A+J=T v.8

[A spoon of knife and fork]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I think that if he were to change his mind based on the published information, he should be free to say so. If it is because if information not publicly available (not printed, not stated in interviews, not stated during Q&A's, etc), then yeah, that information shouldn't be used.

But, if it is information not available to us that made him change his mind, and he is not willing to say at this point that he changed his mind, wouldn't it then be strange to assume that he is giving hints in favor of the theory, on purpose? 

I don't think Elio is giving hints.  He is saying, paraphrasing, "there is some background stuff in here people will use as evidence to support A+J=T and I think it could make quite a stir".  Which is quite different than "I think A+J=T" or "the world book convinced me that A+J=T".  The first one only implies he can objectively see that the stuff about Aerys and Johanna would be used as evidence, not that the theory is actually true in his opinion.  

ETA: and clearly, given the citadel faq about the theory that LV linked, Elio and Linda were aware of the evidence they just didn't buy it at the time (probably).  Still I don't think that today they would write their own opinion into the article as strongly as they do there (because they now most likely have more information than other readers).  

[Lost Melnibonean]

As to Cockshaw and Daemon, c'mon R_T, we all know it's hard to keep your finger out of the honey pot when it's sitting right there tasting so sweet. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to Cockshaw and Daemon, c'mon R_T, we all know it's hard to keep your finger out of the honey pot when it's sitting right there tasting so sweet. 

I new Alyn was crushing on Daemon (and had been, for a while), I just never noticed that Daemon had acted on that, either because he had (at one point, returned those feelings, or just because).. Daemon was just a small child when he left Westeros, and it doesn't sound like he had been back for long, so I had interpreted Alyn's behavior more as anger towards Dunk because Daemon was showing Dunk the kind of attention that Alyn had been trying to get all along, but never received.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I new Alyn was crushing on Daemon (and had been, for a while), I just never noticed that Daemon had acted on that, either because he had (at one point, returned those feelings, or just because).. Daemon was just a small child when he left Westeros, and it doesn't sound like he had been back for long, so I had interpreted Alyn's behavior more as anger towards Dunk because Daemon was showing Dunk the kind of attention that Alyn had been trying to get all along, but never received.

I imagine Daemon and Alyn had more than enough time to renew their friendship/relationship on the way to Whitewalls, and perhaps even earlier, at Starpike. We have to keep in mind that Cockshaw and Peake were both from the Reach, and Daemon most likely came to Westeros via a Reach harbor, say, Oldtown - rather than KL, directly under the nose of Aerys I and Bloodraven.

Cockshaw would have realized early on that things weren't as he imagined them, and subsequently did his best to get rid of any real or imagined rivals for Daemon's affection. We have to keep in mind that we have no clue what Daemon told Peake/Alyn about the meaning/destiny Dunk had ahead of him, but I'm sure he said something. Peake realized early on that he had to keep his hands off Dunk.

And Daemon's overall behavior when he was drunk with Dunk atop the castle suggests that he had no problem getting things going when he was in the mood.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I was looking for something else and stumbled across this reference to Aegon presumed by Doran to be Daenerys in a dialogue between Doran and Arianne, "Easy enough to hide a young dragon in a big cog's hold," which of course made me think of the twisted little monkey demon's escape from King's Landing. 

[UnmaskedLurker]

On 1/19/2016 at 7:31 PM, RumHam said:

20. What is the most relevant item we will learn from the World of Ice and Fire that involves the A Song of Ice and Fire storyline?

There's a great deal of information concerning Tywin Lannister and his friendship -- and then his falling out -- with Aerys, with some implications on matters concerning Tywin's children, and Aerys's children for that matter. Plus the Targaryen section's penultimate entry concerns the great tourney at Harrenhal, and certain mysterious matters surrounding it.

I didn't see that in the original post's list of supporting quotes. Maybe cause it's not from the books? But that seems like a really revealing quote to me. I can't imagine what else Elio could have been talking about. 

I am having some technical  difficulties with revealing hidden content, so maybe it is there and I just couldn't find it.

Edit: Link

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/2kgg2o/spoilers_all_ama_with_authors_of_the_world_of_ice/

I don't think the OP includes any quotes that are not direct quotes from one of the books. The list of quotes is supposed to be clues put in the books by GRRM -- not a quote from a third party noting that there are clues in WOIAF or elsewhere.

As to Ran and AJ/CJ and AJT -- I can tell you my recollection at the time that WOIAF was released. There was a thread in the WOIAF sub-forum discussing Ran's earlier comment that a common theory would be "casually smashed" by WOIAF. After the release of the book, Ran acknowledged that he was referencing A+J=C+J, and that it appeared from WOIAF that Joanna was not near KL when the twins were conceived. Someone pointed out that WOIAF noted that she "seldom" returned to KL during that period of time, and thus it was possible one of those seldom visits was when C&J were conceived. Ran acknowledged that smashed may have been an overstatement -- but the new information seemed to greatly reduce the likelihood of Aerys as father to Cersei and Jamie.

In the same thread, Ran acknowledged that the information about Joanna visiting KL at the anniversary tourney "added fuel to the fire" of A+J=T. He did not express a personal view on whether he thought A+J=T was accurate. By the tone of him comments, however, I got the sense that he was coming around to the possibility that this theory might be true. But I suspect Ran has become less inclined to put forth his personal view on the likelihood of theories being accurate.

[DMC]

On 1/19/2016 at 1:37 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion being Aerys' son by Joanna is the only reasonably interesting/important thing from the entire section of Aerys II. The details about the depth of Aerys and Tywin's friendship and their eventual falling out are interesting, but not really important for the overall story. Both men are dead, after all. Aerys and Rhaella not getting any children for a long period of time is also no news - we knew when Rhaegar was born, and we roughly knew when Viserys was born. It was pretty obvious that there must have been issues (sickness, stillbirths, miscarriages) that prevented the royal couple from having more children.

This is a rather extraordinary thing to assert when concurrently attesting that it wasn't until ADWD that you became convinced of the AJT theory.  The integral evidence since ADWD oft-cited in support of the theory is Barriston's hinting at a relationship, then further confirmation of some type of relationship between Aerys and Joanna, and of course the anniversary tourney in the Aerys II chapter.  It follows that the most convincing aspect of the theory is details of the Aerys/Tywin/Joanna triangle.  What is the Aerys II chapter loaded with?  Details about the Aerys/Tywin/Joanna triangle and how it affected the former two's relationship. 

That friendship could be "not really important" for the purposes of supporting AJT (although I would argue it is), but to say it is not important to the "overall story" is painfully myopic.  Perhaps not for TWOW, but the chapter is chock-full of contextualizing the characters of both men (two of the main figures in the "overall story"), how their relationship impacted essentially every key event during that time period (many of which very important to the series let alone a broader view of the overall story), and for illustrating the nature of Aerys' downfall - the inciting incident of ASOIAF.

The Aerys II chapter also sheds considerable light on how and why Tywin behaves in which he does, which has implications for myriad clues cited in the OP.  It is frankly my favorite chapter in the book precisely because it enhanced my perspective on much of what's mentioned above, regardless of the validity of AJT.  From an alternative perspective, the purpose of including the love triangle - and perhaps even Barriston's half-jittered revelation - is precisely to elucidate the dynamic of the Tywin/Aerys relationship and its importance on the overall story.  Just because this may not be relevant to future events does not mean it lacks importance or purpose - who's to say that's not Martin's intent for its inclusion?

Anyway, this whole discussion of Ran's intentions, beliefs, existential angst may be more amusing if it wasn't so useless.  What do we know?  He acknowledged fuel was added to the AJT fire - functionally stating a fact - and most prior statements indicate he is not a fan.  Empirically that is basically nothing.  Everything else is just filling a blank canvass to serve one's own arguments.

 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, dmc515 said:

stuff

The point I was trying to make is that any revelations about Aerys and Tywin that have no meaningful repercussions in regards to the story told in the remaining books are essentially irrelevant to the overall story. We actually don't have to know how and why Aerys and Tywin got estranged to understand what was going on - all we needed to know to understand what was going was that they were once friends and then they were not. That is what George already told us in the series. Getting the details now when there is no chance that Tywin/Kevan ever interact with a surviving member of Aerys' family makes this all interesting but not important information.

Just as, say, the story of Lynara and Rickard Stark is obviously completely irrelevant for the overall story because it is not really mentioned anywhere in the books regardless of the fact that we would all agree that it would be quite interesting due to the fact that these guys are the (grand)parents of some of the core characters of the series.

In my opinion, only the tidbit about Tyrion and the details about the Harrenhal tourney provide us with important stuff that deepens your understanding of things touched upon in the main series.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

17 hours ago, dmc515 said:

This is a rather extraordinary thing to assert when concurrently attesting that it wasn't until ADWD that you became convinced of the AJT theory.  The integral evidence since ADWD oft-cited in support of the theory is Barriston's hinting at a relationship, then further confirmation of some type of relationship between Aerys and Joanna, and of course the anniversary tourney in the Aerys II chapter.  It follows that the most convincing aspect of the theory is details of the Aerys/Tywin/Joanna triangle.  What is the Aerys II chapter loaded with?  Details about the Aerys/Tywin/Joanna triangle and how it affected the former two's relationship. 

That friendship could be "not really important" for the purposes of supporting AJT (although I would argue it is), but to say it is not important to the "overall story" is painfully myopic.  Perhaps not for TWOW, but the chapter is chock-full of contextualizing the characters of both men (two of the main figures in the "overall story"), how their relationship impacted essentially every key event during that time period (many of which very important to the series let alone a broader view of the overall story), and for illustrating the nature of Aerys' downfall - the inciting incident of ASOIAF.

The Aerys II chapter also sheds considerable light on how and why Tywin behaves in which he does, which has implications for myriad clues cited in the OP.  It is frankly my favorite chapter in the book precisely because it enhanced my perspective on much of what's mentioned above, regardless of the validity of AJT.  From an alternative perspective, the purpose of including the love triangle - and perhaps even Barriston's half-jittered revelation - is precisely to elucidate the dynamic of the Tywin/Aerys relationship and its importance on the overall story.  Just because this may not be relevant to future events does not mean it lacks importance or purpose - who's to say that's not Martin's intent for its inclusion?

Anyway, this whole discussion of Ran's intentions, beliefs, existential angst may be more amusing if it wasn't so useless.  What do we know?  He acknowledged fuel was added to the AJT fire - functionally stating a fact - and most prior statements indicate he is not a fan.  Empirically that is basically nothing.  Everything else is just filling a blank canvass to serve one's own arguments.

 

I think the friendship of Aerys and Tywin points out that Aerys wasn't necessarily mad, but was more just a vile, power consumed evil prick.

It looks to me that Aerys making Jaime a King's Guard was actually a brilliant move, first it drives a dagger right in the heart of Tywin (Aerys' perceived rival), secondly it weakens House Lannister and the Westerlands greatly as Jaime can not be the Lord of Casterly Rock in the future therefore lessening a case of eventual rebellion from them, and thirdly it provided Aerys with a hostage encase Tywin does actually try to revolt.

[UnmaskedLurker]

3 minutes ago, King Viserys Targaryen IV said:

I think the friendship of Aerys and Tywin points out that Aerys wasn't necessarily mad, but was more just a vile, power consumed evil prick.

It looks to me that Aerys making Jaime a King's Guard was actually a brilliant move, first it drives a dagger right in the heart of Tywin (Aerys' perceived rival), secondly it weakens House Lannister and the Westerlands greatly as Jaime can not be the Lord of Casterly Rock in the future therefore lessening a case of eventual rebellion from them, and thirdly it provided Aerys with a hostage encase Tywin does actually try to revolt.

And it makes Aerys's son technical heir to CR.

[Lord Lannister]

44 minutes ago, King Viserys Targaryen IV said:

I think the friendship of Aerys and Tywin points out that Aerys wasn't necessarily mad, but was more just a vile, power consumed evil prick.

It looks to me that Aerys making Jaime a King's Guard was actually a brilliant move, first it drives a dagger right in the heart of Tywin (Aerys' perceived rival), secondly it weakens House Lannister and the Westerlands greatly as Jaime can not be the Lord of Casterly Rock in the future therefore lessening a case of eventual rebellion from them, and thirdly it provided Aerys with a hostage encase Tywin does actually try to revolt.

Aerys was said to be rather suave and charming and his fits of madness and paranoia really didn't kick in until he was older. It certainly doesn't mean he wasn't capable or smart in his own right at any give time. How he went about weakening Tywin's position after all was quite smooth, the fault in it was in making an enemy of Tywin, essentially for no reason. We saw what that cost him.

[UnmaskedLurker]

2 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Aerys was said to be rather suave and charming and his fits of madness and paranoia really didn't kick in until he was older. It certainly doesn't mean he wasn't capable or smart in his own right at any give time. How he went about weakening Tywin's position after all was quite smooth, the fault in it was in making an enemy of Tywin, essentially for no reason. We saw what that cost him.

IIRC -- It was after his kidnapping in connection with the Defiance of Duskendale when Aerys started to act really crazy and paranoid.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

37 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

IIRC -- It was after his kidnapping in connection with the Defiance of Duskendale when Aerys started to act really crazy and paranoid.

Was that before or after Jaime joining the King's Guard? Before right?

Jaime entered @ Harrenhall Tournament and the rebellion started shortly after that, so it had to before. Right?

[UnmaskedLurker]

6 minutes ago, King Viserys Targaryen IV said:

Was that before or after Jaime joining the King's Guard? Before right?

Jaime entered @ Harrenhall Tournament and the rebellion started shortly after that, so it had to before. Right?

I looked at the wiki and you are right. The Defiance occurred during 277. Jaime become KG at age 15 -- he was born in 266, so raised to KG in either 281 or 282. And according to the wiki, Robert's Rebellion starts in 282. So Aerys was full into his supposed "crazy" mode by the time Jaime is selected for KG -- which shows that maybe Aerys was more "crazy like a fox" than actual "crazy" -- even if he did seem to become paranoid and take on some odd habits.

[Lord Varys]

Yandel's description of Aerys' state of mind is coherent with the tiny bits we knew before TWoIaF - that Aerys used to have so-called 'lapses' which were thereafter (easily) forgiven because the king wasn't exactly a vindictive or cruel guy. Aerys' crueler tendencies only begin with Duskendale - before that, he had people executed and tortured only during his mad lapses (the most prominent being the one after the death of Prince Jaehaerys for which he later made amends). But only after Duskendale became cruel judgments a part of the king's daily routine.

The lapses came ever more frequent and apparently had Aerys completely in their grip during Harrenhal (sudden mood swings, etc.). Whether his decision to name Jaime to the KG was part of sane/rational agenda or an idea that was fed to him by Cersei in some fashion we don't really know yet.

Aerys' treatment of Tywin during the years doesn't show any madness. He appears to be just mean the way certain people who are jealous of their best friends can be. Jokes on somebody else's expense is what is called harassing these days, and it may be that the whole thing was just 'fun' on Aerys' side for a couple of years. However, note that Aerys never directly attacked or threatened Tywin during his saner years. Later on his paranoia makes him too afraid of Tywin to actually fire him.

The fact that the anniversary tourney was as early as 272 AC is, for me, a good hint that the sex between Aerys and Joanna was either consensual or Tywin had no clue that Aerys had raped Joanna. If Tywin had known or suspected anything like that, and if Aerys had known or suspected that Tywin might know/learn of it, one would simply expect some sort of stronger reaction from both of them (either Tywin resigning against the king's wishes, or Tywin using a way to get away from court later on - say, after Tyrion's birth - or Aerys earlier developing paranoia that Tywin was out to get him - instead such ideas only developed after Duskendale).

[RumHam]

1 hour ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I looked at the wiki and you are right. The Defiance occurred during 277. Jaime become KG at age 15 -- he was born in 266, so raised to KG in either 281 or 282. And according to the wiki, Robert's Rebellion starts in 282. So Aerys was full into his supposed "crazy" mode by the time Jaime is selected for KG -- which shows that maybe Aerys was more "crazy like a fox" than actual "crazy" -- even if he did seem to become paranoid and take on some odd habits.

I seem to recall he appointed Jaime out of spite and then almost immediately realized he'd made a mistake and worried about the idea of Tywin's son having a sword in his presence. 

Edit:

Quote

Scarce had the thing been done, however, than King Aerys II began to nurse grave doubts about his new protector. The king had seized upon the notion of bringing Ser Jaime into his Kingsguard as a way of humbling his old friend, Grand Maester Pycelle tells us. Only now, belatedly, did His Grace come to the realization that he would henceforth have Lord Tywin’s son beside him day and night … with a sword at his side. The thought frightened him so badly that he could hardly eat at that night’s feast, Pycelle avows.

 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I looked at the wiki and you are right. The Defiance occurred during 277. Jaime become KG at age 15 -- he was born in 266, so raised to KG in either 281 or 282. And according to the wiki, Robert's Rebellion starts in 282. So Aerys was full into his supposed "crazy" mode by the time Jaime is selected for KG -- which shows that maybe Aerys was more "crazy like a fox" than actual "crazy" -- even if he did seem to become paranoid and take on some odd habits.

Since the tourney is known to have occured in 281 AC, and Jaime was appointed there, he was definitly raised to the KG in 281 AC.

6 minutes ago, RumHam said:

I seem to recall he appointed Jaime out of spite and then almost immediately realized he'd made a mistake and worried about the idea of Tywin's son having a sword in his presence. 

Edit:

 

Also this one:

King Aerys made a great show of Jaime’s investiture. He said his vows before the king’s pavilion, kneeling on the green grass in white armor while half the realm looked on. When Ser Gerold Hightower raised him up and put the white cloak about his shoulders, a roar went up that Jaime still remembered, all these years later. But that very night Aerys had turned sour, declaring that he had no need of seven Kingsguard here at Harrenhal. Jaime was commanded to return to King’s Landing to guard the queen and little Prince Viserys, who’d remained behind. Even when the White Bull offered to take that duty himself, so Jaime might compete in Lord Whent’s tourney, Aerys had refused. “He’ll win no glory here,” the king had said. “He’s mine now, not Tywin’s. He’ll serve as I see fit. I am the king. I rule, and he’ll obey.”
That was the first time that Jaime understood. It was not his skill with sword and lance that had won him his white cloak, nor any feats of valor he’d performed against the Kingswood Brotherhood. Aerys had chosen him to spite his father, to rob Lord Tywin of his heir.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, RumHam said:

I seem to recall he appointed Jaime out of spite and then almost immediately realized he'd made a mistake and worried about the idea of Tywin's son having a sword in his presence.

Aerys only realized his mistake after the actual investiture. But quite some time must have passed between Jaime asking the king to accept him into his Kingsguard, and Aerys accepting, since both must have happened back in KL. The details of that are still unclear, by the way. We have the Cersei-Jaime meeting and her promising she'll see to it that Aerys accepts, but Jaime has us never given his memory of the moment when he presented himself to the king and asked him to make him his Kingsguard. Aerys could not have possibly just commanded that Jaime join the KG against his will (that's the show, not the books!).

And one really wonders where Tywin was during that moment, and what he did if he witnessed the whole thing...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aerys only realized his mistake after the actual investiture. But quite some time must have passed between Jaime asking the king to accept him into his Kingsguard, and Aerys accepting, since both must have happened back in KL. The details of that are still unclear, by the way. We have the Cersei-Jaime meeting and her promising she'll see to it that Aerys accepts, but Jaime has us never given his memory of the moment when he presented himself to the king and asked him to make him his Kingsguard. Aerys could not have possibly just commanded that Jaime join the KG against his will (that's the show, not the books!).

And one really wonders where Tywin was during that moment, and what he did if he witnessed the whole thing...

The passage from Storm suggests that Jaime didn't go and present himself to Aerys to ask him.

He remembered that night as if it were yesterday. They spent it in an old inn on Eel Alley, well away from watchful eyes. Cersei had come to him dressed as a simple serving wench, which somehow excited him all the more. Jaime had never seen her more passionate. Every time he went to sleep, she woke him again. By morning Casterly Rock seemed a small price to pay to be near her always. He gave his consent, and Cersei promised to do the rest.

[purple-eyes]

Actually, Kingswood battle can possibly happen in late 280. 

Jaime was 15 when he was knighted. 

He was born 276. 

He could be 15 years old in 280 too.