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Sunandspear

Would you prefer if Rhaegar won?

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now, as to who helped to push aerys's paranoia about rhaegar, im not sure. remember that aery's fear extended to his own servants. he wouldnt any near him for even so much as basic hygene. his hair was long and matted and filthy, his nails were long and twisted and discolored, he smelled horrible. so no servant could have gotten close enough to whisper in his ear. that leaves the small council, rhaella, and the kingsguard. i dont get the feeling that varys started it, though he did provide info after aerys wanted rhaegar "watched". could it have been pycelle, trying to push some agenda for tywin? one of the hands that aerys went through? who else was on his small council? if it was a kingsguard, i think we can discount arthur dayne and oswell whent, and barristan doesnt strike me. was jaime in the kingsguard yet when aerys's focused shifted?. but what about hightower? lewtyn martell? darry? rhaella  likely would have side with her son over her abusive husband, so i doubt her.

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46 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

ok, good point, but doesnt mean my arguement about aerys paranoia concerning rhaegar is invalid, nor the quality of varys's spies, or his skill as master of whispers. it was varys who tipped off aerys to rhaegar's plan to gather the nobles at harrenhal under guise of a tourney. and dragonstone, while rhaegar's seat, is not the absolute fortress, at least when it comes to targaryens fighting each other. its so small, the isle, and has a small standing military, compared to what aerys could call from the crownlands on quick notice. and if rhaegar remained at dragonstone, then he would be unable to call up a coalition to help him remove his father. thats not the kind of thing that can be carried out by raven. for one, if a lord decided to betray rhaegar in exchange for favors from the throne, he would have this very handy letter to provide as evidence. no, it would have been the kind of thing rhaegar would have sought to carry out in person if he had any real expectation for success. so likely he spent quite some time on the mainland, trying to build the support he needed while elia remained at dragonstone. she likely stayed there unless summoned by royal command by aerys, or need to appear at rhaegars side for certain situations like prominent tourneys, or summons by the king, or weddings, things of that kind of importance. 

 but my point is just because rhaegar's court was at dragonstone, doesnt mean he spent all his time there. he might not have been at the Red Keep, but that doesnt mean his presence wasnt felt in the rest of the realm.

I agree with you about the ravens, yet what evidence is there Rhaegar was trying to form a coalition against his father?

Other than that Varys told Aerys this was so?

 

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On 6/13/2017 at 11:56 AM, The Wolves said:

Dany could have still gotten the dragon eggs. Think about it that the Targs/Rhaegar would still be kings so someone would have likely presented them the dragon eggs. I honestly think it would have been more than three eggs. 

And I definitely think the Stark children would have been born. Rhaegar would not have killed Lyanna's brother or killed anymore Starks. I definitely think that Rhaegar would have pardoned the rebels because he would have understood why they rebelled.  

Since we're basically speculating, it's as well to remember that Rhaegar fought for his father.

After the crushing of the rebellion, Aerys would still be king.

We can speculate about whether Rhaegar would be able to depose him peacefully, or would depend on his friends in the Kingsguard to arrange a tragic accident or find some other solution.

If Rhaegar had won that duel and the battle, House Baratheon would have been ruled by Stannis.

Ned. Would he have survived the Battle of the Trident?

Lots of 'What ifs?' here!

48 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

now, as to who helped to push aerys's paranoia about rhaegar, im not sure. remember that aery's fear extended to his own servants. he wouldnt any near him for even so much as basic hygene. his hair was long and matted and filthy, his nails were long and twisted and discolored, he smelled horrible. so no servant could have gotten close enough to whisper in his ear. that leaves the small council, rhaella, and the kingsguard. i dont get the feeling that varys started it, though he did provide info after aerys wanted rhaegar "watched". could it have been pycelle, trying to push some agenda for tywin? one of the hands that aerys went through? who else was on his small council? if it was a kingsguard, i think we can discount arthur dayne and oswell whent, and barristan doesnt strike me. was jaime in the kingsguard yet when aerys's focused shifted?. but what about hightower? lewtyn martell? darry? rhaella  likely would have side with her son over her abusive husband, so i doubt her.

The idea is yours. What do you base it on?

I'm sure something you've read triggered this speculation and I'm very curious to know just what that was.

 

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5 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Since we're basically speculating, it's as well to remember that Rhaegar fought for his father.

 

Rhaegar fought for House Targaryen. The rebels came after House Targaryen(yes they went after a house that was made up of innocent women and children)Anyone else would have fought for their house right or wrong. 

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On 12/2/2015 at 10:32 AM, Sunandspear said:

Rhaegar's victory would probably be better for the realm, as I believe he'd be a more capable king than Robert and he'd keep Littlefinger and Varys and maybe even Tywin away from (too much) power. So if I lived in Westeros, I'd want Rhaegar to win. But the story we'd have wouldn't be as exciting as it is now. There probably wouldn't be a a war of the 5 kings, Jon wouldn't go to the Wall, Dany wouldn't be an important character and there wouldn't be any dragons. So as a reader I like it the way it is.

What about you?

I am glad the story was written the way it was. Because really, even if Rhaegar lived, something would have to happen to allow the story to continue as envisioned. 

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47 minutes ago, The Wolves said:

Rhaegar fought for House Targaryen. The rebels came after House Targaryen(yes they went after a house that was made up of innocent women and children)Anyone else would have fought for their house right or wrong. 

Aerys= House Targaryen.

Anything else is treason on the part of the Prince of Dragonstone.

I'm sorry, I didn't understand the rest of your post. It's a very very hot afternoon here and my brain are probably simmering in my skull. And I've run out of ice-cubes for my iced nettle tea.

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17 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Since we're basically speculating, it's as well to remember that Rhaegar fought for his father.

After the crushing of the rebellion, Aerys would still be king.

We can speculate about whether Rhaegar would be able to depose him peacefully, or would depend on his friends in the Kingsguard to arrange a tragic accident or find some other solution.

If Rhaegar had won that duel and the battle, House Baratheon would have been ruled by Stannis.

Ned. Would he have survived the Battle of the Trident?

Lots of 'What ifs?' here!

The idea is yours. What do you base it on?

I'm sure something you've read triggered this speculation and I'm very curious to know just what that was.

 

it came from the AWOIAF book. in the chapter on teh targaryen dynasty, when it covers Aerys's reign at the end of the dynasty. at one point, during the war of the ninepenny kings, he was actually good friends with tywin, but over time the hereditary madness crept in, and he became more erratic. but it didnt really fully manifest, as a paranoia based insanity, until after he had spent about year captive at duskendale. after that point, he went off the deep end. he wouldnt even trust his own servants close to his person, which lead to that horrid state of hygene. he alienated his best friend tywin, and began to throw insults at him, including trying to lure tywin's wife joanna into bed. 

as to rhaegar fighting for his fahter, i think it was more he was fighting for his house. robet was his cousin, and i bet he was well aware of how robert reacted to him and his, that stereotypical baratheon rage. i dont think rhaegar would have been able to treat with the rebels as long as robert lead them. i also think that aerys would have tried to fire the city, regardless of who returned from the trident, so it seems reasonable to me that jaime would have still killed him. wherr i see another divergence would be if tywin had proceeded to strike at the city or not. im up in the air about that. on the one hand, he could have decide to sit peacfully at the rock, then returned to the red keep to declare that rheagar owed him for not siding with the rebels, or he might have still struck as part of a gambit to place his own family on the throne. with the kind of personality and thought processes we have seen in tywin so far, either seems feasible.

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now, i admit, i do not trust tywin. i respect the hell out him for his ability and competency, i hate to have to face him in the field, but i just dont trust him. i see him as the opposite of robert. i would trust robert with my life, but not my money. i would trust tywin with my money, but not my life. his ruthless ambition just makes him far too dangerous.

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On Invalid Date at 5:01 AM, Lord Wraith said:

No he's going to do it to be on the winning side.

1) Maybe and maybe not.

2) Probably won't have more kids and Tywin can't pull what he did in RR.

3) Tywin played a big role at the end of the Rebellion and was rewarded justly. He will have done nothing to warren it this time.

Then why be on the winning side ? Unless it is for personal gain .

1) Consensus is that Lyanna died from complications from childbirth , Rhaegar still must subdue both the Eyrie and Winterfell  and force the surrender of Stannis , and Stannis is one tough mother  .And since he did not have either a midwife or a maester with Lyanna , her fate would be sealed .

2)Accidents happen everyday like a king getting killed at his own uncle's wedding ,especially if you have all the gold in Casterley Rock at your disposal .The Faceless men are still in business .

3)There you have me , but if you are going to remove the king where are get the backing from . Dorne ? Aerys threatened Elia , while Rhaegar had embarrassed her .The North Rhaegar's personal actions had led to the deaths of thousands of northmen including lords Rickard ,Brandon and Eddard .The Reach would be loyal to Aerys . That leaves the Stormlands ,the Vale and the Riverlands , while the Iron Islands would be plotting it's  independence . That leaves you with Tywin and he is going to want something ,Jaime  as his heir again and Cercei wed to Rhaegar (southron ambitions ) . 

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11 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

now, i admit, i do not trust tywin. i respect the hell out him for his ability and competency, i hate to have to face him in the field, but i just dont trust him. i see him as the opposite of robert. i would trust robert with my life, but not my money. i would trust tywin with my money, but not my life. his ruthless ambition just makes him far too dangerous.

There is nothing to fear from Tywin when facing him on the field. There is actually nothing exceptional about Tywin. 

You should worry more about Tywin off the field than on. That monster wins his battles by underhanded tricks, deceptions and backstabbings. Tywin has also never fought a fair fight he's a coward and a very little man when you take all that gold away. I wouldn't trust Tywin with anything he's too greedy and evil to be trusted.  

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1 hour ago, The Wolves said:

There is nothing to fear from Tywin when facing him on the field. There is actually nothing exceptional about Tywin. 

You should worry more about Tywin off the field than on. That monster wins his battles by underhanded tricks, deceptions and backstabbings. Tywin has also never fought a fair fight he's a coward and a very little man when you take all that gold away. I wouldn't trust Tywin with anything he's too greedy and evil to be trusted.  

No, no and no.

There's plenty to fear from Tywin on the field of battle, as Roose Bolton and Stannis Baratheon learned. As the Reynes and Tarbecks also learned. And there's much exceptional about Tywin.

Lord Lannister wins his battles by whatever means he needs and that means that there is no way to deny him victory. If you go up against him, you lose and probably die, as every enemy he has ever fought can testify to. In fact I can't recall a single military conflict he took part in which he didn't win or come out on top of his opponents. From the Blackfyres to the Starks, the land is littered by his broken foes.

Tywin can be trusted to care for what he cares for, House Lannister, and if you align your interests with Tywin's you'll have no more capable ally. And that is naturally the downside of it. Tywin is not a servant to be waved off at a whim and so should you desire his skills, you will also need to treat him according to his capabilities.

 

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On 6/15/2017 at 6:49 AM, Graydon Hicks said:

it came from the AWOIAF book. in the chapter on teh targaryen dynasty, when it covers Aerys's reign at the end of the dynasty. at one point, during the war of the ninepenny kings, he was actually good friends with tywin, but over time the hereditary madness crept in, and he became more erratic. but it didnt really fully manifest, as a paranoia based insanity, until after he had spent about year captive at duskendale. after that point, he went off the deep end. he wouldnt even trust his own servants close to his person, which lead to that horrid state of hygene. he alienated his best friend tywin, and began to throw insults at him, including trying to lure tywin's wife joanna into bed. 

I've only recently acquired my copy of AWoIaF.   I was glad you gave me a reason to consult it for the first time. There is a lot of information there. 

I was most intrigued by this passage in particular:

Quote
Spoiler

 

Aerys Targaryen and Tywin Lannister made for an unlikely partnership, it must be said. The young king was lively and active in the early years of his reign. He loved music, dancing, and masked balls, and was exceedingly fond of young women, filling his court with fair maidens from every corner of the realm. Some say he had as many mistresses as his ancestor Aegon the Unworthy (a most unlikely assertion given all we know of that monarch). Unlike Aegon IV, however, Aerys II always seemed to lose interest in his lovers quickly. Many lasted no longer than a fortnight and few as long as half a year.
His Grace was full of grand schemes as well. Not long after his coronation, he announced his intent to conquer the Stepstones and make them a part of his realm for all time. In 264 AC, a visit to King's Landing by Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell awakened his interest in the North, and he hatched a plan to build a new Wall a hundred leagues north of the existing one and claim all the lands between. In 265 AC, offended by "the stink of King's Landing," he spoke of building a "white city" entirely of marble on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush. In 267 AC, after a dispute with the Iron Bank of Braavos regarding certain monies borrowed by his father, he announced that he would build the largest war fleet in the history of the world "to bring the Titan to his knees." In 270 AC, during a visit to Sunspear, he told the Princess of Dorne that he would "make the Dornish deserts bloom" by digging a great underground canal beneath the mountains to bring water down from the rainwood.
None of these grandiose plans ever came to fruition; most, indeed, were forgotten within a moon's turn, for Aerys II seemed to grow bored with his royal enthusiasms as quickly as he did his royal paramours. And yet the Seven Kingdoms prospered greatly during the first decade of his reign, for the King's Hand was all that the king himself was not—diligent, decisive, tireless, fiercely intelligent, just, and stern. "The gods made and shaped this man to rule," Grand Maester Pycelle wrote of Tywin Lannister in a letter to the Citadel after serving with him on the small council for two years.

 

 

So there are hints of possible problems with the IB from Aerys' time.

Interesting.

From what I can see, the estrangement between Aerys and Tywin begins from the time Joanna Lannster was a lady-in-waiting to Queen Rhaella. And those tasteless comments on Lady Joanna's breasts happen in 272. Hardly an effort to lure the lady to his bed, don't you agree?

This is all long before the Defiance of Duskendell, in AC 277. 

It's clear, of course, that the DoD unhinged the poor man's mind.

as to rhaegar fighting for his fahter, i think it was more he was fighting for his house. robet was his cousin, and i bet he was well aware of how robert reacted to him and his, that stereotypical baratheon rage.

Well, yes, of course he was fighting for his House. And his House is headed by his father.

Also obviously. Given Aerys' penchant for abusing women AKA ' taking mistresses' it must have been alarming, to say the least, to see the son following in his father's footsteps. Robert and the other lords had had enough of enough. Also, their lives are at stake! Hmmm. Interesting. I didn't know that not all the lords of the Vale followed Lord Jon into rebellion.

So much to learn!

i dont think rhaegar would have been able to treat with the rebels as long as robert lead them.

Of course not. Rhaegar has nothing to offer the rebels. The have rebelled against the throne, not him. Rhaegar commands the armies, not the realm.

i also think that aerys would have tried to fire the city, regardless of who returned from the trident, so it seems reasonable to me that jaime would have still killed him.

Do you have anything from the text on which you've based that thought? I don't say you're wrong!

wherr i see another divergence would be if tywin had proceeded to strike at the city or not. im up in the air about that. on the one hand, he could have decide to sit peacfully at the rock, then returned to the red keep to declare that rheagar owed him for not siding with the rebels, or he might have still struck as part of a gambit to place his own family on the throne. with the kind of personality and thought processes we have seen in tywin so far, either seems feasible.

LF isn't the only one to take advantage of chaos!

Cheers!

 

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my main reasoning about aerys still firing the city is from his paranoia. he was as scared of rhaegar as anyone else. i think he half wanted rhaegar to be killed in the fighting, to help insure that viserys would be heir. i think kings' decisions over heir have been overturned before, i believe it was one of the issues surrounding the dance of dragons. i cant remember if was one the things that stared it or resolved it, but it was a part. 

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4 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

my main reasoning about aerys still firing the city is from his paranoia. he was as scared of rhaegar as anyone else. i think he half wanted rhaegar to be killed in the fighting, to help insure that viserys would be heir. i think kings' decisions over heir have been overturned before, i believe it was one of the issues surrounding the dance of dragons. i cant remember if was one the things that stared it or resolved it, but it was a part. 

You won't find me denying Aerys' paranoia.

However, remember who he had at his side- ser Jaime Lannister, the newest and youngest member of the KG. 

 

The causes of the first Dance of Dragons?

You can read more about that starting on page 73 of TWOIAF

Or here at our fabulous wiki

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Dance_of_the_Dragons

Great reading for a lazy hot Sunday.

:read:

Also, one of the gorgeous videos from the HO production

 

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yes, but aerys made jaime a KG as an insult to tywin, and likely to hold as a hostage against tywin. why he didnt keep more of the KG around him, i have no idea. with his paranoia, youd think he would have, and i believe he went everywhere with several of them at a time, but he only kept jaime, maybe he trust holding elia and having several of the KG around rhaegar would insure rhaegars' good behavior, and maybe he didnt believe rhaegar would lose the battle. i believe rhaegar actually had more men at that fight at the trident, but they broke and ran after robert killed the prince.

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2 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

yes, but aerys made jaime a KG as an insult to tywin, and likely to hold as a hostage against tywin. why he didnt keep more of the KG around him, i have no idea. with his paranoia, youd think he would have, and i believe he went everywhere with several of them at a time, but he only kept jaime, maybe he trust holding elia and having several of the KG around rhaegar would insure rhaegars' good behavior, and maybe he didnt believe rhaegar would lose the battle. i believe rhaegar actually had more men at that fight at the trident, but they broke and ran after robert killed the prince.

Of course Aerys named Jaime to the KG as an insult to his old friend, trusted Hand, companion at arms, etc.

Just as refusing the betrothal between Rhaegar and Cersei was an  insult.

Remember what Aerys said to Lord Tywin on that ocasion?

Quote

Later that same year, Lord Tywin Lannister, perhaps unwisely, held a great tournament at Lannisport in honor of Viserys's birth. Mayhaps it was meant to be a gesture toward reconciliation. There the wealth and power of House Lannister was displayed for all the realm to see. King Aerys at first refused to attend, then relented, but the queen and her new son were kept under confinement back at King's Landing. There, seated on his throne amongst hundreds of notables in the shadow of Casterly Rock, the king cheered lustily as his son Prince Rhaegar, newly knighted, unhorsed both Tygett and Gerion Lannister, and even overcame the gallant Ser Barristan Selmy, before falling in the champion's tilt to the renowned Kingsguard knight Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

Perhaps seeking to gain advantage of His Grace's high spirits, Lord Tywin chose that very night to suggest that it was past time the king's heir wed and produced an heir of his own; he proposed his own daughter, Cersei, as wife for the crown prince. Aerys II rejected this proposal brusquely, informing Lord Tywin that he was a good and valuable servant, yet a servant nonetheless. 

The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

Gods be good, that must have been a blow to the Lion of Lannister' pride.

 

I have the impression Aerys never paid proper attention to the lyrics of The Rains of Castamere

 

I don't get much of a feel for what happened at the Battle of the Trident- whatever the outcome, would ser Jaime have done his bloody deed if Aerys gave the order to burn all?

 

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On 6/13/2017 at 9:28 PM, Graydon Hicks said:

its considered morally wrong to us, not necessarily to them. most middle age cultures practiced infidelity. yes it was frowned on, yes it was amoral in the eyes of religion, but socially? acceptable with discretion. indeed, i would not be surprised if Ned, Arryn and stannis were more of the exception rather than the norm. most of the lords likely screwed on their wives, with these arranged marriages, but they kept their bastards out of sight, along with their whores or who ever they had an affair with. if you want to say that rhaegar, with his one infidelity was a horrible person, then you had better be prepared to accept that this makes robert the very spawn of satan if thats how you judge your kings. its was socially accepted, if not liked. and remember that most of the lords of westeros are not ned stark. they are not honor bound men who see unfaithfulness as wrong, but as their right to find their enjoyments where they can. many times these arranged marriage were as bothersome for the women as they were the men, since the women had almost no say in who they got to marry. case in point, lysa arryn. true, you may find the star struck young lovers out there who were quite happy with the marriage, but that likely was not what normally happened. most of them likely did their duty only until such time as an heir was born, then they probably sought enjoyments else where.

so saying that because rhaegar cheated on elia once would make him a bad king holds absolutely no water. not in westeros, and not in our own european history. especially if that is all you have as proof of his power decision skills.

 

Cheating on a spouse just because it is an arranged marriage, is not considered the norm nor considered acceptable behavior. It openly mocks the wife's house, Robert cheated on Cersei, did Lannisters care about him or did they just use him until he was no good for them? Did Cersie even wanted anything do to with him? Robb left his bethroned and he was killed. Cat didn't want Jon in Winterfell at all, and caused a huge estrangement from Ned. Tywin's father kept a mistress and he was openly mocked, and Aerys thought that by keeping mistresses, his wife was having miscarriages. Point is, Rheagar cheating is not seen as acceptable, and it was politically a stupid move, especially in his manor, by giving a garland to Lyanna and running off with her, made it public.

Also, if he knew his father was paranoid and insane then getting him out of power should have been his priority, instead of making more children and making potential allies angry, thats why I think, in my opinion, he would have been a terrible king. 

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1 hour ago, Crona said:

Also, if he knew his father was paranoid and insane then getting him out of power should have been his priority, instead of making more children and making potential allies angry, thats why I think, in my opinion, he would have been a terrible king. 

Yes, that is obvious. Either he was the worst moron. Which I don't believe. Or he knew (believed) he had no choice. And he did not what was necessary to win, by not returning before the Trident, and by not bringing all his KG.

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6 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Yes, that is obvious. Either he was the worst moron. Which I don't believe. Or he knew (believed) he had no choice. And he did not what was necessary to win, by not returning before the Trident, and by not bringing all his KG.

Yes, I do believe that coming in late, not taking the kingsguard, and facing Robert one on one were terrible decisions. There may have been other factors, but that has yet to be seen. From what I read and know, he doesn't seem like he makes good decisions.

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59 minutes ago, Crona said:

Yes, I do believe that coming in late, not taking the kingsguard, and facing Robert one on one were terrible decisions. There may have been other factors, but that has yet to be seen. From what I read and know, he doesn't seem like he makes good decisions.

The story is written to reach this conclusion. And what Robert said. And what we know of Aerys and Visery. But Baristan and maybe Jaime are suggesting differently. And we don't know enough of this prophecy.

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