Sansa and the Giants - an analysis and prediction based on foreshadowing of Sansa's arc in the Vale

[sweetsunray]

On 22-3-2016 at 5:17 PM, Isobel Harper said:

I don't recall if this has been proposed yet; if so then bear with me.

Instead of an avalanche, have you considered Giant's Lance actually breaking off during an earthquake and landing on the Gate's of the Moon? 

Oh yes, that was actually the first thing I thought of when I read the link of the Giant's Lance with Gregor's Lance and SR collapsing across the snow castle. But a mountain's head crumbling isn't really a realistic scenarion. So, I then veered to a rockslide. It's when I thought: winter, "snow" castle I had the third idea of an avalanche. That seemed both a realistic but also most destructive scenartio to me, even more so than a rockslide (from a collapsing mountain top). I was starting to write up an essay and scenario for myself at that time, collecting quotes and puzzling the pieces together, and mentioned the avalanche idea in the threads of Sly Wren that we regularly use to discuss as a sandbox to bounce ideas to each other, and Lady Dyanna produced the avalanche quote from Catelyn's chapter.

So, yes, I thought of the Giant's Lance breaking off, snapping off and a rockslide originally, but I put it aside again because it would be far harder realistically AND would not be as destructive. A snow powder avalanche is more like a tsunami disaster, a mud slide or volcano eruption. It takes the majority of people with them, with just a minority surviving. A rockslide would have a minority killed and a majority surviving. It depends what type of damage that George intends to be done. Personally, I'm leaning to the avalanche destruction, especially since there are more hints to it hidden away in the text, while the rockslide has less hints to it, other than that the mountains are prone to suffre rockslides.

On 22-3-2016 at 5:17 PM, Isobel Harper said:

As to what all of these sexual allusions might mean, I'm not too sure.  But I do feel that they foreshadow something.  Perhaps just the disaster, which itself has sexual connotations?  Perhaps Sansa loses her virginity the night of the disaster?  Or perhaps sexual allusions will persist in her chapters, as LF becomes closer and closer to attempting to take her virginity?

Well there are sexual allusions in the plucking-a-rose scene as well. And since there can be parallels found between that tourney scene with Loras as well as how Harry has been presented, I don't see why there is a need to only focus on LF in that regard. However, I don't think it's exlusive sexual foreshadowing. SR's collapsing as well as Ser Hugh being killed are quite violent and destructive in their allusions, while the Mountain and Gregor's Lance are too much an allusion to the mountain called the Giant's Lance...and obviously a mountain cannot deflower a maiden.

I think you're also touching on @LmL's idea how George works in echoes of an astronomical disaster both in natural disaster legends as well as maidens dying either by a literal sword as well as a figurative one in childbirth (the result of a man's sexual sword). So, yes, obvioiusly the foreshadowing of a natural disaster would also include sexual allusions.

[sweetsunray]

On 23-3-2016 at 10:42 AM, Modesty Lannister said:

An outstanding OP. I agree with everything. If I may add something, it can be my OP on a similar topic. It may give you more ideas: 

 

Thank you, Modesty Lannister. I read your theory at the time you posted it in March last year. It was where I learned of the idea that Timett might be the son of the abducted Waynwood daughter and have a blood connection to the Arryns. At the time I had some questions on the plot significance for it. It's only in connection with a preceding disaster weakening the families in number of heirs that has the ability to weaken the defenses of the Bloody Gate combined with the disaster foreshadowing that I accepted it as a plot enrichment. Of course it helps that the doll knocks on the gatetowers in the snow castle scene as well as there is a reference to Ser Hugh's arm lighting up like fire when the sun shines on it, and his "new armor". I will add your name as a reference to those who proposed Timett of having Arryn blood most likely, and a link to your OP in my own OP and the same article on my blog.

[Isobel Harper]

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Oh yes, that was actually the first thing I thought of when I read the link of the Giant's Lance with Gregor's Lance and SR collapsing across the snow castle. But a mountain's head crumbling isn't really a realistic scenario. So, I then veered to a rockslide. It's when I thought: winter, "snow" castle I had the third idea of an avalanche. That seemed both a realistic but also most destructive scenario to me, even more so than a rockslide (from a collapsing mountain top). I was starting to write up an essay and scenario for myself at that time, collecting quotes and puzzling the pieces together, and mentioned the avalanche idea in the threads of Sly Wren that we regularly use to discuss as a sandbox to bounce ideas to each other, and Lady Dyanna produced the avalanche quote from Catelyn's chapter.

Why do you feel that the mountain head has to fall off?  Because of SR's doll losing its head?  When I think of Giant's Lance falling on the Gate of the Moon, I think of it collapsing something like this from the Gates of the Moon up.  Or perhaps I'm visualizing Giant's Lance too much like a literal lance.

I reviewed the avalanche quote you mention:

Dawn was breaking in the east as Mya Stone hallooed for the guards, and the gates opened before them. Inside the walls there was only a series of ramps and a great tumble of boulders and stones of all sizes. No doubt it would be the easiest thing in the world to begin an avalanche from here.

When I formulated my last post, I wasn't considering how the collapse would effect other castles directly.  I thought there'd be a collapse instead of an avalanche.  But, maybe we're both right.  Catelyn is at Sky in the above scene, right?  Why not have the avalanche start at Sky?  Sky is just below the Gates of the Moon.  When Giant's Lance falls on the Gates of the Moon, the snow from the top of Giant's Lance and the loosened snow and stone would cause an avalanche from Sky down. 

Question.  I reviewed the Wiki to double-check Sky's location.  The wiki page also states that Sky is 600 feet from the Eyrie - that is, 600 feet away from the top of Giant's Lance.  The source is one of Sansa's AFfC chapters.  Do we know how tall Giant's Lance is, at least in relation to other castles?

[Isobel Harper]

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

So, yes, I thought of the Giant's Lance breaking off, snapping off and a rockslide originally, but I put it aside again because it would be far harder realistically AND would not be as destructive. A snow powder avalanche is more like a tsunami disaster, a mud slide or volcano eruption. It takes the majority of people with them, with just a minority surviving. A rockslide would have a minority killed and a majority surviving. It depends what type of damage that George intends to be done. Personally, I'm leaning to the avalanche destruction, especially since there are more hints to it hidden away in the text, while the rockslide has less hints to it, other than that the mountains are prone to suffer rockslides.

Depends on how the fracture occurred.  An earthquake just strong enough could do it.  Again, I'm assuming the whole thing falls, although the head, or any other significant piece of it, might be more feasible.

However, I disagree that Giant's Lance falling wouldn't be destructive.  (See above.)

[Modesty Lannister]

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Thank you, Modesty Lannister. I read your theory at the time you posted it in March last year. It was where I learned of the idea that Timett might be the son of the abducted Waynwood daughter and have a blood connection to the Arryns. At the time I had some questions on the plot significance for it. It's only in connection with a preceding disaster weakening the families in number of heirs that has the ability to weaken the defenses of the Bloody Gate combined with the disaster foreshadowing that I accepted it as a plot enrichment. Of course it helps that the doll knocks on the gatetowers in the snow castle scene as well as there is a reference to Ser Hugh's arm lighting up like fire when the sun shines on it, and his "new armor". I will add your name as a reference to those who proposed Timett of having Arryn blood most likely, and a link to your OP in my own OP and the same article on my blog.

Thank you very much. That is very kind. I agree with you once again. Your outstanding analysis about the deadly avalanche and clans' attack pushes what I dug from the text further into the realm of possibility. I love it when people's theories inspire one other. This is a very complex reading and everything is in the text analysis of the type you provided. Also, keep in mind that Timmett spent a significant amount of time in King's Landing learning warcraft. So, he is not just a clan leader with shinier and deadlier weapons. He is now a warrior, trained in the capital who spent hours with the best strategic mind around - Tyrion.  Plus, he knows Sansa. My firm belief is that Daenerys will land in the Vale just like her ancestor did. And your theory provides us with a reason to land in the Vale. If the army and the leadership are annihilated by a natural disaster, it would be that much easier to establish a new government. Deanerys has a track record of supporting the underdog - the slaves. Her advisor-to-be Tyrion knows Timmett and his skills and Timmett may just have another valuable skill under his belt - dragon riding. From the history of Westeros we know how strategically important Vale is. Sheltered by the mountains of the Moon, it provides quick access to the North, the Riverlands and King's Landing. Jon Arryn used it to his advantage. 

Finally, Timmett's clan was founded on the worship of a fire-witch:

Quote

The Black Ears take the ears of men they defeat in battle as trophies, we know. Amongst the Burned Men, a youth must give some part of his body to the fire to prove his courage before he can be deemed a man. This practice might have originated in the years after the Dance of the Dragons, some maesters believe, when an offshoot clan of the Painted Dogs were said to have worshipped a fire-witch in the mountains, sending their boys to bring her gifts and risk the flames of the dragon she commanded to prove their manhood.

The World of Ice and Fire - The Vale

And Daenarys fits the bill, doesn't she?

[chrisdaw]

Unless there's going to be two disaster events you're way too early on the avalanche. It's end game, as I think you said yourself, right before the war for the dawn, and Sansa is not going to be in the Vale at that point. You're applying way too much to Sansa in the Vale where there's no reason to. X and Y may happen to Sansa, but even if that's correct it doesn't have to be in the Vale. For example, all the stuff about Sansa on her knees. Anyway the avalanche is this.

Quote

When the sun rises in the West and sets in the East, when the seas go dry and the mountains blow in the wind like leaves, when my womb quickens again and I bear a living child, Khal Drogo will return to me.

And I suggest it's also this one.

Quote

 

She threw back the shutters and shivered as gooseprickles rose along her arms. There were clouds massing in the eastern sky, pierced by shafts of sunlight. They look like two huge castles afloat in the morning sky. Sansa could see their walls of tumbled stone, their mighty keeps and barbicans. Wispy banners swirled from atop their towers and reached for the fast-fading stars. The sun was coming up behind them, and she watched them go from black to grey to a thousand shades of rose and gold and crimson. Soon the wind mushed them together, and there was only one castle where there had been two.

She heard the door open as her maids brought the hot water for her bath. They were both new to her service; Tyrion said the women who’d tended to her previously had all been Cersei’s spies, just as Sansa had always suspected. “Come see,” she told them. “There’s a castle in the sky.”

They came to have a look. “It’s made of gold.” Shae had short dark hair and bold eyes. She did all that was asked of her, but sometimes she gave Sansa the most insolent looks. “A castle all of gold, there’s a sight I’d like to see.”

“A castle, is it?” Brella had to squint. “That tower’s tumbling over, looks like. It’s all ruins, that is.”

 

The Eyrie is your tumbling tower, east from KL as the direction Sansa is looking.

Now there's two castles and they become one in the sky. I suggest the other is Dragonstone. Dragonstone is a volcano, giants waking from the earth = seismic activity = volcanic eruption is I think what we're looking at here. Eyrie falls and Dragonstone erupts (Valyria style). You end up with two less castles and a big ash cloud in the sky, conveniently filled with dragonglass right before the war for the dawn.

But Dany has to be in Westeros to see it, and by then Sansa will not be in the Vale.

[bemused]

sweetsunray... This is really beautifully done - on your part and many of the responses. I wanted to say so much earlier, but I think I was busy with Tycho at the time, and then I couldn't find the thread when I went looking for it. I'm glad it survived.

Now I have a lot of reading to do to catch up ! I just wanted to register my compliments in case I can't discuss more fully for a while yet.

[Blind Beth the Cat Lady]

7 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Unless there's going to be two disaster events you're way too early on the avalanche. It's end game, as I think you said yourself, right before the war for the dawn, and Sansa is not going to be in the Vale at that point. You're applying way too much to Sansa in the Vale where there's no reason to. X and Y may happen to Sansa, but even if that's correct it doesn't have to be in the Vale. For example, all the stuff about Sansa on her knees. Anyway the avalanche is this.

And I suggest it's also this one.

The Eyrie is your tumbling tower, east from KL as the direction Sansa is looking.

Now there's two castles and they become one in the sky. I suggest the other is Dragonstone. Dragonstone is a volcano, giants waking from the earth = seismic activity = volcanic eruption is I think what we're looking at here. Eyrie falls and Dragonstone erupts (Valyria style). You end up with two less castles and a big ash cloud in the sky, conveniently filled with dragonglass right before the war for the dawn.

But Dany has to be in Westeros to see it, and by then Sansa will not be in the Vale.

I think you're misinterpreting both those quotes. Mountains blowing in the wind like leaves applies to Archibald Yronwood--mountain of a man whose house effectively controls the Dornish mountains--blowing around Essos with the Windblown, and also blowing back and forth about being allied with Dany. Engame of this being Yronwoods declaring for Dany while Martells ally with Aegon, splitting Dorne and ushering in Dance 2.0. (This scenario + the OP would effectively wreck the two parts of Westeros that have been relatively unscathed so far, so I see them as fairly complementary.)

Even if I'm wrong, I really doubt Dany has gotten a prophecy that primarily applies to Sansa. Dany's predictions have been pretty Dany-centric thus far.

The two cloud castles seem most obviously to be House Stark and Lannister merging--the black and grey castle merging with the rose and gold. Lannister, notably, has the ruined tower. I think it'll be ruined in a power struggle between Tyrion & his dragon and Cercei & her wildfire. (This can also set up CR to be the "smoking tower" of Dany's HotU vision, where the stone dragon takes off breathing shadow fire. I'm starting to feel pretty confident that applies to Tyrion.) All of Cercei's children are doomed, Jaime is embracing his KG status, and Tyrion seems unlikely to father legitimate children anytime soon (in fact he *can't* do this with anyone but Sansa, as things stand). So basically no clear heirs to CR. Tyrek may be hiding in the wings but I doubt he'll have a lot of luck actually claiming CR. Thus Sansa may bear a child and claim that it's Tyrion's (they are still married after all) and that child may inherit both Winterfell and CR. (Assuming neither Jon nor Rickon turn out to be viable Winterfell heirs, which is not a huge leap IMO.)

And it would be super ironic in such a lovely way if Tywin's dream of merging Stark and Lannister with the Tyrion/Sansa wedding actually happens, but with Stark very much dominant in the merger.

 

All that to say, I really don't see either of those quotes as being in opposition to the OP.

[sweetsunray]

 

18 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

Why do you feel that the mountain head has to fall off?  Because of SR's doll losing its head?  When I think of Giant's Lance falling on the Gate of the Moon, I think of it collapsing something like this from the Gates of the Moon up.  Or perhaps I'm visualizing Giant's Lance too much like a literal lance.

I reviewed the avalanche quote you mention:

Dawn was breaking in the east as Mya Stone hallooed for the guards, and the gates opened before them. Inside the walls there was only a series of ramps and a great tumble of boulders and stones of all sizes. No doubt it would be the easiest thing in the world to begin an avalanche from here.

When I formulated my last post, I wasn't considering how the collapse would effect other castles directly.  I thought there'd be a collapse instead of an avalanche.  But, maybe we're both right.  Catelyn is at Sky in the above scene, right?  Why not have the avalanche start at Sky?  Sky is just below the Gates of the Moon.  When Giant's Lance falls on the Gates of the Moon, the snow from the top of Giant's Lance and the loosened snow and stone would cause an avalanche from Sky down. 

Question.  I reviewed the Wiki to double-check Sky's location.  The wiki page also states that Sky is 600 feet from the Eyrie - that is, 600 feet away from the top of Giant's Lance.  The source is one of Sansa's AFfC chapters.  Do we know how tall Giant's Lance is, at least in relation to other castles?

Well, I don't the mountain's head has to fall off. I'm just describing my initial ideas before I figured out the avalanche and interpreted the foreshadowing scenes in depth.

I think you are indeed visualizing the Giant's Lance incorrectly. It's described as a mountain where whole armies camped on the flanks of it (the battle between the Royce King and Andal Falcon Knight). It's not a spire shape.

So, a "collapse" of a mountain, more in the shape of the Mount Everest, would imply an explosion or implosion of a solid mountain. I'm sorry but that's not realistic at all, unless you put dynamite in there or it's a volcano that blows up in a pyroclastic eruption. Any earthquake heavy enough to make a solid mountain of over 5000 m high collapse would be the disaster itself. The Gates of the Moon don't even need to be burried under the rubble or dust of that mountain. It would be reduced to rubble by the earthquake itself. And that is not what the tourney scene of Ser Hugh's death hints at all. It hints at the mountain striking the moon residency of the Arryns.

I don't understand why you think Sky is below the Gates of the Moon? Nor is the Eyrie is on the top of the mountain. 

Quote

Looming over them all was the jagged peak called the Giant’s Lance, a mountain that even mountains looked up to, its head lost in icy mists three and a half miles above the valley floor.(aGoT, Catelyn VI)

The mountain is 3,5 miles (or 5630 m) high from valley to top (and thus higher if compared to sea level).

Here's the layout: you can ride to the Bloody Gates along the road through the Mountains of the Moon starting from the Crossroads at the Riverlands. The Bloody Gates is a fortification in a narrow mountain pass. At the end of that pass you end at a valley floor, and it's in this valley floor that the castle Gates of the Moon are situations. The Gates of the Moon are situated at the FOOT of the mountain in a valley. From that foot and thus from the Castle (Gates of the Moon) you can climb the mountain along a path with 3 waygates called Stone, Snow and Sky. Sky is the highest waygate, from where you can finally get to the Eyrie 600 feet above. The Eyrie's height is not specified, but Sansa can look up to the mountain's wall rising far above her into the mists from the Eyrie, so the Eyrie is not at 5630 m above the valley floor (likely even 6000 m above sea level).

I think you're letting yourself be confused by the wiki's phrasing of the Eyrie being astride the mountain top. But that Catelyn climbed a mountain of 5630 m as far as the top in one night into the extreme height range (>5500 m, oxygen related), but not yet the daeth zone (>8000 m) certainly is too far a stretch. The Wiki unfortunately uses phrasing that leads to a mistaken image of where the Eyrie is situated. It's on the shoulder, not the head of the mountain.

So if the mountain itself has collapsed, then we can't speak of an avalanche anymore, as the mountain woudl be levelled to the valley floor and no snow will "fall" anymore, as it already will be on the valley floor.

[sweetsunray]

14 hours ago, Modesty Lannister said:

Thank you very much. That is very kind. I agree with you once again. Your outstanding analysis about the deadly avalanche and clans' attack pushes what I dug from the text further into the realm of possibility. I love it when people's theories inspire one other. This is a very complex reading and everything is in the text analysis of the type you provided. Also, keep in mind that Timmett spent a significant amount of time in King's Landing learning warcraft. So, he is not just a clan leader with shinier and deadlier weapons. He is now a warrior, trained in the capital who spent hours with the best strategic mind around - Tyrion.  Plus, he knows Sansa. My firm belief is that Daenerys will land in the Vale just like her ancestor did. And your theory provides us with a reason to land in the Vale. If the army and the leadership are annihilated by a natural disaster, it would be that much easier to establish a new government. Deanerys has a track record of supporting the underdog - the slaves. Her advisor-to-be Tyrion knows Timmett and his skills and Timmett may just have another valuable skill under his belt - dragon riding. From the history of Westeros we know how strategically important Vale is. Sheltered by the mountains of the Moon, it provides quick access to the North, the Riverlands and King's Landing. Jon Arryn used it to his advantage. 

Finally, Timmett's clan was founded on the worship of a fire-witch:

And Daenarys fits the bill, doesn't she?

It's a possibility. We would then witness the current powers in the Vale collapse with the avalanche disaster followed by the Mountain Clans at least conquering the Bloody Gates and Gates of the Moon (the far range of the mountains), while the remaining surviving houses are hampered to come to the aid of house Arryn with passes snowed in, in Sansa's POV, before she's abducted to another location (as I think is the likeliest result with the Mad Mouse on a "red horse" being there). And then we continue to see the Vale's development when Danaerys lands there. 

[sweetsunray]

9 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Unless there's going to be two disaster events you're way too early on the avalanche. It's end game, as I think you said yourself, right before the war for the dawn, and Sansa is not going to be in the Vale at that point. You're applying way too much to Sansa in the Vale where there's no reason to.

Actually, I concentrated on a lot of the foresahdowing in Sansa's chapters that is unrelated to her. The majority of foreshadowing paragraphs in her POV are unrelated to her, except Ser Hugh's death, Loras giving her a flower (and that is actually in Ned's POV), and finally the snow castle. But these are the sole foreshadowing scenes where George focuses on Sansa's feelings and reflections about it. Yes, I'm applying it on Sansa, because those are the sole foreshadowing scenes of the dozens in her POV that are about her. I hope that at least Sansa has some right to have some part of the events in her story to be about her no? There are so few paragraphs of Sansa's personal reflections and feeling on what happens to her, while so many are merely neutral observation, that yes, this stark contrast supports the conclusion those related foreshadowing scenes relate to Sansa's story.

I did not say it was "end game disaster"... It's a beginning of the end disaster...So, it will happen in tWoW with Sansa in the Vale, and be part of the series of kick-start Long Night events.

And yes, it is Vale related, because

1. Ser Hugh wears a sky blue cloak of moon sickles. There's only ONE sigil in the whole of Westeros that has a sky blue color - House Arryn's.
2. There's only one mountain with a castle at its foot in Westeros, that happens to be called the Giant's Lance with passes and castles that fit the description of sickle moons turning red from blood after the Mountain killed Ser Hugh with a "lance".
3. etc, etc (see OP)

I don't see why there need to be two disasters:

Quote

When the sun rises in the West and sets in the East, when the seas go dry and the mountains blow in the wind like leaves, when my womb quickens again and I bear a living child, Khal Drogo will return to me.

Why do you assume that Dany must witness mountains blowing in the wind like leaves personally? We have one phrase in Dany's POV and suddenly the repeated foreshadowing in Sansa's POV that also includes her rare personal reflections and feelings as if she's impacted by it herself is to be seen as foreshadowing for Dany's arc?

It sounds more like a series of cataclystic events in a timeline that is in a sequence rather than simultaneously, and it indicates no personal tie to Dany except her bearing a child again. The foreshadowing will be fulfilled if Dany hears or learns about the disasters after they happened.

9 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

The Eyrie is your tumbling tower, east from KL as the direction Sansa is looking.

Now there's two castles and they become one in the sky. I suggest the other is Dragonstone. Dragonstone is a volcano, giants waking from the earth = seismic activity = volcanic eruption is I think what we're looking at here. Eyrie falls and Dragonstone erupts (Valyria style). You end up with two less castles and a big ash cloud in the sky, conveniently filled with dragonglass right before the war for the dawn.

I like this.

 

9 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

But Dany has to be in Westeros to see it, and by then Sansa will not be in the Vale.

Why does she need to be in Westeros to see it? I don't see any  necessity of Dany actually witnessing any of the cataclystic events of MMDs prediction, other than her bearing a child, in order to have it fulfilled. It can still work with "When A happens somewhere on Planetos then B will happen to you."

[sweetsunray]

4 hours ago, bemused said:

sweetsunray... This is really beautifully done - on your part and many of the responses. I wanted to say so much earlier, but I think I was busy with Tycho at the time, and then I couldn't find the thread when I went looking for it. I'm glad it survived.

Now I have a lot of reading to do to catch up ! I just wanted to register my compliments in case I can't discuss more fully for a while yet.

Thank you, bemused

[Isobel Harper]

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I don't understand why you think Sky is below the Gates of the Moon? Nor is the Eyrie is on the top of the mountain.

Oops! 

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, Isobel Harper said:

Oops! 

It happens After reading the Wiki pages about both the Eyrie and Sky I can see why someone would end up with an erronous picture of both of their locations, and even how Sky related to the Gates of the Moon. It's written in a manner that leads to confusion, if you don't have a clear image yet from the actual chapters.

It mentions the Eyrie is "astride the peak of the mountain"... It kindof works if you consider the peak of the mountain as starting from the shoulder of a mountain, and astride as covering a rocky section that is part of the peak. A peak can be the highest point of the mountain, or it could be the steepest section you need to climb to get to that top. Hence the same working can easily lead to the mistaken idea that the Eyrie is at the tip of the mountain.

And the Sky page is confusing too:

Quote

Sky is the third waycastle defending the Eyrie, seat of House Arryn, and the last line of the castle following the Gates of the Moon, and the waycastles of Stone and Snow.

That could be mistakenly read as first there's Sky, then Gates of the Moon, then Stone and then Snow (from bottom to top).

It's actually Gates of the Moon at the bottom, then comes Stone, followed by Snow, Sky and finally the Eyrie, and the final peak section rising above that. The Eyrie is probably in the range of 3000-4000 m high (my guess). That's the height where you can find cities in the Andes for example.

[LmL]

On March 24, 2016 at 3:28 PM, sweetsunray said:

Oh yes, that was actually the first thing I thought of when I read the link of the Giant's Lance with Gregor's Lance and SR collapsing across the snow castle. But a mountain's head crumbling isn't really a realistic scenarion. So, I then veered to a rockslide. It's when I thought: winter, "snow" castle I had the third idea of an avalanche. That seemed both a realistic but also most destructive scenartio to me, even more so than a rockslide (from a collapsing mountain top). I was starting to write up an essay and scenario for myself at that time, collecting quotes and puzzling the pieces together, and mentioned the avalanche idea in the threads of Sly Wren that we regularly use to discuss as a sandbox to bounce ideas to each other, and Lady Dyanna produced the avalanche quote from Catelyn's chapter.

So, yes, I thought of the Giant's Lance breaking off, snapping off and a rockslide originally, but I put it aside again because it would be far harder realistically AND would not be as destructive. A snow powder avalanche is more like a tsunami disaster, a mud slide or volcano eruption. It takes the majority of people with them, with just a minority surviving. A rockslide would have a minority killed and a majority surviving. It depends what type of damage that George intends to be done. Personally, I'm leaning to the avalanche destruction, especially since there are more hints to it hidden away in the text, while the rockslide has less hints to it, other than that the mountains are prone to suffre rockslides.

Well there are sexual allusions in the plucking-a-rose scene as well. And since there can be parallels found between that tourney scene with Loras as well as how Harry has been presented, I don't see why there is a need to only focus on LF in that regard. However, I don't think it's exlusive sexual foreshadowing. SR's collapsing as well as Ser Hugh being killed are quite violent and destructive in their allusions, while the Mountain and Gregor's Lance are too much an allusion to the mountain called the Giant's Lance...and obviously a mountain cannot deflower a maiden.

I think you're also touching on @LmL's idea how George works in echoes of an astronomical disaster both in natural disaster legends as well as maidens dying either by a literal sword as well as a figurative one in childbirth (the result of a man's sexual sword). So, yes, obvioiusly the foreshadowing of a natural disaster would also include sexual allusions.

Take one index finger, touch the tip to your thumb to make an "ok" sign. Now take your other index finger, hold it straight like a sword. Now, take your extended index finger and repeatedly jam it in and out of the circle of your other hand. 

That's pretty much the deal with all of this stuff. Fucking and fighting. Sex and swordplay.  The old "in-out." Toss a little of the old "ultra violence" and a psychedelic milkbar, and you've got it. That's how the Others were made btw - they drank too much of that Clockwork Orange milk. 

@sweetsunray I didn't notice you had a new post; I'll be sure to read and leave some serious comments. I will say that a rockslide from the top of the Giants Lance will in fact cause an avalanche. They are pretty much one and the same, since the top of the Giants Lance is covered in snow. 

I definitely think all of the foreshadowing you are seeing here might be referring to the impending (hypothetical) moon disaster  which I believe will trigger the new long night, probably at the end of the winds of winter.  It's always really hard to say if a set of symbols such as you are seeing with the Giants Lance refers to the Giants Lance itself, or whether it refers to some greater truth for which the Giants Lance is only symbolic. You know that I have been predicting this second moon disaster for a while now; so when I see you predicting a more localized avalanche/falling rock event, my first thoughts are that we are really talking about the moon.  But it's also possible that there will be a more localized event in the Vale, or, it may be that a moon meteor will land on the Giants lance to trigger this set of events. 

I'll be sure to read your OP here and offer anything helpful I may think of.

[Scorpion92]

1 hour ago, LmL said:

Take one index finger, touch the tip to your thumb to make an "ok" sign. Now take your other index finger, hold it straight like a sword. Now, take your extended index finger and repeatedly jam it in and out of the circle of your other hand. 

That's pretty much the deal with all of this stuff. Fucking and fighting. Sex and swordplay.  The old "in-out." Toss a little of the old "ultra violence" and a psychedelic milkbar, and you've got it. That's how the Others were made btw - they drank too much of that Clockwork Orange milk. 

@sweetsunray I didn't notice you had a new post; I'll be sure to read and leave some serious comments. I will say that a rockslide from the top of the Giants Lance will in fact cause an avalanche. They are pretty much one and the same, since the top of the Giants Lance is covered in snow. 

I definitely think all of the foreshadowing you are seeing here might be referring to the impending (hypothetical) moon disaster  which I believe will trigger the new long night, probably at the end of the winds of winter.  It's always really hard to say if a set of symbols such as you are seeing with the Giants Lance refers to the Giants Lance itself, or whether it refers to some greater truth for which the Giants Lance is only symbolic. You know that I have been predicting this second moon disaster for a while now; so when I see you predicting a more localized avalanche/falling rock event, my first thoughts are that we are really talking about the moon.  But it's also possible that there will be a more localized event in the Vale, or, it may be that a moon meteor will land on the Giants lance to trigger this set of events. 

I'll be sure to read your OP here and offer anything helpful I may think of.

That is actually what I thought too upon reading @sweetsunray and your theories: the moon meteor will hit the top of Giant's Lance in such a way that the tip of the mountain will fall off and cause a huge avalanche (Robert "UnGregor the Mountain" Strong, whose his head gets replaced by dwarf's, is transformed agent of death).

Also @chrisdaw had an interesting idea about Dragonstone erupting as a volcano and produce massive clouds of ash which includes dragonglass. If it is true then this eruption will start once moon meteor shower starts. It is a very good idea as it might provide unlimited supply of dragonglass to population in South for the fight against the Others.

[chrisdaw]

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Why do you assume that Dany must witness mountains blowing in the wind like leaves personally? We have one phrase in Dany's POV and suddenly the repeated foreshadowing in Sansa's POV that also includes her rare personal reflections and feelings as if she's impacted by it herself is to be seen as foreshadowing for Dany's arc?

It's a cataclysmic event, it's going to be witnessed and/or felt by a great deal of Westeros. It's not any personal thing for any character, and it's not really part of any character arc. No-one is going to learn anything from it. It's going to happen in the Vale, which is where Sansa is spending a lot of time, so it's natural we'll get most of the foreshadowing through her POV.

Dany has to see it or the prophecy falls dead. It's just poorly conceived if she only hears about these things second hand. She doesn't have to be there, she's flying a dragon, she could see it miles off.

36 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Also @chrisdaw had an interesting idea about Dragonstone erupting as a volcano and produce massive clouds of ash which includes dragonglass. If it is true then this eruption will start once moon meteor shower starts. It is a very good idea as it might provide unlimited supply of dragonglass to population in South for the fight against the Others.

The description of the Doom of Valyria specifically reads dragonglass rained from the sky.

[Isobel Harper]

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It mentions the Eyrie is "astride the peak of the mountain"... It kindof works if you consider the peak of the mountain as starting from the shoulder of a mountain, and astride as covering a rocky section that is part of the peak. A peak can be the highest point of the mountain, or it could be the steepest section you need to climb to get to that top. Hence the same working can easily lead to the mistaken idea that the Eyrie is at the tip of the mountain.

Yes, I knew that the Eyrie was at the top of the mountain, but thought it was on the highest apex of the mountain.  Still, you make a valid point.  "Top of the mountain" could be a point or a section of the mountain.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And the Sky page is confusing too:

That could be mistakenly read as first there's Sky, then Gates of the Moon, then Stone and then Snow (from bottom to top).

It's actually Gates of the Moon at the bottom, then comes Stone, followed by Snow, Sky and finally the Eyrie, and the final peak section rising above that. The Eyrie is probably in the range of 3000-4000 m high (my guess). That's the height where you can find cities in the Andes for example.

I thought the order of castles was Stone, Snow, Sky, Gates of the Moon, then the Eyrie.  I've thought this for some time, but the wiki did confuse me a little too.

[sweetsunray]

10 hours ago, LmL said:

Take one index finger, touch the tip to your thumb to make an "ok" sign. Now take your other index finger, hold it straight like a sword. Now, take your extended index finger and repeatedly jam it in and out of the circle of your other hand. 

That's pretty much the deal with all of this stuff. Fucking and fighting. Sex and swordplay.  The old "in-out." Toss a little of the old "ultra violence" and a psychedelic milkbar, and you've got it. That's how the Others were made btw - they drank too much of that Clockwork Orange milk. 

@sweetsunray I didn't notice you had a new post; I'll be sure to read and leave some serious comments. I will say that a rockslide from the top of the Giants Lance will in fact cause an avalanche. They are pretty much one and the same, since the top of the Giants Lance is covered in snow. 

I definitely think all of the foreshadowing you are seeing here might be referring to the impending (hypothetical) moon disaster  which I believe will trigger the new long night, probably at the end of the winds of winter.  It's always really hard to say if a set of symbols such as you are seeing with the Giants Lance refers to the Giants Lance itself, or whether it refers to some greater truth for which the Giants Lance is only symbolic. You know that I have been predicting this second moon disaster for a while now; so when I see you predicting a more localized avalanche/falling rock event, my first thoughts are that we are really talking about the moon.  But it's also possible that there will be a more localized event in the Vale, or, it may be that a moon meteor will land on the Giants lance to trigger this set of events. 

I'll be sure to read your OP here and offer anything helpful I may think of.

I think it falls into the echo category. The description scene of Ser Hugh's death matches the visual symbolism of the cosmic disaster of the past: a comet hitting a moon can be seen as a lance together with long night references. But it always struck me how the paragraphs right after Ser Hugh's death were so personal for Sansa: it's one of the few scenes where we can read her reflect on it. When I realized the name of the mountain is the Giant's Lance, pieces started to fall together. And of course later foreshadowing scenes: Sansa looking down on the Gates of the Moon and thinking of the people there as ants she wishes to stamp out, and the snow castle destruction, combined with variable scaled giants makes it too much a disaster on human scale and Westeros scale.

You made the point that several events in history or that we so far have witnessed in the books are echoing events of the cosmic disaster (from women dying in childbirth, rebirth of the dragons, etc) on Planetos' scale and dusrface. I thinkt this should apply for foreshadowed events as well. So, while you can use the same foreshadowing for another moon disaster or the past moon disaster, it is precise and specific enough for a Vale disaster that involves Sansa to serve as a parallelling echo.

[sweetsunray]

8 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

It's a cataclysmic event, it's going to be witnessed and/or felt by a great deal of Westeros. It's not any personal thing for any character, and it's not really part of any character arc. No-one is going to learn anything from it. It's going to happen in the Vale, which is where Sansa is spending a lot of time, so it's natural we'll get most of the foreshadowing through her POV.

Dany has to see it or the prophecy falls dead. It's just poorly conceived if she only hears about these things second hand. She doesn't have to be there, she's flying a dragon, she could see it miles off.

Chrisdaw,

I used the words of impact and reflection. I did not use learn. If Sansa reflects how she feels about what she witnesses that establishes a personal link to the event beyond mere neutral observation. If Sansa wishes she could stamp out the people at the Gates of the Moon like ants then that establishes a personal link to events at the Gates of the Moon and Sansa. If Sansa is angry and distraught over the destruction of the snow castle, it implies that the disaster will impact her - it destroys her dreams and hope regarding WF and getting back home. And that dream is to establish a cooperative relation with the Vale winning the North back and fighting for her. If Sansa stabs the gian doll's head onto a stick then she is personally responsible for any event that fits with a "giant's head" ending up on a spike on a wall.

All the tourney scenes we witness in Sansa's POV (the Hand's Tourney and the Nameday Tourney) are about events all over Westeros. She is either a witness or learns about these foreshadowed events through news. But the majority of them both the foreshadowing and Sansa learning about the events is written as a neutral reporter almost. It is only with those Vale foreshadowings that George adds Sansa's personal thoughts, reflections and feelings with the scenes. If Sansa was only witnessing foreshadowing of Vale events while she will not be in the Vale anymore when these events happen, then there simply would not be this type of personal involvement in the foreshadowing scenes. If the disaster is to happen in the Vale, long after Sansa has left the Vale, then George would not have written 2 reflective paragraphs in Sansa's POV about Ser Hugh, about the Gates of the Moon, about the snow castle. No, George would have kept it impersonal as much as he did for every other foreshadowing scenes in Sansa's POV. (I advize you to read the Red Trail of the Red Stallion II for this... that's the article that discusses how each scene in tourneys foreshadows events)

Anyhow, you can be impacted by an event without 'learning' something out of it. If for example I die in a car accident, I'm impacted by the event evidently, and yet I won't learn a thing.

As for Dany having to "see" it... in order to be able to bear a child, no. If I predict that you will become a father when Mars is inhabitated, that does not mean that you must be a Martian or even need to travel towards Mars. The prediction is true when some people live on Mars, while you live on Earth and learn you are to be a father. The tree still falls down, regardless whether someone is in the forest to hear the tree fall.