A+J=T v.8

[Jô Maltese]

I just reread the bit where Tywin denies Tyrion'a claim to Casterly Rock, and I have to admit it did feel like he had his doubts about whether Tyrion was actually his son. 

Re-read this as well...

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion V

“The substance flows through my veins, and lives in the heart of every pyromancer. We respect its power. But the common soldier, hmmmm, the crew of one of the queen's spitfires, say, in the unthinking frenzy of battle . . . any little mistake can bring catastrophe. That cannot be said too often. My father often told King Aerys as much, as his father told old King Jaehaerys."

"They must have listened," Tyrion said. "If they had burned the city down, someone would have told me. So your counsel is that we had best be careful?"

 

And look at Jaehaerys descriptions from aWoIaF...

Quote

 

In 240 AC, a year after Prince Duncan's marriage, Prince Jaehaerys and Princess Shaera each eluded their guardians and were secretly married. Jaehaerys was fifteen and Shaera fourteen at the time of their wedding.

(...)

Jaehaerys, the least martial of Aegon's three sons.(...) Unlike his brothers, Jaehaerys II Targaryen was thin and scrawny, and had battled various ailments all his life. Yet he did not lack for courage, or intelligence.

(...)

Though never strong, Jaehaerys II proved to be a capable king, restoring order to the Seven Kingdoms and reconciling many of the great houses who had grown unhappy with the Iron Throne because of King Aegon V's attempted reforms.

 

[Balerion's Whiskers]

^^^ Excellent find! I've never seen these quotes put together like this.

[Weirdo]

[...]

...if Tyrion gets a dragon in the show...he will almost certainly get one in the books. I doubt that we'll ever get to see where whores go in the show and I think the valonqar has been cut, but Tyrion's ultimate fate is probably going to be very close to GRRM's words.

[...]

As for that, George as much as said that Tyrion would get a dragon in the books, based on my reading of a certain Not A Blog post:

http://grrm.livejournal.com/16495.html

I think for sure that means he'll get one on the show, since:

he's ruling Meereen, and thus in charge of the dragons. He'll probably go have a look - Book Tyrion certainly would, and although Show Tyrion doesn't have quite as much of an obsession with dragons, he's been shown gazing at them emotionally. If there's any connection between them, Show Tyrion will sense it right away, I bet, and in the show, there's no component of dominating the dragon by force of will - Show Dany used her gentle charm when she mounted Drogon in the pit, and gave him a petting, not a whipping. All Show Tyrion will have to do is make eyebrows at them and maybe bring them a sheep.

As for confirming A+J=T, they don't have to, but they could. Show Selmy is dead, but Show Varys is there, and he's the most likely person to know the truth of it on the show. But since they haven't really contended with the question of Targ blood on the show, they might choose to leave A+J=T out entirely, and just let Show Tyrion have a dragon because he's the hero of the show.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

As for that, George as much as said that Tyrion would get a dragon in the books, based on my reading of a certain Not A Blog post:

http://grrm.livejournal.com/16495.html

I think for sure that means he'll get one on the show, since:

Hidden Content

 

That Not A Blog teaser coulda been just messing around. At least that's the way I read it. But I'll concede it could be interpreted either way. As for Tyrion's situation in Meereen, even after the spoiler chapters, you're still a step ahead of yourself. And as they so often do, the plot lines in the show and the novels have diverged in significant ways. Daenerys left Meereen before even knowing of Tyrion's existence. But in the show, she accepted him into her service after Varys, who appears to be unquestionably pro-Targaryen in the show, delivered him directly, and there is no White Knight to hold Meereen together on her Silver. 

How ironic would it be if D&D elect not to put Dinklage on CGI dragon, but if The George has him riding in a special fire-resistant "saddle."

[Balerion's Whiskers]

As for that, George as much as said that Tyrion would get a dragon in the books, based on my reading of a certain Not A Blog post:

http://grrm.livejournal.com/16495.html

I think for sure that means he'll get one on the show, since:

Hidden Content

 

I've read that, and yes, it appears that GRRM is teasing us with that possibility. Can you imagine the look on Cersei's face to see a dragon-mounted Tyrion fly by her window??? It probably won't happen in either the books or the show, but it would be an awesome moment.

 

And here we are, comparing the show and the books. I'm afraid as the season progresses, the lines will blur even more and yes, I think Show Tyrion will fall all over himself to go have a look-see at the chained dragons, once he hears that they are under the pyramid.

[Weirdo]

Comparing the show to the book to make predictions is a black art, and we haven't really seen our predictions tested yet, whatever they may be. Televos is a much simpler place than Westeros! Especially on the political front. And arbitrary - we see characters killed off just because an actor wasn't available. It's actually appropriate to make emotional arguments for Televos theories, because that's more along the lines of how show runners think.

But it's really interesting (and a big spoiler) in the case of:

Shireen. In an interview, Benioff and Weiss make it pretty clear that Shireen's fate came from George. The timing we don't know, but unless George himself was plotting a different course for the show, which is possible, then that's a spoiler. If they had just not blabbed about the idea coming from George, it wouldn't feel like a spoiler as much.

 

[UnmaskedLurker]

Comparing the show to the book to make predictions is a black art, and we haven't really seen our predictions tested yet, whatever they may be. Televos is a much simpler place than Westeros! Especially on the political front. And arbitrary - we see characters killed off just because an actor wasn't available. It's actually appropriate to make emotional arguments for Televos theories, because that's more along the lines of how show runners think.

But it's really interesting (and a big spoiler) in the case of:

Hidden Content

Here is the thing in my mind. Yes, there will be differences. Yes, we may not able to be 100% sure that TV events will be the same as Book events. But some things almost certainly will be the same. And I would be shocked if A+J=T is different in the two media. If Tyrion is a Targ bastard -- he is a Targ bastard because beings so is important to the endgame -- to him being the third head of the dragon. D&D are not going to change that. And if we are wrong and Tyrion is not a Targ bastard -- there would be absolutely no reason for D&D to make him on the show.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Here is the thing in my mind. Yes, there will be differences. Yes, we may not able to be 100% sure that TV events will be the same as Book events. But some things almost certainly will be the same. And I would be shocked if A+J=T is different in the two media. If Tyrion is a Targ bastard -- he is a Targ bastard because beings so is important to the endgame -- to him being the third head of the dragon. D&D are not going to change that. And if we are wrong and Tyrion is not a Targ bastard -- there would be absolutely no reason for D&D to make him on the show.

if anything, i think it would go the other way; The George's twisted little monkey demon might very well be the Mad King's bastard. And virtually everyone who reads ASOIAF would be like, "Whoa, no way!" but how many TV show fans would even understand? Even RLJ for most of them willhave to be ddeveloped much more before it's reevealed. I was spoiiling some very good friends who only watch the show (and they're more than casual fans since we enjoy playing the board game) as to RLJ, and it took me like 15 to 20 minutes to feed them the back story and the hints before they got to RLJ. So I could see AJT being true, but then D&D not even bother with it. 

[UnmaskedLurker]

if anything, i think it would go the other way; The George's twisted little monkey demon might very well be the Mad King's bastard. And virtually everyone who reads ASOIAF would be like, "Whoa, no way!" but how many TV show fans would even understand? Even RLJ for most of them willhave to be ddeveloped much more before it's reevealed. I was spoiiling some very good friends who only watch the show (and they're more than casual fans since we enjoy playing the board game) as to RLJ, and it took me like 15 to 20 minutes to feed them the back story and the hints before they got to RLJ. So I could see AJT being true, but then D&D not even bother with it. 

I think they would need to bother with it because they have referenced Lord of the Light (their version of AAR) and the one who was promised (their version of TPTWP) -- so they are referencing the prophecies. If Tyrion is a Targ bastard it is because fulfillment of the prophecy requires it -- so D&D would stick with it. If Tyrion is a Targ bastard it is because he is a head of the dragon -- and the three heads -- Jon, Dany and Tyrion -- are all Targs. All 3 having Targ blood almost certainly is integral to the end game if Tyrion is a Targ bastard. D&D really could not eliminate that element without meaningfully changing the end game -- which they said they are not doing.

[Balerion's Whiskers]

I think the showrunners have to hit the main plot points that leads up to the endgame. They have so far. Now, there's some things that they have left out, but apparently those things do not influence the ultimate outcome. Which is another thing that book readers pick up on... fAegon, Arienne and Harry the Heir must not part of the ultimate endgame.

UmL I see what you are getting at with Tyrion having to be a Targ if he gets a dragon show and book. D&D will need to give the show watchers alot more to make that leap. Like LM said, they are going to have to do quite a bit more to get watchers ready for R+L=J but as for us book readers, they've been hitting us over the head with clues for some time now, (Daario gave Dany a blue rose...waaay back in the series) but I think for the most part, show watchers will be shocked.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think they would need to bother with it because they have referenced Lord of the Light (their version of AAR) and the one who was promised (their version of TPTWP) -- so they are referencing the prophecies. If Tyrion is a Targ bastard it is because fulfillment of the prophecy requires it -- so D&D would stick with it. If Tyrion is a Targ bastard it is because he is a head of the dragon -- and the three heads -- Jon, Dany and Tyrion -- are all Targs. All 3 having Targ blood almost certainly is integral to the end game if Tyrion is a Targ bastard. D&D really could not eliminate that element without meaningfully changing the end game -- which they said they are not doing.

I thought they passed on, "There must be one more?" Only Daenerys's vision of Rhaegar in the House of the Undying Ones,  the Undyings ones themselves, Alleras, and Aemon have spoken of that prophecy. I guess they could still have someone take Alleras's place, but we can only guess at her ... game. And they haven't whacked ol' Aemon yet, so they could develop it...

We're gonna get this thread locked for talking about the show, man

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think the showrunners have to hit the main plot points that leads up to the endgame. They have so far. Now, there's some things that they have left out, but apparently those things do not influence the ultimate outcome. Which is another thing that book readers pick up on... fAegon, Arienne and Harry the Heir must not part of the ultimate endgame.

UmL I see what you are getting at with Tyrion having to be a Targ if he gets a dragon show and book. D&D will need to give the show watchers alot more to make that leap. Like LM said, they are going to have to do quite a bit more to get watchers ready for R+L=J but as for us book readers, they've been hitting us over the head with clues for some time now, (Daario gave Dany a blue rose...waaay back in the series) but I think for the most part, show watchers will be shocked.

Man, we gots to Ixnay on the owshay >_>

[UnmaskedLurker]

I thought they passed on, "There must be one more?" Only Daenerys's vision of Rhaegar in the House of the Undying Ones,  the Undyings ones themselves, Alleras, and Aemon have spoken of that prophecy. I guess they could still have someone take Alleras's place, but we can only guess at her ... game. And they haven't whacked ol' Aemon yet, so they could develop it...

We're gonna get this thread locked for talking about the show, man

I certainly don't want to get locked so I won't say much. I will just say that I think some people overestimate the extent to which D&D think they need to set stuff up. I think they are happy to just have a big reveal -- with almost no foreshadowing -- and then explain later -- which for most book readers who do not pick up on the clues is how they experience the book anyway.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I've gotten a bit behind on responding to people.. 

ASoKaF--

I appreciate your feedback and found it to be well thought out and incisive. To clarify -- while I think you are 100% correct that 5-6 people pointing out why someone is "wrong" can be intimidating and uninviting, I am not sure how to solve that problem (maybe there is no way). As to accusing people of being emotional -- as I stated before, I try my best to avoid "personal attacks" unless someone really seems to be trolling or arguing in bad faith. All of the discussion of emotional arguments has been talking in general terms and not addressed at any particular poster.

Have more people on the other side of the argument to join the conversation.   

 

And if you ask Rhaenys_Targaryen, who posts to this thread from time to time and does not agree with the AJT theory, I think she can confirm (at least I hope she can confirm) that I have never accused her of being overly emotional about the issue (1) (and don't think she is) (2), and we have had pretty good discussions about the AJT theory on an evidence-based level.(3) Unfortunately, people like her -- who do not believe in the theory but also engage primarily in evidence-based argumentation about the theory -- seem to be few and far between. So I don't think that I merely assume that someone is being emotional because they disagree with me. I think they are emotional based on the nature of the arguments they make.

(1) You have never made any such accusation, nor have I ever gotten the impression that you might have been trying to do so  

(2) Good to hear it as confirmation anyway  

(3) Yes! And that's the way discussions about theories, imo, should be.

 

Re: TWOIAF

heres the deal - I presume that GRRM would have told the authors the outlines of what he wanted to say but that since he did not pen the words, the details of the execution would be up to them.  Hence the facts are correct and fully canon, but things like personality assessments, or opinions that characters have are potentially subject to (probably unconscious) biases to prior positions/theories held by the (real life) authors.

That is why, I think, GRRM chose to use second or third hand accounts as the narrators in the world book in the first place (rather than simply using a "word of God" approach like has been done for some other similar books).  That way if the (real life) authors did tweak some detail or details of character in a way semi-inconsistent with what "really" happened it can easily be chalked up to biases in the (fictional) author of a particular third hand account.

As I understood, every word not written down by GRRM himself, was evaluated by GRRM, and changed when he felt necessary, or when he disagreed. 

 

Spoon, I havevthe impression that The George wrote a lot of World...

Do we have a final word-count for TWOIAF to compare this with, by any chance?

 

 

I considered that and even noted that in my PM to Ran (at the time of writing that PM, I thought that TV show references were allowed as long as in spoiler boxes--but now I have heard from different people that even that might not be allowed). But a discussion where almost everything is discussed in hidden text gets irritating rather quickly. I don't find that to be a solution either. 

If they don't set up a separate sub-forum as I (and obviously others) have suggested -- I guess I will consider trying to set up a thread on the show forum that is clearly marked some like -- "A+J=T [Book Analysis Using Show Spoilers]". I don't know -- I am open to suggestions on what to do and how to present it. Going to a different forum is not an option as I really don't like the other forums very much (for different reasons for each).

I suppose it is possible that the TV forum will get a specific book spoilers subform, in the way that the General subforum has the subfora "The World of Ice and Fire" and "Re-read Projects". That would be a simple way to keep the book-sections seperated from the show info, whilst creating a place specifically for such overlap.

Discussions here, IIRC, are allowed in spoiler tags, just as when new books come out.

 

 

There IS prescient for a non-Targ to get a dragon ride.

 

And don't forget Alys, Prince Aemond's paramour. Did Lord Ronnel fly on his own, or was Visenya on Vhagar with him? Do we know, possibly from a reading or something?

 

I just reread the bit where Tywin denies Tyrion'a claim to Casterly Rock, and I have to admit it did feel like he had his doubts about whether Tyrion was actually his son. 

Say that he indeed was having doubts... Why was he having such doubts? Because he suspected that Joanna had been with another around the time Tyrion would have been conceived, OR, because he can't believe that he, Tywin, could possibly have fathered a child such as Tyrion?

Those are two very different options. And the second one doesn't seem to ever be considered.

I'm going to touch upon that in my essay (have not yet started writing, but I have started writing down notes for myself).

 

[UnmaskedLurker]

I've gotten a bit behind on responding to people.. 

Have more people on the other side of the argument to join the conversation.   

 

(1) You have never made any such accusation, nor have I ever gotten the impression that you might have been trying to do so  

(2) Good to hear it as confirmation anyway  

(3) Yes! And that's the way discussions about theories, imo, should be.

 

As to having more people on the other side -- if only I could control that issue. I would enjoy it greatly if I could get more such people into this room for a more lively debate.

I also appreciate that you confirmed my characterization of our prior exchanges was accurate. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Well, technically I'm on the other side so that's two. 

[Jô Maltese]

As for that, George as much as said that Tyrion would get a dragon in the books, based on my reading of a certain Not A Blog post:

http://grrm.livejournal.com/16495.html

I think for sure that means he'll get one on the show, since:

Hidden Content

 

 fully, especially the bit about show Varys. Mind you, neither does Book A+J=T need to be revealed. His riding a dragon will be the sole pseudo-confirmation we will get IMHO. And then it will be up to us to conclude, just like we had to on Nettles = Targ Seed or Maynard Plumm = Bloodraven.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

As to having more people on the other side -- if only I could control that issue. I would enjoy it greatly if I could get more such people into this room for a more lively debate.

I also appreciate that you confirmed my characterization of our prior exchanges was accurate. 

Perhaps that'll still happen  

And yeah, I had wanted to reply to that earlier, but I was so busy that I had lost track of which threads I had replied to and which I hadn't yet..

 

Well, technically I'm on the other side so that's two. 

  

[Balerion's Whiskers]

Sorry folks. I'll stop on the show talk.

As was noted up thread, there are two ways that the Tywin comment could be taken...one, that he suspected Joanna was unfaithful and two, that he, Tywin couldn't have fathered such a creature.

I've long-thought it was the latter and am surprised that he didn't pull a Randyl Tarly and send his disappointing get to the Wall as soon as he was of age. Tywin was all about power and appearances, which made Tyrion a liability to his House. Calling Tyrion the 'Imp' is probably worse for Tywin than Tyrion and Tyrion's attitude toward whores and liquor didn't help Tywin's attitude

I suspect that A+J=T will never be fully revealed both in the book and in the show. As JM said, it might be a Nettles situation and readers will have to draw their own conclusions as to what it means. GRRM gave us Nettles (and other dragonseeds) riding dragons for a reason and he isn't obligated to solve every little mystery on the page. In fact, it seems to me that he might enjoy leaving little ambiguous 'nuggets' for us to ponder.

 

[Lord Varys]

Sorry folks. I'll stop on the show talk.

As was noted up thread, there are two ways that the Tywin comment could be taken...one, that he suspected Joanna was unfaithful and two, that he, Tywin couldn't have fathered such a creature.

I've long-thought it was the latter and am surprised that he didn't pull a Randyl Tarly and send his disappointing get to the Wall as soon as he was of age. Tywin was all about power and appearances, which made Tyrion a liability to his House. Calling Tyrion the 'Imp' is probably worse for Tywin than Tyrion and Tyrion's attitude toward whores and liquor didn't help Tywin's attitude

I suspect that A+J=T will never be fully revealed both in the book and in the show. As JM said, it might be a Nettles situation and readers will have to draw their own conclusions as to what it means. GRRM gave us Nettles (and other dragonseeds) riding dragons for a reason and he isn't obligated to solve every little mystery on the page. In fact, it seems to me that he might enjoy leaving little ambiguous 'nuggets' for us to ponder.

This is why I think the fact that Tywin actually raised Tyrion as his son could make him a better man than we commonly thought he was. He could never bring himself to love him and he clearly despised him, but he allowed him to live under his roof, wear the Lannister arms, and so on.

There are many reasons why he may have done so - first there could be Lyanna-like situation in which Joanna begged Tywin on her deathbed to not blame the child and take care of him. If Tywin loved his cousin and wife as dearly as he supposedly did - and there is no reason to believe that this wasn't the case - then this could explain why he took Tyrion in as his son. Another reason could be that he could not bring himself to kill or physically hurt a child of Joanna's even if he did not promise her to raise the child. We have to keep in mind that Tywin's deep love for the late Joanna Lannister (long dead by the time the series begins) most likely was introduced for a reason (no one ever mentions the 'deep love' Lord Rickard felt for his dead wife, Hoster felt for Minisa Whent, and so on) - and one of the reasons might be that Tywin's love for his wife was supposed to make it plausible why he would raise the king's bastard as his own son.

Another reason could be that Tywin only suspects but does not know that Tyrion is not his son. In that case he might have reluctant to harm the child, too. Not to mention that Aerys - who may have been aware that Joanna's last child was fathered by him - may have not exactly been forgiving if Tywin openly mistreated his son...

As to why Tywin never played a Randyll Tarly:

He felt he never had to. Jaime remained his heir in his mind and, Kingsguard or not, Tywin's extraordinary power would have made it easily possible to push Tyrion aside in favor of either Jaime, one of Cersei's younger children, or Kevan upon his own death. One assumes that Tywin has talked to Kevan about all that, and left specific instructions for the case of his sudden death. Not to mention that Tywin treated Tyrion in a way that made it perfectly clear that the Lord of Casterly Rock did not intend for him to inherit the Rock, making it less likely that any lords would gather around him forming 'the Imp's party' or something like that.

Tywin seems to have been so embarrassed by his dwarf son that he kept him out of sight for most of the time - which could also be part of the reason why he never was sent to the Citadel, to the Faith, or to the Wall. Not to mention that Tywin's view of 'Lannister specialness' may have been that you don't join such an order if you are a son of the Lord of Casterly Rock.

In the end, I think, the whole Tywin-Joanna-Aerys thing was certainly introduced to be resolved eventually, possibly/most likely by Barristan Selmy. There will be no paternity test for Tyrion, of course, but Barristan shedding more light on the events during the anniversary tourney of 273 AC (and this doesn't have to be him witnessing Joanna-Aerys having sex but could be restricted to him overhearing conversations between the king and Joanna or Aerys and Tywin). In combination with Tyrion becoming a dragonrider things will be as clear as they could possibly be in a medieval setting without paternity tests.

Not to mention that Bran could have a vision of the events leading to Tyrion's conception or Varys could reveal additional knowledge he has gathered during his time as Master of Whisperers (information coming verbatim from the mouths of Aerys, Tywin, Kevan, or other courtiers of that time who were present during the anniversary tourney of 273 AC).

One has to keep in mind that the Jon Snow revelation will also be based mostly on hearsay and (possibly) events that people think suggests that Jon may have Targaryen blood (like becoming a dragonrider or something similar). It will be very difficult to prove his parentage in a court of law, especially since Jon Snow's unknown mother - who she may have been in the Ned Stark scenario - could easily have had Targaryen blood, too. But people usually use different criteria for the Jon Snow thing than they use for the Tyrion discussion. Granted, there are more obvious hints in Jon's case but that is partially because Jon's case is deliberately easier due to the fact that he lacks a mother. Readers and people in-universe alike recognize the whole thing as a mystery whereas Tywin made it perfectly clear to the world that Tyrion is his son - and people seldom think that a great lord would actually accept being a cuckold and raise a bastard as his own legitimate son (think what Ned thinks Robert might do to Cersei's children should he find out the truth!).