The Changeling ft. Myrcella

[Good Guy Garlan]

So I think Myrcella is either dead or dying because of Darkstar's poisoned blade and the Martells replaced her with Rosamund to fool Balon Swann

Potential evidence of Darkstar using a poisoned blade:

1) Doran calls him "the most dangerous man in Dorne" and

Oberyn thought he was "

poison"

2) Darkstar says: "I was weaned on venom, Dalt. Any viper takes a bite off me will rue it"

3) Before the attack on Myrcella: "[Darkstar] unsheathed his longsword, sat upon the lip of the dry well, and began to hone the blade with an oilstone". With oil...or poison?

Potential evidence for Doran passing Rosamund off as Myrcella:

1) Good,” she said. “And the handmaid? Is she convincing?”  

“From a distance. The Imp picked her for this purpose, over many girls of nobler birth. Myrcella helped her curl her hair, and painted the dots on her face herself. They are distant kin. Lannisport teems with Lannys, Lannetts, Lantells, and lesser Lannisters, and half of them have that yellow hair. Dressed in Myrcella’s bedrobe with the maester’s salve smeared across her face... she might even have fooled me, in a dim light."

2) "A Lannister of Lannisport, not a Lannister of Casterly Rock. Her hair is the same color as mine, but straight instead of curly. Rosamund doesn’t truly favor me, but when she dresses up in my clothes people who don’t know us think she’s me."

Balon Swann hardly knows Myrcella, not the way Arys did. He'd be easily fooled by Rosamund.

Wait a minute, Myrcella is on her way to KL!

Is she, really? How do we know for sure, did Arianne see her after the attack? Not that I remember. All she has is Doran's word. 

What's clever about this twist is that it adds a time bomb element for the Martells. It's only a matter of time before Cersei finds out what really happened, as Doran can only stall so much. He'd be desperate and desperate people make rash decisions like supporting Aegon despite the lack of proof he's real.

So I think Nym went with Rosamund to KL, obviously not in the hopes of fooling Cersei, but as a stalling technique. Doran is hoping, praying, that before Nym reaches the city, either the Quentyn/Dany plot or the Aegon/Arianne one come to fruition, so Dorne can finally declare war with the spears conveniently marching with Nym, knowing either Dany or Aegon will have his back. 

[Wolf's Bane]

Ser Garlan,

I will wait to comment on Myrcella's identity or changeling until I have read AFFC again.  Let me comment on just Darkstar for now.

Why he is dangerous?  True, he is a dangerous man in the same way Oberyn was.  He's skilled with sword and weapons, but his danger is his willingness to play outside the rules and use poison.  Chivalry hates that, as poison allows the weaker to defeat the stronger.  It is a woman's weapon to them.  Darkstar willing to use it make him a wildcard. 

Now, with all of that said, I believe what makes Darkstar dangerous is who he is.  It is not proven.  But, there is a good chance that Darkstar is a bastard of King Aerys II on a Dornish woman.  His hair is reminiscent of another joining between Targaryen and dark-haired Dornish.  I can see potential problems for Dorne if the Martells throw their support for Aegon/Griff.  Darkstar could reveal his identity.  Blackfyre vs. Darkstar.  I can see Dorne getting torn in two, with one side supporting Aegon and the other supporting Darkstar.  Why would they support Darkstar?  Obviously, that would depend on who his mother is.  I don't think Darkstar would sit idly by as a Blackfyre makes a claim for the throne.  Bastard or not, he might get it into that handsome head of his to make his claim for the throne. 

[Slender Aimry Hill]

Hang on; you're saying 1) Darkstar attacked Myrcella 2) The Martells sent Rosamond with Balon

Did they then remove Rosamond's ear too? And how/why on earth would she then cooperate? Or have I misunderstood?

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think this theory has merit, definitely not a sure thing but also not entirely unlikely.  To add some more evidence, not only did Oberyn refer to Darkstar as poison, but Darkstar was his squire, and we know for a fact that Oberyn poisoned his own blades.

I think Doran has a plan to keep his deception going as well.  The plot he mentions to have his band attacked while traveling through the Kingswood provides the perfect opportunity for "Myrcella" to be killed, and it could easily be done in a way that would make her unrecognizable.  It would also be hard for Cersei to blame the Martells if she is the 1 who set up the attack, and the attack takes place in the Crownlands/Stormlands rather than in Dorne.

[Lord Fauntleroy]

Is it kosher to consider the HBO events as possible hints?

If so, the recent events in season 5 may imply that this theory has potential.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Hang on; you're saying 1) Darkstar attacked Myrcella 2) The Martells sent Rosamond with Balon

Did they then remove Rosamond's ear too? And how/why on earth would she then cooperate? Or have I misunderstood?

Not necessarily. Maybe they just bandaged up her head so it wouldn't show, but if push comes to shove, considering everything that's at stake, what's an ear of a little Lannister girl for Doran and/or the Sand Snakes? And it's not like they need Rosamund's cooperation. She's a hostage, they could've threatened her to pretend to be Myrcella and blame Darkstar for her wound, what's she gonna do, put up a fight?

[Slender Aimry Hill]

Why go to the trouble of revealing the injury at all, when the (highly biddable in your scenario) girl you have is in fact uninjured? Too elaborate; fails the ol' razor for me...

[Red Man Racey]

Who all actually knows that Myrcella is sans ear? If the only people that know are loyal (to Dorne) or dead then it's probably better to just pretend that little event never occurred.

Totally forgot that the information about the attack had already leaked and pretty much everyone knows.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Why go to the trouble of revealing the injury at all, when the (highly biddable in your scenario) girl you have is in fact uninjured? Too elaborate; fails the ol' razor for me...

Maybe the intel about the ear leaked before Doran could prevent it. If you think about it, why would Doran voluntarily tell the Lannisters about Arys' death and Myrcella's injuries when he could've made something up, like an accident or something? Sure, Balon Swann would be very suspicious, but it's not like Doran's planning him to be long for this world. 

Ser Garlan,

I will wait to comment on Myrcella's identity or changeling until I have read AFFC again.  Let me comment on just Darkstar for now.

Why he is dangerous?  True, he is a dangerous man in the same way Oberyn was.  He's skilled with sword and weapons, but his danger is his willingness to play outside the rules and use poison.  Chivalry hates that, as poison allows the weaker to defeat the stronger.  It is a woman's weapon to them.  Darkstar willing to use it make him a wildcard. 

Now, with all of that said, I believe what makes Darkstar dangerous is who he is.  It is not proven.  But, there is a good chance that Darkstar is a bastard of King Aerys II on a Dornish woman.  His hair is reminiscent of another joining between Targaryen and dark-haired Dornish.  I can see potential problems for Dorne if the Martells throw their support for Aegon/Griff.  Darkstar could reveal his identity.  Blackfyre vs. Darkstar.  I can see Dorne getting torn in two, with one side supporting Aegon and the other supporting Darkstar.  Why would they support Darkstar?  Obviously, that would depend on who his mother is.  I don't think Darkstar would sit idly by as a Blackfyre makes a claim for the throne.  Bastard or not, he might get it into that handsome head of his to make his claim for the throne. 

My take is that Darkstar is not only dangerous because of his poison skills, but also because he's a witness to Arianne's treasonous move against the Iron Throne.

[Slender Aimry Hill]

I think I preferred the theory of Arys tricking Arianne, on the whole, and Rosamond taking the blow. In which case they'd be sending Rosamond but Myrcella is still in Dorne, uninjured, saved up for some other horrid fate...

[Good Guy Garlan]

I don't think that makes much sense because A) Arianne knew Myrcella from the moment she stepped off the boat, and B ) if Arys made the switch on the boat before arriving, he would've tricked the Prince of Dorne into marrying his son to a girl who's not his betrothed. That would be the utmost treason, tantamount to an act of war. Arys was dumb, but not that dumb, and C) Rosamund would have to be like the Westerosi Meryl Streep for not breaking character even in tense situations of life or death, which I would find incredibly implausible

I find it easier to believe that Qyburn's informants told Kevan about the ear

[Slender Aimry Hill]

Yes; it is tricky too. On the whole the most likely version seems to be the surface one - Myrcella was attacked; Myrcella is coming home; Rosamond faked some spots.

But that would be quite dull. For some reason - I think probably mainly because it's a sub-par plot in terms of characterisation and readability - I, like you, want there to be more to it.

So Westerosi Meryl or a little girl who doesn't give the game away even when the nice old gouty man chops her ear off it is; until someone has an even better idea!!

[purple-eyes]

There is certainly something about the poison of darkstar. 

It is indeed possible that the blade had poison which claimed Myrcella's life slowly. 

but should not balon see Myrcella many times in KL?

How can he think rosamond is Myrcella?

 

[Good Guy Garlan]

Yes; it is tricky too. On the whole the most likely version seems to be the surface one - Myrcella was attacked; Myrcella is coming home; Rosamond faked some spots.

But that would be quite dull. For some reason - I think probably mainly because it's a sub-par plot in terms of characterisation and readability - I, like you, want there to be more to it.

So Westerosi Meryl or a little girl who doesn't give the game away even when the nice old gouty man chops her ear off it is; until someone has an even better idea!!

Exactly! 

It'd also bother me because it'd be a continuation of the status quo. The same Small Council, only with Randyll and Nym, Mace trying to marry Myrcella to Willas, etc. It's like Myrcella is an extra life for the Lannister-Tyrell regime, but I'm more than ready for a drastic regime change. 

[tallTale]

I believe in the theory that it was Ser Arys who made the Myrcella switch for the following reasons:

First off the fake Myrcella plot falls in line with all the other fake young lordlings:

• Arya/Jeyne Poole
• Sansa/Alayne Stone
• Bran&Rickon/The winterfell stable boys

Now let's look at Ser Arys:

Arys clearly tells Arriane that the only way for Myrcella to be safe is if no one knows where she is. He doesn't trust the Dornish and for good reason.

Arys' story about fooling Myrcelas septons and personal Lannister guards by telling them she had chicken pox was very flimsy. That story wouldn't work on all of them.

Looking at how Ser Arys dies:

He blindly leaves Myrcella to defend herself and jumps into a seemingly pointless suicide because he felt too ashamed to live? I don't care how good that bad pussy of Arriane was, he would never do that. He would die protecting the little princess. Also Arys was probably was the one to talk and let Prince Doran know about Arriane's plot, hence him proudly wearing the white cloak again. The wearing of the cloak is a clear tell he had his suicide planned and wanted to make sure no one could extrapolate her true whereabouts from him.

 

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

I believe in the Myrclella switch for the following reasons:

The fake Myrcella plot falls in line with all the other fake young lordlings:

• JeynePoole/Arya
• Sansa/Alayne Stone

Arys clearly tells Arriane that the only way for Myrcella to be safe is that no one knows where she is.

Looking at how Sir Arys dies:

He blindly leaves Myrcella to defend herself and into a seemingly pointless suicide. I don't care how good that bad pussy of Arriane was, he would never do that. He would die protecting her. It was the only way to make sure to that no one could torture the truth out of him. He probably did talk and let Price Doran know about Arriane's plot, but it was mostly to get himself thereby protecting Myrcella's true whereabouts and get back some of that honor he lost.

 

 

I like this^ not totally convinced but I like it!

I think this theory has merit, definitely not a sure thing but also not entirely unlikely.  To add some more evidence, not only did Oberyn refer to Darkstar as poison, but Darkstar was his squire, and we know for a fact that Oberyn poisoned his own blades.

Where did we learn that Darkstar was Oberyn's squire?

[purple-eyes]

I believe in the Myrclella switch for the following reasons:

The fake Myrcella plot falls in line with all the other fake young lordlings:

• JeynePoole/Arya
• Sansa/Alayne Stone

Arys clearly tells Arriane that the only way for Myrcella to be safe is that no one knows where she is.

Looking at how Sir Arys dies:

He blindly leaves Myrcella to defend herself and into a seemingly pointless suicide. I don't care how good that bad pussy of Arriane was, he would never do that. He would die protecting her. It was the only way to make sure to that no one could torture the truth out of him. He probably did talk and let Prince Doran know about Arriane's plot, but it was mostly to get himself killed thereby protecting Myrcella's true whereabouts and get back some of that honor he lost. Hence him proudly wearing the white cloak again. If captured alive he could be tortured into revealing the truth.

 

 

this is interesting but Arianne certainly knew Rosamond and Mycella. 

How can she fail to figure out who is who?

 

[Alysanne Donnelly]

I won't discount the possibility of poison, but there are two points that I am wholly unconvinced on.

1. The fruition of the Queenmaker plot is that Doran realized he needs to be 100% upfront and honest with Arianne. Doran not telling Arianne about Myrcella's poisoning just doesn't make sense.
2.  Sending Rosamund as Myrcella to KL and Cersei wouldn't be a stalling technique, it would be Doran showing his hand before he had his plans set in motion. It would show the Martells openly declaring war against the crown by taking the Princess hostage. Doran isn't willing to do anything that reveals his "kill the Lannisters" plan until he is 100% ready to win the war.

[Slender Aimry Hill]

Hmmm. They're hard to tell apart in a dim light. And Arianne...well, she's a bit of a low wattage bulb herself...

But yeah. There must, one way or the other, be some point to Rosamund that doesn't involve measles.

[tallTale]

this is interesting but Arianne certainly knew Rosamond and Mycella. 

How can she fail to figure out who is who?

 

Damn you for finding any potential holes lol

Truthfully this is confusing to me as well. It would be simple if Cersei had this planned from the beginning but it sounds like she doesn't. Cersei hears about Myrcella being hurt and is surprised.

I would imagine the switch had to have been made on the boat early on, but perhaps Arriane just didn't notice the switch before leaving on their doomed adventure. 

One thing for sure is that having Sir Arys doing this all on his own wouldn't make sense. Someone is working with him.