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Lost Melnibonean

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My best guess about Ashara is that she is an Arryn, the one that got disowned for having an affair with a sellsword and supposedly joined the Silent Sisters. As far as Haldon goes, Tyrion at one point refers to him as a chainless Maester, which indicates to me that he might have actually been a Maester at one point who lost his chain for some sort of indiscretion or for taking a position that was impolitic, liking opposing the plot that Lady Dustin and Marwyn have referred to. His knowledge does seem more consistent with someone who had gotten his chain, and his desire to restore the Targaryeans does seem at odds with views of the Citadel which have been expressed at court by Pycelle, who advocated for hiring the Faceless Men to kill Dany. 

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My best guess about Ashara is that she is an Arryn, the one that got disowned for having an affair with a sellsword and supposedly joined the Silent Sisters. As far as Haldon goes, Tyrion at one point refers to him as a chainless Maester, which indicates to me that he might have actually been a Maester at one point who lost his chain for some sort of indiscretion or for taking a position that was impolitic, liking opposing the plot that Lady Dustin and Marwyn have referred to. His knowledge does seem more consistent with someone who had gotten his chain, and his desire to restore the Targaryeans does seem at odds with views of the Citadel which have been expressed at court by Pycelle, who advocated for hiring the Faceless Men to kill Dany. 

That bit about Lemore being the arryn gal who got seduced by a sellsword and packed off to the silent sisters with her bastard dying in infancy is interesting. I still like her as the Mad Maid though. 

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Just to clarify. I don't think the Golden Company officers know who Aegon actually is if he isn't Rhaegar's sons. Telling them or allowing them to know would inevitably cause too much of a risk. They could tell Aegon. They could let something slip to Jon Connington. And talk from them could find its way to the ears of Doran or Arianne Martell, and that would be the end of the entire plan (and possibly even the Golden Company itself should they end up being caught between 20,000 Dornish spearmen and the two Tyrell armies).

What Haldon and Lemore know or don't know greatly hinges on who the hell they actually are. What we know of Haldon - that he is known by the men/officers of the Golden Company - could be a hint that he is the descendant of one of the lords who went into exile with Bittersteel and Daemon's sons. I could see him as a scion from one of those families who make up the 'nobility' of the Golden Company, bloodlines that have been with them since the beginning (like the Stricklands, of example), who was then sent to Oldtown to learn at the Citadel for the specific purpose of becoming Aegon's teacher. If that's true then the 'halfmaester' part doesn't have to be the complete truth since Haldon could not possibly forge a complete chain and become a maester since that wouldn't allow him to return to Essos (or at least would make matters more complicated).

Who Lemore might be I really don't know. I once tossed around the idea that she could be Aegon's mother rather than the Serra character. Lemore could have dyed heir, too, after all, and we don't know her eye color. In addition, we have no idea about Illyrio's eye color as far as I know, nor do we know the exact shade of his fair hair. Could be Valyrian for all we know, and he may be using golden dye for decades to hide it.

Mostly because I find the idea very odd that Varys and Illyrio wouldn't keep one of the people they trust completely with their lad to keep an eye on Aegon and especially Jon Connington - who essentially is nothing but a pawn, to be discarded as soon as Aegon has taken the throne. His main purpose now during the war is to vouch for Aegon's legitimacy, but that's it. We don't know what Illyrio and Varys plan, but the chances are not so bad that Illyrio eventually intends to tell Aegon the truth, and this is clearly not going to work if Connington is still alive.

The question what Aegon might think/say/do when he finds out the truth about himself is actually a very interesting question, and I really hope this plot line comes up eventually. There must be a reason why George decided to refuse to allow us to see how Joffrey reacted to such a revelation delivered to him in a way that he had to believe it, and Tommen and Myrcella are now too young to really act independently after they learn the truth about their parents. But Aegon certainly could.

If that's bogus then my best guess is that Lemore is somebody important from the Targaryen court who can add her voice to Connington's that Aegon is Rhaegar's son - say, a lady-in-waiting to either Rhaella or Elia, or a noblewoman overseeing the royal nursery either on Dragonstone or in the Red Keep.

Some people have even suggested she might be Ashara Dayne.

But I don't think Haldon or Lemore know the truth about Aegon (unless Lemore is Aegon's mother, of course). My guess is that only Myles Toyne, Varys, and Illyrio know the truth - and if there was a Serra, she might have been killed because she knew the truth, too.

But wouldn't Toyne have communicated something to his successor in that case? To ensure that the Golden Company went with Illyrio? Not a committee perhaps, but maybe one single person?

Personally, I think Lemore is Melora, but a Targaryen associate is possible. Haldon Haldmaester I have no clue of.  Though I am aware that there is a theory he could be Melora's brother.  That could be possible given that the Citadel is in Oldtown and it would be easier for a Hightower to attend the Citadel unnoticed than another man of noble birth. 

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But wouldn't Toyne have communicated something to his successor in that case? To ensure that the Golden Company went with Illyrio? Not a committee perhaps, but maybe one single person?

Personally, I think Lemore is Melora, but a Targaryen associate is possible. Haldon Haldmaester I have no clue of.  Though I am aware that there is a theory he could be Melora's brother.  That could be possible given that the Citadel is in Oldtown and it would be easier for a Hightower to attend the Citadel unnoticed than another man of noble birth. 

Well, Strickland and some of the other officers from families that were with the Golden Company from the start might be aware who Illyrio actually is. But I really don't think this has to be the case. Illyrio and Varys would have made their pact which was written in blood with Myles Toyne, not all the officers of the Golden Company. If Harry Strickland had been completely in on the plan and aware with whom he was dealing one would assume he wouldn't have openly stated that the contract between Illyrio and the Golden Company was made by Myles Toyne and not him, and therefore Connington and Aegon have to be thankful that he was showing up and supporting them at all (which is what he does before Aegon gives his inspiring speech).

Blackheart may have left, say, a sealed document for his successor as captain-general making it clear that he wanted him to uphold his deal with Illyrio without giving all the details, and Illyrio himself would have contacted Strickland or even ensured Strickland's election to office of the captain-general.

I really don't see any connection between the Golden Company/Aegon and the Hightowers. The Hightowers have neither the motive to support the Golden Company or work with Varys/Illyrio nor do they right now have any interest in making common cause with them. And neither does Aegon, really. Aegon and the Golden Company will have Dorne, and the Martells will have no interest in marching to the aid of Oldtown. They want to get their revenge on the Lannisters at last. The fact that the Reach and Tyrells/Hightowers are right now tied up with the Ironborn is the diversion that will enable Aegon to quickly take KL and win the throne. Later on, various Reach Lords can proclaim for him or against him, playing a role in the Second Dance if such a war breaks out.

And, honestly, with Sam and Sarella in Oldtown, and Lord Leyton and the Mad Maid actually being into magic, the chances that Oldtown is going to proclaim for Aegon are very slow. Sam and Sarella will tell them about Daenerys should push come to shove (i.e. should the Hightower be forced to make a decision). But then, there might not even be a reason for that - after all, the glass candles are burning, and there is little reason to assume that the Citadel has artifacts the Lord of Oldtown does not also have (access to).

If the Hightowers declare for any pretender it will either be Daenerys or Euron (if the Ironborn crush the Redwynes and gain permanent control of the sea around Oldtown the Hightowers will bend the knee to him to protect their wealth and trading relations).

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Whatever allies Aegon get there'll be a price to pay. Well either that, or he has to prove himself being someone to be taken seriously.

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On 23/12/2015 at 4:53 AM, jarl the climber said:

My best guess about Ashara is that she is an Arryn, the one that got disowned for having an affair with a sellsword and supposedly joined the Silent Sisters. As far as Haldon goes, Tyrion at one point refers to him as a chainless Maester, which indicates to me that he might have actually been a Maester at one point who lost his chain for some sort of indiscretion or for taking a position that was impolitic, liking opposing the plot that Lady Dustin and Marwyn have referred to. His knowledge does seem more consistent with someone who had gotten his chain, and his desire to restore the Targaryeans does seem at odds with views of the Citadel which have been expressed at court by Pycelle, who advocated for hiring the Faceless Men to kill Dany. 

I have always supported the idea of Lemore, not Ashara, being the lost daughter of Alys and Elys Arryn. Littlefinger's speech to Sansa was too detailed just to tell us that Harry is Robert's Heir. Lemore has birth marks so, an dI think that she has the correct age... it is possible.

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1 hour ago, Ashur said:

I have always supported the idea of Lemore, not Ashara, being the lost daughter of Alys and Elys Arryn. Littlefinger's speech to Sansa was too detailed just to tell us that Harry is Robert's Heir. Lemore has birth marks so, an dI think that she has the correct age... it is possible.

I think we got that speech to set up Timett as a claimant for the Eyrie. 

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I think we can't see the Dance of Dragon's alliances and say that the same alliances will happen in the Second Dance, because the actual political situation and web of marriages and alliances are very different. But, we can compare with the alliances House Blackfyre have in the Reach, some houses from the Reach were not exiled, just lose some lands and castles. Among that houses are Houses Costayne, House Osgrey, House Peak, House Ball. Some supported both sides like House Hightower and House Oakheart. Many of them can have ties with the Golden Company and want to recover what they lose.

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22 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think we got that speech to set up Timett as a claimant for the Eyrie. 

Lemore being an Arryn is a remote, but possible outcome. Timett is... Timett  

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1 hour ago, Ashur said:

Lemore being an Arryn is a remote, but possible outcome. Timett is... Timett  

Yes, Son of Timett. But...

On 4/10/2015 at 11:58 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

So there's that little box about the Mountain Clans in the Vale, TWOIAF that says the Burned Men were spun off the painted dogs when they were entralled by a fire a witch with a dragon. I read Alys into this when I first read it but the more likely candidate was Nettles since the fire witch commanded a dragon, but that would muck up my theory on Brown Ben, and I think Alys is a better candidate. So...

What if the dragon wasn't a dragon like Sheepstealer but the child of Aemond One-Eye?!? And what if Timmet is not only the true heir to the Vale (as we all know is true, right?), but also a descendant ol' One-Eye?!?

And there's this...And even the other Burned Men feared Timett, who had put out his own left eye with a white-hot knife when he reached the age of manhood. Tyrion gathered that it was more customary for a boy to burn off a , a finger, or (if he was truly brave, or truly mad) an ear. Timett's fellow Burned Men were so awed by his choice of an eye that they promptly named him ared hand, which seemed to be some sort of a war chief. --Tyrion VII, Game 56

C'mon, tell me you can't feel this...

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Personally, Mathis Rowan always seemed like the most prominent Targ-supporter in the Reach. Various minor houses less connected to Highgarden could support them as well, but I like the work Lord Varys did demonstrating the breadth of Tyrell power in the Reach. Tarly is a wildcard, but you'd need to give him a pretty good reason to flip, as he's presently in a great place.

 

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4 hours ago, Veloknight said:

Personally, Mathis Rowan always seemed like the most prominent Targ-supporter in the Reach. Various minor houses less connected to Highgarden could support them as well, but I like the work Lord Varys did demonstrating the breadth of Tyrell power in the Reach. Tarly is a wildcard, but you'd need to give him a pretty good reason to flip, as he's presently in a great place.

Agree with you about Mathis Rowan. There is this quote from Tyrion III in Storm:

"Prince Doran comes at my son's invitation," Lord Tywin said calmly, "not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murder of his sister Elia and her children."

Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but it was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks fit to gag.

Rowan is potentially a Targaryen loyalist; Mace and his bannermen were among the last to bend the knee to Robert and did not do so until after Aerys had died. Randyll Tarly was not present at the Small Council meeting mentioned above, so we cannot know his thoughts on the matter. Intriguingly, as of the end of Dance, Mathis Rowan is at Storm's End, placing him in the best position geographically to defect. 

As for Randyll Tarly.......while he is effectively Mace's number two and is highly respected and powerful in the Reach, he is effectively Mace's number two. And as such has been made to suffer his prowess and the success of his vanguard at the Battle of Ashford becoming Mace's victory. Randyll is the source of Mace's military successes and everybody knows it. But nobody can say it. Added to that, when the Florents were attained after Alester made the catastrophic decision to support Renly and then Stannis, the Florent estate Brightwater Keep went to Garlan Tyrell. Not Melessa Florent - next Florent in line and Randyll's wife. Separately, little slights like this are nothing, and a man owes his liege lord an expression of loyalty. But, when these little slights begin to add up and it looks like defecting will be in your interests......

Plus, if Reach lords and landed knights and smallfolk suddenly drift over to Aegon as the Golden Company hope, then Randyll may decide to do to the Tyrells what the Tyrells did to the Gardeners during Aegon's Conquest. 

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4 minutes ago, dornishdame said:

Agree with you about Mathis Rowan. There is this quote from Tyrion III in Storm:

"Prince Doran comes at my son's invitation," Lord Tywin said calmly, "not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murder of his sister Elia and her children."

Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but it was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks fit to gag.

Rowan is potentially a Targaryen loyalist; Mace and his bannermen were among the last to bend the knee to Robert and did not do so until after Aerys had died. Randyll Tarly was not present at the Small Council meeting mentioned above, so we cannot know his thoughts on the matter. Intriguingly, as of the end of Dance, Mathis Rowan is at Storm's End, placing him in the best position geographically to defect. 

As for Randyll Tarly.......while he is effectively Mace's number two and is highly respected and powerful in the Reach, he is effectively Mace's number two. And as such has been made to suffer his prowess and the success of his vanguard at the Battle of Ashford becoming Mace's victory. Randyll is the source of Mace's military successes and everybody knows it. But nobody can say it. Added to that, when the Florents were attained after Alester made the catastrophic decision to support Renly and then Stannis, the Florent estate Brightwater Keep went to Garlan Tyrell. Not Melessa Florent - next Florent in line and Randyll's wife. Separately, little slights like this are nothing, and a man owes his liege lord an expression of loyalty. But, when these little slights begin to add up and it looks like defecting will be in your interests......

Plus, if Reach lords and landed knights and smallfolk suddenly drift over to Aegon as the Golden Company hope, then Randyll may decide to do to the Tyrells what the Tyrells did to the Gardeners during Aegon's Conquest. 

Mathis Rowan certainly will join the Golden Company. It remains to be seen how much force Aegon will need to convince him - say, will he and Connington be able to secure his support before they take Storm's End, and recruit him and his men into their ruse, or will they have to defeat him in battle.

In Tarly's case I just don't find the points in favor of a betrayal all that convincing. It is not that Randyll did not profit greatly during the War of the Five Kings, and there is no hint whatsoever that he even wanted to claim Brightwater in the name of his wife. In fact, we know that Tarly was the key figure behind the anti-Flotent/anti-Stannis movement among Renly's foot in the wake of Renly's death. Of the Tyrells only Loras was with Renly's army, so technically Randyll could have sided with his Florent in-laws and led most/all of Renly's foot to Stannis. And one assumes he would have done something like that had he had the feeling that Mace is constantly wronging him.

Randyll betraying Mace now would just make the story too easy. That would most likely effectively mean that the entire army under Randyll's command - which most likely will be the one marching against the Golden Company - will join Aegon, and that would be it. Tarly doesn't seem to be a man who leads an army into such a cowardly and treasonous move - at least not as long as he feels really wronged by Mace/Tommen. He reaped rewards for his role in the Battle of Duskendale, and eventually rose to the Small Council. One can assume that Mace was also very grateful to him after he got Margaery and her cousins out of the Great Sept.

I certainly could see Tarly reconsidering his options and joining Aegon if the battle turns against him and/or he is captured. But under such or similar circumstances Mace would also consider such a thing, and so Mace and Randyll might end up changing their allegiances together. I simply don't see Tarly as a man who betrays his liege lord without a good reason. And we really have to keep in mind that Mace's future actions will be greatly influenced/shaped by the immediate events in KL.

And then there is also the fact to consider that House Tyrell still has many branches. Say, Tarly betrays Mace and Margaery and defects to Aegon, but Willas/Olenna and Garlan do the same thing without consulting with the father. House Tyrell will then end up on the right side, reaping rewards from Aegon.

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On 1/30/2016 at 4:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

Mathis Rowan certainly will join the Golden Company. It remains to be seen how much force Aegon will need to convince him - say, will he and Connington be able to secure his support before they take Storm's End, and recruit him and his men into their ruse, or will they have to defeat him in battle.

In Tarly's case I just don't find the points in favor of a betrayal all that convincing. It is not that Randyll did not profit greatly during the War of the Five Kings, and there is no hint whatsoever that he even wanted to claim Brightwater in the name of his wife. In fact, we know that Tarly was the key figure behind the anti-Flotent/anti-Stannis movement among Renly's foot in the wake of Renly's death. Of the Tyrells only Loras was with Renly's army, so technically Randyll could have sided with his Florent in-laws and led most/all of Renly's foot to Stannis. And one assumes he would have done something like that had he had the feeling that Mace is constantly wronging him.

Randyll betraying Mace now would just make the story too easy. That would most likely effectively mean that the entire army under Randyll's command - which most likely will be the one marching against the Golden Company - will join Aegon, and that would be it. Tarly doesn't seem to be a man who leads an army into such a cowardly and treasonous move - at least not as long as he feels really wronged by Mace/Tommen. He reaped rewards for his role in the Battle of Duskendale, and eventually rose to the Small Council. One can assume that Mace was also very grateful to him after he got Margaery and her cousins out of the Great Sept.

I certainly could see Tarly reconsidering his options and joining Aegon if the battle turns against him and/or he is captured. But under such or similar circumstances Mace would also consider such a thing, and so Mace and Randyll might end up changing their allegiances together. I simply don't see Tarly as a man who betrays his liege lord without a good reason. And we really have to keep in mind that Mace's future actions will be greatly influenced/shaped by the immediate events in KL.

And then there is also the fact to consider that House Tyrell still has many branches. Say, Tarly betrays Mace and Margaery and defects to Aegon, but Willas/Olenna and Garlan do the same thing without consulting with the father. House Tyrell will then end up on the right side, reaping rewards from Aegon.

Maybe Randyll gets whacked when Tommen and Margaery fall, and Dickon takes over? Or maybe Randyll survives Tommen and Margaery and has to choose between Aegon and Daenerys? 

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51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Maybe Randyll gets whacked when Tommen and Margaery fall, and Dickon takes over? Or maybe Randyll survives Tommen and Margaery and has to choose between Aegon and Daenerys? 

Dickon is too young to be lord in his own right. He is several years younger than Samwell. Honestly, I don't really see Randyll Tarly's future. I think there might be a chance for him coming face to face with Samwell eventually, and if the Epilogue is any indication (meaning if Kevan is right) then Randyll is certainly set up to be an important player in KL now.

But in light of the historical tradition in the Reach that the noble houses seldom betray each other - and if they do, they are much more nicer to each other than those in other regions - I think it actually more likely that Mace and Randyll will make their moves together if they can (assuming neither of them dies or they are not separated).

And there are just to many unknown factors: How will things play out in KL with the Faith, the Lannisters and Tyrells? Who will have what amount of (real) power when the army marches against Aegon? How many Tyrell soldiers will remain in the capital? Who is going to win the battle? Who will react how when the news about the outcome reaches KL?

Assuming Tarly commands the army and Mace remains in KL as Lord Regent and Hand the deciding factor what Mace is going to do should Randyll lose the battle is not so much connected to that outcome but to his own relationship to King Tommen at that time. Is Tommen still alive? Is Margaery alive and acquitted? Did open hostilities break out between Cersei and Mace in the wake of Kevan's murder? Where is Myrcella?

Mace is not necessarily glued to Tommen until the very end. He can easily change sides again should the tide turn against him, and if the Lannisters unduly provoke him then he might just do such a thing.

Who ends up joining Dany is too far in the future to think about. The only thing we can be reasonably sure is that Dorne most likely is not going to join her. The Tyrells/Reach Lords most likely neither if they end up mostly in team Aegon one way or the other. If they don't, then I easily could see Willas forge an alliance with Daenerys.

If George wants to add a political dimension to the conflict between Sam and Randyll then having Tarly rise to prominence under Aegon's gang could make some sense. Sam has effectively joined team Dany back in AFfC, so he and his father would play in different teams in that scenario.

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19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Dickon is too young to be lord in his own right. He is several years younger than Samwell. Honestly, I don't really see Randyll Tarly's future. I think there might be a chance for him coming face to face with Samwell eventually, and if the Epilogue is any indication (meaning if Kevan is right) then Randyll is certainly set up to be an important player in KL now.

But in light of the historical tradition in the Reach that the noble houses seldom betray each other - and if they do, they are much more nicer to each other than those in other regions - I think it actually more likely that Mace and Randyll will make their moves together if they can (assuming neither of them dies or they are not separated).

And there are just to many unknown factors: How will things play out in KL with the Faith, the Lannisters and Tyrells? Who will have what amount of (real) power when the army marches against Aegon? How many Tyrell soldiers will remain in the capital? Who is going to win the battle? Who will react how when the news about the outcome reaches KL?

Assuming Tarly commands the army and Mace remains in KL as Lord Regent and Hand the deciding factor what Mace is going to do should Randyll lose the battle is not so much connected to that outcome but to his own relationship to King Tommen at that time. Is Tommen still alive? Is Margaery alive and acquitted? Did open hostilities break out between Cersei and Mace in the wake of Kevan's murder? Where is Myrcella?

Mace is not necessarily glued to Tommen until the very end. He can easily change sides again should the tide turn against him, and if the Lannisters unduly provoke him then he might just do such a thing.

Who ends up joining Dany is too far in the future to think about. The only thing we can be reasonably sure is that Dorne most likely is not going to join her. The Tyrells/Reach Lords most likely neither if they end up mostly in team Aegon one way or the other. If they don't, then I easily could see Willas forge an alliance with Daenerys.

If George wants to add a political dimension to the conflict between Sam and Randyll then having Tarly rise to prominence under Aegon's gang could make some sense. Sam has effectively joined team Dany back in AFfC, so he and his father would play in different teams in that scenario.

How does Mace turn on Tommen when his daughter is Tommen’s queen? 

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1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

How does Mace turn on Tommen when his daughter is Tommen’s queen? 

There are a number of options:

1. Should Margaery not be acquitted or even be executed, the bond between House Tyrell and King Tommen would be permanently severed.

2. Should the tide of the war turn against Mace - say, the Golden Company utterly crushes the Tyrell armies and Dorne openly declares for Aegon - Mace himself might annul the marriage between Tommen and Margaery to get out of that doomed alliance.

3. Mace himself might murder King Tommen to hand over the capital to the victorious Aegon (just as Aegon II was poisoned by his advisers in the face of certain doom).

4. Tommen dies earlier during a series of events that have nothing to do with Mace, allowing him to abandon the cause of Cersei's children.

5. Cersei flees with Tommen out of the city, effectively ending the alliance between the two houses as well as the marriage between Tommen and Margaery.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are a number of options:

1. Should Margaery not be acquitted or even be executed, the bond between House Tyrell and King Tommen would be permanently severed.

2. Should the tide of the war turn against Mace - say, the Golden Company utterly crushes the Tyrell armies and Dorne openly declares for Aegon - Mace himself might annul the marriage between Tommen and Margaery to get out of that doomed alliance.

3. Mace himself might murder King Tommen to hand over the capital to the victorious Aegon (just as Aegon II was poisoned by his advisers in the face of certain doom).

4. Tommen dies earlier during a series of events that have nothing to do with Mace, allowing him to abandon the cause of Cersei's children.

5. Cersei flees with Tommen out of the city, effectively ending the alliance between the two houses as well as the marriage between Tommen and Margaery.

Love the numbers. Keeps the eyes from glazing over. 

1. Like Obama on Hillary's emails, the high Septon already said there's no case against Margaery. 

2. If House Tyrell is crushed, why would Aegon want thrice we'd Margaery? 

3. Olena or Margaery might, but I doubt Mace would. 

4. That would be a deus ex machinations unless it was accomplished by the valonqar or the younger, more beautiful queen. 

5. How would that end the marriage? 

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2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Love the numbers. Keeps the eyes from glazing over. 

1. Like Obama on Hillary's emails, the high Septon already said there's no case against Margaery. 

2. If House Tyrell is crushed, why would Aegon want thrice we'd Margaery? 

3. Olena or Margaery might, but I doubt Mace would. 

4. That would be a deus ex machinations unless it was accomplished by the valonqar or the younger, more beautiful queen. 

5. How would that end the marriage? 

1. He never said that, actually. And do you know what he'll do when he is preparing to declare to the faithful that the Seven have revealed to him in a dream that this boy who calls himself Aegon Targaryen is indeed Prince Rhaegar's son and the rightful King of Westeros? He'll most likely help to destabilize the Lannister-Tyrell alliance if it still exists by that time. In addition there are other factors to consider:

With Kevan dead, we don't know whether Mace will go through with a Faith trial - he doesn't have to, after all, Margaery and her cousins have already been freed - and if he doesn't, the Faith most certainly will declare her guilty in absentia, effectively dissolving the marriage in the eyes of the Faith and those adhering to the Faith.

If there is a trial, Margaery will have to face seven judges who may not look all favorably on her case. Especially not if Tyene Sand ends up becoming one of them. She has been sent to infiltrate the Faith, after all. In addition, we have Varys still in the city, possibly the man behind the sudden rise of the new High Septon (whether the man himself knows that or not). He would also have an interest to see Margaery convicted, and may also have the means to ensure that.

2. Man, did I ever say anything about Aegon marrying Margaery?! Did Aegon the Conqueror marry Harlan Tyrell's daughter? No. Mace might just end the marriage between Tommen and Margaery to distance himself from the doomed king and join King Aegon in the last possible moment to save his face and his lordship/life.

3. Well, neither you no I really know what Mace is going to do when he feels he is a desperate situation. And you should reread the books - Margaery Tyrell isn't a murderous schemer. She might have been complicit in Joff's murder, but she is more a trained pawn in all that, not a player. Keep in mind that she is only 16. There is also no real textual basis for the assumption that Mace Tyrell didn't know what Olenna was doing and just played along.

4. That has nothing to do with the topic, either. The younger and more beautiful queen (which could be Arianne Martell, by the way, as Aegon's wife!) is going to take things away from Cersei. She is not supposed to kill her remaining children. And the valonqar doesn't have anything to do with the whole thing at all. He is going to kill Cersei - or apparently going to kill her - in the very end. This could very well be months or years after the death of her last child. Cersei is still the Lady of Casterly Rock, after all.

5, Well, because the spouses no longer lived together and neither Cersei nor Mace had any indication to allow their children to every share a room together? Tommen is the king. He doesn't have to jump through the motion to set aside a wife. He can just do it. Or his regent can in his name (which Cersei in such a situation would most likely claim to be).

In addition, you seem to fail the irrelevancy of the Tommen-Margaery marriage in the eyes of the Tyrells if the political landscape suddenly changes (i.e. if they lose a major battle against Aegon. A family member yours easily can be married to the member of a house you fight against. Alester Florent was Selyse's uncle yet he still supported Renly and had no problem attacking Stannis at Storm's End. Emmon Frey is Walder Frey's son yet Lord Walder had no problem either to war against the Lannisters.

If Mace Tyrell wants he can submit to Aegon without even annulling the marriage between Tommen and Margaery. Not all alliances are sealed with a marriage, and if Aegon gains the swords of House Tyrell he is not necessarily going to complain about the fact that Mace's daughter is married to some boy he is going to kill anyway if he can lay a hand on him. By the way, this is another option:

6. Mace Tyrell realizes Aegon will take the city whatever he is going to do. He has 'King Tommen' arrested and handed over to Aegon and the Golden Company along with KL and the Red Keep. Should Aegon and Jon Connington do the dirty work (i.e. kill young Tommen). That way his hands stay somewhat cleaner.

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I follow BryndenBFish's War and Politics of Ice and Fire.  One of his entries analyzed who these "friends in the Reach" would be in Winds.  https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/03/16/blood-of-the-conqueror-part-6-friends-in-the-reach/

Like many other users on the forum, he expects Tarly to swap sides.

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