R+L=J v. 152

[purple-eyes]

You mean 'if Robert had a sister'? Then she probably would have been chosen, yes. Child of Aerys' trusted friend and cousin, with closest family relations. If only Stannis had been a girl...
Which all makes me wonder more and more where the Tarth relations to House Targaryen came in, what happened to Maegor and Vaella, and to whom Daella and Rhae were married. Atm I assume that either Rhae or Daella was married to a Tarth, which could then mean that there was no female to marry from that line.. but Aegon had two sisters, and both sisters had at least one child.. was there no female descendant?
I wonder, is there anyone left in the current story who could shed some more lift on Aerys' decision? Doran can tell us how Elia's marriage came to be (something I actually can see happening, if Arianne allies Dorne to Aegon). But what about all of Aerys' reasonings before? Varys.. JonCon perhaps, to some degree... Who else?

Maybe I oversimplify this, but it seems like Elia's dragon blood and of course proper age were the most important factors.
And maybe the friendship between elia's mom and the queen also helped.

Cersei and lyanna were much younger (like 10 years old) and did not have dragon blood (at least not as much as Elia).

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Maybe I oversimplify this, but it seems like Elia's dragon blood and of course proper age were the most important factors.
And maybe the friendship between elia's mom and the queen also helped.

Cersei and lyanna were much younger (like 10 years old) and did not have dragon blood (at least not as much as Elia).

Mama Martell had been Rhaella's lady-in-waiting, but it has yet to be confirmed if they had been friends. It seems likely, but still.

I think, besides the blood and her age and birth, the advantage of pissing off Tywin was also in Aerys' consideration.

Neither Cersei or Lyanna had any dragonsblood, and as that seems to have been quite important to Aerys, they most likely were never considered at all by him.

[winterfellbeyondthewall]

Mama Martell had been Rhaella's lady-in-waiting, but it has yet to be confirmed if they had been friends. It seems likely, but still.

I think, besides the blood and her age and birth, the advantage of pissing off Tywin was also in Aerys' consideration.

Neither Cersei or Lyanna had any dragonsblood, and as that seems to have been quite important to Aerys, they most likely were never considered at all by him.

I agree. I don't think he paid the fact that she had dragon blood in her too much attention but rather that she was perfect to secure the Dornish men's power to his claim

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I agree. I don't think he paid the fact that she had dragon blood in her too much attention but rather that she was perfect to secure the Dornish men's power to his claim

If he didn't care about blood, though, why the wish to have a daughter so Rhaegar can marry a sister? And why send to Volantis (and only Volantis) for a potential bride (most likely with at least some demands concerning the girl)?

I agree that, when all the other options failed, Aerys sought a match with Targaryen blood which would politically be most advantageous (for reasons you've mentioned).

In the end, we have to wonder.. did Aerys choose Elia, did Rhaegar suggest her, or did Mama Martell suggest her? The OK would have come from Aerys, to be sure, in the end.

[winterfellbeyondthewall]

If he didn't care about blood, though, why the wish to have a daughter so Rhaegar can marry a sister? And why send to Volantis (and only Volantis) for a potential bride (most likely with at least some demands concerning the girl)?

I agree that, when all the other options failed, Aerys sought a match with Targaryen blood which would politically be most advantageous (for reasons you've mentioned).

In the end, we have to wonder.. did Aerys choose Elia, did Rhaegar suggest her, or did Mama Martell suggest her? The OK would have come from Aerys, to be sure, in the end.

You're right, my bad. I oversaw the fact that he send messengers to Volantis. So yes apparently he wanted someone with dragon blood. I don't think Rhaegar chose Elia himself, because I feel like when he first saw Lyanna it wasn't love but rather the knowledge that she was the one to fulfil his prophecy. If he didn't have that feeling towards Elia I don't see him choosing her.
I don't know whether Aerys would have just accepted an offer. Maybe he felt like stooping low if he was to take an offer rather than suggesting it himself. I honestly think that this was all Aerys' doing.

[Consigliere]

I, sadly, do not recall who, but someone contributed a nice writeup int he previous several threads about the equivalence of Stark to stone. But, even if you don't accept that, isn't it serious foreshadowing that Daenerys is driven to her knees (by the stone beneath her foot), while the grass bows low to the Dragon?

 

Okay, I found some stuff concerning the Stark/stone connection. From what I gather there is a recurring theme that "stone" refers to Starks and "hidden". Rickon hiding on Skagos (meaning "stone" in the old tongue), Sansa hiding under the alias of Alayne Stone, Arya in Braavos (the stone city) as well as hiding Needle (the symbol of her identity as a Stark) under a stone. This connection is used to support Jon being the stone dragon (half Stark/half Targ + hidden identity).

 

As to the bolded: I found two interpretations of that quote which I consider to be equally compelling; one by Fire Eater [link] and one by MoIaF [link]. All in all, I don't think that Dany bowing to a great dragon (I assume you mean Jon) is as clear cut as you seem to think.

[Lord Varys]

Consigliere,

 

this theory doesn't hold much water if you ask me. You have to shoehorn a lot of stuff into place for it make sense even remotely. First there is the thing about 'the stone beast breathing shadow fire' as 'a stone dragon' which isn't remotely the only way to interpret that, but even more importantly it is the fact that this 'stone beast' is actually presented in connection to one of the lies the Slayer of Lies (Daenerys Targaryen) is supposed to slay. If that's Jon or connected to Jon than he, too, would be a false savior (which I find it unlikely). Jon Snow is already present in the visions of the Undying as the blue rose on the Wall, so there is no reason to assume that he shows up again in a different form.

 

[The other idea that 'the stone beast breathing shadow fire' is Dany herself as a false savior/lie/whatever is equally hilarious if you ask me - if prophecy-fulfillment were this convoluted in this series you would need an 'officially annotated version' of the books to make sense of it all - which is not the case.]

 

The other point is that this 'stone stuff' being related to the Starks and something hidden. I don't see that in any meaningful sense unless you take casual stuff (the places were people are right now, or where they have hid some things), project some plot-related meaning into all that, and then conclude what you want to conclude - that this is some foreshadowing stuff setting up Jon Snow as the big hero guy and Daenerys in a subservient role.

 

There may be something to the whole 'egg thing' in regards to hidden Targaryens, but they do not feature all that prominently with Jon Snow - nor is this kind of thing necessary as there are lots and lots of other rather obvious clues.

[Consigliere]

Consigliere,

 

this theory doesn't hold much water if you ask me. You have to shoehorn a lot of stuff into place for it make sense even remotely. First there is the thing about 'the stone beast breathing shadow fire' as 'a stone dragon' which isn't remotely the only way to interpret that, but even more importantly it is the fact that this 'stone beast' is actually presented in connection to one of the lies the Slayer of Lies (Daenerys Targaryen) is supposed to slay. If that's Jon or connected to Jon than he, too, would be a false savior (which I find it unlikely). Jon Snow is already present in the visions of the Undying as the blue rose on the Wall, so there is no reason to assume that he shows up again in a different form.

 

[The other idea that 'the stone beast breathing shadow fire' is Dany herself as a false savior/lie/whatever is equally hilarious if you ask me - if prophecy-fulfillment were this convoluted in this series you would need an 'officially annotated version' of the books to make sense of it all - which is not the case.]

 

The other point is that this 'stone stuff' being related to the Starks and something hidden. I don't see that in any meaningful sense unless you take casual stuff (the places were people are right now, or where they have hid some things), project some plot-related meaning into all that, and then conclude what you want to conclude - that this is some foreshadowing stuff setting up Jon Snow as the big hero guy and Daenerys in a subservient role.

 

There may be something to the whole 'egg thing' in regards to hidden Targaryens, but they do not feature all that prominently with Jon Snow - nor is this kind of thing necessary as there are lots and lots of other rather obvious clues.

 

I agree with much you are saying here. That was the point I was trying to make - that there are equally compelling alternate interpretations. So stating that Dany will bend the knee to Jon, like that should be obvious from that quote is something I don't agree with. Personally, I think that the Stark/stone connection has a bit more going for it. I was under the impression that the stone dragon = Jon is not related to Dany's HoTU vision of the stone beast but rather Mel's line about awaking the stone dragon. :dunno: As to the stone beast stuff, yes, I also find it hilarious (and completely illogical) for this to be Dany herself. My own feeling is that the stone beast = Jon Connington (house sigil is a griffin) and shadow fire = spread of greyscale.

[Lord Varys]

Oh, well, I'm not so much into outlandish theories as I'm into this series so I get things confused sometimes ;-). I guess the idea that Jon is 'the stone dragon' is connected to this idea that Jon is 'the three-headed dragon' and everybody is just a red herring or not part of the overall Jon Snow hero story.

 

If it was 'Jon Stone' rather than 'Jon Snow' the idea of Jon being a 'stone dragon' could make some sense, but even if we bought all the hidden stuff connected to stone and Starks the question why the hell George would want to give us hints about Jon's identity/story by means of his Stark cousins rather than by establishing this 'stone connection' with himself - say, by having him hide stuff beneath stones or by the use of a false 'stone name'. If you would ask me on the top of my hat whether Jon Snow is any meaningful sense connected to 'stone' in this series I'd say no.

 

In my opinion, there won't be any knee-bending involving either Daenerys or Jon Snow. First because Jon Snow is never going to have the strength to challenge Daenerys' (or Aegon's, or Stannis') claim to the Iron Throne, second because he would not want to do that, and third because around the time Dany and Jon meet each other - if they meet each other at all - the overall situation will demand an alliance (which could even involve a marriage alliance if the NW is history at that point in the story - say, because the Wall has been destroyed by the Others and everyone in Westeros has effectively become 'a watcher on the walls' if he or she wants to survive). This doesn't mean Jon can't become king if he survives the series (and Dany doesn't) and the NW is eventually disbanded - but then, most likely as Dany's heir/successor rather than her rival.

[Consigliere]

Oh, well, I'm not so much into outlandish theories as I'm into this series so I get things confused sometimes ;-). I guess the idea that Jon is 'the stone dragon' is connected to this idea that Jon is 'the three-headed dragon' and everybody is just a red herring or not part of the overall Jon Snow hero story.

 

Well, personally, I think that the 3HD refers to one person i.e. TPtwP. Whether this is Jon remains to be seen, though, I do think that Jon is TPtwP. However, I don't consider this as diminishing others story arc. There can be more than one 'hero story' afterall and it will require the actions of a number of people to overcome the threat of the coming long night.

 

 

If it was 'Jon Stone' rather than 'Jon Snow' the idea of Jon being a 'stone dragon' could make some sense, but even if we bought all the hidden stuff connected to stone and Starks the question why the hell George would want to give us hints about Jon's identity/story by means of his Stark cousins rather than by establishing this 'stone connection' with himself - say, by having him hide stuff beneath stones or by the use of a false 'stone name'. If you would ask me on the top of my hat whether Jon Snow is any meaningful sense connected to 'stone' in this series I'd say no.

 

I'm not completely sold on the idea but the Stark/stone connections to something hidden is not completely far fetched as far as I'm concerned and, as such, I'm not comfortable in categorically dismissing it. J. Stargaryen has mentioned something about the crypts reinforcing this stone link but unfortunately I cannot find that post. As to how this could potentially fit into Jon Snow = the stone dragon; Jon is half Stark (stone connection) with a hidden identity (stone connection again) that happens to be Targaryen (dragon part). As to why Martin would do this, well, interpreting prophecy is not supposed to be easy. ;)

 

 

 

In my opinion, there won't be any knee-bending involving either Daenerys or Jon Snow. First because Jon Snow is never going to have the strength to challenge Daenerys' (or Aegon's, or Stannis') claim to the Iron Throne, second because he would not want to do that, and third because around the time Dany and Jon meet each other - if they meet each other at all - the overall situation will demand an alliance (which could even involve a marriage alliance if the NW is history at that point in the story - say, because the Wall has been destroyed by the Others and everyone in Westeros has effectively become 'a watcher on the walls' if he or she wants to survive). This doesn't mean Jon can't become king if he survives the series (and Dany doesn't) and the NW is eventually disbanded - but then, most likely as Dany's heir/successor rather than her rival.

 

I'm on board with this. I don't see Dany bending the knee to Jon (or vice versa) and, honestly, all this speculation of Jon getting everything (dragon, direwolf, cool swords, becoming king, saviour of humanity etc) does get a bit tiresome. The second dance most likely involves Young Griff. I seriously doubt that there will be a third dance involving Jon and Dany. An alliance seems much more likely.

[srini]

Did Robert or his supporters go after Targaryen bastards?

 

Answer to this can provide inside into Ned's reasons for cover-up of "R+L=J".

[Consigliere]

Did Robert or his supporters go after Targaryen bastards?

 

Answer to this can provide inside into Ned's reasons for cover-up of "R+L=J".

 

Not that we know of. Although this is not necessary for Ned's reasons. The murders of Rhaenys and Aegon and Roberts subsequent response to that is reason enough for Ned. We know that Ned and Robert had a falling out over that.

[Alia of the knife]

If he didn't care about blood, though, why the wish to have a daughter so Rhaegar can marry a sister? And why send to Volantis (and only Volantis) for a potential bride (most likely with at least some demands concerning the girl)?

I agree that, when all the other options failed, Aerys sought a match with Targaryen blood which would politically be most advantageous (for reasons you've mentioned).

In the end, we have to wonder.. did Aerys choose Elia, did Rhaegar suggest her, or did Mama Martell suggest her? The OK would have come from Aerys, to be sure, in the end.

I'm wondering when the ice/fire thing occurred to Rhaegar then?

And from my reading, Elias mother was the one who pushed it, and maybe bluffingly made veiled threats given Aerys dislike of the Dornish?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Did Robert or his supporters go after Targaryen bastards?
 
Answer to this can provide inside into Ned's reasons for cover-up of "R+L=J".

There are no known Targaryen bastards. So there was no one to 'go after'.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I'm wondering when the ice/fire thing occurred to Rhaegar then?

And from my reading, Elias mother was the one who pushed it, and maybe bluffingly made veiled threats given Aerys dislike of the Dornish?

I figured his fresh mislike towards the Dornish came from the fact that they all grouped around Rhaegar after the marriage.

Edit: who says the ice/fire came to him in regards to a marriage? Perhaps he interprets it as the war against the others, who represent ice.. And he still believed he himself was the promised prince when he married, no?

[Lord Varys]

There wouldn't be any need to go after Targaryen bastards considering the relative weakness of their claims. Gaemon Palehair wasn't killed even after he had been proclaimed king, and neither Renly nor Stannis moved against Edric Storm despite the fact that he was Robert's acknowledged natural son (or rather, Stannis didn't because of his claim). That makes it rather unlikely that Robert would have considered any Targaryen bastard - be it Aerys' or Rhaegar's - a threat to his claim to the throne, and subsequently he would not have targeted Jon Snow if he had been Rhaegar's bastard by Lyanna.

 

The 'Song of Ice and Fire' seems to be part of the promised prince prophecy. Else Rhaegar wouldn't have mentioned that. One assume that the prophecy states that the song of the promised prince is the Song of Ice and Fire, just as Rhaegar tells Elia in the vision.

 

Now, about the Elia-Rhaegar match, we have to keep in mind that the may have been a rather strong Dornish faction at court prior to Elia's betrothal and subsequent marriage to Rhaegar. There is Prince Lewyn, who most likely already was a Kingsguard at that time since it is rather unlikely that Aerys II would appoint a man of advanced age to the position even if he was an exceptional warrior - not to mention that Lewyn most likely would have been married by then -, and then there is Ser Arthur Dayne, who, being Rhaegar's best friend, was either a Kingsguard from a very early age on or living at court prior to his investiture, getting close to Rhaegar this way. Either of them could have helped the Princess of Dorne to get to Aerys and feed him the idea that Elia might be a good choice for a bride. They might even have told him about Tywin's haughtiness after Joanna's death, and his arrogant expectancy/determination that Cersei would marry Rhaegar - that might really be enough for Aerys to agree to such a match considering that it would be a great way to spite Tywin.

 

But Elia's Valyrian blood most likely also played a role there. There don't seem to be any female Targaryen cousins of noble enough blood to be worthy of the Prince of Dragonstone - Brienne wasn't even born yet, and would have been too ugly anyway, and there were obviously no Baratheon or Velaryon girls of the right age (and bloodline, in the Baratheon case) available, which led to the Volantene mission in the first place. The fact that Aerys didn't consider any other cousins is also a strong sign that Rhae's line either died out or had no female descendants in the right age, as did Prince Duncan's (if he had children), Maegor's, and Vaella's.

[Ser Naufragus]

Since the loss of dragons the Empire was in turmoil since the Targs no longer had an iron grip. The rebellions were more frequent. The Lords were resenting Targ reforms. Egg and his wife were going to make political marriages but the kids messed that up. Summerhall killed off most of the family. You could count the Targs on one hand and the kingdoms were uniting. Politically, he needed a really good alliance marriage. It was a bad move to waste time looking over seas for the right blood.

Cersai would have been a better choice and met all his political needs and likely secure the Dynasty. But Tywin couldn't be trusted. the other heiresses were a bit too young. That left Elia. He got the military support he needed and an alliance. I think it was more political than her dragon blood.

Aerys is actually pretty smart when you strip away the crazy. Had R married cersai, it would have played out much like Robert. but since R was supposed to be hot maybe she would have platinum and golden children.

I would have to look at the tree but it seems like if Aerys concern was for Valyrian blood, he would have just found a Velyron.


Steffon's bride missions were likely more specific, looking for Blackfryes or something, or it was just a cover story.

[purple-eyes]

There wouldn't be any need to go after Targaryen bastards considering the relative weakness of their claims. Gaemon Palehair wasn't killed even after he had been proclaimed king, and neither Renly nor Stannis moved against Edric Storm despite the fact that he was Robert's acknowledged natural son (or rather, Stannis didn't because of his claim). That makes it rather unlikely that Robert would have considered any Targaryen bastard - be it Aerys' or Rhaegar's - a threat to his claim to the throne, and subsequently he would not have targeted Jon Snow if he had been Rhaegar's bastard by Lyanna.
 
The 'Song of Ice and Fire' seems to be part of the promised prince prophecy. Else Rhaegar wouldn't have mentioned that. One assume that the prophecy states that the song of the promised prince is the Song of Ice and Fire, just as Rhaegar tells Elia in the vision.
 
Now, about the Elia-Rhaegar match, we have to keep in mind that the may have been a rather strong Dornish faction at court prior to Elia's betrothal and subsequent marriage to Rhaegar. There is Prince Lewyn, who most likely already was a Kingsguard at that time since it is rather unlikely that Aerys II would appoint a man of advanced age to the position even if he was an exceptional warrior - not to mention that Lewyn most likely would have been married by then -, and then there is Ser Arthur Dayne, who, being Rhaegar's best friend, was either a Kingsguard from a very early age on or living at court prior to his investiture, getting close to Rhaegar this way. Either of them could have helped the Princess of Dorne to get to Aerys and feed him the idea that Elia might be a good choice for a bride. They might even have told him about Tywin's haughtiness after Joanna's death, and his arrogant expectancy/determination that Cersei would marry Rhaegar - that might really be enough for Aerys to agree to such a match considering that it would be a great way to spite Tywin.
 
But Elia's Valyrian blood most likely also played a role there. There don't seem to be any female Targaryen cousins of noble enough blood to be worthy of the Prince of Dragonstone - Brienne wasn't even born yet, and would have been too ugly anyway, and there were obviously no Baratheon or Velaryon girls of the right age (and bloodline, in the Baratheon case) available, which led to the Volantene mission in the first place. The fact that Aerys didn't consider any other cousins is also a strong sign that Rhae's line either died out or had no female descendants in the right age, as did Prince Duncan's (if he had children), Maegor's, and Vaella's.

Poor rhaegar. Whole kingdom could not provide him a dragon-blood bride.
Actually he should have married cersei. Since cersei loved him so much, probably she would behave much better. And she can give him much more children.

And also, princess of Dorne was companion of the queen. She and Joanna and queen were likely friends. So maybe she also played a role. So ironically, if Robert was a girl, he could be the best option for rhaegar. Even better than viserys since he is too young for rhaegar.

[SFDanny]

There wouldn't be any need to go after Targaryen bastards considering the relative weakness of their claims. Gaemon Palehair wasn't killed even after he had been proclaimed king, and neither Renly nor Stannis moved against Edric Storm despite the fact that he was Robert's acknowledged natural son (or rather, Stannis didn't because of his claim). That makes it rather unlikely that Robert would have considered any Targaryen bastard - be it Aerys' or Rhaegar's - a threat to his claim to the throne, and subsequently he would not have targeted Jon Snow if he had been Rhaegar's bastard by Lyanna.

 

 

Here we disagree, LV. It is not a question of a claim, it is a question of honor. Or what Robert perceives as honor. If Jon is a bastard he has no claim to the throne, except by force of arms, just as anyone else could claim it. Given Jon has no armies to rally behind him, at least as a child, even that threat is non-existant. No, Robert's threat to Jon is because he is the son of the man who stole Lyanna away from him. To Robert, Jon would not only be "dragonspawn" but he would be Rhaegar's "dragonspawn" through Robert's property, Lyanna.  Robert would never forget or forgive that.

[Sly Wren]

1. I agree that anytime anyone in the books tries to interpret the actual meaning of the prophecies, they do a bad job. But I think that those who study the prophecies know their content -- they just don't really know what the content means. We know that part of the prophecy is that TPTWP will come from the Aerys/Rhaella line. So any child of Rhaegar automatically is a potential candidate. We can be pretty sure Rhaegar was wrong about Aegon being TPTWP -- maybe he eventually figured out it would be Jon (as I and some others suspect) or maybe not. But I don't think that specific issue is what is important about the vision. The hint to Dany is not directly about Aegon or Jon (although I think if she knew Jon was Rhaegar's son, she would assume he was a head of the dragon) -- but rather the message to Dany is there are three heads of the dragon -- you are one of them -- find the other two. Dany says that there are two other men in the world she can trust and she has to find them -- so she gets the hint. But Rhaegar was not really talking to Dany because Dany needs to find two more and Rhaegar's statement was that there needs to be one more. Rhaegar was talking about his understand of his situation -- which really only makes sense if he is talking about the need to have a third child.

The first bolded only works if assume Rhaegar was right about the dragon's needing three heads. But can't see where that we have evidence in the text.

 

As for Dany saying she needs to find the two men she can trust, can't see how that innately means "they will be my dragon riders."

 

Agree that Rhaegar thinks the dragon must have three heads--but we don't know for sure why he thinks that or if he's right. And he might be thinking he needs a third child. Or just a third. He doesn't specify. Nor does the scene tell us whether or not he thinks Elia could have another child.

 

2. I agree it is Rhaegar in the moment. At that time, Rhaegar had only one sibling -- Viserys -- Dany was not born yet. He could not be talking about V as the third head because then he would not be saying that there must be one more -- he would say something like we finally have all three. There must be one more is a clear statement that the third either has not be identified or not been born yet. In context, I think it is clear he means a third child of his own. And, of course, he was wrong about his two children alive at that time being heads of the dragon -- but the vision reflects what he thought at that moment.

On the bolded--he doesn't say. He might be thinking it over while he harps. Might just be thinking about a child and amy think of Viserys later when/if he decides Elia can't give him another child.

 

As we agree--it's in the moment. And in the moment, there's no indication of "can't have another child with Elia" or "my siblings can't be third heads" or "I'm getting desperate and obsessed enough to steal a girl"--in this moment, all seems fairly well. So, can't see how scene pins down Rhaegar's motive for us. Potentially a hint? Sure. Defining his motive absolutely? Can't see how.

 

3. When I say "tricking" I only mean that the vision makes Rhaegar appear to look at Dany. I don't think vision Rhaegar thinks he is looking at Dany. But the vision makes it appear that way to get Dany's attention that she better listen closely to this message -- it is important to her future. And luckily she seems to get the message that there are three heads of the dragon who need to come together as a team -- and she is one of the heads. Vision-Rhaegar was not intending to tell her this -- he was talking about his situation at his time -- but the "magic" of the vision had him appear to look at her at the right time to get the message across that needed to be communicated to help her in her mission.

But the bolded is an assumption. All of that assumes Rhaegar is right about the prophecy, and the vision is a message. But the other visions in the House of the Undying--some are just the past. Some are future that never happens. As for looking at Dany, I agree it could be a hint. But the Wolf-Headed King (aka Robb) also looks at her. Really don't think Robb is looking to Dany for justice. Plus, the Undying are hardly trustworthy.

 

Throw in the shade of the evening and the fact that she only thinks it looks as if Rhaegar is looking at her--again, this could be a hint. But the text has not nailed it down at all.

 

4. I am not sure I get your bottom line logic. What the vision tells us is that Rhaegar thought there needed to be one more to complete the three heads of the dragon. Then logic comes in. Logic tells us that if he thinks there needs to be one more -- then he does not think the third head has been identified -- most likely because Rhaegar thinks his children will be the three heads and he only has two children. We then find out separately that Elia is told she can have no more children. So logic dictates that if Rhaegar thinks he needs to have 3 children to be the 3 heads -- and if he has only 2 children and his wife cannot have a third -- then he needs to find another woman to have the third child. We also know that he is trying to create a "dragon" which -- again logic -- means he probably thinks that person needs to be a full-blown Targ (not a bastard), so he needs to marry this second woman. Can I "prove" that this analysis is the only possible correct analysis -- of course we both know I cannot. But as you acknowledge, it is consistent with all the facts we have -- it best explains all the unanswered questions -- so until someone comes up with a more plausible explanation that also is consistent with the facts, I think this analysis serves as a pretty good working theory. 

The bolded is not the only option. We do not know if he ruled out his sibling, or future siblings, or anyone else--the vision does not tell us one way of another. And we do not know if he was desperate enough to steal Lyanna, let alone marry her. He might even have re-evaluated his position, as he did on thinking he was the PtwP himself. We don't know. The vision and text do not give us that. And logic does not assert this is the only option.

 

Agree fully that your theory is an option--but cannot see how the text rules out others or in any way makes Rhaegar look desperate enough to steal Lyanna--or anyone else. So, can't see how text has pinned down motive.