Heresy 181

[WitteRaaf]

moved

[Black Crow]

32 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Sorry, but that's one highly inflated list, and this is what happens when you're more concerned with arriving at the outcome you want - or more specifically, don't want - than creating a plausible argument.

No Westerosi blood and treasure was spent on Viserys, Dany hasn't arrived, and Claimant Number Four is fan fiction. At best, Westeros is just beginning to "endure" Aegon, and we don't yet know what form Dany's invasion will take, especially with only two books left, and so many unresolved plots still set up in Essos with the Dothraki and Meereen.

It's certainly possible that Westeros could deal with Aegon, then Dany, THEN Jon, and begin to suffer "Targaryen fatigue," but Jon could also just as easily be raised to King in the North before Dany even arrives in Westeros, and ultimately even end up as a rival for the Iron Throne.

To be clear, I don't personally think that will happen, nor that Jon will sit the Iron Throne, but I also recognize that as pure personal intuition/subjective feeling, and not because there's any fundamental reason that GRRM can't plausibly place Jon on the Iron Throne as Jon Targaryen, if he so desired. Clearly, that's a plausible scenario to a significant chunk of readers.

Furthermore, I don't believe that "yet another Targaryen" would be a good enough reason for someone to lack support, even if you had laid out an accurate scenario. Westeros "should" be suffering from Baratheon fatigue by this point, yet White Harbor is still willing to throw in with Stannis; not because of his last name, or even because they love Stannis himself, but simply because he's the claimant who will offer "justice" against the Boltons and the Freys. If some fraction of the Houses believed they could prosper by attaching themselves to a theoretical Jon Targaryen, they would do so.

I'm not so sure that the list is that long. The point remains that the Targaryen loyalists kneeled to the Baratheons and then the Lannister-Baratheons. They've taken a battering, exacerbated by none of them [knowingly or at least openly] being sons of Valyria themselves - and in the history of Westeros, even if exaggerated 300 years is not a long time. Now, when some of them appear to be rallying to Aegon's banners, are the Tyrells and other old houses doing so because they want the Dragons back in or because they want the Lions out?

And afterwards what then? If defeated will they fold the dragon banners away again, and await the next Targaryen pretender, or with fingers burned to the bone [no pun intended] consider themselves lucky not to be watching events from spikes? Or if they are victorious, what then when Danaerys the Dragonlord tools up with her Dothraki horde? Who shall they line up behind then and once the blood has spilled and the ashes have fallen once again, why go through it all again for Jon the bastard son of Winterfell?

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

To be clear, I don't personally think that will happen, nor that Jon will sit the Iron Throne, but I also recognize that as pure personal intuition/subjective feeling, and not because there's any fundamental reason that GRRM can't plausibly place Jon on the Iron Throne as Jon Targaryen, if he so desired. Clearly, that's a plausible scenario to a significant chunk of readers.
 

Ok, once again noting and respecting what you say, I'll cut out the supporting chatter and say that I don't believe that King Jon Targaryen is a plausible outcome.

Rather its a fan-desired outcome, unsupported by the story so far, which proceeds from the assumption that this is all about Jon being the son of Rhaegar and therefore being the boy to rally everybody against the Others because he is the Targaryen heir, while I think that this isn't what the story is about at all, but rather that if Jon is to intervene decisively it will be because; 

"You are a son of Winterfell, a nephew of Benjen Stark. It must be you or no one." [my emphasis]

[LordImp]

26 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Ok, once again noting and respecting what you say, I'll cut out the supporting chatter and say that I don't believe that King Jon Targaryen is a plausible outcome.

Rather its a fan-desired outcome, unsupported by the story so far, which proceeds from the assumption that this is all about Jon being the son of Rhaegar and therefore being the boy to rally everybody against the Others because he is the Targaryen heir, while I think that this isn't what the story is about at all, but rather that if Jon is to intervene decisively it will be because; 

"You are a son of Winterfell, a nephew of Benjen Stark. It must be you or no one." [my emphasis]

 

While i agree with you here ,Jon leading all of humanity against the Others are IMO the worst that can happend.  But there must be some importance in Jon being Rhaegars son. 

[Black Crow]

Oh I dare say that it will have some significance, even if as I suggest its only a smokescreen. I just doubt that its quite as important as some people think. While the story has undoubtedly evolved since that first synopsis its pretty clear that it doesn't revolve around Jon's identity

[LordImp]

6 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Oh I dare say that it will have some significance, even if as I suggest its only a smokescreen. I just doubt that its quite as important as some people think. While the story has undoubtedly evolved since that first synopsis its pretty clear that it doesn't revolve around Jon's identity

Anyway i agree with you that Jons purpose is not to become Jon Targaryen.  

[Black Crow]

Given speculation that Jon will awake from his current little local difficulty with silvery white hair [to get over his current total lack of Targaryen features] it will be ironic if he wakes with starry blue eyes. Seriously though, unless its really only a flesh wound, I'd expect any transformation to be along the lines of Coldhands - and as a consequence of his Stark blood.

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

 Who shall they line up behind then and once the blood has spilled and the ashes have fallen once again, why go through it all again for Jon the bastard son of Winterfell?

 That depends on whether or not the circumstances are a rebellion on Jon's behalf, or if he's the only "legitimate" candidate left in a decimated Westeros--thus, he's rallied to as a proven leader with the right last name, vs. him being the center of yet another civil war.

As I laid out in that post, the only scenario where I see Jon going to war for the throne - and to be clear, I don't think this will happen - is if he's already ruling as King of the North due to Robb's letter of succession, and is thus already a factor in the Westerosi political landscape before Dany lands, perhaps even before the identity of his father is revealed.

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Ok, once again noting and respecting what you say, I'll cut out the supporting chatter and say that I don't believe that King Jon Targaryen is a plausible outcome.

Rather its a fan-desired outcome, unsupported by the story so far, which proceeds from the assumption that this is all about Jon being the son of Rhaegar and therefore being the boy to rally everybody against the Others because he is the Targaryen heir, while I think that this isn't what the story is about at all, but rather that if Jon is to intervene decisively it will be because; 

"You are a son of Winterfell, a nephew of Benjen Stark. It must beone." [my emphasis] you or no

 

Under the basic premise "Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen, and that's important" there are many possible ways that could play out besides just that single scenario, and many of those scenarios are the subject of discussion in the broader fandom, not just the "King Jon I Targaryen" scenario. Obviously, there are the more over-the-top magical scenarios, such as him riding one of Dany's dragons, or awakening an ice dragon, or being the true inheritor of Dawn-as-Lightbringer, but I think it's also possible that "his is the Song of Ice and Fire" could have more subtle implications, such as Jon brokering a new Pact between the various powers, rather than destroying them.

More broadly, I disagree entirely that such speculation is unsupported by the story. At a bare minimum, Jon is absolutely in the running as a "Prince that was Promised" candidate, regardless of what that actually means.

[Black Crow]

9 hours ago, Matthew. said:

 That depends on whether or not the circumstances are a rebellion on Jon's behalf, or if he's the only "legitimate" candidate left in a decimated Westeros--thus, he's rallied to as a proven leader with the right last name, vs. him being the center of yet another civil war.

As I laid out in that post, the only scenario where I see Jon going to war for the throne - and to be clear, I don't think this will happen - is if he's already ruling as King of the North due to Robb's letter of succession, and is thus already a factor in the Westerosi political landscape before Dany lands, perhaps even before the identity of his father is revealed.

They are good points, but I'll tackle them in reverse. First, we're agreed that Jon isn't going to raise his banners and go for the Iron Throne, whether his name is Snow, Stark or Rumpelstiltskin he is of the North and those likely to line up behind him are of the North whether you are into the Great Northern Conspiracy or not. Their attitude is summed up by that oaf Greatjon Umber who declared that they gave up the North's independence to the dragons and now the dragons are gone. They will fight for the North, not for the Iron throne once imposed on them, even if they do turn out to have a dragon of their very own.

Secondly and more importantly, I'd question whether if proclaimed a Targaryen [by who?] he really does have the right name. If this was a a conventional saga of political and dynastic infighting, there might be an argument for it, but we also have the magic and its not just parlour trick magic but deep magic with the real threat to Westeros not coming from the lions or the dragons but the Old Powers awakening beyond the Wall. The Targaryens might once have had their dragons [and Danaerys the Dragonlord still has a couple] but Westeros has a long history and the Targaryens are comparatively recent and short-lived incomers, alien to Westeros. Once the threat from the Old Powers becomes apparent are the old families going to rally behind a Targaryen, or are they going to rally behind the blood of Bran the Builder and perhaps the Last Hero?

[Black Crow]

9 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Under the basic premise "Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen, and that's important" there are many possible ways that could play out besides just that single scenario, and many of those scenarios are the subject of discussion in the broader fandom, not just the "King Jon I Targaryen" scenario. Obviously, there are the more over-the-top magical scenarios, such as him riding one of Dany's dragons, or awakening an ice dragon, or being the true inheritor of Dawn-as-Lightbringer, but I think it's also possible that "his is the Song of Ice and Fire" could have more subtle implications, such as Jon brokering a new Pact between the various powers, rather than destroying them.

More broadly, I disagree entirely that such speculation is unsupported by the story. At a bare minimum, Jon is absolutely in the running as a "Prince that was Promised" candidate, regardless of what that actually means.

I'm more inclined to see Bran, the Prince in Winterfell, as a possible candidate for the Prince that was promised, but overall, and especially given what GRRM has said both in and out of text, I'm wary of prophecies and especially foreign prophecies being applied to Westeros.

As to the "his is the Song of Ice and Fire" I do agree. I think Rhaegar in that vision wasn't saying that the babe [Aegon according to GRRM] embodied Ice and Fire but rather was destined to play his part in the song, which whether you argue that Rhaegar got it wrong and that Jon was the one, is certainly not the same as being Ice and Fire conjoined. 

[Melifeather]

I agree that this is a story of dualities. Black and white. Ice and fire. Jon and Dany. There are oodles of echoes and inversions in the story, and because of that, I don't believe Jon is half Targaryen. I think it's all an author's slight of hand, because he's cleverly provided clues for two separate arcs of ice and fire, but each arc is only half of their respective story. Jon, who is said to have more of the north in him than his siblings will end up having a father from the north. There must be two sides to maintain balance, so I don't ascribe to the argument that Jon is both ice and fire. Magic, on the other hand...eliminating magic just may be what's needed to save humanity.

[Armstark]

21 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I don't think that embodying Ice and Fire in a single individual is really going to be the answer, either at a practical or a spiritual level. Everything we've actually been given so far from the Reeds' oath on down suggests that two are needed to balance each other rather than create what would be someone or something all powerful - without any checks and balances.

 

Who's better equipped to bring back the balance between Ice and Fire than Jon Snow who embodies that balance himself through his parentage?

[LordImp]

1 hour ago, Armstark said:

 

Who's better equipped to bring back the balance between Ice and Fire than Jon Snow who embodies that balance himself through his parentage?

This. 

[LordImp]

Whats the heretics toughts on a ice dragon? 

[Melifeather]

23 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Whats the heretics toughts on a ice dragon? 

How about a giant, icy kracken?

George the Marvel comics fan has been drawing inspiration from his favorites from back in his day and there is a giant buried in the north:

http://thelasthearth.freeforums.net/post/10304/thread

[Matthew.]

9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

 The Targaryens might once have had their dragons [and Danaerys the Dragonlord still has a couple] but Westeros has a long history and the Targaryens are comparatively recent and short-lived incomers, alien to Westeros. Once the threat from the Old Powers becomes apparent are the old families going to rally behind a Targaryen, or are they going to rally behind the blood of Bran the Builder and perhaps the Last Hero?

Again, if Jon is the last "legitimate" candidate standing - and maybe legitimate is defined in this case as pertaining to his theoretical halting of the Other invasion, proving his worthiness to lead - I could still see him being placed on the Iron Throne by a Grand Council, and being royal born on both sides certainly makes that path easier than being a baseborn bastard. I personally still place better odds on Dany continuing to hold the IT until the story ends, but King Jon is just...not at all implausible. If Daemon Blackfyre could have been king, Jon could be king.

As to the rest, 300 years is a massive amount of time, as far as human experience goes. More significantly, though, part of what makes the Targaryen regime work in the first place is the fact that they're outsiders. No old resentments or feuds to get past--everyone, everywhere bowed to the Dragon, which makes their return an easier banner to unite behind than any of the old families. "Blood of Bran the Builder" is a far less relevant selling point outside of the north, particularly in the more Andalized regions. For example, the Reach never knew the rule of House Stark, so why would they long for the restoration of something they never knew in the first place? They knew the rule of the Gardeners...and the Dragon. And so it goes, everywhere outside of the North.

8 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I'm more inclined to see Bran, the Prince in Winterfell, as a possible candidate for the Prince that was promised, but overall, and especially given what GRRM has said both in and out of text, I'm wary of prophecies and especially foreign prophecies being applied to Westeros.

As to the "his is the Song of Ice and Fire" I do agree. I think Rhaegar in that vision wasn't saying that the babe [Aegon according to GRRM] embodied Ice and Fire but rather was destined to play his part in the song, which whether you argue that Rhaegar got it wrong and that Jon was the one, is certainly not the same as being Ice and Fire conjoined. 

Rhaegar's statement is ambiguous enough to be read many ways. To be repetitive, I'm not specifically arguing that Jon is TpTWP, simply that he's one of the more plausible candidates. Besides the whole parentage thing, he has also had a vision in which he's armored in Ice and armed with Fire. Again, I'm not sold that he's TPtwP, especially if TPtwP is the same thing as Azor Ahai, but I don't know why it's difficult to at least acknowledge him as one of the better candidates.
___

Though, personally, I think that flaming sword visions - such as Jon's, or the one Jaime has involving Brienne, or Dany's dream of her ancestors in aGoT - have been greatly misunderstood in-world by the fire priests, and have nothing to do with the R'hllorist messiah. Instead, I think that's just the way that Valyrian steel, a magical object, appears in visions--in the same way that Mel "sees" Bran as a wolf, or Quaithe sees various figures as some essence of their identity. Thus, people like Quaithe and Marwyn and even Jojen might have a vision of someone with Valyrian steel, and come to one conclusion, while Melisandre has the same vision, and thinks she's glimpsing Azor Ahai come again because she's blinded by superstition.

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

Though, personally, I think that flaming sword visions - such as Jon's, or the one Jaime has involving Brienne, or Dany's dream of her ancestors in aGoT - have been greatly misunderstood in-world by the fire priests, and have nothing to do with the R'hllorist messiah. Instead, I think that's just the way that Valyrian steel, a magical object, appears in visions--in the same way that Mel "sees" Bran as a wolf, or Quaithe sees various figures as some essence of their identity. Thus, people like Quaithe and Marwyn and even Jojen might have a vision of someone with Valyrian steel, and come to one conclusion, while Melisandre has the same vision, and thinks she's glimpsing Azor Ahai come again because she's blinded by superstition.

That's an intriguing idea and reminiscent of the sword Stormbringer wielded by Moorcock's hero Elric of Melnibone, it wasn't of course a sword forged of steel but a soul-eating demon in the form of a sword. Whilst I don't think GRRM is going that far I could easily see that Valyrian blades forged from blood and magic might have that kind of "signature"

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, Armstark said:

 

Who's better equipped to bring back the balance between Ice and Fire than Jon Snow who embodies that balance himself through his parentage?

As I said, I rather see the balance coming from two opposed but equal sides rather than a single individual who might combine or embody both but would have no checks and balances

[Black Crow]

2 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Again, if Jon is the last "legitimate" candidate standing - and maybe legitimate is defined in this case as pertaining to his theoretical halting of the Other invasion, proving his worthiness to lead - I could still see him being placed on the Iron Throne by a Grand Council, and being royal born on both sides certainly makes that path easier than being a baseborn bastard. I personally still place better odds on Dany continuing to hold the IT until the story ends, but King Jon is just...not at all implausible. If Daemon Blackfyre could have been king, Jon could be king.

As to the rest, 300 years is a massive amount of time, as far as human experience goes. More significantly, though, part of what makes the Targaryen regime work in the first place is the fact that they're outsiders. No old resentments or feuds to get past--everyone, everywhere bowed to the Dragon, which makes their return an easier banner to unite behind than any of the old families. "Blood of Bran the Builder" is a far less relevant selling point outside of the north, particularly in the more Andalized regions. For example, the Reach never knew the rule of House Stark, so why would they long for the restoration of something they never knew in the first place? They knew the rule of the Gardeners...and the Dragon. And so it goes, everywhere outside of the North.

Rhaegar's statement is ambiguous enough to be read many ways. To be repetitive, I'm not specifically arguing that Jon is TpTWP, simply that he's one of the more plausible candidates. Besides the whole parentage thing, he has also had a vision in which he's armored in Ice and armed with Fire. Again, I'm not sold that he's TPtwP, especially if TPtwP is the same thing as Azor Ahai, but I don't know why it's difficult to at least acknowledge him as one of the better candidates.
 

I think fundamentally we're not so far apart in that while acknowledging the possibility of King Jon Targaryen its a very unlikely possibility. I'm not even entirely sold on his being King in the North/King of Winter, but really do dount that High King of Westeros is either achievable or desireable.

[Black Crow]

And at this point as I'm about to go out for a couple of hours I'd say its time to close Heresy 181 and continue this conversation on Heresy 182.

 

See you over there.