions that there were a week between the events and there were 9 months exactly between Dany’s conception and her birthday. This also assumes that Rossart was named Hand of the King exactly when Aery’s burned Lord Chelsted and therefore, there was roughly 2 weeks between that day and the Sack of KL.

The third maximum (or even 15/08) is under the assumption that 9 months passed between Rhaella and Viserys fled to Dragonstone and Daenerys’ birth, and that the time between the previous events was a week.

A more narrow estimation thanks to the assumptions of @Rhaenys_Targaryen: 20/05/298 - 20/07/298

(1 month of pregnancy from 20/04/298 - 2 months of pregnancy from 20/05/298)

 

This interval depends on the date of Rhaego’s birth in AGOT (20/01/298), on the duration of Dany’s pregnancy when she had the miscarriage (8 - 9 months) and  the time where can be noted the signs of pregnancy.(1 - 2 months)

 

Jon’s 15th name day: 10/07/298 - 20/11/298

Minimum: Two weeks after Robb’s minimum name day. For this to be true, Robb would have been conceived in the final days of Ned’s stay in Riverrun after his wedding with Catelyn, and Ned will be believed that he had an adventure in the south only two weeks after he rode off to war.

Maximum: Estimated through @Rhaenys_Targaryen’s assumptions about Rhaego’s birth. Jon would be born 1 month after Dany was conceived, and therefore, there would be 8 months between Jon and Dany’s name days.

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys VI - At Vaes Dothrak

Under the hollow hummock of earth that was her home in Vaes Dothrak, Dany ordered them to leave her—all but Ser Jorah. "Tell me," she commanded as she lowered herself onto her cushions. "Was it the Usurper?"

"Yes." The knight drew out a folded parchment. "A letter to Viserys, from Magister Illyrio. Robert Baratheon offers lands and lordships for your death, or your brother's."

"My brother?" Her sob was half a laugh. "He does not know yet, does he? The Usurper owes Drogo a lordship." This time her laugh was half a sob. She hugged herself protectively. "And me, you said. Only me?"

"You and the child," Ser Jorah said, grim.

News from Westeros. Robert wants the death of Dany and her child.

Estimation of the chapter: ¿?. After AGOT Eddard VIII:

A Game of Thrones - Eddard VIII

"Robert, I beg of you," Ned pleaded, "hear what you are saying. You are talking of murdering a child."

"The whore is pregnant!" The king's fist slammed down on the council table loud as a thunderclap. "I warned you this would happen, Ned. Back in the barrowlands, I warned you, but you did not care to hear it. Well, you'll hear it now. I want them dead, mother and child both, and that fool Viserys as well. Is that plain enough for you? I want them dead."

Visit from Robb and Catelyn to the Twins: Early in 299 AC

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn IX

"If you can spare a few of your swords, I need some men to escort two of Lord Frey's grandsons north to Winterfell," she told him. "I have agreed to take them as wards. They are young boys, aged eight years and seven. It would seem they are both named Walder. Your brother Bran will welcome the companionship of lads near his own age, I should think."

A Dance with Dragons - Reek I

He remembered the boys as well. They were clad in matching lambswool doublets, silver-grey with dark blue trim. Both were squires, both were eight, and both were Walder Frey. Big Walder and Little Walder, yes. Only the big one was Little and the little one was Big, which amused the boys and confused the rest of the world. "I know you," he whispered, through cracked lips. "I know your names."

[…]

If I had a tail, the Bastard would have cut it off. The thought came unbidden, a vile thought, dangerous. His lordship was not a bastard anymore. Bolton, not Snow. The boy king on the Iron Throne had made Lord Ramsay legitimate, giving him the right to use his lord father's name.

This passages tell us that Robb and Catelyn’s visit to the Twins was in early 299 AC, since Big Walder is 8 years old in both AGOT and ADWD. Ramsay was legitimized after the Red Wedding.

Battle of the Whispering Wood: ¿?

Execution of Eddard Stark: ¿?

Estimation of Rhaego’s birth: 20/01/299

Modifying this date will change the maximum estimations of the events that depends on it. Like, Daenerys, Jon and Robb's name days, the events of Robert’s Rebellion after Dany’s conception and the events of RR after the beginning of the Siege of Storm's End to Ned's returning to the war after his wedding.

Estimation of the first sight of the Red comet: 29/01/299

Dany’s 15th name day - A Clash of Kings - Daenerys II

"Your Grace," the knight said, "I bring you Quhuru Mo, captain of the Cinnamon Wind out of Tall Trees Town."

The black man knelt. "I am greatly honored, my queen," he said; not in the tongue of the Summer Isles, which Dany did not know, but in the liquid Valyrian of the Nine Free Cities.

"The honor is mine, Quhuru Mo," said Dany in the same language. "Have you come from the Summer Isles?"

"This is so, Your Grace, but before, not half a year past, we called at Oldtown. From there I bring you a wondrous gift."

"A gift?"

"A gift of news. Dragonmother, Stormborn, I tell you true, Robert Baratheon is dead."

Outside her walls, dusk was settling over Qarth, but a sun had risen in Dany's heart. "Dead?" she repeated. In her lap, black Drogon hissed, and pale smoke rose before her face like a veil. "You are certain? The Usurper is dead?"

"So it is said in Oldtown, and Dorne, and Lys, and all the other ports where we have called."

He sent me poisoned wine, yet I live and he is gone. "What was the manner of his death?" On her shoulder, pale Viserion flapped wings the color of cream, stirring the air.

"Torn by a monstrous boar whilst hunting in his kingswood, or so I heard in Oldtown. Others say his queen betrayed him, or his brother, or Lord Stark who was his Hand. Yet all the tales agree in this: King Robert is dead and in his grave."

Dany had never looked upon the Usurper's face, yet seldom a day had passed when she had not thought of him. His great shadow had lain across her since the hour of her birth, when she came forth amidst blood and storm into a world where she no longer had a place. And now this ebony stranger had lifted that shadow.

"The boy sits the Iron Throne now," Ser Jorah said.

"King Joffrey reigns," Quhuru Mo agreed, "but the Lannisters rule. Robert's brothers have fled King's Landing. The talk is, they mean to claim the crown. And the Hand has fallen, Lord Stark who was King Robert's friend. He has been seized for treason."

The captain of the Cinnamon Wind heard the news that Robert died but not the ones that says that Ned Stark was beheaded. Not half year past, he encounters with Daenerys. Her 15th name day has already happened.

[Later in that chapter]

"The high lords have always fought. Tell me who's won and I'll tell you what it means. Khaleesi, the Seven Kingdoms are not going to fall into your hands like so many ripe peaches. You will need a fleet, gold, armies, alliances—"

"All this I know." She took his hands in hers and looked up into his dark suspicious eyes. Sometimes he thinks of me as a child he must protect, and sometimes as a woman he would like to bed, but does he ever truly see me as his queen? "I am not the frightened girl you met in Pentos. I have counted only fifteen name days, true ... but I am as old as the crones in the dosh khaleen and as young as my dragons, Jorah. I have borne a child, burned a khal, and crossed the red waste and the Dothraki sea. Mine is the blood of the dragon."

Estimation of the chapter: After 20/06/299, but before 20/08/299

 

Not half a year past, at Oldtown, he hears the news of Robert’s death. He went to Dorne and Lys, but the news of Ned’s execution hadn’t arrived yet, so the captain can only tell that Ned had been seized for treason.

That is consistent if the captain of the Cinnamon Wind hears the news of Robert’s death in the second half of January of 299 AC or even a little later than that, enough for him to not heard the news of Ned’s execution when he arrives Lys.

If the execution of Ned was at  (let's say) 20/01/299, and if the date when Dany meets the captain of the Cinnamon Wind was a little later than 20/07/299, after Dany's name day, then it would not have passed half a year since the captain hears the news of Robert’s death at Oldtown.

[FlyingCanary]

Robert's Rebellion's Events:

-3. Rhaegar had taken to the road: 15/01/282

+ 1 - 4.5 months

-2. Lyanna's abduction: 15/02/282 - 01/06/282

+ 0.5 - 1 month

-1. Brandon and Rickard Stark's deaths in KL: 01/03/282 - 01/07/282

+ (A few days)

0. Start of the Rebellion: A few days after that

1. Beginning of the Siege of Storm's End: 10/09/282 - 01/12/282

This minimum is estimated through the minimum of N&C’s wedding. The maximum is estimated assuming that the time between (0) and (1) was around 5 months.

[1-7]. Duration of the Siege of Storm's End: 10 - 12 months

2. The Battle of the Bells: 18/09/282 - 25/12/282

From a few days to around two weeks before N&C’s wedding.

3. N&C/J&L’s double wedding: 25/09/282 - 01/01/283

The minimum date is estimated through Robb’s minimum name day. Assuming that it was around 2 weeks after Bran’s assassination attempt and that Robb was conceived the same day of the wedding. The maximum is estimated assuming that it happened around 6 months after the Start of the Rebellion.

Robb’s conception: 25/09/282 - 15/01/298

4. Ned rode off to war a fortnight after getting married: 10/10/282 - 15/01/283

Robb’s birthday: 25/06/283 - 15/10/298

7. End of the Siege of Storm's End: 10/07/283 - 01/12/283

The events before the End of the SSE can be separated 1 or 2 weeks between them.

 

I prefer assuming 1 week, because it would meant that Rossart was named Hand of the King inmediatly after Aerys burned Lord Chelsted. The time between Dany's conception and the Sack of KL would be a fortnight.

 

If we assume that they are separated 2 weeks between them, that would meant that Rossart was elected Hand of the King a fortnight after Aerys burned Lord Cheldsted, and therefore Aerys was 2 weeks without a Hand. And that the Sack was a fortnight after the Battle of the Trident.

 

- (1-2 weeks)

6. Sack of KL: 24/06/283 - 24/11/283

From this point, a few corrections has to be made in the minimums.

If Robb was born minimum at 25/06/283 and his distance from Jon’s birthday is minimum two weeks (10/07), and Jon’s birthday is maximum 1 month after Dany’s conception, then Dany’s conception minimum date is at (10/06).

- (1-2 weeks)

5. Battle of the Trident: 10/06/283 - 17/11/283 --> 17/06/283 - 17/11/283

- (1-2 weeks)

Dany's conception: 26/05/283 - 10/11/283 --> 10/06/283 - 10/11/283

Dany's birthday: 26/02/284 - 18/08/284 --> 10/03/284 - 18/08/284

Jon’s birthday: 26/05/283 - 18/12/283 --> 10/07/283 - 18/12/283

Jon’s conception: 26/08/283 - 18/03/283 --> 10/10/283 - 18/03/283

[4-5]: Time from Ned returning to the war to the Battle of the Trident: From 8 months and a week to 10 months

8. The Tower of Joy: 17/07/283 - 15/01/284

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, taking into account the narrow interval of Dany’s birthday thanks to Rhaenys_Targaryen’s estimations of Rhaego’s birthday and the first sight of the Red Comet:

Dany's birthday (narrow interval): 20/05/284 - 20/07/284

This interval depends on the date of Rhaego’s birth in AGOT (20/01/299), on the duration of Dany’s pregnancy when she had the miscarriage (8 to 9 months) and the time where it can be noted the signs of her pregnancy (1 - 2 months).

Dany's conception (narrow interval): 20/08/283 - 20/10/283

Jon’s birthday (narrow interval): 20/08/283 - 20/11/283

Robb’s birthday (narrow interval): 20/06/282 - 20/12/283 --> 20/06/283 - 05/11/283

 

8. Tower of Joy (narrow interval): 18/09/283 - 05/01/284

5. Battle of the Trident (narrow interval): 27/08/283 - 05/11/283

6. Sack of KL (narrow interval): 03/09/283 - 20/11/283

7. End of the SSE (narrow interval): 10/09/283 - 05/12/283

1. Beginning of the SSE (narrow interval): 10/09/282 - 05/02/283 --> 10/09/282 - 25/01/283

2. Battle of the Bells (narrow interval): 15/09/283 - 20/02/283 → 15/09/283 - 30/01/283

 

3. N&C/J&L’s double wedding (narrow interval): 20/09/282 - 05/03/283 --> 20/09/282 - 05/02/283

 

4. Ned rode off to war (narrow interval): 04/10/282 - 20/03/283 --> 04/10/282 - 20/02/283

Robb’s conception (narrow interval): 20/09/282 - 20/03/283 --> 20/09/282 - 05/02/283

Jon’s conception (narrow interval): 20/11/282 - 20/02/283

[4-5]. Time between Ned rode off to war and the Battle of the Trident: 8.25 - 13 months

0. Start of the Rebellion: A few days after Brandon and Rickard were killed

-1. Brandon and Rickard Stark's deaths in KL: 01/03/282 - 01/07/282

-2. Lyanna's abduction: 15/02/282 - 01/06/282

-3. Rhaegar had taken to the road: 15/01/282

[0-1]. Time between the Start of the Rebellion and the SSE: 2.25 - 10.75 months

[(-3)-1]. Time between Rhaegar had taken to the road and the SSE: 7.9 - 12.25 months

 

[(-3)-J’b]. Time between Rhaegar had taken to the road and Jon’s birth: 17 - 22 months

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Edit: Little corrections and grammar

Edit2: Little adjustments in the narrow timeline

Edit3: A little error in the Battle of the Bells (narrow interval) estimation.

Edit4: Actually, I didn't modify anything. Just want to point out that I'm in the middle of some corrections to fit everything better and to make everything more understandable. When I finish, I'll make a better Google Drive Doc and post it here. Maybe I substitute the previous one.

[LordDireStark]

I'm going to add some points that may or may not help.

1-The tourney was announced in late 280ac after Lord Whent was visited by Oswell.

2- I believe the tourney was in late May 281 ac

3-Brandon and Petyr's duel was in late dec 281 and that Petyr might have only been about 14

   because Cat said Brandon was a man grown and Petyr was only a boy.

4- Layanna was abducted around late Jan because the prince took to the road with a half dozen

    of his closest friends and confidants that led him on a journey that "eventually" led them to within

    10 leagues of harrenhal.

5- Brandon was traveling from riverrun to meet Rickard who was coming down from winterfell,

    when Brandon heard of the kidnapping.I believe Brandon was somewhere around the Inn

    of the crossroads which meant it would take about 12-14 days to get to KL.

    So now its the middle of Feb.

6- With this in mind where was Rickard when he was told to appear at court?

    And it was mentioned that Rickard lost 200 of his finest men at KL,so he wouldn't be traveling

   at a fast pace. So that might be another 3-4 weeks for him to arrive at KL.

   So now its the middle of March.

7- Now you factor in the murders of Rickard and Brandon and orders for Jon to hand over Ned and

    Robert and Jon to call his banners,you add another week for ravens to fly.

    The war probably started around late march/early april.

8- Then you have to add time for Robert to fight at Gulltown and then sail to Storms End to call his banners.

9- Then there's Ned traveling all the way to Winterfell and call his banners and then march South.

10-It was mentioned the war lastedthe rest of 282ac and went into most of 283ac which would    

    make sense because the greyjoy rebellion was in 289ac and it was 6 years after Robert

    was crowned,which would mean the war ended in late 283.

With this said, you did a really good job because we're dealing with fictional travel times,really slim details

and the like. And this stuff can drive you batty when you're dealing with mostly conjecture.

 

[FlyingCanary]

I'm going to add some points that may or may not help.

1-The tourney was announced in late 280ac after Lord Whent was visited by Oswell.

2- I believe the tourney was in late May 281 ac

3-Brandon and Petyr's duel was in late dec 281 and that Petyr might have only been about 14

   because Cat said Brandon was a man grown and Petyr was only a boy.

4- Layanna was abducted around late Jan because the prince took to the road with a half dozen

    of his closest friends and confidants that led him on a journey that "eventually" led them to within

    10 leagues of harrenhal.

5- Brandon was traveling from riverrun to meet Rickard who was coming down from winterfell,

    when Brandon heard of the kidnapping.I believe Brandon was somewhere around the Inn

    of the crossroads which meant it would take about 12-14 days to get to KL.

    So now its the middle of Feb.

6- With this in mind where was Rickard when he was told to appear at court?

    And it was mentioned that Rickard lost 200 of his finest men at KL,so he wouldn't be traveling

   at a fast pace. So that might be another 3-4 weeks for him to arrive at KL.

   So now its the middle of March.

7- Now you factor in the murders of Rickard and Brandon and orders for Jon to hand over Ned and

    Robert and Jon to call his banners,you add another week for ravens to fly.

    The war probably started around late march/early april.

8- Then you have to add time for Robert to fight at Gulltown and then sail to Storms End to call his banners.

9- Then there's Ned traveling all the way to Winterfell and call his banners and then march South.

10-It was mentioned the war lastedthe rest of 282ac and went into most of 283ac which would    

    make sense because the greyjoy rebellion was in 289ac and it was 6 years after Robert

    was crowned,which would mean the war ended in late 283.

With this said, you did a really good job because we're dealing with fictional travel times,really slim details

and the like. And this stuff can drive you batty when you're dealing with mostly conjecture.

 

 

In the first post, I added a link to the Google Drive Doc where I have the timeline, the text evidences, the assumptions, calculations and intervals of the events concerning the Robert's Rebellion, but it is a bit outdated since I have made a few changes (the ones that I posted in the last posts in this thread).

 

I will try to update it soon. There is also a relation about Bran, Robb, Jon and Dany's name days.

 

2. The minimum date of the tourney is at April of 281 AC (I have to correct that in my timeline, because I first though that the minimum was in March). And it lasted 2 months 10 days, and took place in the False Spring that lasted 2 months. We can't be sure when the tourney actually happened.

 

3. Also, topics like the date of the duel of Brandon Stark and Petyr Baelish are been discussed in this thread. At first I believed it was in late 281 AC, but now I think I was at the first half of 282 AC. @Rhaenys_Targaryen points out that it was at the second half of 282 AC, along with Lyanna's abduction. Anyway, we can be sure that Catelyn was not being precise, rounding up or down, misremembering, or it is simply an inconsistency.

 

4. About Lyanna's abduction, we can only be sure that, a fortnight into the year 282 AC, Rhaegar was not in KL nor in Dragonstone. the actual date of Lyanna's abduction can be prolonged several months. The minimum would be around 2 weeks after Rhaegar had taken to the road, but I think that is too early, so I put my minimum 1 month after that (15/02/282).

 

5. About the time that took Brandon to get to KL after he heard the news of Lyanna's abduction... I never liked estimating dates through distances and travel speeds. For example, in this case, Brandon had little companions, and they seem to have horses. And Brandon would want to arrive at KL as soon as he can. So, a week, or even less, between he heard the news and his arrival to KL is reasonable.

 

Also, if my assumptions about the time between Dany's conception and the Sack of King's Landing are true, that would meant that the time for an army to reach King's Landing from the Trident would be a week (taking into account that they used the King's road).

 

My assumptions would be:

Aerys named Rossart, his favourite alchemist, Hand of the King inmediately after he burned Lord Chelsted (his previous Hand). Or maybe a few days after that. The night he burned Lord Chelsted, Aerys had sex with Rhaella (Dany's conception) and Jon Darry and Jaime Lannister were guarding the King. Jon Darry is known to have died at the Trident. And Rossart was Hand during a fortnight. If Rhaegar march to the Trident the day after Aerys burned Lord Chelsted, that would meant that between that date and the Sack of KL there is a fortnight.

 

6. Rickard was probably in his way to Riverrun, because he and Lyanna and probably Ned (but not Benjen because there is always a Stark in Winterfell?) were going to Brandon and Catelyn's wedding. He would take a week, or even 3 weeks to arrive to KL.

 

Can you please post where it is mentioned that Rickard lost 200 of his finest men? It seems that I can't find it

 

7. The time for raves to fly and arrive to the Eyrie is irrelevant, considering that the next interval last several months. It could be a few days to a week, but we could add or remove that time from the interval between the Start of the Rebellion to the Beginning of the SSE.

 

8 and 9. I didn't estimate that times separately. Instead, I estimated the date when Robert and Ned meets at the Battle of the Bells at Stoney Sept. And the Beginning of the SSE, that took place really close before it. That date will also help us to estimate the end of the war, when Ned lifted the Siege, because the Siege lasted close to a year.

 

The interval between the Start of the Rebellion to the Beginning to the Siege could be really wide, depending of what assumptions are made. From 2 months and a week to 10 months and 3 weeks.

 

Yes, we are dealing with mostly conjeture, but precise conjeture based on the text evidences from the books. My intervals are made from that fact, to the point that I think that I cover all possibilities. And there is only one inconsistency that is entirely Catelyn's fault: Littlefingers age at the duel with Brandon.

 

Edit: Incomplete sentence --> Lyanna and probably Ned were going to Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Still need to read most of the posts, but two quick observations:

Catelyn believes Robb was conceived on her wedding night (whether she is correct is a different matter, as Ned remained as Riverrun for a fortnight).

She remembered her own childish disappointment, the first time she had laid eyes on Eddard Stark. She had pictured him as a younger version of his brother Brandon, but that was wrong. Ned was shorter and plainer of face, and so somber. He spoke courteously enough, but beneath the words she sensed a coolness that was all at odds with Brandon, whose mirths had been as wild as his rages. Even when he took her maidenhood, their love had more of duty to it than of passion. We made Robb that night, though; we made a king together.

(there should be another quote of Catelyn telling Robb that it conceiving an heir 'doesn't always happen the first time, nor the hundredth time', but that it had happened on the first try for her and Ned)


Also, the False Spring lasted for two months, not the tourney at Harrenhal (that lasted ten days) :) but I suppose that is what was meant :)

[FlyingCanary]

Still need to read most of the posts, but two quick observations:

Catelyn believes Robb was conceived on her wedding night (whether she is correct is a different matter, as Ned remained as Riverrun for a fortnight).
 

She remembered her own childish disappointment, the first time she had laid eyes on Eddard Stark. She had pictured him as a younger version of his brother Brandon, but that was wrong. Ned was shorter and plainer of face, and so somber. He spoke courteously enough, but beneath the words she sensed a coolness that was all at odds with Brandon, whose mirths had been as wild as his rages. Even when he took her maidenhood, their love had more of duty to it than of passion. We made Robb that night, though; we made a king together.

(there should be another quote of Catelyn telling Robb that it conceiving an heir 'doesn't always happen the first time, nor the hundredth time', but that it had happened on the first try for her and Ned)


Also, the False Spring lasted for two months, not the tourney at Harrenhal (that lasted ten days) :) but I suppose that is what was meant :)

 

 

Oh, cool! I need to add that quote to the timeline.

 

Curiously enough, my intervals were set in a way that N&C's wedding interval was the same that Robb's conception interval.

 

Theorically, the minimum N&C's wedding date could be a fortnight before Robb's minimum conception. But with your estimations about Dany's name day based on Rhaego's birth (that I converted into a 2 months interval, with 20/06 in the center), then the Beginning of the Siege of Storm's Ends would be minimum at 10/09/282. And Robb's conception minimum date would be at 20/09/282 (based on the date of the chapter AGOT Bran II). And between that 10 days must happen the Battle of the Bells.

 

So, all fits surprisingly well. :)

 

About the tourney. Yes, I meant the tourney lasted 10 days, and in took place in the False Spring that lasted 2 months.

So many dates and intervals...

[spoon89]

Can you please post where it is mentioned that Rickard lost 200 of his finest men? It seems that I can't find it.

 

AGoT: Bran VI

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned. And Father had gone south, with Arya and Sansa, and Jory and Hullen and Fat Tom and the rest, and later Mother and Ser Rodrik had gone, and they hadn't come back either.

 

I've always been under the impression that Jon is slightly older than Robb, will post about it later.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

I've always been under the impression that Jon is slightly older than Robb, will post about it later.

 
There are at least two threads discussing that theory, I refer you to the more recent "[Analysis] Who is older: Robb or Jon?" to check how far we have got with that theory. :-)

[FlyingCanary]

 

AGoT: Bran VI

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned. And Father had gone south, with Arya and Sansa, and Jory and Hullen and Fat Tom and the rest, and later Mother and Ser Rodrik had gone, and they hadn't come back either.

 

I've always been under the impression that Jon is slightly older than Robb, will post about it later.

 

Thank you :)

About Jon being slightly older than Robb... well, I have calculated that it is possible under very specific assumptions.

In my timeline, I stated that theoretically, Jon could be 1 month older than Robb. But now that I have expanded some intervals and narrowed another ones, the theory says that Jon could be 1.5 months older than Robb, and also, Jon could be 3 months younger than Robb. In this case, this interval is extended a bit. Keep in mind that the extremes are usually unlikely.

So, Jon could be between (-1.5) to 3 months younger than Robb. But I also stated that the real minimum time between Robb and Jon's name days is 2 weeks, and not (-1.5) months. That is because:

Both Catelyn and Robert believe that Ned had an adventure in the south after he married Catelyn. And Robb was conceived the night of N&C's wedding. This can be supported by quotes of the books.

So, Jon would have to be younger than Robb to make both Catelyn and Robert think that Ned had an adventure. Also, Catelyn could compare both Robb and Jon when they were only a few months old, when she arrived at Winterfell after the Rebellion and Jon was already established with his wet nurse. And furthermore, Jon's name day will give a hint to Catelyn of when Ned "cheated" after he rode off to war after his wedding.

 

For that to make sense, Robb and Jon's name day have to be saparated enough to give this story believability. I have stated that the minimum time between their name days is 2 weeks, but it has to be clearly more. Like a month, because Ned would not going to "cheat" at only 2 weeks after he rode off to war, right? But that is the minimum that I chosed to included more possibilities. But it would be more likely if the distance between the name days is a month or more.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 
There are at least two threads discussing that theory, I refer you to the more recent "[Analysis] Who is older: Robb or Jon?" to check how far we have got with that theory. :-)

Hey, I know that one! :p

I have to add, though, that according to Ned and Robert, Catelyn, and Jon himself, Jon was born after Robb, so most likely also conceived after.

Personally, I'd say they differ only slightly.. a few weeks, at most... Which makes Catelyn's wonderings about Ashara Dayne all the more interesting..

[FlyingCanary]

Hey, I know that one! :P

I have to add, though, that according to Ned and Robert, Catelyn, and Jon himself, Jon was born after Robb, so most likely also conceived after.

Personally, I'd say they differ only slightly.. a few weeks, at most... Which makes Catelyn's wonderings about Ashara Dayne all the more interesting..

 

Hahaha! I was going to leave a comment about the AGOT Robert's quote that says that Ned fathered Jon after he married Cat. Didn't realized that you created the thread.

 

Anyway, now that I have revised the time between Robb and Jon's name days with the new intervals, and knowing that Robb was conceived exactly at N&C's wedding, and that Ned stayed scarcely a fortnight at Riverrun after his wedding, that means that the minimum time between their name days is 1 month or more, if Ned fathered a child 2 weeks after he rode off to war. And if Catelyn thinks that Jon is Ashara's son, then it would take more than 2 weeks for Ned to arrive at Starfall.

 

Just food for thought

[LordDireStark]

BRAN POV -page576-  Their grandfather,old Lord Rickard,had gone as well,with his son Brandonwho was fathers brother,and 200

                                      of his best men.None had ever returned.

[Lord Wraith]

Well done OP.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 
Hahaha! I was going to leave a comment about the AGOT Robert's quote that says that Ned fathered Jon after he married Cat. Didn't realized that you created the thread.
 
Anyway, now that I have revised the time between Robb and Jon's name days with the new intervals, and knowing that Robb was conceived exactly at N&C's wedding, and that Ned stayed scarcely a fortnight at Riverrun after his wedding, that means that the minimum time between their name days is 1 month or more, if Ned fathered a child 2 weeks after he rode off to war. And if Catelyn thinks that Jon is Ashara's son, then it would take more than 2 weeks for Ned to arrive at Starfall.
 
Just food for thought

Aaah... in response to the question (paraphrasing) 'Why does Catelyn consider Ashara a possible mother if she was at Starfall (and thus so far away)?', GRRM has specifically stated that 'Ashara was not nailed to the floor at Starfall'.