Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

UnmaskedLurker

A+J=T v.8

Recommended Posts

The Moqorro thing really is a non-issue in this discussion. Moqorro doesn't tell Tyrion anything about his fate, but lets him actually believe he would reach Meereen by ship and not end up as a slave. Why should anyone believe the character of Moqorro as George imagines him would actually want to tell Tyrion the truth about what he saw?

More importantly, people usually forget that it is still a huge mystery why the hell Benerro/Moqorro and the Widow of the Waterfront relented and allowed Jorah and Tyrion to join Moqorro after the Widow had recognized Tyrion. What possible reason could Benerro/Moqorro have to drag Tyrion along with them to Meereen? (1)

And what reason do Varys and Illyrio have to use Tyrion for their plans? (2) Getting information on dragonlore could be acquired much more easily, especially in light of the fact that Tyrion is mostly forced to work from memory. Illyrio and Varys (and Connington and Haldon) can read, too, after all, so the real trouble is getting the right books, not getting the right dwarf.

One can argue that Varys/Illyrio think they could use Tyrion as a pawn in the eventual conquest of Westeros, and install him as new Lord of Casterly Rock. But this would be actually counterproductive to either Aegon's or Dany's cause because of Tyrion's reputation as kingslayer and kinslayer. He is not going to win Dany or Aegon any sympathy in Westeros even among the people hating the Lannisters. Not to mention that Varys still has Tyrek Lannister as a potential pawn, he doesn't need Tyrion at all for this.

In Benerro/Moqorro's case the motivation is even harder to guess since we have no reason to assume that they (or the Widow) have any interest in the Iron Throne of Westeros. (3) They have their own plans for Dany, just as they have their own interpretation what the prophecy means. Plans that most likely involve the end of slavery and Volantis and not Westeros. Pairing Dany with a guy who might steer her towards Westeros and possibly even convince her to ignore Volantis wouldn't make any sense for them.

In that sense, one really has to ask where the importance of Tyrion lies if it is not his Lannister heritage or his knowledge. Many people think it is about his insight into Westerosi politics, but Varys and Illyrio would both know more about that than Tyrion ever could, and any knowledge Tyrion might have about the Lords of Westeros would only come into play when Dany/Aegon invade.

If you think about all that Tyrion could easily have remained a prisoner in Illyrio's manse until such time as the invasion began and Illyrio joined the gang there. There was no reason to send Tyrion to Dany in person.

But if both Varys/Illyrio and Benerro/Moqorro knew that Tyrion could (or would) become a dragonrider, then both may have had a reason to send him to the dragons. (4) And pretty much no one would believe Tyrion could become a dragonrider - most certainly not Tyrion himself, eventually - if he had no Targaryen blood. Tyrion will never try to mount a dragon if he is not convinced that he has Targaryen blood. He has way too much knowledge about dragonlore to ever believe that you don't need dragonlord blood to claim a dragon.

(1) What reason could Benerro and Moqorro have? That seems relatively simple. Because they have seen (assuming they interpreted what they had seen correctly, for a moment) that Tyrion does something, whatever it is that he'll do, that will be important for Daenerys's cause. Perhaps we've already seen part of this in the sample chapters..

Tyrion convinces Ben Plumm to join Daenerys's side again. Completely separate, the Windblown have switched sides as well, from Yunkai to Meereen. One sellsword company changing sides might not cause the others to doubt the strength of their cause.. If two sellsword companies switch sides, that might set in movement an entire abandonment of the Yunkish troops.. 

Additionally, Tyrion being a part of the Second Sons at the moment, this switching of sides allows him to get closer to the troops of Meereen.. And the dragons.. 

 

I believe that Yunkai losing the Battle at Meereen is foreshadowed as being directly associated with the Second Sons, and possibly with the loss of the trebuchets at the hands of the Second Sons, a plan lead by Tyrion.

 

(2) What reason do these two have? I agree sort of disagree with the statement that Tyrion's political knowledge doesn't matter to them.. Varys made it clear in Clash that he likes the way Tyrion plays the game, and we have seent hat Tyrion is good at it. 

But look at the bigger picture. Illyrio tells Tyrion he's going to Daenerys, but he's actually going to Aegon, first. Only he's not told that. When Connington was to reveal Aegon's identity to Tyrion, is unknown. But it would have been logical to have done so before revealing Aegon to Daenerys... It wouldn't help them at all if Tyrion were to be sceptical and voice this in Daenerys's presence, after all.

The dragonlore... They can all read such books, sure, but it does sound like such books are actually rare and difficult to find. I think most of the dragon-lore that wasn't Westerosi was found in Valyria, and the Doom would have taken that all. Leaving the Westerosi accounts (which were diminished in numbers due to Baelor, unfortunately), and those accounts in other places in Essos.. But we don't know how many they are, but again, it doesn't sound as if there is much left. Aegon V "hoped to find texts and knowledge" that wasn't available in Westeros... If there was so much left, why could the king only hope to find it? If there's much left, he should have been more certain to get it, wouldn't he? 

Tyrion's status as a kinslayer (and kingslayer) is a disadvantage.. The fact that he can testify that Cersei's children aren't Cersei's children, is a major advantage. 

 

And perhaps, they were thinking that, in the end, when Tyrion had no further purpose, Daenerys and Aegon could execute him for his crimes, openly, on Westerosi soil, so show that House Targaryen is just.

 

(3) I've mentioned Benerro and Moqorro's motives above.. And for that, it doesn't matter much what Tyrion will do... It will be something that will benefit them, and for which they believe they need Tyrion. 

The Widow actually does give us a little bit of an insight into her interest in the entire issue. 

“As you say.” Tyrion grinned. “If I were Volantene, and free, and had the blood, you’d have my vote for triarch, my lady.”
“I am no lady,” the widow replied, “just Vogarro’s whore. You want to be gone from here before the tigers come. Should you reach your queen, give her a message from the slaves of Old Volantis.” She touched the faded scar upon her wrinkled cheek, where her tears had been cut away. “Tell her we are waiting. Tell her to come soon.”

Daenerys is known for freeing slaves, Volantis has five slaves for every freedman. The Widow wants Daenerys to come to Volantis, presumably in order to free all the slaves.

 

(4) Firstly, even if the theory is true, how Varys and Illyrio would know about it? Varys arrived in Westeros years after Tyrion's birth, and years after Joanna's death, at a time where Aerys was no longer keeping a mistress.. 

Secondly, they know Tyrion... And his ability to influence situations, etc. If they want him to fullfill such an imporant role as becoming the third head, why allow him to venture outside of Illyrio's manse? If that were the case, why not keep him safely hidden, instead of out in the open, while dwarfs are being hunten in the name of the Iron Throne?

 

A question people seem to ignore/not give much thought is the content of the letter Illyrio sent to Connington alongside Tyrion. It could be news about Tyrion's deeds in KL, but there would be no need to hide them in a letter Tyrion is not allowed to read. Connington is skeptical of Tyrion's commitment to their cause but one would assume that Illyrio would not try to convince him to take Tyrion with him as an ally with an argument as stupid as 'He has killed his father, Lord Tywin, and possibly also his own nephew, King Joffrey therefore we have to trust him and he is obviously on our side and a die-hard Targaryen loyalist like you yourself are.' Yet Connington takes Tyrion under his wing anyway, and there has to be some explanation for that, too. 'He knows stuff about dragons' certainly cannot be nothing but a superficial explanation, especially in light of the fact that Connington and Illyrio have no way of knowing what Dany might figure out about the dragons on her own or whether she might consult some books on dragonlore by herself in Volantis.

Illyrio needed to get information to Connington. The way to do that, was per letter. The letter certainly contained info about Tyrion. Who he was, what he had done... Connington is clear about that.

How else was Illyrio going to get the info to Connington? He apparently doesn't want anyone else of the company to know.. Haldon and Duck aren't told at their meeting, and Connington doesn't seem to tell them after. Connington would not have believed or trusted the info if it had come from Tyrion himself, so the info coming from Illyrio was necessary, and apparently it needed to be kept from the others. Hence the letter.

Connington burning the letter, might partly have been his personality. He had read the info, knows the info, and the letter becomes unnecessary. The others are not allowed to know the info yet (about Tyrion, at least), and Tyrion is too new in the group to be trusted with anything else. Hence, he burns the letter. He's the man in charge, after all.

That Tyrion has knowledge about dragons, appears to have been in the letter as well. Otherwise, I can't recall how Connington came up with the idea to make Tyrion write down all the dragonlore he could recall. Info that could be usefull, but it is also something that keeps Tyrion occupied.. and out of trouble.

Illyrio and Varys could have known that Tyrion would figure out Aegon's identity on his own, I guess. Just as Griff's identity. Perhaps they felt it necessary to send Tyrion along with them so Daenerys would be more convinced that Aegon is the real deal. Who knows?

 

What more could have been in the letter..? Lots of things, I guess. Updates on Illyrio bribing one of the triarchs in Volantis, info about Daenerys's last known movements, about all Daenerys has done so far.. An update on the Golden Company. Jon Connington is on a poleboat, trying to stay out of sight. We have no idea how recent the information is he himself is able to gather.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You wrote one very long analysis (it went on for quite a bit) -- and at that time I did not have time to read is carefully, let alone reply. I also, as you note, did not want to write a long reply just to have it lost in the change-over to the new platform. I committed to replying, so yes, of course I printed it out and put it aside (knowing I would have a hard time finding it again on the forum). I just seem to be unable to find it. If you think you have refined your thinking, then yes, go ahead and write a new version, and I will stop trying to find the print-out. Therefore -- Word (I just said -- "the word"). :) 

I have no idea when I'll have the time to do it, I'm quite behind on several projects.. But I'll write, though I can't promise on when I'll be able to post it :) 

 

I think you are making way too much of this fact. I think what is more important than the reference to Tyrion as a man is that Tyrion is NOT referred to as a LION. If the Targs are all appearing as Dragons -- why doesn't Tyrion appear as a Lion? GRRM needs to keep certain things hidden from the reader longer -- so he chooses to have Tyrion be a man (neither a dragon nor a lion) in order to keep the mystery going -- and he refers to him as a man because he wants to emphasize his size. He could have avoided using the word man -- but only if he also gave up on using the word small (which is then contrasted with his big shadow). So GRRM wanted to emphasize that despite Tyrion's size (a small man) -- he is going to be in the middle of the action and will have great power ("with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all").

Why doens't Tyrion appear as a lion? A good question, and one I don't have an answer to. Quaithe does see him as a lion, apparently. Does that mean anything?

 

Hey SS -- hope your new year is going well. You might have noticed above that RT has agreed to re-do her full analysis objecting to this theory - which I have committed to responding to (the last attempt got side tracked--but she says she has refined her thoughts so maybe for the best). Quibbling with her over individual clues is kind of pointless after all this time debating with her. We all know there are possible alternative explanations for each clue -- that is the way GRRM writes -- he does not want to definitively give anything away. And we have debated these issues with RT long enough to know that arguing clue-by-clue will go nowhere. We believe that the totality of the clues are persuasive -- she does not -- and no amount of evidence will change her mind. Similarly -- no amount of pointing out the alternative explanation for each clue with change our mind. For new readers, I suppose this back-and-forth is useful -- but it is not really advancing any discussion between us and her.

But I think that a more thorough explanation of her analysis might allow us to really understand what her underlying objections are and maybe respond to them in a comprehensive way that might move the discussion along.

RT--If you read this post -- let me know if I have misrepresented anything.

Well, I can't say that the statement of "no amount of evidence will change her mind" is true.. I am currently not convinced by the arguments provided.. If the evidence or arguments/explanations change, my opinion might change as well. It has happened with other theories before, so why not with this one? I have no personal dislike for Tyrion's parentage. My objection to the theory is purely about the fact that I feel something is lacking, at the moment.

I've wondered "what if" at times before concerning this theory, and I've already stated that around the time the world book was released, I was almost convinced for a little while. I can't remember exactly what it was that made me go back to not believing the theory. But there was something that, after a few days of almost being swayed, made me think that it wasn't enough.

I personally like the fact that we can keep discussing this (and especially the way how we've been discussing this - despite the fact that we disagree on this topic, the conversations have been pleasant and respectful.. I hope you guys feel the same way), because it keeps me thinking about such details.. It keeps me looking for patterns... This is a series in which there are always new discoveries to be made. I made a new one this morning when reading a Daenerys chapter, for example. A chapter I had read many times before. And that's what keeps this interesting, and entertaining.

 

 

Hey Happy New Year!!

I can't wait to read it.  RT, don't you think that your resolve has lessened slightly? I mean we must have convinced you a little bit by now, more so than before UL started these AJT threads no doubt.  I mean Tyrion did see Drogon on the river when no one else did, that's got to mean something :D

but also, just the sheer number of clues that all pointed to one thing.  Even if you can find an alternate explanation for all them, the fact that there are sooooo many clues now means that by the laws of statistics we must be right about some of them. Know what I mean?

To be fair, we still don't know what Tyrion saw.

The TV series let Tyrion see Drogon, but that doesn't necessarily mean he saw the same dragon in the books. It might make it more likely than it had been before, but both the distance, as well as the fact that a darkly coloured dragon would

actually have to appear pale in mist (which is already pale), seems odd..

I've already stated at the time, that it might make it more likely than it had been before, but by no means does it confirm it. Why would the show make Tyrion see an animal which has never been mentioned before (like wyverns)?

 

About the clues... I am convinced that Jon is Lyanna's son by Rhaegar. But that doesn't mean that I agree with all the clues that have been presented as clues for that theory. I can't agree with all of them. So what you might call a clue in favor of this theory, I can strongly disagree with, even if this theory is confirmed tomorrow. A point which, when I write the post I promised UL, I'll touch upon.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no idea when I'll have the time to do it, I'm quite behind on several projects.. But I'll write, though I can't promise on when I'll be able to post it :) 

 

Well, I can't say that the statement of "no amount of evidence will change her mind" is true.. I am currently not convinced by the arguments provided.. If the evidence or arguments/explanations change, my opinion might change as well. It has happened with other theories before, so why not with this one? I have no personal dislike for Tyrion's parentage. My objection to the theory is purely about the fact that I feel something is lacking, at the moment.

I've wondered "what if" at times before concerning this theory, and I've already stated that around the time the world book was released, I was almost convinced for a little while. I can't remember exactly what it was that made me go back to not believing the theory. But there was something that, after a few days of almost being swayed, made me think that it wasn't enough.

I personally like the fact that we can keep discussing this (and especially the way how we've been discussing this - despite the fact that we disagree on this topic, the conversations have been pleasant and respectful.. I hope you guys feel the same way), because it keeps me thinking about such details.. It keeps me looking for patterns... This is a series in which there are always new discoveries to be made. I made a new one this morning when reading a Daenerys chapter, for example. A chapter I had read many times before. And that's what keeps this interesting, and entertaining.

 

 

About the clues... I am convinced that Jon is Lyanna's son by Rhaegar. But that doesn't mean that I agree with all the clues that have been presented as clues for that theory. I can't agree with all of them. So what you might call a clue in favor of this theory, I can strongly disagree with, even if this theory is confirmed tomorrow. A point which, when I write the post I promised UL, I'll touch upon.

 

RT -- I understand time constraints. Of course you should get to it whenever you can. No pressure intended from me.

I should have been clearer on what I meant by "no amount of evidence" will convince you. What I should have said is that I don't think a continued collection of one-off clues of the nature that has been presented recently is likely to sway you because any such quotes or information -- in isolation -- will not be determinative. If any determinative evidence existed -- we would have found it by now.

What I was trying to suggest is the way to get at the issues between us is not to continue to quibble on a clue-by-clue basis but to try to understand the underlying reason for why you find the theory unconvincing and try to present an argument to you (not really additional evidence -- just a logical argument) that addresses your objections and explains why they should not lead you to reject the theory. I am not suggesting such an approach will work -- just that it is more likely to be fruitful than continuing to engage in the same recent pattern of present new little quote or clue and have you point out that it is not definitive proof and has an alternative potential explanation (which we all already know -- as I said, that is how GRRM writes).

Of course I agree that this exchange has been pleasant and respectful. If it had not been, I would not have continued the exchange and certainly would not have asked you to produce your extended analysis. I grow wearisome rather quickly with trolls or belligerent presentation of arguments. I would have stopped responding to you long ago if I considered this exchange unpleasant (although I stubbornly will never put someone on ignore no matter how irritating their posts happen to be -- I just won't ever respond to them).

As to not all the clues really being clues -- even if A+J=T turns out to be true -- I agree with you 100%. Once people know what they think they are looking for, then tend to find patterns everywhere. So even if true, people are bound to find "clues" that really are just "coincidences" at most. That is why even though I thought this theory likely was true before release of TWOIAF, only after its release did I become convinced of the overwhelmingly likelihood of its accuracy. The OP is intended to put out the main clues that have been presented over time by many different people (largely collected from A+J=T v.1 originally, which was done before my time, and then tweaked periodically since) -- not necessarily each one something that I personally consider to be a real clue. I did delete the "clue" about the burnt bacon because it was becoming too distracting to the discussion and enough people recommended removing it that I did so. But that does not mean that other clues on the list are ones that I actually think are really genuine clues. But there are enough that appear to be strong clues to me -- mainly the deaths of the 3 mothers (taking the 3 heads of the dragon prophecy into account) and the inclusion in WOIAF of Joanna at KL in the year prior to Tyrion's -- that I find it difficult to imagine what GRRM is getting at if he is not planting clues for A+J=T.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rhaenys,

1. Benerro/Moqorro motivation: I'm sure this is partially or even mostly about the slavery issue and a regime change in Volantis, but I don't think the argument that 'something Tyrion does or already has done in the political field' is very good to explain why the hell they take him on board. And it would have been Benerro/Moqorro who made that decision, not the Widow.

'Daenerys' cause' also would have nothing to do with Benerro/Moqorro's cause. They might selflessly want her to fulfill her destiny or they might intend to use her as a tool to get done what they think is R'hllor's plan (for their church and the world). The idea that Tyrion should somehow be crucial for winning the battle(s) of Meereen doesn't make much sense. Moqorro himself ensured that Victarion and the Iron Fleet arrived in time - they are the big surprise. Do you really think that Brown Ben would have stuck to the Yunkishmen after Daznak's Pit and the attack from two sides during the unfolding battle in the sample chapters? Imagine for a moment that both Jorah and Tyrion wouldn't be there - Brown Ben would either have switched to Selmy or decided to stay out of the battle until it was clear which side would win. And the Second Sons most certainly won't be the deciding factor in that battle. If George wanted to do that he would have set up the Yunkish Allies as a real threat, and not as a pitiful caricature of an army. The only real threats are the Company of the Cat and the Ghiscari legions. And Barristan's troops should be able to put them down without actually needing the help of the Windblown or the Second Sons (although their help will ensure that the Yunkishmen are defeated much more quickly, and much more decisively).

2. Varys/Illyrio and Tyrion: Varys liked how Tyrion played the game, yes, but he also ensured that he'll never be able to play the game this way. He helped to ruin his reputation in Westeros, after all. The idea that Tyrion would be a good player in foreign lands where he doesn't know the people makes little sense, meaning that Tyrion's abilities/knowledge in the political field would only be of use when Aegon/Dany invaded Westeros, not before. But his use would be very limited there. Varys himself is at Aegon's service, and he is a much better player than Tyrion will ever be. If Varys wanted an ideal Hand for Aegon/Dany why not choose himself? Varys may be a eunuch, but his own reputation should be much better still than Tyrion's after the kingslayer and kinslayer thing. Not to mention that Illyrio, Connington, or Haldon are also up to the task. If George wanted to sell us the idea that Varys and Illyrio need Tyrion because of his political skills he should not have introduced Connington or Haldon (and certainly not Varys and Illyrio themselves, at least not as people who are likely to join Aegon/Dany in their new Westerosi court).

I'd agree that it is likely that Connington might have told Tyrion about Aegon before their meeting with Daenerys, but there is no reason to believe that Connington would necessarily have allowed Tyrion to be present when he first presented Aegon to Daenerys. Nor is there any reason to believe that Dany would have been keen to trust an ugly dwarf named Lannister over an old friend of Rhaegar's who also happens to be a close friend of Illyrio's.

In the dragonlore department Tyrion is as restricted to the books Illyrio gave him and the ones he once read and what he still remembers as anyone else. There is no reason to believe that Tyrion Lannister ever read the really important dragonlore books. In fact, ADwD greatly suggests that he knows where really great stuff might be found, but never laid an eye on them himself. Therefore his use is greatly limited. And we have to keep in mind that Tyrion read all his dragonlore books in a time when the dragons were all dead. Tyrion read those books out of his general curiosity, not because he researched certain topics on dragonlore like dragonbreeding or dragonbonding.

The idea that good books about dragonlore are only to be found in Westeros or Valyria makes no sense. Good knowledge about dragonlore in Westeros would have come there with the Targaryens, and they would have brought it with them from Valyria. In light of the fact that the rulers of Lys and Volantis are effectively dragonlords without dragons (i.e. cadet branches who for whatever reason did not get any dragons) there is really no reason to believe that there is no good knowledge on dragons to be found in Volantis or Lys. The greatest Westerosi authority on dragons seems to have been Septon Barth, and what Yandel tells us seems to suggests that most of his knowledge came from conclusions or speculations he did on the basis of older literature he read and things he observed. That would include Valyrian dragonlore.

Cersei's children: Tyrion has no proof that Cersei's children aren't Robert's. All he can do is claim that this is the case, but in light of the fact that he has murdered Joffrey and his own father and is in the company of people who want to overthrow the children of King Robert, he would be of no good use. Not to mention that it does not really matter to Aegon/Dany who fathered Cersei's children. They have to go in any case, and since Stannis has claimed they are bastards Dany and Aegon could just repeat that accusation themselves if they wanted to.

I think I already covered the third point.

4. Varys is good at figuring stuff out. He was Master of Whisperers for a few years while Tywin still served as Hand, and his little birds would have overheard every private conversation within the Tower of the Hand. Not to mention that they and Varys had access to Tywin's solar and apartments. It is, of course, possible that Tywin never again spoke about his feelings for Joanna and Tyrion after the former's death, but somehow I don't think that's the case. Especially not if he blamed Aerys for her untimely end or had still unresolved issues with the Aerys-Joanna affair after all those years (and the latter can not really be dismissed easily in light of the fact that the affair as such has been confirmed).

But even if this wasn't the case - Varys had the ear of the king, and Aerys apparently trusted him. It is no stretch to assume that Aerys II himself told or hinted at the fact that he was Tyrion's father when he talked to Varys.

As to the dragonrider thing: They sent their blue-haired lad off to Volantis, too, to meet his future queen. If the life of their golden boy can be risked, then there is no reason to believe they would not risk the life of Tyrion.

The letter thing:

Duck and Haldon know very important stuff. Like what's in those chest Illyrio gave to them. Only very important information would be considered secret enough to be for Connington's eyes only. Considering how important the knowledge about the contents of the chests might be, one would assume that knowledge about something as trivial as Tyrion's true identity, his deeds in Westeros, Illyrio's deeds, news on Dany could also have told openly to Duck and Haldon. Yeah, Illyrio could also have handed them a letter giving a written account to Connington, but apparently what was in the letter was for his eyes only.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rhaenys,

1. Benerro/Moqorro motivation: I'm sure this is partially or even mostly about the slavery issue and a regime change in Volantis, but I don't think the argument that 'something Tyrion does or already has done in the political field' is very good to explain why the hell they take him on board. And it would have been Benerro/Moqorro who made that decision, not the Widow.

'Daenerys' cause' also would have nothing to do with Benerro/Moqorro's cause. They might selflessly want her to fulfill her destiny or they might intend to use her as a tool to get done what they think is R'hllor's plan (for their church and the world). The idea that Tyrion should somehow be crucial for winning the battle(s) of Meereen doesn't make much sense. Moqorro himself ensured that Victarion and the Iron Fleet arrived in time - they are the big surprise. Do you really think that Brown Ben would have stuck to the Yunkishmen after Daznak's Pit and the attack from two sides during the unfolding battle in the sample chapters? Imagine for a moment that both Jorah and Tyrion wouldn't be there - Brown Ben would either have switched to Selmy or decided to stay out of the battle until it was clear which side would win. And the Second Sons most certainly won't be the deciding factor in that battle. If George wanted to do that he would have set up the Yunkish Allies as a real threat, and not as a pitiful caricature of an army. The only real threats are the Company of the Cat and the Ghiscari legions. And Barristan's troops should be able to put them down without actually needing the help of the Windblown or the Second Sons (although their help will ensure that the Yunkishmen are defeated much more quickly, and much more decisively).

Whether it is something Tyrion does politically, or otherwise, it will be something he does, has done, or will still do. No matter what it is that he does. Seems kind of obvious, if you ask me.

The Widow seems to be in contact with Benerro. And since she immediately knew who the dwarf at her table was, I'm guessing that Benerro told her he would come to her.. eventually.

Benerro and Moqorro are about the prophecy, the Widow about ending slavery in Volantis. Daenerys's cause (as it was at the time, at least) is directly related to what the Widow seems to want. 

 

The situation of numbers of the troops around Meereen at the moment isn't that well in my memory anymore. But it's the cyvasse symbolism that did it for me. Because it's from a sample chapter, I'll spoiler tag it.

In the second (?) Tyrion chapter, we get Tyrion in Brown Ben Plumm's tent. Tyrion has spend the entire previous chapter (according to notes taken by people at conventions where the chapter was read) trying to convince Plumm to join Meereen, and abandon Yunkai. Plumm, here, is considering it, and when the order arrives to go and guard the trebuchets, the messenger from Yunkai is killed in response.

Now, observing the cyvasse games, and the colours of the pieces that go along with it (black and white), black symbolises a win, and white a loss. Doran Martell, in The Princess in the Tower has the objective of getting Arianne on his side, to convince Myrcella to lie to Ser Balon Swann, as to keep Dorne out of war for a little while longer. Meanwhile, Arianne wants to know who betrayed her, as her original purpose. Doran is associated with the black pieces, Arianne with the white. And as such, Doran gets what he wants (Arianne helps him with Myrcella), and Arianne doesn't (she never learns who betrayed her). Or Tyrion's game against Qavo Nogarys. Tyrion is supposed to lose from him in the actual game, but it's the underlying meaning that symbolises the loss for Tyrion and his side.. The confirmation that Daenerys has not yet started the march towards Volantis, and is not going to do so any time soon, being at war with the slaver cities. 

Thus so, in the second Tyrion sample chapter of Winds, the messenger from Yunkai is killed, and dying, he knocks over a cyvasse board that had been standing there. He knocks it over, and the pieces roll over the floor... Tyrion eventually picks up the white dragon, which is covered in the blood of the Yunkish messenger. The dragon is the most powerful piece of the game, and with white symbolizing a loss - strategically if not literally - this loss seems to be connected to the "most powerful piece" that Yunkai has at that moment..

It is the Yunkish man who connects to this white cyvasse piece. He knocks it over, and it is his blood all over it. So if Yunkai is to lose, due to the loss of what is their most powerful piece available at the time, what might happen? The sellswords are supposed to protect the trebuchets, and trebuchets are what could potentially take the dragons out of the air. At the time, one of the trebuchets is already down, and Barristan is advancing on another. If the Second Sons turn, there will only be one out of four free companies left - the Windblown have gone over, the Long Lances have been defeated - which won't do much good for the spirit of the Company of the Cat. But perhaps even more importantly, they will go into battle, to the trebuchet currently heavily guarded, while everyone believes they are still on Yunkai's side - while they are not, which could easily lead to an attack on the two legions of Ghis and the Company of the Cat who are guarding the Harpy's Daughter at the moment, and, combined with Barristans men, and the fact that Yunkai will be confused by the arrival of the Ironborn, could be what causes the second trebuchet to fall.. Losing (either by defeat, or by scattering) so many men, plus a trebuchet, can turn this battle around, and make Yunkai lose, at least this time... That doesn't mean Yunkai will definitly lose from Meereen in the end, but at least this time, there is potential.

 

I might be wrong about the way the battle turns out, but a loss for Yunkai involving their "most powerful piece" seems heavily implied at the moment, and Tyrion, one way or another, is involved.

 

2. Varys/Illyrio and Tyrion: Varys liked how Tyrion played the game, yes, but he also ensured that he'll never be able to play the game this way. He helped to ruin his reputation in Westeros, after all. The idea that Tyrion would be a good player in foreign lands where he doesn't know the people makes little sense, meaning that Tyrion's abilities/knowledge in the political field would only be of use when Aegon/Dany invaded Westeros, not before. But his use would be very limited there. Varys himself is at Aegon's service, and he is a much better player than Tyrion will ever be. If Varys wanted an ideal Hand for Aegon/Dany why not choose himself? Varys may be a eunuch, but his own reputation should be much better still than Tyrion's after the kingslayer and kinslayer thing. Not to mention that Illyrio, Connington, or Haldon are also up to the task. If George wanted to sell us the idea that Varys and Illyrio need Tyrion because of his political skills he should not have introduced Connington or Haldon (and certainly not Varys and Illyrio themselves, at least not as people who are likely to join Aegon/Dany in their new Westerosi court).

I'd agree that it is likely that Connington might have told Tyrion about Aegon before their meeting with Daenerys, but there is no reason to believe that Connington would necessarily have allowed Tyrion to be present when he first presented Aegon to Daenerys. Nor is there any reason to believe that Dany would have been keen to trust an ugly dwarf named Lannister over an old friend of Rhaegar's who also happens to be a close friend of Illyrio's.

In the dragonlore department Tyrion is as restricted to the books Illyrio gave him and the ones he once read and what he still remembers as anyone else. There is no reason to believe that Tyrion Lannister ever read the really important dragonlore books. In fact, ADwD greatly suggests that he knows where really great stuff might be found, but never laid an eye on them himself. Therefore his use is greatly limited. And we have to keep in mind that Tyrion read all his dragonlore books in a time when the dragons were all dead. Tyrion read those books out of his general curiosity, not because he researched certain topics on dragonlore like dragonbreeding or dragonbonding.

The idea that good books about dragonlore are only to be found in Westeros or Valyria makes no sense. Good knowledge about dragonlore in Westeros would have come there with the Targaryens, and they would have brought it with them from Valyria. In light of the fact that the rulers of Lys and Volantis are effectively dragonlords without dragons (i.e. cadet branches who for whatever reason did not get any dragons) there is really no reason to believe that there is no good knowledge on dragons to be found in Volantis or Lys. The greatest Westerosi authority on dragons seems to have been Septon Barth, and what Yandel tells us seems to suggests that most of his knowledge came from conclusions or speculations he did on the basis of older literature he read and things he observed. That would include Valyrian dragonlore.

Cersei's children: Tyrion has no proof that Cersei's children aren't Robert's. All he can do is claim that this is the case, but in light of the fact that he has murdered Joffrey and his own father and is in the company of people who want to overthrow the children of King Robert, he would be of no good use. Not to mention that it does not really matter to Aegon/Dany who fathered Cersei's children. They have to go in any case, and since Stannis has claimed they are bastards Dany and Aegon could just repeat that accusation themselves if they wanted to.

Of course they don't want to use Tyrion for essosi politics. That was never their plan. Tyrion was supposed to go to Aegon, first and foremost, and meet Daenerys in Volantis, where his fate would be decided. From Volantis, they were supposed to turn to Westeros with or without Tyrion. Tyrion was never supposed to go to Slaver's Bay, in Illyrio and Varys's plan.

 

Nor would it matter if Tyrion would be allowed to be present when Aegon and Daenerys are introduced. He'll be introduced to her at some point anyway, and when he does, he can bring doubt into her mind about Aegon if he choses to do so. Daenerys is allowed to change her mind, after all.

 

Illyrio and Varys need a way to smooth things over. Why would Daenerys trust Connington? He is said to have died years ago, after all, and of Aegons survival, no one ever spoke a word (including Illyrio, in whose house she lived for more than half a year)... What proof does she have that Connington is even working for Illyrio? Tyrion could provide that link, having seen the interaction between the two.

Trusting Illyrio is another thing, for which Tyrion might be less suitable. If Illyrio has been helping Aegon all these years, why keep this from Daenerys and Viserys while they are staying at his mansion? Why promise Viserys aid in winning the throne, if that was clearly not their intend? Nor is Varys ever spoken of favorably in front of Daenerys..

The idea that Daenerys would simply accept Aegon, and thus Illyrio and Varys's plans, is a bit odd. They would need some way to win Daenerys's trust. And perhaps, part of the reason Tyrion was send to her was just that.

 

As to the dragonlore.. Never would I say that is the main reason. But it should not be assumed that dragonlore can be found all over Essos, and will easily be made available for whichever noble wants read it. Nor will anyone who owns such books, I think, allow for those books to actually leave their location.

In addition, there was no thought of needing dragonlore until the news of Dany's dragons broke.. somewhere mid 299 AC. We find ourselves in mid 300 AC right now, and what goes faster? Reading tons of books while you have a thousand other things to do, not knowing in which book the usefull info can be found? Or making a person who had already read stuff about dragons write down whatever he thinks might be important?

Reading all the important lore can come after the wars are actually done.

 

4. Varys is good at figuring stuff out. He was Master of Whisperers for a few years while Tywin still served as Hand, and his little birds would have overheard every private conversation within the Tower of the Hand. Not to mention that they and Varys had access to Tywin's solar and apartments. It is, of course, possible that Tywin never again spoke about his feelings for Joanna and Tyrion after the former's death, but somehow I don't think that's the case. Especially not if he blamed Aerys for her untimely end or had still unresolved issues with the Aerys-Joanna affair after all those years (and the latter can not really be dismissed easily in light of the fact that the affair as such has been confirmed).

But even if this wasn't the case - Varys had the ear of the king, and Aerys apparently trusted him. It is no stretch to assume that Aerys II himself told or hinted at the fact that he was Tyrion's father when he talked to Varys.

As to the dragonrider thing: They sent their blue-haired lad off to Volantis, too, to meet his future queen. If the life of their golden boy can be risked, then there is no reason to believe they would not risk the life of Tyrion.

That qould (1) require Tywin to actually speak out loud about something he apparently never told anyone, and (2) mean that Varys and Illyrio would willingly and knowingly introduce a rival for Aegon... 

Nor does Tyrion's reputation help, kin- and kingslayer. No dragon can fix that.

 

But most importantly, transporting Tyrion across the narrow sea was a last minute addition... Before the outcome of the trial, they could not have planned such a thing. And after the trial, only days pass until his escape. Nor does he remain with Illyrio for long. His joining Aegon's group was simply making the best use of him in short notice when the oppertunity presented itself..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rhaenys,

Benerro: His agenda mainly seems to be about the slavery issue as well, or to exploit Daenerys for the use of his church/faith. If you check his preachings his view of the prophecy isn't very specific. Dany fighting against darkness and anyone dying in her service will be reborn. That could mean pretty much anything. Nothing suggests that he actually cares about Westeros and the (potential) true meaning of the prophecy.

While nothing is confirmed yet I'm not going to buy stuff about cyvasse symbolism, especially not proclaiming that one color has to symbolize losing a battle or war. It is certainly not impossible that Tyrion's sole purpose for the Volantene gang is to get the Second Sons back on Dany's side, but we have no way of knowing that. Prophecy can transcend the scope of the sample chapters, after all. And I personally don't think it makes sense to assume that Tyrion is crucial for the coming battle. Brown Ben switched sides when the dragons were effectively neutralized as a weapon early on in ADwD. Daznak's Pit and its aftermath changed things again, as did the coming of the Ironborn and the eventual betrayal of the Windblown. Once that begins, Brown Ben would turn his cloak again. The man doesn't need Tyrion to point things out to him - he is a cautious man himself.

The trebuchets aren't crucial weapons to win the battle, and neither are the dragons. The chance that a trebuchet would shoot down such small dragons are very low. It would be a very lucky shot. Especially in light of the fact that those weapons are used to attack Meereen. For Selmy it is important to destroy them to protect the city, but they won't have any impact on the fighting outside the walls.

I'd be very surprised if it turned out that Tyrion's main use for the prophecy/visions Benerro/Moqorro are aware is just connected to the coming battles.

Tyrion/Aegon/Dany: I'm actually very surprised that you actually think Daenerys would listen to a man like Tyrion. Tyrion's own thoughts make it very obvious that he doesn't exactly look forward to his meeting with Daenerys, and outright fears she might kill him. Why do you consider it likely that she would listen to a word he says?

The plan was to make a deal with Daenerys. Marry Aegon and exchange win the ten thousand swords of the Golden Company after she had made her way to Volantis. She wouldn't have been able to refuse even if she knew for a fact that Aegon was not Rhaegar's son. Under those circumstances she would even have married a Blackfyre pretender. And after a marriage Dany would not have been able to change her mind...

Tyrion could have contributed nothing to help Connington to convince Dany. If she mistrusts Connington, why the hell would she trust Tyrion? Because he murdered Joffrey and his own father? Because his father and brother murdered her father and the children of her brother?

ADwD shows that Dany still trusts Illyrio and considers him her friend - and we know that the officers of the Golden Company believe they would have joined Viserys and the Dothraki, so there is little reason for Dany to really mistrust all those people. After all, she also did accept the need for secrecy in the case of Doran's marriage pact with Willem Darry. And she actually has no proof that Viserys wasn't informed about all that - after all, who is to say that he just did not inform her? But the core thing in such a scenario would have been that Dany would have needed the Golden Company and gladly accepted their help in her planned conquest.

Dragonlore: Illyrio gave Tyrion some books. Clearly he had been buying/looking for stuff since he learned about the hatching of the eggs. There is no reason to believe that a man who can bribe a triarch of Volantis cannot also buy books. Books may be valuable, but bribing Volantene nobility should be much more difficult than buying books on dragonlore, especially if you also have the coin to simply make a copy.

Tywin-Aerys: We don't know if Tywin did not talk to anyone about the Joanna-Aerys issue, nor do we know whether he talked to his doubts about Tyrion's paternity to anyone. Kevan could have known for sure. He was supposedly Tywin's closest confidant.

Varys and Illyrio never seem to put all their eggs in one basket. They certainly did not call off their plans after Drogo died. And one wonders whether they would call off their plans if Aegon died. Somehow I don't think so. Tyrion could be a back-up plan, and he is no real danger to Aegon while he is no dragonrider and doesn't know anything about his true heritage, or is he?

Transporting Tyrion over the Narrow Sea was no last addition, but a carefully laid out plan. Or do you think there are always ships laying at anchor in KL for Varys to get people in secret to Illyrio. It is obvious that Tywin wanted to convict Tyrion - else there wouldn't have been a trial - so Varys could easily make plans. Oberyn winning the trial-by-combat could have ruined his plans, but not so much considering that the Aegon plan involved Dorne as well, Tyrion would then have ended up with Aegon/Dany in the wake of their alliance with Dorne. Not to mention that Varys could easily have abducted Tyrion even after he had been released (before he could leave for Dorne).

The whole Shae thing makes it perfectly clear that Varys manipulated events behind both the trial as well as Tyrion's rescue. Jaime believing he forced him to free Tyrion doesn't prove anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

O course the widow knew who ol' No-Nose, the little demon monkey was at first site. She deals in information, and we leran in

Mercy

that the kinslayer's infamy has spread across the sea. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lost Melnibonean

Mercy will take place several months later, though.

 

Lord Varys, either you've misunderstood parts of what I said, or I was simply unclear. If I was unclear, I apologize. Let me try again.

 

Re: Benerro/Moqorro.. Benerro is preaching about an ancient prophecy, against both slaves and freedmen. In what he says, he is just as vague as others who speak of the same prophecy

Re: the cyvasse. Well, I see it as a clear pattern, regarding the colours. How exactly Yunkai will lose, I can only guess about, with only limited information available. Tyrion might not be involved, though at the moment, I would consider some involvement on his part, as he picks up the piece, after all.

Re: Tyrion/Aegon/Dany. Why wouldn't she listen? She doesn't have to trust him, but once he's said the words, they will be on her mind, and that's all they need. Of course Tyrion isn't looking forward to meeting the woman who has every reason to loath his family. But that he fears that she'll kill him doesn't mean she'll actually kill him. I'd hope that Daenerys knows the difference between the man who did the crime, and the man who was only a young boy at the time, uninvolved in any of it.

I'm surprised that you believe Daenerys would be willing to marry Aegon even if she was fully aware that he was a Blackfyre pretender. Daenerys's claim doesn't depend on Aegon, whereas his claim depends quite a bit on her, now that she has dragons. And Daenerys has the bigger army, as well as dragons. For her, the necessity of marrying Aegon, especially if she heavily suspects him to be fake, and even more so if she knows he's fake,  is not there.

 

Oh, I agree that transporting Tyrion was already the plan before Jaime showed up in Varys's chambers. But that plan could only have come to be after Tyrion's trial ended, and as I said, there were only days after Tyrion's trial had ended, until the escape. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

R_T, Band's of annabe lords were already lopping heads off dwarves in Essos, hoping to win the favor of the queen in Westeros. The widow knew. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

R_T, Band's of annabe lords were already lopping heads off dwarves in Essos, hoping to win the favor of the queen in Westeros. The widow knew. 

Oh, I know that Tywin's death and the manner of it have spread across the sea (I was simply pointing out that the chapter you were referring to takes places multiple months later).

A detailed description of Tyrion, however, might not have spread across the sea, however, considering all of the heads Cersei receives with a nose. The Widow recognizes Tyrion immediately, so she would have needed to have received a detailed description of him at some point. Would she put all her trust on stories spread by sailors? Or did she perhaps get her description of Tyrion from someone who she might consider more trustworthy?

Because the Widow also knew the ship would never reach its intended destination. And she knew, because Benerro told her. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lost Melnibonean

 

Hidden Content

 

Lord Varys, either you've misunderstood parts of what I said, or I was simply unclear. If I was unclear, I apologize. Let me try again.

 

Re: Benerro/Moqorro.. Benerro is preaching about an ancient prophecy, against both slaves and freedmen. In what he says, he is just as vague as others who speak of the same prophecy

Re: the cyvasse. Well, I see it as a clear pattern, regarding the colours. How exactly Yunkai will lose, I can only guess about, with only limited information available. Tyrion might not be involved, though at the moment, I would consider some involvement on his part, as he picks up the piece, after all.

Re: Tyrion/Aegon/Dany. Why wouldn't she listen? She doesn't have to trust him, but once he's said the words, they will be on her mind, and that's all they need. Of course Tyrion isn't looking forward to meeting the woman who has every reason to loath his family. But that he fears that she'll kill him doesn't mean she'll actually kill him. I'd hope that Daenerys knows the difference between the man who did the crime, and the man who was only a young boy at the time, uninvolved in any of it.

I'm surprised that you believe Daenerys would be willing to marry Aegon even if she was fully aware that he was a Blackfyre pretender. Daenerys's claim doesn't depend on Aegon, whereas his claim depends quite a bit on her, now that she has dragons. And Daenerys has the bigger army, as well as dragons. For her, the necessity of marrying Aegon, especially if she heavily suspects him to be fake, and even more so if she knows he's fake,  is not there.

 

Oh, I agree that transporting Tyrion was already the plan before Jaime showed up in Varys's chambers. But that plan could only have come to be after Tyrion's trial ended, and as I said, there were only days after Tyrion's trial had ended, until the escape. 

Rhaenys,

my point in relation to Benerro is that he has his own agenda in which Dany may be nothing but a pawn. He does not seem to understand about the true purpose/destiny of the savior which should be connected to the Others. Mel didn't understand that as well until she came to the Wall, and she still doesn't understand it fully as she sees the Others just through the lenses of her faith as she does everyone and everything else. That will not necessarily help to understand what's actually going on.

Cyvasse: Well, I don't think much about that, but I don't think we can assume that George attributes losing and winning sides to the two colors of the pieces. Why should he do that? Doran using the black dragon could easily be foreshadowing Dorne's eventual union with the Blackfyres if Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son. After all, Arianne is not going to marry Daenerys who definitely is a Red Dragon, and Quentyn, the one who was sent to make a deal with the Red Dragon, is dead.

And to me the bloody white dragon piece is a hint that Tyrion will mount the white dragon, Viserion, not something about the outcome of the battle. There is really no need to foreshadow the outcome of that in light of the fact that George decided to portray the Yunkish leaders as a bunch of morons, and their so-called armies as outright jokes.

Tyrion/Dany: I'm not sure why Dany should even want to hear the words of a man who has murdered his own father. Daenerys is in the game to avenge her family, Tyrion has (supposedly) killed two members of his own family. Dany may have profited from that (or not, that remains to be seen) but that in itself doesn't mean anything. A man capable of murdering his own family is scarcely trustworthy. In fact, the whole scenario of Dany actually listening or accepting a man who stands accused of the crimes Tyrion did is very unlikely. She is not the type of person to go along with those things. Look how she treated Jorah who actually saved her life in the end.

Aegon-Dany: Aegon would have had the upper hand if Dany had gone to Volantis overland as Varys and Illyrio thought she would. The Demon Road would have taken its toll, and many of her people would have died. The only army she would have had would have been the Unsullied since the Second Sons most likely wouldn't have accompanied her west on that road, and perhaps not even the Stormcrows.

It could easily have been 4,000 Unsullied against the Golden Company, and it would have been pretty clear on whose side Volantis would have been in such a struggle (Aegon's/the Golden Company's due to the fact that Illyrio is bribing the triarch(s)). Aegon's claim as a Targaryen would depend on Dany, his claim as a Blackfyre would not - but in any case, he would have the Golden Company, and Dany would have been in need of any man she could need in preparation for her own invasion in such a scenario.

And why not take a Blackfyre consort? A dragon is still a dragon regardless of the color, and he would have been an exile as much as Dany herself.

As to Varys' Tyrion plan: I think there are hints that he planned to recruit him to his cause as early as ACoK, and he certainly had a plan how to accomplish that during ASoS - most likely by using Shae in some fashion. It would not have come up only with the trial. In fact, if Joff hadn't been killed Varys would have found some other way to drive a wedge between Tyrion and Tywin.

Didn't the Widow only recognize Tyrion after he began talking?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cyvasse: Well, I don't think much about that, but I don't think we can assume that George attributes losing and winning sides to the two colors of the pieces. Why should he do that? Doran using the black dragon could easily be foreshadowing Dorne's eventual union with the Blackfyres if Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son. After all, Arianne is not going to marry Daenerys who definitely is a Red Dragon, and Quentyn, the one who was sent to make a deal with the Red Dragon, is dead.

And to me the bloody white dragon piece is a hint that Tyrion will mount the white dragon, Viserion, not something about the outcome of the battle. There is really no need to foreshadow the outcome of that in light of the fact that George decided to portray the Yunkish leaders as a bunch of morons, and their so-called armies as outright jokes.

It is entirely possible there is more than one layer of meaning to the colour of the cyvasse pieces. But in total, Tyrion plays his cyvasse games with both a black dragon and a white, in respective games. So why would him picking up a dragon piece he didn't knock on the ground nor was playing with, with another man's blood on it, suddenly indicate that he'll ride Viserion?

 

As to the Blackfyre interpretation. I've seen that one before. But tell me, how should supporting a Targaryen in that light be symbolized? The cyvasse pieces are black and white, in the standard games. Not black and red.

 

 

Aegon-Dany: Aegon would have had the upper hand if Dany had gone to Volantis overland as Varys and Illyrio thought she would. The Demon Road would have taken its toll, and many of her people would have died. The only army she would have had would have been the Unsullied since the Second Sons most likely wouldn't have accompanied her west on that road, and perhaps not even the Stormcrows.

It could easily have been 4,000 Unsullied against the Golden Company, and it would have been pretty clear on whose side Volantis would have been in such a struggle (Aegon's/the Golden Company's due to the fact that Illyrio is bribing the triarch(s)). Aegon's claim as a Targaryen would depend on Dany, his claim as a Blackfyre would not - but in any case, he would have the Golden Company, and Dany would have been in need of any man she could need in preparation for her own invasion in such a scenario.

And why not take a Blackfyre consort? A dragon is still a dragon regardless of the color, and he would have been an exile as much as Dany herself.

Daenerys could both have marched the road, or gone by sea, as far as anyone was concerned. And she had the bigger army. You can go and make guesses about who would abandon her and how many would die, but this is a hypothetical scenario of which we can only with certainty state the numbers as they were at the start.

And Daenerys, should she have left Meereen for Volantis, would have had the higher numbers.

Nor is it certain that the Golden Company would have followed Aegon if Daenerys declared him a traitor or pretender. Daenerys's blood was unquestioned, and these sellswords want to go home. How would it look in Westeros that the boy who claims to be a prince they all believed to be dead tries to claim the throne only after killing the only other Targaryen claimant? It would not look good.

Nor do I think it is that certain that Volantis would support Aegon. Sure, the nobility would, should Daenerys declare war on him. But the nobility make up such a small part of the city. The majority are slaves (5 for every freedman), and most believe in R'hllor. A big part of both the slaves, as well as supporters of R'hllor (which overlaps greatly) are likely to support Daenerys, and there's little the nobility of Volantis would be able to do about it.

Why not take a Blackfyre consort? Because he lied and deceived by trying to convince her he's a Targaryen first.

 

Tyrion/Dany: I'm not sure why Dany should even want to hear the words of a man who has murdered his own father. Daenerys is in the game to avenge her family, Tyrion has (supposedly) killed two members of his own family. Dany may have profited from that (or not, that remains to be seen) but that in itself doesn't mean anything. A man capable of murdering his own family is scarcely trustworthy. In fact, the whole scenario of Dany actually listening or accepting a man who stands accused of the crimes Tyrion did is very unlikely. She is not the type of person to go along with those things. Look how she treated Jorah who actually saved her life in the end.

This seems kind of contradicting what you think Illyrio/Varys's plan was, if I understood you correctly. You believe they send Tyrion along as a 'spare dragonrider', but also believe Dany is likely to kill him, or at least imprison him. How does that bring him any closer to riding a dragon?

Illyrio at least believed Daenerys would be receptive of Tyrion, if he went with Connington. It's either that, or Illyrio knowingly send Tyrion to his death, which would go against your theory.

 

Didn't the Widow only recognize Tyrion after he began talking?

No. He starts talking only after she reveals she knows very well who he is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a reprint from the 2015 polls results thread (here is the link) regarding A+J=T, which I will put in a spoiler box just to keep this post from getting too long on screen:

2. Aerys II Targaryen + Joanna Lannister = Tyrion

Roughly 2/3 of all respondents think that Tyrion is *not** the son of Aerys II. However, this question shows some moderate variance among fan communities.*

While it varies a bit by forum, roughly 2 to 1, people do not think Aerys is the biological father of Tyrion. Even worse, other than Reddit, fewer people on Westeros.org believe the theory than other forums. I feel like a failure. What really frustrates me is that most of the otyher poll results (on the other issues that were polled) are fairly consistent with my thinking -- for the most part -- other than this theory. There are links in that thread to additional issues being polled on the different sites -- and for the most part I think the majority maintain the same theories as I do.

Which gets me to ask whether there is something different about this theory than other theories -- and I think maybe there is. Here is another poll result buried in one of the links from that thread regarding dragon riders (which I also will put in a spoiler box for space-constraints purposes):

12. Who will be a dragonrider by the end of the series?

PositionRedditASOIAF UniversityWesteros.org
Jon Snow4307 (58%)1196 (76%)112 (63%)
Bran Stark1417 (19%)322 (20%)39 (22%)
Tyrion Lannister3865 (52%)936 (59%)91 (51%)
Victarion Greyjoy518 (7%)77 (5%)15 (8%)
Aegon VI Targaryen1381 (18%)217 (14%)36 (20%)
Arya Stark248 (3%)132 (8%)10 (6%)
Euron Greyjoy511 (7%)47 (3%)12 (7%)
Sansa Stark114 (2%)64 (4%)1 (1%)
Rickon Stark98 (1%)19 (1%)2 (1%)
Jaime Lannister161 (2%)29 (2%)3 (2%)
Don't Know/No Opinion1015 (14%)177 (11%)30 (17%)
Other186 (3%)49 (3%)11 (6%)
 

As can be seen, a majority think that Tyrion will ride a dragon -- so close to half of the people who think Tyrion will ride a dragon apparently do not think that mean he has Targ blood. How exactly do they think that is going to work? How is Tyrion able to bond with a dragon without having Targ blood? The belief that Tyrion can ride a dragon without Targ blood almost amazes me more than how few people have come around on A+J=T (especially after TWOIAF clues).

So what do I think is going on here?

I think two things are going on (with a third relevant to many of the "opinion makers" in the forums).

1. Too many Targs. I think that many people are a bit tired of the many hidden identities in the books. Everywhere the reader "turns around" there seems to be another new Targ popping up -- Maester Aemon, Bloodraven, Aegon VI (whether fake or real). Many readers seem to have the view that GRRM has gone for secret Targs too much already -- we have already concluded that Jon almost certainly is a hidden Targ -- so Tyrion cannot also be a hidden Targ. Of course, Aemon, Bloodraven and Aegon are total different because they were only hidden from the readers for a time -- they themselves have always "known" who they are (with the likely exception of Aegon who thinks he is a Targ but is more likely a Blackfyre and/or Brightflame descendant, which still makes him a Targ of sorts but just different than the kind of Targ he thinks he is). Jon does not know he is a Targ. And GRRM has laid the groundwork for there being two "hidden" Targs with the three heads of the dragon prophecy with Dany being the only realistic candidate as one of the heads -- there must be TWO more. Nevertheless, people seem reluctant to accept that GRRM will have another person who does not know he is a Targ really be a Targ.

2. Tywin/Tyrion relationship. This issue seems to be the biggest problem for many readers. It seems that for many readers, what makes that relationship interesting is the notion that a father can come to treat his own son with such cruelty -- that solely for being deformed and to some extent for certain personality traits (such as frequenting prostitutes more or less openly) -- Tywin could treat his son in such a manner -- with Tyrion responding accordingly -- ultimately leading to patricide. These readers don't want any sort of redemption. They don't want Tywin to have even the slightest excuse for his behavior -- that Tywin was more or less forced to raise another man's son as his own. If Tywin has such an excuse, then somehow the extreme nature of the dysfunctional relationship becomes less meaningful. And Tyrion also arguable is no longer a kinslayer (although they would still be cousins of a sort through Joanna -- but perhaps not close enough cousins to be considered kinslaying). Many people like the story the way they originally understood it and don't want those ideas forced to be revised.

3. Insider egos. For some of the "opinion makers" on the boards who have a loyal following, I think they might be stubborn having rejected the theory originally. The first A+J=T thread was started in Oct. 2012 and the theory had been suggested before then, I believe. But having come out strongly against it, I think that the mounting evidence in TWOIAF has been discounted by them because they are reluctant to admit their mistake. And without support from certain opinion makers on the board, others also will not follow.

So what is the overarching theme -- what is different about this theory than other theories? Emotion. People are not as emotionally invested in the outcome of the other theories. But for some reason, many people have strong feelings about Tyrion and Tywin as well as hidden Targs. So I think for many people, their emotions are clouding their judgment. Emotion does not really get in the way of deciding who someone thinks poisoned the locusts in Meereen. No realistic answer to that question will result in someone feeling uncomfortable or having to re-think the person's perception of important aspects of the story. Tyrion as a Targ bastard makes a lot of people unhappy -- so they convince themselves it must not be true -- despite the evidence.

OR -- maybe we are just wrong and Tyrion is not the biological son of Aerys. I have to admit that if twice as many people disagree with me as agree with me then I just might be wrong. But if I am wrong, I don't think it is about emotion. It would be about misreading the clues (I think).

So loyal A+J=T posters -- any thought?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UL,

are there really fans of other posters here? I really hope that's not the case. I just happen to like the people I can discuss with (you included) and that necessitates both an interest in debate as well as different opinions to various degrees. If not, then we are just listening to monologues (which happens to be the case in some of the topics I'm interested in ;-)).

As to the unpopularity of the theory:

I think westeros.org is sort of a special case because many posters have been with the series since the beginning or at least the early days. I'm only a pre-AFfC reader (although I only joined that board after reading AFfC in 2005) but even I was long uncomfortable with the Tyrion-Aerys idea. It just feels weird if you are accustomed with his trueborn Lannister identity and are not really expecting or looking forward to such a change for the character (quite different with Jon Snow since he is just a bastard and the whole thing is much easier to figure out).

I also happen to have realized that this whole 'bastard theme' of the story has really a tendency to latch itself on the readers. There is a tendency to internalize the fact that trueborn children are 'better' (as a concept) than illegitimate children, and one does actually not want that heroes are revealed to be not who they (and we) thought they were. Especially in Tyrion's case it is easy to see why this should not happen. Tywin would posthumously be right to reject Tyrion, perhaps even justified.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LV--

Let me clarify a bit on what I mean by "opinion makers" on the board. Certain people, over time, have built up deserved reputations as critical analysts of the books. I sometime refer to these people as the "cool kids" because they tend not to get challenged very often and have a fair number of people who like and respect them.

Complex analytical thinking can be hard for many people, and so to some extent they understandably rely on other people who make persuasive arguments to help inform their own opinions. We all engage in this behavior to some extent, I think. So if someone is inclined not to like this theory, support from other people who are generally considered to be well-informed and good at literary analysis will allow them to go with their emotional instinct. So I don't think we are just have a monologue -- but I think that some people latch on to the arguments they hear that they "like" rather than completely think for themselves in an analytical manner.

As to your thoughts regarding why people do not like the theory -- I agree with you. I think your points are an expansion of the points I was trying to make -- particularly the Tywin/Tyrion relationship issue. I think your focus on the bastard aspect also is useful to understand people's dislike of this theory.

I will admit that at this point I have put myself so out on a limb that either if I am right, I will feel super-triumphant -- but if I am wrong, I will have so much "egg on my face", I won't know what to do. What I have sworn I won't do, and I swear again, I will not go away and hide. I will come on the board and admit I was wrong and take whatever abuse I might deserve. I just hope those on the other side are as magnanimous if they have to admit being wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a reprint from the 2015 polls results thread (here is the link) regarding A+J=T, which I will put in a spoiler box just to keep this post from getting too long on screen:

Hidden Content

While it varies a bit by forum, roughly 2 to 1, people do not think Aerys is the biological father of Tyrion. Even worse, other than Reddit, fewer people on Westeros.org believe the theory than other forums. I feel like a failure. What really frustrates me is that most of the otyher poll results (on the other issues that were polled) are fairly consistent with my thinking -- for the most part -- other than this theory. There are links in that thread to additional issues being polled on the different sites -- and for the most part I think the majority maintain the same theories as I do.

Which gets me to ask whether there is something different about this theory than other theories -- and I think maybe there is. Here is another poll result buried in one of the links from that thread regarding dragon riders (which I also will put in a spoiler box for space-constraints purposes):

Hidden Content

As can be seen, a majority think that Tyrion will ride a dragon -- so close to half of the people who think Tyrion will ride a dragon apparently do not think that mean he has Targ blood. How exactly do they think that is going to work? How is Tyrion able to bond with a dragon without having Targ blood? The belief that Tyrion can ride a dragon without Targ blood almost amazes me more than how few people have come around on A+J=T (especially after TWOIAF clues).

So what do I think is going on here?

I think two things are going on (with a third relevant to many of the "opinion makers" in the forums).

1. Too many Targs. I think that many people are a bit tired of the many hidden identities in the books. Everywhere the reader "turns around" there seems to be another new Targ popping up -- Maester Aemon, Bloodraven, Aegon VI (whether fake or real). Many readers seem to have the view that GRRM has gone for secret Targs too much already -- we have already concluded that Jon almost certainly is a hidden Targ -- so Tyrion cannot also be a hidden Targ. Of course, Aemon, Bloodraven and Aegon are total different because they were only hidden from the readers for a time -- they themselves have always "known" who they are (with the likely exception of Aegon who thinks he is a Targ but is more likely a Blackfyre and/or Brightflame descendant, which still makes him a Targ of sorts but just different than the kind of Targ he thinks he is). Jon does not know he is a Targ. And GRRM has laid the groundwork for there being two "hidden" Targs with the three heads of the dragon prophecy with Dany being the only realistic candidate as one of the heads -- there must be TWO more. Nevertheless, people seem reluctant to accept that GRRM will have another person who does not know he is a Targ really be a Targ.

2. Tywin/Tyrion relationship. This issue seems to be the biggest problem for many readers. It seems that for many readers, what makes that relationship interesting is the notion that a father can come to treat his own son with such cruelty -- that solely for being deformed and to some extent for certain personality traits (such as frequenting prostitutes more or less openly) -- Tywin could treat his son in such a manner -- with Tyrion responding accordingly -- ultimately leading to patricide. These readers don't want any sort of redemption. They don't want Tywin to have even the slightest excuse for his behavior -- that Tywin was more or less forced to raise another man's son as his own. If Tywin has such an excuse, then somehow the extreme nature of the dysfunctional relationship becomes less meaningful. And Tyrion also arguable is no longer a kinslayer (although they would still be cousins of a sort through Joanna -- but perhaps not close enough cousins to be considered kinslaying). Many people like the story the way they originally understood it and don't want those ideas forced to be revised.

3. Insider egos. For some of the "opinion makers" on the boards who have a loyal following, I think they might be stubborn having rejected the theory originally. The first A+J=T thread was started in Oct. 2012 and the theory had been suggested before then, I believe. But having come out strongly against it, I think that the mounting evidence in TWOIAF has been discounted by them because they are reluctant to admit their mistake. And without support from certain opinion makers on the board, others also will not follow.

So what is the overarching theme -- what is different about this theory than other theories? Emotion. People are not as emotionally invested in the outcome of the other theories. But for some reason, many people have strong feelings about Tyrion and Tywin as well as hidden Targs. So I think for many people, their emotions are clouding their judgment. Emotion does not really get in the way of deciding who someone thinks poisoned the locusts in Meereen. No realistic answer to that question will result in someone feeling uncomfortable or having to re-think the person's perception of important aspects of the story. Tyrion as a Targ bastard makes a lot of people unhappy -- so they convince themselves it must not be true -- despite the evidence.

OR -- maybe we are just wrong and Tyrion is not the biological son of Aerys. I have to admit that if twice as many people disagree with me as agree with me then I just might be wrong. But if I am wrong, I don't think it is about emotion. It would be about misreading the clues (I think).

So loyal A+J=T posters -- any thought?

 

Very well said

I think a lot of it comes down to the opinion makers like you said, but I would call them "Theory Champions". If there is not someone to put a theory out there, and then champion it in the varied new threads (that all seem to touch on every subject regardless of original post) then it can either be ignored or at least not followed.

The more that a theory is championed, the more people start to believe it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First, this is far and away my favorite thread, and I'm very grateful to UL and the regular contributors for the discussion. It's been a great context within which to explore the books in depth.

Second, I'm not surprised to remain in the minority as a supporter. I think your point that people don't like to change their minds after expressing a strong opinion is spot on. But also, if true, the theory is very well hidden, and I wonder if George didn't take a lesson from how easily R+L=J got cracked. If not for the clues, there would have been immense resistance to R+L=J, due completely to readers' love for The Ned.

Third, to say many people don't do analysis is putting it mildly. We get a lot of pop-ups on the forum who trash the theory based on the Tywin/Tyrion relationship, or too many Targs, then they skate, and I doubt they give it another thought after that.

Fourth, more's the glory!

KING HENRY V

And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day...

Thou dost not wish more help from England, coz?

WESTMORELAND

God's will! my liege, would you and I alone,
Without more help, could fight this royal battle!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UL, Some folks just disagree. It blows me away that so many think Aegon is the son of Rhaegar. As to Tyrion being the son of Aerys, I'm not sold, but I like window shopping. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First, this is far and away my favorite thread, and I'm very grateful to UL and the regular contributors for the discussion. It's been a great context within which to explore the books in depth.

Thanks. :cheers: I have tried to be a good facilitator for this thread and have enjoyed doing it. I also agree that without you and the other regular contributors, I basically would just be talking to myself. And as fabulous company as I may be for myself ;), at some point it is nice to have an interesting conversation with others as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just read this thread and could not resist posting a link to it here.

I don't know if this post is genuine or made up. But if it is genuine, it adds to our conclusion that Tyrion as the son of Aerys really is fairly clear if people do not let their emotions get the better of them. Just wanted to make sure all the people who frequent this thread saw that post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×