Do the Mountain Clans Abandon Stannis?

[Rickon Stark The Aulë]

I don't think the mountain clans will abandon Stannis. Jon tells Stannis that he must win over the mountain clans for himself, that they wouldn't even fight for the Starks without properly being asked and then accepting if they wanted to. Stannis went to the mountain clans and made a personal appeal. Since they agreed to fight for him, I doubt they would abandon him without cause. That just doesn't seem to be the way the mountain clans roll.

I think they will, once they find out that Rickon doesn't give a shit and refuses to go back with Davos and instead with the help of the Umbers and hopefully still alive Wyman Manderly just crown Rickon KITN. I mean like who will stop them once they regain moat cailian they can say fuck off to the IT. And they would do nothing about it and rickon wouldn't have to go the riverlands because he doesn't care.

I mean like guys, Rickon is like Tom bombadil with a violent streak and a gigantic Direwolf he simply doesn't give a fuck anymore, Who's to say he won't just flat out refuses Davos and crown himself KITN or does nothing.

I mean like if he does that, stannis can't attack with the Northerners because that defeats the purpose of them fighting for stannis, I mean guys look at all the angles.

Rickon has shown extreme resistance to any kind of taming take for example when he fights off the household guards when he is 3 and with a dull rusted iron sword. That's impressive so what makes you think Rickon when meeting Stannis will just go meekly and sit in a corner... no fucking way. Plus stannis can't use force on Rickon cause that will piss off the Northerners.

Rickon can do things on his own time and so can Bran saying that the northerners need stannis to get back starks is bullshit.

Frankly Stannis needs the North but the North doesn't need him.

[John Doe]

If they are as honorable as everyone says they are they will stick with Stannis as long as he doesn't turn against any Stark, which he probably won't.

[Sullen]

If they are as honorable as everyone says they are they will stick with Stannis as long as he doesn't turn against any Stark, which he probably won't.

I think that at this point, it's been established that the Northmen going on and on about honour is pure hypocrisy, and that they are as bad as the people down South as far as treachery and scheming goes.

[bent branch]

 

Frankly Stannis needs the North but the North doesn't need him.

This is a common opinion. I, however, disagree. If the North wants to be free themselves of the Boltons at this point in time they need Stannis because of all the family members being held as hostages. There are few house in the North that don't have at least one family member being held as a hostage by the IT. Stannis can go to war with Bolton without putting the Northern hostages at risk. Go back and look at what Wyman Manderly and Barbrey Dustin have to say on the issue.

[Rickon Stark The Aulë]

This is a common opinion. I, however, disagree. If the North wants to be free themselves of the Boltons at this point in time they need Stannis because of all the family members being held as hostages. There are few house in the North that don't have at least one family member being held as a hostage by the IT. Stannis can go to war with Bolton without putting the Northern hostages at risk. Go back and look at what Wyman Manderly and Barbrey Dustin have to say on the issue.

Wait how can the Northerners use Stannis and support him with troops and supplies and not get the hostages harmed, they're still backing his claim, yet if they do it alone the hostages are screwed.

Either way hostages will be a issue but Wyman got his son back 

“Foes and false friends are all around me, Lord Davos. They infest my city like roaches, and at night I feel them crawling over me.” The fat man’s fingers coiled into a fist, and all his chins trembled. “My son Wendel came to the Twins a guest. He ate Lord Walder’s bread and salt, and hung his sword upon the wall to feast with his friends. And they murdered him. Murdered, I say, and may the Freys choke upon their fables. I drink with Jared, jape with Symond, promise Rhaegar the hand of my own beloved granddaughter…but never think that means I have forgotten. The north remembers, Lord Davos. The north remembers, and the mummer’s farce is almost done. My son is home.”-Wyman Manderly

The Northmen don't have to put up with the fucking Frey's anymore or the IT or Stannis with Bran and Rickon under lock they could do a lot of damage.

[John Doe]

Frankly Stannis needs the North but the North doesn't need him.

Nope. They need Davos to get Rickon back and his troops and leadership are a useful addition.

[Nyrhex]

If, or let's say when the northern mountain clans find out that "Arya" or Jeyne Poole is a fake, do they abandon Stannis? They no longer have any reason to fight for him so what would be keeping them around?

 

And what would this mean for his eventual battle at Winterfell? 

Long thread, so I'll just go to the OP. The Northern Clansmen have little time to find out about fArya since in a few hours there is to be a battle. If they have not figured it out yet, it's not going to matter for the battle. Pretty much the same for Winterfell. Even if they do know, why turn on Stannis right before Winterfell? They want Arya, Bolton blood, and a worthy death because winter is about 5 minutes away and they have very few options for one. They are not looking forward to die in the cold so that thier families would have enough food, they are here to die. It's Stannis and his men who are only considering Winterfell and the entire Northern campaign a side-quest.

Next up is the question of the Northmen and Stannis, and would a Stark, fArya or Rickon or even Jon Snarkaryen are going to be a Lord Paramount sworn to Stannis, or KITN, with or without an alliance with Stannis to achieve tiher mutual goals. To be honest I can't say. Narrative reasons can take us either way, and just because turning on Stannis is one of the single most idiotic decisions they could make, doesn't actually mean they won't do it either way. GRRM can shield them from the logical conclusion if he so wishes, or he can let it be the next stratigically idiotic decision in the books because he wants to make sure we get the messae that everyone is just so much fucked.

I think they will, once they find out that Rickon doesn't give a shit and refuses to go back with Davos and instead with the help of the Umbers and hopefully still alive Wyman Manderly just crown Rickon KITN. I mean like who will stop them once they regain moat cailian they can say fuck off to the IT. And they would do nothing about it and rickon wouldn't have to go the riverlands because he doesn't care.

I mean like guys, Rickon is like Tom bombadil with a violent streak and a gigantic Direwolf he simply doesn't give a fuck anymore, Who's to say he won't just flat out refuses Davos and crown himself KITN or does nothing.

I mean like if he does that, stannis can't attack with the Northerners because that defeats the purpose of them fighting for stannis, I mean guys look at all the angles.

Rickon has shown extreme resistance to any kind of taming take for example when he fights off the household guards when he is 3 and with a dull rusted iron sword. That's impressive so what makes you think Rickon when meeting Stannis will just go meekly and sit in a corner... no fucking way. Plus stannis can't use force on Rickon cause that will piss off the Northerners.

Rickon can do things on his own time and so can Bran saying that the northerners need stannis to get back starks is bullshit.

Frankly Stannis needs the North but the North doesn't need him.

The bolded got me in how just out of touch with reality it is. Stannis can use the North, he does not need it, and even less so after the Theon gift chapter. The North without Stannis, or worse, the North making Stannis an enemy, can logically only lead to the North ending up with even more devastation and misery. Moat Cailin does'nt mean shit. Manderly's fleet is no where near enough to defend the Northern coasts. The North's fighting population is a joke compared to the south, and without heavy forced narrative the end of the next KITN is at best a few years away, at worst a few months.

And Rickon has no say in any of this. He would be purely a figurehead to whatever faction has control of him. He can declare himself king of unicorns, it doesn't mean shit.

[Seaworth'sShipmate]

For the present no.

 

However, they will if Stannis insists they burn their Weirwoods down or join him on a march south. The mountain clans care about the north, and are grateful for Stannis for helping them with that aim.

However, it is just an alliance of convenience.

[Taenqyrhae]

I tend to believe in some form of Northern conspiracy. Not specially because i want to see it happen, but i think that is what is set in motion. I'm not entirely clear on who will lead eventually even, although i wouldn't even be that surprised that it turns out Lady Dustin does pull some serious strings in it. What i'm fairly sure of is that the North is using Stannis and Bolton to weaken eachother, so once they have hacked into eachother, the North can reunite against the victor of that first battle. 

 

I think finally Lady Dustin will betray Bolton at a time he trusts her quite well. Bolton needs her allegiance. If Bolton doesn't have her at his side he looses the Houses Dustin and Ryswell and any ofthe houses that came with them, and he basicly will be left with with the Frey's. and we all know how 'loved' and 'competent' they are. 

 

I'm even thinking that Barbrey Dustin knows much more than she let's on. At this point i'm even starting to doubt if she really does hate Eddard Stark that hard. The reason for that is that she overplays that hatred, which makes her a suitable ally for anyone who wants to overtake the North. Although I do have to admit that it's hard to believe that she is actually that big of an actress that all the hate is feigned. But even if she has a grudge towards Eddard, this doesn't mean she has a grudge against House Stark in general. And her playing out her grudge towards Eddard's former actions, might still conceal very well her loyalties to the the Starks as Kings of Winter and Kings of the North. She's not stupid at all, and might be aware much more of the bigger picture and the history of the North. This makes her grudge towards Eddard the perfect cover.

 

The North remembers... and they might be slowly working toward a trap that was set much earlier. Stannis and Bolton are the ones caught up in that trap and  they just aren't seeing that yet. I think the North is just letting them engage with eachother so they can weaken their strengths while the North becomes stronger. 

 

From here on i'm going quite on the tinfoil hat./crackpot theory road: 

I've been thinking about Barbrey Dustin's role a lot as of late, and i'm not so sure about her. Sometimes i think that it might have been possible that Eddard told her more about some of the implications of ToJ (not about Jon and his parentage), more about the battle. Maybe Eddard revealed something about these events and the role of William Dustin in it all, maybe it was some future implications that Howland had revealed to Eddard (don't forget that Howland did go to the Isle of Faces, which might be where he saw some things of the future through weirwoods). But sometimes i think Eddard revealed some things to her, but then also made her take an oath infront of a weirwood tree. This might be something where Barbrey's hate would become even more feigned than we'd suspect. It just feels like she knows something more, and it might have been Eddard who revealed it to her long ago. This isn't supported by anything in the text, but i've considered that it could be one of the things that followed from ToJ. I get that Barbrey is offended by Eddard not returning the bones of William Dustin, but i think there was more to it. I think Barbrey would have demanded a serious explanation, and i don't see Ned just witholding  information about his reasons or actions to the widow of his former bannerman. 

 

What i'm trying to say is that to me it seems very odd for someone like Eddard Stark to not return the bones of his most loyal bannerman. He seems to be all about honor, respect, responsability and loyalty. This makes it hard for me to accept that he would not take the bones home of those men without a good reason. It doesn't seem much, and it's something that is easy to ovelook and dismiss as unimportant, but that kind of act coming from Ned is really odd. Especially because it looks like he had the time and the means to take back those bones. So, this makes me wonder if there was more to it. Thing is that i sometimes think there is much more to it. Personally i think there is a good reason to believe Ashara Dayne's death was staged, and that she is still alive. If that is the case, it isn't that far a stretch to consider that Barbrey might have gotten the privilege to be in on some info too. Thing is i can't pinpoint it or prove any of it, so i'm going to leave this as it is and chalk it up as a consideration. 

 

But before you go bashing in on that tought, consider that the implications of it might be quite big. If Barbrey was in on some info she got from Eddard a while ago, her role might still have much more to it then we all think. Still, it's not essential that she is in on info that she had gotten from Ned, to still be a spy in the camp of Roose Bolton. She has said and done several things that make me think she is a spy/traitor just waiting for the right moment to give Bolton the final push into his own demise as ruler of the North. Her pulling back from him and turning on him at the right time, can be a devastating blow  to Roose's power over the North. Since she's so crucial to Bolton, such an action from her side might unravel Roose's grip on the North completely. 

I have a theory that Dustin has some of the old, pre CotF First Men magic that allowed them to commune with the bones of their ancestors, both from her Barrowlands origins, and the name Dustin being evocative of things ancient and dead.  This was largely lost when the First Men made their alliance with the Children and began using the Weirnet for storing their dead spirits, but she knows these things and Roose knows it.

She was originally mad at Ned for keeping her husband's bones away, which he did because he did not want the secret of the Tower of Joy to get out, knowing that the people of the Barrowlands can speak with bones.  She originally was allied with Roose until she captured Ned's bones on their way back to Winterfell and questioned them.  Now that she knows the reasons why she was not allowed to commune with her dead husband, she is secretly working against Roose.  I think this is why Roose feels secure with the fArya ploy - Dustin has lied to him and said that Ned saw Arya killed in King's Landing, instead of letting him know that Ned saw that she escaped.

[bent branch]

Wait how can the Northerners use Stannis and support him with troops and supplies and not get the hostages harmed, they're still backing his claim, yet if they do it alone the hostages are screwed.

Either way hostages will be a issue but Wyman got his son back 

“Foes and false friends are all around me, Lord Davos. They infest my city like roaches, and at night I feel them crawling over me.” The fat man’s fingers coiled into a fist, and all his chins trembled. “My son Wendel came to the Twins a guest. He ate Lord Walder’s bread and salt, and hung his sword upon the wall to feast with his friends. And they murdered him. Murdered, I say, and may the Freys choke upon their fables. I drink with Jared, jape with Symond, promise Rhaegar the hand of my own beloved granddaughter…but never think that means I have forgotten. The north remembers, Lord Davos. The north remembers, and the mummer’s farce is almost done. My son is home.”-Wyman Manderly

The Northmen don't have to put up with the fucking Frey's anymore or the IT or Stannis with Bran and Rickon under lock they could do a lot of damage.

You have to look at which families have hostages and which families don't. None of the mountain clans have hostages. Neither do the Manderlys, Mormonts, or Glovers. The Karstarks have a hostage family member, but they are doing what they're doing for the promise that family member will be killed.

The northerners who are backing Stannis openly at this point have no family members being held hostage (except the Karstarks and Umbers, who have one backing Stannis and one backing Roose). By allowing (covertly helping) Stannis to take down Bolton, the North gets their revenge and freedom without putting their family members at risk by open defiance. At one point Lady Dustin practically says this to Theon.

[John Doe]

If they don't need Stannis at all I don't see why they declared for him in the first place instead of letting him and Bolton fight it out and then taking on the winner.

[StarkofWinterfell]

I have a theory that Dustin has some of the old, pre CotF First Men magic that allowed them to commune with the bones of their ancestors, both from her Barrowlands origins, and the name Dustin being evocative of things ancient and dead.  This was largely lost when the First Men made their alliance with the Children and began using the Weirnet for storing their dead spirits, but she knows these things and Roose knows it.
She was originally mad at Ned for keeping her husband's bones away, which he did because he did not want the secret of the Tower of Joy to get out, knowing that the people of the Barrowlands can speak with bones.  She originally was allied with Roose until she captured Ned's bones on their way back to Winterfell and questioned them.  Now that she knows the reasons why she was not allowed to commune with her dead husband, she is secretly working against Roose.  I think this is why Roose feels secure with the fArya ploy - Dustin has lied to him and said that Ned saw Arya killed in King's Landing, instead of letting him know that Ned saw that she escaped.

Wait is this true?

[Rickon Stark The Aulë]

Nope. They need Davos to get Rickon back and his troops and leadership are a useful addition.

No they don't. It's pretty obvious that they had already planned the rescue of Rickon they just needed someone to do the job or they are screwing over Davos,trying to get him killed,.

Stannis is one of the best battle commanders hands down but his troops are shit in the North,and the majority of his army are Northerners.

The bolded got me in how just out of touch with reality it is. Stannis can use the North, he does not need it, and even less so after the Theon gift chapter. The North without Stannis, or worse, the North making Stannis an enemy, can logically only lead to the North ending up with even more devastation and misery. Moat Cailin does'nt mean shit. Manderly's fleet is no where near enough to defend the Northern coasts. The North's fighting population is a joke compared to the south, and without heavy forced narrative the end of the next KITN is at best a few years away, at worst a few months.

Stannis can use the North true... but will the North let him?

Making Stannis their king will screw over the North and spit in the face of all the people that died for Independence, The North has been Nothing but a ragdoll for the 7 kingdoms for the past 300 years.

And if the North was such a useless cause why does stannis go there, can't he go to the vale or secure his power in the storm-lands.

Moat Cailin does mean shit.Why you ask because the man who holds Moat Cailin holds the North, and the Starks had done that for years and why losing it was such a huge blow to Robb's cause. The reason why the North has managed to stay free and under stark control before the conquest was because of the 3 argueably ruined tower's. Moat cailin is HUGE and to dismiss it is a huge mistake. Even when a small number of Iron-born hold it, The Northmen south of the neck think it's a lost cause.

Manderly's fleet seems quite huge. But you are right they made the boat's on the Wrong side of the North. 

[bent branch]

No they don't. It's pretty obvious that they had already planned the rescue of Rickon they just needed someone to do the job or they are screwing over Davos,trying to get him killed,.

Stannis is one of the best battle commanders hands down but his troops are shit in the North,and the majority of his army are Northerners.

Stannis can use the North true... but will the North let him?

Making Stannis their king will screw over the North and spit in the face of all the people that died for Independence, The North has been Nothing but a ragdoll for the 7 kingdoms for the past 300 years.

And if the North was such a useless cause why does stannis go there, can't he go to the vale or secure his power in the storm-lands.

Moat Cailin does mean shit.Why you ask because the man who holds Moat Cailin holds the North, and the Starks had done that for years and why losing it was such a huge blow to Robb's cause. The reason why the North has managed to stay free and under stark control before the conquest was because of the 3 argueably ruined tower's. Moat cailin is HUGE and to dismiss it is a huge mistake. Even when a small number of Iron-born hold it, The Northmen south of the neck think it's a lost cause.

Manderly's fleet seems quite huge. But you are right they made the boat's on the Wrong side of the North. 

Yes they do. Here is the explanation why from Chapter 29-ADWD (it might help you to understand if you have a map out showing the White Harbor region to look at while reading):

Old instinct made Davos Seaworth reach for his throat. His fingerbones had been his luck, and somehow he felt he would have need of luck to do what Wyman Manderly was asking of him. The bones were gone, though, so he said, "You have better men than me in your service. Knights and lords and maesters. Why would you need a smuggler? You have ships."

"Ships," Lord Wyman agreed, "but my crews are rivermen, or fisherfolk who have never sailed beyond the Bite. For this I must have a man who's sailed in darker waters and knows how to slip past dangers, unseen and unmolested."

So what Wyman is saying is that he has no one with experience on the open ocean. This is a problem in retrieving Rickon, because to leave from White Harbor and go to Skagos they will have to travel over open ocean. In fact, this is a problem for Wyman's entire navy. It will be interesting to see how the problem is solved in future books.

[Jedi Renee]

Are people on this board so moronically biased that they don't see just how different Stannis is compared to anyone else from the south??

The guy comes to the aid of the Nights Watch, something that NOBODY from the north bothered to do.

Stannis is helping get rid of the Ironborn and is restoring castles to their rightful houses.

Stannis is trying to destroy the Boltons who completely betrayed their own countrymen.

 

Stannis is an absolute godsend for the north, this guy comes north with hardly any men to help the north.

 

If anyone from the north plans on betraying Stannis, it will prove that northerners are full of shit and have ZERO honor.

this

[John Doe]

No they don't. It's pretty obvious that they had already planned the rescue of Rickon they just needed someone to do the job or they are screwing over Davos,trying to get him killed,.

Stannis is one of the best battle commanders hands down but his troops are shit in the North,and the majority of his army are Northerners.

 

Stannis has now the backing of the IB, which means he has access to more money and soldiers than any northern lord can afford, probably more than the whole North will  have left after their civil war is over.

[StarkofWinterfell]

Stannis has now the backing of the IB, which means he has access to more money and soldiers than any northern lord can afford, probably more than the whole North will  have left after their civil war is over.

But where are those troops? He has the word of the Iron Bank, nothing else

[Taenqyrhae]

Interesting question - if whatsisface comes back with a huge army of mercenaries from Essos to find that Stannis and his family is extinct, who gets the mercenaries?  What are they going to want to do with them?

The Iron Bank may be trying to conquer a portion of Westeros for itself.  Braavos is against slavery, and Stannis is fighting people who keep thralls and salt wives.  Do you think they are going to tell the mercs "job cancelled" if Stan is dead?

[Light a wight tonight]

I think that at this point, it's been established that the Northmen going on and on about honour is pure hypocrisy, and that they are as bad as the people down South as far as treachery and scheming goes.

IMO, all the going-on about Northern honor comes from the posters here, not the Northerners themselves. Not from Bolton or Manderly and not from the hill tribes, for sure. Besides which honor has different meanings depending on who uses the term. I might mean one's family's reputation or it might mean adherence to a moral or ethical code. Or it might mean a horse, if you're Jaime.