De-Romancing the Rose: Bael, Politics, Kinslaying, and Spite

[purple-eyes]

Because in the OP, Rhaegar is painted as part of a pawn to do the bidding, the errand boy.

However, we read in the story that Rhaegar does not really see eye-to-eye with his Father.  There were deep divisions already before Harrenhal, before the placing of the laurels on Lyanna's lap, not withstanding Aerys' madness, but it was enough to drive a wedge where the atmosphere in the Red Keep was similar to the time during the Dance. 

Varys also played the role of politicking like Littlefinger, but yet was not mentioned as part of the significant role of influencing the king in the OP.

 

I always feel that this is somehow an exaggeration made by yandel and pycell. 

To make Targ look bad. 

Rhaegar and Aerys seem to care each other during rebellion. 

I even feel that rhaegar did not sponsor HH tourney. It was a rumor of varys. 

[Sly Wren]

Because in the OP, Rhaegar is painted as part of a pawn to do the bidding, the errand boy.

Not a pawn per se. But in delivering the roses--yes, I think Aerys has the Bael-like motive. Which would mean Rhaegar likely had to deliver the message. Since I can't think of anything in the text that gives Rhaegar the Bael-like motive.

However, we read in the story that Rhaegar does not really see eye-to-eye with his Father.  There were deep divisions already before Harrenhal, before the placing of the laurels on Lyanna's lap, not withstanding Aerys' madness, but it was enough to drive a wedge where the atmosphere in the Red Keep was similar to the time during the Dance. 

Agreed. But we also know that before leaving for the Trident, Rhaegar flat-out tells Jaime he's unwilling to take Jaime with him because Aerys needs Jaime there. To make Aerys feel safe from Tywin, whom he fears more than Robert. Rhaegar won't remove that crutch. But will come back afterwards and make changes.

In short--Rhaegar is trying to keep Aerys steady until he can safely make changes via a council. And this is in the height of a war. Rhaegar doesn't seem to even have tried to get Elia and the children back to Dragonstone. Based on this limited information, Rhaegar really seems like he's trying to keep the peace until the right time for change.

So, at Harrenhal, when Aerys unexpectedly attends, possibly because he fears plotting, could see Rhaegar in the position of trying to keep the peace.

When Jaime is in the Riverlands, he thinks about how he needs to get Cersei away from Tommen. Cersei--whom Jaime himself says is becoming like Aerys. He doesn't want her dead--just strategically removed.

Similarly, can't see that Rhaegar has yet shown signs of wanting his father dead. Or creating a big kerfuffle. But he knows changes must be made. And wants to make them peacefully. So, when Aerys shows up at Harrenhal, paranoid, can see Rhaegar doing what he must to keep his father steady. Including insulting the Starks.

Varys also played the role of politicking like Littlefinger, but yet was not mentioned as part of the significant role of influencing the king in the OP.

Varys was indeed politicking at the time. I didn't bring him up largely because I couldn't think of any specific role he might have played re: the roses alluded to in the texts. Are you thinking of something specific? Vs. contexts established in Game and carried through the rest of the books?

[IceFire125]

Varys was indeed politicking at the time. I didn't bring him up largely because I couldn't think of any specific role he might have played re: the roses alluded to in the texts. Are you thinking of something specific? Vs. contexts established in Game and carried through the rest of the books?

None.

But you posit the claim that it was all plan by the king.  Varys was pretty much the only person Aerys' trusted.  I could argue, the limited time of the lapses that Aerys was himself and not the madman, he actually trust his son Rhaegar, but even that soon faded away... maybe to Varys' delight, when that moment Aerys ordered to open the gates to Tywin and the Lannister forces, which was Rhaegar's advice to his Father, to summon the former hand for assistance, it was to his doom.

My personal tinfoil?

What if someone of Varys' ilk, meaning to have the wildlings and the Starks to fight each other and thus leading to the Starks being weakened, was the one that sent the daring letter, not known to Lord Stark at that time, to the young Bael.

What if that someone who is closely ally to the faction that benefited... someone belonging to House Bolton?

 

 

[Regular John Umber]

 This is great. I've always thought that the blue roses are more thorn that petal, and are viewed as an insult by the Starks because of the Bael story. That's really why Brandon goes off at Rhaegar.

[Tijgy]

I am not sure the Aerys and Rhaegar would now the story of Bael the Bard. IMO A lot of stories of the North are not that well know by people in the south. However Rhaegar was quite studious so he might read it but that does not explain Aerys would know the concrete story. 

I must admit giving flowers to a maid by married man is an insult towards his wife, the maid, her family and betrothed. But it is still weird how Aerys would know of the exact color of Bael's rose if he never heard the story. However the blue rose in itself does refer the most to maid (="not plucked flower") of the North. 

Even if it was not slight by Aerys, the story of Bael makes us understand why the Starks really saw this as an insult. By giving the blue rose to Lyanna, Rhaegar actually (intentionally or not intentionally) showed to them he does want to steal her like Bael stole the Starks' maid. Rulers, you should now the culture of your entire population. You might insult them if you don't. 

I also like the parallel between the fact we do not really know how the Stark's maid felt about Bael and how Lyanna felt about Rhaegar. 

However I do have a little remark about this theory. According to you, the rose meant deceive, ... I have a little difficulty to rhyme this with Lyanna's love for flowers. Ned bringing her flowers, the fact she died with roses near her , ... 

Addendum: In the books the blue rose (petals) are mostly associated with Lyanna and blood, which is indeed kind of sinister. When Ned is just talking bringing her flowers to the grave and her fondness for it, he just use the more generic term of flowers. 

[Daendrew]

I've only read Hero with A Thousand Faces--a while ago. Will have to have a look at the Arthurian work.

Don't know Wolfe's work--but you's recommend it? 

Thus far yes. GRRM said he is the best SF&F writer for creating literary puzzles. He said his New Sun work is a masterpiece.

[Sly Wren]

None.

But you posit the claim that it was all plan by the king.  Varys was pretty much the only person Aerys' trusted.  I could argue, the limited time of the lapses that Aerys was himself and not the madman, he actually trust his son Rhaegar, but even that soon faded away... maybe to Varys' delight, when that moment Aerys ordered to open the gates to Tywin and the Lannister forces, which was Rhaegar's advice to his Father, to summon the former hand for assistance, it was to his doom.

If the World Book's POV's can be trusted (a tricky proposition), seems like Aerys' relationship with Rhaegar could be sketchy at times. Aerys' comments on Rhaenys. The fact that Rhaegar is loved and Aerys seems to dislike this. His paranoia after Duskendale and some rumors re: others wanting Rhaegar to be king sooner than Aerys' demise. 

All of that, plus the fact that Aerys attends Harrenhal when he was not expected to, suggests that Aerys may not have trusted Rhaegar all that much.

As for the "plan" of the roses: I'm not sure I can imply that the southron king knew anything about Bael the Bard. Baelish doesn't show any sign of knowing what his name references. Yet he still follows the basic context--Martin actually has Baelish and Mance START the context before we get Bael in Clash. So, the plan may just have been to insult the Starks with the "honor." How Aerys would know that the Starks would see it as an insult? Not sure. But we do know he had enough knowledge to know Tywin would see appointing Jaime to the KG as an enormous insult.

My personal tinfoil?

What if someone of Varys' ilk, meaning to have the wildlings and the Starks to fight each other and thus leading to the Starks being weakened, was the one that sent the daring letter, not known to Lord Stark at that time, to the young Bael.

What if that someone who is closely ally to the faction that benefited... someone belonging to House Bolton?

Could be. But, again--I think we need more data re: the southerners knowing the specifics of Bael. Vs. Martin setting up a context of plotters who scheme and spite enemies through their children. Seems like there's at least a chance that Bael is a symbol/context for readers. And for Jon in the North. But not necessarily known and acted on directly by southerners like Aerys and Cersei, who seem perfectly capable of scheming Bael-style without knowing the tale. 

[Sly Wren]

 This is great. I've always thought that the blue roses are more thorn that petal, and are viewed as an insult by the Starks because of the Bael story. That's really why Brandon goes off at Rhaegar.

Yeah--the rose crown as love story or honor--I just can't make that fit. And Rhaegar as spiteful? Can't find that either. But Aerys--we have precedent. And the context of the insult, etc.

As I said above--I'm waffling a bit on whether Aerys would need to know the story of Bael to still make the insult work. Or if we are missing other context re: why the Starks see it as SO insulting. We know the context of Tywin and Jaime. It's specific and personal. So, could see the insult being more on those lines.

But, of course, I can't rule out that Aerys gave the roses with some knowledge of Bael. Not without more data.

[Sly Wren]

I am not sure the Aerys and Rhaegar would now the story of Bael the Bard. IMO A lot of stories of the North are not that well know by people in the south. However Rhaegar was quite studious so he might read it but that does not explain Aerys would know the concrete story. 

I must admit giving flowers to a maid by married man is an insult towards his wife, the maid, her family and betrothed. But it is still weird how Aerys would know of the exact color of Bael's rose if he never heard the story. However the blue rose in itself does refer the most to maid (="not plucked flower") of the North. 

Yeah--the fact that it's an insult seems really clear. And I agree re: Aerys or any southerner knowing about Bael. Not sure we know enough to make that leap. But I can see the insult working either way.

Even if it was not slight by Aerys, the story of Bael makes us understand why the Starks really saw this as an insult. By giving the blue rose to Lyanna, Rhaegar actually (intentionally or not intentionally) showed to them he does want to steal her like Bael stole the Starks' maid. Rulers, you should now the culture of your entire population. You might insult them if you don't. 

Fair point. Though I really do think the Knight of the Laughing Tree story, the precedent of taking Jaime from Tywin (both of these stories show up in the same novel, Storm, and take place at the same tournament), plus the context set up in the two books before Storm--really seems like Martin's set this up as an intended insult. Cersei doesn't impugn Marg's honor to "steal" her. Just to strike a blow at the family. To teach them a lesson--and possibly get rid of them. So, I could see Aerys' insult as being just that--a smack down of upstarts he suspects of plotting. And using a teenage girl to do it (ugh!).

I also like the parallel between the fact we do not really know how the Stark's maid felt about Bael and how Lyanna felt about Rhaegar. 

However I do have a little remark about this theory. According to you, the rose meant deceive, ... I have a little difficulty to rhyme this with Lyanna's love for flowers. Ned bringing her flowers, the fact she died with roses near her , ... 

Addendum: In the books the blue rose (petals) are mostly associated with Lyanna and blood, which is indeed kind of sinister. When Ned is just talking bringing her flowers to the grave and her fondness for it, he just use the more generic term of flowers. 

1. 

2. Re: roses and deceit: can't see how the texts say roses ALWAYS mean deceit. Only in the context of Bael. Can see Lyanna's still loving roses, even if they had once been used against her. But it might depend on her psyche--would she go off all chocolate because it once was used to mock her, etc? Or compartmentalize? Can't think of how on earth we have enough info on this. . . .But I can think of ways someone would still love flowers, despite one horrible misuse of them.

3. Agreed on the addendum. And Ned's memories of the rose petals and the crown seem very sinister. The context seems to count. But can't think of anything that says Ned thinks all flowers or even roses are sinister--that he automatically lumps them all together with Lya's death. Seems pretty context specific. 

[PrettyPig]

 

 

--BUT—Ned and Howland killed Arthur. Didn’t bring a head to Starfall. But did return Arthur’s  completely unique sword to Ashara. Who threw herself from the Palestone Sword.

--So, the Stark in Winterfell killing his nephew’s father? His own child’s uncle?

B. What about the woman throwing herself from the tower in grief over the father’s death? The warning against kinslaying?

--Lyanna didn’t throw herself from a tower. She died in a room that smelled of blood and roses.

--So, who did throw herself from a tower after a Stark returned from a fight/battle with the artifact of a dead man? Ashara Dayne. From the Palestone Sword in Starfall.

--Ashara’s tower death is brought up in Game, Storm, and Dance. She is mentioned as dead (cause omitted) in Clash, the same novel where Ygritte tells Bael’s tale—with its tower suicide.

--And in Feast, the only novel without a direct mention of Ashara?

QUOTE:

Hidden Content:   He is a man of the Night's Watch, [Arya] thought, as he sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead. The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince. And the singer should be on the Wall. Feast, Cat of the Canals.

 

--Plus—Baelish throws Lysa from the tower after a fight over the stolen Stark maid. The daughter of the woman “stolen” from him by two successive Starks. One of whom Baelish helped get dead.

--Doesn’t bode well for Baelish’s calling Sansa his daughter if this story ends in the “father’s” death.

 

 

Very nice work overall, Sly Wren!   I will need to reread a few times to get my mind around it. 

Can you clairfy the above portion for me?   It's early and neither my cold medicine nor my coffee has kicked in, so I'm not processing what you're getting at with Ashara.  

I've been working on something related that I *think* might bolster your proposition, but I want to make sure I understand what you're saying about Ashara Dayne and her 'role' in things.

 

ETA:   I can't see the quoted portion showing up -  I have no idea what I'm doing.

 

 

[Sly Wren]

Very nice work overall, Sly Wren!   I will need to reread a few times to get my mind around it. 

Can you clairfy the above portion for me?   It's early and neither my cold medicine nor my coffee has kicked in, so I'm not processing what you're getting at with Ashara.  

I've been working on something related that I *think* might bolster your proposition, but I want to make sure I understand what you're saying about Ashara Dayne and her 'role' in things.

ETA:   I can't see the quoted portion showing up -  I have no idea what I'm doing.

1. 

2. On Ashara: Ygritte makes the consequences of Bael's little spite-fest very clear: kinslaying and ensuing disaster.

She says the maid threw herself from a tower after the son returned home from the battle with a trophy from his dead father. 

We have such a battle: Ned goes to Starfall after the fight with Arthur, bringing Arthur's completely unique sword. And Ashara throws herself from the tower in grief (exact cause of grief to be determined). We get told this in Game, before we hear Bael's Tale. 

Seems like this is Ned's kinslaying Arthur and bringing back an artifact. Result? Dead Asahra by tower. And later--Robb's death by Bolton --also in the Bael Tale.

So, seems like this could go on the pile of evidence for either "Ashara and Ned are Jon's parents" OR "Arthur and Lyanna are." Otherwise, I can't see how the kinslaying part of the story, focused on by Ygritte, fits. Especially when we are given the fight, return of artifact, and death by tower BEFORE we get the Bael Tale. 

3. Feel better soon!

[Sly Wren]

Thus far yes. GRRM said he is the best SF&F writer for creating literary puzzles. He said his New Sun work is a masterpiece.

Excellent! I'll have to give it a look. 

[Tijgy]

(...)

2. Re: roses and deceit: can't see how the texts say roses ALWAYS mean deceit.

I think I did not really understood that at first. 

Forgot something in my earlier post. While I am not really sold on the entire theory of Aerys behind the roses, it is still amazing work you have done in general. So well done!  

[J. Stargaryen]

Sly Wren,

--Bael’s tale is NOT the story of a singer impressing a Stark maid into sniffles. It’s the tale of a future king-beyond-the-Wall reacting to an insult and sticking it to an enemy—the Stark in Winterfell.

We don't read anything about the Stark maid during the night Bael sing's for her father. But, Bael must have seen her somewhere. The end of the tale makes it seem like she was in love with him, as she was rather distraught about his head being brought back to Winterfell. And the two did manage to hide in the crypts for nearly a year, so I think we can assume a level of cooperation there. I wouldn't be surprised if his singing did had a strong effect on her, sniffles or no.

--Thus: the blue rose is NOT a sign of honor or love to the Stark maid. Or anyone else.

It seems to me that you're discounting the maid's perspective here. You could be fully right that Bael intended the rose as an insult. That could well be true of the relationship as well. Maybe he didn't give a fig about her. But, based on what we do know about the tale, I'm not so sure that's how the maid felt.

--Again: “Bael left the child in payment” for the Stark maid’s virginity. An enormous insult. Not romantic.

Again, consider the maid's perspective in this. In fact, to a (teenage?) girl being stolen by a singer might be the height of romance. And while Ygritte provides the caveat regarding the maid's love for Bael, keep in mind her actions which seem to suggest otherwise.

Martin sets up the Bael paradigm in Game: someone sticking it to a rival or enemy—specifically a Stark—for political means. Often a deceiver. Not just a singer. The story of Bael the Bard is part of a context we as readers are already set up for before we hear about Bael himself.

PART III: SO, BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE BAEL STORY, MARTIN HAS SET THIS BASIC CONTEXT. A CONTEXT HE MAINTAINS: a political schemer and/or deceiver striking a blow against the Starks through a Stark maid.

--Thus, Bael=political and personal grudges ultimately ending in kinslaying disaster.

What is the political angle in the song o' the winter rose?

--And he didn’t do it. She ends up seducing him.

Right, just like Bael almost surely ended up seducing the maid, and not the other way around. Because, as Julia H. pointed out to you, Ygritte is the Bael here while Jon is the Stark maid.

I know you disagree with her on this, but I'd point out that neither Mance nor Bael were currently Kings-BtW when they made their journeys to Winterfell. Albeit Bael made his before he became the king, while Mance's occurred after he was no longer the king. But still, another parallel that seems to favor Julia's interpretation.

--When Arya’s dragged before the king, Nymeria’s gone. Cersei knows that they have the wrong wolf in Lady. Doesn’t care. “We have a wolf.” A blow against Robert and Ned—through his child’s wolf.

You're using this example as a comparison to the KotLT, I believe. Maybe I'm just having trouble with it, but I'm not sure how well it fits. In this version the wrong Stark and wrong wolf are punished. Yet at HH, Lyanna was the KotLT and she was the one who was crowned. In other words, the right Stark was punished, so to speak.

 

Martin’s been telling us since Game: Bael the Bard and the Blue Winter Rose are not about love. They are about scheming and humiliating an enemy. Taking a Stark child to use against the Stark in Winterfell. The tale and context fit with Aerys as potential schemer, using Lyanna against the Starks.

Again, I'm not convinced that the To'tWR precludes love, at least for the Stark girl. While the initial gesture might mean something else, the story does not end there. So I don't think we should discount those other aspects. As I mentioned in the Heresy: RLJ thread, I think it's entirely possible that the crowning symbolism was not intended for the characters, but instead for the readers. Maybe it's a mixture of both. The Bael-like insult was meant for the Starks, but the conception symbolism for the readers.

A couple of things in closing. First, the idea that Aerys was behind the crowning is interesting, and wouldn't exactly be out of character for him, as you point out. (And fwiw, here's another possible point in favor of that interpretation. From the perspective of the wildlings, Aerys would be the King-BtW. Not in name, but he's the king, and he's beyond the Wall, from where they're standing. I'm sure you'll recall that Ygritte and Jon have the exchange about perspective, re: "I suppose it's all in where you're standing" during the telling of the tale.) Yet, even if this is the case, I don't see how it changes anything regarding who the father is. Regardless of whose idea it was, it was still Rhaegar's lance in Lyanna's lap.

Second, it's not hard to imagine a few different reasons why Rhaegar himself might be angry with the Starks, including potential political angles. There's the possibility that one of them dishonored his BFF's sister at the tourney. Maybe he was threatening to retaliate on Lyanna. Or maybe he quietly reached out to the Starks, only to be rebuffed. After all, they had already formed their own alliances. Maybe they had conflicting goals, if the southron ambitions are true.

In terms of possible deception on Rhaegar's part, I'd keep in mind what the world book told us about the tourney and its shadow host. Along with the fairly strong possibility that Lyanna guested at HH following the tourney. If Rhaegar was the shadow host, then it would be easy to imagine that he arranged for Lord Whent to extend the invitation for Lyanna to stay there. I doubt it would seem out of the ordinary, with Lyanna being the tourney's QoLaB, and her probably requiring a bit of southron seasoning.

Lastly, even though I disagree with some of your ideas, I think there's lots of good stuff here. it's an interesting read for sure, and provides some fresh takes on long debated subjects. All in all, nice job.

[Sly Wren]

I think I did not really understood that at first. 

Forgot something in my earlier post. While I am not really sold on the entire theory of Aerys behind the roses, it is still amazing work you have done in general. So well done!  

[Sly Wren]

Sly Wren,

We don't read anything about the Stark maid during the night Bael sing's for her father. But, Bael must have seen her somewhere. The end of the tale makes it seem like she was in love with him, as she was rather distraught about his head being brought back to Winterfell. And the two did manage to hide in the crypts for nearly a year, so I think we can assume a level of cooperation there. I wouldn't be surprised if his singing did had a strong effect on her, sniffles or no.

It seems to me that you're discounting the maid's perspective here. You could be fully right that Bael intended the rose as an insult. That could well be true of the relationship as well. Maybe he didn't give a fig about her. But, based on what we do know about the tale, I'm not so sure that's how the maid felt.

Again, consider the maid's perspective in this. In fact, to a (teenage?) girl being stolen by a singer might be the height of romance. And while Ygritte provides the caveat regarding the maid's love for Bael, keep in mind her actions which seem to suggest otherwise.

I agree that the maid's perspective is important. But we have so little information, it's hard to take it into account. We only have two things: 

#1: "No. They had been in Winterfell all the time, hiding with the dead beneath the castle. The maid loved Bael so dearly she bore him a son, the song says . . . though if truth be told, all the maids love Bael in them songs he wrote. Be that as it may, what's certain is that Bael left the child in payment for the rose he'd plucked unasked, and that the boy grew to be the next Lord Stark. So there it is—you have Bael's blood in you, same as me."

The first one gets a disclaimer from Ygritte herself. And, given the lack of the maid's perspective, the story really focuses on the clash between Bael and the Stark--with the maid as a cudgel Bael uses against the father. Lovely.

Could she have hidden with Bael, or been affected by the song, etc? Absolutely. But the tale completely leaves that out. And the part it includes gets a disclaimer.

We do have two "stolen" Stark maids who give us their perspective: Sansa and Arya. Sansa wants to be with Joff at first--but then the whole things turns to horror. And she's used as a cudgel and as leverage against the Starks. Arya wants nothing to do with her "holders." And when Sansa is re-stolen by Bael-ish. She's angry that he didn't take her home. And she is pretty much forced to hide with hims--he framed her for regicide.

Can we extrapolate from this to Bael's baby mama? Perhaps--first liking Bael, then being horrified--like Sansa. Or tricked/coerced into hiding--like Sansa. Or something else entirely. 

But the one thing we do have re: Stark maid's love for Bael is immediately slapped with a disclaimer. By the tale-teller herself. Seems like that should hold some weight.

#2  "Aye," she said, "but the gods hate kinslayers, even when they kill unknowing. When Lord Stark returned from the battle and his mother saw Bael's head upon his spear, she threw herself from a tower in her grief. Her son did not long outlive her. One o' his lords peeled the skin off him and wore him for a cloak."

The maid could be throwing herself from the tower over grief about Bael himself. Or about the fact that her son is a kinslayer. Or a combo. So, we've got some leeway in the text, here. One thing: seems clear she didn't tell the boy who his father was--story implies he "killed unknowing." The Stark in Winterfell knew who his grandson and heir's father was. Why wouldn't the mother tell the son who his father was if she loved that father?

 

Far too little information to pin that answer down. But it's an interesting question--at least to me.

What is the political angle in the song o' the winter rose?

I'm thinking it's teaching an enemy a lesson. 

Right, just like Bael almost surely ended up seducing the maid, and not the other way around. Because, as Julia H. pointed out to you, Ygritte is the Bael here while Jon is the Stark maid.

I know you disagree with her on this, but I'd point out that neither Mance nor Bael were currently Kings-BtW when they made their journeys to Winterfell. Albeit Bael made his before he became the king, while Mance's occurred after he was no longer the king. But still, another parallel that seems to favor Julia's interpretation.

And if Bael was famous for singing or seducing, I could agree with you and Julia H. more readily. 

But Bael is introduced as king beyond the wall and in context with Mance first. Then the sneaky sticking it to an enemy and kinslaying. Then Mance brings him back up in his own sneaky exploits--which didn't include stealing or seducing a Stark daughter. And then Mance brings him up again when he's defeated--Bael as a king beyond the Wall who marched south to fight, not hide.

Throw in Bael-ish--who, so far, is far more of a manipulator than lover or seducer--really seems like that's what the Bael context is. There are many singers in the books. And seducers. Bael's not famous for that in the books: he's famous for king-ing, raiding, and sticking it to the Starks. Neither of which fits Ygritte.

You're using this example as a comparison to the KotLT, I believe. Maybe I'm just having trouble with it, but I'm not sure how well it fits. In this version the wrong Stark and wrong wolf are punished. Yet at HH, Lyanna was the KotLT and she was the one who was crowned. In other words, the right Stark was punished, so to speak.

I agree Lyanna could be the Knight. But also, could not be. Arya's chased and Sansa's wolf is killed because of the defense of Mycah. In the Riverlands, not many leagues from Harrenhal.

So, was Lyanna caught/taken in the Riverlands not many leagues from Harrenhal because of the defense of Howland? And, if she's not the knight, would Aerys care? "We have a wolf."

Would fit in nicely with Ned's nightmare about the crypts. Why all the ancestors and their direwolves are angry with him--if he was the Knight and Lyanna paid for it--would fit. Not that the nightmare ONLY fits that way, by any means. But it would fit.

I've also liked other speculation I've seen that the "we have a wolf" could fit with Brandon and Rickard as well.

Again, I'm not convinced that the To'tWR precludes love, at least for the Stark girl. While the initial gesture might mean something else, the story does not end there. So I don't think we should discount those other aspects. As I mentioned in the Heresy: RLJ thread, I think it's entirely possible that the crowning symbolism was not intended for the characters, but instead for the readers. Maybe it's a mixture of both. The Bael-like insult was meant for the Starks, but the conception symbolism for the readers.

Agreed--love could have ended up happening. Lately, I tend to doubt that it happened towards the Targs, in part because of Arya and Sansa's reactions to the strikes against their family. And to being "taken."

With both Mance and Bael-ish (as well as Cersei in Feast), the Bael/plotting figure sets up strikes against an enemy. In part using a Stark maid (or counterfeit, in Cersei's case) to do so. But they aren't the seducers. Nor, in the case of Bael-ish or Cersei, are the singers used in their plots. 

As I said in the OP: the context isn't done. Rhaegar's lance could end up meaning he is the father of the child. Or, it could have been part of the insult--like "plucking the rose unasked." A public insult with blatant sexual overtones.

Or, it could fit the Bael-ish and Cersei patterns. And someone else is the father--which would fit much better with the "darker end of the tale." Ned's killing the father or uncle of the baby--his sister's child. 

In the novels, kinslaying usually means killing a blood-relative. But Rowan branches that out a bit with Theon. And the Greeks' first knslaying is the killing of a father in law. But, one way or another, Ned doesn't kill Rhaegar. And the only artifacts of his we know went anywhere are the rubies. And we have no record Ned took anything of Rhaegar's anywhere. Unlike what he does with Arthur's sword. And the resulting tower death at Starfall. And Robb's later killing by Bolton.

A couple of things in closing. First, the idea that Aerys was behind the crowning is interesting, and wouldn't exactly be out of character for him, as you point out. (And fwiw, here's another possible point in favor of that interpretation. From the perspective of the wildlings, Aerys would be the King-BtW. Not in name, but he's the king, and he's beyond the Wall, from where they're standing. I'm sure you'll recall that Ygritte and Jon have the exchange about perspective, re: "I suppose it's all in where you're standing" during the telling of the tale.) Yet, even if this is the case, I don't see how it changes anything regarding who the father is. Regardless of whose idea it was, it was still Rhaegar's lance in Lyanna's lap.

Good catch re: the Wall and the perspective. 

Agreed--this does not rule Rhaegar out. But if we look at the context, as well as the end of the tale, I do think it makes Rhaegar's certainty as father less likely.

Second, it's not hard to imagine a few different reasons why Rhaegar himself might be angry with the Starks, including potential political angles. There's the possibility that one of them dishonored his BFF's sister at the tourney. Maybe he was threatening to retaliate on Lyanna. Or maybe he quietly reached out to the Starks, only to be rebuffed. After all, they had already formed their own alliances. Maybe they had conflicting goals, if the southron ambitions are true.

In terms of possible deception on Rhaegar's part, I'd keep in mind what the world book told us about the tourney and its shadow host. Along with the fairly strong possibility that Lyanna guested at HH following the tourney. If Rhaegar was the shadow host, then it would be easy to imagine that he arranged for Lord Whent to extend the invitation for Lyanna to stay there. I doubt it would seem out of the ordinary, with Lyanna being the tourney's QoLaB, and her probably requiring a bit of southron seasoning.

Agreed--until we know Rhaegar's intent, the above HAS to be on the table. Especially considering the context you cite.

Would only point out that we have yet to see Rhaegar as spiteful. Or as recklessly self-sabotaging. That seems much more like Aerys' MO than Rhaegar's.

Lastly, even though I disagree with some of your ideas, I think there's lots of good stuff here. it's an interesting read for sure, and provides some fresh takes on long debated subjects. All in all, nice job.

[Lady Dyanna]

 Ignore this post.  I can't fix the editing. Txt.

 

 

First of all, awesome job, as always!  I agree with most of what you have said.  I still think that there are more parallels throughout the books that might help to fill in more of the specifics, or possibly just confuse us even more.  I pulled the following quote from my echoes thread over at TLH, because I think it might somehow fit in here too. It's from The Sworn Sword

“Ser Eustace chose the black dragon over the red, in hopes that a Blackfyre king might restore the lands and castles that the Osgreys had lost under the Targaryens,” Lady Rohanne said. “Chiefly he wanted Coldmoat. His sons paid for his treason with their life’s blood. When he brought their bones home and delivered his daughter to the king’s men for a hostage, his wife threw herself from the top of Standfast tower. Did Ser Eustace tell you that?” Her smile was sad. “No, I did not think so.” 

[Lady Dyanna]

First of all, awesome job, as always!  I agree with most of what you have said.  I still think that there are more parallels throughout the books that might help to fill in more of the specifics, or possibly just confuse us even more.  I pulled the following quote from my echoes thread over at TLH, because I think it might somehow fit in here too. It's from The Sworn Sword.

 “Ser Eustace chose the black dragon over the red, in hopes that a Blackfyre king might restore the lands and castles that the Osgreys had lost under the Targaryens,” Lady Rohanne said. “Chiefly he wanted Coldmoat. His sons paid for his treason with their life’s blood. When he brought their bones home and delivered his daughter to the king’s men for a hostage, his wife threw herself from the top of Standfast tower. Did Ser Eustace tell you that?” Her smile was sad. “No, I did not think so.” 

Another instance of a mother throwing themselves from a tower.  No bard involved this time, just a daughter being taken hostage.  I guess depending on how you look at it, you could hold the father accountable, even if it wasn't directly his fault he put the events in motion.

I have a gut feeling that something is missing.  I feel like it is surrounding putting the ultimate blame on Aerys.  I believe that he is a much more likely candidate than Rhaegar. We've discussed before how out of character this entire thing is based on the opinions that others have expressed on him throughout the series.  The lynchpin to put the blame on Aerys just isn't there yet.  Because of this, I'm not 100% sold that he is ultimately at fault, even though I do believe it is a sensible conclusion.  Just out of curiosity, have you by chance looked for any evidence that might somehow pull Tywin Lannister into the whole mess?  He would certainly have the funds to assist in the anonymous backing of a tournament and he had expressed a preference for Rhaegar as early as Duskendale.  He meets his end through kinslaying as well, but instead of jumping from a tower, Cersei just burns one down.  

[Sly Wren]

First of all, awesome job, as always!  I agree with most of what you have said.

 Thanks! Given that a lot of this started with your ideas re: echoes in the novels--that should be "thanks very, very much!"

 I still think that there are more parallels throughout the books that might help to fill in more of the specifics, or possibly just confuse us even more.  I pulled the following quote from my echoes thread over at TLH, because I think it might somehow fit in here too. It's from The Sworn Sword.

 “Ser Eustace chose the black dragon over the red, in hopes that a Blackfyre king might restore the lands and castles that the Osgreys had lost under the Targaryens,” Lady Rohanne said. “Chiefly he wanted Coldmoat. His sons paid for his treason with their life’s blood. When he brought their bones home and delivered his daughter to the king’s men for a hostage, his wife threw herself from the top of Standfast tower. Did Ser Eustace tell you that?” Her smile was sad. “No, I did not think so.” 

Another instance of a mother throwing themselves from a tower.  No bard involved this time, just a daughter being taken hostage.  I guess depending on how you look at it, you could hold the father accountable, even if it wasn't directly his fault he put the events in motion.

And, once again, I need to look at the other works when I put my arguments together.

I only looked for "death-by-tower in the novels." And Ashara is it. And mentioned in 4 out of 5 novels. With the Arya comment in the 5th. Given that her death is tied to a battle and a trophy being brought from that battle--it fits the Bael tale. 

But the hostage--Sansa, after Ned's murder, thinks of throwing herself from a tower in grief--but mostly anger. And a bit of drama. Then decides it's just too awful. Sansa may be a bit annoying, but she does have some fight to her.

And, given the twists in the Bael story that Martin sets up before we get to the tale itself--Baelish and Mance--the hostage issue and self-destructive mother might fit. Bael seems to be striking a blow and leaving. Then, deals with the consequences of his self-indulgent spite fest when he meets his son in battle.

But Baelish is a long-tern plotter. Spiteful and self-indulgent, yes. But he's got a long game that seems to be missing from the Bael tale.

I have a gut feeling that something is missing.  I feel like it is surrounding putting the ultimate blame on Aerys.  I believe that he is a much more likely candidate than Rhaegar. We've discussed before how out of character this entire thing is based on the opinions that others have expressed on him throughout the series.  The lynchpin to put the blame on Aerys just isn't there yet.  Because of this, I'm not 100% sold that he is ultimately at fault, even though I do believe it is a sensible conclusion.

While I do think Aerys may have been behind the stupid trick with the roses, I'm agreeing more and more with the idea that he didn't run the whole hostage taking. As I said above, Bael's tale runs on spite and a blow against an enemy. With long-term disastrous results. That kind of spite fits Aerys.

But the Baelish twist on Bael--that's long-term plotting. Which does not seem to have been Aerys' strong suit. And Lyanna is "taken" some time after Harrenhal. I've been thinking it might fit with Voice's warg-block theory. Aerys is paranoid enough to think he can burn away the cold. Right around the same time the only daughter of the descendent of the Kings of Winter is taken. . . 

IceFire125 was arguing for Varys as a potential behind-the-scenes plotter. Which seems possible--though I can't think of a specific reference. 

Just out of curiosity, have you by chance looked for any evidence that might somehow pull Tywin Lannister into the whole mess?  He would certainly have the funds to assist in the anonymous backing of a tournament and he had expressed a preference for Rhaegar as early as Duskendale.  He meets his end through kinslaying as well, but instead of jumping from a tower, Cersei just burns one down.  

And--yes. This seems more viable. Varys may have been a factor, but I'm wondering if Duskendale and Tywin play a role in Lyanna. Feather Crystal may be right on this one.

In the novels, we've got: Aerys' rejecting Cersei as bride for Rhaegar, calling Tywin a servant; Aerys' taking Jaime from Tywin for spite; Cersei and Jaime taking a fair amount of time thinking about these things in the novels--am thinking it's not just character-building.

--And the plethora of Duskendale references--Jaime's reading the White Book with its statement re: Barristan's rescuing Aerys at Duskendale. Then Brienne's Feast chapters can barely get through a paragraph without the word Duskendale. As she's looking for Sansa--the stolen Stark maid. 

--So plenty of references to Tywin's potential motives. Plenty of evidence that Tywin can engage in long-term plotting and get others' hands dirty while he stays above it. And, as you said, he does end up slain by kin in part because of his short-sighted spite re: Tyrion. Rather like Bael's done in by the short-sighted satisfaction of sticking it to a Stark. 

--And on the Duskendale--As I said--Martin gets really heavy handed with those references in Brine's POVs. And, of course, Robb loses at LOT at Duskendale. Seems like Martin's pointing us there pretty hard.

So, WARNING: wild speculation time--did Tywin take Lyanna himself? That seems like a risk he might not take. But did he plant the idea for Aerys? Via Pycelle or Varys? Did he get someone else to take her? 

We find out in Feast that Jaime's echoed Rhaegar at least twice--the search of Arya and then his thinking of removing Cersei from power. And he sends an Arthur Dayne echo--Brienne--after Sansa. I've been thinking Rhaegar might have tried to undo the mess of taking Lyanna. If Tywin was pulling the strings, that might fit that echo. . . .

I need to let this percolate a bit.

[J. Stargaryen]

 I agree that the maid's perspective is important. But we have so little information, it's hard to take it into account. We only have two things:

All I'm saying is that you might not want to be so quick to say that the rose has nothing to do with love, because that might be a part of it, even if only from the maid's perspective. Sure, it might not, but the fact that it might would seem to fit in with your belief that it's worthwhile to consider this from all angles.

The maid could be throwing herself from the tower over grief about Bael himself. Or about the fact that her son is a kinslayer. Or a combo. So, we've got some leeway in the text, here. One thing: seems clear she didn't tell the boy who his father was--story implies he "killed unknowing." The Stark in Winterfell knew who his grandson and heir's father was. Why wouldn't the mother tell the son who his father was if she loved that father?

Not sure. It might have been a dangerous and/or embarrassing secret. For example, the child would almost surely be considered a bastard by Northerners, which could undermine his legitimacy, and therefore possibly the Starks' legitimacy as well. Maybe she was ashamed. I'm just spit balling here.

I'm thinking it's teaching an enemy a lesson.

But how is that political? Bael wasn't the KbtW when he impregnated the Stark girl.

And if Bael was famous for singing or seducing, I could agree with you and Julia H. more readily.

Wait, what? Are you seriously trying to say that Bael the Bard isn't famous for singing? And as for not being a seducer, that's highly dubious as well, with Ygritte mentioning that Bael sang about lots of girls in lots of songs, and they all seemed to love him. At least according to him: “though if truth be told, all the maids love Bael in them songs he wrote.” And even if there was a bit of embellishment there, it's not hard to imagine that a legendary figure, who was first a singer, and later a king, would be popular with the ladies. Whether or not the legends are true, Bael is certainly famous for seducing women, maids even. This is proven by the fact that his deeds live on in song.

Further, I'm not sure how you can say that Bael is not famous for singing or seducing in the books when we learn one of his songs, that just so happens to be about him seducing a girl, in ACoK.

I feel like the above issue really needs to be addressed, so I'm going to stop there for now. Plus, I'm still kind of tired. Just got back home about an hour ago. Happy New Year, btw.