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UnmaskedLurker

A+J=T v.8

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I just read this thread and could not resist posting a link to it here.

I don't know if this post is genuine or made up. But if it is genuine, it adds to our conclusion that Tyrion as the son of Aerys really is fairly clear if people do not let their emotions get the better of them. Just wanted to make sure all the people who frequent this thread saw that post.

It is funny when you read through how many people say something like "I really hope Tyrion isn't a Targ..."

It seems people would vote against because they dont like the idea rather that they dont think there is any actual foreshadowing or at least nothing that makes it impossible (ie timelines, geography etc...).

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It is funny when you read through how many people say something like "I really hope Tyrion isn't a Targ..."

It seems people would vote against because they dont like the idea rather that they dont think there is any actual foreshadowing or at least nothing that makes it impossible (ie timelines, geography etc...).

Great point. With other debates, people generally state their theory and why they think their theory is correct. With AJT, too often all a person says is something like -- I don't like that theory because it would ruin the Tywin relationship (or something like that). Perhaps that observation shows how many people are engaging in wishful thinking rather than analytical thinking regarding this particular theory, more so than other theories.

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Interesting parallel found in an old thread opened by JonCon's Red Beard (here: http://asoiaf.wester...a-cyvasse-game/)

 

JonCon's Red Beard, on 30 Sept 2014 - 12:19 AM, said:snapback.png

[Tyrion / Yollo to Aegon :] " All that mistrust will sour your stomach and keep you awake by night, 'tis true, but better that than the long sleep that does not end."

 

(...)

 

[Jon Con and Aegon :] " I like the sound of that. My army." A smile flashed across his face, then vanished. "Are they, though? They're sellswords. Yollo warned me to trust no one.

"There is wisdom in that, (...) Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary … but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful. " King Aerys was one such.

 

:cool4:

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It is entirely possible there is more than one layer of meaning to the colour of the cyvasse pieces. But in total, Tyrion plays his cyvasse games with both a black dragon and a white, in respective games. So why would him picking up a dragon piece he didn't knock on the ground nor was playing with, with another man's blood on it, suddenly indicate that he'll ride Viserion?

As to the Blackfyre interpretation. I've seen that one before. But tell me, how should supporting a Targaryen in that light be symbolized? The cyvasse pieces are black and white, in the standard games. Not black and red.

Daenerys could both have marched the road, or gone by sea, as far as anyone was concerned. And she had the bigger army. You can go and make guesses about who would abandon her and how many would die, but this is a hypothetical scenario of which we can only with certainty state the numbers as they were at the start.

And Daenerys, should she have left Meereen for Volantis, would have had the higher numbers.

Nor is it certain that the Golden Company would have followed Aegon if Daenerys declared him a traitor or pretender. Daenerys's blood was unquestioned, and these sellswords want to go home. How would it look in Westeros that the boy who claims to be a prince they all believed to be dead tries to claim the throne only after killing the only other Targaryen claimant? It would not look good.

Nor do I think it is that certain that Volantis would support Aegon. Sure, the nobility would, should Daenerys declare war on him. But the nobility make up such a small part of the city. The majority are slaves (5 for every freedman), and most believe in R'hllor. A big part of both the slaves, as well as supporters of R'hllor (which overlaps greatly) are likely to support Daenerys, and there's little the nobility of Volantis would be able to do about it.

Why not take a Blackfyre consort? Because he lied and deceived by trying to convince her he's a Targaryen first.

This seems kind of contradicting what you think Illyrio/Varys's plan was, if I understood you correctly. You believe they send Tyrion along as a 'spare dragonrider', but also believe Dany is likely to kill him, or at least imprison him. How does that bring him any closer to riding a dragon?

Illyrio at least believed Daenerys would be receptive of Tyrion, if he went with Connington. It's either that, or Illyrio knowingly send Tyrion to his death, which would go against your theory.

No. He starts talking only after she reveals she knows very well who he is.

I have to say that I didn't pay much attention to the whole cyvasse thing, but I don't see any reason to assume there is an underlying system of how cyvasse foreshadowing works (if it is used for that purpose at all). What I gather is that George uses cyvasse to get across multiple things that could very contradict each other. A very important thing there is to keep in mind that George himself was a very good chess player once, and should know that playing chess isn't exactly the same thing as playing politics. The game of thrones and cyvasse are two completely different games, and sucking in the one game doesn't mean you are good in the other and vice versa. He could still use cyvasse as a means to hint at things but it would always include the fact that it is just a game.

The bloody white dragon piece in the Tyrion chapter is important because Tyrion is the one noticing it, making the whole thing important for him and the reader. Things don't have to be systematic or completely thought through to hint at a future development. Especially in light of the fact that there is an actual white dragon out there.

Something similar is going for Doran's black dragon. There are no red cyvasse pieces, and George doesn't have to give himself the opportunity to hint at things he doesn't want to hint at (a marriage between Daenerys and Quentyn, for instance, since that's not going to happen). If he had wanted red dragon pieces he would have created them I guess.

As it happens, Dany did not have the means to go to Volantis by ship. Not after she took Meereen. The original lack of ships were the main reason why she settled there in the first place, and the reason why she did not take the demon road was because she knew her freedmen would never survive such a journey. Xaro's offer of ships only comes later when Dany no longer feels that she can abandon her people in Meereen. Varys and Illyrio expected Dany to come either by land or by ship with an assumption that the land route was more likely. They thought that the journey would take its toll on her people, not I, I just repeat what Illyrio expected. Even a sea voyage would have its dangers, Dany could easily lose as many ships a Victarion did during his voyage east. That would reduce her strength considerably just as the land route would.

In any case, let us assume that Dany had as many troops as Aegon had, or even a few hundreds or thousands more. It would still be insane to reject Aegon as her future husband and spit in the Golden Company's face. They were offering to double the troops she had. Aegon's parentage or ancestry would be secondary at best, perhaps even completely irrelevant. She married Hizdahr for political reasons, too, and Quentyn certainly would have had much better prospects if he had shown up with 10,000 soldiers as Dany herself implies.

If Dany can marry a Meereenese nobleman she neither likes nor feels attracted to she could also marry a Blackfyre pretender/descendant if that strengthened their combined chances to win the Iron Throne. The scenario I talked about was not Dany suddenly finding out that Aegon isn't her nephew but that Aegon presented himself to her as a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre in the first place, never claiming to be a Targaryen prince. That could have worked in such a situation.

Volantis would support Aegon because the Golden Company would have been at Volantis before Dany arrived there either by ship or overland. They would have had time to ensure that the triarchs would support them. With Dany not staying as queen in Meereen the whole stuff about her ending slavery/freeing slaves wouldn't have been as strong/prominent as it is in the series we read - she would just have been a traveling sellsword leader who sacked city on the way to the land she considers her birthright. I'm not sure if a Dany who is on her way to Westeros would inspire much reverence or loyalty in the people she uses as means for her own ends.

As to Tyrion: He would arrive in Volantis/at Dany's camp with Aegon, Connington, and the Golden Company. Dany would have no right to seize or execute him without Aegon's permission. He would be Aegon/Connington's man, not Dany's. Tyrion could of course try to win her favor by betraying Aegon and Connington and telling stories about them, the Golden Company, and Varys and Illyrio, but one really wonders why he would do such a thing and why he would want to endanger his own life by raising the ire of both parties. Now, if Dany did not care about him being a kingslayer and kinslayer (unlikely) and gave hints that she trusted him and would welcome him in her arms (even more unlikely) upon their first or second meeting, he might begin tell her what he suspects about Aegon if there is a chance for a private conversation. But that isn't a very likely scenario if we assume that Tyrion eventually reached Dany as a member of Aegon's entourage.

The whole 'spare dragonrider/claimant' thing is something I assume in Varys/Illyrio's mind. They might not have told that to Connington. But having a man with the Golden Company/Aegon/Dany who could become another figurehead to the Targaryen restoration movement they are heading is something they would do. Aegon's or Dany's death could technically ruin anything, but these two have planned this thing for too long to stop if fate or accident turns against them. Not to mention that it could not be stopped after the invasion has been launched even if they wanted to. If Dany/Aegon are in Westeros when they die the Golden Company and their other allies most likely will continue to fight, especially if the momentum of the war is on their side. Tyrion could then suddenly come to the fore if they reveal his true heritage. I'm not saying they necessarily wanted to make a dragonrider as soon as he reached Dany. That wouldn't work while he has no clue about his own heritage.

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I will admit that at this point I have put myself so out on a limb that either if I am right, I will feel super-triumphant -- but if I am wrong, I will have so much "egg on my face", I won't know what to do. What I have sworn I won't do, and I swear again, I will not go away and hide. I will come on the board and admit I was wrong and take whatever abuse I might deserve. I just hope those on the other side are as magnanimous if they have to admit being wrong.

Come on now, this isn't the world. If a theory is wrong it is just wrong. Nobody is going to laugh at you because a theory like that - which such good hints and sound evidence in favor it - turned out to be false. And perhaps it would even be great to be wrong because George came around with a much better story in which Tyrion is not Aerys' bastard.

I actually happen to see no such alternative right now, actually considering the idea of this revelation the best possible road/development both for Tyrion and the overall. If Tyrion is not Aerys' son/kin to Dany it will become exceedingly difficult for George to give him a prominent among the leaders of Team Dany. Everything - his looks, stature, reputation, and Lannister ancestry will make him an outsider. His wits and his dragon (if he becomes a dragonrider) could help him establish himself as a power but he'll have great difficulty inspiring loyalty in others or make any friends. Everything he did back in the first three books he accomplished with Tywin's gold, Tywin's name, and the Lannister name. His wits are really secondary in the sense that the basis for all his accomplishments was the fact that he was a Lannister and brother-in-law/uncle of the king. Now he is just an ugly dwarf with no real power base of his own. This has to change eventually, and Tyrion also has to get a real new perspective. Meeting Penny and learning to empathize with other dwarfs is well and good. He has to get a new goal in life - what the hell is Dany to him, and what the hell does he want in Westeros? Does he truly want Casterly Rock? Does he really want 'revenge'? Does he really want to kill Jaime and Cersei? What should he do with the Rock if he ever got it? The people there should hate him throughout the remainder of his life and as a kinslayer he most likely would die a painful death rather early after his takeover (he has to sleep, after all). 

We can reasonably expect that he finally pulls himself together again and becomes a more positive force considering that his whole friendship with Jon Snow most likely was a pretty big hint that he'll become a crucial figure in the fight against the Others - especially if he becomes a dragonrider, but even if that's not the case. One really wonders what could motivate Tyrion to consider the saving of Westeros his responsibility. If he has a dragon he could literally fly anywhere, and live out his life in the far south where the Others most likely would never come during his lifetime.

If Dany and Tyrion find out they are siblings that never knew anything about each other that could shape a unique new bond. Tyrion could find his way back to life through his bond to Dany, and he could decide/realize that it would feel good, perhaps even great, to take up her cause as his own, working together. Tyrion the evil kinslayer has pretty much no realistic chance to get emotionally close to Dany and/or invested in anything she does or attempts to do.

But George has to continue to surprise people, after all, and I guess nobody foresaw Stannis going to the Wall back when ACoK ended or the Faith becoming a military/political power back when ASoS ended.

As I continue to say in some of the more heated discussion - keep an open mind and juggle with different possibilities and plotlines in your head when you think about the future of the books. That is more fun and doesn't glue yourself to a specific scenario (e.g. the many possibilities how Tyrion could have been conceived - violent rape, Tywin knowing/not knowing about it, 'soft rape' (the king commanding that Joanna share his bed against her will - with or without Tywin being aware of that), Aerys seducing Joanna with or without Tywin's knowledge, Joanna seducing Aerys etc.).

That is also the reason why I really don't care whether Aegon is Rhaegar's son or not. Both would be interesting stories. The only thing I'm sure of is that he is not the savior.

If you do this too much you can become somewhat disappointed by the stuff that actually happens because it is too simple. But then, five years after the last book theories usually gain a life of their own. The 'Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory' didn't survive ADwD, just as the theory about the conspiracy of the Lords of the North most likely won't survive TWoW. 

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LV-- 

If I have time, I am finally going to write an addition to the OP on what the importance of Tyrion as Targ bastard might mean to the story -- i.e., why would GRRM bother (it is not for the "shock value" alone -- it needs to be important to the story). I assume you are ok if I "steal" some of the analysis you just wrote. It includes some arguments I have never quite been able to articulate before and would like to include if and when I write that new section.

Please let me know.

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(...)

If Dany and Tyrion find out they are siblings that never knew anything about each other that could shape a unique new bond. Tyrion could find his way back to life through his bond to Dany, and he could decide/realize that it would feel good, perhaps even great, to take up her cause as his own, working together. Tyrion the evil kinslayer has pretty much no realistic chance to get emotionally close to Dany and/or invested in anything she does or attempts to do.

(...)

Compare to :

aCoK - Dany I

The cream-and-gold I call Viserion. Viserys was cruel and weak and frightened, yet he was my brother still. His dragon will do what he could not."

 

And to the scene in the TV show when Dany and Tyrion discuss their "two terrible fathers" and Dany's will to "break the wheel".

latest?cb=20150603021757

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Interesting parallel found in an old thread opened by JonCon's Red Beard (here: http://asoiaf.wester...a-cyvasse-game/)

 

JonCon's Red Beard, on 30 Sept 2014 - 12:19 AM, said:snapback.png

 

:cool4:

Cool - that's like when Jaime says to Brienne:

“Did you know that my brother set the Blackwater Rush afire? Wildfire will burn on water. Aerys would have bathed in it if he’d dared. The Targaryens were all mad for fire.”

except not in the same place. I've thought that it would be interesting to search for instances of 'Tyrion' and 'Aerys' when they are mentioned close together, but that wouldn't work for your quote. I wonder how a philologist would approach the problem.

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I have to say that I didn't pay much attention to the whole cyvasse thing, but I don't see any reason to assume there is an underlying system of how cyvasse foreshadowing works (if it is used for that purpose at all). What I gather is that George uses cyvasse to get across multiple things that could very contradict each other. A very important thing there is to keep in mind that George himself was a very good chess player once, and should know that playing chess isn't exactly the same thing as playing politics. The game of thrones and cyvasse are two completely different games, and sucking in the one game doesn't mean you are good in the other and vice versa. He could still use cyvasse as a means to hint at things but it would always include the fact that it is just a game.

The bloody white dragon piece in the Tyrion chapter is important because Tyrion is the one noticing it, making the whole thing important for him and the reader. Things don't have to be systematic or completely thought through to hint at a future development. Especially in light of the fact that there is an actual white dragon out there.

Something similar is going for Doran's black dragon. There are no red cyvasse pieces, and George doesn't have to give himself the opportunity to hint at things he doesn't want to hint at (a marriage between Daenerys and Quentyn, for instance, since that's not going to happen). If he had wanted red dragon pieces he would have created them I guess.

I wrote an analysis on the cyvasse symbolism. It's in my signature, if you're interested. The symbolism subscribed to each specific peace (horse, elephant, etc.) is more vague, and there is somewhat more guessing involved, but the pattern in the colours does seem to be there, clearly.

That doesn't mean there can't be an additional layer of meaning to the colours, but the one I mentioned, I feel rather certain about.

 

As it happens, Dany did not have the means to go to Volantis by ship. Not after she took Meereen. The original lack of ships were the main reason why she settled there in the first place, and the reason why she did not take the demon road was because she knew her freedmen would never survive such a journey. Xaro's offer of ships only comes later when Dany no longer feels that she can abandon her people in Meereen. Varys and Illyrio expected Dany to come either by land or by ship with an assumption that the land route was more likely. They thought that the journey would take its toll on her people, not I, I just repeat what Illyrio expected. Even a sea voyage would have its dangers, Dany could easily lose as many ships a Victarion did during his voyage east. That would reduce her strength considerably just as the land route would.

In any case, let us assume that Dany had as many troops as Aegon had, or even a few hundreds or thousands more. It would still be insane to reject Aegon as her future husband and spit in the Golden Company's face. They were offering to double the troops she had. Aegon's parentage or ancestry would be secondary at best, perhaps even completely irrelevant. She married Hizdahr for political reasons, too, and Quentyn certainly would have had much better prospects if he had shown up with 10,000 soldiers as Dany herself implies.

If Dany can marry a Meereenese nobleman she neither likes nor feels attracted to she could also marry a Blackfyre pretender/descendant if that strengthened their combined chances to win the Iron Throne. The scenario I talked about was not Dany suddenly finding out that Aegon isn't her nephew but that Aegon presented himself to her as a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre in the first place, never claiming to be a Targaryen prince. That could have worked in such a situation.

But that is not the scenario that was ever the plan in the book. Young Griff was going to present himself as Rhaegar's son, because he believes he's Rhaegar's son, whether that actually is the case or not. The scenario you are talking about, was never even on the table.

 

Volantis would support Aegon because the Golden Company would have been at Volantis before Dany arrived there either by ship or overland. They would have had time to ensure that the triarchs would support them. With Dany not staying as queen in Meereen the whole stuff about her ending slavery/freeing slaves wouldn't have been as strong/prominent as it is in the series we read - she would just have been a traveling sellsword leader who sacked city on the way to the land she considers her birthright. I'm not sure if a Dany who is on her way to Westeros would inspire much reverence or loyalty in the people she uses as means for her own ends.

The triarchs can decide to support Aegon, but the slaves make up the majority of the city, and most of them would support Dany, should she show up. A commander might command his man to fight, but that doesn't mean his men will actually enter the battle.

Dany was freeing slaves in Astapor, in Yunkai, and in Meereen. Even if she would have immediately begun a travel west, she would need to pass Volantis, and considering all the freeing of slaves she has done in the weeks and months before, Volantis will be counting on Dany to do the same once she arrives. She was already Mysha when she arrived at Meereen, before she declared her intent to stay. With more than 80% of the population of the city made up of slaves, the nobility would have much to fear. 

 

As to Tyrion: He would arrive in Volantis/at Dany's camp with Aegon, Connington, and the Golden Company. Dany would have no right to seize or execute him without Aegon's permission. He would be Aegon/Connington's man, not Dany's. Tyrion could of course try to win her favor by betraying Aegon and Connington and telling stories about them, the Golden Company, and Varys and Illyrio, but one really wonders why he would do such a thing and why he would want to endanger his own life by raising the ire of both parties. Now, if Dany did not care about him being a kingslayer and kinslayer (unlikely) and gave hints that she trusted him and would welcome him in her arms (even more unlikely) upon their first or second meeting, he might begin tell her what he suspects about Aegon if there is a chance for a private conversation. But that isn't a very likely scenario if we assume that Tyrion eventually reached Dany as a member of Aegon's entourage.

The whole 'spare dragonrider/claimant' thing is something I assume in Varys/Illyrio's mind. They might not have told that to Connington. But having a man with the Golden Company/Aegon/Dany who could become another figurehead to the Targaryen restoration movement they are heading is something they would do. Aegon's or Dany's death could technically ruin anything, but these two have planned this thing for too long to stop if fate or accident turns against them. Not to mention that it could not be stopped after the invasion has been launched even if they wanted to. If Dany/Aegon are in Westeros when they die the Golden Company and their other allies most likely will continue to fight, especially if the momentum of the war is on their side. Tyrion could then suddenly come to the fore if they reveal his true heritage. I'm not saying they necessarily wanted to make a dragonrider as soon as he reached Dany. That wouldn't work while he has no clue about his own heritage.

If you want to wed a queen who holds the only three dragons in the world, you do as she asks. If she asks to see the Lannister you hold amongst your men, you give her the man she wishes to see.

And how likely do you consider it, really, that anyone would be willing to support Tyrion as a claimant? Lannister, kinslayer, kingslayer... his popularity is very, very low, and acquiring a dragon won't change that.

Nor would it require sending him with Aegon to Daenerys. It would have been easier to send him to Aegon and Daenerys after they landed in Westeros, and he could travel there together with Illyrio.

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LV--

Thanks -- I hope I have time to do it (although that would mean work is slow which actually would not be such a good thing -- oh well, take the good -- take the bad).

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Great point. With other debates, people generally state their theory and why they think their theory is correct. With AJT, too often all a person says is something like -- I don't like that theory because it would ruin the Tywin relationship (or something like that). Perhaps that observation shows how many people are engaging in wishful thinking rather than analytical thinking regarding this particular theory, more so than other theories.

It has no effect on his relationship with Tywin, Tywin is dead and Tyrion knows nothing and the truth of his parents has not even been hinted to him yet, so how it could effect that, makes no sense. You can't change the past, it's already over and done with and that relationship has already ended. People complain that Martin added to Cersei's back story with the Mags prophecy, oh and they got so upset. It did nothing to change the fact she was a horrible mother and person, hell she kills a little girl in the flashback. If anything it just shows she was a rather messed up person going back to childhood, as if people didn't know that, hello manipulation of Jaime, incest, getting him in the KG in an unknown manner and trying to rip off Tyrions little general. Oh and what she did to the servants, she was not a nice kid, and Tywin was a manipulative dick and nothing is going to change that. His own theme song is about a massacre, that is right he has a theme song and it's about a massacre. He ordered the death of a 3 year old and baby still in it's crib.

What exactly is going to change? Oh he was just made because of Aerys being my dad, oh he is a good person now, I feel bad for him. Once you have ordered your fare share of baby killings. By fare share I mean zero, umm there is no going back. There is no real gosh I am sorry about the whole bashing the babies head against the wall thing, I feel bad, so how about I take a time out and we call it even? Hey guess what the Mountain likes puppies, just not little Hound puppy who he stuck in a fire. Liking puppies changes nothing about the Mountain. The Mountain is evil. Tywin suspecting Tyrion had a different father or maybe even wanting him to have a different father changes nothing about the abuses he laid on Tyrion who is not to blame for being born. Just like Jon did not deserve some of the treatment he received from Cat.

There is no oh gosh poor Tywin, Tywin was an asshole and this only further complicates that relationship.

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UL,

are there really fans of other posters here? I really hope that's not the case. I just happen to like the people I can discuss with (you included) and that necessitates both an interest in debate as well as different opinions to various degrees. If not, then we are just listening to monologues (which happens to be the case in some of the topics I'm interested in ;-)).

As to the unpopularity of the theory:

I think westeros.org is sort of a special case because many posters have been with the series since the beginning or at least the early days. I'm only a pre-AFfC reader (although I only joined that board after reading AFfC in 2005) but even I was long uncomfortable with the Tyrion-Aerys idea. It just feels weird if you are accustomed with his trueborn Lannister identity and are not really expecting or looking forward to such a change for the character (quite different with Jon Snow since he is just a bastard and the whole thing is much easier to figure out).

I also happen to have realized that this whole 'bastard theme' of the story has really a tendency to latch itself on the readers. There is a tendency to internalize the fact that trueborn children are 'better' (as a concept) than illegitimate children, and one does actually not want that heroes are revealed to be not who they (and we) thought they were. Especially in Tyrion's case it is easy to see why this should not happen. Tywin would posthumously be right to reject Tyrion, perhaps even justified.

I have noticed that there is quite a bit of group-think on the forums now; not only posters with a reputation of being good analyical thinkers (those tend to get praise after they post a theory, and few if any critical questions) but it's also there in such things as the Dany-fans versus Stannis-fans, Jon=AA vs Dany=AA, show vs book etc.

People seem to identify with a group and the subscribe to what the prominent members of such groups write, nowadays; there was a time the forums were different and theories got much more open discussion without there being a clear pro and contra group.

In the case of this theory, what is most striking is not that people disagree but that many say "crackpot" or "wishful thinking". Even very recently on Watchers of the wall, group consensus in that particular discussion seemed to be "idiotic theory borne out of wishful thinking". This theory really hits a nerve with a lot of people, for some reason.

It's astounding that more than half think Tyrion will be a dragonrider (as seems likely) yet only one about half of those then ask themselves questions about those Joanna/Aerys rumours. But then I guess, another "hot topic" right now is that Targaryen shouldn't be special and riding dragons is for everyone.

If you ask me, the refusal to even consider the theory on its merits (which doesn't have to mean you agree wih it) is the result of emotion, not the other way round.

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It has no effect on his relationship with Tywin, Tywin is dead and Tyrion knows nothing and the truth of his parents has not even been hinted to him yet, so how it could effect that, makes no sense. You can't change the past, it's already over and done with and that relationship has already ended. People complain that Martin added to Cersei's back story with the Mags prophecy, oh and they got so upset. It did nothing to change the fact she was a horrible mother and person, hell she kills a little girl in the flashback. If anything it just shows she was a rather messed up person going back to childhood, as if people didn't know that, hello manipulation of Jaime, incest, getting him in the KG in an unknown manner and trying to rip off Tyrions little general. Oh and what she did to the servants, she was not a nice kid, and Tywin was a manipulative dick and nothing is going to change that. His own theme song is about a massacre, that is right he has a theme song and it's about a massacre. He ordered the death of a 3 year old and baby still in it's crib.

What exactly is going to change? Oh he was just made because of Aerys being my dad, oh he is a good person now, I feel bad for him. Once you have ordered your fare share of baby killings. By fare share I mean zero, umm there is no going back. There is no real gosh I am sorry about the whole bashing the babies head against the wall thing, I feel bad, so how about I take a time out and we call it even? Hey guess what the Mountain likes puppies, just not little Hound puppy who he stuck in a fire. Liking puppies changes nothing about the Mountain. The Mountain is evil. Tywin suspecting Tyrion had a different father or maybe even wanting him to have a different father changes nothing about the abuses he laid on Tyrion who is not to blame for being born. Just like Jon did not deserve some of the treatment he received from Cat.

There is no oh gosh poor Tywin, Tywin was an asshole and this only further complicates that relationship.

I think for these people finding out that Tywin knew Tyrion was the son of Aerys would, at some level, provide an excuse for Tywin's attitude toward Tyrion. These people think that viewing the relationship as one in which a father treats his true-born son as crap almost exclusively out of prejudice for the boy's deformities is how they like to understand the relationship. Anything that disturbs that view of the story seems to really upset them.

Of course, I agree with you -- but this issue really is a matter of emotional reaction -- and we cannot mandate how people feel toward a story-line.

I have noticed that there is quite a bit of group-think on the forums now; not only posters with a reputation of being good analyical thinkers (those tend to get praise after they post a theory, and few if any critical questions) but it's also there in such things as the Dany-fans versus Stannis-fans, Jon=AA vs Dany=AA, show vs book etc.

People seem to identify with a group and the subscribe to what the prominent members of such groups write, nowadays; there was a time the forums were different and theories got much more open discussion without there being a clear pro and contra group.

In the case of this theory, what is most striking is not that people disagree but that many say "crackpot" or "wishful thinking". Even very recently on Watchers of the wall, group consensus in that particular discussion seemed to be "idiotic theory borne out of wishful thinking". This theory really hits a nerve with a lot of people, for some reason.

It's astounding that more than half think Tyrion will be a dragonrider (as seems likely) yet only one about half of those then ask themselves questions about those Joanna/Aerys rumours. But then I guess, another "hot topic" right now is that Targaryen shouldn't be special and riding dragons is for everyone.

If you ask me, the refusal to even consider the theory on its merits (which doesn't have to mean you agree wih it) is the result of emotion, not the other way round.

Great point about the crackpot -- wishful thinking angle. The OP includes more evidence in favor of the theory than maybe any theory other than RLJ. Even if someone thinks that clues can all be explained by alternative theory -- how can a theory with so much possible evidence be crackpot? As you note, it seems to come back to the issue of emotion over rational thinking. And no other theory seems to engender such a reaction. I don't get it. But assuming the theory is true -- I will find the reaction from those people on the board (assuming they come on and admit to their reaction) to be quite entertaining.

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I think for these people finding out that Tywin knew Tyrion was the son of Aerys would, at some level, provide an excuse for Tywin's attitude toward Tyrion. These people think that viewing the relationship as one in which a father treats his true-born son as crap almost exclusively out of prejudice for the boy's deformities is how they like to understand the relationship. Anything that disturbs that view of the story seems to really upset them.

Of course, I agree with you -- but this issue really is a matter of emotional reaction -- and we cannot mandate how people feel toward a story-line.

Sometimes I try to counter that approach by pointing out that Tywin was, in some aspects, a better father to Tyrion than Ned was to Jon Snow. Tywin raised Tyrion as his legitimate son and did not kill him while Eddard Stark robbed Rhaegar's son by Elia both of his identity, history, and legal claim, condemning him to live out his life as a bastard. Granted, he raised him at his table with his children by Catelyn, but he could not give Jon Snow the life he deserved, the life of growing up as child that was not considered to be a bastard - which, by and far, is an unpleasant life in this society, and nothing a nobleman would want to live (certainly many people in the smallfolk would gladly grow up in the somewhat privileged position of a noble bastard).

In Ned's case people come up with not the rather forced explanation that safety concerns justify Ned's lies to Jon Snow (and to his own family) but people rarely think about what reasons might a man like Tywin have motivated to raise Tyrion as his own legitimate son. If we assume Tywin knew the truth he becomes a much more interesting (and softer) character than people usually think he is. For one, he would be a real family man for whom blood matters more than anything else, and secondly he could actually be motivated by love to do something like that. Not by love for Tyrion, of course, but by love for Joanna. We have to keep in mind that Tywin had every opportunity to kill Tyrion, either doing it himself, by stopping to feed him, or by arranging some sort of accident later on.

Not to mention that the bastard story certainly gives a much better explanation as to why Tywin despises Tyrion to the degree that he does. He cannot bring himself to love that child, and there must be a reason for that other than the clichéd 'he is an ugly dwarf and killed his mother at his birth'. Especially in connection to the fact Jeyne Marbrand also seemed to die in the wake of Gerion's birth - a fact Tywin never seemed to hold against him. Women die in childbirth rather often, and mostly people get over it. Even Viserys, who also blames Dany for the death of his mother, sort of got over that.

If you ask me, the refusal to even consider the theory on its merits (which doesn't have to mean you agree with it) is the result of emotion, not the other way round.

Yeah, that certainly is a big part of it. However, the theory was sort of crackpot or at least a fringe theory back before the publication of ADwD.

But that book and subsequently TWoIaF added much more evidence to that, not only hints in the Tyrion-Aerys direction but also on the whole field of dragonriding and dragonbonding. Back when people first began to think about the future riders of Dany's dragons we had pretty much nothing to go on how that worked. You could easily hold the position that there was little/nothing magical in Targaryen blood (although that was always sort of problematic in light of Dany's dreams and the successful spell in AGoT) and that pretty much anyone can become a dragonrider.

But since then we have also gotten a lot of hints that to have (the right drop of) Targaryen/dragonlord blood is a necessary condition to become a dragonrider. The only way around that idea now would be the 'biased historians approach' and the magic Dragonbinder might work. In the latter case it is not very likely that this horn does its spells for anyone, though - but still, it would be a possibility to make a person with no dragonlord blood a dragonrider. But this will then most likely make Victarion a dragonrider not Tyrion - Tyrion has little to no prospect to ever use Dragonbider to bind a dragon to his will. And even if he did, I don't see him actually sacrificing another person's life for the chance of getting a dragon.

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Rhaenys,

the Aegon as a Blackfyre scenario clearly was never on the table, of course. I just used that as an example to illustrate that Tyrion claiming Aegon is fake/a Blackfyre would not necessarily do him any damage during the negotiations with Dany because, you know, she might actually marry an open Blackfyre if he gave her the Golden Company in exchange for her hand.

Dany was Mhysa back in Yunkai, yes, but if she gone west - either by land or by ship - she would have lost that status, especially if she hadn't taken all the freed slaves with her or many of them had died along the way. In any case, Volantis' take on that whole thing isn't the most important thing. The most important thing is that Aegon had the Golden Company, and the price for Dany to get would have been marrying Aegon and acknowledging him as her brother's son. One really has to ask oneself whether Dany would have ever rejected Aegon as her future husband in any such scenario. Even if he was obviously fake - neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre - he still would give her 10,000 fine soldiers, soldiers she would have needed in such a scenario.

When Dany now comes to Westeros she might no longer need any support from anyone there because she comes with tens of thousands of Dothraki, freedmen companies, sellswords, Ironborn, and professional Volantene soldiers. Whether anyone in Westeros will be supporting her claim will be interesting to see. I'd not be surprised if the Realm was unified against her by that point. That could, in fact, be part of the reason why Aegon was introduced in the first place. To give Westeros a king that could unite the Realm against Daenerys. The Lannisters could not possibly do that in the wake of the War of the Five Kings, their relationship with Dorne, and the Red Wedding. Stannis was always introduced as not popular enough, and any Baratheon claim would never stand against a Targaryen pretender with dragons. It is no coincidence that the supporters of Daemon II Blackfyre thought that Daemon could win the throne easily and quickly if a living dragon hatched at Whitewalls. Dragons are the very symbols or royalty and supreme power in Westeros, and every person bringing back the dragons and/or riding a living dragon now after they had been extinct for so long would face little to no resistance when trying to win the throne.

This is not necessarily a contradiction to the 'Aegon unites Westeros against Dany' scenario. If Aegon becomes a very promising and successful king, righting wrongs, punishing the evil doers, pacifying the Realm, then the war-tired people most likely are not going to be eager to fight another war to seat another Targaryen on the throne, dragons or not.

As to Tyrion's claim:

We'll have to see. If Tyrion rises high among Dany's advisers, eventually commanding troops he might become the natural 'second man' among her people - and at first only they would count. If he also becomes a dragonrider and is recognized by Daenerys as her half-brother and perhaps even legitimized by her as Tyrion Targaryen then he'll become her natural heir should anything happen to her. Becoming a dragonrider clearly changes you if Hugh and Ulf are any indication. People flocked to their banners despite the fact that they were lowborn rabble, and the fact that they became dragonriders clearly put them on equal footing with the Targaryens. Something similar could easily happen to Tyrion, too. Ulf and Hugh weren't loved by many people due to their betrayals, but they still got followers who supported their so-called claims.

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Regarding "loyal following"... One should believe in a theory because they find the clues for that theory convincing, not because a specific person believes in a theory. 

 

Dany was Mhysa back in Yunkai, yes, but if she gone west - either by land or by ship - she would have lost that status, especially if she hadn't taken all the freed slaves with her or many of them had died along the way. In any case, Volantis' take on that whole thing isn't the most important thing. The most important thing is that Aegon had the Golden Company, and the price for Dany to get would have been marrying Aegon and acknowledging him as her brother's son. One really has to ask oneself whether Dany would have ever rejected Aegon as her future husband in any such scenario. Even if he was obviously fake - neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre - he still would give her 10,000 fine soldiers, soldiers she would have needed in such a scenario.

If Dany had immediately gone west from Meereen, she would still have passed Volantis, no matter which route she took. Would she be able to let the most populous of the Free Cities be untaken, whilst some 83% of its inhabitants are slaves, many of which would be willing to revolt in support of her?

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I think for these people finding out that Tywin knew Tyrion was the son of Aerys would, at some level, provide an excuse for Tywin's attitude toward Tyrion. These people think that viewing the relationship as one in which a father treats his true-born son as crap almost exclusively out of prejudice for the boy's deformities is how they like to understand the relationship. Anything that disturbs that view of the story seems to really upset them.

Of course, I agree with you -- but this issue really is a matter of emotional reaction -- and we cannot mandate how people feel toward a story-line.

Great point about the crackpot -- wishful thinking angle. The OP includes more evidence in favor of the theory than maybe any theory other than RLJ. Even if someone thinks that clues can all be explained by alternative theory -- how can a theory with so much possible evidence be crackpot? As you note, it seems to come back to the issue of emotion over rational thinking. And no other theory seems to engender such a reaction. I don't get it. But assuming the theory is true -- I will find the reaction from those people on the board (assuming they come on and admit to their reaction) to be quite entertaining.

Well of course it a lot of fans have a bad reaction to it, you have character bias. This is not just about Tyrion having a journey, this is Tyrion the Targ. A secret Targ, and that challenges Jon's secret Targness. At least some think it does they feel if Tyrion is a secret Targ it somehow diminishes Jon the secret Targ. Generally it comes down to character bias, the story is all about my fav so this character has no business in it. Though I would say the bias against this theory is much less than it was in 2013 - 2014. I don't see it getting much negative reaction save for a few posters, and it's a nationally acknowledged theory. It's been one of the big theories in magazines.

This was always having a flame war over something. Jon and Dany, that was what 2013 - 2015, Jon fans constantly attacking Dany or Dany fans. Or when Sansa fans would attack anything Tyrion related, to suggest Tyrion  was nice to Sansa was to start a war. A lot of that has been crushed out these days. It was always something, remember when the Stannis fans constantly head Stannis threads and somehow everything was about Stannis. "Remember when Stannis walked in the burning Pit and woke the Dragons from Stone?" "Remember when Stannis shot Tywin with a crossbow?" "Remember when Stannis won the tourney of Harrenhal crowned Lyanna with Blue Roses?" Oh E-Ro, good times, good times.

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I think the thing that blows my mind the most, is that because R+L=J is so widely held true that it seems to have the affect on A+J=T because there could not possibly be a second "hidden" Targaryen.

Even though it is foreshadowed in Tyrion and Jon's meeting in the first book "All dwarfs are bastards in their father eyes"/ "Most of my kin are bastards"

Then, on top of that, GRRM introduces another former "secret" Targaryen in fAegon, clearly meant to be a contender (pretender) for one of the heads of the Dragon, but also clearly having questionable authenticity issues. GRRM obviously DOES NOT have a problem with characters with hidden origins/ parentage.

I dont get the argument that Tyrion would be "too many" secret Targaryens for the story.The entire book is filled with characters with secret parentage issues (Jon, Joff, Tommen, Myrcella, fAegon...)

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