BryndenBFish Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 IntroHello! Welcome back to the 2015 ASOIAF 5-site Theory Poll! You've been waiting for this moment. I've gotten your PMs, comment replies asking when the results will come out, and now's the moment you all (or least a few of you) have been waiting for: Results to the 2015 ASOIAF Theory!CaveatFirst, a caveat. Originally, I had hoped to create a massive imgur slide show showing all results. However, I realized that this would be something to the tune of 200+ images or part 1 alone. After spending the past week trying to create images for each and every fan question, I had only progressed halfway through part 1 of the poll. So, I decided on a different course.In lieu of overwhelming everyone with images, I decided to publish the analytics for each site and then create images for 5 theories that show some of the more popular (or unpopular) theories or theories that display greater variance among the 5 fan-communities.Overall DataI know, you want the results before you piss yourself, but I am a data nerd. So, I feel the need to go over some of the data and talk a minute about value and shortfalls of these polls.Overall, I had 9,232 responses to Part 1 of the poll split across 5 fan communities to the tune of:Reddit: 5036 responsesWesteros.org: 192 responsesTower of the Hand: 401 responsesWatchers on the Wall: 3424 responsesASOIAF Facebook: 240 responsesThank you all so much for voting! I was touched by all the people who cared enough to engage in this elaborate multi-part series. (Yeah, I know it was a long process)That said, the sample sizes for each represented only a small fraction of the userbase of each community. As an online poll, it needs to be emphasized that this is not a scientific poll. It captures a snapshot of what >1%-4% (depending on the fan base) of you all thought about the theories presented. Still... if I were to wager a guess, I'd venture that the results below broadly represent how passionate fans of ASOIAF feel about these theories across fan communities based in part on comparing 2015's results to 2014's results (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3).Now that I've gotten my data nerdery out of the way, I hope you haven't pissed yourself. Let's talk results!Google FormsHere's where you can find each and every result to identity and conspiracy theories that you all (and your compatriots in the other 4 fandoms) voted on!RedditWesteros.orgTower of the HandWatchers on the WallASOIAF FacebookSample ResultsHere's some of the responses I found fascinating:1. Jon Snow's ParentageHere, we start with some pretty consistent congruence on the part of these 5 fan communities. Over 90% of all respondents believe that Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark are Jon Snow's parents. Now... mea culpa, when I drew up the polls, I did not include the option for Eddard Stark + Ashara Dayne as Jon's parents. My bad. I'll fix for next year! Here's the results by fan community:RedditEddard Stark and Wylla: 31 (0.6%)Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 13 (0.3%)Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 4707 (95.1%)Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 128 (2.6%)Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 14 (0.3%)Eddard Sark and the Fisherman's Daughter: 11 (0.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 47 (0.9%)Westeros.orgEddard Stark and Wylla: 4 (2.1%)Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 1 (0.5%)Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 165 (86.4%)Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 9 (4.7%)Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 7 (3.7%)Eddard Sark and the Fisherman's Daughter: 0 (0%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 5 (2.6%)Tower of the HandEddard Stark and Wylla: 8 (2%)Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 2 (0.5%)Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 370 (93%)Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 6 (1.5%)Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 4 (1%)Eddard Sark and the Fisherman's Daughter: 4 (1%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 4 (1%)Watchers on the WallEddard Stark and Wylla: 14 (0.4%)Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 3 (0.1%)Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 3221 (95.6%)Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 80 (2.4%)Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 22 (0.7%)Eddard Sark and the Fisherman's Daughter: 12 (0.4%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 18 (0.5%)ASOIAF FacebookEddard Stark and Wylla: 0 (0%)Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 0 (0.%)Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 227 (95.8%)Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 6 (2.5%)Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 3 (1.3%)Eddard Sark and the Fisherman's Daughter: 0 (0%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 18 (0.5%)2. Aerys II Targaryen + Joanna Lannister = TyrionRoughly 2/3 of all respondents think that Tyrion is *not** the son of Aerys II. However, this question shows some moderate variance among fan communities.*Reddit led the "no" responses with a whopping 72% saying "No"Yes: 1104 (22.2%)No: 3584 (72.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 277 (5.6%)Westeros.org had similar responses to /r/asoiaf, but was a tiny bit more inclined to the Tyrion Targ TheoryYes: 50 (26.2%)No: 125 (66.1%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 14 (7.4%)Tower of the Hand was much more divided over Tyrion's parentageYes: 146 (38.6%)No: 232 (58.1%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 21 (5.3%)Watchers on the Wall had the second highest "Yes" votes of any fan community to Tyrion TargaryenYes: 1311 (39.2%)No: 1846 (55.1%)Don't Know/No Opinion (5.7%)ASOIAF Facebook had the highest percentage of "Yes" votes of any fan community to the Tyrion Targ TheoryYes: 93 (38.9%)No: 128 (53.6%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 18 (7.5%)3. Who is Azor Ahai Reborn?The identity of Azor Ahai brought out a lot of answers. Jon Snow won a plurality or outright majority of the votes in each community, but many different answers were given. Regardless, there's a degree of variance among communities for this answer with some interesting results!RedditStannis Baratheon: 50 (1%)Jon Snow: 2464 (49.8%)Daenerys Targaryen: 310 (6.3%)Victarion Greyjoy: 9 (0.2%)Aegon VI Targaryen: 5 (0.1%)Rhaegar Targaryen: 31 (0.6%)Jaime Lannister: 69 (1.4%)Davos Seaworth: 20 (0.4%)Jorah Mormont: 36 (0.7%)Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai's legendary characteristics: 1162 (23.5%)There is no Azor Ahai Reborn: 572 (11.6%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 160 (11.6%)Other: 58 (1.2%)Westeros.orgStannis Baratheon: 2 (1.1%)Jon Snow: 74 (38.9%)Daenerys Targaryen: 28 (14.7%)Victarion Greyjoy: 0 (0%)Aegon VI Targaryen: 1 (0.5%)Rhaegar Targaryen: 2 (1.1%)Jaime Lannister: 4 (2.1%)Davos Seaworth: 1 (0.5%)Jorah Mormont: 0 (0%)Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai's legendary characteristics: 39 (20.5%)There is no Azor Ahai Reborn: 21 (11.1%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 15 (7.9%)Other: 3 (1.6%)Tower of the HandStannis Baratheon: 1 (0.3%)Jon Snow: 211 (53.3%)Daenerys Targaryen: 69 (17.4%)Victarion Greyjoy: 1 (0.3%)Aegon VI Targaryen: 1 (0.5%)Rhaegar Targaryen: 0 (0%)Jaime Lannister: 2 (0.5%)Davos Seaworth: 2 (0.5%)Jorah Mormont: 1 (0.3%)Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai's legendary characteristics: 72 (27%)There is no Azor Ahai Reborn: 27 (6.8%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 7 (1.8%)Other: 2 (0.5%)Watchers on the WallStannis Baratheon: 19 (0.6%)Jon Snow: 1992 (59.3%)Daenerys Targaryen: 330 (9.8%)Victarion Greyjoy: 4 (0.1%)Aegon VI Targaryen: 4 (0.1%)Rhaegar Targaryen: 11 (0.3%)Jaime Lannister: 38 (1.1%)Davos Seaworth: 10 (0.3%)Jorah Mormont: 23 (0.7%)Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai's legendary characteristics: 217 (6.5%)There is no Azor Ahai Reborn:106 (3.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 106 (3.2%)Other: 36 (1.1%)ASOIAF FacebookStannis Baratheon: 0 (0%)Jon Snow: 114 (48.1%)Daenerys Targaryen: 30 (12.7%)Victarion Greyjoy: 1 (0.4%)Aegon VI Targaryen: 2 (0.8%)Rhaegar Targaryen: 2 (0.8%)Jaime Lannister: 4 (1.7%)Davos Seaworth: 0 (0%)Jorah Mormont: 2 (0.8%)Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai's legendary characteristics: 49 (20.7%)There is no Azor Ahai Reborn:17 (7.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 12 (5.1%)Other: 4 (1.7%)4. The Grand Northern ConspiracyI selected the GNC, because of the conflict between "Yes" responses and "Partially" responses and how that broke down by community. It's unique to see a question that is so polarizing and close (though we'll have cause to visit one of these questions next week which is even more divided)RedditYes: 2369 (48.2%)Partially: 1876 (38.2%)No: 447 (9.1%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 222 (4.5%)Westeros.orgYes: 68 (35.6%)Partially: 94 (49.2%)No: 21 (11%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 8 (4.2%)Tower of the HandYes: 150 (37.9%)Partially: 163 (41.2%)No: 68 (17.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 15 (3.8%)Watchers on the WallYes: 1490 (44.8%)Partially: 1302 (39.2%)No: 358 (10.8%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 175 (5.3%)ASOIAF FacebookYes: 7 (33.5%)Partially: 110 (47.2%)No: 25 (10.7%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 20 (8.6%)5. Who poisoned the locusts in Meereen?One of the more interesting results was that people are generally unsure (or don't care) about the locust poisoner from ADWD, Daenerys IX. Still... fans convinced of one candidate or another showed some variance.RedditHizdahr zo Loraq: 947 (19.3%)Skahaz mo Kandaq: 1413 (28.8%)Galazza Galare: 271 (5.5%)The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 217 (4.4%)Missandei: 52 (1.1%)House Pahl: 229 (4.7%)Gerris Drinkwater: 12 (0.2%)Daario Naharis: 231 (4.7%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 1456: (29.6%)Other: 83 (1.7%)Westeros.orgHizdahr zo Loraq: 42 (22.2%)Skahaz mo Kandaq: 51 (27%)Galazza Galare: 13 (6.9%)The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 7 (3.7%)Missandei: 4 (2.1%)House Pahl: 8 (4.2%)Gerris Drinkwater: 4 (2.1%)Daario Naharis: 6 (3.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 52: (27.5%)Other: 2 (1.1%)Tower of the HandHizdahr zo Loraq: 116 (29.3%)Skahaz mo Kandaq: 123 (31.1%)Galazza Galare: 34 (8.6%)The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 7 (3.7%)Missandei: 5 (1.3%)House Pahl: 5 (1.3%)Gerris Drinkwater: 1 (0.3%)Daario Naharis: 15 (3.8%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 78: (19.7%)Other: 2 (0.5%)Watchers on the WallHizdahr zo Loraq: 864 (26.2%)Skahaz mo Kandaq: 558 (16.9%)Galazza Galare: 280 (8.5%)The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 166 (5%)Missandei: 44 (1.3%)House Pahl: 69 (2.1%)Gerris Drinkwater: 7 (0.2%)Daario Naharis: 271 (8.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 1018 (30.9%)Other: 21 (0.6%)ASOIAF FacebookHizdahr zo Loraq: 61 (26.2%)Skahaz mo Kandaq: 48 (20.6%)Galazza Galare: 13 (5.6%)The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 12 (5.2%)Missandei: 4 (1.7%)House Pahl: 8 (3.4%)Gerris Drinkwater: 1 (0.4%)Daario Naharis: 12 (5.2%)Don't Know/No Opinion: 72 (30.9%)Other: 2 (0.9%) Other Responses, AKA Shit and GigglesKeeping on with the strong tradition from 2014, some of the "other" answers brought me some laughs, and I hope they provide the same for you. Here's some of the "other" responses I received:Who is Azor Ahai Reborn?Reddit: Hot Pie, Donald Trump, JOHN CENA, Littlefinger, Moon Boy, Ramsay Bolton, Ser Pounce, Timmet son of TimmetWatchers on the Wall: Benjen, Ice MaulFacebook: Brienne (Lots of write-ins for this one), Gendry smith and kings bastardWho poisoned the locusts?Reddit: Benjen Stark, Don't care. Fuck Meereen, Donald J. Trump, Drogon, Euron Greyjoy, Harzoo, Harzoo?, Quentyn Martell, Reznak mo Reznak, shaykayazazaz lo podoroqaqaq, Syrio, Voltron, Tywin prior to his death. Long con in action, Who cares?Watchers on the Wall: Barristan Selmy, Brown Ben Plumm, Hodor, probably fucking moon boy for all I know, Poizdar do LoqustASOIAF Facebook: i don't know the fucking meereen names which one was the shavepate is that skahaz my guess is the shavepate he’s sketchy af ConclusionThank you again for participating in the poll. It was a lot of fun to see all the results and to share them with you. And please feel free to dig through the analytics and come up with more analysis on your own. Next week, I'll bring part 2 (Plot points, ASOIAF History and the future of the story theories) to you all. Thanks for your patience, and please let me know ways that I can improve for next year! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bent branch Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Very interesting results. It seems for the most part people think very similar things no matter which venue they are using.However, the result I find the most interesting is how many people believe Aegon to be the son of Rhaegar and Elia and the number of people who think Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne. Consistently across the fandoms more people thought Lemore was Ashara than thought Aegon was Rhaegar's son. The reason I find this interesting is that I think if Lemore does indeed turn out to be Ashara, than Aegon will certainly prove to be the son of Rhaegar. This is pretty much the only reason for Lemore to be Ashara in this story. Obviously there are some people who can think of a reason for Ashara to be in the story, yet at the same time still thinking Aegon could be a fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Viserys Targaryen IV Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I am still amazed how may people don't think Tyrion is a Targ bastard.The Valonqar answer surprises me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon's Queen Consort Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The Valonqar answer surprises me as well.Methinks that Jaime being the one is the most obvious answer of them all.What amazes me is how many people cannot see who Jon's parents are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Viserys Targaryen IV Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Methinks that Jaime being the one is the most obvious answer of them all.What amazes me is how many people cannot see who Jon's parents are.Jaime seems to me TOO obvious an answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7-KG Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think the idea of Davos being Azor Ahai seems very unlikely, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon's Queen Consort Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Jaime seems to me TOO obvious an answerOnly after a certain point during Dance. Tyrion is screaming "I am her villain" since AGOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7-KG Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm kinda surprised the number of people who don't believe in the Tyrion Targaryen theory surpasses those who believe. I must say i find the theory ridiculous, but i really thought more believed in it because of its popularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Syster Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The write in answers are gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kienn Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Who the fuck voted on Davos as Azor Ahai? Well he does want to stab Melissa Nissa in the heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7-KG Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well he does want to stab Melissa Nissa in the heart.Oh yeah, she is his wife now that i remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Viserys Targaryen IV Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Only after a certain point during Dance. Tyrion is screaming "I am her villain" since AGOT.I felt the second they pointed out the Cersei was the younger twin it was a red herring for the little brother Thanks to god, the number of people who don't believe in the Tyrion Targaryen bullshit surpasses those who believe.You know what people vote for, and what GRRM actually does are two different things right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon's Queen Consort Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I felt the second they pointed out the Cersei was the younger twin it was a red herring for the little brother I think that this was a clue and when I became sure that Jaime will be the killer at the end. But her enemy being Tyrion was all over the place since the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Viserys Targaryen IV Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think that this was a clue and when I became sure that Jaime will be the killer at the end. But her enemy being Tyrion was all over the place since the beginning. Well, I am one of the very small minority that voted for Stannis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Few of the Fingers Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm sad not to see more Tommen as Valonqar, as well as for the few amounts of Wenda the White Fawn as Lemore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnmaskedLurker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well, I am one of the very small minority that voted for StannisI think there are very few clues for who is valonqar -- so to me, it makes most sense that it will be Jaime, but if it is Tommen (or UnTommen) or Stannis, I won't be that thrown off. But to me, Tyrion seems like the obvious red herring as the valonquar -- with Jaime as the real one. Tyrion as the biological son of Aerys is a different matter. As you know, there are a lot of fairly strong clues in favor of this theory, so that poll result is more concerning. I have posted a discussion of why I think so few people have been convinced by that theory in the A+J=T thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Viserys Targaryen IV Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think there are very few clues for who is valonqar -- so to me, it makes most sense that it will be Jaime, but if it is Tommen (or UnTommen) or Stannis, I won't be that thrown off. But to me, Tyrion seems like the obvious red herring as the valonquar -- with Jaime as the real one. Tyrion as the biological son of Aerys is a different matter. As you know, there are a lot of fairly strong clues in favor of this theory, so that poll result is more concerning. I have posted a discussion of why I think so few people have been convinced by that theory in the A+J=T thread.Oh, I agree. I personally put A+J=T @ 95%, while Stannis as the valonqar @ 55%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monoman32 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well, I am one of the very small minority that voted for StannisStannis will most likely never leave the North and Cersei will never go to the North so I find it highly unlikely that they will ever intersect again. Plus strangling somebody to death is not a Stannis thing to do and that type of murder is a more emotional and personable murder(I watch too much Criminal Minds). Jaime,IMO, is the only one that makes sense. It would make for a great story as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Viserys Targaryen IV Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Stannis will most likely never leave the North and Cersei will never go to the North so I find it highly unlikely that they will ever intersect again. Plus strangling somebody to death is not a Stannis thing to do and that type of murder is a more emotional and personable murder(I watch too much Criminal Minds). Jaime,IMO, is the only one that makes sense. It would make for a great story as wellI see Stannis taking Winterfell, then taking Manderly's fleet south to King's Landing and hitting the Red Keep. Cersei lights her Wild Fire stash and Stannis chokes her out while surrounded by flames... and they both die.Plus, the whole Jaime has one hand thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monoman32 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I see Stannis taking Winterfell, then taking Manderly's fleet south to King's Landing and hitting the Red Keep. Cersei lights her Wild Fire stash and Stannis chokes her out while surrounded by flames... and they both die.Plus, the whole Jaime has one hand thing....I can't see Manderly giving his fleet to Stannis and I can't see the North going south with him. The South will already be busy with fAegon, putting Stannis in there too doesn't make much sense. Plus that ending with be a bit disappointing for both Stannis and Cersei if what you said actually happens. Jaime has a golden hand that he could use or he could just the Hand of the King necklace that Tyrion strangled Shae with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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