R+L=J v.156

[purple-eyes]

I think show will simply tell us that rhaegar and lyanna fell in love so they eloped together. 

That is it. 

They are not the show's main concern. 

They do not even have an adult lyanna next season for TOJ. 

[Lord Varys]

SFDanny,

Aerys would be a good reason for Rhaegar to keep stuff secret, but the problem there is that the abduction of Lyanna itself could already bring the wrath of the king on him, resulting in him being disinherited, exiled, or executed should his father have his way. If Rhaegar goes as far as risk that - and we know that he did - I see little reason for him to not go through with the whole thing. Somehow he was able to reconcile with his father when he returned, or else he wouldn't have led the Targaryen army. If Aerys felt he needed him - which may or may not have been the case - he could certainly have decided to ignore Rhaegar's second marriage if he wanted to. He certainly ignored Rhaegar's continued absence as well as his abduction of Lyanna.

Not to mention that we have as of yet not been given any reason why Rhaegar and Lyanna hid and from whom. We don't know whether they did so of their own free will or whether they were forced to do so because Aerys had put prices on their heads, or something like that. Hell, we don't even know whether they hid at all. Just that nobody could find them.

In light of the fact that Rhaegar most likely did not intend or think that his actions would eventually cause a rebellion (else he most likely wouldn't have abducted Lyanna), and if he happened to marry Lyanna shortly/immediately after the abduction (which would be the best guess, I think) there would be little reason for him to keep it a secret at this point.

Robert cannot really make such a weird distinction between Lyanna the innocent victim and Lyanna's rape child, especially not if Lyanna survived whatever the Lannisters did to her son and spat it into his face that she was in love with Rhaegar, happily married to, and very happy to be rid of him. Part of the reason why Robert can build and nurture his 'Targaryen hatred' is because nobody challenges him on that - especially not Ned. If Ned would hammer the fact home that Lyanna never loved Robert but had been madly in love with Rhaegar, and was not raped by him but gladly fucked him all day long, then this whole hatred would have long crumbled and had given way to the sadness beneath it (which always shows up when Robert grows angry in AGoT).

Robert can only cling to his hate because he tricks himself into believing - or chooses to believe - that Rhaegar mistreated and raped Lyanna.

I'm with you that Ned most certainly believed that Lyanna's legitimate child would be in danger from the Lannisters and that Robert might not step in to protect the child. But that is based mostly on Ned's false assessment of Lannister motivation. Tywin didn't hate Rhaegar's children, possibly not even Aerys, he just needed to prove his allegiance to the Rebellion in such an impressive way that would enable him to play a major role in post-war politics. Tywin essentially ensured that Robert would marry Cersei by the Sack. Had he just sat out the war, Robert would never have married Cersei. And Ned also has no clue what led to Jaime murdering Aerys, but he most likely believes that Tywin and Jaime planned the deed together because they are power-hungry and evil.

The Lannisters would have no good reason to target any child of Lyanna's, even if it was a legitimate son of Rhaegar's. That wouldn't be their concern, and them taking a side in such an internal rebel quarrel could easily lead to them being thrown out of their circle (note how neither Cersei/Jaime/Tywin ever once think about or mention Aerys' surviving children in the whole series - Cersei doesn't seem to have an opinion on the danger Viserys or Dany might pose to her children). Tywin and Jaime weren't suddenly in charge or influential just because Robert didn't punish them for their part in the murder of the Targaryens. And even after the marriage between Cersei and Robert the Lannister position at court wouldn't have been all that strong for years considering that Jon Arryn and Stannis were running the show. Even at the beginning of the series there are no Lannister cronies on the Small Council aside from Pycelle.

Therefore my guess is that Ned's fear was mostly based on his assessment of the Lannisters in combination with Robert's hatred/indifference. But in addition we have also to keep in mind that once Ned had brought Lyanna's child safely to Winterfell there would be no way how Robert could easily demand or arrange the death of the child without risking a war and his own throne. Ned was Jon Arryn's ward, too, and he married to Hoster Tully's eldest daughter, not Robert. Robert could not have possibly hoped to win or even wage a war against the North. Neither Jon nor Hoster would have helped. Not to mention that he would never have done that to his best friend. Robert's love to Ned always wins in the books, and even Ned's worst fears don't seem to imagine Robert as a cruel guy who actually wanted to see Ned's nephew dead, his fears always are that Robert just might not step in to prevent that other people would do such evil deeds.

In that sense I really can't see Ned being as being really that afraid of Robert - especially not of the Robert back fifteen years ago who apparently wasn't the moral wreck we meet in AGoT.

Starfall:

Well, we actually don't know why and how Edric Dayne believes Wylla is Jon Snow's mother, no? There is no evidence that his source was gossip, and even if it was, then we don't know how that gossip came about. Lyanna delivering her child at Starfall could have been a non-issue if people had been successfully convinced that she delivered a stillborn child. Conveniently Ashara Dayne supposedly delivered a stillborn daughter, so there might have been a dead infant ready to pose as Lyanna's child. After all, we don't know when exactly Ashara became pregnant and when she delivered. Harrenhal is just a guess for the former.

Not to mention that Edric would have received his information years later, possibly from people who weren't there or who wanted him to believe a certain story. And if Ned Stark never arrived with a child at Starfall, then it might have been able for him to leave with a child unnoticed (if he ever took the child himself - he could just have had it shipped up north from Starfall). All Wylla - whoever she is - has to do is to spread the word that she is the mother of Ned Stark's bastard. Of course that would demand that she did not leave at Starfall prior to Ned arriving there, but this has to be the case in any scenario in which she claims or does not contradict any rumors that she is the boy's mother.

Pretty much nothing Ned seems to be doing after the knights were dead doesn't make much sense. The destruction of the tower, the burials, how he handled Lyanna's corpse, etc. In fact, I'd very much prefer it if George revealed that Jon Snow never was at Starfall if Ned found him at the tower. The idea that he could cross the Sands of Dorne with an infant and Howland and possibly some adventurous wetnurse doesn't convince me at all. It would have been much safer if he had handed the child to Howland and charged him keeping it safe in some nearby village or something.

Rhaenys,

Benjen certainly could know stuff, too. He certainly knows more about Lyanna's secrets than Ned.

The Howland idea is that Aerys commands to find the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Rhaegar's investigation would first lead him to the knights the Knight defeated, then to the squires, and from the squires to ... Howland Reed. Howland would then, presumably, point him to Lyanna after Rhaegar had accused him of being the Knight. We don't know yet whether Howland was aware of what Lyanna did, but he may have been able to guess the truth considering that he knew he wasn't the Knight himself.

Benjen may have helped Lyanna to acquire armor and all, but he wouldn't necessarily have caught Rhaegar's eye during the investigation, and may subsequently not have witnessed/learned what happened between Rhaegar and Lyanna firsthand. At least the stuff that happened at the tourney. But Howland might. He may actually not only be a witness of the tower of joy stuff but also the witness of the beginning of the whole love story/affair.

And I still think that Howland's role in saving Ned's life from Ser Arthur might be connected to all that. Say, Arthur being unable to actually kill/attack Howland because of his history with Rhaegar, or Howland saying stuff that caused Arthur to change his mind.

By the time of the Trident Howland certainly would have been able to share his knowledge with Ned. Benjen would have been able to do that much earlier, but if he did one really, really wonders why Ned had not told Robert as soon as he know that he wasn't going to do anything about Rhaegar? Why didn't he try to make a peace with him? After all, the Starks main issues were with Aerys, not Rhaegar, and while Robert was just some guy Ned had no reason to care about his wrath or his anger one bit. Robert was much more dependent on Ned than the other way around.

Mooton was dead when Rhaegar returned, of course, but prior to that he and Connington seem to have been at court. Especially Jon couldn't have risen to the position of Hand without telling Aerys everything he knew. One could assume Jon knew pretty much nothing but that doesn't make much sense if he was one of the companions. And when exactly the other guys left we really don't know. The only source for the Dayne and Whent being with Rhaegar during the abduction is the App, isn't it? That might be more or less conjecture based on the fact that they were at the tower and with Rhaegar when he left. But in the end we don't know yet how many people were involved in the abduction thing. Could be that Rhaegar took Lyanna just with Whent and Dayne, but it could also be he took her with his half a dozen companions.

And Richard Lonmouth is still missing. For all we know he could have been with Rhaegar and Lyanna until Gerold found them. Then he would know pretty much everything there is.

[SFDanny]

LV,

we know Rhaegar did run off with Lyanna, and Aerys did not disinherit him. I don't take it as logical that this means he did so with Aerys's approval. I think the fact we know Aerys cannot find Rhaegar after he removes his Hand, Lord Merryweather, and is forced to settle for Jon Connington as a replacement means Rhaegar is hiding from his father. We know not all is well between father and son. Given this situation, why would Rhaegar risk disinheritance by making a marriage to Lyanna public? I don't think he would, and not only because of Aerys's likely disapproval - the major reason, but also because of the disapproval of the Martells, who are already pissed off because of the public way Elia is treated, at least in the eyes of her brothers and likely others in Dorne as well, and the disapproval the rebels can manufacture from people all across the political spectrum who have religious objections to a second marriage. The pious worshippers of the Seven or of the Old Gods don't need a push by Rhaegar to move to supporting the rebels by a public proclamation of a second marriage. Or more precisely, it makes no sense for Rhaegar, who wants the Targaryens to continue their rule, to further limit the royalist support by forcing the issue of a polygamous marriage at this time. When he is king and the war over, is another situation all together. If they marry, they have every reason to keep it secret until a future when Rhaegar has become king.

I do agree with you that Rhaegar and Lyanna do not anticipate open rebellion following their departure. One can not anticipate stupid (Brandon) or crazy (Aerys) in the degree that follows their running away. Rickard and Robert should yell about the Lord's rights, and Aerys should fume about his son messing around with this wild northern girl who is the child of likely traitors, but war shouldn't be on anyone's agenda.

In a world in which Lyanna lives to be brought back to Robert, I think Robert's professed love for Lyanna would be put to the test. But that's something we never see happen. Instead Ned brings back the news of Lyanna's death, and he is not about to confront Robert about Lyanna's real feelings. To do so would place a vary dangerous reality before Robert without surety of what Robert would do. Especially at a time it appears Ned is hiding Lyanna and Rhaegar's child from Robert under the guise of Ned's own bastard. Ned very much wants Robert to believe that all is as it was between them before they fought over the fate of Elia and her children.

I should be clear, I think we are told over and over again that Robert has a madness in him concerning the Targaryens. I think this comes from the very personal dishonor he feels from Rhaegar taking the woman he thinks of as his. So, I think Ned rightly fears what Robert would do if he finds out Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son without anything to do with what the Lannisters would try to do.

I've no doubt that if the Lannister learn Jon's parentage and can prove it, they would use this knowledge to drive a wedge between Lord Eddard and the king. First and foremost, because that relationship interferes in their own ability to control what Robert will do, but also for their own personal reasons. I think we think too much about Tywin as the cold and calculating political player, and do not see the man who holds grudges and "always pays his debts" when those are repayments come in the most cruel ways possible. Tywin hates Aerys for the indignities he forces him to swallow. He hates Rhaegar for choosing first Elia, and then Lyanna over Cersei. Even though Elia is arguably totally a choice of Aerys. And he wants to eliminate all Targaryens as much as Robert does.

Ned hates the Lannisters for what they did to Elia and her children, and for what they did to the honor of the rebellion he fought. For Ned, he believes they fought to end the cruelty and caprice that Aerys represented, not to continue that same cruelty on the very day Robert first sits his throne. I've no doubt, if it was Ned who was the newly crowned king, his first act would have been to have Tywin's head taken with Ned's own sword. With all the murders of children soon to follow.

What Robert does that day, obviously caused a rupture between the two men. Ned sees his friend and new king endorse the very cruelty he thinks they fought against. And when Lyanna lays dying and pleading in fear for her son, I can't but see how Ned very much fears the same from his formerly closer than a brother newly made king. 

On Starfall:

I think the timeline points to Ashara's child being born much earlier than Jon. I know what Ser Barristan says, but his "short time" could be up to a year earlier. Mixing up Lyanna's giving birth with Ashara's seems impossible. And again I think we have to either have Wylla giving birth to Jon in Starfall, or Wylla showing up with Jon when she comes to Starfall and claiming him as her child to start these rumors. I should add that is only really makes sense if Ned also shows up in Starfall and claims the same child Wylla claims as hers is also his.

Your wishes concerning the tale of Ned taking Jon, and his Wetnurse across Dorne are fairly similar to mine. I think it a major plot hole that needs to answered. Which is why I speculate about Ashara being with them. It makes it much more believable.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Rhaenys,

Benjen certainly could know stuff, too. He certainly knows more about Lyanna's secrets than Ned.

The Howland idea is that Aerys commands to find the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Rhaegar's investigation would first lead him to the knights the Knight defeated, then to the squires, and from the squires to ... Howland Reed. Howland would then, presumably, point him to Lyanna after Rhaegar had accused him of being the Knight. We don't know yet whether Howland was aware of what Lyanna did, but he may have been able to guess the truth considering that he knew he wasn't the Knight himself.

Benjen may have helped Lyanna to acquire armor and all, but he wouldn't necessarily have caught Rhaegar's eye during the investigation, and may subsequently not have witnessed/learned what happened between Rhaegar and Lyanna firsthand. At least the stuff that happened at the tourney. But Howland might. He may actually not only be a witness of the tower of joy stuff but also the witness of the beginning of the whole love story/affair.

And I still think that Howland's role in saving Ned's life from Ser Arthur might be connected to all that. Say, Arthur being unable to actually kill/attack Howland because of his history with Rhaegar, or Howland saying stuff that caused Arthur to change his mind.

By the time of the Trident Howland certainly would have been able to share his knowledge with Ned. Benjen would have been able to do that much earlier, but if he did one really, really wonders why Ned had not told Robert as soon as he know that he wasn't going to do anything about Rhaegar? Why didn't he try to make a peace with him? After all, the Starks main issues were with Aerys, not Rhaegar, and while Robert was just some guy Ned had no reason to care about his wrath or his anger one bit. Robert was much more dependent on Ned than the other way around.

Mooton was dead when Rhaegar returned, of course, but prior to that he and Connington seem to have been at court. Especially Jon couldn't have risen to the position of Hand without telling Aerys everything he knew. One could assume Jon knew pretty much nothing but that doesn't make much sense if he was one of the companions. And when exactly the other guys left we really don't know. The only source for the Dayne and Whent being with Rhaegar during the abduction is the App, isn't it? That might be more or less conjecture based on the fact that they were at the tower and with Rhaegar when he left. But in the end we don't know yet how many people were involved in the abduction thing. Could be that Rhaegar took Lyanna just with Whent and Dayne, but it could also be he took her with his half a dozen companions.

And Richard Lonmouth is still missing. For all we know he could have been with Rhaegar and Lyanna until Gerold found them. Then he would know pretty much everything there is.

Hmm... But wouldn't the squires already be able to tell Rhaegar who had scared them off, if he asked them/commanded the truth from them?

And even if Rhaegar was pointed to Lyanna, she could have lied when confronted. The armor and such will have been donned in secret, and probably not in her own tent (as it would draw attention if the mystery knight were to suddenly walk out of a tent known to belong to the Starks).

I also think that it is equally possible that Howland intervened during the fighting, making it impossible for Arthur to kill Ned, giving Ned enough time to give Arthur the finishing blow. Even if Rhaegar and Howland had spoken at Harrenhal, that should not have left Arthur unable to kill Howland, should it have been necessary. 

As to why Ned, if he had found out earlier, had not told Robert.. What was Robert going to do? Stop rebelling? The rebellion began because Aerys had demanded the heads of Robert and Ned, and nothing that would be going on with Rhaegar and Lyanna would change that fact. Nor could anything be done any further, seeing as how Rhaegar only returned from the south relatively shortly before the Trident. Can't make your peace with a guy whom you can't locate. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On Starfall:

I think the timeline points to Ashara's child being born much earlier than Jon. I know what Ser Barristan says, but his "short time" could be up to a year earlier. Mixing up Lyanna's giving birth with Ashara's seems impossible. And again I think we have to either have Wylla giving birth to Jon in Starfall, or Wylla showing up with Jon when she comes to Starfall and claiming him as her child to start these rumors. I should add that is only really makes sense if Ned also shows up in Starfall and claims the same child Wylla claims as hers is also his.

Your wishes concerning the tale of Ned taking Jon, and his Wetnurse across Dorne are fairly similar to mine. I think it a major plot hole that needs to answered. Which is why I speculate about Ashara being with them. It makes it much more believable.

It greatly depends on when she became pregnant, and we don't know that yet. We know she was dishonored at Harrenhal, we know she turned to 'Stark', and we know sh egave birth to a stillborn girl. I agree that we can't say that, when Barristan says "shortly after", we definitly are speaking about mere days or weeks. Multiple months are equally possible, and indeed perhaps even a year.

If Wylla came from elsewhere, in order to arrive at Starfall to claim that Jon was hers, then we can wonder why she was allowed to stay, or, in case that she left, return. Especially if the other story at Starfall is that Ashara and Ned had loved each other. 

[SFDanny]

It greatly depends on when she became pregnant, and we don't know that yet. We know she was dishonored at Harrenhal, we know she turned to 'Stark', and we know sh egave birth to a stillborn girl. I agree that we can't say that, when Barristan says "shortly after", we definitly are speaking about mere days or weeks. Multiple months are equally possible, and indeed perhaps even a year.

If Wylla came from elsewhere, in order to arrive at Starfall to claim that Jon was hers, then we can wonder why she was allowed to stay, or, in case that she left, return. Especially if the other story at Starfall is that Ashara and Ned had loved each other. 

We know Jon is born around the time of the sack or a month or so later. Given the rebellion lasting about a year just when do we think would be an ideal time for Ashara to have met up with one of the Stark brothers? I'd say the likely window of opportunity closes pretty quickly once the rebellion starts and at the latest that puts a nine month full term pregnancy - not a given with a still born child - at least three months before Jon' earliest date of birth. If we are talking a Harrenhal conception of Ashara's child it is much, much earlier. Am I right?

Now, we can make up secret meetings behind enemy lines of Ashara and Ned, or Ashara having a conjugal visit in the Black Cells with Brandon, but I find these things very unlikely without any evidence. 

I share your concerns about Wylla, RT. The stories have too many holes in them.

[RumHam]

Yes but they probably had a large cooking pot at the tower. Then all Ned needed was the axe or the saw. Humans smell a lot like pork when cooked. You ever hear the story about Davy Crocket and potatoes? Him and his men got in a fight with some Indians and Crocket and his men were starving. The Indians were hold up in a Cabin and Crocket and his men decided to burn them out. But they never came out, they stayed while the burned. The bodies cooked and the hot melted fat from the bodies had seeped into the cellar onto some potatoes the heat and the hot fat fried the potatoes. Well Crocket and his men were starving, so they ate those potatoes. Tasted like they were fried in bacon fat, he also never ate another potato. So it probably smells like ham bone soup. So it smells pretty good, nummy nummy for Rum "HAM'S" tummy. Rum Ham! Rum Ham!

Man, did you have to ruin potatoes for me too?