Did LF murder Joff to revenge Cat?

[John Suburbs]

On ‎1‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 8:38 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That's what I suggested at the beginning of this conversation. Since you pointed out that the wine is described as red in between the two descriptions of purple, that does not seem to be the case. OR, as I was pointing out by the Tyrion-quote from Dance, the wine being red as the chalice falls to the ground only seems red due to the light.

As I stated in my previous post, the poison making wine change colour was only an assumption. Not, as far as I am aware, a fact. Especially since Cressen doesn't mention such, as far as I recall.

 

Olenna standing next to the pie is not described, so that is an assumption you make. In addition, she will need to place the poison in someone's food while another person is holding that food - without the person holding the food seeing it. Moving your hand over a chalice, for example whilst grabbing it to hand it to the King, is easily done, and not at all out of the ordinary. Olenna grabbing hold of a piece of pie which is next served to another, is completely out of the ordinary.

 

Well, for one, it was Cersei who made the wedding arrangements. No involvement from Olenna is mentioned.

Next, she could have stated that she wanted all of those pies lined up, sure. But that doesn't mean that she could possibly have known beforehand which piece would be served to which guest, even if we look only at the head table.

 

The poison absorbs? It seems to me that the poison dissolved. If not, putting it in the wine was a rather dumb move by Cressen. The crystal is supposed to dissolve, become part of the fluid it is in.

If it were to absorb the fluid, it could only do so within a specific range (as well, the crystal of poison would still be visible). And to say that a little bit of poison in the tip of the slice could dry out an entire slice of pie in such a short time, is, imo, not at all likely.

 

Difference in health of the victim, difference in ratio of poison to wine. The coughing starts at the same time for both, though.

 

I am suggesting that the end-game for the Tyrells is to both get Margaery on the throne and their grandson by whichever King she marries, as well as having said Baratheon/Lannister King actually still rule for many years to come, without having Margaery come to harm, in addition to having the influence at court grow for House Tyrell.  And for all that, in multiple aspects I have already discussed, Tommen is a better candidate than Joffrey.

To say that the wine is easier to poison than the pie is like saying it is easier to cross a minefield with 200 mines than just one, or that it's easier to catch a fish in a pond that has one fish, not 200. The chalice is visible to virtually everyone in the throne room while the pie is visible to just one -- the person holding it. And if it is just sitting on a back table, of course, then the risk is near zero. If just two people have line-of-sight to the pie, that is a 100 percent increase in the risk of being seen. With 200 possible witnesses to the chalice, the increased risk is practically incalculable. With the pie, all Lady O has to do is make sure the one single person holding it is looking up and away from both her and the pie. With the chalice, she has to make sure that somehow all 200 people are looking up, including Tyrion and Sansa (the chalice was practically in Sansa's lap, according to Tyrion). So unless you're going to argue that one or both of them are six feet tall or more, then their gazes would carry right past the lip of the chalice, and yet neither of them saw nothing. This is simple mathematics, and the fact that you continue to insist that the wine is eminently simple while the pie is impossible is proof positive that you are making up your own facts in order to support your conclusion.

Lady O handing off the crystal to Garlen or Leonette is also not described in the text, neither is either of them reaching up to the lip and dropping it in. So to argue that there is no text with Lady O standing next to the pie or putting the crystal in is silly. If there was, there would be no point in discussing any of this. Lady O is in the immediate area when the cutting starts, as are the pies. So it is certainly within the realm of possibility -- and far more likely than the wine because again hardly anyone is in a position to see the pie.

The Tyrells provided all the food. Have you ever been involved in planning a wedding? Mucking with the arrangements is what mothers and grandmothers do. Nothing at all unusual about the grandmother of the bride making sure the formal pie ceremony goes off without a hitch. Once the pies are all lined up, it's the easiest thing in the world to determine which one is Tyrion's. You realize Lady O can count, right?

Yes, the crystal dissolves by absorbing moisture. That is just the basic mechanics of dissolution. How else do you suppose it happens?

Again, you simply reject any and all text that does not support your conclusion. The poisonings were not the same. The time discrepancy is several orders of magnitude, and the fact -- the hard, incontrovertible, physiological fact -- is that higher dilution would not delay the poison, only lessen its affect. Ask any chemist. To say that the poison needs to build up in the throat before it becomes lethal is contrary to the text and is just another example of making up facts to support a conclusion.

Margaery as Queen does not "put her on the throne." There is only one throne: the Iron Throne. And that is occupied by the king. Sure, there have been powerful Queens in the past, but there is absolutely no reason to think Margaery would wield power through Tommen. In fact, it would probably be the exact opposite as Tommen shows all the makings of being a capable, thoughtful and serious king once he comes into manhood while Joffrey is easily manipulable for anyone who knows how to pull his strings, like Littlefinger, and all of Margaery's interactions with Joffrey indicate that she has been well-trained at this game, unlike Sansa. And again, Joffrey provides the Tyrell heir to the throne within a year or two, and then he could be killed in any number of ways in private, with no witnesses at all, let alone 200.

 

 

 

[finger]

On 14/1/2016 at 1:45 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

On 24/1/2016 at 2:38 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That's what I suggested at the beginning of this conversation. Since you pointed out that the wine is described as red in between the two descriptions of purple, that does not seem to be the case. OR, as I was pointing out by the Tyrion-quote from Dance, the wine being red as the chalice falls to the ground only seems red due to the light.

As I stated in my previous post, the poison making wine change colour was only an assumption. Not, as far as I am aware, a fact. Especially since Cressen doesn't mention such, as far as I recall.

 

Olenna standing next to the pie is not described, so that is an assumption you make. In addition, she will need to place the poison in someone's food while another person is holding that food - without the person holding the food seeing it. Moving your hand over a chalice, for example whilst grabbing it to hand it to the King, is easily done, and not at all out of the ordinary. Olenna grabbing hold of a piece of pie which is next served to another, is completely out of the ordinary.

 

Well, for one, it was Cersei who made the wedding arrangements. No involvement from Olenna is mentioned.

Next, she could have stated that she wanted all of those pies lined up, sure. But that doesn't mean that she could possibly have known beforehand which piece would be served to which guest, even if we look only at the head table.

 

The poison absorbs? It seems to me that the poison dissolved. If not, putting it in the wine was a rather dumb move by Cressen. The crystal is supposed to dissolve, become part of the fluid it is in.

If it were to absorb the fluid, it could only do so within a specific range (as well, the crystal of poison would still be visible). And to say that a little bit of poison in the tip of the slice could dry out an entire slice of pie in such a short time, is, imo, not at all likely.

 

Difference in health of the victim, difference in ratio of poison to wine. The coughing starts at the same time for both, though.

 

I am suggesting that the end-game for the Tyrells is to both get Margaery on the throne and their grandson by whichever King she marries, as well as having said Baratheon/Lannister King actually still rule for many years to come, without having Margaery come to harm, in addition to having the influence at court grow for House Tyrell.  And for all that, in multiple aspects I have already discussed, Tommen is a better candidate than Joffrey.

I see a difference, though, between a substance that burns, and a substance that makes the muscles clench.

You tell me that the pie is moist, but the only description we get is that it is dry, which seems contradictory. And while it seems that the Strangler can dissolve in fluid, I can't believe that sprinkling a little bit of it on the pointy end of the pie will make the entire thing dry. That sounds like a stretch, to me.

As to the changing of the colour. The wine was running purple over his chin before he even touched the pie. So the spewing back of the wine and pie is not the reason as to its colour.

The thing is, that the severity is lessened. The first little bit of wine is only enough for a few coughs. It's the next few chugs of wine that bring on the more heavier coughing, closing the throath. 

Olenna was standing when Joffrey was insulting Tyrion the first time. Was she standing all that time? Unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. Nor could she possibly have known, as I said before, which piece of pie would go to Tyrion. 

 

With the poison in the wine, there are multiple people who could put it in. Olenna, Garlan, Margaery. Who knows who more might have been involved of the Tyrells. And they have reason to be close to that calice, with Margaery drinking from it. With multiple people able to put in the poison, they'd have the best chance of succeeding. And with Margaery drinking from that calice, no one would suspect them.

 

But it isn't enough.

Considering the reasoning behind this..

 

Even without Tyrion, the Lannisters have control over the Stormlands (through Cersei's children), Westerlands (Tywin), riverlands (Genna + Littlefinger), and crownlands (Joffrey).  While the North would add a lot, the damage is already done by that.

And the only thing holding everything together, is Tywin. If Tywin dies, it is up to Cersei/Joffrey and Tyrion to keep control, and let it be clear during their time at court that Tyrion and Joffrey, and Tyrion and Cersei, do not get along. If Tywin dies on short notice, the alliance he has build this way dies with him. Killing Tyrion changes nothing to this. In fact, it currently would make the chance of a Lannister heir by Sansa even greater, because with Tyrion dead, Sansa would immediately be married off again, and I don't think anyone else would dare say no to Tywin if commanded to consummate the marriage.

Nor should a burning Reach be Olenna's concern anymore... After all, House Tyrell has just married the Iron Throne. If Joffrey was supposed to live, the Reach would have been quite secure in their position for decades to come. 

 

And let's not forget, Olenna was working with LF here, and the plan was clearly already in motion since the afermath of the Blackwater.. A time where Sansa and Tyrion were not married, and such a marriage was not yet even spoken of. No reason, at that point in time, to already assume that Tywin shall be in control of the North by having Tyrion father a son on Sansa.

AND Tywin. LF  is obeying orders and he's being rewarded for it,... by the moment.

Joffrey is a hindrance for both the lady O and Tywin. As you say, Tommen is more suitable. And I add, for both.

After that, Tywin can't let alive someone who's dared to kill a Lannister. LF knows and hided in the Vale.

The poisoning is much simpler than you're arguing. It was in Sansa's net, it was put in Joff's drink, but it took a while to dilute, that's all.

As for the colours, it's also very simple. Fetch a bottle of red wine, open it, pour some in a transparent glass, look at its colour. Is it red? No way. For instance, in Spain red wine is called "tinto", all the same as black coffee in Colombia. In southern Italy some kinds of "vino rosso" are nero (black) d'abola, corvo (raven). Definitely, red wine is NOT red, it's much darker than that. I find this is amongst the most useless arguments I've read.

Otoh, I think Cersei screwed it once again. After allowing the north to the Boltons, Sansa was useless. I guess they planned to blame it on her. She should be offended for not to be who married Joff and become queen, and then she fled. All was ready to make her suspect.

 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎1‎/‎25‎/‎2016 at 2:04 PM, finger said:

AND Tywin. LF  is obeying orders and he's being rewarded for it,... by the moment.

Joffrey is a hindrance for both the lady O and Tywin. As you say, Tommen is more suitable. And I add, for both.

After that, Tywin can't let alive someone who's dared to kill a Lannister. LF knows and hided in the Vale.

The poisoning is much simpler than you're arguing. It was in Sansa's net, it was put in Joff's drink, but it took a while to dilute, that's all.

As for the colours, it's also very simple. Fetch a bottle of red wine, open it, pour some in a transparent glass, look at its colour. Is it red? No way. For instance, in Spain red wine is called "tinto", all the same as black coffee in Colombia. In southern Italy some kinds of "vino rosso" are nero (black) d'abola, corvo (raven). Definitely, red wine is NOT red, it's much darker than that. I find this is amongst the most useless arguments I've read.

Otoh, I think Cersei screwed it once again. After allowing the north to the Boltons, Sansa was useless. I guess they planned to blame it on her. She should be offended for not to be who married Joff and become queen, and then she fled. All was ready to make her suspect.

 

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Tywin wanted Joffrey dead. He argues the exact opposite to Tyrion following the dust-up in the council meeting:

"Not Robert the Second," Tyrion said. "Aerys the Third."

"The boy is thirteen. There is time yet." Lord Tywin paced to the window. That was unlike him; he was more upset than he wished to show. "He requires a sharp lesson."

A lot of people take that quote to mean Tywin meant to kill Joffrey. But first, a sharp lesson that results in the death of the student is no lesson. It's murder. And two, Tywin is no kinslayer. He didn't even kill his own dwarf infant son when it was common to throw such children into the sea. As well, Tommen as king merely means his mother rules as Cersei for another four years, and it is quite clear from that chapter how Tywin feels about that.

The Strangler is the most lethal, effective poison in the story and it's been sitting in the wine since the doves were released and then sloshing around as Joffrey upends the chalice. Why would people use it if, after all that, it fails to dilute adequately and you have to rely on the victim to take an exorbitantly large dose in order to kill him? And again, basic physiology states that a less poisoned wine would simply produce less of an affect on the victim; it wouldn't slow the reaction.

If the wine was poisoned during the cutting, there is absolutely no way it could turn from red to purple to red and then to purple again, especially the deep purple at the end of the scene. If that was the color of the last dregs, than that should have been the color all the way through. No way around it. But if the poison was in the pie, then we simply have the affect of thin rivulets of wine down pale white skin, then red on the dais because the poison/pie gook from his mouth had barely touched the wine at this point, and then the deep purple at the end as the contents of Joffrey's, and perhaps even the bulk of the crystal itself, turned the last half-inch of wine.

Is there speculation here? Of course there is. But at least it fits within the events on the page, unlike the wine theory which relies on an endless string of suppositions, unsupported substantiations and outright misstatements of fact.

 

[finger]

So you know the quote, as I had always thought. It's not the only one, but the more explicit. Of course, Tywin wouldn't admit he planned to kill is grandson. Of course, there's no word of the sharp lesson, even though a Lannister always pays his debts. And, of course, no matter what I say, I won't make you change your mind.

I feel we'd better agree to friendly disagree.

And, if there was a plot to kill Joffrey, it doesn't matter much who did it and how. I'd bet Lady O took the poison form Sansa when she arranged her net. Someone put it in the wine, and Tyrion noticed it was poison at once. I guess he felt the poisoner didn't care if he could have drunk too. Add it to the intent to kill him in the battle. Sansa was the intended culprit, and only Cersei spoke up too much.

That's how I see it, but feel free to think otherwise.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 25-1-2016 at 5:25 PM, John Suburbs said:

To say that the wine is easier to poison than the pie is like saying it is easier to cross a minefield with 200 mines than just one, or that it's easier to catch a fish in a pond that has one fish, not 200. The chalice is visible to virtually everyone in the throne room while the pie is visible to just one -- the person holding it.

First of all, who says that the pie is seen by only one person? That's an assumption, and only that.

Second, you're comparing apples and oranges. It is someone's job to serve the pie, and thus, said person will be focused on the pies he's carrying. Whereas no one is keeping an eye on the chalice. Literally everyone would have been focused on something else, whether it were the doves, of the food, the king and queen, or something else.

 

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And if it is just sitting on a back table, of course, then the risk is near zero. If just two people have line-of-sight to the pie, that is a 100 percent increase in the risk of being seen. With 200 possible witnesses to the chalice, the increased risk is practically incalculable.

All of the witnesses who were, at that time, were looking at... the pie, at the bottom of the dais, and then the doves, flying in the air. Not at the chalice, standing forgotten on a table.

 

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With the pie, all Lady O has to do is make sure the one single person holding it is looking up and away from both her and the pie.

Which would be a huge risk, because the servant might not look away from his job. As well, it would require Olenna to stand extremely close to said servant, making the possibility of her moving around undetected, very, very little.

Cressen managed to poison the wine in a room filled with people, and the only one who noticed anything was Davos, and that was because it was his cup the maester used. Cressen had to add the poison in front of Davos, in Davos's cup, which is why he was spotted.  Davos kept his mouth shut, but a servant won't be likely to keep silent for Olenna. 

 

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With the chalice, she has to make sure that somehow all 200 people are looking up, including Tyrion and Sansa (the chalice was practically in Sansa's lap, according to Tyrion).

I don't see it mentioned in the chapter. Do you have the quote?

All I see mentioned is that Joffrey places it "on the table", and that Tyrion has to climb "onto his chair" to reach it. Yet, that doesn't mean that it is "practically in Sansa's lap"... And let's not forget, that a Tyrell was sitting on the other side of Tyrion. Who's to say the chalice wasn't standing between the two of them?

 

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So unless you're going to argue that one or both of them are six feet tall or more, then their gazes would carry right past the lip of the chalice, and yet neither of them saw nothing.

Without the chalice "practically in Sansa's lap", this argument is gone, then.

 

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This is simple mathematics, and the fact that you continue to insist that the wine is eminently simple while the pie is impossible is proof positive that you are making up your own facts in order to support your conclusion.

Really, I'm not making up any facts. I use text, not only to support the act, but also to support the motivation. I've demonstrated that over multiple posts. You are taking assumptions, and use them as facts, and then become upset when I argue against them. 

 

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Lady O handing off the crystal to Garlen or Leonette is also not described in the text, neither is either of them reaching up to the lip and dropping it in. So to argue that there is no text with Lady O standing next to the pie or putting the crystal in is silly. If there was, there would be no point in discussing any of this. Lady O is in the immediate area when the cutting starts, as are the pies. So it is certainly within the realm of possibility -- and far more likely than the wine because again hardly anyone is in a position to see the pie.

We have no idea who's able to see the pie. Is there one servant? Are there three? Are there ten? We don't know, but servants are busy serving pie, and they have to be quick about it, so there will probably be a lot of servants walking to and from the table.

No, Olenna standing next to the pie not being described is not an argument against the theory. Yet you are arguing that she definitly was standing next to the pie. If you want to make that assumption, that's fine, but treat it as an assumption, not as a fact. That was what I was arguing against.

 

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The Tyrells provided all the food. Have you ever been involved in planning a wedding? Mucking with the arrangements is what mothers and grandmothers do. Nothing at all unusual about the grandmother of the bride making sure the formal pie ceremony goes off without a hitch. Once the pies are all lined up, it's the easiest thing in the world to determine which one is Tyrion's. You realize Lady O can count, right?

The Tyrells provided all the food. And Cersei made the wedding arrangements. There's a difference between those two things.

 

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Again, you simply reject any and all text that does not support your conclusion. The poisonings were not the same. The time discrepancy is several orders of magnitude, and the fact -- the hard, incontrovertible, physiological fact -- is that higher dilution would not delay the poison, only lessen its affect. Ask any chemist. To say that the poison needs to build up in the throat before it becomes lethal is contrary to the text and is just another example of making up facts to support a conclusion.

 

How is saying that you need to ingest more of the poison when the poison in question has been very much diluted before you can see the exact same effects of a higher concentration a contradiction?

I'd say it makes sense that you will see the same effects only once both people ingested about the same amount of poison.. The higher the dilution, the more you'll need to ingest. Joffrey starts coughing from the beginning, which could easily indicate the poison having an effect.. but because it was only so little poison, it didn't have the same effect as it had on Cressen. That only came when the same amount had finally been ingested.

 

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Margaery as Queen does not "put her on the throne." There is only one throne: the Iron Throne. And that is occupied by the king. Sure, there have been powerful Queens in the past, but there is absolutely no reason to think Margaery would wield power through Tommen. In fact, it would probably be the exact opposite as Tommen shows all the makings of being a capable, thoughtful and serious king once he comes into manhood while Joffrey is easily manipulable for anyone who knows how to pull his strings, like Littlefinger, and all of Margaery's interactions with Joffrey indicate that she has been well-trained at this game, unlike Sansa. And again, Joffrey provides the Tyrell heir to the throne within a year or two, and then he could be killed in any number of ways in private, with no witnesses at all, let alone 200.

"getting Margaery on the throne" is just that, making her a queen. I never said they wanted her to rule. She'd never get to rule directly. It would be Tommen, or Tywin during the time Tommen was still a minor. Margaery being Queen does make her family gain a lot more influence in KL, and Margaery herself is very much capable of influencing Tommen, as we see during Feast.

I've covered the rest in detail in previous posts, I'm not going to do it again.

 

I have to say that I am not appreciating your tone. Nor can I say that I appreciate the claim that I am making facts up. And since we've been discussing this for so many days now, without any progress, it might just be best to agree to disagree on this particular topic. Do you agree?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 25-1-2016 at 8:04 PM, finger said:

AND Tywin. LF  is obeying orders and he's being rewarded for it,... by the moment.

Joffrey is a hindrance for both the lady O and Tywin. As you say, Tommen is more suitable. And I add, for both.

After that, Tywin can't let alive someone who's dared to kill a Lannister. LF knows and hided in the Vale.

The poisoning is much simpler than you're arguing. It was in Sansa's net, it was put in Joff's drink, but it took a while to dilute, that's all.

As for the colours, it's also very simple. Fetch a bottle of red wine, open it, pour some in a transparent glass, look at its colour. Is it red? No way. For instance, in Spain red wine is called "tinto", all the same as black coffee in Colombia. In southern Italy some kinds of "vino rosso" are nero (black) d'abola, corvo (raven). Definitely, red wine is NOT red, it's much darker than that. I find this is amongst the most useless arguments I've read.

Otoh, I think Cersei screwed it once again. After allowing the north to the Boltons, Sansa was useless. I guess they planned to blame it on her. She should be offended for not to be who married Joff and become queen, and then she fled. All was ready to make her suspect.

 

I'm not sure that there are any hints for Olenna and Tywin working together on this? Sure, Tywin doesn't agree with the way Joffrey acts, but teaching Joffrey a "sharp lesson" that results in his death doesn't sound like a "sharp lesson" to me. How's Joffrey supposed to learn from it?

You mentioned there are other quotes? I can't say I agree with you, but I'm curious as to what other quotes you mean..

[John Suburbs]

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

First of all, who says that the pie is seen by only one person? That's an assumption, and only that.

Second, you're comparing apples and oranges. It is someone's job to serve the pie, and thus, said person will be focused on the pies he's carrying. Whereas no one is keeping an eye on the chalice. Literally everyone would have been focused on something else, whether it were the doves, of the food, the king and queen, or something else.

 

All of the witnesses who were, at that time, were looking at... the pie, at the bottom of the dais, and then the doves, flying in the air. Not at the chalice, standing forgotten on a table.

 

If there is one person holding the pie, then why would anyone else take even the slightest interest in it? It's an assumption but it's a logical one.

If you are ordered to serve the pie immediately after the ceremony, does it make more sense to watch the ceremony or stare at the pie in your hands? Is he afraid someone will try and steal it? Does he have any reason to suspect that anything is amiss with the pie at all? And this is assuming that someone is holding the pie at this point and it's not just sitting on a table.

The chalice is a huge golden cup sitting at practically the highest point in the room. Nobody is staring at it either, but it is easily within the line of site of guests down below looking upward when someone puts their arm in the air to reach up to the rim. Movement draws glances, and everyone else in the room is stock still at this point. Simple logic.

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Which would be a huge risk, because the servant might not look away from his job. As well, it would require Olenna to stand extremely close to said servant, making the possibility of her moving around undetected, very, very little.

Cressen managed to poison the wine in a room filled with people, and the only one who noticed anything was Davos, and that was because it was his cup the maester used. Cressen had to add the poison in front of Davos, in Davos's cup, which is why he was spotted.  Davos kept his mouth shut, but a servant won't be likely to keep silent for Olenna. 

 

It is orders of magnitude less risky than hoping not one of 200 people happens to be looking your way. If the servant is not looking up, she can distract him with an "oh, how beautiful", "have you ever seen such a sight." The point is, she has only one person to worry about here, not 200. And if the servant makes noise, so what? Who is he to accuse the Queen of Thorns of murder? And this is assuming anyone bothers to give Tyrion an autopsy anyway.

Cressen dropped the flake in as he was reaching to pick up a normal-sized goblet, a move that he was not trying to hide. This is very different from reaching your hand to the top of a three-foot chalice -- probably six feet off the ground in total -- that you have no business touching. 

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I don't see it mentioned in the chapter. Do you have the quote?

All I see mentioned is that Joffrey places it "on the table", and that Tyrion has to climb "onto his chair" to reach it. Yet, that doesn't mean that it is "practically in Sansa's lap"... And let's not forget, that a Tyrell was sitting on the other side of Tyrion. Who's to say the chalice wasn't standing between the two of them?

 

Without the chalice "practically in Sansa's lap", this argument is gone, then.

 

Tyrion's recollection, either in his tower cell or later in Dance (on the road with Illyrio, or on the Shy Maid?) He describes the chalice as practically in Sansa's lap.

We have no idea in what order everyone was seated. Sansa is on one side of Tyrion, but it doesn't say if she is closer to or further from the center or whether the Tyrells were to their left or right.

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Really, I'm not making up any facts. I use text, not only to support the act, but also to support the motivation. I've demonstrated that over multiple posts. You are taking assumptions, and use them as facts, and then become upset when I argue against them. 

 

Yes, you are. At just about every turn, there is some unsupported contention that has no basis in fact or text: the unknown properties of the strangler, the multiple plotters, servants standing around staring at pies, motivations that do not jive with either the text or the historical precedents as to how noble lords and ladies viewed marriage, power, children and the like...

Check again and you'll see that every assumption I've made is rooted solidly in fact: from the actions of the poisons to the positions of the key players to their motivations. It's all right there in the text, but you have to let the evidence guide you to the conclusion, rather than the other way around.

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

We have no idea who's able to see the pie. Is there one servant? Are there three? Are there ten? We don't know, but servants are busy serving pie, and they have to be quick about it, so there will probably be a lot of servants walking to and from the table.

No, Olenna standing next to the pie not being described is not an argument against the theory. Yet you are arguing that she definitly was standing next to the pie. If you want to make that assumption, that's fine, but treat it as an assumption, not as a fact. That was what I was arguing against.

 

10 servants now? Really? You say you base your opinions on text, but clearly you don't. Even 10 would be orders of magnitude less risky than 200. But it is simply ludicrous to think that anyone is standing around staring at a piece of pie. There are no servants walking around during the cutting ceremony. No text to support that at all. Everyone is standing looking at the ceremony and the servants are waiting for it to conclude before they bring out the pies.

My contention is that Lady O must be standing behind the table where the pies are, and the text supports this. Tyrion doesn't see her until she speaks, so she is clearly not in front of him. It is also safe to assume that she is not on the table or floating in the air. Therefore, she must be behind the table where the pies are. Simple deduction.

Your contention that she could not possibly know which pie is Tyrion, on the other hand, is completely unfounded. She could easily arrange it.

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The Tyrells provided all the food. And Cersei made the wedding arrangements. There's a difference between those two things.

 

"The cheese will be served after the cakes, my lady."

"The cheese will be served when I want it served, and I want it served now."

Clearly this is a woman who is used to giving orders and getting what she wants. And if she has to run it by Cersei, so what? What is Cersei going to do, insist that the high table -- the cream of Westeros nobility -- sit around twiddling their thumbs waiting for their pies?

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

How is saying that you need to ingest more of the poison when the poison in question has been very much diluted before you can see the exact same effects of a higher concentration a contradiction?

I'd say it makes sense that you will see the same effects only once both people ingested about the same amount of poison.. The higher the dilution, the more you'll need to ingest. Joffrey starts coughing from the beginning, which could easily indicate the poison having an effect.. but because it was only so little poison, it didn't have the same effect as it had on Cressen. That only came when the same amount had finally been ingested.

 

 Again, the only way you can believe this is if the strangler was either magic or had properties that do not exist anywhere on the page or in real life. Find my one example of a contact poison that behaves this way. This is in complete defiance of the text and all logic. We've seen how quickly it works with Cressen and all the laws of physiology would have a more diluted poison giving a diminished affect on the victim, not a delayed one.

And besides, even if we measure from the first ingestion to the first little cough, we still have double or even triple the time differential, depending on how many chugs Joffrey took. It simply does not work any way you look at it.

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

"getting Margaery on the throne" is just that, making her a queen. I never said they wanted her to rule. She'd never get to rule directly. It would be Tommen, or Tywin during the time Tommen was still a minor. Margaery being Queen does make her family gain a lot more influence in KL, and Margaery herself is very much capable of influencing Tommen, as we see during Feast.

I've covered the rest in detail in previous posts, I'm not going to do it again.

 

Exactly, so simply making Margaery a queen is of limited value at best. The real prize is putting a Tyrell on the Iron Throne, and you can do this much more quickly with Joffrey than Tommen. Where in the feast does Magaery influence Tommen? Again, a statement with no text to support it. We do have Margy influencing Joffrey, as in the cutting ceremony. She handles him quite nicely.

 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I have to say that I am not appreciating your tone. Nor can I say that I appreciate the claim that I am making facts up. And since we've been discussing this for so many days now, without any progress, it might just be best to agree to disagree on this particular topic. Do you agree?

It's because your arguments are weak, your logic is flawed and your "evidence" has no basis in text or fact.

The wine theory requires an endless stream of unsupported, if not outright impossible, assertions that only lead to a convoluted plan that could come completely undone at any number of points. They have to hope the dwarf joust produces conflict between J&T. They have to hope it involves the chalice. They have to hope the chalice ends up in front of another conspirator and Lady O can get the poison to him/her in time. They have to hope Tyrion gets his hands on the chalice after the wine is poisoned. They have to hope Joffrey drinks enough of the wine to kill him...

Meanwhile, we have to assume that LF thinks he can get more chaos from King Tommen than King Joffrey. We have to assume that Lady O cares more about her granddaughter than the future of her house, or that she is completely unaware of the threat posed by CR and its new holdings. We have to assume, against all text, that Joffrey was going to kill Margy that very night.

The pie needs none of this. There is no reason to involve anyone other than LF and Lady O. There is no reason to invent things about the poison because both events happened in virtually the same way. The motivations of the principal plotters jive perfectly with their characterizations as savvy players of the Game of Thrones, with their eyes on the long-term political gains.

Drop out any time you want. Nobody else is reading at this point anyway.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 28-1-2016 at 3:32 AM, John Suburbs said:

10 servants now? Really? You say you base your opinions on text, but clearly you don't. Even 10 would be orders of magnitude less risky than 200. But it is simply ludicrous to think that anyone is standing around staring at a piece of pie. There are no servants walking around during the cutting ceremony. No text to support that at all. Everyone is standing looking at the ceremony and the servants are waiting for it to conclude before they bring out the pies.

You take a clear example which I use to point out that we don't know how many servants there were (Was there only 1 present? Were there 3? 10? Were there more?), and are trying to twist it.

 

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My contention is that Lady O must be standing behind the table where the pies are, and the text supports this. Tyrion doesn't see her until she speaks, so she is clearly not in front of him. It is also safe to assume that she is not on the table or floating in the air. Therefore, she must be behind the table where the pies are. Simple deduction.

Text supports that Olenna is standing, and it appears she's still standing on the dais. That's what the text supports. Where the pie is, is completely unknown. To say that there most certainly was a table with the pies within Olenna's reach, is an assumption. Not a fact.  To say that there was a table in the room with the pies on it is an assumption. So don't be angry when people do not agree to take those things as fact, especially considering they are not.

 

On 28-1-2016 at 3:32 AM, John Suburbs said:

If you are ordered to serve the pie immediately after the ceremony, does it make more sense to watch the ceremony or stare at the pie in your hands? Is he afraid someone will try and steal it? Does he have any reason to suspect that anything is amiss with the pie at all? And this is assuming that someone is holding the pie at this point and it's not just sitting on a table.

If I have to serve a pie at a specific moment, I'll be busy ensuring all is ready to serve all the pieces of pie as quickly as necessary. I'd be busy arranging them on a tray, as to be able to serve them quickest. 

 

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Yes, you are. At just about every turn, there is some unsupported contention that has no basis in fact or text: the unknown properties of the strangler, the multiple plotters, servants standing around staring at pies, motivations that do not jive with either the text or the historical precedents as to how noble lords and ladies viewed marriage, power, children and the like...

Check again and you'll see that every assumption I've made is rooted solidly in fact: from the actions of the poisons to the positions of the key players to their motivations. It's all right there in the text, but you have to let the evidence guide you to the conclusion, rather than the other way around.

[...]

It's because your arguments are weak, your logic is flawed and your "evidence" has no basis in text or fact.

The scenario about the poison in the wine is very simple, and supported by text. No matter how many times you say it isn't supported, it most definitly is, and what more, it requires only very few assumptions.

First, we have Olenna's asking  "the right questions", which she does once more, when having the lunch with Sansa. Olenna is foremost interested in Joffrey's nature. Text also supports why. Olenna might hold power over Mace, but if Mace wants something and Olenna can't talk him out of it, it will happen regardless of what Olenna thinks about it. And Mace wants Margaery to be queen, and to have a son who will one day sit on the throne. What Olenna does instead, with Mace set on making Margaery queen and having a grandson on the IT, is creating the best situation she possibly can. Margaery needs a husband who won't hurt her, who she can easily influence, who is most likely to actually sit on the throne long enough for Margaery's child to inherit. And that, is not Joffrey, but Tommen. With Joffrey dead, Tommen becomes king, and Mace will get what he wants, whilst Olenna made the best situation of it. Not only does Tommen show absolutely no hints as to being violent (which Joffrey does), he's way more easily to influence (which Joffrey only is at times), as well as more likely to keep a peace (as with Tommen, Tywin will rule for several more years, instead of having to give all power to Joffrey in two years time, when he comes of age, nor will Tommen be likely to commit such acts as Joffrey, like Joff did when he beheaded Ned, or tried to have Robb's head brought to KL).

Next comes the actual poisoning. It is quite simple. The Tyrells gave Joffrey a chalice.. One he'll be drinking from that night, and not another, while additionally, no one will be likely to accidentally drink from Joffrey's cup. There are several Tyrells we see as likely to have been involved in the plot. Olenna for certain, and any others we wish to include are assumptions, but these small assumptions are not too far out there. Conveniently, one of the Tyrells is sitting close to the chalice at the moment that another takes all the attention from those present in the hall. The poison quickly takes a mild effect, as the coughing begins shortly after he drank some of the wine, and when he ingests more, the effects become more severe, and he dies.

Hints, motivation, and the act, all fit with the text. My arguments are supported by text.

You don't have to agree with my interpretation of the situation. Not at all. But I have plenty of text to back my opinion and interpretation up.

 

On 28-1-2016 at 3:32 AM, John Suburbs said:

Check again and you'll see that every assumption I've made is rooted solidly in fact: from the actions of the poisons to the positions of the key players to their motivations. It's all right there in the text, but you have to let the evidence guide you to the conclusion, rather than the other way around.

[...]

The wine theory requires an endless stream of unsupported, if not outright impossible, assertions that only lead to a convoluted plan that could come completely undone at any number of points. They have to hope the dwarf joust produces conflict between J&T. They have to hope it involves the chalice. They have to hope the chalice ends up in front of another conspirator and Lady O can get the poison to him/her in time. They have to hope Tyrion gets his hands on the chalice after the wine is poisoned. They have to hope Joffrey drinks enough of the wine to kill him...

Meanwhile, we have to assume that LF thinks he can get more chaos from King Tommen than King Joffrey. We have to assume that Lady O cares more about her granddaughter than the future of her house, or that she is completely unaware of the threat posed by CR and its new holdings. We have to assume, against all text, that Joffrey was going to kill Margy that very night.

The pie needs none of this. There is no reason to involve anyone other than LF and Lady O. There is no reason to invent things about the poison because both events happened in virtually the same way. The motivations of the principal plotters jive perfectly with their characterizations as savvy players of the Game of Thrones, with their eyes on the long-term political gains.

Drop out any time you want. Nobody else is reading at this point anyway.

All of the bolded here, you are arguing against stuff that I am not saying is necessary to execute the scenario as I am proposing. Stuff that isn't even necessary to execute the scenario with the poison in the wine. They don't necessarily need an argument between Tyrion and Joffrey out in the open. No matter what result the joust has, it will give Tyrion 'motivation' to kill Joffrey. He spoke up against Joffrey, making the king wroth. If he hadn't spoken up, everyone would have assumed he felt he had been shamed. And that, together with their problematic relationship in the months and years before,would have given just as much motivation in the minds of those who might be willing to implicate Tyrion as necessary.

Nor is hoping for the chalice to end up in front of a conspirator necessary. And, to be honest, it is quite contradictory to say that whilst at the same time arguing that Olenna could have poisoned the pie. Either someone needs to walk up to the chalice, and put the poison in, or they are lucky enough that it ends up closeby enough to one of them. They have 77 courses. At some point, the moment will present itself.

Nor is it necessary for Tyrion to have held the chalice - though it certainly helped.. If someone (say, Cersei) wants to accuse him, they'll accuse him, whether he had touched the chalice that day or not. It has happened before. It can easily happen again. 

As to Joffrey drinking enough wine... Come on... That one was never a problem.

 

LF wants chaos, but what I think is most important, is that he needs chaos he can predict. He can predict Cersei, to a certain extend. Joffrey is more unpredictable. Installing Tommen as King was step one, and it would have the additional benefit of giving LF levarage over Olenna. Whatever plans LF might have had to get himself more chaos after Tommen was crowned, he never revealed, and Tywin's death not too long after made such plans unnecessary.

Why would it be necessary to assume that Olenna would fear that Margaery would be killed that night? And why would Olenna need to fear Casterly Rock? Casterly Rock cannot afford to lose the power of Highgarden, and by taking holdings and lands from the Reach, they'll lose Highgarden. Tywin cannot afford to offend them. And Olenna will know that.

 

The pie has some textual support, but far less that the wine-scenario, and in addition, it needs quite a few more assumptions. That assumptions are necessary doesn't mean something cannot have happened. Far from it. But since there is, in my opinion, less textual support for the pie-scenario, and there are more assumptions necessary (the location of the pie, the exact manner of the poison), I, personally, am not convinced by it.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

You take a clear example which I use to point out that we don't know how many servants there were (Was there only 1 present? Were there 3? 10? Were there more?), and are trying to twist it.

 

Why would you need more than one servant to hold a plate of pie? Why would anyone else being paying even the slightest bit of attention to this piece of pie? To even suggest that there is any more than one person that Lady O has to distract in order to do the pie is grasping at straws.

2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Text supports that Olenna is standing, and it appears she's still standing on the dais. That's what the text supports. Where the pie is, is completely unknown. To say that there most certainly was a table with the pies within Olenna's reach, is an assumption. Not a fact.  To say that there was a table in the room with the pies on it is an assumption. So don't be angry when people do not agree to take those things as fact, especially considering they are not.

 

How does it "appear she is standing on the dais"? Show me how the text supports this. Tyrion is at his seat and he doesn't notice Lady O until she speaks, so the most logical conclusion is that she is behind him and close enough to be heard clearly above the din of the cavernous throne room. Regardless of whether she meant to poison the pie or the wine, why would she be down on the dais at this point? How is she going to get the poison to Garlen or Leonette?

No matter which theory you choose, you have to make assumptions to fill in where the text is lacking. The pies were served immediately, so the most logical assumption is that they were very close at hand, and certainly not in front of the table but behind it, out of site of the other guests. So no, Lady O was not on the dais, she was behind the table where the pies were. If this is the standard of proof you require, then how can you say it was the wine? Don't you have to assume that Lady handed the crystal off to someone, and then assume they reached six feet in the air and perhaps two feet across to drop it in?

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

If I have to serve a pie at a specific moment, I'll be busy ensuring all is ready to serve all the pieces of pie as quickly as necessary. I'd be busy arranging them on a tray, as to be able to serve them quickest. 

 

Yes, and it takes approximately three seconds to make sure your four or five pies are all lined up ready to go. So then the other 5 minutes of the ceremony you would just stand there staring at the pie in your hands? Even when the pigeons took flight?

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The scenario about the poison in the wine is very simple, and supported by text. No matter how many times you say it isn't supported, it most definitly is, and what more, it requires only very few assumptions.

 

Sorry, you have absolutely no text that puts the poison in the wine and a long string of completely unfounded assumptions to get it there. First, we have the time discrepancy to deal with, which you say is due to this unique/magical property of the strangler that makes it behave like no other substance ever encountered. There is no text or reality whatsoever to support this claim. Then you have Garlen and/or Leonette doing the actual poisoning. Again, no text to suggest that Garlan, an anointed knight, would stoop to poison, a eunuch's weapon, to kill someone, and no text to suggest that Leonette is either physically or mentally capable of such a thing. There is also no way you can explain how the plotters knew the chalice would end up at exactly the right place at the right time for it be poisoned, so you create all kinds of scenarios with multiple plotters and multiple poisoning options and countless shards of crystal for each one, and somehow it will all work out. Again, no text at all.

For motive, you say Littlefinger wants chaos, and this is why he is removing the most chaotic person in the room who has unlimited, unchecked power at his disposal. Meanwhile, Lady O is terrified that Joffrey will hurt poor Margaery, even though we have text with both of them expressing not even the mildest concern over him, and even more text the proves beyond a doubt that Joffrey is pleased as punch to be getting Margy and not Sansa: "Joff took his bride in his arms and twirled her about merrily." So not only do you not have any text to support your assumptions, but you blithely ignore text that disproves them.

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

First, we have Olenna's asking  "the right questions", which she does once more, when having the lunch with Sansa. Olenna is foremost interested in Joffrey's nature. Text also supports why. Olenna might hold power over Mace, but if Mace wants something and Olenna can't talk him out of it, it will happen regardless of what Olenna thinks about it. And Mace wants Margaery to be queen, and to have a son who will one day sit on the throne. What Olenna does instead, with Mace set on making Margaery queen and having a grandson on the IT, is creating the best situation she possibly can. Margaery needs a husband who won't hurt her, who she can easily influence, who is most likely to actually sit on the throne long enough for Margaery's child to inherit. And that, is not Joffrey, but Tommen. With Joffrey dead, Tommen becomes king, and Mace will get what he wants, whilst Olenna made the best situation of it. Not only does Tommen show absolutely no hints as to being violent (which Joffrey does), he's way more easily to influence (which Joffrey only is at times), as well as more likely to keep a peace (as with Tommen, Tywin will rule for several more years, instead of having to give all power to Joffrey in two years time, when he comes of age, nor will Tommen be likely to commit such acts as Joffrey, like Joff did when he beheaded Ned, or tried to have Robb's head brought to KL).

 

There is nothing that Sansa tells Lady O that is not already public knowledge. He admitted publicly that he took Ned's head despite the wishes of his betrothed, his mother and his small council. So from that she knows he is cruel, uncaring and foolish. Sansa was beaten before a gathering of lords and ladies, so she knows he is a masochist. The questioning at dinner was more to learn about Sansa than Joffrey, and Sansa proved herself to be brave, caring and willing to put others' needs before her own. It was immediately after that that the Willas proposal was brought up.

And exactly what text leads you to conclude that Mace is calling the shots in Highgarden? Was it the part about his only victory being actually due to his bannerman? Or where he sat on his ass feasting outside Storms End while other lords were fighting and dying? Or the part about Mace blustering about in front of Littlefinger while Lady O asked the pointed, cogent questions? How about the way she bosses him around and tells him to stop hectoring the queen? Text after text after text proves that Mace may make the formal announcement, but Lady O makes the decisions. You can't possibly imagine why Lady O might be lying to Sansa about Mace's role in the alliance and the wedding arrangements? Like maybe it would not do for people to know that the Lord of Highgarden is just a big gasbag?

Again, you keep basing your assumptions on the idea that all Lady O is interested in is a safe, happy life for Margaery, and sorry, but that is just complete nonsense. Lady O wants a Tyrell sitting on the Iron Throne as quickly as possible, and she wants to remove the growing existential threat that Casterly Rock has become. She is a noble lady taking steps for the security and prosperity of her house, and if that means subjecting Margaery to a rat like Joffrey, then so be it. That is how nobles regarded marriage back then: they were political alliances, not romances, and Margaery knows this as well. With Joffrey, they have everything they want within a year. With Tommen, it's a good five years away, and perhaps not at all.

 

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Next comes the actual poisoning. It is quite simple. The Tyrells gave Joffrey a chalice.. One he'll be drinking from that night, and not another, while additionally, no one will be likely to accidentally drink from Joffrey's cup. There are several Tyrells we see as likely to have been involved in the plot. Olenna for certain, and any others we wish to include are assumptions, but these small assumptions are not too far out there. Conveniently, one of the Tyrells is sitting close to the chalice at the moment that another takes all the attention from those present in the hall. The poison quickly takes a mild effect, as the coughing begins shortly after he drank some of the wine, and when he ingests more, the effects become more severe, and he dies.

Hints, motivation, and the act, all fit with the text. My arguments are supported by text.

You don't have to agree with my interpretation of the situation. Not at all. But I have plenty of text to back my opinion and interpretation up.

 

 The chalice was a wedding gift to the couple, not to Joffrey. It is intended for them to share, particularly when being toasted at formal events during the feast. So as Joffrey is slowly poisoning himself with wine, why wouldn't Margaery be drinking from her wedding gift as well? And it is simply ludicrous to have this rare and expensive poison that can be diluted to the point of ineffectuality in only a few glasses of wine, and then deploy it in a vessel that holds a few glasses of wine. This simply adds yet another unknown into the plan: will Joffrey drink enough wine to kill himself?

And if Tyrion just didn't happen to be named cup-bearer and didn't have his hands on the chalice right after it was poisoned? There was no way he could have done it from his seat, but Garlen could, and gee, the cup was a gift from the Tyrells... Who on earth would be stupid enough to present a unique gift like that in front of the entire court and then use it as the murder weapon? It almost guarantees that suspicion will fall directly on you, unless the victims in this plot do exactly as you hope they will.

 

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

All of the bolded here, you are arguing against stuff that I am not saying is necessary to execute the scenario as I am proposing. Stuff that isn't even necessary to execute the scenario with the poison in the wine. They don't necessarily need an argument between Tyrion and Joffrey out in the open. No matter what result the joust has, it will give Tyrion 'motivation' to kill Joffrey. He spoke up against Joffrey, making the king wroth. If he hadn't spoken up, everyone would have assumed he felt he had been shamed. And that, together with their problematic relationship in the months and years before,would have given just as much motivation in the minds of those who might be willing to implicate Tyrion as necessary.

Nor is hoping for the chalice to end up in front of a conspirator necessary. And, to be honest, it is quite contradictory to say that whilst at the same time arguing that Olenna could have poisoned the pie. Either someone needs to walk up to the chalice, and put the poison in, or they are lucky enough that it ends up closeby enough to one of them. They have 77 courses. At some point, the moment will present itself.

Nor is it necessary for Tyrion to have held the chalice - though it certainly helped.. If someone (say, Cersei) wants to accuse him, they'll accuse him, whether he had touched the chalice that day or not. It has happened before. It can easily happen again. 

As to Joffrey drinking enough wine... Come on... That one was never a problem.

 

Yes, they do need a public spat between J & T. Everyone already knows they don't like each other. The whole court saw the way Tyrion ordered the beatings of Sansa to stop and multiple people saw Tyrion strike Joffrey during the bread riots. So fostering a behind-the-scenes dispute at the wedding is about as useful as nipples on a breastplate. They have to have a public fight and it must involve the chalice or else there is no plausible way for Tyrion to poison the wine. Sure, Cersie could accuse him, but any fool could see there is no way he could have done it. He had to climb into his seat just to get it off the table.

In a plot such as this, where heads if not entire dynasties are on the line, only an utter imbecile would leave anything to chance. So to say that if it wasn't the chalice it could have been anything else simply flies in the face of all logic. That would mean Littlefinger took all the pains of acquiring the poison, fashioning the hairnet, getting it to Sansa, instructing Lady O how to use it, determining the where, when and how of everything right up to the moment she gets the poison in her hand, and from there she's just supposed to wing it? That's a sure-fire way of blowing the whole thing. Give these two a little credit, they are not idiots. And remember, the plot requires that not only must Joffrey die, but Tyrion must be accused; otherwise, suspicion falls immediately on House Tyrell.

Sorry, but the only logical conclusion is that they plotted everything out, right down to the very bite, the only bite, that the victim would take and where it would be in the moments before he took it. There is no way they could have done this with the wine, but as I've proven above, very easy for the pie -- even if it is not plainly and unequivocally spelled out in the text.

4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

LF wants chaos, but what I think is most important, is that he needs chaos he can predict. He can predict Cersei, to a certain extend. Joffrey is more unpredictable. Installing Tommen as King was step one, and it would have the additional benefit of giving LF levarage over Olenna. Whatever plans LF might have had to get himself more chaos after Tommen was crowned, he never revealed, and Tywin's death not too long after made such plans unnecessary.

Why would it be necessary to assume that Olenna would fear that Margaery would be killed that night? And why would Olenna need to fear Casterly Rock? Casterly Rock cannot afford to lose the power of Highgarden, and by taking holdings and lands from the Reach, they'll lose Highgarden. Tywin cannot afford to offend them. And Olenna will know that.

 

How do you predict chaos? The definition of chaos is complete disorder and confusion;

behavior so unpredictable as to appear random.

 

LF can't predict Cersie, as the text clearly shows. He is taken aback at how quickly she's mucked things up. And Littlefinger of all people knows how to manipulate Joffrey, as shown by the dwarf joust, so in one person he has all the chaos and control he needs. The only other person who even comes close to LF's control over Joffrey is Margaery. So you would have use believe that the two people in the story who show any penchant at all for controlling Joffrey want him dead because he's too uncontrollable?

The only reason Lady O would take such a drastic step as killing the king is if she was convinced Margaery would not survive the night. Otherwise, there is no reason for her to risk all at a big public event like the wedding. If the danger to Margy will not present itself for months, then she could just as easily wait until Margy is pregnant with the new king. Then she could get rid of Joffrey in private, with no witnesses, and install Margy as queen regent for the next 14 years, wielding real power.

Look at the history. Highgarden has been the most powerful house in the realm for thousands of years, while Casterly Rock kept mostly to itself, especially during the Tytos years. Once Tywin has control of the westerlands, the riverlands, the stormlands, the crownlands, the neck and the north, CR becomes the most powerful house in the realm with the means to field an army that could dwarf the Reach. And the lord of Casterly Rock has shown himself to be the real monster in the story: razing seats to the ground, wiping out rival families right down the stable hands, burning the countryside from horizon to the horizon. Just look at the destruction that Arya, Jaime and others witness in the Riverlands -- nothing but burned fields, smoldering villages and dead bodies. The realm has not seen anything like this since the Dance of the Dragons, and that includes the five Blackfyre rebellions. This is shermanesque-style total war that has led to the endless trail of human misery that is streaming to the capital.

Tywin needs Highgarden for the very immediate task of defeating Stannis and bringing an end to the war. Once that is done, all bets are off and the power of Highgarden is of little value to someone who can dwarf the Reach's army with his own, and bring the weight of the Iron Throne as well. If you believe nothing else, please accept the fact that as the titular head of House Tyrell, Lady O can think of nothing worse than 100,000 swords under the command of Tywin "Mad Dog" Lannister burning their way through the Reach, razing both Highgarden and Oldtown to the ground and slaughtering every last Tyrell, Hightower and Redwyne.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would you need more than one servant to hold a plate of pie? Why would anyone else being paying even the slightest bit of attention to this piece of pie? To even suggest that there is any more than one person that Lady O has to distract in order to do the pie is grasping at straws.

You need one servant to hold a plate, but you'll be needing more servants to serve all the pie.

 

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How does it "appear she is standing on the dais"? Show me how the text supports this. Tyrion is at his seat and he doesn't notice Lady O until she speaks, so the most logical conclusion is that she is behind him and close enough to be heard clearly above the din of the cavernous throne room. Regardless of whether she meant to poison the pie or the wine, why would she be down on the dais at this point? How is she going to get the poison to Garlen or Leonette?

Aren't they all seated on the dais? 

Additionally, she's an old woman with a can pretending to , according to LF, to be more frail than she actually is. Climbing down from the dais on her own, while especially possible if she's indeed pretending, will draw attention. She can't act any fitter, nor walk any faster, than she usually does, otherwise everybody will see through it. 

 

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No matter which theory you choose, you have to make assumptions to fill in where the text is lacking. The pies were served immediately, so the most logical assumption is that they were very close at hand, and certainly not in front of the table but behind it, out of site of the other guests. So no, Lady O was not on the dais, she was behind the table where the pies were. If this is the standard of proof you require, then how can you say it was the wine? Don't you have to assume that Lady handed the crystal off to someone, and then assume they reached six feet in the air and perhaps two feet across to drop it in?

Yes, and it takes approximately three seconds to make sure your four or five pies are all lined up ready to go. So then the other 5 minutes of the ceremony you would just stand there staring at the pie in your hands? Even when the pigeons took flight?

I'd find the assumption that the pies were already in the room to be not the most logical one. It would be most logical if the food was send up from the kitchens and stored nearby where it should be served, but to actually place all already in the room where the guests are, you are basically making the guests look at it, smell it, but are not allowing them to eat it. My guess, most logically, would be that he food was brought from the kitchens, either directly, on trays by the servants, or indirectly, to some  side-room where preparations could be made without disturbing the guests.

 

But you are not getting the point that I am making time and time again. All we know is that the pie is served quickly after the ceremony ends. Was the pie already in the room? We don't know. Were the servants in a room next to the room the guests are in, on standby to immediately start serving the pies? We don't know. But it certainly is possible.

 

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Sorry, you have absolutely no text that puts the poison in the wine and a long string of completely unfounded assumptions to get it there. First, we have the time discrepancy to deal with, which you say is due to this unique/magical property of the strangler that makes it behave like no other substance ever encountered.

Not a unique or magical property at all.

 

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There is no text or reality whatsoever to support this claim. Then you have Garlen and/or Leonette doing the actual poisoning. Again, no text to suggest that Garlan, an anointed knight, would stoop to poison, a eunuch's weapon, to kill someone, and no text to suggest that Leonette is either physically or mentally capable of such a thing.

I'm not including Leonette. And I have clearly stated that Garlan might have been involved, not that he definitly is. 

 

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For motive, you say Littlefinger wants chaos, and this is why he is removing the most chaotic person in the room who has unlimited, unchecked power at his disposal.

He's removing the person he can't predict, he can't predict at all.

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Meanwhile, Lady O is terrified that Joffrey will hurt poor Margaery, even though we have text with both of them expressing not even the mildest concern over him, and even more text the proves beyond a doubt that Joffrey is pleased as punch to be getting Margy and not Sansa: "Joff took his bride in his arms and twirled her about merrily." So not only do you not have any text to support your assumptions, but you blithely ignore text that disproves them.

There is nothing that Sansa tells Lady O that is not already public knowledge. He admitted publicly that he took Ned's head despite the wishes of his betrothed, his mother and his small council. So from that she knows he is cruel, uncaring and foolish. Sansa was beaten before a gathering of lords and ladies, so she knows he is a masochist. The questioning at dinner was more to learn about Sansa than Joffrey, and Sansa proved herself to be brave, caring and willing to put others' needs before her own. It was immediately after that that the Willas proposal was brought up.

Public knowledge? That Joffrey openly hurts Sansa at court, makes it knowledge known to all those at court. It is war, and the Tyrells have joined forces with the enemy. No one in KL is likey to start spreading rumours about Joffrey to their King's enemy.

So Olenna doesn't know. The people LF brings with him when he negotiates, though, do spread such stories about Joffrey. And when Olenna arrives in KL, she goes to check them. Where better to check them than with the victim?  That's Sansa.

Olenna is not a fool. It won't have been hard for her to see that Joffrey would not be capable of playing the "gallant king" forever. And when she finally has confirmation about Joffrey's true nature, she simply states "Ah, that's a pity", but it complicated matters that the rumours are true, but it is not the end of it. Mace is determined to see his daughter become a queen, and thus, it will happen. But for that, they only need a King, not necessarily Joffrey.

 

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And exactly what text leads you to conclude that Mace is calling the shots in Highgarden? Was it the part about his only victory being actually due to his bannerman? Or where he sat on his ass feasting outside Storms End while other lords were fighting and dying? Or the part about Mace blustering about in front of Littlefinger while Lady O asked the pointed, cogent questions? How about the way she bosses him around and tells him to stop hectoring the queen? Text after text after text proves that Mace may make the formal announcement, but Lady O makes the decisions. You can't possibly imagine why Lady O might be lying to Sansa about Mace's role in the alliance and the wedding arrangements? Like maybe it would not do for people to know that the Lord of Highgarden is just a big gasbag?

Mace's actions during the rebellion are not important here. So bringing them up is irrelivant. 

Olenna won't be around Mace constantly. Mace would remain in KL, Olenna would, sooner or later, return to Highgarden. Her influence over Mace and his ability to make decisions, will leave along with her. 

Olenna is capable of influencing Mace's decisions. That's clear, and I never stated that it wasn't true. But that she's capable of influencing his decisions, doesn't mean she's making all of his decisions for him. Does crowning Renly seem like the best choice to you? Had Renly won his war and the throne, all he would have done was set precedent that the throne can be taken by conquest - never mind the laws of inheritance. That doesn't sound like a secure throne, and with Olenna's intelligence, she'd go for the most secure position, no? Loras and Mace were behind Renly's crowning (and Renly, of course). Olenna doesn't sound like she had anything to do with it, at all.

 

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Again, you keep basing your assumptions on the idea that all Lady O is interested in is a safe, happy life for Margaery, and sorry, but that is just complete nonsense. Lady O wants a Tyrell sitting on the Iron Throne as quickly as possible, and she wants to remove the growing existential threat that Casterly Rock has become. She is a noble lady taking steps for the security and prosperity of her house, and if that means subjecting Margaery to a rat like Joffrey, then so be it. That is how nobles regarded marriage back then: they were political alliances, not romances, and Margaery knows this as well. With Joffrey, they have everything they want within a year. With Tommen, it's a good five years away, and perhaps not at all.

What I am arguing, is that Olenna wants the best position for House Tyrell that she can make of the situation. That doesn't mean a happy life for Margaery (not that I ever argued a happy life for her, but ok), but it does require Margaery to have a solid position at court. Is Joffrey going to speak out in favor of the wife he will almost certainly eventually abuse? Doesn't seem likely. Margaery's power at court would dwindle once Joffrey's true nature came out, and that of House Tyrell with her. 

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 The chalice was a wedding gift to the couple, not to Joffrey. It is intended for them to share, particularly when being toasted at formal events during the feast. So as Joffrey is slowly poisoning himself with wine, why wouldn't Margaery be drinking from her wedding gift as well? And it is simply ludicrous to have this rare and expensive poison that can be diluted to the point of ineffectuality in only a few glasses of wine, and then deploy it in a vessel that holds a few glasses of wine. This simply adds yet another unknown into the plan: will Joffrey drink enough wine to kill himself?

Which leads to one of the few assumptions needed for the theory: that Margaery was at least aware.

 

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LF can't predict Cersie, as the text clearly shows. He is taken aback at how quickly she's mucked things up. And Littlefinger of all people knows how to manipulate Joffrey, as shown by the dwarf joust, so in one person he has all the chaos and control he needs. The only other person who even comes close to LF's control over Joffrey is Margaery. So you would have use believe that the two people in the story who show any penchant at all for controlling Joffrey want him dead because he's too uncontrollable?

LF clearly states that Cersei did exactly what LF anticipated... She only did it much faster than he expected.

 

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The only reason Lady O would take such a drastic step as killing the king is if she was convinced Margaery would not survive the night. Otherwise, there is no reason for her to risk all at a big public event like the wedding. If the danger to Margy will not present itself for months, then she could just as easily wait until Margy is pregnant with the new king. Then she could get rid of Joffrey in private, with no witnesses, and install Margy as queen regent for the next 14 years, wielding real power.

No. Why? This is an argument no one is making, and something that isn't necessary for the plot, yet you feel the need to argue against it. 

Do you see the problem with Joffrey dying after consummating his marriage? It was of utmost importance that Margaery was still seen as a virgin when she was betrothed to Joffrey, after Renly's death. It would be just as important for her to still be seen that way after Joffrey died, so she could marry Tommen.

The thing with Joffrey, is that they know he is cruel. They just can't tell when that will finally show. Why wait, when you know that it will happen eventually? Why kill the king in private, eliminating all possible people who could be accused? Nor can you assume that Margaery will be installed as regent. Even if she has a child by Joffrey.

 

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Look at the history. Highgarden has been the most powerful house in the realm for thousands of years, while Casterly Rock kept mostly to itself, especially during the Tytos years. Once Tywin has control of the westerlands, the riverlands, the stormlands, the crownlands, the neck and the north, CR becomes the most powerful house in the realm with the means to field an army that could dwarf the Reach. And the lord of Casterly Rock has shown himself to be the real monster in the story: razing seats to the ground, wiping out rival families right down the stable hands, burning the countryside from horizon to the horizon. Just look at the destruction that Arya, Jaime and others witness in the Riverlands -- nothing but burned fields, smoldering villages and dead bodies. The realm has not seen anything like this since the Dance of the Dragons, and that includes the five Blackfyre rebellions. This is shermanesque-style total war that has led to the endless trail of human misery that is streaming to the capital.

Tywin needs Highgarden for the very immediate task of defeating Stannis and bringing an end to the war. Once that is done, all bets are off and the power of Highgarden is of little value to someone who can dwarf the Reach's army with his own, and bring the weight of the Iron Throne as well. If you believe nothing else, please accept the fact that as the titular head of House Tyrell, Lady O can think of nothing worse than 100,000 swords under the command of Tywin "Mad Dog" Lannister burning their way through the Reach, razing both Highgarden and Oldtown to the ground and slaughtering every last Tyrell, Hightower and Redwyne.

And why would Tywin ever start to raze through the Reach? There is no reason. House Tyrell and House Lannister have just formed an alliance together.

 

Fact remains, that by killing Tyrion, Olenna stands to gain nothing. A small council position opens up, yes, but that is filled quickly enough. Sansa is widowed, yes, but as far as she would have known, Tywin would have married her off to a Lannister as quickly as possible. Do not forget that Roose Bolton was named Warden of the North before the purple wedding already. Power of the North belongs to him now, not Sansa. Tyrion had his chance to grab the North, but he didn't do it fast enough, and Tywin immediately went on to the next plan, involving Roose, Ramsay, and a fake Arya. Sansa's claim to Winterfell, even before the wedding, was already greatly diminished even before she was accused of having a hand in Joffrey's murder.

[the trees have eyes]

Poison was in the wine.  Joffrey has a death that happens slightly differnetly to Cressen's for dramatic effect and because GRRM chose to write it that way.  It's not down to GRRM's grasp of science or toxicity but art.

And you two should agree to disagree - no one is convincing anyone here.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

6 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

And you two should agree to disagree - no one is convincing anyone here.

I've already suggested that once. I would have no problem ending the conversation right here.

[finger]

On 27/1/2016 at 7:45 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I'm not sure that there are any hints for Olenna and Tywin working together on this? Sure, Tywin doesn't agree with the way Joffrey acts, but teaching Joffrey a "sharp lesson" that results in his death doesn't sound like a "sharp lesson" to me. How's Joffrey supposed to learn from it?

You mentioned there are other quotes? I can't say I agree with you, but I'm curious as to what other quotes you mean..

You must have noticed that Tywin normally hired someone for the dirty job. He just charged it to LF. And you just have to remember your own arguments to involve Lady O. Apply them to Tywin under similar circumstances.

I can't spot the other clues, but there are. You can read stances where a "sharp lesson" is not really meant to teach anything. Or Tywin talking  of Joff, often resentful. In fact, it seems he blamed it on Cersei: he seems to punish her for having had to kill Joffrey. You won't find the ultimate statement, I concede, but if you add it all up, I think it makes sense.

Or, by reductio ad absurdum, shouln't Tywin have charged him with the task, would LF have dared to help the Tyrells with the murder? The answer is crystal clear to me, but I understand that other people can see it otherwise, or I try to understand, at least.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

 

You need one servant to hold a plate, but you'll be needing more servants to serve all the pie.

So? The point is Lady O only needs to worry about the one person holding the one piece of pie, not all the servants serving all the pies nor the 200 lords and ladies who can see the chalice. So by any and all logic, the pie is a significantly less risky than the wine.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Aren't they all seated on the dais? 

Additionally, she's an old woman with a can pretending to , according to LF, to be more frail than she actually is. Climbing down from the dais on her own, while especially possible if she's indeed pretending, will draw attention. She can't act any fitter, nor walk any faster, than she usually does, otherwise everybody will see through it. 

 

They are all seated at the table. Tyrion does not see Lady O until she speaks, so logically she is behind him. If she were in front of him he would have seen her the way he sees virtually everything else that is going on the room. And if she is somehow below him out of his line of vision, regardless of whether she is still on the dias or not, she is in an impossible position to hand the poison off the anyone save perhaps the Martells who are also seated below the head table. And I doubt very highly that Lady O is working with either Oberyn, who crippled her son, or Ellaria Sand, his paramour. And yes, if she is out in front of the head table she will draw attention. Behind it, however, hardly anyone can see her, and it isn't suspicious at all for an old woman to stretch her legs halfway through a 77-course meal. All text, and again simple logic, make it plain that Lady O is behind the head table, where the pies are.

 

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I'd find the assumption that the pies were already in the room to be not the most logical one. It would be most logical if the food was send up from the kitchens and stored nearby where it should be served, but to actually place all already in the room where the guests are, you are basically making the guests look at it, smell it, but are not allowing them to eat it. My guess, most logically, would be that he food was brought from the kitchens, either directly, on trays by the servants, or indirectly, to some  side-room where preparations could be made without disturbing the guests.

 

But you are not getting the point that I am making time and time again. All we know is that the pie is served quickly after the ceremony ends. Was the pie already in the room? We don't know. Were the servants in a room next to the room the guests are in, on standby to immediately start serving the pies? We don't know. But it certainly is possible.

 

The text belies this notion. The sequence of events is barely 10 seconds long: the pie is cut, the pigeons fly out, the crowd oohs, the band starts playing, Joff twirls Margy, and Tyrion's pie is served. The throne room is large. If they were still bringing it up from the kitchens or some other room there would be several minutes to account for. And since the entire story is unfolding in real-time here, and there is no description of all the guests staring slack-jawed at the royal couple as they dance, the only conclusion to be drawn is that the pies were very close, somewhere behind the head table where, again, through logical deductive reasoning, Lady O has positioned herself.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Not a unique or magical property at all.

Yes, it is. I defy you to find one single topical or contact poison that builds up over time once it has contacted the skin. Ammonia, bleach, caustic acids, even poison ivy: if you apply it full strength it produces a severe affect immediately. If you dilute it, it produces a less severe affect, but perhaps over a larger area, but it does not delay the attack, especially when were talking about drinking it because any poison that is not immediately absorbed is carried down the esophagus and into the stomach. There is simply no way a topical poison can reconcentrate itself back to a lethal state once inside the body, and skin cells that have already been compromised will not become more compromised just because repeated doses of the same diluted poison are applied. This is not my opinion. This is undeniable, incontrovertible scientific fact. So by ascribing these properties to the Strangler in order to support your conclusion, you are not using text, you are not using fact, you are using nothing but your own imagination.

But the only reason I indulge this dilution claptrap is to prove the point that, even if this were true, it flies in the face of all logic and reason that the plotters would then purposely choose a larger than normal goblet to deploy the wine. All that does is add yet another layer of uncertainty into the plan because Joffrey might not take a large enough drink to kill himself. Remember, Joffrey has never exhibited this behavior in the past, not at Winterfell, not during the Tourney of the Hand, not at Sansa and Tyrion's wedding, never. So it is simply absurd to deploy the poison in a larger-than-normal amount of wine and then hope Joffrey, for the first time ever, starts drinking to excess, rather than take the small sip that would be normal for the toasts that are inevitable after the pie-cutting.

But there is more: the text itself all but debunks the possibility of Joffrey's wine being more diluted than Cressen's. At no time does Cressen remark that his wine looks abnormal. Even at the very end, when he knows it's poisoned, it looks like normal wine in the goblet. By the time Joffrey tips the poisoned chalice up end to drink deep, the crystal has been sitting in it for close to half-a-minute, and it's been sloshed around first by Tyrion and then by Joffrey. So by the first chug, the wine should be thoroughly infused by poison, and there is no text at all to say that the Strangler discolors wine over time. So assuming that the red wine spilled on the dais is just a trick of the light, you need to come up with a plausible explanation -- and I stress the word "plausible" -- as to how, and why, more poison could have been added to the chalice after Joffrey dropped it. Barring that, there is no other logical conclusion other than Joffrey's wine was deep purple throughout the entire scene, and that means it was more concentrated than Cressen's, probably by a significant degree.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I'm not including Leonette. And I have clearly stated that Garlan might have been involved, not that he definitly is. 

If Garlan or Leonette didn't do the wine, who did? Who else could have possibly done it?

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

He's removing the person he can't predict, he can't predict at all.

Littlefinger can not only predict Joffrey -- up to a point, he cannot predict that Joffrey will start doing things he has never done before, like start pounding wine -- he is one of the few people in the story who can manipulate Joffrey. The dwarf joust is proof of that. Joffrey didn't want it; LF convinced him otherwise by appealing to his insecurities and hostility toward Tyrion. Again, I give you text to support my contention, you give me nothing but your contention.

 

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Public knowledge? That Joffrey openly hurts Sansa at court, makes it knowledge known to all those at court. It is war, and the Tyrells have joined forces with the enemy. No one in KL is likey to start spreading rumours about Joffrey to their King's enemy.

So Olenna doesn't know. The people LF brings with him when he negotiates, though, do spread such stories about Joffrey. And when Olenna arrives in KL, she goes to check them. Where better to check them than with the victim?  That's Sansa.

Olenna is not a fool. It won't have been hard for her to see that Joffrey would not be capable of playing the "gallant king" forever. And when she finally has confirmation about Joffrey's true nature, she simply states "Ah, that's a pity", but it complicated matters that the rumours are true, but it is not the end of it. Mace is determined to see his daughter become a queen, and thus, it will happen. But for that, they only need a King, not necessarily Joffrey.

Yes, events in open court become public knowledge, known to all. Even medieval courts had scribes at the ready taking down everything that is said and done, not only to write the histories but to make sure the king's words are made into law. I'm not sure, but it seems like you are arguing that things that happen in open court are still not known by the people at court who witness these events? There is no reason to spread rumors about Joffrey's treatment of Sansa, it happens right in front of multiple witnesses or good standing.

The same is true for Ned's beheading: in public, before throngs of people, where he readily admits that he is acting against the wishes of his mother, bride-to-be and his small council. Lady O has all the information she needs to form her opinion about Joffrey.

Again, you keep saying Mace is the instigator of all this, and all you have is the spin that Lady O gives to Sansa about Mace doing all these things despite LO's wishes. What nonsense. Why does Lady O need to get these stories from Sansa when there are multiple witnesses to the beating throughout the court? If Lady O is truly thrown for a loop by what Sansa says about Joffrey, why the muted reaction? Why hide the truth of her fears from Sansa when she is being so open and honest about everything else? The real relationship between Mace and Lady O can be seen at Tywin's funeral, and the real Mace can be seen in his behavior on the page and the actions he takes at war and in court.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Mace's actions during the rebellion are not important here. So bringing them up is irrelivant. 

Olenna won't be around Mace constantly. Mace would remain in KL, Olenna would, sooner or later, return to Highgarden. Her influence over Mace and his ability to make decisions, will leave along with her. 

Olenna is capable of influencing Mace's decisions. That's clear, and I never stated that it wasn't true. But that she's capable of influencing his decisions, doesn't mean she's making all of his decisions for him. Does crowning Renly seem like the best choice to you? Had Renly won his war and the throne, all he would have done was set precedent that the throne can be taken by conquest - never mind the laws of inheritance. That doesn't sound like a secure throne, and with Olenna's intelligence, she'd go for the most secure position, no? Loras and Mace were behind Renly's crowning (and Renly, of course). Olenna doesn't sound like she had anything to do with it, at all.

 

Mace's actions, past and present, are more relevant to his character than the spin that Lady O gives to Sansa. Words are wind, but actions speak volumes.

The Tyrells have to back someone during the war, and with Joffrey betrothed to Sansa and Stannis already married, to a Florent no less, Renly is the only option for Margaery. With their 100k swords, victory seemed inevitable.

The throne was forged in conquest, taken by conquest and held by force of arms, not birth order or titles. Lady O knows this, along with virtually every other lord in the realm. The Tyrells, Hightowers and Redwynes will secure the throne for Renly and Margaery, but not if Tywin suddenly has the means to counter their strength.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

What I am arguing, is that Olenna wants the best position for House Tyrell that she can make of the situation. That doesn't mean a happy life for Margaery (not that I ever argued a happy life for her, but ok), but it does require Margaery to have a solid position at court. Is Joffrey going to speak out in favor of the wife he will almost certainly eventually abuse? Doesn't seem likely. Margaery's power at court would dwindle once Joffrey's true nature came out, and that of House Tyrell with her. 

Which leads to one of the few assumptions needed for the theory: that Margaery was at least aware.

 

The best position for House Tyrell is not Margaery as queen-in-waiting for five years while Cersei rules as regent, but Margaery is Queen Mother to the new king. There is no reason to think that Joffrey will abuse Margaery because Marg is not Sansa; their situations are completely different. Sansa was all alone in the capital with no family, guards or anything while her brother and her house were attainted traitors. Margaery has an army at her back and a brother in the Kingsguard.

What power at court does Margaery have as queen to either Joffrey or Tommen? Again, you posit these ideas even though they have no basis in text or in fact. Queens don't wield any power, not unless the king dies and she becomes regent, but that can only happen if she gives a son to the king. That will happen five years sooner with Joffrey than Tommen. If and when Joffrey were to become a problem, they could easily remove him later and make it look like an accident. Then they have the best of all worlds, Margy as regent until her son comes of age. No matter how you spin it, dead Joffrey is a huge setback for the political aims of House Tyrell.

There is no evidence at all that Margaery was aware of the poison. None whatsoever. My assumptions are at least based on logical deductions derived directly from the text.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

No. Why? This is an argument no one is making, and something that isn't necessary for the plot, yet you feel the need to argue against it. 

Do you see the problem with Joffrey dying after consummating his marriage? It was of utmost importance that Margaery was still seen as a virgin when she was betrothed to Joffrey, after Renly's death. It would be just as important for her to still be seen that way after Joffrey died, so she could marry Tommen.

The thing with Joffrey, is that they know he is cruel. They just can't tell when that will finally show. Why wait, when you know that it will happen eventually? Why kill the king in private, eliminating all possible people who could be accused? Nor can you assume that Margaery will be installed as regent. Even if she has a child by Joffrey.

Why would it be important for Margaery to be seen as a virgin if Joffrey dies after she has delivered her one of more of his sons? Queen mothers rule as regent until their sons come of age. This is the clearly established precedent throughout the history of the iron throne, and it has been reinforced by Cersei. Margy doesn't have to remarry in order to remain as regent, just like Cersei didn't have to marry Stannis or Renly in order for her to take the reigns of power.

Your whole argument is based on the idea that Margy is nothing without a king for a husband, but this is simply not true, as Cersei shows. A king as your son is much better.

And again, there is no evidence to suggest that Joffrey meant to do Margy any harm, and numerous examples that prove conclusively that he was enamored of her. Maybe someday he would turn on her, but that could be years from now because, again, Margy is not Sansa. And also again, if that were to happen, there are many more easier and less risky ways to get rid of him than poisoning his wine at his own wedding. So therefore, there is no compelling reason for Lady O to remove Joffrey at this point because he shows no signs of harming Margy, and the Tyrells would have the real prize in all this -- a prince regent, not a queen -- within the year, rather than five more years in which anything could happen as they wait for Tommen.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:44 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

And why would Tywin ever start to raze through the Reach? There is no reason. House Tyrell and House Lannister have just formed an alliance together.

 

Fact remains, that by killing Tyrion, Olenna stands to gain nothing. A small council position opens up, yes, but that is filled quickly enough. Sansa is widowed, yes, but as far as she would have known, Tywin would have married her off to a Lannister as quickly as possible. Do not forget that Roose Bolton was named Warden of the North before the purple wedding already. Power of the North belongs to him now, not Sansa. Tyrion had his chance to grab the North, but he didn't do it fast enough, and Tywin immediately went on to the next plan, involving Roose, Ramsay, and a fake Arya. Sansa's claim to Winterfell, even before the wedding, was already greatly diminished even before she was accused of having a hand in Joffrey's murder.

Why did Tywin destroy the Reynes and Tarbecks? Things change. As I explained, the Lanns and the Tyrells formed an alliance out of necessity for the express reason of defeating the rival kings and securing the IT for Joffrey, with Margy as queen. Once that is done, the external threat is gone and everything goes back to business as usual. Except that Tywin now controls half the kingdom, he is a mad dog warrior who burns rival lands to the ground and crushes entire houses into the dust, and the Reach and the westerlands share a 500-league border that is the perfect scene for countless land disputes and other conflicts. Even if it doesn't come to war, it means Casterly Rock is enhanced at Highgarden's expense bit by tiny bit, because the Lannisters are now the most powerful house in the region -- a shift in the balance of power that has existed since the Age of Heroes.

A council seat? Are you kidding me? Lady O, along with everyone else with an ounce of sense, knows that power is maintained by force of arms, not council seats and appointments. Bolton or no, Sansa is the eldest daughter of Eddard Stark, so her children have the superior claim to Winterfell under all the laws of Westeros. And from Tywin's perspective, a grandson ruling Winterfell is a much safer bet than the continued support of Roose Bolton. So make no mistake about it: with Tyrion as her husband and Tywin as Hand, her children will rule in Winterfell, with Tyrion as the proxy lord until they come of age. Bolton will have to either give up the titles or face the power of the IT on his own.

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:53 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I've already suggested that once. I would have no problem ending the conversation right here.

If you want to stop, feel free. We've covered everything several times over. But I'll keep responding to factual misstatements and fanciful leaps in logic.

The whole truth will probably come out in Winds anyway. GRRM seems to have a 2-3 novel lag between mystery and reveal: think of the Arryn murder and the Jeyne Westerling conspiracy. And each time, we look back at the text and realize all the clues to figure it out were there all along, just like the poisoned pie.

 

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:46 AM, the trees have eyes said:

Poison was in the wine.  Joffrey has a death that happens slightly differnetly to Cressen's for dramatic effect and because GRRM chose to write it that way.  It's not down to GRRM's grasp of science or toxicity but art.

And you two should agree to disagree - no one is convincing anyone here.

GRRM is the most thorough, detail-oriented writer I've ever encountered. He may write for dramatic affect, but not to build plotlines out of facts that are inexorably wrong. He learned his lesson early on with the goof about Tyrion's tumbling.

Believe what you want, but know that your opinion is based on hope and imagination rather than text or actual fact:

"It's the pie, kof, the pie..."

[John Suburbs]

On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 10:41 AM, finger said:

You must have noticed that Tywin normally hired someone for the dirty job. He just charged it to LF. And you just have to remember your own arguments to involve Lady O. Apply them to Tywin under similar circumstances.

I can't spot the other clues, but there are. You can read stances where a "sharp lesson" is not really meant to teach anything. Or Tywin talking  of Joff, often resentful. In fact, it seems he blamed it on Cersei: he seems to punish her for having had to kill Joffrey. You won't find the ultimate statement, I concede, but if you add it all up, I think it makes sense.

Or, by reductio ad absurdum, shouln't Tywin have charged him with the task, would LF have dared to help the Tyrells with the murder? The answer is crystal clear to me, but I understand that other people can see it otherwise, or I try to understand, at least.

 

You must have noticed that Tywin normally hired someone for the dirty job. He just charged it to LF. And you just have to remember your own arguments to involve Lady O. Apply them to Tywin under similar circumstances.

I can't spot the other clues, but there are. You can read stances where a "sharp lesson" is not really meant to teach anything. Or Tywin talking  of Joff, often resentful. In fact, it seems he blamed it on Cersei: he seems to punish her for having had to kill Joffrey. You won't find the ultimate statement, I concede, but if you add it all up, I think it makes sense.

Or, by reductio ad absurdum, shouln't Tywin have charged him with the task, would LF have dared to help the Tyrells with the murder? The answer is crystal clear to me, but I understand that other people can see it otherwise, or I try to understand, at least.

Tywin could not bring himself to kill his own dwarf son when such an act would be viewed as a kindness by most people rather than murder. There is no way he is going to kill his grandson the king just because he threw a hissy fit. That would leave him with only one grandson to sit the Iron Throne, and it means Tommen could not become lord of Storm's End, diminishing Tywin's hold on the stormlands.

Tywin views family as a means to secure power, first by marriage, as with Cersei to RB, then by blood ties. It's why he is so disgusted by his own children, since they continue to act in ways that place their personal interests above those of House Lannister. This is in direct contract to the Tyrells, Margy in particular, who knows she must suffer a horrible husband, and perhaps a dangerous one, in order to fulfill the needs of her house.

So no, Tywin was not involved in Joffrey's murder. If you have any text at all, please share.

[OwloftheRainwood]

On 1/25/2016 at 1:04 PM, finger said:

Joffrey is a hindrance for both the lady O and Tywin. As you say, Tommen is more suitable. And I add, for both.

Tywin is a calculating, brutal operator who acts without mercy. However, he treats family differently and I see no evidence Joffrey is different...Tywin's "because you are my son" convo with Tyrion re proxy Handship, his prickling over Cat's nerve to seize Tyrion when he clearly disdains him etc. Joffrey was basically a Lannister king, Tywin made sacrifices and committed the sack of KL and the murders of Elia Martell and Rhaenys, maybe Aegon to maintain his position during/after RR and married Cersei to Robert. Tywin did not kill Joffrey.

[the trees have eyes]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Believe what you want, but know that your opinion is based on hope and imagination rather than text or actual fact:

"It's the pie, kof, the pie..."

No, I don't particularly care how the poison was administered so I don't "hope" for any particular circumstance.  We know that Sansa had the poison in her hairnet, that Lady Olenna removed it and that Joffrey died.  We also know that the poison is soluble and that the simplest way to administer it is via a drink - see Cressen's attempt for an obvious reference.  Nothing of the imagination here just text and actual "facts" as far as "facts" can be established when they are the product of an author's creative imagination.  The rest is reasoning and if you want to believe it's in the pie and that Joffrey nailed it with that one line then fair enough though it's odd that no one, most of all Tyrion, attempted that line of defence in the trial.  But like I said agreeing to disagree seems the smart move here.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

GRRM is the most thorough, detail-oriented writer I've ever encountered. He may write for dramatic affect, but not to build plotlines out of facts that are inexorably wrong. He learned his lesson early on with the goof about Tyrion's tumbling.

Believe what you want, but know that your opinion is based on hope and imagination rather than text or actual fact:

"It's the pie, kof, the pie..."

Fine, let's agree to accept Joffrey's expert opinion as, as you put it, "fact":

“See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.”

The pie was good, just dry. Joffrey said so. So, no poison in the pie. Did he give such an endorsement to the wine? Nope, he did not. Your own methodology.

But, seriously, this thread isn't supposed to be about that. If you want to promote your bold theory, just open a separate thread for it, instead of hijacking one about Littlefinger.

[finger]

Of course family is very important for Tywin, but he gets most pissed off when they fail him. Just remember his reactions with Cersei and Jaime. He all but disown them. If he feels that Joffrey was tearing apart all his life's efforts, I could believe he'd get rid of him.

But that's not the main argument. LF would never, ever, by no means, harm Joffrey if and only if Tywin had commanded him to do it. He knows better than exposing himself to Tywin's wrath. Even so, he's aware that someone who has dared harm a Lannister is prone to lead an hazardous life, so he flees to the Vale. Please notice what Tywin does about it all. Isn't it too tepid? Like if he knew that Tyrion was innocent.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Quote

Snp

Dude, believe whatever you want to believe. I find your explanations lacking, the assumptions too many, and the textual support that you've shown thus far is minimum. The wine-scenario has plenty of text supporting it, and only few assumptions need to be made, and thus, I'll keep believing in that one until we get new info that might imply another scenario.

I suggest we agree to disagree on this topic.

 

Just one thing I did want to mention... With the marriage of Margaery to either Joffrey or Tommen, the Tyrells have made themselves the one Kingdom which can count on support from the throne. They are the Kingdom least likely to see their lands disappear in Tywin's possession. You take lands and wealth from those who have defied you, not those who support you. The Reyne-Tarbeck situation is, therefore, not at all comparable. The Reyne's and Tarbecks had made a mock of House Lannister, defied them, on multiple occasions. That's why they were destroyed. House Lannister destroys its enemies, and House Tyrell is not their enemy.. As far as they know.

 

35 minutes ago, finger said:

Of course family is very important for Tywin, but he gets most pissed off when they fail him. Just remember his reactions with Cersei and Jaime. He all but disown them. If he feels that Joffrey was tearing apart all his life's efforts, I could believe he'd get rid of him.

But that's not the main argument. LF would never, ever, by no means, harm Joffrey if and only if Tywin had commanded him to do it. He knows better than exposing himself to Tywin's wrath. Even so, he's aware that someone who has dared harm a Lannister is prone to lead an hazardous life, so he flees to the Vale. Please notice what Tywin does about it all. Isn't it too tepid? Like if he knew that Tyrion was innocent.

But as far as Tywin was aware, Littlefinger had left KL weeks before, and had already arrived at the Vale. So what would there be for Tywin to act on?