Tywin in the privy

[Light a wight tonight]

This is a topic that's been debated before, but I have a different take on the situation. I think. Anyhow, here goes:

The scenario was set up by Varys. The reason Tywin was on the potty was that Varys had dosed home with the same super-purgative that Tyrion gave Cersei to keep her out of circulation. Varys may have planted Shae in Tywin's bed while Tywin was indisposed. That might explain why she wasn't shocked when Tyrion showed up; Varys told her that she'd be meeting Tyrion in his old chambers. It's curious that Tywin would have a cocked and loaded crossbow in his chambers, especially in an obvious place. Another Varys plant? 

Varys's plan includes removing all competent leadership from King's Landing in preparation for Aegon's invasion. (Motive) He has access to almost all of the Red Keep through the secret passages, including Pycelle's store of drugs. (Means) He's freeing Tyrion, who is harboring a huge grudge against his family, especially his father, for abandoning him in the regicide trial. (Opportunity). 

The evidence may be circumstantial, but given Varys's character it's pretty strong, in my opinion.

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

I personally hate this theory but in my eyes I don't see anything in the books saying "fuck no!" So it could be true. My personal favorite is he was poisoned by The Red Viper. And again nothing in the books saying it went down this way. Hell he could have just had to take a crap had too much cheese and was constipated. 

[Good Guy Garlan]

I've got 2 problems with this: 

1) Tyrion only got REAL pissed at Tywin after Jaime told him the truth about Tysha, something that Varys truly had no way of foreseeing.

2) It's really a VERY convoluted plan with many moving parts: Varys needed to a) poison Tywin, b ) slip Shae in there at the right moment (and surely against her will, because I can't imagine she was eager to meet a pissed off Tyrion in his father's bed after she betrayed him), c) get the loaded crossbow in there, and d) make sure Tyrion is really in a murderous enough mood to kill his father

I mean, if Varys wanted Tywin dead so much, why didn't he kill himself like he killed Kevan and Pycelle? Easy peasy, uses the secret tunnel, pins the crime on Tyrion or Shae, no one's the wiser. Or even better: if he was going to put a laxative in his drink in the first place, why not use the Tears of Lys or the Strangler and skip all the other complicated phases of the plan?

Oh, and if he was planning on pulling all this off anyway, why did he only get into action AFTER Jaime forced him to break Tyrion out of jail?

And I don't have the books with me right now, but I seem to remember Shae was really surprised when she saw Tyrion

[kimim]

I've got 2 problems with this: 

1) Tyrion only got REAL pissed at Tywin after Jaime told him the truth about Tysha, something that Varys truly had no way of foreseeing.

2) It's really a VERY convoluted plan with many moving parts: Varys needed to a) poison Tywin, b ) slip Shae in there at the right moment (and surely against her will, because I can't imagine she was eager to meet a pissed off Tyrion in his father's bed after she betrayed him), c) get the loaded crossbow in there, and d) make sure Tyrion is really in a murderous enough mood to kill his father

I mean, if Varys wanted Tywin dead so much, why didn't he kill himself like he killed Kevan and Pycelle? Easy peasy, uses the secret tunnel, pins the crime on Tyrion or Shae, no one's the wiser. Or even better: if he was going to put a laxative in his drink in the first place, why not use the Tears of Lys or the Strangler and skip all the other complicated phases of the plan?

Oh, and if he was planning on pulling all this off anyway, why did he only get into action AFTER Jaime forced him to break Tyrion out of jail?

And I don't have the books with me right now, but I seem to remember Shae was really surprised when she saw Tyrion

This. Varys pulls an LF here: He jumps on an opportunity, and makes it work.

[Queen of Thornes]

There simply is no guarantee that Tyrion would have killed Tywin. He may have just sworn at him and left. He may have looked at the gurl in disgust and left to catch a fast boat to Anywhere-But-Here.

I think its more likely that Tyrion killing Tywin was not something that Varys orchestrated.

[Lord Lannister]

I'm just going to have to say no to this one. There's no way he could've manipulated Shae, Tywin and Jaime to set up the dominoes to fall over as such and Tyrion was fully ready to leave before Jaime confessed about Tysha. Plus as we saw with Kevan, Varys doesn't need Tyrion's help if he wants to off someone in King's Landing.

Contrary to popular belief, there are events that can happen independent of Littlefinger, Varys or Bloodraven's interference.

[Lord Potsmoke]

I'm just going to have to say no to this one. There's no way he could've manipulated Shae, Tywin and Jaime to set up the dominoes to fall over as such and Tyrion was fully ready to leave before Jaime confessed about Tysha. Plus as we saw with Kevan, Varys doesn't need Tyrion's help if he wants to off someone in King's Landing.

Contrary to popular belief, there are events that can happen independent of Littlefinger, Varys or Bloodraven's interference.

Agreed

 

its a nice theory but I don't buy it, too many variables.

[Swordofmorning]

Contrary to popular belief, there are events that can happen independent of Littlefinger, Varys or Bloodraven's interference.

I am gonna have to disagree with you.

Nothing can happen without Bloodraven's consent. He is the puppet master of ASOIAF and basically has more power than even George himself.

[mediterraneo]

I've got 2 problems with this: 

1) Tyrion only got REAL pissed at Tywin after Jaime told him the truth about Tysha, something that Varys truly had no way of foreseeing.

2) It's really a VERY convoluted plan with many moving parts: Varys needed to a) poison Tywin, b ) slip Shae in there at the right moment (and surely against her will, because I can't imagine she was eager to meet a pissed off Tyrion in his father's bed after she betrayed him), c) get the loaded crossbow in there, and d) make sure Tyrion is really in a murderous enough mood to kill his father

I mean, if Varys wanted Tywin dead so much, why didn't he kill himself like he killed Kevan and Pycelle? Easy peasy, uses the secret tunnel, pins the crime on Tyrion or Shae, no one's the wiser. Or even better: if he was going to put a laxative in his drink in the first place, why not use the Tears of Lys or the Strangler and skip all the other complicated phases of the plan?

Oh, and if he was planning on pulling all this off anyway, why did he only get into action AFTER Jaime forced him to break Tyrion out of jail?

And I don't have the books with me right now, but I seem to remember Shae was really surprised when she saw Tyrion

On point 2/c: the crossbow was always there in the room: the only difference is that it was now loaded, and with the box under it for a short people to be easy to get it. If it was just Tywin's internal decoration style, he was very unlucky with that.

On Shae: she was surprised because she didn't know she would see him again.
Varys's lies and veiled threats could have pushed her into the tunnels and in the room, from the very same passages she used when that was Tyrion's room. If the drug for her was in the wine in the bottle, Varys could have brough it for her, together with her and the crossbow's bolt, through the same tunnels, already poisoned, and leaved it there. If I was a prostitute with some affection for my previous client-lover, that now had allegedly to sleep with his father and killer... I'd get myself drunk for the task if possible, without too much questioning, expecially if nobody pushed me to drink that wine. I would "already know" what do they want from me, and I would be already submitting to that "willingly" enough.

On point 1, Tyrion effectively killing Tywin, and Varys not doing it himself in another moment.
Varys needed the culprit to be Tyrion, to break the Lannister.
Once Tyrion is on a box of mine, directed to my friend's Illyrio's palace, what does it stop me from going up that ladder, killing Tywin and blame Tyrion on that, if he doesn't do it?
The court would have had exactly the same proofs as they have in the books about Tyrion's guilt in that. We read of Tyrion killing him, but there were not (living) witnesses. Varys could have don it himself, because Tywin was going to be blocked there for longer.
Also: if Tywin was poisoned outright, he could have died in a less than perfect moment, in a less than perfect place. What if he died with Tyrion still in the jail? That would proof that another killer is around poisoning people.
It would also be very dangerous for the master of spies with a sorrowful mother and daughter at the helm. Doing it as "he did" (if he did) has both the advantage of guaranteeing a culprit and to direct Cersei's hate to Tyrion, and far from Varys.

Again on point 2: it is a bit convoluted, you are right. But not as much as it seems, and it was built up by need.
Varys to execute the plan needed to drug Tywin, to manipulate Shae in doing her job (she was a rich men's prostitute all the way) in a place where she already did it, to bring some wine for her to get drunk for the deed because she had to fuck with the father and client of her last client, one she was caring for but one she already betrayed in court. Not an impossible task. Varys had to bring a single bolt in the room, charge a crossbow and carefully move a box.
He also has to do another thing: to leave one particular and very recognizable room of the secret passages, the one with the dragon mosaic, very well lightened when Shae goes to Tyrion room, every time. He was sure that Tyrion would ask her of the passages, and she keeps her blind in the darkness for all of the way, minus in that room, very close to the Hand's chamber. We know that Varys does this alone, to be sure nobody goes telling to Cersei, so the well lit room costs him actual time.
The very same room, with the mosaic and all is right hte place where Varys waits for Tyrion, with the room again very well lit, to let him know he is near to the Hand's quarter.
It is convoluted, yes.
The possible reward for the setup are that, if he can manipulate Tyrion into entering his father's room, he will kill Tywin and be ready to betray the family and work for Daenerys or Aegon or whatever Varys's endgame is.
The possible loss from this is... Having to shoot Tywin himself with that crossbow, after sending Tyrion out, having Illyrio find some other motivation for Tyrion, and having wasted lots of wood or charchoal or whatever Varys burns to light up that room with the dragon's mosaic.

Cheers!

[Maester of Valyria]

Contrary to popular belief, there are events that can happen independent of Littlefinger, Varys or Bloodraven's interference.

If only more people understood this...

Also, a minor point admittedly, but the crossbow was not already cocked:

Afterward he found Lord Tywin's dagger on the bedside table and shoved it through his belt. A lion-headed mace, a poleaxe, and a crossbow had been hung on the walls. The poleaxe would be clumsy to wield inside a castle, and the mace was too high to reach, but a large wood-and-iron chest had been placed against the wall directly under the crossbow. He climbed up, pulled down the bow and a leather quiver packed with quarrels, jammed a foot into the stirrup, and pushed down until the bowstring cocked. Then he slipped a bolt into the notch.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think that Varys poisoned Tywin and that he realized what was going to happen when Tyrion wanted to go find him and thus allowed that to happen, but as Good Guy Garlan stated, it would be too convoluted to have actually planned the way everything happened.

I believe Tywin built the tunnel to Chatayas and that he was really with Shae.  Shae never appeared to be a halfwit or anything, if Varys showed up and said hey I'm going to bust Tyrion out of jail, and put you in his old bedchamber so you guys can bang before his father gets out of the bathroom and then you can both leave the city(not the other way around)  Shae would have known something was wrong, and probably would have said something to Tyrion, at least she would have said wait, the fact that she did not suggests to me that the story would not have improved her situation.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

This is a topic that's been debated before, but I have a different take on the situation. I think. Anyhow, here goes:

The scenario was set up by Varys. The reason Tywin was on the potty was that Varys had dosed home with the same super-purgative that Tyrion gave Cersei to keep her out of circulation. Varys may have planted Shae in Tywin's bed while Tywin was indisposed. That might explain why she wasn't shocked when Tyrion showed up; Varys told her that she'd be meeting Tyrion in his old chambers. It's curious that Tywin would have a cocked and loaded crossbow in his chambers, especially in an obvious place. Another Varys plant? 

Varys's plan includes removing all competent leadership from King's Landing in preparation for Aegon's invasion. (Motive) He has access to almost all of the Red Keep through the secret passages, including Pycelle's store of drugs. (Means) He's freeing Tyrion, who is harboring a huge grudge against his family, especially his father, for abandoning him in the regicide trial. (Opportunity). 

The evidence may be circumstantial, but given Varys's character it's pretty strong, in my opinion.

To me this just seems like Varys would simultaneously have two separate plans to kill Tywin working at once, which is more than would be needed.

I can buy that Varys poisoned Tywin, and maybe even was looking to pin it on Tyrion (he was just found guilty of poisoning the King) but this seems like a lot of work just to make sure Tywin was super dead.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I've got 2 problems with this: 

1) Tyrion only got REAL pissed at Tywin after Jaime told him the truth about Tysha, something that Varys truly had no way of foreseeing.

2) It's really a VERY convoluted plan with many moving parts: Varys needed to a) poison Tywin, b ) slip Shae in there at the right moment (and surely against her will, because I can't imagine she was eager to meet a pissed off Tyrion in his father's bed after she betrayed him), c) get the loaded crossbow in there, and d) make sure Tyrion is really in a murderous enough mood to kill his father

I mean, if Varys wanted Tywin dead so much, why didn't he kill himself like he killed Kevan and Pycelle? Easy peasy, uses the secret tunnel, pins the crime on Tyrion or Shae, no one's the wiser. Or even better: if he was going to put a laxative in his drink in the first place, why not use the Tears of Lys or the Strangler and skip all the other complicated phases of the plan?

Oh, and if he was planning on pulling all this off anyway, why did he only get into action AFTER Jaime forced him to break Tyrion out of jail?

And I don't have the books with me right now, but I seem to remember Shae was really surprised when she saw Tyrion

All good points.

 

In addition, OP, how long do you imagine Tywin had to be on the toilet in order for Varys to do all you state in the OP?

 

This. Varys pulls an LF here: He jumps on an opportunity, and makes it work.

Agreed.

 

I think that Varys poisoned Tywin and that he realized what was going to happen when Tyrion wanted to go find him and thus allowed that to happen, but as Good Guy Garlan stated, it would be too convoluted to have actually planned the way everything happened.

I believe Tywin built the tunnel to Chatayas and that he was really with Shae.  Shae never appeared to be a halfwit or anything, if Varys showed up and said hey I'm going to bust Tyrion out of jail, and put you in his old bedchamber so you guys can bang before his father gets out of the bathroom and then you can both leave the city(not the other way around)  Shae would have known something was wrong, and probably would have said something to Tyrion, at least she would have said wait, the fact that she did not suggests to me that the story would not have improved her situation.

I recently read a good argument against the "Tywin build the tunnel" theory. If Tywin had the tunnel build, why alienate Chataya by having Alayaya whipped? In addition, how would Tywin had had that tunnel build? By the time Joanna died, Aerys was already rather paranoid about Tywin. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

All good points.

 

 

 

I recently read a good argument against the "Tywin build the tunnel" theory. If Tywin had the tunnel build, why alienate Chataya by having Alayaya whipped? In addition, how would Tywin had had that tunnel build? By the time Joanna died, Aerys was already rather paranoid about Tywin. 

I could be wrong but didn't Cersei do that?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I could be wrong but didn't Cersei do that?

It was Tywin

“It was you who had Yaya whipped.” It was not a question.
“Your sister told me of your threats against my grandsons.” Lord Tywin’s voice was colder than ice. “Did she lie?”
Tyrion would not deny it. “I made threats, yes. To keep Alayaya safe. So the Kettleblacks would not misuse her.”
“To save a whore’s virtue, you threatened your own House, your own kin? Is that the way of it?”
“You were the one who taught me that a good threat is often more telling than a blow. Not that Joffrey hasn’t tempted me sore a few hundred times. If you’re so anxious to whip people, start with him. But Tommen... why would I harm Tommen? He’s a good lad, and mine own blood.”

[aryagonnakill#2]

It was Tywin

“It was you who had Yaya whipped.” It was not a question.
“Your sister told me of your threats against my grandsons.” Lord Tywin’s voice was colder than ice. “Did she lie?”
Tyrion would not deny it. “I made threats, yes. To keep Alayaya safe. So the Kettleblacks would not misuse her.”
“To save a whore’s virtue, you threatened your own House, your own kin? Is that the way of it?”
“You were the one who taught me that a good threat is often more telling than a blow. Not that Joffrey hasn’t tempted me sore a few hundred times. If you’re so anxious to whip people, start with him. But Tommen... why would I harm Tommen? He’s a good lad, and mine own blood.”

Well there's no arguing that.  It still seems too complicated of a plan to have any real chance of success.  How could Varys have known how Jaime would react.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Well there's no arguing that.  It still seems too complicated of a plan to have any real chance of success.  How could Varys have known how Jaime would react.

O, I definitly agree that it seems way too complicated.

[Balerion's Whiskers]

Apparently Tywin had a habit of visiting the privy late at night. If Tywin was not in his bed, he could have been anywhere in the Red Keep, but Tyrion knew where to look for him and headed there first. Although, it played right into Varys' hands, I do not think he set it up.

Waddling to the door, he listened a moment, then eased it open slowly. A lamp burned in a stone niche, casting wan yellow light over the empty hallway. Only the flame was moving. Tyrion slid out, holding the crossbow down against his leg.

He found his father where he knew he'd find him, seated in the dimness of the privy tower, bedrobe hiked up around his hips. At the sound of steps, Lord Tywin raised his eyes.

Tyrion gave him a mocking half bow. "My lord."

[Dorian Martell]

This is a topic that's been debated before, but I have a different take on the situation. I think. Anyhow, here goes:

The scenario was set up by Varys. The reason Tywin was on the potty was that Varys had dosed home with the same super-purgative that Tyrion gave Cersei to keep her out of circulation. Varys may have planted Shae in Tywin's bed while Tywin was indisposed. That might explain why she wasn't shocked when Tyrion showed up; Varys told her that she'd be meeting Tyrion in his old chambers. It's curious that Tywin would have a cocked and loaded crossbow in his chambers, especially in an obvious place. Another Varys plant? 

Varys's plan includes removing all competent leadership from King's Landing in preparation for Aegon's invasion. (Motive) He has access to almost all of the Red Keep through the secret passages, including Pycelle's store of drugs. (Means) He's freeing Tyrion, who is harboring a huge grudge against his family, especially his father, for abandoning him in the regicide trial. (Opportunity). 

The evidence may be circumstantial, but given Varys's character it's pretty strong, in my opinion.

So, for this extremely convoluted theory, involving 5 people in a castle, and all the precise timing, Varys  would have had to know exactly how long it would take Tywin's  colon to lock up, then be watching Jamie in the Lord commander's room to see when he leaves and heads to the black cells,   then carry a drugged Shae in the room via the secret ladder of over 200 rungs, be lucky enough to see that Tywin had taken off the chain of hands, put said chain on her, then run back to the Black cells to meet Jamie.  It seems the timing is to much for one person. Maybe if he saw Tywin eating a bunch of Chorizo tacos he could guarantee a 4 hour window in the privy but poison from a few days ago? I doubt it.
I think it is more likely that Tywin had been drinking with Shae (possibly telling her that he would send his son to the wall)  and she passed out drunk while waiting for the golden deuce to drop and was in a bit of a stupor when Tyrion showed up.  
I agree that Varys wanted to remove all competent leadership from KL, and although I have no proof, I poisoning tywin to frame dorne seems more likely. Tyrion Killing Tywin just accelerated the plan a bunch forcing Varys to leave and let the queen's men find Rungen's gold coin from the Reach

[Chinoiserie]

All good points.

 

In addition, OP, how long do you imagine Tywin had to be on the toilet in order for Varys to do all you state in the OP?

 

Agreed.

 

I recently read a good argument against the "Tywin build the tunnel" theory. If Tywin had the tunnel build, why alienate Chataya by having Alayaya whipped? In addition, how would Tywin had had that tunnel build? By the time Joanna died, Aerys was already rather paranoid about Tywin. 

Tywin could have had the tunnel but before Joanna's death. They spent most of their marriage apart you know. So while Tywin might have loved his wife maybe he did not consider meaningless sex with prostitutes that bad when she was not around. And maybe Tywin turned to Shae because he had alienated Chataya. He would not prioritize using whores above punishing Tyrion through Alayaya.

This theory about Varys planning Tyrion to kill Tywin is something I have always disliked. The only point seems to Varys get Tyrion completely turn against his family but that pretty much had happened already with being sentenced to death. And Tyrion was not confirmed to have the person who killed Tywin anyway, you would think people were certain but they were not, so getting Tyrion have the blame did not happen either.