Merging Story Lines

[dornishdame]

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Your ability to recall this stuff amazes me.  Now that it's out there I can't help but muse over the connections between the North and Vale at the clan level.   It's very interesting that the clans would stay in the Vale instead of migrating North.   I'll ponder this a bit and come back to you with 203 questions.

My level of recall is limited - tends to be a combination of recalling vague passages (like Catelyn's comment about the knights of summer, for example) and perusing a search of ice and fire for the exact quote and chapter! I do also have a habit, left over from my schooldays, of recalling sections/quotes from books. Comes from having to study texts for exams and being able to recall sections for essay quotations. 

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I've suspected that the house words are some hint to either the story at large or on some lesser more regional level.   Still House Royce is ancient so I'm going with "larger" straight off my hip.  

I tend to think of it as being part of the larger story for 2 reasons. 1 - The Royces still send sons north to the Night's Watch. Other than Sam, forced into it by his father, and the likes of Ser Jaremy Rykker and Ser Alliser Thorne, who took the black after Tywin's sack of KL, the vast majority of those of noble blood or knightly blood in the Night's Watch are northerners. Yes, we have Ser Endrew Tarth and Ser Denys Mallister, but the Royces are one of the very few families left outside the north that remain regular contributors to the officer ranks of the Watch. 2 - The runes on the Royce sigil, and which seem to feature on the armor Ser Waymar wears in Thrones seems to indicate that the symbols of the House go back a long way. Back to when there were hundreds of kings who all sent sons north. I think that the Royce link is interesting if you look at the theories surrounding Ser Waymar's death and the possibility that he was mistaken initially for a Stark. 

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

War hasn't seemed to end at all throughout the last 4 books.   The threat is looming on all fronts.  Tywin and his great battle command ending only opened the door of opportunity for multiple groups to invade.  I'm hoping Stannis will at some point gain enough respect to prevent even more invasions.    I have a lot of hope for Stannis and view him as a constantly changing creature.  Without Mel and Davos to influence him he is left to his own devices, which as we are seeing, are strong and clever.    Still he is in a most precarious situation with so many enemies and casual alliances.   I am hoping Asha stays with him and proves the value of her request to make her "his man".   The anit-Euron IB need an alliance and Stannis has more to offer than anyone I can see on the board.  Just seeds in the wind again, but while I hope for greatness from Stannis I expect it from Asha.

I think I meant more that with Renly and Balon dead, and Stannis and Robb defeated through the Battle of the Blackwater and the Red Wedding respectively, from a KL perspective the war the Lannisters set out to fight is over as far as they are concerned. What remains is a series of small uprisings by smallfolk and the remnants of the BwB, and the Blackfish holding out. I think perhaps describing it as a lull is better; the combatants that came together in Clash have been defeated (to a certain extent - as you say, Stannis is still standing) and new threats are about to rise in the form of Euron, Aegon and the Golden Company, and the Dornish. Stannis will, I think, be with us for some of Winds, but I do not expect him to survive the book. I think that by the end of Winds, the Baratheon line will have diminished to a combination of very distant cousins (wish we had a Baratheon family tree like those we have for the Lannisters, Starks and Targaryens!) and Robert's bastards. Stannis is a good battle commander, and we will finally be able to see what he can do without having to tackle both wildfire and Melisandre's influence. I can see him winning more battles in the north, but not reaching the Neck to go south. 

As for Asha, a Stannis defeat may enable her and Theon to slip away and back to the Iron Islands. I know I have previously speculated that she may die in Winds, and I do still hold to that. But that is not necessarily incompatible with her going back home with Theon first and trying to have the Kingsmoot overturned. My thoughts on the matter remain fluid. And I do wonder if the two of them were to join up with Aeron, what could be achieved. I know you are a big Asha fan (and I have to admit I like her more and more each time I re-read the books) and I believe her to be a lot more capable militarily than both Theon and Aeron. 

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

There is a topic going now trying to investigate what Ned's promise to Lyanna might have been.  I can only base the promise upon Ned's actions and see the need for secrecy.  I don't know that there was a better way to handle any of it.   Despite Rickard's Southron Ambitions Ned is still something of an isolationist and does not trust even Cat easily.   I'm certain this is all for Jon and hope Jon is able to realize the sacrifice that was put into raising him.   We often think Jon is Ned's sonj.   Does this do justice to Rhaegar or Ned?   I'm not sure.   I know Ned, not Rhaegar.   Still Rhaegar may have been a man Ned held in high esteem.    I need another Barristan story.   I need Ashara Dayne.   We can't know for certain.  I cannot help but hpe Jon will learn everything and trust he will do wise things with the knowledge.  

I will address the 'promise me, Ned' issue below......as for the rest........while we the reader think of Ned as Jon's father regardless of his true parentage, I think Jon himself would say the same. 

He is not my father. The thought leapt unbidden to Jon's mind. Lord Eddard Stark is my father. I will not forget him, no matter how many swords they give me. Yet he could scarcely tell Lord Mormont that it was another man's sword he dreamt of …(Jon VIII in Thrones)

These are Jon's thoughts when Mormont gives him Longclaw; it was Ned not Rhaegar that ensured Jon was fed, watered and clothed from the day he was born, Ned that put a sword in his hand, Ned that taught and advised him, it is Ned that forms his conscience and his code of honor. It is Ned he thinks of wanting to follow; it is Ned's son he wants to be considered worthy of being. Other than being the man who impregnated Lyanna, Rhaegar has never been a father figure to Jon, and has had no role or purpose in his upbringing. As I think I have said before, Jon's concept of his entire identity is based upon one thing.......being Ned Stark's son. And that is why, as I have said before, I think he will be devastated to learn Rhaegar fathered him. 

Rhaegar means nothing to Jon, and we can only hope that in the end Jon will know everything. And that he thinks of Aemon, his unknown blood relation, and realizes what he and Rhaegar have in common. I think I referred a few posts ago to the number of times Jon thinks about Ned when with Ygritte, and how hard it must have been for Ned to leave his mother. If we replace Ned with Rhaegar, then we have the basis of a parallel. Again, I believe Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and that her first meeting with Rhaegar (whom I believe unmasked her) has some parallels with Jon's first meeting with Ygritte. 

Barristan - I too look forward to more information on Ashara Dayne. And to his recollections of what happened in KL following Rhaegar and Lyanna's disappearance. If we ever get them. He must have been there with King Aerys.

As for Ned being an isolationist, I think that he saw what had come from Rickard's Southron ambitions - his father, brother and sister dead, the impact it had on him personally - and decided that the 'pack' needed to stay close to home. There would be no fosterings or trips to KL to see Jon Arryn and King Robert (though I think this was also partly to do with Jon). 

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

That's a stunning statement Dame.  Perhaps Ned himself is aware of TPTWP prophesy?   Gads that never crossed my mind. 

I don't think that Ned was ever aware of the prophecy. I was thinking more of the following thought we have from Ned's POV:

Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body? He did not know. He prayed he never would. (Eddard XII in Thrones)

It sort of ties into the promise Ned made, which I will discuss below. I think he thought Jon was safer if nobody else but he and Howland Reed knew who he truly was. And while he might think (as he would, loving Catelyn) that he doesn't know what choice she would make, those of us who have read Catelyn's POV chapters can safely say that she would always protect her children over Jon. They would always come first. And I can't criticize her for that. In general, I think Ned did come to trust Catelyn and to love her. But when he took Jon home at the end of the war, she was still a stranger with whom he had spent a hurried honeymoon at Riverrun after a political marriage was agreed. 

Some secrets are safer kept hidden. Some secrets are too dangerous to share, even with those you love and trust. (Eddard VIII in Thrones)

Ned trusts Catelyn with his life, but I think he swore a vow to Lyanna that he lets take precedence over all else. 

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

The table is set in the Riverlands for Arya's return to action.  I believe she will travel a great deal upon returning to Westeros, but where she lands will be critical to the big story as well as her arc.   If Arya's wolfblood is up she will need the counsel of a tempered killer and perhaps a meeting with a real monster fueled by vengeance to counter what she could become.    I think this scenario offers Arya  the most potential to get back on track with a just cause and just vengeance.    They all have something to learn and Arya needs to take her child soldier to maturity.   She was not meant to follow.  

This mention of child soldiers did give me brief pause for thought - what about a reunion with someone we know to be in the Riverlands, someone we know as a protector, and someone who knows who Arya truly is.......Gendry. We cannot be done with him yet, surely?

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

That's all for this morning.   I will try to address the rest of your post this evening.   Any thought's regarding what the promise was?

I tend to think that there was not a singular promise as such, but rather a series of small ones covering a main theme - protect her son. I think that Lyanna knew what had happened at the Trident and in KL (the three Kingsguard in Ned's dream seem to, and although we are told that you cannot take everything as written given it is a fever dream, I think you can take this part from it; it is also a dream that Ned has had before so there are huge truths in it) and I think that she knew she was dying. I think she asked Ned to ensure that her son never wanted for anything, that Robert should never knew who he was, and that Ned treat the child well. I think she may have impressed upon him that whatever he thought of Rhaegar, this was her son and as such Ned's own blood. She has to have mentioned Rhaegar too; Ned never has a negative thought about him, and in fact even compares him favorably to Robert at least once. As I say, ultimately I think that she asked Ned to protect Jon from those they both knew would wish him harm. But I also think that she asked Ned to tell her son the truth one day. And that part of the vow is why we get this:

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast. He winced, his fingers opening and closing helplessly. (Eddard XV in Thrones)

Along with this:

"Would you at least consent to carry a message out for me?" (Eddard XV in Thrones)

And this:

Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals the thorns lay hidden. He felt them clawing at his skin, sharp and cruel, saw the slow trickle of blood run down his fingers, and woke, trembling, in the dark.

Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses.(Eddard XV in Thrones)

The above, combined with the crypt dream Bran has below, makes me think that there was that last piece of the promise.....to tell Jon who he truly was one day. And I do wonder if/when Bran will put all the pieces together when he has more visions in Winds. 

The mention of dreams reminded him. "I dreamed about the crow again last night. The one with three eyes. He flew into my bedchamber and told me to come with him, so I did. We went down to the crypts. Father was there, and we talked. He was sad."

"And why was that?" Luwin peered through his tube.

"It was something to do about Jon, I think." The dream had been deeply disturbing, more so than any of the other crow dreams. (Bran VII in Thrones)

[Curled Finger]

On ‎3‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 8:32 AM, dornishdame said:

I tend to think of it as being part of the larger story for 2 reasons. 1 - The Royces still send sons north to the Night's Watch. Other than Sam, forced into it by his father, and the likes of Ser Jaremy Rykker and Ser Alliser Thorne, who took the black after Tywin's sack of KL, the vast majority of those of noble blood or knightly blood in the Night's Watch are northerners. Yes, we have Ser Endrew Tarth and Ser Denys Mallister, but the Royces are one of the very few families left outside the north that remain regular contributors to the officer ranks of the Watch. 2 - The runes on the Royce sigil, and which seem to feature on the armor Ser Waymar wears in Thrones seems to indicate that the symbols of the House go back a long way. Back to when there were hundreds of kings who all sent sons north. I think that the Royce link is interesting if you look at the theories surrounding Ser Waymar's death and the possibility that he was mistaken initially for a Stark.   I read that theory with utter fascination.   I am hoping that like the reason for A Stark Must Always Be In Winterfell we will learn what those runes on the Royce sigil mean.  Don't they also own a suit of armor that dates back to the Andal invasion that also sports these runes?

...Stannis is still standing) and new threats are about to rise in the form of Euron, Aegon and the Golden Company, and the Dornish. Stannis will, I think, be with us for some of Winds, but I do not expect him to survive the book. I think that by the end of Winds, the Baratheon line will have diminished to a combination of very distant cousins (wish we had a Baratheon family tree like those we have for the Lannisters, Starks and Targaryens!) and Robert's bastards. Stannis is a good battle commander, and we will finally be able to see what he can do without having to tackle both wildfire and Melisandre's influence. I can see him winning more battles in the north, but not reaching the Neck to go south .I just reread Arienne Martell I during some down time at work today and was struck by how bad she really thinks Darkstar is.  Could he also be a potential threat?   Stannis is such a tragedy.  What other battles could there be in the North after the battle of ice?  I could be only thinking small here, but no one actually likes the Boltons?  Once the scandal with Jon comes to light I suppose there could be some sort of vigilante attack on the Neck (Bowen Marsh's folks maybe) but I can't see Stannis going that route when he has so much to do.   

I will address the 'promise me, Ned' issue below......as for the rest........while we the reader think of Ned as Jon's father regardless of his true parentage, I think Jon himself would say the same. 

He is not my father. The thought leapt unbidden to Jon's mind. Lord Eddard Stark is my father. I will not forget him, no matter how many swords they give me. Yet he could scarcely tell Lord Mormont that it was another man's sword he dreamt of …(Jon VIII in Thrones)

These are Jon's thoughts when Mormont gives him Longclaw; it was Ned not Rhaegar that ensured Jon was fed, watered and clothed from the day he was born, Ned that put a sword in his hand, Ned that taught and advised him, it is Ned that forms his conscience and his code of honor. It is Ned he thinks of wanting to follow; it is Ned's son he wants to be considered worthy of being. Other than being the man who impregnated Lyanna, Rhaegar has never been a father figure to Jon, and has had no role or purpose in his upbringing. As I think I have said before, Jon's concept of his entire identity is based upon one thing.......being Ned Stark's son. And that is why, as I have said before, I think he will be devastated to learn Rhaegar fathered him.   Agreed to initially.   We've speculated that Jon will rise more wolfish and dangerous.    Shouldn't we expect his outlook to change with that?  I think Jon will always love and be loyal to Ned, still coming into the knowledge of his true lineage will have to play into his arc.   At some point I think he will have to embrace his dragonness.

Rhaegar means nothing to Jon, and we can only hope that in the end Jon will know everything. And that he thinks of Aemon, his unknown blood relation, and realizes what he and Rhaegar have in common. I think I referred a few posts ago to the number of times Jon thinks about Ned when with Ygritte, and how hard it must have been for Ned to leave his mother. If we replace Ned with Rhaegar, then we have the basis of a parallel. Again, I believe Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and that her first meeting with Rhaegar (whom I believe unmasked her) has some parallels with Jon's first meeting with Ygritte.   I had to think about that and I have to tell you I think you could be dead on with this train of thought.   If Jon ever learns the whole truth he may also come to see the love in complete opposites in exactly the same manner he grew to love Ygritte.   This was a really nice catch Dame.

Barristan - I too look forward to more information on Ashara Dayne. And to his recollections of what happened in KL following Rhaegar and Lyanna's disappearance. If we ever get them. He must have been there with King Aerys.  I think the best I can hope for with Barristan is some mention to Dany about this other woman her brother fell for.  It would be curious for Barristan not to know a whole lot more of the backstory between Lyanna and Rhaegar.    That hope is looking very doubtful as I don't expect Dany and Ser Grampa will ever meet again.   That said, I'm hoping for the real Ashara Dayne herself to show up and spill her guts.  

I don't think that Ned was ever aware of the prophecy. I was thinking more of the following thought we have from Ned's POV:

Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body? He did not know. He prayed he never would. (Eddard XII in Thrones)

It sort of ties into the promise Ned made, which I will discuss below. I think he thought Jon was safer if nobody else but he and Howland Reed knew who he truly was. And while he might think (as he would, loving Catelyn) that he doesn't know what choice she would make, those of us who have read Catelyn's POV chapters can safely say that she would always protect her children over Jon. They would always come first. And I can't criticize her for that. In general, I think Ned did come to trust Catelyn and to love her. But when he took Jon home at the end of the war, she was still a stranger with whom he had spent a hurried honeymoon at Riverrun after a political marriage was agreed. 

Some secrets are safer kept hidden. Some secrets are too dangerous to share, even with those you love and trust. (Eddard VIII in Thrones)

Ned trusts Catelyn with his life, but I think he swore a vow to Lyanna that he lets take precedence over all else.  I keep coming back and reading all this over and over.    And yes, Jon being Rhaegar's son would have been enough for Robert for Ned to hold his secret--even from Jon.   So much is lost in keeping this vow and you make mention of several vows.   Perhaps Ned didn't know TPTWP prophesy.  Then again, why wouldn't Lyanna have told him?

This mention of child soldiers did give me brief pause for thought - what about a reunion with someone we know to be in the Riverlands, someone we know as a protector, and someone who knows who Arya truly is.......Gendry. We cannot be done with him yet, surely?  I'm quite sure we aren't done with Gendry by a long shot--or Sandor Clegane or Ned Dayne as far as all that goes.   Gendry has a lot going on in his story:  Curiosity for what Brienne wanted to tell him when she was so brutally attacked.  I wouldn't be surprised if he actually ends up helping our Lady of Tarth when we see her next.    His position as both a knight and smith play into more than 2 plots and though I can't actually get him to a sword I do expect him to figure prominently in the arranging of the quest.   My sword preoccupation prevents me from even wanting OK & WW reforged back into Ice, but I think Gendry will be able to identify VS at an unexpected time.   His role as a knight in the place he is, with orphaned children, screams his desire to protect.  Why not protect Arya?   He's angry, not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

I tend to think that there was not a singular promise as such, but rather a series of small ones covering a main theme - protect her son. I think that Lyanna knew what had happened at the Trident and in KL (the three Kingsguard in Ned's dream seem to, and although we are told that you cannot take everything as written given it is a fever dream, I think you can take this part from it; it is also a dream that Ned has had before so there are huge truths in it) and I think that she knew she was dying. I think she asked Ned to ensure that her son never wanted for anything, that Robert should never knew who he was, and that Ned treat the child well. I think she may have impressed upon him that whatever he thought of Rhaegar, this was her son and as such Ned's own blood. She has to have mentioned Rhaegar too; Ned never has a negative thought about him, and in fact even compares him favorably to Robert at least once. As I say, ultimately I think that she asked Ned to protect Jon from those they both knew would wish him harm. But I also think that she asked Ned to tell her son the truth one day. And that part of the vow is why we get this:

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast. He winced, his fingers opening and closing helplessly. (Eddard XV in Thrones)

Along with this:

"Would you at least consent to carry a message out for me?" (Eddard XV in Thrones)

And this:

Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals the thorns lay hidden. He felt them clawing at his skin, sharp and cruel, saw the slow trickle of blood run down his fingers, and woke, trembling, in the dark.

Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses.(Eddard XV in Thrones)

The above, combined with the crypt dream Bran has below, makes me think that there was that last piece of the promise.....to tell Jon who he truly was one day. And I do wonder if/when Bran will put all the pieces together when he has more visions in Winds. 

The mention of dreams reminded him. "I dreamed about the crow again last night. The one with three eyes. He flew into my bedchamber and told me to come with him, so I did. We went down to the crypts. Father was there, and we talked. He was sad."

"And why was that?" Luwin peered through his tube.

"It was something to do about Jon, I think." The dream had been deeply disturbing, more so than any of the other crow dreams. (Bran VII in Thrones) 

I had to leave the last part alone because it's just so nice to read and in your common fashion, so well tied together.    I actually responded to most of this last night and pulled a GRRM and deleted everything.    Good thing no one was waiting for anything important.   This idea that Lyanna died almost the minute Ned walked in is high fantasy.   They had to have had more time together.   I envision maybe half a day wherein Lyanna can answer questions, explain her actions and the importance of what she did.   There is more at play in the whole TOJ scenario than I'm sure we know--like maybe how Ned and Howland were able to dissemble it and make cairns for all the dead.    There is so much to this and though it makes marvelous mystery, I would like some answers.   GRRM does that every now and then, answer questions about the series in interviews--things you can't find in the books.  Maybe we will never know all of it.   Another really excellent reply, Dame.      

[dornishdame]

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I read that theory with utter fascination.   I am hoping that like the reason for A Stark Must Always Be In Winterfell we will learn what those runes on the Royce sigil mean.  Don't they also own a suit of armor that dates back to the Andal invasion that also sports these runes? 

I'm not entirely sure about the armor - I would have to double check the text. I would love to know what the Royce runes mean, but I am not entirely sure we will find out in story. I wonder if at least part of the meaning behind the runes has been forgotten in the same way that the Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose. Don't get me wrong, I think that the Royces remember enough to send men north to the Watch. I'm just not convinced entirely that they remember enough to understand the meaning of the runes on their sigil. 

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I just reread Arienne Martell I during some down time at work today and was struck by how bad she really thinks Darkstar is.  Could he also be a potential threat?   Stannis is such a tragedy.  What other battles could there be in the North after the battle of ice?  I could be only thinking small here, but no one actually likes the Boltons?  Once the scandal with Jon comes to light I suppose there could be some sort of vigilante attack on the Neck (Bowen Marsh's folks maybe) but I can't see Stannis going that route when he has so much to do.   

I have to admit that I love reading Darkstar. He is unpredictable, rash, and seems to have some sort of inferiority complex - as the quote below implies - but he is a compelling character to read. 

"My House goes back ten thousand years, unto the dawn of days," he complained. "Why is it that my cousin is the only Dayne that anyone remembers?" (The Queenmaker in Feast).

Is he dangerous? Yes. Discussing him makes me think of a completely unrelated Jon quote:

"Tormund Giantsbane seemed to me the sort of man who would make a good friend and a bad enemy, Your Grace." (Jon XI in Storm)

To me, Darkstar seems to be just that; a terrible enemy but a good ally. The danger he poses depends whether or not you are on his side. I think he was the someone that always tells, and informed Doran about Arianne's plans. Note that Darkstar escapes, while Arys Oakheart is killed in the fallout and the rest of Arianne's loyal band are essentially sent into exile. I think Balon Swann is walking into a Darkstar-sized trap organized by Doran. I am looking forward to Hotah's POV in Winds to see what happens if and when Darkstar is tracked down, and to seeing how that meeting impacts on the wider story. How will Cersei react, for example, if Balon Swann meets the same end as Arys Oakheart? 

Stannis, I agree, is a walking tragedy. The man with the best blood claim, a seasoned battle commander, and both morally upstanding and in favor of meritocracy (see his raising of Davos of Flea Bottom to a Lordship for his good counsel) - and yet, he lacks support. Few see him as their King, rightful or otherwise. As for battles post that of Winterfell, we have to remember that many of the northerners currently supporting Stannis are doing so to rid the North of the Boltons and to avenge the Red Wedding and fArya's forced wedding. Once that is done, and Stannis has sacrificed people - then it may be a different situation. 

As for vengeance for Jon.......we cannot know how quickly word will travel about what has happened. Yes, it happened in the open, but we cannot predict how quickly the North will hear of it. With Jon being Ned Stark's blood, I think some may want to keep it as quiet as possible. And much may depend on how Stannis deals with it. 

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Agreed to initially.   We've speculated that Jon will rise more wolfish and dangerous.    Shouldn't we expect his outlook to change with that?  I think Jon will always love and be loyal to Ned, still coming into the knowledge of his true lineage will have to play into his arc.   At some point I think he will have to embrace his dragonness.   

I think that once Jon understands what happened between Lyanna and Rhaegar and comes to terms with why Ned lied to him for so many years, then there will be some level of acceptance as to who he truly is. But the initial reaction will be anger (more so because of the increased wolfishness I believe he will possess after existing inside Ghost's consciousness) and hurt and hate. Before Jon can accept Rhaegar fathering him, he first has to understand Rhaegar and to connect with him. This is where I think the parallels between Rhaegar/Lyanna and Jon/Ygritte will come into play. As I think I have said before, I think the first time Rhaegar and Lyanna met parallels with Jon and Ygritte's, and there is also the sense of conflict........Elia and Lyanna for Rhaegar and the Night's Watch and Ygritte for Jon. Once Jon understands these, it will be slightly easier for him to deal with his parentage. But, ultimately, I think that in his heart of hearts, Jon will always consider Ned Stark his true father. 

His dragonness........I suppose to an extent it is possible to argue that his increased wolfishness and the anger etc that involves could be considered a parallel to 'waking the dragon'. Ironic that in engaging with the symbol of one parent he could be considered as embracing with the symbol of his other parent.  

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

 I had to think about that and I have to tell you I think you could be dead on with this train of thought.   If Jon ever learns the whole truth he may also come to see the love in complete opposites in exactly the same manner he grew to love Ygritte.   This was a really nice catch Dame.

I should add that, in a way, I think Jon's love for Ygritte and Rhaegar's for Lyanna stem in part from the fact that Ygritte and Lyanna are unlike any woman they have ever met. While Jon compares Ygritte to Arya at times, he also repeatedly thinks of her as being 'wildling to the bone'. She is, in so many ways, unlike any girl he encountered at Winterfell. Similarly, Rhaegar was raised at Court, where women were well-bred ladies or obedient servants. And then he meets Lyanna.......probably as she hides evidence of her participation in a tourney. And while we see Jon's introverted personality as like that of Ned, it is also reminiscent of Rhaegar. Jon is more like Rhaegar than he realizes. 

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I think the best I can hope for with Barristan is some mention to Dany about this other woman her brother fell for.  It would be curious for Barristan not to know a whole lot more of the backstory between Lyanna and Rhaegar.    That hope is looking very doubtful as I don't expect Dany and Ser Grampa will ever meet again.   That said, I'm hoping for the real Ashara Dayne herself to show up and spill her guts.  

While I would love to meet Ashara on page, I think she did fall from the Palestone Sword at Starfall in a midst of grief and post-partum depression. Ashara is a tragic figure, as much as Stannis is, and such figures will normally ultimately meet their end in a similarly tragic way. I think Barristan is sometimes caught between wanting to educate Daenerys about her family and wanting to avoid causing her even more pain. He pulls back at times when talking about the nastier side of Aerys and his madness. If he does speak of Rhaegar then it may be to counsel her about Daario. We do have this from Barristan's POV:

Daenerys Targaryen loved her captain, but that was the girl in her, not the queen. Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna, and thousands died for it. Daemon Blackfyre loved the first Daenerys, and rose in rebellion when denied her. Bittersteel and Bloodraven both loved Shiera Seastar, and the Seven Kingdoms bled. The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses. All three of the sons of the fifth Aegon had wed for love, in defiance of their father's wishes. And because that unlikely monarch had himself followed his heart when he chose his queen, he allowed his sons to have their way, making bitter enemies where he might have had fast friends. Treason and turmoil followed, as night follows day, ending at Summerhall in sorcery, fire, and grief.

Her love for Daario is poison. A slower poison than the locusts, but in the end as deadly. (The Kingbreaker in Dance)

Barristan also thinks that while he was a Kingsguard, he was not in Rhaegar's inner circle:

The Red Keep had its secrets too. Even Rhaegar. The Prince of Dragonstone had never trusted him as he had trusted Arthur Dayne. Harrenhal was proof of that. The year of the false spring. (The Kingbreaker in Dance)

As such, I think there is a limit to what he knew of Rhaegar and Lyanna's relationship and disappearance. But he would at least have known of the consequences of that relationship (Jon aside) in terms of how it tore the realm apart. I too am not sure if Daenerys will see Barristan again. I think he will survive the Battle of Fire only to be killed for political reasons. 

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I keep coming back and reading all this over and over.    And yes, Jon being Rhaegar's son would have been enough for Robert for Ned to hold his secret--even from Jon.   So much is lost in keeping this vow and you make mention of several vows.   Perhaps Ned didn't know TPTWP prophesy.  Then again, why wouldn't Lyanna have told him? 

Of course, we don't know if Lyanna herself knew of the prophecy and Rhaegar's thoughts on it. After all, Daenerys's vision in the House of the Undying seems to suggest that Rhaegar believed his son Aegon to be the Prince that was Promised. 

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?"

"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way. (Daenerys IV in Clash)

Personally, I think if Rhaegar believed that the dragon must have three heads, he looked only for a third child - not the Prince that was Promised. As such, he may never have mentioned the prophecy to Lyanna. I think most readers see Rhaegar as obsessed with this prophecy, but we cannot know for sure (and may never do) if he ever mentioned it to Lyanna. When Rhaegar left Lyanna to return to King's Landing, Aegon was still very much alive. Rhaegar died before his son, and so until his death may very well have continued to think of him as TPTWP. We interpret the song of ice and fire element of his speech as meaning a child that was a product of union of fire blood (Valyrian) and ice blood (descended from the Kings of Winter) but so much of that is retrospect. Until we have more information, we cannot know for sure how much of this prophecy Lyanna knew - if anything. And even if she did know, I think that a desire to protect her child would have taken precedence over a prophecy when speaking to Ned. Ned didn't need to know that - all I think he really needed to know was that the child was her son and Rhaegar's son.......and that alone made him a target. He was an innocent child (of Ned's own blood no less) and that was the only reason Ned needed to protect him. 

While Robert seems to prefer living in feigned ignorance and ignoring things he doesn't wish to confront, I do not believe he would allow Rhaegar's son - a living reminder of Lyanna and Rhaegar cuckolding him - to live. 

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I'm quite sure we aren't done with Gendry by a long shot--or Sandor Clegane or Ned Dayne as far as all that goes.   Gendry has a lot going on in his story:  Curiosity for what Brienne wanted to tell him when she was so brutally attacked.  I wouldn't be surprised if he actually ends up helping our Lady of Tarth when we see her next.    His position as both a knight and smith play into more than 2 plots and though I can't actually get him to a sword I do expect him to figure prominently in the arranging of the quest.   My sword preoccupation prevents me from even wanting OK & WW reforged back into Ice, but I think Gendry will be able to identify VS at an unexpected time.   His role as a knight in the place he is, with orphaned children, screams his desire to protect.  Why not protect Arya?   He's angry, not bad by any stretch of the imagination.   

I look forward to seeing all three in Winds and to seeing the impact they have on the story. All three were last seen in the Riverlands, which I think will be a scene of a lot of the action in Winds. As we have discussed, I think it the most likely place Arya will end up.......and all three have both seen her since she fled King's Landing and know who she is. And I think all three would want to protect her. Sandor and Gendry already have, and Edric Dayne acknowledged there was a link between their families. He subscribed to the Beric Dondarrion BwB, not the Lady Stoneheart version. 

Gendry's skill as a smith, I think, may come into play. I would love to see Ice reforged and given to a Stark, but at the moment I don't see it happening. I do, however, see Gendry as being the source of the weaponry required for the mass murder of the Freys I think will take place at Daven Lannister's wedding. I have just had an interesting thought - will Lady Stoneheart's gang use Jaime to gain access to the wedding itself? Hmm, that requires more thought. I had always seen him going north to protect Rhaegar's last child as redemption for not protecting Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, but this may be an option too. 

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I had to leave the last part alone because it's just so nice to read and in your common fashion, so well tied together.    I actually responded to most of this last night and pulled a GRRM and deleted everything.    Good thing no one was waiting for anything important.   This idea that Lyanna died almost the minute Ned walked in is high fantasy.   They had to have had more time together.   I envision maybe half a day wherein Lyanna can answer questions, explain her actions and the importance of what she did.   There is more at play in the whole TOJ scenario than I'm sure we know--like maybe how Ned and Howland were able to dissemble it and make cairns for all the dead.    There is so much to this and though it makes marvelous mystery, I would like some answers.   GRRM does that every now and then, answer questions about the series in interviews--things you can't find in the books.  Maybe we will never know all of it.   Another really excellent reply, Dame.      

I don't think she died the moment he arrived either. While I don't think they had as long as half a day, I think that they had perhaps an hour or two. Maybe more. Though I do not believe Lyanna was capable of talking for all of it. I think more that she used all the strength that remained to her to ensure the future safety of her son. I agree that it is unlikely we will find out in detail in the books what happened - though I think Howland will be able to give us a good overview. While Ned may have lay in the black cells thinking of unfulfilled promises, I think that ultimately he did as Lyanna asked - he protected her son as best he could. And did so to the detriment of even his own marriage. 

Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. (Eddard II in Thrones)

And later...........when he meets Robert's infant daughter Barra:

"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them. (Eddard IX in Thrones)

Ned knows there is a cost to keeping the promises he made to Lyanna - and he is willing to pay that cost no matter the price. I wonder if part of him felt guilty. Guilty that he hadn't kept a closer eye on her at Harrenhal. A sense that had he not spent the evening of the feast eyeing up Ashara Dayne, then he may have noticed what Lyanna was up to. And stopped her plotting to enter the tourney. 

[bemused]

Curled finger.. Remember, you asked for it..  .. I'm bringing this here, out of left field , because it goes way OT on the Lady Stoneheart thread.. In that thread, you had said, re: Jon and release from his oath ..

Quote

This talk of a perfectly logical way to release him has piqued my interest.   Any idea how this might occur?   If the troops assembled at Winterfell are any real indication, there aren't 100 men of fighting age left to trade.   A faction of the NW has been trying to get rid of Jon since he arrived.  Any chance they can just boot him out since he hasn't actually deserted?   In truth, the NW was the best place for Jon to learn about protecting the realm while gaining experience with separatist ideals.  He's already taken huge steps to unify the NW.  I've been over the NW vows and can't find anything other than "death" as an out.   Maybe you've spotted something else with potential?  If Jon's wolf blood is up and he just tells them they're all a bunch of idiots with no idea what they are protecting or fighting for and has enough support for these ideas, can he just proclaim the NW fraudulent or derelict in duty and walk away with the masses?  

 I think there's probably a combination of things that will come into play (in typical GRRM fashion)... and my bet would be that they're most unlikely to come together neatly, all at once.

1) For whatever reason, Robb clearly thought there was at least one precedent, involving an exchange of men ( e.g., Perhaps he's aware of it because it involved another Stark - accounting for why he might be aware of it without it being widely known, generally..???) ... Whatever it was, it may be recorded in the (missing? suppressed?) annals of the NW... probably long ago.

2) I don't think it's at all certain that the north couldn't raise 100 men - if that's what it took (but I wouldn't bet on that exact figure being the important part). There are quite a few northmen with Stannis. He writes to Jon.. "We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day." (IIRC, he left CB with 1500 )... and in White Harbour, Davos hears that Robbett Glover has been trying to raise men to take back Deepwood Motte with little success, which I think is misdirection. I think he's been raising men with good success in order to retake Winterfell , in concert with other Northern Houses (numbers unkown)... Aside: I think this involves travelling up the White Knife, in through the secret passage (with HM Benjen's help) and surprising Roose from within... Anyway, if the solution is just a matter of men, that could probably be met.

3) I imagine the original NW vow will eventually be discovered.. (maybe by Sam?) .. or already known (maybe by Marwyn? Certainly by Bloodraven..) and that restrictions now included in the oath, will be absent in the original (e.g.wives, children and who knows what else ?)

4) I think the oldest part of the oath (not added to assuage the fears of Kings or Lords) will be ..

Quote

"I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers. I am the shield that guards the realms of men.I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night and all the nights to come."

..and maybe the opening as well.. "Night gathers, and now my watch begins." I'm very iffy on "It shall not end until my death" -  Surely, "I pledge my life" and "for this night and all the nights to come" implies the same thing, so one of those is redundant...(but OK, both could have been included as reinforcement).. 

However, "I am the watcher on the walls" has always stood out to me. Why the plural, walls ...  when there is only one Wall ?.. It's not a mistake, since it's repeated many times throughout the books... To me, it says that a NW brother could be in many places, and still remain true to his sworn vow to be - the sword, the watcher,etc., etc. - the shield that guards the realms of men. (e.g.,  Why could he not continue to be the sword, watcher, fire, light, horn, shield .. from the walls of Winterfell?)
I think it's quite possible that Jon doesn't need to be released from his oath. Possibly (and only possibly), he may need release from his office of LC, at this particular juncture.

Then there are what I consider to be the secondary parts of the oath .. "I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post." .. I think these are afterthoughts, political additions made to satisy rumblings from the Seven (or more) Kingdoms ... added in reaction to specific events we may or may not know of, such as - the commanders of two NW forts going to war with each other, or the LC who wanted to leave his position and castle to his son.. or the NK, or other cases we haven't learned of yet. ..(And here, the oath extracts yet a third promise to "live and die at my post". This is really flogging a dead horse, and I wonder if the repetitions didn't creep in as the ratio of prisoners vs. recruits began to increase dramatically.)

Oaths, like laws, can be changed to reflect the times, but that can't be done just willy-nilly, however-you-please, if magic is involved. The magic needs to be retained , but any non-magic additions that have been made over the centuries (but are now impractical) ought to be able to be cut without weakening the magic.

We know magic is reflected or acknowledged in the oath because of the Black Gate...

Quote

"It was white weirwood, and there was a face on it. A glow came from the wood, like milk and moonlight, so faint it scarcely seemed to touch anything beyond the door itself, ".. .. "The door opened its eyes. They were white too, and blind." .. .. "The door’s upper lip brushed softly against the top of Bran’s head, and a drop of water fell on him and ran slowly down his nose. It was strangely warm, and salty as a tear." ..(ASoS)

 

Sam's response to the gate's.. "Who are you? " begins at "I am the sword" .. continuing through to .. "the shield that guards the realms of men" .... "Then pass," says the gate, without bothering to ask if Sam has a wife, or children, and so on.. In fact, Sam has won a bit of glory as Sam the slayer.. but the magic simply doesn't care about that sort of thing.

Though the gate is blind, it seems to be able to read what is in a person's heart, what is at their core... and I don't think this applies only to followers of the old gods, or only men who have sworn before a heart tree, since it seems to respond sympathetically to Bran and his torn feelings, as he passes through.

I feel the Black Gate is connected to other questions about weirwoods that are no longer growing, and how connected they may remain to the "weirnet", like the stumps in various scenes, the roots in the hollow hill, the Blackwood heart tree, the one in the Citadel (beset by a vine the colour of "the strangler")

Quote

Jon said, “My lord father believed no man could tell a lie in front of a heart tree. The old gods know when men are lying.” 
“My father believed the same,” said the Old Bear. ...(ACoK)

This may extend beyond a situation when someone is being questioned.. e.g. Theon trying to explain himself in the WF godswood, or Thoren Smallwood in that ACoK scene with Jon and Mormont at the heart tree, when without being asked, he spontaneously volunteers...
“Look at that face. Small wonder men feared them, when they first came to Westeros. I’d like to take an axe to the bloody thing myself.” 
... If the belief is shared by the wildlings, it may have helped Jon in reducing tensions with the wildlings at the weirwood grove.

5) The magic in the Wall and in Winterfell both seem to want/need a Stark in control. The Starks currently have 2 adult male leaders, battle-tested and capable of command, both sworn to the NW. Jon is LC, Benjen probably would have been LC if he had been at the Wall at the time of the choosing. Both are fighters and have command and administrative experience, Jon recently, at CB, Benjen as first ranger, and as the Stark in WF during Robert's rebellion. Jon is a warg , Ben is not... This may be a very important difference.
 There are a number of choices open to GRRM as to how best to place these characters, and what he has decided the magic desires of them. There could be more than one switcheroo ahead, before all is said and done.

Of course, I have been convinced for some time that Benjen is in WF (but I know that others will disagree)  .. If you want to know why, sometime ...

With the overall political scene likely to become more chaotic before we see some semblance of order, I think all of the political components of the NW oath will simply be discarded (at least for the present), while the magical components will take preeminence (and be reinvigorated).

For example, I think that the Free Folk swearing to temporarily man the wall until spring - sworn directly to Jon, personally - has a magical value equal to the oath sworn by the NW. Jon, unknowingly, is an innate extension of the magic. For some of those swearing to Jon, their oath will end with their deaths, but others may survive and be released from their oath in the spring.

I see one hint at this (among others) when Jon visits Cregan Karstark in his ice cell ... "Jon Snow could see his own reflection dimly inside the icy walls"... (ADWD)

This is another one of those important word usage differences, I suspect. Why not write, "reflection in the icy walls"? ..That's the way we would say it, or think about it. We don't say, "I'm reflected inside the mirror" , but "in the mirror". To use "inside" implies, to me, that something of Jon, or identical to Jon, is actually inside the Wall..or, the same magic that is inside the wall is inside Jon ... but it's only "dimly" visible.
There are echoes of this idea  found partly in Jon's thoughts during his discussion with Bedwyck (Giant) ...

Quote

It was true that climbers were desperately vulnerable whilst on the ascent. Stones and spears and pots of burning pitch could be rained down on them from above, and all they could do was cling desperately to the ice. Sometimes the Wall itself seemed to shake them off, as a dog might shake off fleas. Jon had seen that for himself, when a sheet of ice cracked beneath Val’s lover Jarl, sending him to his death. ..(ADWD)

...and partly in this exchange with Val...

Quote

 

“Before I go, one question. Did you kill Jarl, my lord?”
“The Wall killed Jarl.”
“So I’d heard. But I had to be sure.”
“You have my word. I did not kill him.” Though I might have if things had gone otherwise.

 

Jarl has been presented to us as both Val's and Mance's pet - in other words , both of them had put faith in Jarl, or identified him as a potential future leader. (I think it's misleading to only see him as Val's lover, and it's probable that Mance was grooming him for leadership - a la the NW model) If Jarl had lived, he might have been vying with Jon as the leader the Free Folk would follow, if anything happened to Mance. This might have been disastrous for Jon's efforts to get the wall manned.  I think the magic in the wall was having none of that.

Jon himself has a sense that he might have had to kill Jarl in some other scenario.. the Wall is not hampered by Jon's lack of understanding and was simply being preemptive. 

So , to summarise, it's not that I see one specific way to release Jon. I'm sure that as GRRM said back in 2001, and as the way he wrote Robb and Cat's conversation implies, there is a precedent that would satisfy the political requirements, though we don't yet know what it is.. But when it comes down to adhering to political tradition vs. survival, surely survival must come first. The magic doesn't care about political details. Even bringing the political rationale down to the local level, presently... how will it be practical, or morally/ethically defensible to say to the vastly outnumbered NW brothers ... you are denied the human warmth and solace of wives, lovers, children , but all these men fighting beside you are not similarly denied? It will never work. I think the oath must be changed, but they desperately need to know how, without degrading the magic. 

If anyone can get an intuitive sense of this, unless and until the original oath is uncovered, it's Jon. He probably already has done so (in the most basic way) in identifying guarding the realms of men as being of prime importance. Not only do I doubt he needs release from his oath; not only do I think that his personal ideals and ethics would remain unchanged, anyway ... but I think on the magic level, release is impossible. He is intellectually and emotionally committed to guarding the realms of men and through his blood, he and the magic in the wall reflect each other.

I have some further thoughts (pro and con) about the possible positioning of Starks and related questions and few comments I wanted to make in reply to recent posts, here, but I feel I've gone on long enough, for now.

[Curled Finger]

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2016 at 0:29 AM, bemused said:

Curled finger.. Remember, you asked for it..  .. I'm bringing this here, out of left field , because it goes way OT on the Lady Stoneheart thread.. In that thread, you had said, re: Jon and release from his oath ..

 I think there's probably a combination of things that will come into play (in typical GRRM fashion)... and my bet would be that they're most unlikely to come together neatly, all at once.

1) For whatever reason, Robb clearly thought there was at least one precedent, involving an exchange of men ( e.g., Perhaps he's aware of it because it involved another Stark - accounting for why he might be aware of it without it being widely known, generally..???) ... Whatever it was, it may be recorded in the (missing? suppressed?) annals of the NW... probably long ago.

2) I don't think it's at all certain that the north couldn't raise 100 men - if that's what it took (but I wouldn't bet on that exact figure being the important part). There are quite a few northmen with Stannis. He writes to Jon.. "We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day." (IIRC, he left CB with 1500 )... and in White Harbour, Davos hears that Robbett Glover has been trying to raise men to take back Deepwood Motte with little success, which I think is misdirection. I think he's been raising men with good success in order to retake Winterfell , in concert with other Northern Houses (numbers unkown)... Aside: I think this involves travelling up the White Knife, in through the secret passage (with HM Benjen's help) and surprising Roose from within... Anyway, if the solution is just a matter of men, that could probably be met.

3) I imagine the original NW vow will eventually be discovered.. (maybe by Sam?) .. or already known (maybe by Marwyn? Certainly by Bloodraven..) and that restrictions now included in the oath, will be absent in the original (e.g.wives, children and who knows what else ?)

4) I think the oldest part of the oath (not added to assuage the fears of Kings or Lords) will be ..

..and maybe the opening as well.. "Night gathers, and now my watch begins." I'm very iffy on "It shall not end until my death" -  Surely, "I pledge my life" and "for this night and all the nights to come" implies the same thing, so one of those is redundant...(but OK, both could have been included as reinforcement).. 

However, "I am the watcher on the walls" has always stood out to me. Why the plural, walls ...  when there is only one Wall ?.. It's not a mistake, since it's repeated many times throughout the books... To me, it says that a NW brother could be in many places, and still remain true to his sworn vow to be - the sword, the watcher,etc., etc. - the shield that guards the realms of men. (e.g.,  Why could he not continue to be the sword, watcher, fire, light, horn, shield .. from the walls of Winterfell?)
I think it's quite possible that Jon doesn't need to be released from his oath. Possibly (and only possibly), he may need release from his office of LC, at this particular juncture.

Then there are what I consider to be the secondary parts of the oath .. "I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post." .. I think these are afterthoughts, political additions made to satisy rumblings from the Seven (or more) Kingdoms ... added in reaction to specific events we may or may not know of, such as - the commanders of two NW forts going to war with each other, or the LC who wanted to leave his position and castle to his son.. or the NK, or other cases we haven't learned of yet. ..(And here, the oath extracts yet a third promise to "live and die at my post". This is really flogging a dead horse, and I wonder if the repetitions didn't creep in as the ratio of prisoners vs. recruits began to increase dramatically.)

Oaths, like laws, can be changed to reflect the times, but that can't be done just willy-nilly, however-you-please, if magic is involved. The magic needs to be retained , but any non-magic additions that have been made over the centuries (but are now impractical) ought to be able to be cut without weakening the magic.

We know magic is reflected or acknowledged in the oath because of the Black Gate...

 

Sam's response to the gate's.. "Who are you? " begins at "I am the sword" .. continuing through to .. "the shield that guards the realms of men" .... "Then pass," says the gate, without bothering to ask if Sam has a wife, or children, and so on.. In fact, Sam has won a bit of glory as Sam the slayer.. but the magic simply doesn't care about that sort of thing.

Though the gate is blind, it seems to be able to read what is in a person's heart, what is at their core... and I don't think this applies only to followers of the old gods, or only men who have sworn before a heart tree, since it seems to respond sympathetically to Bran and his torn feelings, as he passes through.

I feel the Black Gate is connected to other questions about weirwoods that are no longer growing, and how connected they may remain to the "weirnet", like the stumps in various scenes, the roots in the hollow hill, the Blackwood heart tree, the one in the Citadel (beset by a vine the colour of "the strangler")

This may extend beyond a situation when someone is being questioned.. e.g. Theon trying to explain himself in the WF godswood, or Thoren Smallwood in that ACoK scene with Jon and Mormont at the heart tree, when without being asked, he spontaneously volunteers...
“Look at that face. Small wonder men feared them, when they first came to Westeros. I’d like to take an axe to the bloody thing myself.” 
... If the belief is shared by the wildlings, it may have helped Jon in reducing tensions with the wildlings at the weirwood grove.

5) The magic in the Wall and in Winterfell both seem to want/need a Stark in control. The Starks currently have 2 adult male leaders, battle-tested and capable of command, both sworn to the NW. Jon is LC, Benjen probably would have been LC if he had been at the Wall at the time of the choosing. Both are fighters and have command and administrative experience, Jon recently, at CB, Benjen as first ranger, and as the Stark in WF during Robert's rebellion. Jon is a warg , Ben is not... This may be a very important difference.
 There are a number of choices open to GRRM as to how best to place these characters, and what he has decided the magic desires of them. There could be more than one switcheroo ahead, before all is said and done.

Of course, I have been convinced for some time that Benjen is in WF (but I know that others will disagree)  .. If you want to know why, sometime ...

With the overall political scene likely to become more chaotic before we see some semblance of order, I think all of the political components of the NW oath will simply be discarded (at least for the present), while the magical components will take preeminence (and be reinvigorated).

For example, I think that the Free Folk swearing to temporarily man the wall until spring - sworn directly to Jon, personally - has a magical value equal to the oath sworn by the NW. Jon, unknowingly, is an innate extension of the magic. For some of those swearing to Jon, their oath will end with their deaths, but others may survive and be released from their oath in the spring.

I see one hint at this (among others) when Jon visits Cregan Karstark in his ice cell ... "Jon Snow could see his own reflection dimly inside the icy walls"... (ADWD)

This is another one of those important word usage differences, I suspect. Why not write, "reflection in the icy walls"? ..That's the way we would say it, or think about it. We don't say, "I'm reflected inside the mirror" , but "in the mirror". To use "inside" implies, to me, that something of Jon, or identical to Jon, is actually inside the Wall..or, the same magic that is inside the wall is inside Jon ... but it's only "dimly" visible.
There are echoes of this idea  found partly in Jon's thoughts during his discussion with Bedwyck (Giant) ...

...and partly in this exchange with Val...

Jarl has been presented to us as both Val's and Mance's pet - in other words , both of them had put faith in Jarl, or identified him as a potential future leader. (I think it's misleading to only see him as Val's lover, and it's probable that Mance was grooming him for leadership - a la the NW model) If Jarl had lived, he might have been vying with Jon as the leader the Free Folk would follow, if anything happened to Mance. This might have been disastrous for Jon's efforts to get the wall manned.  I think the magic in the wall was having none of that.

Jon himself has a sense that he might have had to kill Jarl in some other scenario.. the Wall is not hampered by Jon's lack of understanding and was simply being preemptive. 

So , to summarise, it's not that I see one specific way to release Jon. I'm sure that as GRRM said back in 2001, and as the way he wrote Robb and Cat's conversation implies, there is a precedent that would satisfy the political requirements, though we don't yet know what it is.. But when it comes down to adhering to political tradition vs. survival, surely survival must come first. The magic doesn't care about political details. Even bringing the political rationale down to the local level, presently... how will it be practical, or morally/ethically defensible to say to the vastly outnumbered NW brothers ... you are denied the human warmth and solace of wives, lovers, children , but all these men fighting beside you are not similarly denied? It will never work. I think the oath must be changed, but they desperately need to know how, without degrading the magic. 

If anyone can get an intuitive sense of this, unless and until the original oath is uncovered, it's Jon. He probably already has done so (in the most basic way) in identifying guarding the realms of men as being of prime importance. Not only do I doubt he needs release from his oath; not only do I think that his personal ideals and ethics would remain unchanged, anyway ... but I think on the magic level, release is impossible. He is intellectually and emotionally committed to guarding the realms of men and through his blood, he and the magic in the wall reflect each other.

I have some further thoughts (pro and con) about the possible positioning of Starks and related questions and few comments I wanted to make in reply to recent posts, here, but I feel I've gone on long enough, for now.

Ah bemused, thanks so much for bringing this in.   I've been looking for it!   We all know I have trouble with the quote features so I'll try to reply in chronological numerical order--see if that helps me not delete everything.   This is so rich...I'm sure out thoughtful Dame, being so much closer to your neck of the woods is bringing the good wine out for this...

1.  All this statement did was lead me immediately to "A Stark Must Always Be In Winterfell".   IIRC at the time of Robb's musing over the will and busting Jon out, Jon and Sansa were the last heirs left to Robb.   Perhaps that oft pondered statement is the reason for leaving the Watch that Robb was aware of--trade 100 men for a single Stark to fill the missing Stark at Winterfell.   That's just exciting.   I'd love to hear it if you think there is another possibility.  The 1:100 man ratio is interesting and has me wondering just how many houses there are in the North. 

2.  I stand corrected.   I will have to go back or rather look ahead (finishing up the last half of Dance this week) to recall who is traveling with Stannis and who is stuck in Winterfell with the Boltons.    Now that I think about it, the men at Winterfell are probably what I was thinking of in making the statement--Umbers green boys and old men.  Of course there are more, not to mention the forces Lady Dustin didn't supply to Robb.    You rekindle my hope!   Your Benjen = HM idea has always been interesting and well argued.  Anyone who hasn't had the opportunity to read your topic should do so as there is an education waiting therein.   Thanks for supplying the link.

3. I've long thought that the current NW vows are not the original vows--stands to reason that they would change over time to accommodate the mission of the NW.    It's been several thousands of years, for crying out loud.   You do a beautiful job of breaking each line down and I'm fascinated by the connection with the black gate.   Let's take it a step further and muse over what was omitted from the original vows!   Yes, a character such as Sam or Marwyn would be the likely person to discover the original statements...or Shireen even.   You list BR which took me to Maester Aemon at once, but I'm struggling with fire magic at the Wall these days with all the discussion of Blackwoods on the forum.   I once thought BR was all-knowing, now I'm not so sure.   My premise is that the ice magic would not embrace nor be enhanced by a representative of fire.  In that BR & MA lived such long lives I'm probably way off, but reason is screaming at me lately.   It's a much less complicated thing when I focus on balance.  

4.  As you say the statements are redundant.   These could just be stressors emphasizing a man's dedication.  Statement and affirmation of statement.   Ah, plural mention of walls--I love this--indicates to me that the NW wasn't always limited to the few places they currently reside (the walls at Winterfell is a brilliant connection).   That perhaps there was an outreach or recruiting band who travelled all over the realm, spreading the word of the threat that (sleeps, is restrained...) would come if X didn't happen or wasn't observed.    The original NW would know why they were really at the Wall.   As I imagine the older Wildlings would as well.  I'm listening very carefully to the northern clansmen for any sort of hint that they may understand any of the reasons for restoring the Starks to Winterfell.   No less than 2 of the clansmen sent wet nurses to Jon for Mance Rayder's baby at the first request from the NWLC.   These guys have to know what's up.   You make an obvious connection between the magics of the weirwoods, Winterfell and The Wall that my simple mind never put together.   Of course they are connected!    I'd really enjoy an elaboration on your idea that the black gate is integrated.   It's certain that it is, but as a gate at a wall, I'm thinking it serves some purpose other than simple entrance or exit.    Your indications that the black gate is conscious, can read a person's heart is encouraging on several levels.  

5.   Good points about both Jon and Benjen.   You do a really nice job explaining how the Wall is an entity separate from the NW.   In kind, your ideas about the Wildlings being sworn to Jon rather than the NW is something that has niggled at me forever and you provide a lovely explanation of the essence of their  presence.    Tying this loyalty to magic as opposed to politics is unsettling, but probably necessary in that the politics are circumvented thereby exposing the "fight" for its true purpose.    All this talk of magic and the Wall being conscious indicates to me that the weirwoods/gate/Wall will actually be able to judge each person involved in this fight against the Others for what they are.    Great, now I'm back on fire over my swords and companions.  

Summary:  Back in a bit to address the summary!   This is such good stuff bemused, again, thanks so much for bringing it up.  

 

[Curled Finger]

So , to summarise, it's not that I see one specific way to release Jon. I'm sure that as GRRM said back in 2001, and as the way he wrote Robb and Cat's conversation implies, there is a precedent that would satisfy the political requirements, though we don't yet know what it is.. But when it comes down to adhering to political tradition vs. survival, surely survival must come first. The magic doesn't care about political details. Even bringing the political rationale down to the local level, presently... how will it be practical, or morally/ethically defensible to say to the vastly outnumbered NW brothers ... you are denied the human warmth and solace of wives, lovers, children , but all these men fighting beside you are not similarly denied? It will never work. I think the oath must be changed, but they desperately need to know how, without degrading the magic. 

If anyone can get an intuitive sense of this, unless and until the original oath is uncovered, it's Jon. He probably already has done so (in the most basic way) in identifying guarding the realms of men as being of prime importance. Not only do I doubt he needs release from his oath; not only do I think that his personal ideals and ethics would remain unchanged, anyway ... but I think on the magic level, release is impossible. He is intellectually and emotionally committed to guarding the realms of men and through his blood, he and the magic in the wall reflect each other.

I have some further thoughts (pro and con) about the possible positioning of Starks and related questions and few comments I wanted to make in reply to recent posts, here, but I feel I've gone on long enough, for now.     

Man I love Sundays.   To your summary, bemused:

You make a very good argument on many levels for Jon's release from the NW vows for a myriad of possible reasons other than death.   ASOIAF is a fantasy and it's entirely possible that death is precisely the way Jon will be released.   However, Jon's honor is at stake here and death just seems too easy a release from him.   And I've never been convinced he would want to be released from his vows.  As you say, the magic doesn't care about political details and this, bemused, is where I think you are 100% correct.   I previously responded to the original post with a hypothetical scenario wherein Jon would simply tell the NW to bugger themselves and walk off.   This is foolish I know, but was offered in much the same vein as your indication that there is a possibility for Jon to change or restore  the vows.  He would understand everything a little better after whatever the change in front of him is.  These current improbable rules will not apply to Jon or this point in the history of Westeros.  The NW will have to change and I submit that because the Wildlings are so prominent along the Wall they may in fact have control of the Wall in the aftermath of Jon's er, incapacity.   The rules with change with the rulers...that is if in fact a forward change comes instead of a revealing of original vows.    I'm good with this either way. 

As to Jon's intuition...he seems so often determined to take the absolute most difficult route to any end.  In my mind there is a mingling of his love affair with Ygritte, respect for Ned, Mance Rayder and LC Mormont, determination to fight the Others, willingness to side with the weak and obey the strong.    I've seen Jon commit against his better judgement.  I have no doubt Jon will be able to identify the essence of the vows once they are clearly presented.  It's perfect the way you allow him the liberty to do what needs to be done without the restrictions so many readers place on him.    You've given this character, a hero, the avenue and permission to become the hero we all know he will be in excising the magic from political aspects of his serious vows.   

I did not have the full and encompassing understanding of the Wall as a conscious thing to put my own misgivings regarding the NW vows and Jon's restrictive duty/honor to them into a coherent train of thought.    Not only have you  illuminated this line of thinking in your own well written manner, but you've actually supported it comprehensively.  Your possibilities here are founded in text--and I'm pleased to know that a fellow reader of such creative imagination would encourage my thoughts here.  I will go back to one of the main reasons ASOIAF is so enthralling to me:  It is a different story to each reader.   Please, bring those further thoughts!   

 

[dornishdame]

On 3/5/2016 at 8:29 AM, bemused said:

Curled finger.. Remember, you asked for it..  .. I'm bringing this here, out of left field , because it goes way OT on the Lady Stoneheart thread.. In that thread, you had said, re: Jon and release from his oath ..

 I think there's probably a combination of things that will come into play (in typical GRRM fashion)... and my bet would be that they're most unlikely to come together neatly, all at once.

1) For whatever reason, Robb clearly thought there was at least one precedent, involving an exchange of men ( e.g., Perhaps he's aware of it because it involved another Stark - accounting for why he might be aware of it without it being widely known, generally..???) ... Whatever it was, it may be recorded in the (missing? suppressed?) annals of the NW... probably long ago.

2) I don't think it's at all certain that the north couldn't raise 100 men - if that's what it took (but I wouldn't bet on that exact figure being the important part). There are quite a few northmen with Stannis. He writes to Jon.. "We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day." (IIRC, he left CB with 1500 )... and in White Harbour, Davos hears that Robbett Glover has been trying to raise men to take back Deepwood Motte with little success, which I think is misdirection. I think he's been raising men with good success in order to retake Winterfell , in concert with other Northern Houses (numbers unkown)... Aside: I think this involves travelling up the White Knife, in through the secret passage (with HM Benjen's help) and surprising Roose from within... Anyway, if the solution is just a matter of men, that could probably be met.

3) I imagine the original NW vow will eventually be discovered.. (maybe by Sam?) .. or already known (maybe by Marwyn? Certainly by Bloodraven..) and that restrictions now included in the oath, will be absent in the original (e.g.wives, children and who knows what else ?)

4) I think the oldest part of the oath (not added to assuage the fears of Kings or Lords) will be ..

..and maybe the opening as well.. "Night gathers, and now my watch begins." I'm very iffy on "It shall not end until my death" -  Surely, "I pledge my life" and "for this night and all the nights to come" implies the same thing, so one of those is redundant...(but OK, both could have been included as reinforcement).. 

However, "I am the watcher on the walls" has always stood out to me. Why the plural, walls ...  when there is only one Wall ?.. It's not a mistake, since it's repeated many times throughout the books... To me, it says that a NW brother could be in many places, and still remain true to his sworn vow to be - the sword, the watcher,etc., etc. - the shield that guards the realms of men. (e.g.,  Why could he not continue to be the sword, watcher, fire, light, horn, shield .. from the walls of Winterfell?)
I think it's quite possible that Jon doesn't need to be released from his oath. Possibly (and only possibly), he may need release from his office of LC, at this particular juncture.

Then there are what I consider to be the secondary parts of the oath .. "I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post." .. I think these are afterthoughts, political additions made to satisy rumblings from the Seven (or more) Kingdoms ... added in reaction to specific events we may or may not know of, such as - the commanders of two NW forts going to war with each other, or the LC who wanted to leave his position and castle to his son.. or the NK, or other cases we haven't learned of yet. ..(And here, the oath extracts yet a third promise to "live and die at my post". This is really flogging a dead horse, and I wonder if the repetitions didn't creep in as the ratio of prisoners vs. recruits began to increase dramatically.)

Oaths, like laws, can be changed to reflect the times, but that can't be done just willy-nilly, however-you-please, if magic is involved. The magic needs to be retained , but any non-magic additions that have been made over the centuries (but are now impractical) ought to be able to be cut without weakening the magic.

We know magic is reflected or acknowledged in the oath because of the Black Gate...

 

Sam's response to the gate's.. "Who are you? " begins at "I am the sword" .. continuing through to .. "the shield that guards the realms of men" .... "Then pass," says the gate, without bothering to ask if Sam has a wife, or children, and so on.. In fact, Sam has won a bit of glory as Sam the slayer.. but the magic simply doesn't care about that sort of thing.

Though the gate is blind, it seems to be able to read what is in a person's heart, what is at their core... and I don't think this applies only to followers of the old gods, or only men who have sworn before a heart tree, since it seems to respond sympathetically to Bran and his torn feelings, as he passes through.

I feel the Black Gate is connected to other questions about weirwoods that are no longer growing, and how connected they may remain to the "weirnet", like the stumps in various scenes, the roots in the hollow hill, the Blackwood heart tree, the one in the Citadel (beset by a vine the colour of "the strangler")

This may extend beyond a situation when someone is being questioned.. e.g. Theon trying to explain himself in the WF godswood, or Thoren Smallwood in that ACoK scene with Jon and Mormont at the heart tree, when without being asked, he spontaneously volunteers...
“Look at that face. Small wonder men feared them, when they first came to Westeros. I’d like to take an axe to the bloody thing myself.” 
... If the belief is shared by the wildlings, it may have helped Jon in reducing tensions with the wildlings at the weirwood grove.

5) The magic in the Wall and in Winterfell both seem to want/need a Stark in control. The Starks currently have 2 adult male leaders, battle-tested and capable of command, both sworn to the NW. Jon is LC, Benjen probably would have been LC if he had been at the Wall at the time of the choosing. Both are fighters and have command and administrative experience, Jon recently, at CB, Benjen as first ranger, and as the Stark in WF during Robert's rebellion. Jon is a warg , Ben is not... This may be a very important difference.
 There are a number of choices open to GRRM as to how best to place these characters, and what he has decided the magic desires of them. There could be more than one switcheroo ahead, before all is said and done.

Of course, I have been convinced for some time that Benjen is in WF (but I know that others will disagree)  .. If you want to know why, sometime ...

With the overall political scene likely to become more chaotic before we see some semblance of order, I think all of the political components of the NW oath will simply be discarded (at least for the present), while the magical components will take preeminence (and be reinvigorated).

For example, I think that the Free Folk swearing to temporarily man the wall until spring - sworn directly to Jon, personally - has a magical value equal to the oath sworn by the NW. Jon, unknowingly, is an innate extension of the magic. For some of those swearing to Jon, their oath will end with their deaths, but others may survive and be released from their oath in the spring.

I see one hint at this (among others) when Jon visits Cregan Karstark in his ice cell ... "Jon Snow could see his own reflection dimly inside the icy walls"... (ADWD)

This is another one of those important word usage differences, I suspect. Why not write, "reflection in the icy walls"? ..That's the way we would say it, or think about it. We don't say, "I'm reflected inside the mirror" , but "in the mirror". To use "inside" implies, to me, that something of Jon, or identical to Jon, is actually inside the Wall..or, the same magic that is inside the wall is inside Jon ... but it's only "dimly" visible.
There are echoes of this idea  found partly in Jon's thoughts during his discussion with Bedwyck (Giant) ...

...and partly in this exchange with Val...

Jarl has been presented to us as both Val's and Mance's pet - in other words , both of them had put faith in Jarl, or identified him as a potential future leader. (I think it's misleading to only see him as Val's lover, and it's probable that Mance was grooming him for leadership - a la the NW model) If Jarl had lived, he might have been vying with Jon as the leader the Free Folk would follow, if anything happened to Mance. This might have been disastrous for Jon's efforts to get the wall manned.  I think the magic in the wall was having none of that.

Jon himself has a sense that he might have had to kill Jarl in some other scenario.. the Wall is not hampered by Jon's lack of understanding and was simply being preemptive. 

So , to summarise, it's not that I see one specific way to release Jon. I'm sure that as GRRM said back in 2001, and as the way he wrote Robb and Cat's conversation implies, there is a precedent that would satisfy the political requirements, though we don't yet know what it is.. But when it comes down to adhering to political tradition vs. survival, surely survival must come first. The magic doesn't care about political details. Even bringing the political rationale down to the local level, presently... how will it be practical, or morally/ethically defensible to say to the vastly outnumbered NW brothers ... you are denied the human warmth and solace of wives, lovers, children , but all these men fighting beside you are not similarly denied? It will never work. I think the oath must be changed, but they desperately need to know how, without degrading the magic. 

If anyone can get an intuitive sense of this, unless and until the original oath is uncovered, it's Jon. He probably already has done so (in the most basic way) in identifying guarding the realms of men as being of prime importance. Not only do I doubt he needs release from his oath; not only do I think that his personal ideals and ethics would remain unchanged, anyway ... but I think on the magic level, release is impossible. He is intellectually and emotionally committed to guarding the realms of men and through his blood, he and the magic in the wall reflect each other.

I have some further thoughts (pro and con) about the possible positioning of Starks and related questions and few comments I wanted to make in reply to recent posts, here, but I feel I've gone on long enough, for now.

First off, like Curled Finger I am excited to see the ideas expressed - ideas that will no doubt have a huge impact on how plot lines unfold and merge in Winds. 

I have long thought that the Night's Watch vow Jon and Sam recite in front of the weirwood tree when they join is not the original vow. From the scene in Storm when Bran passes through the Wall at the Nightfort, I think the words Sam recites to open the door comprise the original Night's Watch vow.

They were white too, and blind. "Who are you?" the door asked, and the well whispered, "Who-who-who-who-who-who-who."

"I am the sword in the darkness," Samwell Tarly said. "I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers. I am the shield that guards the realms of men."

"Then pass," the door said. Its lips opened, wide and wider and wider still, until nothing at all remained but a great gaping mouth in a ring of wrinkles. (Bran IV in Storm)

Bran tells us in the same chapter that he had once asked Benjen about the Nightfort and the stories of what had happened there; Benjen had apparently merely responded that the Night's Watch had been abandoned 200 years previously. Bran also tells us this, when Meera tries to climb the ice steps:

She wasn't really climbing, the way he used to climb. She was only walking up some steps that the Night's Watch had hewn hundreds and thousands of years ago. He remembered Maester Luwin saying the Nightfort was the only castle where the steps had been cut from the ice of the Wall itself. Or maybe it had been Uncle Benjen. The newer castles had wooden steps, or stone ones, or long ramps of earth and gravel. Ice is too treacherous. It was his uncle who'd told him that. He said that the outer surface of the Wall wept icy tears sometimes, though the core inside stayed frozen hard as rock. The steps must have melted and refrozen a thousand times since the last black brothers left the castle, and every time they did they shrunk a little and got smoother and rounder and more treacherous. (Bran IV in Storm)

Bran tells us lots of stories about the Nightfort in this particular chapter - don't worry, I won't quote them all!! - including that of the Night's King:

He brought her back to the Nightfort and proclaimed her a queen and himself her king, and with strange sorceries he bound his Sworn Brothers to his will. For thirteen years they had ruled, Night's King and his corpse queen, till finally the Stark of Winterfell and Joramun of the wildlings had joined to free the Watch from bondage. After his fall, when it was found he had been sacrificing to the Others, all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden. (Bran IV in Storm)

The fact that he brought her back to the Nightfort suggests that was his base. The Night's King was Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. The 13th Lord Commander. That would suggest that at that time, it was the Nightfort that was the seat of the Lord Commander in the same way as Castle Black is for Jeor Mormont and Jon Snow. The door that Bran passes through is likely the same one that men of the Nightfort passed through when departing on/returning from ranging missions. It is not a jump too far to assume that the passcode at that time was the Night's Watch vow. 

This is addressed in a manner of sorts by Stannis later in Storm:

"The Nightfort is the largest and oldest of the castles on the Wall," the king said. "That is where I intend to make my seat, whilst I fight this war. You will show me this gate."

"I," said Sam, "I w-will, if . . ." If it is still there. If it will open for a man not of the black. If . . .(Sam V in Storm)

The Nightfort goes back to at least the time of the 13th Lord Commander, the Night's King - and, Stannis tells us, was in fact the first castle to be built, which means that it makes sense for it to be the seat of the Lord Commander. I would hazard a guess that the door goes back that far and that the vow the door knows is the vow of that time. The vow that Sam must recite as a sworn brother of the Night's Watch to pass through. 

TWOIAF tells us:

Beneath the shadow of that wall of ice, the Night's Watch raised nineteen strongholds—though they are unlike any other castles in the Seven Kingdoms, for they have no curtain walls or other defensive fortifications to protect them (the Wall itself being more than ample against any threat coming from the north, and the Watch insists it has no foes to the south).

The greatest and oldest of these is the Nightfort, which has been abandoned for the past two hundred years; as the Watch shrunk, its size made it too large and too costly to maintain. Maesters who served at the Nightfort whilst it was still in use made it plain that the castle had been expanded upon many times over the centuries and that little remained of its original structure save for some of the deepest vaults chiseled out of the rock beneath the castle's feet.

I would guess that the door they pass through is either part or all of the original structure that remains. 

I could be off in my assumptions, but hopefully you can see from the above how I came to them! I have thought for a while that the mention of wives, lands etc may be as a result of the reign of the Night's King. That could explain why it is not included in the words Sam recites to the door - that section of the vow was not added until after the door and the magics that it uses. To me, it makes sense for the vow to evolve over time. As mistakes were made, and tyrants rose and fell, the vow could be tweaked slightly or substantially in an effort to prevent a repeat. 

As for Jon and his release from the Night's Watch, my thoughts on that relate to the vow he swears. I have always thought that the purpose of the Night's Watch is summed up in one line of the vow..........The shield that guards the realms of men. If we look at Lord Commander Mormont's discussion with Sam after the attack at the Fist of the First Men, that is a much better way of making my point!

"We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?" (Sam II in Storm)

4 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

You make a very good argument on many levels for Jon's release from the NW vows for a myriad of possible reasons other than death.   ASOIAF is a fantasy and it's entirely possible that death is precisely the way Jon will be released.   However, Jon's honor is at stake here and death just seems too easy a release from him.   And I've never been convinced he would want to be released from his vows.  As you say, the magic doesn't care about political details and this, bemused, is where I think you are 100% correct.   I previously responded to the original post with a hypothetical scenario wherein Jon would simply tell the NW to bugger themselves and walk off.   This is foolish I know, but was offered in much the same vein as your indication that there is a possibility for Jon to change or restore  the vows.  He would understand everything a little better after whatever the change in front of him is.  These current improbable rules will not apply to Jon or this point in the history of Westeros.  The NW will have to change and I submit that because the Wildlings are so prominent along the Wall they may in fact have control of the Wall in the aftermath of Jon's er, incapacity.   The rules with change with the rulers...that is if in fact a forward change comes instead of a revealing of original vows.    I'm good with this either way. 

I have bolded and underlined a section of your post. I think that if Jon could be made to realize that leaving the Night's Watch and rallying the North to fight the true enemy would be a continuation of - rather than a departure from - this vow, then he could depart honorably without death being the reason. It would not be an easy way out, and Jon would still demonstrably be The shield that guards the realms of men while retaining his honor. What it would come down to is Jon and how he thinks he could best carry out this vow he has sworn. 

As for Robb and his royal decrees, legitimization and releasing Jon from his Watch............

"Jon's more a Stark than some lordlings from the Vale who have never so much as set eyes on Winterfell."

"Jon is a brother of the Night's Watch, sworn to take no wife and hold no lands. Those who take the black serve for life."

"So do the knights of the Kingsguard. That did not stop the Lannisters from stripping the white cloaks from Ser Barristan Selmy and Ser Boros Blount when they had no more use for them. If I send the Watch a hundred men in Jon's place, I'll wager they find some way to release him from his vows."

He is set on this. Catelyn knew how stubborn her son could be. "A bastard cannot inherit."

"Not unless he's legitimized by a royal decree," said Robb. "There is more precedent for that than for releasing a Sworn Brother from his oath."

"Precedent," she said bitterly. "Yes, Aegon the Fourth legitimized all his bastards on his deathbed. And how much pain, grief, war, and murder grew from that? I know you trust Jon. But can you trust his sons? Or their sons? The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the Targaryens for five generations, until Barristan the Bold slew the last of them on the Stepstones. If you make Jon legitimate, there is no way to turn him bastard again. Should he wed and breed, any sons you may have by Jeyne will never be safe." (Catelyn V in Storm)

Even if there was no precedent for releasing a brother of the Night's Watch from his vows, as Robb has demonstrated precedents can easily be made. Should one exist - as I too think it does - it makes sense for a Stark to know about it. How many times are we told of the Stark in Winterfell involving himself in matters of the Night's Watch?! In the first few chapters of Thrones, we even have Ned speaking of the possibility of taking men north to deal with Mance, before Robert's arrival and offer of the Handship turns his attention southward. As to the existence of precedence, the fact Robb speaks of more precedence suggests that some do exist. But Catelyn focuses on legitimization and drags the conversation away from any precedent to the Blackfyre Rebellions. Her paranoia with regards to Jon prevents us from finding out more information!

It may have been a Stark or Northman that was released from their vows. Perhaps it was a similar circumstance - an heir was needed as the family in question was extinct in the male line? The suppressed annals may be a source of information - an alternative could be the Winterfell library or the scrolls Sam does not have time to peruse. We know from Tyrion that there were rare scrolls in the former, and that the scrolls Sam peruses go back hundreds, possibly thousands, of years. 

This discussion between Alys and Jon in Dance is illuminating in terms of the numbers and types of men Robb could have sent to the Watch:

"My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

It was a tale that any northmen knew well. "My father's grandmother was a Flint of the mountains, on his mother's side," Jon told her. "The First Flints, they call themselves. They say the other Flints are the blood of younger sons, who had to leave the mountains to find food and land and wives. It has always been a harsh life up there. When the snows fall and food grows scarce, their young must travel to the winter town or take service at one castle or the other. The old men gather up what strength remains in them and announce that they are going hunting. Some are found come spring. More are never seen again."

"It is much the same at Karhold."

That did not surprise him. "When your stores begin to dwindle, my lady, remember us. Send your old men to the Wall, let them say our words. Here at least they will not die alone in the snow, with only memories to warm them. Send us boys as well, if you have boys to spare."

"As you say." She touched his hand. "Karhold remembers." (Jon X in Dance)

This exchange suggests that throughout the North, there are potential Night's Watch recruits. Jon speaks to Alys about sending old men and spare young boys to the Wall to prevent them from relieving their families and liege lords of the burden they are. If we look at the green boys and old men that go to Winterfell with the Umbers, for example, then we find more of the same. Given the Northern attitude to winter that Jon outlines in his story of the Flints (and presumably other Clansmen) it could not have been too difficult for Robb to find a hundred men to replace Jon. They would likely not be fighting men, many of them, but it would not be difficult to locate a hundred men willing to relieve their families and liege lords of an added burden with winter approaching. 

Sidebar: we recently spoke of the Royces, and I noted when re-reading this section of text that Lady Alys says Karhold remembers. Perhaps that is an indication that the We Remember of House Royce relates to the Watch and the need to send men there? Or perhaps I am once again looking into this a bit too much!!

Looking back on what I have typed so far, I realize how much of it relates to Storm. We have read Feast and Dance since then, but these strands of plot remain important and will continue to be so in Winds. Robb's will has still to make its way north, and we will need to wait and see when news of it arrives at Castle Black (if it ever does).  Once again I seem to be back to saying that the unfolding of events will be dependent on when! 

Finally, to the Hooded Man in Winterfell - bemused, I have read your posts on the subject and your arguments for Benjen being the Hooded Man are compelling. Realistically, I think it can only be one of three people - Benjen himself, Hallis Mollen and Harwin. Theon clearly believes that the Hooded Man is someone he knows and believes to be dead and therefore does not, I feel, entirely believe them to be real. They are just one of the ghosts that haunt him. Benjen, Hal and Harwin all fit this description. And while Lady Stoneheart has a Northman with her when Brienne encounters her in Feast, he is unnamed. That said, thematically I feel that Benjen is an excellent candidate and if you twisted my arm and forced me to pick I might just pick him. The Stark in Winterfell concept has been repeatedly shoved down our throats since the first few chapters of book one. It means something. I believe the magics surrounding the black door may be similar to those in Winterfell. 

What is down in the lower levels of the crypts of Winterfell, and why are they in such disrepair? There are so many questions I have as to what magics Winterfell could hold!! But I definitely believe it is related to the concept of The Stark in Winterfell. 

[bemused]

Curled finger .. I'm glad you find this stuff worth thinking about.. Of course I can be wrong about any of it, but if I wind up with a bit of egg on my face ... well, to quote my mother, "There are worse misfortunes at sea".

Regarding Starks, KitN, the magic in the Wall and Winterfell... I have these nebulous feelings that although the LC hasn't always been a Stark, and doesn't always need to be, that when a long winter approaches, or in earlier times, closer to the Long Night (when men felt closer to magic), the magic's need/ desire for a Stark LC would become more urgent. This might be evidenced by the Stark boy LCs. I don't think there can be a purely rational explanation for electing a 10 yr old...and I'm sure a more experienced Stark would have been preferable, had one been available.

Winterfell itself may be a fall-back position or a fail-safe for the Wall. The Lord Commander and the King in the North / King of Winter carry the same banner, magically speaking. Even politically speaking, they have often, historically, served as back up to each other.

Supposing I'm right about Benjen and supposing Rickon survives.. The wall needs a Stark, WF needs a Stark, and Rickon would still need a regent or protector, who I think should also be a Stark, otherwise outside political influences could creep in, to the detriment of the magic. Rickon's very wolfish and being a warg must be a plus, but children are very much at risk during winter, and he has not been raised to command. He can continue the Stark line, eventually, if he survives, but what about in the meantime? ...The magic may not be motivated by politics, but men are ... and politically, the Stark name is still on very shaky ground with Rickon still a young child, Bran still young and unlikely to have children and Benjen and Jon (even if Robb has legitimised him as a Stark) sworn to the NW. Something, or a number of somethings have to give.

Either Jon or Benjen could fill that bill, depending on what happens with the NW oath and whether either of them could be/ needed to be released. But if Jon left, and BJ became LC what would happen with the wildlings who swore to Jon?

I think Jon's bond with the wildlings is extremely important, and I'll be surprised if that doesn't culminate in a marriage with Val, and children of his own ( though not necessarily a happily-ever-after ending).
 

I know you were joking about Jon just buggering off, but what if The King in the North became a separate entity (a sort-of Uber Stark)..with say, Rickon Lord of WF, Bran in his special spiritual/magical position, Benjen as LC and Jon as KitN? (Allowing for the magic of the wall not caring if someone calls it's man "king", so long as he's true to the magic.)...Would the wildlings then find much difference between folowing the King-beyond-the-wall and King-in-the-north? ..Especially if Jon eschews the pomp and trappings of Southron kings and doesn't demand a crown, kneeling or a hereditary succession.(For some of these, the magic may not care, but the Free Folk do) I'll stress again, these are nebulous ideas, and GRRM has tons of leeway.

Now jump to Jon's Targaryen blood and "the Dragon has three heads". Many are betting the 3 heads would be Dany, Jon and Tyrion, and I can see how that could work without upsetting some important apple carts.

Dany - Targaryen bloodline
Jon - Targaryen and Stark
Tyrion - Targaryen and Lannister (assuming he's not Tywin's son )
**Aside : I like the idea that none of Tywin's children are his and lean toward it, but I don't say that must be**

I don't think there has to be an actual marriage between any of them , except in the sense the Greatjon meant when he said "It was the Dragons we married"..just the equivalence of marriage with equal partners. (This would be another triarchy) .. Getting away from close incestuous ties seems a good idea, to me.

Further, in the interest of merging important bloodlines (and story arcs), who might they marry, then?
Jon + Val .. brings more first men blood to the equation
Tyrion + Sansa .. already married, though not consumated, brings in Tully, Whent and maybe Lothston, etc..
Dany + Daario  ..(yes, I said that)... Brings in Martell and unknown (maybe Blackfyre or Brightflame, healing one or more rifts).. Declaration : Not so nebulous - I think Daario is most probably Oberyn's son and as soon as I finish this post, I'm buggering off to finish composing Part II from my copious notes.

Curled Finger, you're no doubt way more up on sword lore than I am, but some random thoughts about the future companions (whatever their number), or just Jon's stalwarts at the wall (not necessarily his bosom buddies) .. Some may be there already... I think Satin is a Hightower bastard, and I think Mance is Qorgyll's bastard (and doesn't have an anti-Jon agenda) .. I think Theon may be sent to the wall and get onside (Asha may eventually serve as regent for Theon's son with the captain's daughter, meanwhile implementing her vision for the Ironborn).. I just feel Jaime (possibly a bastard) is eventually headed north ... whether sent, or following an inner prompting to expiate his crime against Bran. I would never have said so, following AGoT, but damnit ! ..I want him to have a chance to earn his place in history as "The Goldenhand" and I don't want anything to happen to his first named horse "Honor", either.. ( but I think he'll continue to be carried by his honour anyway..).. What about Brienne, (no doubt bearing Dunk's bastard bloodline)?.. I always thought Shireen was doomed and that Stannis might avenge her, then take the black (but maybe he'll die).. Davos might stay in the north, depending what happens to Stannis and Devan, and how he reacts (especially if Jon could arrange for Marya and the young ones to cross the narrow sea as Davos wished) He could represent the countless smallfolk... then, too, Gendry could easily wind up at the wall, bearing Baratheon blood (and the gods know an armourer is needed)... Edd is already there, and I'll be interested to see if we learn more about the Tolletts in TWoW.. (and the Royces for that matter)...

Running away, now.

dornishdame.. We are on the same page with The Black gate, oath and Nightfort ( informed by the same sources) Enjoyed your post immensly.

[bemused]

Sorry , double post.. computer froze for a moment.

[Curled Finger]

54 minutes ago, dornishdame said:

First off, like Curled Finger I am excited to see the ideas expressed - ideas that will no doubt have a huge impact on how plot lines unfold and merge in Winds.    bemused threatened to bring this over from another thread.   I've been looking for this for over a week.   It's such an interesting concept that the vows have been and may still yet be altered and the problem of Jon's honor and release from the NW vows.

I have long thought that the Night's Watch vow Jon and Sam recite in front of the weirwood tree when they join is not the original vow. From the scene in Storm when Bran passes through the Wall at the Nightfort, I think the words Sam recites to open the door comprise the original Night's Watch vow.

They were white too, and blind. "Who are you?" the door asked, and the well whispered, "Who-who-who-who-who-who-who."

"I am the sword in the darkness," Samwell Tarly said. "I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers. I am the shield that guards the realms of men."

"Then pass," the door said. Its lips opened, wide and wider and wider still, until nothing at all remained but a great gaping mouth in a ring of wrinkles. (Bran IV in Storm)

Bran tells us in the same chapter that he had once asked Benjen about the Nightfort and the stories of what had happened there; Benjen had apparently merely responded that the Night's Watch had been abandoned 200 years previously. Bran also tells us this, when Meera tries to climb the ice steps:  Lord Wraith recently brought to my attention that this is right around the time that Queen Alysanne visited and Snowgate's name was changed to Queensgate.    There was also some battle between 2 different factions of the NW right aroundthis time.    I suspect there is a whole lot more than cost and maintenance involved in the closing of the Nightfort.   Spooky place.  

She wasn't really climbing, the way he used to climb. She was only walking up some steps that the Night's Watch had hewn hundreds and thousands of years ago. He remembered Maester Luwin saying the Nightfort was the only castle where the steps had been cut from the ice of the Wall itself. Or maybe it had been Uncle Benjen. The newer castles had wooden steps, or stone ones, or long ramps of earth and gravel. Ice is too treacherous. It was his uncle who'd told him that. He said that the outer surface of the Wall wept icy tears sometimes, though the core inside stayed frozen hard as rock. The steps must have melted and refrozen a thousand times since the last black brothers left the castle, and every time they did they shrunk a little and got smoother and rounder and more treacherous. (Bran IV in Storm)   Dame, this has me thinking along the lines of the consciousness of the Wall itself.   Is The Wall sabotaging entrance and exit from the Nightfort?   

Bran tells us lots of stories about the Nightfort in this particular chapter - don't worry, I won't quote them all!! - including that of the Night's King:

He brought her back to the Nightfort and proclaimed her a queen and himself her king, and with strange sorceries he bound his Sworn Brothers to his will. For thirteen years they had ruled, Night's King and his corpse queen, till finally the Stark of Winterfell and Joramun of the wildlings had joined to free the Watch from bondage. After his fall, when it was found he had been sacrificing to the Others, all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden. (Bran IV in Storm)

The fact that he brought her back to the Nightfort suggests that was his base. The Night's King was Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. The 13th Lord Commander. That would suggest that at that time, it was the Nightfort that was the seat of the Lord Commander in the same way as Castle Black is for Jeor Mormont and Jon Snow. The door that Bran passes through is likely the same one that men of the Nightfort passed through when departing on/returning from ranging missions. It is not a jump too far to assume that the passcode at that time was the Night's Watch vow.  It seems to be the only entrance to the Nightfort at this point, doesn't it?

This is addressed in a manner of sorts by Stannis later in Storm:

"The Nightfort is the largest and oldest of the castles on the Wall," the king said. "That is where I intend to make my seat, whilst I fight this war. You will show me this gate."

"I," said Sam, "I w-will, if . . ." If it is still there. If it will open for a man not of the black. If . . .(Sam V in Storm)

The Nightfort goes back to at least the time of the 13th Lord Commander, the Night's King - and, Stannis tells us, was in fact the first castle to be built, which means that it makes sense for it to be the seat of the Lord Commander. I would hazard a guess that the door goes back that far and that the vow the door knows is the vow of that time. The vow that Sam must recite as a sworn brother of the Night's Watch to pass through.   All our recent discussion of Stannis and here we are.   I take it you don't see Stannis returning north to enjoy his new abode?   Still, I would like to know what's in that vast ruin or is it possible it the cursed repository for all the evil in the Wall?

TWOIAF tells us:

Beneath the shadow of that wall of ice, the Night's Watch raised nineteen strongholds—though they are unlike any other castles in the Seven Kingdoms, for they have no curtain walls or other defensive fortifications to protect them (the Wall itself being more than ample against any threat coming from the north, and the Watch insists it has no foes to the south).

The greatest and oldest of these is the Nightfort, which has been abandoned for the past two hundred years; as the Watch shrunk, its size made it too large and too costly to maintain. Maesters who served at the Nightfort whilst it was still in use made it plain that the castle had been expanded upon many times over the centuries and that little remained of its original structure save for some of the deepest vaults chiseled out of the rock beneath the castle's feet.

I would guess that the door they pass through is either part or all of the original structure that remains.  Maybe someone will be sent to find the library!  Wonder if Selyse will find her way down to her new residence?   

I could be off in my assumptions, but hopefully you can see from the above how I came to them! I have thought for a while that the mention of wives, lands etc may be as a result of the reign of the Night's King. That could explain why it is not included in the words Sam recites to the door - that section of the vow was not added until after the door and the magics that it uses. To me, it makes sense for the vow to evolve over time. As mistakes were made, and tyrants rose and fell, the vow could be tweaked slightly or substantially in an effort to prevent a repeat.    We would be off in your assumption together, Dame.   

As for Jon and his release from the Night's Watch, my thoughts on that relate to the vow he swears. I have always thought that the purpose of the Night's Watch is summed up in one line of the vow..........The shield that guards the realms of men. If we look at Lord Commander Mormont's discussion with Sam after the attack at the Fist of the First Men, that is a much better way of making my point!    Nw my head spins with visions of Jamie being the one to understand the true meaning of the vows or little Shireen finding where and why the no wives, etc.  part was added and the Tormund or Val throwing something in that was lost from long ago. 

"We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?" (Sam II in Storm)

I have bolded and underlined a section of your post. I think that if Jon could be made to realize that leaving the Night's Watch and rallying the North to fight the true enemy would be a continuation of - rather than a departure from - this vow, then he could depart honorably without death being the reason. It would not be an easy way out, and Jon would still demonstrably be The shield that guards the realms of men while retaining his honor. What it would come down to is Jon and how he thinks he could best carry out this vow he has sworn.  YES!!!

As for Robb and his royal decrees, legitimization and releasing Jon from his Watch............

"Jon's more a Stark than some lordlings from the Vale who have never so much as set eyes on Winterfell."

"Jon is a brother of the Night's Watch, sworn to take no wife and hold no lands. Those who take the black serve for life."

"So do the knights of the Kingsguard. That did not stop the Lannisters from stripping the white cloaks from Ser Barristan Selmy and Ser Boros Blount when they had no more use for them. If I send the Watch a hundred men in Jon's place, I'll wager they find some way to release him from his vows."

He is set on this. Catelyn knew how stubborn her son could be. "A bastard cannot inherit."

"Not unless he's legitimized by a royal decree," said Robb. "There is more precedent for that than for releasing a Sworn Brother from his oath."

"Precedent," she said bitterly. "Yes, Aegon the Fourth legitimized all his bastards on his deathbed. And how much pain, grief, war, and murder grew from that? I know you trust Jon. But can you trust his sons? Or their sons? The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the Targaryens for five generations, until Barristan the Bold slew the last of them on the Stepstones. If you make Jon legitimate, there is no way to turn him bastard again. Should he wed and breed, any sons you may have by Jeyne will never be safe." (Catelyn V in Storm)

Even if there was no precedent for releasing a brother of the Night's Watch from his vows, as Robb has demonstrated precedents can easily be made. Should one exist - as I too think it does - it makes sense for a Stark to know about it. How many times are we told of the Stark in Winterfell involving himself in matters of the Night's Watch?! In the first few chapters of Thrones, we even have Ned speaking of the possibility of taking men north to deal with Mance, before Robert's arrival and offer of the Handship turns his attention southward. As to the existence of precedence, the fact Robb speaks of more precedence suggests that some do exist. But Catelyn focuses on legitimization and drags the conversation away from any precedent to the Blackfyre Rebellions. Her paranoia with regards to Jon prevents us from finding out more information!    There she goes throwing a wrench into things again.   There are so many conversations GRRM has taken us through to ultimately prevent the real information from coming to light.   This guy is an evil genius.  

It may have been a Stark or Northman that was released from their vows. Perhaps it was a similar circumstance - an heir was needed as the family in question was extinct in the male line? The suppressed annals may be a source of information - an alternative could be the Winterfell library or the scrolls Sam does not have time to peruse. We know from Tyrion that there were rare scrolls in the former, and that the scrolls Sam peruses go back hundreds, possibly thousands, of years.    That is along the lines I was thinking in tying A Stark Must Always be in Winterfell to releasing Jon.   In Robb's case, a King at war, Jon and Sansa were his only options at the time and Sansa was most definitely out of the will by virtue of marriage.  

This discussion between Alys and Jon in Dance is illuminating in terms of the numbers and types of men Robb could have sent to the Watch:

"My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

It was a tale that any northmen knew well. "My father's grandmother was a Flint of the mountains, on his mother's side," Jon told her. "The First Flints, they call themselves. They say the other Flints are the blood of younger sons, who had to leave the mountains to find food and land and wives. It has always been a harsh life up there. When the snows fall and food grows scarce, their young must travel to the winter town or take service at one castle or the other. The old men gather up what strength remains in them and announce that they are going hunting. Some are found come spring. More are never seen again."

"It is much the same at Karhold."

That did not surprise him. "When your stores begin to dwindle, my lady, remember us. Send your old men to the Wall, let them say our words. Here at least they will not die alone in the snow, with only memories to warm them. Send us boys as well, if you have boys to spare."

"As you say." She touched his hand. "Karhold remembers." (Jon X in Dance)

This exchange suggests that throughout the North, there are potential Night's Watch recruits. Jon speaks to Alys about sending old men and spare young boys to the Wall to prevent them from relieving their families and liege lords of the burden they are. If we look at the green boys and old men that go to Winterfell with the Umbers, for example, then we find more of the same. Given the Northern attitude to winter that Jon outlines in his story of the Flints (and presumably other Clansmen) it could not have been too difficult for Robb to find a hundred men to replace Jon. They would likely not be fighting men, many of them, but it would not be difficult to locate a hundred men willing to relieve their families and liege lords of an added burden with winter approaching.    Yes, it's clear when all the information is in front of me.   I am a victim of tunnel vision on this.    All my argument stemmed from thinking the 100 men had to be primo warrior/soldier/knight types while basically ignoring the fact that the NW was begging for the old, infirm and very young and even made a place for women and girls.  

Sidebar: we recently spoke of the Royces, and I noted when re-reading this section of text that Lady Alys says Karhold remembers. Perhaps that is an indication that the We Remember of House Royce relates to the Watch and the need to send men there? Or perhaps I am once again looking into this a bit too much!!    Right.   When did you begin thinking anything was by chance in this story?   I'm certain Alys' words work right into "the North remembers", "We Remember" and "Winter Is Coming". 

Looking back on what I have typed so far, I realize how much of it relates to Storm. We have read Feast and Dance since then, but these strands of plot remain important and will continue to be so in Winds. Robb's will has still to make its way north, and we will need to wait and see when news of it arrives at Castle Black (if it ever does).  Once again I seem to be back to saying that the unfolding of events will be dependent on when!   Oh really nice now that all this talk has me  merging Jon and Jamie and having Stannis try to get through the black gate...

Finally, to the Hooded Man in Winterfell - bemused, I have read your posts on the subject and your arguments for Benjen being the Hooded Man are compelling. Realistically, I think it can only be one of three people - Benjen himself, Hallis Mollen and Harwin. Theon clearly believes that the Hooded Man is someone he knows and believes to be dead and therefore does not, I feel, entirely believe them to be real. They are just one of the ghosts that haunt him. Benjen, Hal and Harwin all fit this description. And while Lady Stoneheart has a Northman with her when Brienne encounters her in Feast, he is unnamed. That said, thematically I feel that Benjen is an excellent candidate and if you twisted my arm and forced me to pick I might just pick him. The Stark in Winterfell concept has been repeatedly shoved down our throats since the first few chapters of book one. It means something. I believe the magics surrounding the black door may be similar to those in Winterfell.  

What is down in the lower levels of the crypts of Winterfell, and why are they in such disrepair? There are so many questions I have as to what magics Winterfell could hold!! But I definitely believe it is related to the concept of The Stark in Winterfell.   I'm seconding that and adding the ghosts of the kings of Winter and dragons, hot or cold and a certain network of caves...

I thought you would enjoy this conversation, Dame, and I see you have indeed.   There is so much potential for Jon in this, and the Wildlings, too, I suspect...perhaps even a long missing uncle?   

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, dornishdame said:

 

1 hour ago, dornishdame said:

 

[Curled Finger]

54 minutes ago, dornishdame said:

First off, like Curled Finger I am excited to see the ideas expressed - ideas that will no doubt have a huge impact on how plot lines unfold and merge in Winds.    bemused threatened to bring this over from another thread.   I've been looking for this for over a week.   It's such an interesting concept that the vows have been and may still yet be altered and the problem of Jon's honor and release from the NW vows.

I have long thought that the Night's Watch vow Jon and Sam recite in front of the weirwood tree when they join is not the original vow. From the scene in Storm when Bran passes through the Wall at the Nightfort, I think the words Sam recites to open the door comprise the original Night's Watch vow.

They were white too, and blind. "Who are you?" the door asked, and the well whispered, "Who-who-who-who-who-who-who."

"I am the sword in the darkness," Samwell Tarly said. "I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers. I am the shield that guards the realms of men."

"Then pass," the door said. Its lips opened, wide and wider and wider still, until nothing at all remained but a great gaping mouth in a ring of wrinkles. (Bran IV in Storm)

Bran tells us in the same chapter that he had once asked Benjen about the Nightfort and the stories of what had happened there; Benjen had apparently merely responded that the Night's Watch had been abandoned 200 years previously. Bran also tells us this, when Meera tries to climb the ice steps:  Lord Wraith recently brought to my attention that this is right around the time that Queen Alysanne visited and Snowgate's name was changed to Queensgate.    There was also some battle between 2 different factions of the NW right aroundthis time.    I suspect there is a whole lot more than cost and maintenance involved in the closing of the Nightfort.   Spooky place.  

She wasn't really climbing, the way he used to climb. She was only walking up some steps that the Night's Watch had hewn hundreds and thousands of years ago. He remembered Maester Luwin saying the Nightfort was the only castle where the steps had been cut from the ice of the Wall itself. Or maybe it had been Uncle Benjen. The newer castles had wooden steps, or stone ones, or long ramps of earth and gravel. Ice is too treacherous. It was his uncle who'd told him that. He said that the outer surface of the Wall wept icy tears sometimes, though the core inside stayed frozen hard as rock. The steps must have melted and refrozen a thousand times since the last black brothers left the castle, and every time they did they shrunk a little and got smoother and rounder and more treacherous. (Bran IV in Storm)   Dame, this has me thinking along the lines of the consciousness of the Wall itself.   Is The Wall sabotaging entrance and exit from the Nightfort?   

Bran tells us lots of stories about the Nightfort in this particular chapter - don't worry, I won't quote them all!! - including that of the Night's King:

He brought her back to the Nightfort and proclaimed her a queen and himself her king, and with strange sorceries he bound his Sworn Brothers to his will. For thirteen years they had ruled, Night's King and his corpse queen, till finally the Stark of Winterfell and Joramun of the wildlings had joined to free the Watch from bondage. After his fall, when it was found he had been sacrificing to the Others, all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden. (Bran IV in Storm)

The fact that he brought her back to the Nightfort suggests that was his base. The Night's King was Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. The 13th Lord Commander. That would suggest that at that time, it was the Nightfort that was the seat of the Lord Commander in the same way as Castle Black is for Jeor Mormont and Jon Snow. The door that Bran passes through is likely the same one that men of the Nightfort passed through when departing on/returning from ranging missions. It is not a jump too far to assume that the passcode at that time was the Night's Watch vow.  It seems to be the only entrance to the Nightfort at this point, doesn't it?

This is addressed in a manner of sorts by Stannis later in Storm:

"The Nightfort is the largest and oldest of the castles on the Wall," the king said. "That is where I intend to make my seat, whilst I fight this war. You will show me this gate."

"I," said Sam, "I w-will, if . . ." If it is still there. If it will open for a man not of the black. If . . .(Sam V in Storm)

The Nightfort goes back to at least the time of the 13th Lord Commander, the Night's King - and, Stannis tells us, was in fact the first castle to be built, which means that it makes sense for it to be the seat of the Lord Commander. I would hazard a guess that the door goes back that far and that the vow the door knows is the vow of that time. The vow that Sam must recite as a sworn brother of the Night's Watch to pass through.   All our recent discussion of Stannis and here we are.   I take it you don't see Stannis returning north to enjoy his new abode?   Still, I would like to know what's in that vast ruin or is it possible it the cursed repository for all the evil in the Wall?

TWOIAF tells us:

Beneath the shadow of that wall of ice, the Night's Watch raised nineteen strongholds—though they are unlike any other castles in the Seven Kingdoms, for they have no curtain walls or other defensive fortifications to protect them (the Wall itself being more than ample against any threat coming from the north, and the Watch insists it has no foes to the south).

The greatest and oldest of these is the Nightfort, which has been abandoned for the past two hundred years; as the Watch shrunk, its size made it too large and too costly to maintain. Maesters who served at the Nightfort whilst it was still in use made it plain that the castle had been expanded upon many times over the centuries and that little remained of its original structure save for some of the deepest vaults chiseled out of the rock beneath the castle's feet.

I would guess that the door they pass through is either part or all of the original structure that remains.  Maybe someone will be sent to find the library!  Wonder if Selyse will find her way down to her new residence?   

I could be off in my assumptions, but hopefully you can see from the above how I came to them! I have thought for a while that the mention of wives, lands etc may be as a result of the reign of the Night's King. That could explain why it is not included in the words Sam recites to the door - that section of the vow was not added until after the door and the magics that it uses. To me, it makes sense for the vow to evolve over time. As mistakes were made, and tyrants rose and fell, the vow could be tweaked slightly or substantially in an effort to prevent a repeat.    We would be off in your assumption together, Dame.   

As for Jon and his release from the Night's Watch, my thoughts on that relate to the vow he swears. I have always thought that the purpose of the Night's Watch is summed up in one line of the vow..........The shield that guards the realms of men. If we look at Lord Commander Mormont's discussion with Sam after the attack at the Fist of the First Men, that is a much better way of making my point!    Nw my head spins with visions of Jamie being the one to understand the true meaning of the vows or little Shireen finding where and why the no wives, etc.  part was added and the Tormund or Val throwing something in that was lost from long ago. 

"We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?" (Sam II in Storm)

I have bolded and underlined a section of your post. I think that if Jon could be made to realize that leaving the Night's Watch and rallying the North to fight the true enemy would be a continuation of - rather than a departure from - this vow, then he could depart honorably without death being the reason. It would not be an easy way out, and Jon would still demonstrably be The shield that guards the realms of men while retaining his honor. What it would come down to is Jon and how he thinks he could best carry out this vow he has sworn.  YES!!!

As for Robb and his royal decrees, legitimization and releasing Jon from his Watch............

"Jon's more a Stark than some lordlings from the Vale who have never so much as set eyes on Winterfell."

"Jon is a brother of the Night's Watch, sworn to take no wife and hold no lands. Those who take the black serve for life."

"So do the knights of the Kingsguard. That did not stop the Lannisters from stripping the white cloaks from Ser Barristan Selmy and Ser Boros Blount when they had no more use for them. If I send the Watch a hundred men in Jon's place, I'll wager they find some way to release him from his vows."

He is set on this. Catelyn knew how stubborn her son could be. "A bastard cannot inherit."

"Not unless he's legitimized by a royal decree," said Robb. "There is more precedent for that than for releasing a Sworn Brother from his oath."

"Precedent," she said bitterly. "Yes, Aegon the Fourth legitimized all his bastards on his deathbed. And how much pain, grief, war, and murder grew from that? I know you trust Jon. But can you trust his sons? Or their sons? The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the Targaryens for five generations, until Barristan the Bold slew the last of them on the Stepstones. If you make Jon legitimate, there is no way to turn him bastard again. Should he wed and breed, any sons you may have by Jeyne will never be safe." (Catelyn V in Storm)

Even if there was no precedent for releasing a brother of the Night's Watch from his vows, as Robb has demonstrated precedents can easily be made. Should one exist - as I too think it does - it makes sense for a Stark to know about it. How many times are we told of the Stark in Winterfell involving himself in matters of the Night's Watch?! In the first few chapters of Thrones, we even have Ned speaking of the possibility of taking men north to deal with Mance, before Robert's arrival and offer of the Handship turns his attention southward. As to the existence of precedence, the fact Robb speaks of more precedence suggests that some do exist. But Catelyn focuses on legitimization and drags the conversation away from any precedent to the Blackfyre Rebellions. Her paranoia with regards to Jon prevents us from finding out more information!    There she goes throwing a wrench into things again.   There are so many conversations GRRM has taken us through to ultimately prevent the real information from coming to light.   This guy is an evil genius.  

It may have been a Stark or Northman that was released from their vows. Perhaps it was a similar circumstance - an heir was needed as the family in question was extinct in the male line? The suppressed annals may be a source of information - an alternative could be the Winterfell library or the scrolls Sam does not have time to peruse. We know from Tyrion that there were rare scrolls in the former, and that the scrolls Sam peruses go back hundreds, possibly thousands, of years.    That is along the lines I was thinking in tying A Stark Must Always be in Winterfell to releasing Jon.   In Robb's case, a King at war, Jon and Sansa were his only options at the time and Sansa was most definitely out of the will by virtue of marriage.  

This discussion between Alys and Jon in Dance is illuminating in terms of the numbers and types of men Robb could have sent to the Watch:

"My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

It was a tale that any northmen knew well. "My father's grandmother was a Flint of the mountains, on his mother's side," Jon told her. "The First Flints, they call themselves. They say the other Flints are the blood of younger sons, who had to leave the mountains to find food and land and wives. It has always been a harsh life up there. When the snows fall and food grows scarce, their young must travel to the winter town or take service at one castle or the other. The old men gather up what strength remains in them and announce that they are going hunting. Some are found come spring. More are never seen again."

"It is much the same at Karhold."

That did not surprise him. "When your stores begin to dwindle, my lady, remember us. Send your old men to the Wall, let them say our words. Here at least they will not die alone in the snow, with only memories to warm them. Send us boys as well, if you have boys to spare."

"As you say." She touched his hand. "Karhold remembers." (Jon X in Dance)

This exchange suggests that throughout the North, there are potential Night's Watch recruits. Jon speaks to Alys about sending old men and spare young boys to the Wall to prevent them from relieving their families and liege lords of the burden they are. If we look at the green boys and old men that go to Winterfell with the Umbers, for example, then we find more of the same. Given the Northern attitude to winter that Jon outlines in his story of the Flints (and presumably other Clansmen) it could not have been too difficult for Robb to find a hundred men to replace Jon. They would likely not be fighting men, many of them, but it would not be difficult to locate a hundred men willing to relieve their families and liege lords of an added burden with winter approaching.    Yes, it's clear when all the information is in front of me.   I am a victim of tunnel vision on this.    All my argument stemmed from thinking the 100 men had to be primo warrior/soldier/knight types while basically ignoring the fact that the NW was begging for the old, infirm and very young and even made a place for women and girls.  

Sidebar: we recently spoke of the Royces, and I noted when re-reading this section of text that Lady Alys says Karhold remembers. Perhaps that is an indication that the We Remember of House Royce relates to the Watch and the need to send men there? Or perhaps I am once again looking into this a bit too much!!    Right.   When did you begin thinking anything was by chance in this story?   I'm certain Alys' words work right into "the North remembers", "We Remember" and "Winter Is Coming". 

Looking back on what I have typed so far, I realize how much of it relates to Storm. We have read Feast and Dance since then, but these strands of plot remain important and will continue to be so in Winds. Robb's will has still to make its way north, and we will need to wait and see when news of it arrives at Castle Black (if it ever does).  Once again I seem to be back to saying that the unfolding of events will be dependent on when!   Oh really nice now that all this talk has me  merging Jon and Jamie and having Stannis try to get through the black gate...

Finally, to the Hooded Man in Winterfell - bemused, I have read your posts on the subject and your arguments for Benjen being the Hooded Man are compelling. Realistically, I think it can only be one of three people - Benjen himself, Hallis Mollen and Harwin. Theon clearly believes that the Hooded Man is someone he knows and believes to be dead and therefore does not, I feel, entirely believe them to be real. They are just one of the ghosts that haunt him. Benjen, Hal and Harwin all fit this description. And while Lady Stoneheart has a Northman with her when Brienne encounters her in Feast, he is unnamed. That said, thematically I feel that Benjen is an excellent candidate and if you twisted my arm and forced me to pick I might just pick him. The Stark in Winterfell concept has been repeatedly shoved down our throats since the first few chapters of book one. It means something. I believe the magics surrounding the black door may be similar to those in Winterfell.  

What is down in the lower levels of the crypts of Winterfell, and why are they in such disrepair? There are so many questions I have as to what magics Winterfell could hold!! But I definitely believe it is related to the concept of The Stark in Winterfell.   I'm seconding that and adding the ghosts of the kings of Winter and dragons, hot or cold and a certain network of caves...

I thought you would enjoy this conversation, Dame, and I see you have indeed.   There is so much potential for Jon in this, and the Wildlings, too, I suspect...perhaps even a long missing uncle?   

[Curled Finger]

38 minutes ago, bemused said:

Curled finger .. I'm glad you find this stuff worth thinking about.. Of course I can be wrong about any of it, but if I wind up with a bit of egg on my face ... well, to quote my mother, "There are worse misfortunes at sea".    I just quadrupled posted without even trying.   Top that for bonehead!

Regarding Starks, KitN, the magic in the Wall and Winterfell... I have these nebulous feelings that although the LC hasn't always been a Stark, and doesn't always need to be, that when a long winter approaches, or in earlier times, closer to the Long Night (when men felt closer to magic), the magic's need/ desire for a Stark LC would become more urgent. This might be evidenced by the Stark boy LCs. I don't think there can be a purely rational explanation for electing a 10 yr old...and I'm sure a more experienced Stark would have been preferable, had one been available.  Yes, the meaning behind the Stark at Winterfell is really beginning to take shape.   I'm frustrated that the characters know so much more than we do and it didn't cost them $20 a pop either.   This is a far more integral part of the story of Westeros than I originally gave credit, localizing it to the North.   You wouldn't believe where my mind is taking me with this.  In past conversations I really did see this as sort of secondary or proprietary Stark propaganda.   Since you've so nicely divided magic from politics it's clear that the Starks are almost blood bound to rule the North.  

Winterfell itself may be a fall-back position or a fail-safe for the Wall. The Lord Commander and the King in the North / King of Winter carry the same banner, magically speaking. Even politically speaking, they have often, historically, served as back up to each other. 

Supposing I'm right about Benjen and supposing Rickon survives.. The wall needs a Stark, WF needs a Stark, and Rickon would still need a regent or protector, who I think should also be a Stark, otherwise outside political influences could creep in, to the detriment of the magic. Rickon's very wolfish and being a warg must be a plus, but children are very much at risk during winter, and he has not been raised to command. He can continue the Stark line, eventually, if he survives, but what about in the meantime? ...The magic may not be motivated by politics, but men are ... and politically, the Stark name is still on very shaky ground with Rickon still a young child, Bran still young and unlikely to have children and Benjen and Jon (even if Robb has legitimised him as a Stark) sworn to the NW. Something, or a number of somethings have to give.  I'm not counting Bran out on any front, Winterfell, The Nights Watch or Last Greenseeing Old God.   He's a player.  I'm hoping to get a better hold on the fierce little boy Rickon was as opposed to the older boy he will be.   Jon is a rule breaker, every bit as much as Dany is.   I'm thinking the entirety of Westeros is his oyster.   What he chooses, and I expect it will be to continue to uphold his vows in being the shield that guards the realms of men, will lead him far north and then far south or vice versa.   Benjen as LC is tricky because of his old relations with the Wildlings, but there is no reason he wouldn't serve well at Winterfell.   Would his vows allow him as well, to leave the wall to be a shield at another location?    Sort of like BR disappearing and taking up in the cave.   Has he neglected his duties to the realms of men in doing so?   I think not.   I don't expect Sansa to relocate to Winterfell, but Arya is coming home and though I doubt she will go to Winterfell I see her having a huge part to play all things concerning the North.   Benjen, Rickon, Bran and Jon pretty much are the players between the Wall and Winterfell.  

Either Jon or Benjen could fill that bill, depending on what happens with the NW oath and whether either of them could be/ needed to be released. But if Jon left, and BJ became LC what would happen with the wildlings who swore to Jon?   I got a little ahead of myself above.   This exactly, what of Benjen's relationship with The Wildlings?  

I think Jon's bond with the wildlings is extremely important, and I'll be surprised if that doesn't culminate in a marriage with Val, and children of his own ( though not necessarily a happily-ever-after ending).   There is an attraction between Jon and Val no doubt.   And there is that baby who needs a foster family.   I haven't actually given any thought to Jon marrying (mostly because of the vows), but you open an entirely new line of speculation for me here.  

I know you were joking about Jon just buggering off, but what if The King in the North became a separate entity (a sort-of Uber Stark)..with say, Rickon Lord of WF, Bran in his special spiritual/magical position, Benjen as LC and Jon as KitN? (Allowing for the magic of the wall not caring if someone calls it's man "king", so long as he's true to the magic.)...Would the wildlings then find much difference between folowing the King-beyond-the-wall and King-in-the-north? ..Especially if Jon eschews the pomp and trappings of Southron kings and doesn't demand a crown, kneeling or a hereditary succession.(For some of these, the magic may not care, but the Free Folk do) I'll stress again, these are nebulous ideas, and GRRM has tons of leeway.   A controlling Stark force.  I like it and suspect all the North will like it. 

Now jump to Jon's Targaryen blood and "the Dragon has three heads". Many are betting the 3 heads would be Dany, Jon and Tyrion, and I can see how that could work without upsetting some important apple carts.

Dany - Targaryen bloodline
Jon - Targaryen and Stark
Tyrion - Targaryen and Lannister (assuming he's not Tywin's son )
**Aside : I like the idea that none of Tywin's children are his and lean toward it, but I don't say that must be**

I don't think there has to be an actual marriage between any of them , except in the sense the Greatjon meant when he said "It was the Dragons we married"..just the equivalence of marriage with equal partners. (This would be another triarchy) .. Getting away from close incestuous ties seems a good idea, to me.   I never expected to write the words incest has become tedious.   

Further, in the interest of merging important bloodlines (and story arcs), who might they marry, then?
Jon + Val .. brings more first men blood to the equation
Tyrion + Sansa .. already married, though not consumated, brings in Tully, Whent and maybe Lothston, etc..
Dany + Daario  ..(yes, I said that)... Brings in Martell and unknown (maybe Blackfyre or Brightflame, healing one or more rifts).. Declaration : Not so nebulous - I think Daario is most probably Oberyn's son and as soon as I finish this post, I'm buggering off to finish composing Part II from my copious notes.    Now that will be an interesting read.    I know Dame and I get into some very long and curved conversations, but earlier this week we were discussing the nature of Gerold Dayne.    I recently reread Arienne 1 from TWOW and was struck by how dark and dangerous Arienne really thinks Darkstar is.    I'm hoping for a good guy turn out of him, being a Dayne and all--for that I will wait and see.

Curled Finger, you're no doubt way more up on sword lore than I am, but some random thoughts about the future companions (whatever their number), or just Jon's stalwarts at the wall (not necessarily his bosom buddies) .. Some may be there already... I think Satin is a Hightower bastard, and I think Mance is Qorgyll's bastard (and doesn't have an anti-Jon agenda) .. I think Theon may be sent to the wall and get onside (Asha may eventually serve as regent for Theon's son with the captain's daughter, meanwhile implementing her vision for the Ironborn).. I just feel Jaime (possibly a bastard) is eventually headed north ... whether sent, or following an inner prompting to expiate his crime against Bran. I would never have said so, following AGoT, but damnit ! ..I want him to have a chance to earn his place in history as "The Goldenhand" and I don't want anything to happen to his first named horse "Honor", either.. ( but I think he'll continue to be carried by his honour anyway..).. What about Brienne, (no doubt bearing Dunk's bastard bloodline)?.. I always thought Shireen was doomed and that Stannis might avenge her, then take the black (but maybe he'll die).. Davos might stay in the north, depending what happens to Stannis and Devan, and how he reacts (especially if Jon could arrange for Marya and the young ones to cross the narrow sea as Davos wished) He could represent the countless smallfolk... then, too, Gendry could easily wind up at the wall, bearing Baratheon blood (and the gods know an armourer is needed)... Edd is already there, and I'll be interested to see if we learn more about the Tolletts in TWoW.. (and the Royces for that matter)...Now there's a fine can of worms to open with me around.    I am matching the 12 swords to the 12 companions I expect to do their part to reenact TLN with (hey, you put Daario out there so the door is open) with Bran as TLH.   He will be calling the heroes and they will be finding swords.    I've only got 3 I'm absolutely sure about and of course Brienne is #1, having already been matched to her sword.   Meera needs to find Dark Sister in the cave and get busy.   Dame has almost convinced me that Asha is the 3rd, but I still see her as you say, ruling the II as regent for her nephew  (that was a little twisted, I've always figured Asha was a hero and Dame argues that she is a hero and will die and I much prefer Asha as regent to bring the II into the fold).   Beyond them I have some strong suspects, but I'm having trouble getting them to the swords and on their way to the North.    I really need Winds to get this actually moving so the pieces are a little clearer to see.   But I see where you went with the trusted brothers at the Wall.   Jamie is written for redemption, just as Theon is, though I only see one of them as a companion.  Now I hadn't really considered bloodlines outside the great houses for the companions, but this bears consideration.   

Running away, now.

dornishdame.. We are on the same page with The Black gate, oath and Nightfort ( informed by the same sources) Enjoyed your post immensly.

Intriguing stuff bemused.  

[dornishdame]

14 hours ago, bemused said:

Curled finger .. I'm glad you find this stuff worth thinking about.. Of course I can be wrong about any of it, but if I wind up with a bit of egg on my face ... well, to quote my mother, "There are worse misfortunes at sea".

Regarding Starks, KitN, the magic in the Wall and Winterfell... I have these nebulous feelings that although the LC hasn't always been a Stark, and doesn't always need to be, that when a long winter approaches, or in earlier times, closer to the Long Night (when men felt closer to magic), the magic's need/ desire for a Stark LC would become more urgent. This might be evidenced by the Stark boy LCs. I don't think there can be a purely rational explanation for electing a 10 yr old...and I'm sure a more experienced Stark would have been preferable, had one been available.

Winterfell itself may be a fall-back position or a fail-safe for the Wall. The Lord Commander and the King in the North / King of Winter carry the same banner, magically speaking. Even politically speaking, they have often, historically, served as back up to each other.

So much to reply to in the last couple of posts, so I'm going to try and do it bit by bit and hopefully I won't miss anything out that I wanted to respond to! I do worry this post will be fearfully long......

Firstly, if we are wrong then at least we are not alone in that! Secondly, I love the idea of the importance of having not only a Stark in Winterfell, but also a Stark at the Wall. I went back to the mention of Osric Stark in the books, and Jon's response to Sam is both interesting and potentially backs up your argument:

"My lord, when I was looking through the annals I came on another boy commander. Four hundred years before the Conquest. Osric Stark was ten when he was chosen, but he served for sixty years. That's four, my lord. You're not even close to being the youngest ever chosen. You're fifth youngest, so far."

"The younger four all being sons, brothers, or bastards of the King in the North. Tell me something useful. Tell me of our enemy." (Sam I in Feast)

Of course, we have no idea when this Osric Stark served as Lord Commander, nor when the other Lords Commander younger than Jon served. And yet, the fact that Jon refers to them as sons, brothers or bastards of the King in the North suggests that their period of service was prior to the conquest, when the Starks ruled the North as kings rather than lords. 

Interestingly, when Donal Noye falls in battle against Mag the Mighty in Storm, Maester Aemon rejects Jon's assumption that he should take over and tells Jon that he himself is the man for the job.

"No."

"Yes, Jon. It need not be for long. Only until such time as the garrison returns. Donal chose you, and Qhorin Halfhand before him. Lord Commander Mormont made you his steward. You are a son of Winterfell, a nephew of Benjen Stark. It must be you or no one. The Wall is yours, Jon Snow." (Jon VIII in Storm)

Maester Aemon at least understands the importance of the Stark at the Wall. And I think we should listen to Aemon - he has served the Watch for almost seventy years by this point, and is one of the few maesters open to the concept of magic. He understands that there are magics keeping the Wall intact. And the importance of the Starks in the history of the Night's Watch. 

As for the idea of Winterfell being a fall-back position for the Watch, I have always liked the idea of Winterfell being built at the scene of a battle; that Winter literally fell there. 

13 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Lord Wraith recently brought to my attention that this is right around the time that Queen Alysanne visited and Snowgate's name was changed to Queensgate.    There was also some battle between 2 different factions of the NW right aroundthis time.    I suspect there is a whole lot more than cost and maintenance involved in the closing of the Nightfort.   Spooky place.  

I was looking for some information on the Night's Watch castles in Storm - specifically the Nightfort, because I wanted to see if there are more mentions of it, and located this potentially relevant piece of information:

They had descended the south face of the Wall at Greyguard, abandoned for two hundred years. A section of the huge stone steps had collapsed a century before, but even so the descent was a good deal easier than the climb. (Jon V in Storm)

Perhaps the Nightfort was not the only castle abandoned not long after the visit of King Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne to Winterfell. Which, of course, raises the question of which forts were still manned at this time, and were they all abandoned save the three Jon tells us of? And the question of why they were abandoned. Was it lack of money and men? At a time when the Targaryen King had arranged for more land to be given to the Watch? 

14 hours ago, bemused said:

Supposing I'm right about Benjen and supposing Rickon survives.. The wall needs a Stark, WF needs a Stark, and Rickon would still need a regent or protector, who I think should also be a Stark, otherwise outside political influences could creep in, to the detriment of the magic. Rickon's very wolfish and being a warg must be a plus, but children are very much at risk during winter, and he has not been raised to command. He can continue the Stark line, eventually, if he survives, but what about in the meantime? ...The magic may not be motivated by politics, but men are ... and politically, the Stark name is still on very shaky ground with Rickon still a young child, Bran still young and unlikely to have children and Benjen and Jon (even if Robb has legitimised him as a Stark) sworn to the NW. Something, or a number of somethings have to give.

Either Jon or Benjen could fill that bill, depending on what happens with the NW oath and whether either of them could be/ needed to be released. But if Jon left, and BJ became LC what would happen with the wildlings who swore to Jon?

I think Jon's bond with the wildlings is extremely important, and I'll be surprised if that doesn't culminate in a marriage with Val, and children of his own ( though not necessarily a happily-ever-after ending).
 

I know you were joking about Jon just buggering off, but what if The King in the North became a separate entity (a sort-of Uber Stark)..with say, Rickon Lord of WF, Bran in his special spiritual/magical position, Benjen as LC and Jon as KitN? (Allowing for the magic of the wall not caring if someone calls it's man "king", so long as he's true to the magic.)...Would the wildlings then find much difference between folowing the King-beyond-the-wall and King-in-the-north? ..Especially if Jon eschews the pomp and trappings of Southron kings and doesn't demand a crown, kneeling or a hereditary succession.(For some of these, the magic may not care, but the Free Folk do) I'll stress again, these are nebulous ideas, and GRRM has tons of leeway.

Intriguingly, I did have another thought regarding the Nightfort. In TWOIAF, there is this section I think I have quoted before:

Yet over the thousands of years of its existence as the chief seat of the Watch, the Nightfort has accrued many legends of its own, some of which have been recounted in Archmaester Harmune's Watchers on the Wall. The oldest of these tales concern the legendary Night's King, the thirteenth Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, who was alleged to have bedded a sorceress pale as a corpse and declared himself a king. For thirteen years the Night's King and his "corpse queen" ruled together, before King of Winter, Brandon the Breaker, (in alliance, it is said, with the King-Beyond-the-Wall, Joramun) brought them down. Thereafter, he obliterated the Night's King's very name from memory.

So, it specifically discusses an alliance - albeit a temporary one - between the Stark in Winterfell and the King-Beyond-the-Wall; that is, between the Starks and the wildlings. Bran also speaks of this alliance:

He brought her back to the Nightfort and proclaimed her a queen and himself her king, and with strange sorceries he bound his Sworn Brothers to his will. For thirteen years they had ruled, Night's King and his corpse queen, till finally the Stark of Winterfell and Joramun of the wildlings had joined to free the Watch from bondage. After his fall, when it was found he had been sacrificing to the Others, all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden. (Bran IV in Storm)

Bran's POV chapter goes slightly further in that it speaks of the concept of the Stark in Winterfell and the wildlings joining together against the Watch. The sentiment is the same as TWOIAF, but if we take Bran's words one step further then we may have an inkling or foreshadowing of what could happen in the aftermath of the Ides of Marsh. 

While the wildlings have aligned themselves with Jon, I think that they would be willing to work with Benjen should he have a desire to build on Jon's work, and Jon's uneasy alliance has already shown that if both sides are willing to let the past remain there, then the two groups can work together against their common enemy. But Benjen would have to stick to that and rid himself of some of his mistrust of the free folk. 

There is a recognition among the free folk of the importance of Stark blood. 

"The boy's worth nothing dead, but alive … gods be damned, think what Mance would give to have Benjen Stark's own blood to hostage!" (Bran V in Thrones)

"I know every bawdy song that's ever been made, north or south of the Wall. So there you are. The night your father feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father's meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp . . . and made passing note of Lord Eddard's children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels." (Jon I in Storm)

As for an uber-Stark or a KiTN that operates above or in conjunction with the Stark in Winterfell, I think Jon is the only candidate for that. He has the respect of the wildlings and the blood of the Starks that Northmen revere so much.

"I've never had a crown on my head or sat my arse on a bloody throne, if that's what you're asking," Mance replied. "My birth is as low as a man's can get, no septon's ever smeared my head with oils, I don't own any castles, and my queen wears furs and amber, not silk and sapphires. I am my own champion, my own fool, and my own harpist. You don't become King-beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won't follow a name, and they don't care which brother was born first. They follow fighters. When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The other three I slew, when they made it plain they'd sooner fight than follow." (Jon X in Storm)

As to what could happen later, I have been re-reading the Bael the Bard chapter from Clash - a chapter I think is very relevant to Jon's parentage. There is this section when Ygritte is telling the story - 

"It never happened," Jon said.

She shrugged. "Might be it did, might be it didn't. It is a good song, though. My mother used to sing it to me. She was a woman too, Jon Snow. Like yours." She rubbed her throat where his dirk had cut her. "The song ends when they find the babe, but there is a darker end to the story. Thirty years later, when Bael was King-beyond-the-Wall and led the free folk south, it was young Lord Stark who met him at the Frozen Ford . . . and killed him, for Bael would not harm his own son when they met sword to sword."

"So the son slew the father instead," said Jon.(Jon VI in Clash)

I love the mention of the Frozen Ford......I think it is very compatible with the dream Daenerys has in Storm:

That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper's rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened. (Daenerys III in Storm)

The dream Daenerys has seems to be of a further battle at the Trident, only with the river turned to ice. For me, it matches up to the idea of Jon being frozen fire and we are repeatedly told of Rhaegar falling at the Ruby Ford.....What this foreshadows, I do not know. Some sort of recognition in the dragons (I'm thinking specifically Rhaegal, the dragon named for Jon's father) that Jon is kin and as such should not be killed? We know they react well to Brown Ben Plumm and his probable drops of dragon's blood. It was an idea that I had that probably means nothing, but I thought it relevant (vaguely) to the idea of Jon as a KiTN/KBTW.

14 hours ago, bemused said:

Now jump to Jon's Targaryen blood and "the Dragon has three heads". Many are betting the 3 heads would be Dany, Jon and Tyrion, and I can see how that could work without upsetting some important apple carts.

Dany - Targaryen bloodline
Jon - Targaryen and Stark
Tyrion - Targaryen and Lannister (assuming he's not Tywin's son )
**Aside : I like the idea that none of Tywin's children are his and lean toward it, but I don't say that must be**

I don't think there has to be an actual marriage between any of them , except in the sense the Greatjon meant when he said "It was the Dragons we married"..just the equivalence of marriage with equal partners. (This would be another triarchy) .. Getting away from close incestuous ties seems a good idea, to me

First off, at this stage I have difficulty picturing anyone other than Jon, Daenerys and Tyrion as the three heads of the dragon. Though my opinion may change after reading Winds. I do also like the idea of Tywin fathering no children after his obsession with his legacy - and the idea that all three were fathered by Aerys is intriguing. While I think TWOIAF puts the kybosh on it a little in terms of the timing for Joanna's first pregnancy, it would both explain Cersei's growing obsession with wildfire and provide a Jaime/Tyrion inversion of sorts, in that Tyrion is viewed by many as both a Kingslayer and a Kinslayer whereas if Aerys fathered them both then it would be Jaime in that position and Tyrion would be neither a Kingslayer nor a Kinslayer. Yet. And as for the timing, we have to take into consideration the bias of the writer. The involvement in the Rebellion of the likes of Ned is downplayed because of the political circumstances - the same argument could be made for the maester wanting to avoid mention of Aerys being in close proximity to Joanna at the time of conception. 

As for marrying dragons........I hope we do find out if the Pact of Ice and Fire was ever carried out. The family trees in TWOIAF indicate not, but that does not preclude it happening in the future. And we will hopefully find out at some point if Rhaegar and Lyanna sealed it in marriage.

14 hours ago, bemused said:

Curled Finger, you're no doubt way more up on sword lore than I am, but some random thoughts about the future companions (whatever their number), or just Jon's stalwarts at the wall (not necessarily his bosom buddies) .. Some may be there already... I think Satin is a Hightower bastard, and I think Mance is Qorgyll's bastard (and doesn't have an anti-Jon agenda) .. I think Theon may be sent to the wall and get onside (Asha may eventually serve as regent for Theon's son with the captain's daughter, meanwhile implementing her vision for the Ironborn).. I just feel Jaime (possibly a bastard) is eventually headed north ... whether sent, or following an inner prompting to expiate his crime against Bran. I would never have said so, following AGoT, but damnit ! ..I want him to have a chance to earn his place in history as "The Goldenhand" and I don't want anything to happen to his first named horse "Honor", either.. ( but I think he'll continue to be carried by his honour anyway..).. What about Brienne, (no doubt bearing Dunk's bastard bloodline)?.. I always thought Shireen was doomed and that Stannis might avenge her, then take the black (but maybe he'll die).. Davos might stay in the north, depending what happens to Stannis and Devan, and how he reacts (especially if Jon could arrange for Marya and the young ones to cross the narrow sea as Davos wished) He could represent the countless smallfolk... then, too, Gendry could easily wind up at the wall, bearing Baratheon blood (and the gods know an armourer is needed)... Edd is already there, and I'll be interested to see if we learn more about the Tolletts in TWoW.. (and the Royces for that matter)...

Running away, now.

dornishdame.. We are on the same page with The Black gate, oath and Nightfort ( informed by the same sources) Enjoyed your post immensly.

I agree with you regarding Satin and Mance. Though I think Satin is Littlefinger's man; we are repeatedly told that he comes from Oldtown and was raised in a brothel there - yet according to Donal Noye he was picked up by recruiters in a Vale lordling's dungeon. Although Noye describes the castle as being "near" Gulltown, I have a sneaking suspicion it was the Corbray's. And I think that Littlefinger - who seems to have had more links to the Vale than I think we initially realize in Thrones and Clash - was looking to expand his spy network. It is a bonus that he has come across a Lord Commander that happens to be part-Stark. As for Mance.....in Storm, Jon thinks back on what Benjen has told him about the history of the Night's Watch:

Lord Commander Runcel Hightower tried to bequeathe the Watch to his bastard son. Lord Commander Rodrik Flint thought to make himself King-beyond-the-Wall. (Jon VII in Storm)

We know that there are parallels and inversions between current and historical events in the series. We also know that Qorgyle took Mance south to Winterfell with him on a visit. Was he grooming him for command as Sam thought Jeor Mormont wished to groom Jon?

As for Jaime, I think I have said before that I think he will at some point go north. He is on a redemptive arc, and has specifically dreamed about the one thing I think he feels guilty about from the Rebellion:

They were armored all in snow, it seemed to him, and ribbons of mist swirled back from their shoulders. The visors of their helms were closed, but Jaime Lannister did not need to look upon their faces to know them.

Five had been his brothers. Oswell Whent and Jon Darry. Lewyn Martell, a prince of Dorne. The White Bull, Gerold Hightower. Ser Arthur Dayne, Sword of the Morning. And beside them, crowned in mist and grief with his long hair streaming behind him, rode Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone and rightful heir to the Iron Throne.

"You don't frighten me," he called, turning as they split to either side of him. He did not know which way to face. "I will fight you one by one or all together. But who is there for the wench to duel? She gets cross when you leave her out."

"I swore an oath to keep him safe," she said to Rhaegar's shade. "I swore a holy oath."

"We all swore oaths," said Ser Arthur Dayne, so sadly.

The shades dismounted from their ghostly horses. When they drew their longswords, it made not a sound. "He was going to burn the city," Jaime said. "To leave Robert only ashes."

"He was your king," said Darry.

"You swore to keep him safe," said Whent.

"And the children, them as well," said Prince Lewyn.

Prince Rhaegar burned with a cold light, now white, now red, now dark. "I left my wife and children in your hands."

"I never thought he'd hurt them." Jaime's sword was burning less brightly now. "I was with the king . . ." (Jaime VI in Storm)

I think it is all set up for Jaime to attempt to protect Rhaegar's last child. To succeed where he had previously fail and redeem himself for not protecting Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon. Also - I do wonder if the three colors Rhaegar is described with are significant for Jaime. Do they represent the three colors he will wear during the series? The white of the Kingsguard, the red of the Lannisters (in terms of leading their army) and the dark (black?) of the Night's Watch? Hmmm. Interestingly, white, red and black are three colors I associate with Jon (Ghost is white with red eyes and the Watch are cloaked in black) so perhaps the parallel is with him?

14 hours ago, bemused said:

dornishdame.. We are on the same page with The Black gate, oath and Nightfort ( informed by the same sources) Enjoyed your post immensly.

If someone else is seeing it, then I supposes it increases the chance that I might be right about something! And at the very least it confirms that some of what I see is not a figment of my own very over-active imagination!!

13 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Dame, this has me thinking along the lines of the consciousness of the Wall itself.   Is The Wall sabotaging entrance and exit from the Nightfort?   

It is possible - bemused discussed in a post above the possibility that the Wall killed Jarl because of Jon's knowledge that he may have to do that himself. And I know that I have written before about Ygritte's assertion to Jon that the Wall is built on blood.

"It's made of ice," Jon pointed out.

"You know nothing, Jon Snow. This wall is made o' blood."

Nor had it drunk its fill. By sunset, two of the Thenns had fallen from the ladder to their deaths, but they were the last. It was near midnight before Jon reached the top. The stars were out again, and Ygritte was trembling from the climb. "I almost fell," she said, with tears in her eyes. "Twice. Thrice. The Wall was trying t' shake me off, I could feel it." One of the tears broke free and trickled slowly down her cheek. (Jon IV in Storm).

Intriguingly, this comes from the very chapter in which Jarl dies as they ascend the Wall. If, as we have been told, Brandon the Builder (or, in reality, a Stark of Winterfell) built the Wall - in the sense that they laid the foundations and added the magics that prevent the Others from passing - then it makes sense for the Wall to be sensitive to those with Stark blood in their veins. And Jon is the son of a Stark of Winterfell. 

I have seen - though I cannot recall in which thread - theories that Jon will be locked in an ice cell beneath the Wall while his body recovers and that the intermingling of Jon's blood and the Wall will lead to the Wall being breached. The idea being, I think, that Stark blood raised the Wall and Stark blood would fell it. Wish I could remember where I saw it!

13 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

All our recent discussion of Stannis and here we are.   I take it you don't see Stannis returning north to enjoy his new abode?   Still, I would like to know what's in that vast ruin or is it possible it the cursed repository for all the evil in the Wall?

There does seem to be something about the Nightfort, doesn't there? I think Bran even says himself that it seemed to be the site of some of Old Nan's grizzlier tales. I suppose you could argue that the age of the place and it being the Lord Commander's seat for so long mean that it makes sense for the Nightfort to be so prominent in this way. Perhaps there is something left over from the reign of the Night's King? And we are back to those suppressed annals and what they could tell us!!

I lean towards Sam figuring out a lot at the Citadel - who knows what they have in their vaults? - but there is how he communicates that north, and if he is even able to do so. For me, his arc in Winds is very open. 

As for Stannis, I don't see him going south. Back north is an option, but I cannot see him taking the black while Tommen remains on the Iron Throne. He sees it as his by right and he is not the type to give in. Remember what Donal Noye told us:

"Robert was the true steel. Stannis is pure iron, black and hard and strong, yes, but brittle, the way iron gets. He'll break before he bends. And Renly, that one, he's copper, bright and shiny, pretty to look at but not worth all that much at the end of the day." (Jon I in Clash)

Stannis will never give in. He will keep going even when resistance is futile and will be broken before he gives in. I do not see him taking the black while he tries to press his claim. Being sent there after defeat is another thing, but I cannot see him going south. 

13 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Yes, it's clear when all the information is in front of me.   I am a victim of tunnel vision on this.    All my argument stemmed from thinking the 100 men had to be primo warrior/soldier/knight types while basically ignoring the fact that the NW was begging for the old, infirm and very young and even made a place for women and girls.  

While I think the Watch would prefer 100 fighting men, the reality is that they need stewards as much as rangers. And if Robb were to up that number even further.......it would not be a bad bargain. Especially if your name is Ser Alliser Thorne and you despise Jon Snow and the ground he walks on. And would do anything to rid the Watch of him. 

13 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I'm seconding that and adding the ghosts of the kings of Winter and dragons, hot or cold and a certain network of caves...

With the Battle of Ice due - hopefully! - at the beginning of Winds, we should get some answers then. And I hope that we will uncover Benjen's fate too. 

12 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Now that will be an interesting read.    I know Dame and I get into some very long and curved conversations, but earlier this week we were discussing the nature of Gerold Dayne.    I recently reread Arienne 1 from TWOW and was struck by how dark and dangerous Arienne really thinks Darkstar is.    I'm hoping for a good guy turn out of him, being a Dayne and all--for that I will wait and see.

To reiterate my views on Darkstar - a character I cannot wait to read about again - 

I have to admit that I love reading Darkstar. He is unpredictable, rash, and seems to have some sort of inferiority complex - as the quote below implies - but he is a compelling character to read. 

"My House goes back ten thousand years, unto the dawn of days," he complained. "Why is it that my cousin is the only Dayne that anyone remembers?" (The Queenmaker in Feast).

Is he dangerous? Yes. Discussing him makes me think of a completely unrelated Jon quote:

"Tormund Giantsbane seemed to me the sort of man who would make a good friend and a bad enemy, Your Grace." (Jon XI in Storm)

To me, Darkstar seems to be just that; a terrible enemy but a good ally. The danger he poses depends whether or not you are on his side. I think he was the someone that always tells, and informed Doran about Arianne's plans (the only other valid theory I think I have come across is Tyene, who knew of an earlier plot Arianne had to wed Willas Tyrell before Oberyn caught up with her). Note that Darkstar escapes, while Arys Oakheart is killed in the fallout and the rest of Arianne's loyal band are essentially sent into exile. I think Balon Swann is walking into a Darkstar-sized trap organized by Doran. I am looking forward to Hotah's POV in Winds to see what happens if and when Darkstar is tracked down, and to seeing how that meeting impacts on the wider story. How will Cersei react, for example, if Balon Swann meets the same end as Arys Oakheart? 

As for the Daario as Oberyn's son theory, I have read bemused's thread on the subject and find it intriguing. I am still waiting to be convinced and look forward to seeing more updates on the theory - I tend to see the Brave Companions as being Oberyn's sellsword company (I also believe that Qyburn was one of those feeding Doran information when he reached KL - he seems to be one of the few Cersei would confide in about her plans for Trystane to meet an untimely end). I know Vargo Hoat is a bit wild, but if Oberyn founded the company and then returned to Dorne to focus on avenging Elia without taking a day-to-day interest in the running of the company and the leadership, I think that could work. Also, we have to remember why Quentyn was fostered at Yronwood, and what Oberyn is capable of. 

He knew the man only by reputation, to be sure . . . but the reputation was fearsome. When he was no more than sixteen, Prince Oberyn had been found abed with the paramour of old Lord Yronwood, a huge man of fierce repute and short temper. A duel ensued, though in view of the prince's youth and high birth, it was only to first blood. Both men took cuts, and honor was satisfied. Yet Prince Oberyn soon recovered, while Lord Yronwood's wounds festered and killed him. Afterward men whispered that Oberyn had fought with a poisoned sword, and ever thereafter friends and foes alike called him the Red Viper.

That was many years ago, to be sure. The boy of sixteen was a man past forty now, and his legend had grown a deal darker. He had traveled in the Free Cities, learning the poisoner's trade and perhaps arts darker still, if rumors could be believed. He had studied at the Citadel, going so far as to forge six links of a maester's chain before he grew bored. He had soldiered in the Disputed Lands across the narrow sea, riding with the Second Sons for a time before forming his own company. His tourneys, his battles, his duels, his horses, his carnality . . . it was said that he bedded men and women both, and had begotten bastard girls all over Dorne. The sand snakes, men called his daughters. So far as Tyrion had heard, Prince Oberyn had never fathered a son. (Tyrion V in Storm)

I have an open mind, but I do like the idea of Oberyn being able to father only daughters. 

12 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Now there's a fine can of worms to open with me around.    I am matching the 12 swords to the 12 companions I expect to do their part to reenact TLN with (hey, you put Daario out there so the door is open) with Bran as TLH.   He will be calling the heroes and they will be finding swords.    I've only got 3 I'm absolutely sure about and of course Brienne is #1, having already been matched to her sword.   Meera needs to find Dark Sister in the cave and get busy.   Dame has almost convinced me that Asha is the 3rd, but I still see her as you say, ruling the II as regent for her nephew  (that was a little twisted, I've always figured Asha was a hero and Dame argues that she is a hero and will die and I much prefer Asha as regent to bring the II into the fold).   Beyond them I have some strong suspects, but I'm having trouble getting them to the swords and on their way to the North.    I really need Winds to get this actually moving so the pieces are a little clearer to see. 

I would love to hear more of this - though I am a bit more concerned about the 12 companions as I am sure the 12 companions of the Last Hero died? Maybe you can correct me on that score. I have seen theories that those Bran encountered between leaving the crypts at Winterfell and reaching the cave will die. The idea that they will all have swords is intriguing - or do you mean a different 12 companions/helpers? Sorry - very tired at this point and brain therefore very much not in gear! Either way - which companions and swords do you have matched thus far?

I sort of like Dark Sister for Jon, I have to admit. Though I do see Meera as the conduit to get the sword south of the Wall. She could be guided through the caves that pass beneath the Wall itself - and which, I believe, may come out pretty close to Winterfell. It would match up with an idea I have sort of presented before with Jon being given another sword - something foreshadowed sort of in Thrones:

He is not my father. The thought leapt unbidden to Jon's mind. Lord Eddard Stark is my father. I will not forget him, no matter how many swords they give me. Yet he could scarcely tell Lord Mormont that it was another man's sword he dreamt of …(Jon VIII in Thrones)

While I mainly use that quote when discussing Jon's reaction to finding out he isn't Ned's biological son, I think it also works with regards to swords - the implication is that Jon will be given swords plural rather than a sword singular during the course of the series. And I think Dark Sister is a great fit. It is north (in my opinion - though I know others do not agree - I think Bloodraven or his Raven's Teeth snuck the sword out of KL when he went north to the Wall) and Bloodraven has been keeping an eye on Jon as much as Bran. And Jon has the direwolf that shares the coloring of Bloodraven himself. The coloring of the Old Gods. 

We find out a bit about another Targaryen ancestral blade in The Mystery Knight -

"Ambrose Butterwell has never been what you might call decisive," Ser Maynard said as he wadded up three strips of silk and dropped them in the wine. "He had doubts about this plot from the beginning, doubts that were inflamed when he learned that the boy did not bear the sword. And this morning, his dragon's egg vanished, and with it the last dregs of his courage." (Maynard Plumm aka Bloodraven in The Mystery Knight)

"You must have some loyal guardsmen," said Egg.

"These men here," said Lord Butterwell. "A few more. I've been too lax, I will allow, but I have never been a traitor. Frey and I harbored doubts about Lord Peake's pretender since the beginning. He does not bear the sword! If he were his father's son, Bittersteel would have armed him with Blackfyre. And all this talk about a dragon… madness, madness and folly." His Lordship dabbed the sweat from his face with his sleeve. "And now they have taken the egg, the dragon's egg my grandsire had from the king himself as a reward for leal service. It was there this morning when I woke, and my guards swear no one entered or left the bedchamber. It may be that Lord Peake bought them, I cannot say, but the egg is gone. They must have it, or else…" (The Mystery Knight)

And when Daemon drew his sword and raised it above his head, every man of them could see it was not Blackfyre. (The Mystery Knight)

Wielding Dark Sister, the ancestral blade of his ancestors, would give Jon legitimacy in the eyes of those living south of the Wall (and in particular those south of the Neck) - I mean legitimacy in the sense of being both a battle leader and a warrior of dragon's blood. I spoke above about the possibility of the dragons recognizing something in Jon in a battle on the Trident - perhaps Dark Sister could work in conjunction. Musings aloud, perhaps. But I have had fun reading through these last posts and as usual have written far too much in response!!!

ETA - Thinking aloud (always dangerous in my case!) how do we know about the NIght's King if his very name was suppressed? And what was the source that Archmaester Harmune used in his work on the Night's Watch? Is it possible that while the annals of the Night's Watch and any writings in the North (remember this is pre-conquest) were suppressed, there may have been some elsewhere that were not? I have always imagined that Old Nan's tales are based on oral history passed down through generations for hundreds/thousands of years - perhaps this is the source. And yet I cannot imagine that an Archmaester of the Citadel would base a scholarly work on fairytales. 

[bemused]

You tempt me back for one last go, today... I'll try to be brief, and only touch on a couple of things because Daario is calling me..

Benjen and wildlings and Mance..
I don't think the bad blood between Benjen and the wildlings is insurmountable. To begin with, there must be a grudging respect between them, and though like Ned, Benjen must have seen them as enemies,but even here there some ambiguity (and possible foreshadowing) when in AGoT, Ned thinks he may have to go north of the wall and "deal with" Mance Rayder.

I think Benjen's attitude must have been close to Qhorin's and far from Thoren Smallwood's.. Only fools like Thoren Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong, as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. ...Qhorin, ACoK

With what BJ must have learned on his ranging and the obvious respect between Qhorin, Benjen and Mormont.. no doubt he would have come to Mormont's conclusion (quoted by dame upthread), that the NW had been fighting the wrong enemy.

As for Mance, as early as Jon's wolf dream of Mance's host, we see Mance is trying to bring some of that NW discipline to the free folk ... There were men down in the valley, he saw now; many men, thousands, a huge host. Some were tearing great holes in the half-frozen ground, while others trained for war. He watched as a swarming mass of riders charged a shield wall, astride horses no larger than ants. .. ACoK

Mance calls Jarl Val's pet, Styr calls Jarl Mance's pet . As I said earlier, I definitely think Mance was grooming Jarl for leadership, as in the NW.. and at the same time, trying to provide for his succession, as any king would, in time of war - but for a KBTW, that doesn't mean power passes from father to son. His patronage of Jarl shows care for his people, trying to ensure that what they've gained won't disintegrate at his death.

I don't think Mance is the kind of leader who "would rather fight than follow". Like Tormund, I think he's willing to take a subordinate role for the common good. He knows that if/when his identity is ever revealed and he is seen to have been acting as counselor to Jon and carrying out Jon's orders, there would be no going back to his former position...(Aside: I don't think he's carrying out Mel's agenda, or at least, only so far as it agrees with his own.)

We can assume he must have had more conversations with Jon before leaving CB...And what gave Jon the idea to send Val on her mission for him? Why would Jon entertain the possibility that she could best carry it out? (We can see he's nervous about it) I think he must have been given a suggestion,(without fully revealing Val's true nature, to keep her safe from Mel).

Mance and Benjen have never met, although Mance saw BJ (and took his measure) when he visited WF during Robert's trip north. They may meet at WF in "Winds", and find themselves on the same side.

Ygrite and the awareness of the Wall..

I've been focusing on Jarl, but Ygritte really illustrates the same point. I think the wall does try to shake her off... but Jon's feelings for her may overrule it's efforts. "Jon grabbed Ygritte and pulled her down to shield her," .. when Jarl's group fell. Then.. "The Wall defends itself, Jon thought as he pulled Ygritte back to her feet."... At the top, "Ygritte was trembling from the climb. “I almost fell,” she said, with tears in her eyes. “Twice. Thrice. The Wall was trying t’ shake me off, I could feel it.” " 

Ultimately, Ygritte would not have been a suitable match for Jon if he rose to be the leader the Wall needs...OTOH, Val is, because of her obvious, but so far unexplained high position and her abilities. I think she will be to Jon as Dalla was to Mance - "true queen" and "wise woman" (in the vocational sense). I expect this to become much more apparent in TWoW.

Jon thinks Ghost belongs to the old gods and later, spontaneously thinks Val and Ghost look like they belong together.

Of course when Ygritte says, “You know nothing, Jon Snow. This wall is made o’ blood.” , she means because of all the lives it has claimed, but it also can be taken to hint at Stark blood (and perhaps the "blood" of the weirwoods) being an integral part of it's magical construction.

..be right there, Daario...

[Curled Finger]

Dame, for brevity's sake, I'm just going for the highlights...

"The younger four all being sons, brothers, or bastards of the King in the North. Tell me something useful. Tell me of our enemy." (Sam I in Feast)   

Did you notice that these are direct father to son relations?  No cousins or uncles, though I tend to think of Benjen more as Ned's brother than Jon's uncle...Ned was the last Stark who really held WF.   Yeah, there is something here and it is a straight line.  

As for the idea of Winterfell being a fall-back position for the Watch, I have always liked the idea of Winterfell being built at the scene of a battle; that Winter literally fell there. I've heard this a million times and never understood the finer points of the assumption.   I've not seen it connected this way prior to this discussion, secondary to the Wall. 

They had descended the south face of the Wall at Greyguard, abandoned for two hundred years. A section of the huge stone steps had collapsed a century before, but even so the descent was a good deal easier than the climb. (Jon V in Storm)

Perhaps the Nightfort was not the only castle abandoned not long after the visit of King Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne to Winterfell. Which, of course, raises the question of which forts were still manned at this time, and were they all abandoned save the three Jon tells us of? And the question of why they were abandoned. Was it lack of money and men? At a time when the Targaryen King had arranged for more land to be given to the Watch?    I have driven myself to distraction with the castles along the Wall.   Effective end of ADWD, there are only 2 unmanned and the Nightfort without inhabitants.  A battle between 2 castles along the Wall would deplete garrisons while the rest wither from disuse.   The castles are perhaps the best illustration of how far afield the NW has come from it's original purpose.   Still, the Queen's visit changed things--many things and I'm sure there is something to this as she is referred to far too often for this visit not to have been very important.  

As for an uber-Stark or a KiTN that operates above or in conjunction with the Stark in Winterfell, I think Jon is the only candidate for that. He has the respect of the wildlings and the blood of the Starks that Northmen revere so much.    Poor Robb had no idea, did he? 

Though I think Satin is Littlefinger's man   Could be, but he seems devoted to Jon.   Have I misinterpreted this relationship? 

I would love to hear more of this - though I am a bit more concerned about the 12 companions as I am sure the 12 companions of the Last Hero died? Maybe you can correct me on that score. I have seen theories that those Bran encountered between leaving the crypts at Winterfell and reaching the cave will die. The idea that they will all have swords is intriguing - or do you mean a different 12 companions/helpers? Sorry - very tired at this point and brain therefore very much not in gear! Either way - which companions and swords do you have matched thus far?    Ha!   We never actually leave the topic!  Yes, I expect they will all die which is why I can't in good conscience put Hodor among them.   I have to figure out if Bran will be THERE or if he will remotely lead through Hodor.   Yes, I've read all those theories and they are fascinating.   I still believe the swords will find heroes and all head North.   The reasons are pretty simple.   There were 12 swords, 11 in Westeros and curiously 1 in Lys listed over and over again as the Westerosi VS swords.   2 of the swords are missing, Lamentation, the Royce AS which was lost in the dragon pit at the end of the DOD, and Bright Roar, the Lannister sword.   They are listed as absolutely missing as in gone.  The remaining 10 swords are either accounted for or presumed to be accounted for.   Though no one actually knows where Orphan Maker, Jonathon Roxton's sword, is we do know it was lost at the 2nd Battle of Tumbledon in the DOD.  The 1st sword we come to is destroyed to make voila! 2 more VS swords and even replace the missing Lannister sword.  The math is absolutely there for the reemergence of the swords.   Why bother making Ice into 2 swords if not to make 12 swords for a very specific purpose?   So yes, 12 different hero companions with the right weaponry to obliterate the Others. 

I sort of like Dark Sister for Jon, I have to admit. Though I do see Meera as the conduit to get the sword south of the Wall. She could be guided through the caves that pass beneath the Wall itself - and which, I believe, may come out pretty close to Winterfell. It would match up with an idea I have sort of presented before with Jon being given another sword - something foreshadowed sort of in Thrones:   The problem with Dark Sister, and Widow's Wail I believe, is that they are the only swords a small woman can actually wield.   Jon can handle a bastard sword as well as a great sword, I'm sure.  Remember a great sword is 5 to 6 feet long  and 4 to 6 inches wide, great swords are beasts.   Meera and Arya and probably Asha wouldn't be able to wield the larger swords where DS was made for a woman's hand.   We don't really know what Widow's Wail's configuration is but I suspect it is a much smaller sword than Brienne's massive Oath Keeper.  

Wielding Dark Sister, the ancestral blade of his ancestors, would give Jon legitimacy in the eyes of those living south of the Wall (and in particular those south of the Neck) - I mean legitimacy in the sense of being both a battle leader and a warrior of dragon's blood. I spoke above about the possibility of the dragons recognizing something in Jon in a battle on the Trident - perhaps Dark Sister could work in conjunction.  I understand your logic here and it makes a certain sense.   When you put Blackfyre or Dark Sister in the hands of anyone their Targness will become suspect as the bastards or pretenders were the last known possessors of these blades and they wrought a great deal of dissention.   Even DS, which will be indelibly linked to BR.   DS has a bad reputation--all though it almost calls Arya by name, it's still heavily associated with BR and dark magic.  When Aegon busts out with Blackfyre you can collect on all the bets you made that he is a Blackfyre not a Targ and not a Pisswater Prince.  

The other connected to Targs VS sword is Truth which was the AS of the Rogare family of Lys.   Larra (?) Rogare was the mother of Aegon The Unworthy.  This is a Lysenni sword listed repeatedly as a Westerosi sword.  Was it part of her dowry?  Is it still in Lys?  A really cool connection Lady Blizzardborn shared with me once that was Dany would find Truth per Quaithe's advice.   Not saying it's going to come down that way, but I sure like it to fulfill Dany's promise to Jorah.  

So my heroes thus far are Brienne and Meera.  I was convinced Asha would take her mother's family AS, Nightfall (it's only a longsword) but I'm really on the fence about it.   Theon can wield it no problem and he may even have to in order to pay once and for all for his crimes.   I could go on for days and nights about all the swords and potential hero companions, but you would have to love the swords as much as I do to really experience the nerdfest.  I will leave you with the last bit of key information about the swords, their locations.   As part of our ongoing Merging StoryLines topic, match these swords to the hero and kill them off...

There are 2, possibly 3 (Tumbledon is in the Reach) in The Reach.   Who will Sam give Heartsbane to?   Will Eruon somehow claim the Hightower sword, Vigillance?   Where is Orphan Maker?

There are 2 on the II, the Harlaw sword, Nightfall and the Drumm sword, Red Rain.  (This doesn't bode well for our favorite reaving community does it?)

Long Claw is at the Wall.  Widows Wail is in KL. Lady Forlorn is in the Vale.   LSH has OK in the RL. Blackfyre is probably with Aegon in the Stormlands. DS is most likely in the cave with BR

16 hours ago, dornishdame said:

ETA - Thinking aloud (always dangerous in my case!) how do we know about the NIght's King if his very name was suppressed? And what was the source that Archmaester Harmune used in his work on the Night's Watch? Is it possible that while the annals of the Night's Watch and any writings in the North (remember this is pre-conquest) were suppressed, there may have been some elsewhere that were not? I have always imagined that Old Nan's tales are based on oral history passed down through generations for hundreds/thousands of years - perhaps this is the source. And yet I cannot imagine that an Archmaester of the Citadel would base a scholarly work on fairytales

Oh man, I'm never going to get this quote thing down am I?  Throughout AWOIAF the narrators relate folk tales, rumors, supposition and even gossip.   I imagine TNK is a combination of some of these.   Remember, we are even told about Ice Dragons in AWOIAF!

Thanks for asking about the swords and allowing me to share some of my thoughts with you on them.   I do see this as real endgame stuff and expect most of the swords to find their heroes in TWOW.

[Curled Finger]

7 hours ago, bemused said:

You tempt me back for one last go, today... I'll try to be brief, and only touch on a couple of things because Daario is calling me..

Benjen and wildlings and Mance..
I don't think the bad blood between Benjen and the wildlings is insurmountable. To begin with, there must be a grudging respect between them, and though like Ned, Benjen must have seen them as enemies,but even here there some ambiguity (and possible foreshadowing) when in AGoT, Ned thinks he may have to go north of the wall and "deal with" Mance Rayder.       Damn that's good.

I think Benjen's attitude must have been close to Qhorin's and far from Thoren Smallwood's.. Only fools like Thoren Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong, as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. ...Qhorin, ACoK

With what BJ must have learned on his ranging and the obvious respect between Qhorin, Benjen and Mormont.. no doubt he would have come to Mormont's conclusion (quoted by dame upthread), that the NW had been fighting the wrong enemy.     Excellent point...Benjen is looking like a better LC with every line here...

As for Mance, as early as Jon's wolf dream of Mance's host, we see Mance is trying to bring some of that NW discipline to the free folk ... There were men down in the valley, he saw now; many men, thousands, a huge host. Some were tearing great holes in the half-frozen ground, while others trained for war. He watched as a swarming mass of riders charged a shield wall, astride horses no larger than ants. .. ACoK

Mance calls Jarl Val's pet, Styr calls Jarl Mance's pet . As I said earlier, I definitely think Mance was grooming Jarl for leadership, as in the NW.. and at the same time, trying to provide for his succession, as any king would, in time of war - but for a KBTW, that doesn't mean power passes from father to son. His patronage of Jarl shows care for his people, trying to ensure that what they've gained won't disintegrate at his death.    Perhaps we make far too little of Mance?

I don't think Mance is the kind of leader who "would rather fight than follow". Like Tormund, I think he's willing to take a subordinate role for the common good. He knows that if/when his identity is ever revealed and he is seen to have been acting as counselor to Jon and carrying out Jon's orders, there would be no going back to his former position...(Aside: I don't think he's carrying out Mel's agenda, or at least, only so far as it agrees with his own.)    I'm not 100% sure he's even acting of his own accord with that lousy ruby on him.  

We can assume he must have had more conversations with Jon before leaving CB...And what gave Jon the idea to send Val on her mission for him? Why would Jon entertain the possibility that she could best carry it out? (We can see he's nervous about it) I think he must have been given a suggestion,(without fully revealing Val's true nature, to keep her safe from Mel).   Oh this is great!  

Mance and Benjen have never met, although Mance saw BJ (and took his measure) when he visited WF during Robert's trip north. They may meet at WF in "Winds", and find themselves on the same side.   I will be looking for this with every fiber of my being.

Ygrite and the awareness of the Wall..

I've been focusing on Jarl, but Ygritte really illustrates the same point. I think the wall does try to shake her off... but Jon's feelings for her may overrule it's efforts. "Jon grabbed Ygritte and pulled her down to shield her," .. when Jarl's group fell. Then.. "The Wall defends itself, Jon thought as he pulled Ygritte back to her feet."... At the top, "Ygritte was trembling from the climb. “I almost fell,” she said, with tears in her eyes. “Twice. Thrice. The Wall was trying t’ shake me off, I could feel it.” " 

Ultimately, Ygritte would not have been a suitable match for Jon if he rose to be the leader the Wall needs...OTOH, Val is, because of her obvious, but so far unexplained high position and her abilities. I think she will be to Jon as Dalla was to Mance - "true queen" and "wise woman" (in the vocational sense). I expect this to become much more apparent in TWoW.

Jon thinks Ghost belongs to the old gods and later, spontaneously thinks Val and Ghost look like they belong together.

Of course when Ygritte says, “You know nothing, Jon Snow. This wall is made o’ blood.” , she means because of all the lives it has claimed, but it also can be taken to hint at Stark blood (and perhaps the "blood" of the weirwoods) being an integral part of it's magical construction.

..be right there, Daario...

It is always such a pleasure to read you, bemused.   A constant education.   Link me up to Daario so I can read all about it?

[dornishdame]

14 hours ago, bemused said:

Benjen and wildlings and Mance..
I don't think the bad blood between Benjen and the wildlings is insurmountable. To begin with, there must be a grudging respect between them, and though like Ned, Benjen must have seen them as enemies,but even here there some ambiguity (and possible foreshadowing) when in AGoT, Ned thinks he may have to go north of the wall and "deal with" Mance Rayder.

I think Benjen's attitude must have been close to Qhorin's and far from Thoren Smallwood's.. Only fools like Thoren Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong, as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. ...Qhorin, ACoK

With what BJ must have learned on his ranging and the obvious respect between Qhorin, Benjen and Mormont.. no doubt he would have come to Mormont's conclusion (quoted by dame upthread), that the NW had been fighting the wrong enemy.

I have to agree that Benjen most likely fell into the same category as Qhorin and Mormont. Benjen was a Northerner, and they have a grudging respect for the wildlings and their leaders, regardless of any personal feelings for them. I think Qhorin would have definitely been on the same page as Benjen -

"Skinchanger?" said Ebben grimly, looking at the Halfhand. Does he mean the eagle? Jon wondered. Or me? Skinchangers and wargs belonged in Old Nan's stories, not in the world he had lived in all his life. Yet here, in this strange bleak wilderness of rock and ice, it was not hard to believe.

"The cold winds are rising. Mormont feared as much. Benjen Stark felt it as well. Dead men walk and the trees have eyes again. Why should we balk at wargs and giants?"

"Does this mean my dreams are true as well?" asked Squire Dalbridge. "Lord Snow can keep his mammoths, I want my women." (Jon VII in Clash)

This exchange occurs just after Jon has told Qhorin and his men of the vision he saw as Ghost. Qhorin and his men clearly identify Jon as a warg and skinchanger, and Qhorin goes further to say that Benjen understood who their true enemy was - the Others. He recognized the rise of the marching dead. Hardly Thoren Smallwood territory. 

Given your impressions of Mance/Jarl, I wonder what you think of Mormont and his desire to groom his successor? Sam clearly thinks this is why Jon was selected by Mormont as his personal steward, and if we consider the importance of the Stark at the Wall - timed as it is following the disappearance of Benjen, whom I believe was Mormont's favored candidate. 

The old man warmed his hands before the fire. "I sent Benjen Stark to search after Yohn Royce's son, lost on his first ranging. The Royce boy was green as summer grass, yet he insisted on the honor of his own command, saying it was his due as a knight. I did not wish to offend his lord father, so I yielded. I sent him out with two men I deemed as good as any in the Watch. More fool I."

"Fool," the raven agreed. Tyrion glanced up. The bird peered down at him with those beady black eyes, ruffling its wings. "Fool," it called again. Doubtless old Mormont would take it amiss if he throttled the creature. A pity.

The Lord Commander took no notice of the irritating bird. "Gared was near as old as I am and longer on the Wall," he went on, "yet it would seem he forswore himself and fled. I should never have believed it, not of him, but Lord Eddard sent me his head from Winterfell. Of Royce, there is no word. One deserter and two men lost, and now Ben Stark too has gone missing." He sighed deeply. "Who am I to send searching after him? In two years I will be seventy. Too old and too weary for the burden I bear, yet if I set it down, who will pick it up? Alliser Thorne? Bowen Marsh? I would have to be as blind as Maester Aemon not to see what they are. The Night's Watch has become an army of sullen boys and tired old men. Apart from the men at my table tonight, I have perhaps twenty who can read, and even fewer who can think, or plan, or lead. Once the Watch spent its summers building, and each Lord Commander raised the Wall higher than he found it. Now it is all we can do to stay alive." (Tyrion III in Thrones)

Aside from an indictment on the current state of the Watch, Mormont's speech to Tyrion shows that he understands what the men under his command are. He knows that Thorne is petty and easy to take offence; he knows that Marsh is a counter rather than a fighter (even Dolorous Edd knows that). He gave Ser Waymar a chance because of his name and bloodline - from a family that still remembered to send sons to the Watch; Ser Waymar was lost. Mormont is clearly worried about who will succeed him, and I think he had identified the now-missing Benjen as the man for the job. That, combined with Jon speaking up for Sam in the way he did with Maester Aemon may indicate why attention shifted to Jon. Another son of Winterfell - the Stark at the Wall. 

15 hours ago, bemused said:

As for Mance, as early as Jon's wolf dream of Mance's host, we see Mance is trying to bring some of that NW discipline to the free folk ... There were men down in the valley, he saw now; many men, thousands, a huge host. Some were tearing great holes in the half-frozen ground, while others trained for war. He watched as a swarming mass of riders charged a shield wall, astride horses no larger than ants. .. ACoK

Mance calls Jarl Val's pet, Styr calls Jarl Mance's pet . As I said earlier, I definitely think Mance was grooming Jarl for leadership, as in the NW.. and at the same time, trying to provide for his succession, as any king would, in time of war - but for a KBTW, that doesn't mean power passes from father to son. His patronage of Jarl shows care for his people, trying to ensure that what they've gained won't disintegrate at his death.

I don't think Mance is the kind of leader who "would rather fight than follow". Like Tormund, I think he's willing to take a subordinate role for the common good. He knows that if/when his identity is ever revealed and he is seen to have been acting as counselor to Jon and carrying out Jon's orders, there would be no going back to his former position...(Aside: I don't think he's carrying out Mel's agenda, or at least, only so far as it agrees with his own.)

We can assume he must have had more conversations with Jon before leaving CB...And what gave Jon the idea to send Val on her mission for him? Why would Jon entertain the possibility that she could best carry it out? (We can see he's nervous about it) I think he must have been given a suggestion,(without fully revealing Val's true nature, to keep her safe from Mel).

Mance and Benjen have never met, although Mance saw BJ (and took his measure) when he visited WF during Robert's trip north. They may meet at WF in "Winds", and find themselves on the same side.

Mance, I agree, is about ensuring his people get south of the Wall. If that means being subordinate to Jon, then I think he would be willing to do that in the same way Tormund gave way to Mance and his authority when challenged. Of course, we do not know what Mance's opinion of Jon is. I don't think he entirely trusts him at present, but he will have understood that Jon gave mercy to the man who he believed was Mance. And that if he antagonizes Jon while at Winterfell then he places his son's life in danger. I do wonder what his reaction will be when he discovers that Jon has sent his son south. 

Aside from anything else, I wonder what Varamyr said to Mance about Jon. We have this section from the Dance Prologue:

When he claimed the eagle that had been Orell's, he could feel the other skinchanger raging at his presence. Orell had been slain by the turncloak crow Jon Snow, and his hate for his killer had been so strong that Varamyr found himself hating the beastling boy as well. He had known what Snow was the moment he saw that great white direwolf stalking silent at his side. One skinchanger can always sense another. Mance should have let me take the direwolf. There would be a second life worthy of a king. He could have done it, he did not doubt. The gift was strong in Snow, but the youth was untaught, still fighting his nature when he should have gloried in it.

So, we know that Varamyr knew how strong Jon's abilities were (though Jon himself was unaware of the extent of them) - and that he spoke to Mance about Ghost. What else did he tell Mance, and how does that impact Mance's opinion of him in terms of his ability to lead people against the Others? Jon's POV chapters in Storm show the wildlings openly discussing Jon-the-warg. And Jon's first POV chapter shows that wargs are not as feared among the wildlings:

"That sounds more like me," said Tormund. "Well met, Jon Snow. I am fond o' wargs, as it happens, though not o' Starks." (Jon I in Storm)

I also agree that Mance is only sticking with Melisandre as long as it suits him. And there is something incredibly creepy about that ruby he wears. I hate the idea of her being able to control people like that. 

16 hours ago, bemused said:

Ygrite and the awareness of the Wall..

I've been focusing on Jarl, but Ygritte really illustrates the same point. I think the wall does try to shake her off... but Jon's feelings for her may overrule it's efforts. "Jon grabbed Ygritte and pulled her down to shield her," .. when Jarl's group fell. Then.. "The Wall defends itself, Jon thought as he pulled Ygritte back to her feet."... At the top, "Ygritte was trembling from the climb. “I almost fell,” she said, with tears in her eyes. “Twice. Thrice. The Wall was trying t’ shake me off, I could feel it.” " 

Ultimately, Ygritte would not have been a suitable match for Jon if he rose to be the leader the Wall needs...OTOH, Val is, because of her obvious, but so far unexplained high position and her abilities. I think she will be to Jon as Dalla was to Mance - "true queen" and "wise woman" (in the vocational sense). I expect this to become much more apparent in TWoW.

Jon thinks Ghost belongs to the old gods and later, spontaneously thinks Val and Ghost look like they belong together.

Of course when Ygritte says, “You know nothing, Jon Snow. This wall is made o’ blood.” , she means because of all the lives it has claimed, but it also can be taken to hint at Stark blood (and perhaps the "blood" of the weirwoods) being an integral part of it's magical construction.

The Mormont quote from Tyrion III in Thrones above highlights that in the past, the LC increased the height of the Wall. This would have included the Stark boy commanders that Sam tells Jon about in Feast. So we have yet another link between the Starks and the Wall. I am starting to think about these links more and more. And am becoming further convinced of the need for a Stark at the Wall. 

There is a sense of a human element to the Wall, that it thinks and feels - nice catch on Ygritte. I had not considered Jon's feelings for her saving her life in this way. Long term, I agree that Val is more of a match for him. Perhaps Ygritte challenged him a bit too much? And she did not have the political clout with the free folk that Jon is going to need moving forward. I do think that Jon is instinctively more comfortable with Val than he was with Ygritte at first, before he got to know her, but that could be a result of him spending a prolonged period around Ygritte. At Winterfell, Jon lived in a martial atmosphere among soldiers and had limited contact with women. From there, he moved on to an all-male military fraternity in the Night's Watch. His time with Ygritte is the first time Jon is exposed to constantly having a woman around him (I'm not counting Arya and Sansa or Old Nan in this; they are family and the family servant). 

Val is associated with the Old Gods and weirwoods for Jon, and he associates Ghost with those things too. I also wonder if part of him stating that Ghost and Val belonged together was a way of disassociating himself from something he wants. Remember, Dance is where Jon really starts to get wolf dreams and to feel that Ghost is part of him. Instead of saying he felt he and Val belonged together, he says Ghost and Val belong together. And yet....Ghost is part of Jon. 

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Dame, for brevity's sake, I'm just going for the highlights...

"The younger four all being sons, brothers, or bastards of the King in the North. Tell me something useful. Tell me of our enemy." (Sam I in Feast)   

Did you notice that these are direct father to son relations?  No cousins or uncles, though I tend to think of Benjen more as Ned's brother than Jon's uncle...Ned was the last Stark who really held WF.   Yeah, there is something here and it is a straight line.  

You make an excellent point - one I have to admit that I had not picked up on. As I stated above, I am becoming more and more convinced of the importance of the Stark at the Wall. I do not believe there has constantly been one. Perhaps they are pulled there more forcefully when they are needed. If we look at the Stark family tree in TWOIAF, and read the section on the Starks, there are clearly times when the family tree has been cut down and male heirs were lacking. At these times, I think there was probably a hesitation towards it. But when heirs were plentiful and the need at the Wall great, I think this was always the fallback option for Starks in the same way as most southron families would send excess heirs to the Citadel, or to the Faith. I would also love to know just how many Lord Commanders have been Starks or Snows (specifically Snows that came from Starks). Sam only mentions those who became LC younger than Jon. But the existence of these four indicates a tendency to elect a Stark. 

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

They had descended the south face of the Wall at Greyguard, abandoned for two hundred years. A section of the huge stone steps had collapsed a century before, but even so the descent was a good deal easier than the climb. (Jon V in Storm)

Perhaps the Nightfort was not the only castle abandoned not long after the visit of King Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne to Winterfell. Which, of course, raises the question of which forts were still manned at this time, and were they all abandoned save the three Jon tells us of? And the question of why they were abandoned. Was it lack of money and men? At a time when the Targaryen King had arranged for more land to be given to the Watch?    I have driven myself to distraction with the castles along the Wall.   Effective end of ADWD, there are only 2 unmanned and the Nightfort without inhabitants.  A battle between 2 castles along the Wall would deplete garrisons while the rest wither from disuse.   The castles are perhaps the best illustration of how far afield the NW has come from it's original purpose.   Still, the Queen's visit changed things--many things and I'm sure there is something to this as she is referred to far too often for this visit not to have been very important.  

I really need to go back and re-read Dance again and take notes on Jon's reinstatement of the Night's Watch castles. I want notes on who mans each! I think it could be important going forward. I have spoken before about the idea of the Wall being breached at the end of Winds, but not necessarily collapsing completely. If that is the case, I will need to think more about where this would take place, and if it is near one of the manned castles. 

I am now wondering more and more about when the other castles were abandoned and what exactly happened to cause this. For the Nightfort, the size of the Watch and castle and the cost of upkeep is fair enough. How soon was it after the visit of King Jaehaerys and Queen Alysanne that these castles were closed and numbers of Night's Watchmen dwindled? Was it a result of noble deaths during the Dance? I will need to look back at it more, and try to come up with some theories!!

I know that the Starks did resent giving the extra land away - 

Whether anti-Targaryen feelings were made worse by Queen Rhaenys Targaryen's efforts to knit together the new, single realm with marriages between the great houses is left to the reader to consider. That Torrhen Stark's daughter was wed to the young and ill-fated Lord of the Vale is wellknown; it was one of the many peace- binding marriages forged by Rhaenys. But there are letters preserved at the Citadel suggesting that Stark accepted these arrangements only after much protest, and that the bride's brothers refused to attend the wedding entirely.

Later still, it was said that the Starks were bitter at the Old King and Queen Alysanne for having forced them to carve away the New Gift and give it the Night's Watch; this may be one reason for why Lord Ellard Stark sided with Corlys Velaryon and Princess Rhaenys at the Great Council of 101 AC. (TWOIAF)

Perhaps this resulted in fewer men going North? We know that the Lannisters stop sending men to the Wall as a result of Robb's fight for independence. 

Tyrion remembered his own visit to the Wall, and the crabs he'd shared with old Lord Mormont and his officers. He remembered the Old Bear's fears as well. "Perhaps we might break the knees of a few to make our point. Those who killed Ser Jacelyn, say. The rest we can send to Marsh. The Watch is grievously under strength. If the Wall should fail . . ."

". . . the wildlings will flood the north," his father finished, "and the Starks and Greyjoys will have another enemy to contend with. They no longer wish to be subject to the Iron Throne, it would seem, so by what right do they look to the Iron Throne for aid? King Robb and King Balon both claim the north. Let them defend it, if they can. And if not, this Mance Rayder might even prove a useful ally." (Tyrion III in Storm)

And later, in Feast, Cersei gives Aurane Waters leave to take men for his new Naval forces instead of them being sent to the Wall as was previously the case. 

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Poor Robb had no idea, did he? 

While the Stark children have clearly heard stories of Mance Rayder, the King-Beyond-the-Wall, I don't think Robb ever thought of going to meet him in battle the way that Ned clearly considered. As I said before, this seemed a possibility until Robert's offer of the Handship turned Ned's attention southward. From that point, throughout Robb's tenure as Lord of Winterfell and King in the North, his focus is on the south and fighting the Lannisters. He doesn't experience the world beyond the Wall as Jon does, nor get to know and understand the wildlings as people in a way Jon does. If Benjen told anyone of his concerns during his visit to Winterfell, it was Ned, not Robb. 

Osha does try to convince him, however.

"Are there truly giants beyond the Wall?" he asked Osha, uncertainly.

"Giants and worse than giants, Lordling. I tried to tell your brother when he asked his questions, him and your maester and that smiley boy Greyjoy. The cold winds are rising, and men go out from their fires and never come back … or if they do, they're not men no more, but only wights, with blue eyes and cold black hands. Why do you think I run south with Stiv and Hali and the rest of them fools? Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He's never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her and her mother before her, born of the Free Folk. We remember." Osha stood, her chains rattling together. "I tried to tell your lordling brother. Only yesterday, when I saw him in the yard. 'M'lord Stark,' I called to him, respectful as you please, but he looked through me, and that sweaty oaf Greatjon Umber shoves me out of the path. So be it. I'll wear my irons and hold my tongue. A man who won't listen can't hear." (Bran VI in Thrones)

Robb doesn't have Jon's first-hand experience and I doubt he has ever seen the Wall. Jon doesn't seem to have seen it before, and I am sure if Ned went to Castle Black to visit Benjen, he either took both boys with him or neither. He may have been King in the North in name, but I think Jon will come to be King in the North in reality. He will be a true King of Winter. Of course, what Robb fails to understand is that things end badly for Starks when they go south. 

 

10 hours ago, Curled Finger said:I would love to hear more of this - though I am a bit more concerned about the 12 companions as I am sure the 12 companions of the Last Hero died? Maybe you can correct me on that score. I have seen theories that those Bran encountered between leaving the crypts at Winterfell and reaching the cave will die. The idea that they will all have swords is intriguing - or do you mean a different 12 companions/helpers? Sorry - very tired at this point and brain therefore very much not in gear! Either way - which companions and swords do you have matched thus far?    Ha!   We never actually leave the topic!  Yes, I expect they will all die which is why I can't in good conscience put Hodor among them.   I have to figure out if Bran will be THERE or if he will remotely lead through Hodor.   Yes, I've read all those theories and they are fascinating.   I still believe the swords will find heroes and all head North.   The reasons are pretty simple.   There were 12 swords, 11 in Westeros and curiously 1 in Lys listed over and over again as the Westerosi VS swords.   2 of the swords are missing, Lamentation, the Royce AS which was lost in the dragon pit at the end of the DOD, and Bright Roar, the Lannister sword.   They are listed as absolutely missing as in gone.  The remaining 10 swords are either accounted for or presumed to be accounted for.   Though no one actually knows where Orphan Maker, Jonathon Roxton's sword, is we do know it was lost at the 2nd Battle of Tumbledon in the DOD.  The 1st sword we come to is destroyed to make voila! 2 more VS swords and even replace the missing Lannister sword.  The math is absolutely there for the reemergence of the swords.   Why bother making Ice into 2 swords if not to make 12 swords for a very specific purpose?   So yes, 12 different hero companions with the right weaponry to obliterate the Others. 

 

Starting to make more sense to me now, although I seem to have somehow messed up the quote function....

10 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I understand your logic here and it makes a certain sense.   When you put Blackfyre or Dark Sister in the hands of anyone their Targness will become suspect as the bastards or pretenders were the last known possessors of these blades and they wrought a great deal of dissention.   Even DS, which will be indelibly linked to BR.   DS has a bad reputation--all though it almost calls Arya by name, it's still heavily associated with BR and dark magic.  When Aegon busts out with Blackfyre you can collect on all the bets you made that he is a Blackfyre not a Targ and not a Pisswater Prince.  

You make a good point about the size of the swords. That said, I have become very attached to the idea of Jon wielding this sword, so it will take a lot for me to give it up! I know Bloodraven was the last owner of the sword, but other prominent Targaryens did too - including Aemon the Dragonknight. Given the parallels between The Young Wolf and The Young Dragon (young kings who tried to take a southern Kingdom and won on the battlefield only to lose - in very different ways - in a bedchamber) and that The Young Dragon was first cousin to the Dragonknight as The Young Wolf is first cousin to Jon......and that Jon calls out the Dragonknight's name when playing at swords with Robb.....I really think there is something there with Jon and Dark Sister. 

Every morning they had trained together, since they were big enough to walk; Snow and Stark, spinning and slashing about the wards of Winterfell, shouting and laughing, sometimes crying when there was no one else to see. They were not little boys when they fought, but knights and mighty heroes. "I'm Prince Aemon the Dragonknight," Jon would call out, and Robb would shout back, "Well, I'm Florian the Fool." Or Robb would say, "I'm the Young Dragon," and Jon would reply, "I'm Ser Ryam Redwyne." (Jon XII in Storm)

If you haven't seen it, I thoroughly recommend that you check out the History of Westeros episode on Dark Sister. An illuminating take on the history of the sword......it isn't just associated with Bloodraven, I promise!

That said, I think that if anyone other than Jon wields the sword, Arya is a great candidate. Someone that truly lives up to the name of the sword! As far as Blackfyre is concerned, I agree that Aegon has it.

10 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

The other connected to Targs VS sword is Truth which was the AS of the Rogare family of Lys.   Larra (?) Rogare was the mother of Aegon The Unworthy.  This is a Lysenni sword listed repeatedly as a Westerosi sword.  Was it part of her dowry?  Is it still in Lys?  A really cool connection Lady Blizzardborn shared with me once that was Dany would find Truth per Quaithe's advice.   Not saying it's going to come down that way, but I sure like it to fulfill Dany's promise to Jorah.  

So my heroes thus far are Brienne and Meera.  I was convinced Asha would take her mother's family AS, Nightfall (it's only a longsword) but I'm really on the fence about it.   Theon can wield it no problem and he may even have to in order to pay once and for all for his crimes.   I could go on for days and nights about all the swords and potential hero companions, but you would have to love the swords as much as I do to really experience the nerdfest.  I will leave you with the last bit of key information about the swords, their locations.   As part of our ongoing Merging StoryLines topic, match these swords to the hero and kill them off...

There are 2, possibly 3 (Tumbledon is in the Reach) in The Reach.   Who will Sam give Heartsbane to?   Will Eruon somehow claim the Hightower sword, Vigillance?   Where is Orphan Maker?

There are 2 on the II, the Harlaw sword, Nightfall and the Drumm sword, Red Rain.  (This doesn't bode well for our favorite reaving community does it?)

Long Claw is at the Wall.  Widows Wail is in KL. Lady Forlorn is in the Vale.   LSH has OK in the RL. Blackfyre is probably with Aegon in the Stormlands. DS is most likely in the cave with BR

Wow! You have clearly thought a lot about this, and next time I do a re-read I will be looking out for VS swords everywhere! You say you think Sam will give Heartsbane to someone - do you see Randyll handing over the sword to his son...the sword previously denied to him? I have a crackpot-ish hope that Randyll will be served karmic justice in Winds - that he will defect to Aegon (the Reach stayed loyal to the Targaryens to the end, after all, and while Mace gets more out of a Tommen/Margaery set-up, that doesn't mean his fellow Reachmen will stay onside with him) only to find out that he is fake, but there is a son of Rhaegar still out there - the best friend of the son he thought useless! Crackpot and I don't think it would happen. But I think Randyll deserves some comeback on the way he has treated Sam!

I will spend some time going through the locations and matching them to last-known locations of characters nearby. 

[Curled Finger]

14 hours ago, dornishdame said:

I also agree that Mance is only sticking with Melisandre as long as it suits him. And there is something incredibly creepy about that ruby he wears. I hate the idea of her being able to control people like that.   There seems to be a ruby controlling Mel herself, so I'm of the mind that Rh'llor or whomever controls the rubies is really the one in charge of this particular magic.  My thoughts wander off to the theories about Mel being undead when it gets down to the rubies.    There is something there but I don't know enough about it to piece it together.

Val is associated with the Old Gods and weirwoods for Jon, and he associates Ghost with those things too. I also wonder if part of him stating that Ghost and Val belonged together was a way of disassociating himself from something he wants. Remember, Dance is where Jon really starts to get wolf dreams and to feel that Ghost is part of him. Instead of saying he felt he and Val belonged together, he says Ghost and Val belong together. And yet....Ghost is part of Jon.   I have so steadfastly avoided shipping any of the characters except maybe Sam & Gilly who are just so sweet in my estimation.   I admit I've been purposefully blind to some pretty clear pair ups. Honestly, I will have to look into this more with the intention of seeing the pairings to get a better handle on it.  

I really need to go back and re-read Dance again and take notes on Jon's reinstatement of the Night's Watch castles. I want notes on who mans each! I think it could be important going forward. I have spoken before about the idea of the Wall being breached at the end of Winds, but not necessarily collapsing completely. If that is the case, I will need to think more about where this would take place, and if it is near one of the manned castles.  It's the manning of the castles that gives me a bit of hope that the Others won't be so successful.   My thinking is that if X clan has taken up residence at X castle perhaps the remaining community will join their families and neighbors in the new place.   They seem to travel in packs and many dispersed when Stannis showed up.   The Wildlings are an enormous resource in this fight.   I hope there is steady flow of immigrants to all the castles for the North's sake

I am now wondering more and more about when the other castles were abandoned and what exactly happened to cause this. For the Nightfort, the size of the Watch and castle and the cost of upkeep is fair enough. How soon was it after the visit of King Jaehaerys and Queen Alysanne that these castles were closed and numbers of Night's Watchmen dwindled? Was it a result of noble deaths during the Dance? I will need to look back at it more, and try to come up with some theories!!  I will be standing by for your findings and report any to you that I find along the way.

I know that the Starks did resent giving the extra land away - 

Whether anti-Targaryen feelings were made worse by Queen Rhaenys Targaryen's efforts to knit together the new, single realm with marriages between the great houses is left to the reader to consider. That Torrhen Stark's daughter was wed to the young and ill-fated Lord of the Vale is well known; it was one of the many peace- binding marriages forged by Rhaenys. But there are letters preserved at the Citadel suggesting that Stark accepted these arrangements only after much protest, and that the bride's brothers refused to attend the wedding entirely.

Later still, it was said that the Starks were bitter at the Old King and Queen Alysanne for having forced them to carve away the New Gift and give it the Night's Watch; this may be one reason for why Lord Ellard Stark sided with Corlys Velaryon and Princess Rhaenys at the Great Council of 101 AC. (TWOIAF)

Perhaps this resulted in fewer men going North? We know that the Lannisters stop sending men to the Wall as a result of Robb's fight for independence.    I won't believe it until I hear it from a Stark.  

You make a good point about the size of the swords. That said, I have become very attached to the idea of Jon wielding this sword, so it will take a lot for me to give it up! I know Bloodraven was the last owner of the sword, but other prominent Targaryens did too - including Aemon the Dragonknight. Given the parallels between The Young Wolf and The Young Dragon (young kings who tried to take a southern Kingdom and won on the battlefield only to lose - in very different ways - in a bedchamber) and that The Young Dragon was first cousin to the Dragonknight as The Young Wolf is first cousin to Jon......and that Jon calls out the Dragonknight's name when playing at swords with Robb.....I really think there is something there with Jon and Dark Sister.  And you may be absolutely right as there is that question of what Jon's Targ name would have been since he was to represent Visenya.  Stay with me a minute on this...I propose everything that is wrong in Westeros began with the Doom of Valyria and worsened with whatever that catastrophe at Hardhome was.  Whatever magic bound the Others weakened or broke entirely and they've been quietly reasserting themselves since.  It seems to me that the Valyrians had some understanding of what these catastrophes would cause and consciously went about providing some counter measure to the damage with the advent of the Valyrian Sword.  I'm not even sure the noble houses who originally had the swords bought them.   We are told they are priceless, but that doesn't tell anyone what they paid for them.   And these are interesting houses that possessed them, Targs, Mormonts, Hightowers, Starks, Lannisters, Tarlys, Roxtons, Corbrays, Royces, Harlaws, Reynes and the like.  "A mountain of gold" describes their value, not the price paid.  There has been an effort on GRRM's part to ensure that 12 swords remained in play in the beginning and at the end of his game in Westeros.   Not devices like Dawn, but cold, hard VS.  I am of the mind that the VS is transient and won't be needed after they fulfill their purpose any more than the heroes will be needed.   This is why I studiously avoid even giving Jon a sword.  Oh he's on the list of heroes, but I expect him to live which sort of excludes him from the party.   I'm not saying he won't have DS at some point and that it may be vastly important for the time he has it.   I just don't expect him to keep it or use it for what it's meant to do.  

If you haven't seen it, I thoroughly recommend that you check out the History of Westeros episode on Dark Sister. An illuminating take on the history of the sword......it isn't just associated with Bloodraven, I promise!  I have seen it, but don't need a reason to listen to HOW, they are great no matter how many times you listen.  

That said, I think that if anyone other than Jon wields the sword, Arya is a great candidate. Someone that truly lives up to the name of the sword! As far as Blackfyre is concerned, I agree that Aegon has it.  Everyone likes Arya for DS, that's sort of why I enjoy the twist of Meera having it.   As I say, it's all about the size of the weapon, not the magic in it where our tiny little heroines are concerned. And I do think Widows Wail is a smaller sword not unlike DS.  

Wow! You have clearly thought a lot about this, and next time I do a re-read I will be looking out for VS swords everywhere! I hated this story so much the 1st time I read it, it really was the puzzle of the swords that made me come back.

You say you think Sam will give Heartsbane to someone - do you see Randyll handing over the sword to his son...the sword previously denied to him? I have a crackpot-ish hope that Randyll will be served karmic justice in Winds - that he will defect to Aegon (the Reach stayed loyal to the Targaryens to the end, after all, and while Mace gets more out of a Tommen/Margaery set-up, that doesn't mean his fellow Reachmen will stay onside with him) only to find out that he is fake, but there is a son of Rhaegar still out there - the best friend of the son he thought useless! Crackpot and I don't think it would happen. But I think Randyll deserves some comeback on the way he has treated Sam!  Yah, Old Man Tarly has a thing or 2 coming his way and don't forget his famous words to our Brienne, either.   He's a dirt bag. Sam giving Heartsbane away is twofold:  I can't see him really being able to use it and I expect him to live to the end, maybe have his own mini series.   Heartsbane is a big sword so a seriously skilled hulk will need to command it.   I know Sam is brave and has earned his nick name.   I just don't see him as part of this quest on the road.  Sam has more than enough to do without going Ice Zombie hunting.  

I will spend some time going through the locations and matching them to last-known locations of characters nearby. Check your message place.   I will send you the spreadsheet.   It's constantly changing, but contains the most basic info I thought important enough to type out.  

Thanks for indulging me Dame.   You got me all excited about the castles again, so I think that may be worth a spreadsheet too.   I will let you know what I discover!  

[The Sword of the Evening]

On 2/20/2016 at 1:28 PM, Curled Finger said:

Welcome SOTE.  Because so much is recently bandied about regarding Dawn, how did you settle on your screenname?   I only recently found a reference to SOTE and found it fascinating.  And you're organized.   The only location I could question is Aeron as I believe he is MIA last we didn't hear.  It's really interesting you didn't list Cat as deceased but gave her a presence in the RL.   I never understood this LSH thing but then again Cat is the character I least enjoy.  bemused has a really interesting idea for why this creature has continued in our story which merges many characters in the Vale and RL and offers a most unexpected future for a major character.   Check it out upthread if you haven't yet had a chance.  It's my feeling that the story needs to get down to 3 major plots by the end of TWOW, TPTWP, AA & TLH.   Yes I know I'm insane, but this is how I see it.   These are the big quests so I am trying to put all our (13 +/-) characters in 1 of these 3 stories.   It's all I can do to merge or kill any POV.   If for example Jon is TPTWP he will need a certain number of supporters where if he ends up being TLH he will definitely require 12 companions.   If Dany is AA, she will require another several key players to aid her in fulfilling the role. (Before anyone freaks out, I specifically wrote IF and these are only examples, not true hypothesis!!!)  TWOW will have to set all of it up.   Any more specific thoughts on the matter, SOTE? I have to ask if you see Theon and Asha remaining on the mainland instead of returning to the Iron Islands?   Thanks for organizing the characters where we last left them and offering your thoughts on the matters. 

To be honest I combined Sword of the Morning and Shade of the Evening and thought it sounded pretty cool.

I agree that Aeron is technically MIA, but I assume he is still somewhere on the Iron Islands (here's to hoping we get his unreleased chapter with the "seriously twisted stuff" before Season 6 premier, although I doubt we get any new chapters).

I would love it if GRRM was able to get it down to 3 major plot points by the end of TWOW, but at his current pace I don't know how that happens. I could easily see him needing an 8th book to complete the series.

Regarding Theon/Asha, there has been a lot of foreshadowing to the fact that Theon wasn't present for the kingsmoot and therefore he could return and claim his right as king, but I think Stannis has to execute him in front of the Heart Tree in order to appease the North. Bran could possibly intervene, if you read Theon's sample chapter for TWOW, you will see the beginning of this plotline.

Sorry for the delayed response, I don't get on here as much as I used to. I think I have read most of the bigger theories by now, but still check back here and there.

I think using a list like the one I made is a good reference point for going into TWOW, but many of the characters will move. George does need to start combining story lines as he starts to wind his story down.